April 20, 2016
2016年第一季度
4 在云端：经济的太阳温暖旧金山湾区 8 12 16 20 24 32 38 42 46
这里是旧金山湾区房地产市场2016年第一季度的销售情况，还有之前10年的第四季度销 售数据回顾。 Bay Area: 10-Year Overview of Q1 Homes Sold Q1 '06
Q1 '07
Q1 '08
Q1 '09
Q1 '10
Q1 '11
Q1 '12
Q1 '13
Q1 '14
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
2,063
1,684
1,310
2,892
2,288
2,457
2,553
2,290
1,916
2,011
1,939
EAST BAY
535
445
338
315
365
469
498
439
430
381
378
MARIN COUNTY
410
427
281
223
349
385
434
431
413
381
334
NAPA COUNTY
245
220
140
244
263
290
313
268
212
258
235
SAN FRANCISCO (SFH)
494
461
221
333
468
501
535
499
468
428
352
SAN FRANCISCO (CONDOS)
484
458
319
216
372
479
485
507
548
476
432
SILICON VALLEY
485
491
329
238
391
411
445
432
393
366
312
1,037
885
621
1,028
921
978
1,156
979
893
807
867
97
81
75
84
88
103
114
104
95
85
92
133
147
132
122
167
182
220
223
180
197
228
59
46
34
18
64
52
50
61
56
56
68
REGION CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
SONOMA COUNTY SONOMA VALLEY LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH) LAKE TAHOE/TRUCKEE (CONDOS)
Copyright © Pacific Union. Source: BrokerMetrics / Terradatum, Inc. using data from SFARMLS, EBRD, BAREIS, MLSLSTINGS, TSIERRA, April 6, 2016.
Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.
在云端:
经济的太阳温暖旧金山湾区
作者：塞尔玛·海普（Selma Hepp），太平洋联合公司首席经济学家兼商业情报副总裁 美国经济稳固前进 我们处于一个信息过载的时代，这种说法太过轻描淡写。如果没有经济数据作为保障，我们在每日纷繁复杂的新闻中 也是只见树木不见树林。但是，经过今年不稳定的开局之后，我们现在可以有几分把握说我们正处在动荡隧道的另一 端，仰望2016年的经济前景。 国内与国际的迹象全都令人鼓舞。国家层面主要与就业相关。就业继续以超常速度增长；美国劳工部对新增就业与交 易额的最新调查显示，与经济衰退前的月份相比，二月获得新工作的人数增加了540万。同时，薪酬大幅度提高，刺激 了消费与服务行业。因此，依托国内消费者的行业与公司表现良好。 受强势美元与国际需求减退影响的商业表现不佳。但是从国际层面来看，风暴最终平息。美国的贸易伙伴传来利好消 息，原油价格趋于稳定。新兴市场似乎经受住了狂风暴雨的考验，资本波动性正在稳定下来。
旧金山湾区就业市场繁荣 旧金山湾区已成为国家经济复苏的明星。过去四年中，地区的经济优势来自于超常的就业增长，旧金山湾区仍然超越 了国内其他地区。去年当地新增就业岗位120,000个，大部分集中于技术与其他高收入行业。技术领域就业有一个重要 的优势，即具有较高的乘数率，这意味着其对当地经济的经济溢出高于其他类型的就业。就业增长也推动了房地产市 场的复苏，我们看到整个地区随之出现 了房价上扬。 就业对旧金山湾区的房地产市场异常重要，且就业增长仍在继续。实际上，自从经济复苏开始，2015年是地区就业增 长最强劲的一年。2016年开始减速，但如果就业增长保持当先的节奏，2016年将会是仅次于2015年的第二最佳年度。 但是，经济领域内各行业中所充斥的一个主题是标准化，这是经济周期的正常部分。标准化标志着市场走向成熟，最 近备受关注的对泡沫的担忧也有所缓和。 旧金山湾区经济的另一关键要素是该地区是创新中心且主要依赖风险投资。自从互联网公司坍塌后，2015年是硅谷接 受投资最多的一年，但最后一个季度投资下降，引发对未来能否获得创业基金的担忧。但是各方报告显示，风险投资 活动仍然较多，一些报告甚至表示风险投资机构正以15年来的最高速度进行融资。 有趣的是，风险投资活动的发展具有地域性，进入2016年后，旧金山湾区丧失了一些优势。最近一项有关旧金山湾区
技术与生命科学领域高管的调查显示，资本正在紧缩，投资者关注基本要素，寻找更加平衡的环境。投资者关注发展 到相对成熟阶段的初创公司。这可能是个好事，因为它消除了意料之中的某些波动性。尽管整体预期会在短期内重新 调整，但调查显示，高管们对创新的长期未来仍抱乐观态度。
股票市场的波动性是否会对消费者造成不利影响？ 鉴于第一季度股票市场与经济的波动性以及对其影响房地产市场的担忧，我们调查了太平洋联合公司房地产专家，请 他们估计这些变化会如何影响客户买卖房产的决定。 整体来说，由于第一季度的波动性，客户买卖房产的决定受到影响的比例（55%）略高于不受影响的比例（45%）。 此外，根据风险资本投资比率决定买卖房产的客户极为有限（19%）。而只有5%的客户由于波动性影响完全退出房地 产市场。 大多数房产买家与卖家都就职于技术行业，鉴于首次公开募股（IPO）对当地房地产市场的影响，就职于最近公开发 售股票的初创公司的客户比例同样令人关注。平均来说，有10%的客户在这类初创公司中工作。在太平洋联合公司受 访的专家中，有一半专家没有就职于首次公开募股公司的客户，四分之一的专家有20%或以上的客户就职于此类公 司。 但是，优先认股权（有或没有IPO）对于大多数近期交易的资金来源影响并不显著。大约五分之二的交易是现金交 易。经济富裕的个人或家庭——有先前出售房产所得的收益——是现金交易的主流（见表1）。优先认股权只占现金 交易中资金来源的1%（见表2）。 在按揭贷款的买家中，大约三分之一的头期款来自储蓄，另外四分之一来自个人财产，另外五分之一来自此前出售房 产的收益。家庭财产在交易中占13%。优先认股权与IPO在按揭贷款交易的头期款中只占7%。 但总而言之，太平洋联合公司大部分客户对于2016年旧金山湾区的房地产市场持乐观态度（54%），少部分客户略有 担忧（44%）。只有2%的客户表示不看好。
表1：近期交易的主要资金来源
35%
4%
36%
25%
All cash
Mortgaged with 20% down
Mortgaged with less than 20% down
Mortgaged with more than 20% down
表2：现金交易与分期付款交易的资金来源
60% 50%
50% 40%
35%
30%
24%
21% 20%
21%
13%
10% 1% 0%
25%
13% 6%
5%
Stock options from current employer
Family wealth
Personal wealth
Source of cash in all cash transactions
Sale of previous real estate assets
Savings
2%
Client worked for a company that had an IPO
Source of down-payment in mortgaged transactions
房地产市场前景 市场上必然会有一些预期的调整。总体而言，旧金山湾区会继续保持全国范围内最高的房价增长。在一些次级市场， 年度房价仍保持两位数的增长比率。 但是销量面临挑战，主要原因是市场上的房产数量紧缩。整个地区的房产前景并不一致，支付能力发挥着重要作用。 与去年相比，房价最高的地区销售量有所下滑，而其他能负担得起的地区房产销量增加。买家对竞争激烈的市场感到 疲倦，购买热情下滑。在一些房价较高的地区，例如旧金山与马林县，房产在市场上滞售的时间比去年延长。同样 的，初始挂牌价格的售价增加正在减缓，买家在进行竞标大战时更加谨慎。 太平洋联合公司的销售数字与市场整体趋势相似。一月与二月活跃度较低，随后三月份回升，销量从去年开始略有升 高。在过去的30个月中，太平洋联合公司挂牌上市的房产在2015年3月达到顶峰，共417处房产，现在较之当时下降了 13%。 可供出售的房产数量不足，这成为繁忙春季的最大障碍。在太平洋联合公司所运营的整个旧金山湾区内，可供出售的 房产数量比去年同期有所下降，下降幅度最大的是旧金山北部和东湾——分别下降了15%与13%。旧金山与东湾的房 产销量下降了大约3.5%。 虽然房价的增长趋势比前几个季度有所缓和，但有限的房产储量加之强劲的就业增长将继续对2016年第二季度的房价 施加压力。如前所述，标准化将深入房产市场，增值率将逐渐降低到一位数。即将到来的总统大选与持续的地理政治 风险将给市场带来不确定性，这可能会动摇由良好的就业市场与薪资增长所带来的积极的消费欲望。
2016年第一季度
Ellen Anderson Senior Vice President, Contra Costa County 925.743.9330 ellen.anderson@pacunion.com 101 Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526
pacificunion.cn
第一季度，康特科斯拉县的房地产活动进一步体现出标准化的趋势，平均售价稳定在去年第四季度的水平上，房产储 量增长了近50%。有额外的房产可供出售，这说明相比前几季度，本季度竞争的激烈程度有所缓和，市场逐渐向购房 者倾斜。 另有迹象表明，卖家不再掌握主动权，第一季度康特科斯拉县的房产平均售价低于挂牌售价，多方竞价的现象较少。 总之，由于即将到来的总统大选，股票市场将出现波动与不确定性，因此买家更加谨慎。很多年长的屋主将面积较大 的房产出售，以购买面积相对较小的家宅，或者退休离开加利福尼亚州，这给那些被市场据之门外的人提供了更多选 择。 预期：随着春天的到来，卖家会把握住这个传统的房产行业繁忙季，将有更多的房产投向市场。我们预计房价将随市 场行情的平衡而保持平稳，但由于当地繁荣的就业市场与较低的利率，房产需求仍然旺盛。
$1,300,000 $1,100,000
$1,093,500 $1,100,000
$1,185,000 $1,100,000
$1,110,000
$1,069,000
$1,125,000 $1,056,000 $1,099,000 $1,049,000 $1,051,000 $1,020,000 $1,010,000
$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
2.6 2.1
2.1
1.6
1.5
1.6 1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.1 0.7 0.6
0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
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50 43
45
38
40
34
35 30 25
28
25
20
19
19
18
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
23
24
Jul-15
Aug-15
28
31
21
15 10 5 0
Mar-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
50% 45%
45.3%
42.4%
44.7% 40.3%
40%
37.8%
41.1% 36.7%
35.5%
36.2%
36.9%
36.0%
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
32.9%
35%
33.5%
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
104% 102%
102.4%
101.6%
101.0%
101.7%
101.3% 99.8%
100%
99.3%
99.0%
99.5%
99.1%
98.9%
98% 96.0%
96%
94.2%
94% 92% 90%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Contra Costa County communities: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek.
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Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Alamo
$
45,328,525
$
73,164,050
61%
28
39
39%
31
44
42%
$ 1,414,050
$ 1,685,000
19%
Blackhawk
$
20,772,900
$
36,803,500
77%
13
19
46%
56
62
11%
$ 1,459,900
$ 1,550,000
6%
Danville
$ 137,453,351
$ 139,096,623
1%
118
109
-8%
27
39
44%
$ 1,077,500
$ 1,170,000
9%
Diablo
$
21,655,000
$
9,279,000
-57%
10
4
-60%
141
44
-69%
$ 1,877,500
$ 2,189,500
17%
Lafayette
$
71,970,761
$
67,540,622
-6%
51
43
-16%
38
39
3%
$ 1,340,000
$ 1,425,000
6%
Moraga
$
33,252,188
$
25,571,500
-23%
28
20
-29%
27
14
-48%
$ 1,159,500
$ 1,232,500
6%
Orinda
$
68,592,424
$
37,589,525
-45%
46
23
-50%
26
23
-12%
$ 1,351,700
$ 1,500,000
11%
Pleasant Hill
$
38,487,609
$
37,784,450
-2%
59
54
-8%
32
17
-47%
$
650,000
$
659,500
1%
San Ramon
$ 125,438,361
$
116,256,394
-7%
126
106
-16%
19
27
42%
$
980,000
$ 1,012,500
3%
Walnut Creek
$
$
93,037,308
25%
76
91
20%
27
26
-4%
$
913,500
$
6%
74,353,340
971,000
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.
2016年第一季度
Pam Hoffman Senior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay Region 510.339.6460 phoffman@pacunion.com 1900 Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611
pacificunion.cn
在2016年第一季度，东湾的购房者仍然远远多于卖房者，在不到两周的时间内，投入市场的房产很快就被抢购一空。这 引发了在过去几十年内十分普遍的竞标大战，定价合理且位于理想街区的房产——毗邻旧金山湾区捷运系统（BART） ，步行即可到达——最为抢手。价位在800,000到100万美元的房产也同样受欢迎。 连强烈的厄尔尼诺风暴都没有让买家退缩；在三月最多雨的一个周末，位于奥克兰最受欢迎的Montclair街区的房产仍然 吸引了70多位热切的参观者前来看房。由于条件良好的房产最受东湾的买家青睐，因此我们建议准备售房的屋主要深思 熟虑，确定最佳售价。 预期：随着春季的来临，我们预计东湾将有更多卖家利用市场将其房产挂牌上市，对于那些在过去几年中由于较低的 房产储量而受挫的买家而言，这可以减轻他们的压力。我们预计，只要就业市场保持繁荣，未来几年的房产需求量不 会下降。
$1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000
$900,000
$925,000
$915,000
$910,000 $918,500 $850,000
$865,000
$913,500
$925,000
$977,500 $877,500
$880,000
$875,000
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.5 1.3 1.1
1.2
1.1 0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.9 0.7
0.7
0.4
0.5 0.3 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.
pacificunion.cn
45
41
40 35 30 25 20
23
20 16
22 17
17
Jun-15
Jul-15
24 20
19
23
20
17
15 10 5 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the East Bay.
60% 50%
56.2% 50.1%
50.8%
50.1%
50.6%
51.4% 46.6%
42.6%
40%
46.3%
45.5% 39.6%
45.7% 37.9%
30% 20% 10% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.
118% 116%
115.7%
115.6%
115.2%
115.8%
114.9%
114%
114.7%
114.1% 112.7%
112%
112.3%
112.2% 110.8%
110.6%
110% 108% 106%
104.2%
104% 102% 100% 98%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.
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East Bay Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Alameda
$
47,352,697
$
58,158,984
23%
52
58
12%
23
27
17%
$
839,000
$
952,500
14%
Albany
$
7,170,000
$
16,339,888
128%
9
17
89%
11
16
45%
$
800,000
$
848,888
6%
Berkeley
$
82,636,400
$
86,234,300
4%
78
82
5%
25
26
4%
$
952,500
$
901,000
-5%
El Cerrito
$
17,335,888
$
23,510,300
36%
24
29
21%
23
31
35%
$
706,000
$
775,000
10%
Kensington
$
13,005,500
$
2,550,000
-80%
14
3
-79%
20
14
-30%
$
880,000
$
715,000
-19%
Oakland*
$ 163,364,963
$ 195,054,670
19%
186
181
-3%
26
26
0%
$
800,500
$
905,000
13%
Piedmont
$
$
-50%
18
8
-56%
34
18
-47%
$ 2,500,000
25%
39,154,005
19,748,000
$ 2,001,003
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities; *Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.
East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
8,861,375
-31%
34
22
-35%
44
26
-41%
$
381,000
$
410,525
8%
Over $500,000 $ 357,124,923
$ 392,734,767
10%
347
356
3%
23
26
13%
$
890,000
$
920,000
3%
$500,000 $1 million
$ 156,553,877
-7%
222
204
-8%
22
27
23%
$
757,500
$
761,000
0%
$ 236,180,890
25%
125
152
22%
25
24
-4%
$ 1,300,000
$ 1,276,000
-2%
Under $500,000
$
12,894,530
$ 167,940,848
Over $1 million $ 189,184,075
Q1 '16 $
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for SFH in the East Bay: Alameda, Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.
Oakland Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Neighborhood
Homes Sold Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Average Price % change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Montclair / Joaquin Miller
38
46
21%
$1,017,124
$1,103,225
8%
Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake
20
14
-30%
$975,663
$1,110,892
14%
Rockridge / Claremont
23
21
-9%
$1,443,677
$2,519,108
74%
Glenview / Oakmore
13
15
15%
$911,834
$1,038,143
14%
Laurel / Dimond
13
12
-8%
$593,423
$676,833
14%
Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights
24
8
-67%
$736,607
$813,462
10%
Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline
5
4
-20%
$1,188,600
$1,287,000
8%
Temescal / Piedmont Ave.
9
9
0%
$913,556
$925,111
1%
Source: EBRD, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.
2016年第一季度
Brent Thomson President, Marin County 415.383.1900 brent.thomson@pacunion.com 575 Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941
pacificunion.cn
在典型的季节性模式之后，2016年第一季度，马林县一月与二月的销售速度放缓，这主要是由于市场上的房产数量不 足，而非购房者的需求降低。三月房产储量开始增加，但厄尔尼诺风暴对房产活动的阻碍大于往常。从去年第一季度 开始至今，挂牌上市的房产数量已降低10%，这说明房产储量会持续紧张。 米尔谷、肯特菲尔德、罗斯与蒂伯龙依然是广受青睐的社区，不乏有负担得起现金购房的买家。定价在100万美元到 150万美元的房产最受买家欢迎，这个价格区间内的很多房产都接受了多方竞价。 预期：随着天空放晴，春季来临，我们预计马林县会有新的房产挂牌上市。与过去几年一样，我们预计第二季度房产 活动将继续保持活跃，到夏季有所放缓，因为夏季买卖双方将开始考虑安排度假而非房地产。
$1,300,000
$1,160,000
$1,201,908 $1,175,000 $1,112,000 $1,100,000 $1,056,000 $1,055,000
$1,175,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
$1,150,000
$1,125,000
$1,150,000
$965,000
$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
2.6
2.3
2.3 2.0
2.1
1.6
1.6 1.3
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.8 1.6
1.4 1.0
1.1
0.6
0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
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90 78
80 70 59
60 50
56
51
47
40
38
38
Jun-15
Jul-15
62
57 48
54
54 45
30 20 10 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
50% 45%
43.7%
43.6%
42.4% 37.0%
40%
39.4% 36.6%
35%
34.9% 31.1%
30.2%
31.4%
30.7%
30%
33.9%
26.7%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
104% 102%
102.5% 100.8%
100.6%
100.2%
100% 98.3%
97.8%
98% 95.7%
96%
96.1%
96.5%
95.8%
95.9%
Jan-16
Feb-16
95.1%
94.8%
94% 92% 90%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Marin County communities: Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon.
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Marin County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Belvedere
$
33,111,500
$
20,790,000
-37%
8
6
-25%
84
131
56%
$ 3,225,000
$ 3,512,500
9%
Corte Madera
$
24,509,000
$
12,890,000
-47%
20
9
-55%
32
36
13%
$ 1,055,000
$ 1,365,000
29%
Fairfax
$
3,867,500
$
10,964,300
183%
5
12
140%
19
57
200%
$
$
830,000
11%
Greenbrae
$
10,221,000
$
13,029,000
27%
6
7
17%
26
16
-38%
$ 1,682,000
$ 1,900,000
13%
Kentfield
$
41,319,450
$
17,373,000
-58%
17
6
-65%
52
34
-35%
$ 2,115,000
$ 1,737,500
-18%
Larkspur
$
14,759,592
$
20,911,700
42%
8
13
63%
52
80
54%
$ 1,813,500
$ 1,500,000
-17%
Mill Valley
$
97,216,515
$
56,368,800
-42%
56
38
-32%
51
62
22%
$ 1,422,500
$ 1,345,000
-5%
Novato
$
86,829,318
$
87,264,065
1%
95
91
-4%
66
67
2%
$
$
4%
Ross
$
19,775,000
$
24,625,000
25%
4
5
25%
45
47
4%
$ 4,862,500
$ 2,735,000
San Anselmo
$
24,630,500
$
21,441,000
-13%
21
19
-10%
37
37
0%
$
900,000
$
965,000
7%
San Rafael
$
84,194,006
$
94,579,940
12%
87
81
-7%
52
46
-12%
$
840,000
$ 1,018,000
21%
Sausalito
$
15,375,000
$
27,955,000
82%
9
11
22%
47
44
-6%
$ 1,500,000
$ 2,595,000
73%
Tiburon
$
51,739,815
$
52,162,000
1%
19
15
-21%
56
69
23%
$ 2,700,000
$ 2,000,000
-26%
750,000
850,000
881,000
-44%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.
2016年第一季度
Linda Carroll Regional Executive, Napa County 707.251.8805 linda.carroll@pacunion.com 944 Main Street | Napa, CA 94559
pacificunion.cn
纳帕县2016年第一季度的房地产活动与去年同一时期大体相同。一月与二月销售放缓，三月份虽然遭受强烈的厄尔尼 诺风暴，但销售量开始回升。尽管房产储量比前几季度更加紧张，但市场开始趋向平衡，卖家不再具有旧金山湾区其 他几个地区的卖家优势。 同样地，竞标大战日益冷却。售价在400,000到500,000的房产有时能吸引多方竞价，但前提是定价合理且房产的状况良 好。与该地区的其他地方不同，纳帕县的偶发事件仍然是无法改变的事实，因此卖家希望在寻找下一处房产的过程中 继续住在当前的家宅里。 预期：随着春季万物复苏，纳帕县的房产会具有额外的吸引力，因此我们预计第二季度会有更多屋主将房产挂牌上 市。北部大面积的房产将在四月和五月投向市场，这段时间是典型的房地产行业的繁忙时节。
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000
$633,000 $586,250
$559,750
$600,000
$630,250
$620,000
$655,000
$685,000 $595,500
$571,316
$650,000 $649,750 $579,500
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.
6.1
5.7
5.1 4.1
4.1 3.2 3.1
2.7
3.6 2.9
3.4
3.3
2.9 2.4
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.1 1.1 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.
pacificunion.cn
120
112 102
100
91
93
80
92 71
71
72
85
72
95
80
60
60 40 20 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in Napa County.
30%
28.2%
25.4%
25.1%
25%
23.5%
24.2%
21.7%
21.5%
20%
17.2%
19.0%
28.2%
28.2%
Feb-16
Mar-16
20.4%
13.8%
15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.
98% 96%
95.9% 94.5%
96.5% 94.7%
95.8%
96.4% 94.2%
94%
95.0%
95.0%
94.6% 92.9%
92%
89.4%
90% 88% 86%
84.4%
84% 82% 80% 78%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.
pacificunion.cn
Napa County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
American Canyon
$
14,303,713
$
12,061,500
-16%
36
28
-22%
83
105
27%
$
383,500
$
422,000
10%
Angwin
$
919,000
$
6,194,913
574%
2
3
50%
196
134
-32%
$
459,500
$ 2,140,000
366%
Calistoga
$
13,607,300
$
24,570,000
81%
12
10
-17%
170
288
69%
$
648,000
$ 1,035,000
60%
Napa
$ 122,570,430
$ 141,600,197
16%
179
166
-7%
86
89
3%
$
525,000
$
622,500
19%
St. Helena
$
19,224,500
$
34,460,000
79%
15
24
60%
183
101
-45%
$
801,000
$ 1,195,000
49%
Yountville
$
13,256,421
$
2,533,333
-81%
7
3
-57%
180
87
-52%
$ 1,300,741
$
-35%
845,000
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.
Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Under $500,000
$
44,448,699
$
29,516,999
-34%
119
72
-39%
79
90
14%
$
387,000
$
424,500
10%
$500,000 $999,999
$
66,837,999
$
80,348,656
20%
101
115
14%
93
74
-20%
$
629,000
$
652,325
4%
$1 million - $3 million
$
51,037,921
$
66,212,288
30%
31
41
32%
188
137
-27%
$ 1,580,000
$ 1,550,000
-2%
Over $3 million $
31,456,295
$
48,045,000
53%
7
7
0%
176
462
163%
$ 3,380,750
$ 4,900,000
45%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.
2016年第一季度
Patrick Barber President 415.929.7100 patrick.barber@pacunion.com 1699 Van Ness Avenue | San Francisco, CA 94109
pacificunion.cn
在2016年第一季度，旧金山的房地产市场开始向卖家倾斜，但行情持续标准化。例如，和前几个季度相比，托管公寓 很少有多方竞价，特别是高端市场上的公寓。我们也注意到买家在谈判时的期望值更高；定价不合理或需要大修理的 房产可能会在市场上滞售较长时间。 但是，定价在200万美元以下且具有吸引力的独栋房产很快即可售卖，而售价在200万美元到300万美元的房产在本季度 末期开始受到冷落。尽管房产储量紧张的问题仍然困扰旧金山，但我们看到有更多的公寓挂牌上市，在一定程度上缓 解了这一问题。年轻富裕的技术型职人竞争有限的房产资源，这持续推动房价上涨，特别是一些符合买家购买力的公 寓。 预期：第一季度末期，房屋整修工与视察员几乎被全部预约，这说明卖家正准备在春季这个传统的繁忙季节将房产挂 牌上市。当地经济繁荣，且从历史角度来看利率一直较低，因此我们预计2016年旧金山的房地产市场将健康发展。
$1,500,000 $1,300,000
$1,307,500 $1,250,000
$1,400,000
$1,300,000 $1,280,000 $1,225,444
$1,405,000 $1,270,000 $1,155,000
$1,275,000 $1,201,500
$1,355,000
$1,175,000
$1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.
$1,300,000 $1,100,000
$1,138,000 $1,105,000 $1,069,000
$1,139,000 $1,102,563 $1,050,000
$1,110,500 $1,020,000
$1,150,000 $1,115,000 $1,112,500 $1,100,000
$1,122,500
$900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.
pacificunion.cn
3.6 3.1
3.1 2.6
2.6 2.1
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.6
2.4 2.0
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.6 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.
3.6 3.1
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.6 2.1 1.6
1.9 1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.5 1.0
1.1 0.6 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.
50 43
45 40
34
35 30
30
27
26
Mar-15
Apr-15
25
28
29
Jul-15
Aug-15
29
28
29
Oct-15
Nov-15
31 25
24
20 15 10 5 0
May-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in San Francisco.
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50
44
45 40 35
31
34
36 32
30
28
29
Jun-15
Jul-15
46
36
34
27
32
27
25 20 15 10 5 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for condominiums sold in San Francisco.
45%
40.9%
40%
36.9%
38.4% 35.2%
35%
38.2% 35.1%
31.5%
36.0%
35.2%
33.2%
29.6%
28.8%
30%
24.6%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.
50% 45%
43.8%
39.9%
40%
39.2%
40.9% 38.2%
35%
35.0% 29.8%
30%
34.6% 30.9%
30.1%
25%
24.9%
24.5%
Dec-15
Jan-16
28.8%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.
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118%
116.4%
116% 114% 112% 110%
113.8%
112.7%
112.2% 110.8%
109.8%
109.6%
110.3%
110.3% 107.1%
108%
108.3%
107.0%
106%
104.7%
104% 102% 100% 98%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.
109.3%
110% 108%
109.1% 108.3%
108.4% 107.2%
108.2%
108.2%
106.5% 105.7%
106%
104.9% 104.0%
104%
102.7%
102%
101.9%
100% 98%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.
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1:
Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.
2:
Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.
3:
Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights,
Oceanview. 4:
Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.
5:
Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.
6:
Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.
7:
Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.
8:
Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill,
Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center. 9:
South of Market, Yerba Buena. 10:
Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach, Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood, Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.
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San Francisco Snapshot: SFH, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
District 1
$
66,338,150
$
61,772,500
-7%
34
29
-15%
22
35
59%
$
District 2
$
74,925,185
$
81,781,986
9%
68
65
-4%
28
32
14%
$ 1,075,000
$ 1,177,000
District 3
$
21,153,204
$
37,417,161
77%
23
33
43%
40
31
-23%
$
$
District 4
$
75,519,388
$
75,296,480
0%
53
48
-9%
45
25
-44%
District 5
$
157,107,331
$
117,225,930
-25%
65
47
-28%
25
30
District 6
$
6,007,000
$
9,805,000
63%
4
3
-25%
52
District 7
$
103,391,500
$
90,096,352
-13%
19
18
-5%
District 8
$
5,810,000
$
4,000,000
-31%
3
1
District 9
$
87,173,725
$
57,459,473
-34%
59
District 10
$
73,775,979
$
57,889,396
-22%
100
1,722,500
$
1,900,000
% change 10% 9%
1,050,000
24%
$ 1,250,000
$ 1,487,500
19%
20%
$
$
69
33%
$ 1,507,500
$ 2,830,000
88%
25
33
32%
$
$
3,625,000
-30%
-67%
27
18
-33%
$ 2,100,000
$ 4,000,000
90%
37
-37%
25
27
8%
$
1,400,000
$
1,420,000
71
-29%
43
39
-9%
$
717,500
$
810,000
845,000
2,100,000
5,200,000
2,277,700
8%
1% 13%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.
San Francisco Snapshot: Condos, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
42%
15
24
60%
30
21
-30%
$
1,200,000
District 1
$
19,009,500
$
26,926,000
District 2
$
8,165,000
$
8,245,000
1%
9
6
-33%
67
23
-66%
$
District 3
$
3,615,880
$
4,989,595
38%
7
8
14%
28
24
-14%
District 4
$
5,571,000
$
3,398,000
-39%
9
5
-44%
24
56
District 5
$
92,433,119
$
76,378,988
-17%
74
58
-22%
29
District 6
$
54,951,256
$
57,828,371
5%
52
48
-8%
District 7
$
94,779,401
$
76,048,650
-20%
57
39
District 8
$
85,249,862
$
66,093,526
-22%
64
District 9
$
212,958,175
$
209,768,851
-1%
District 10
$
6,202,250
$
7,165,837
16%
Q1 '16
% change
1,112,500
-7%
805,000
$ 1,400,000
74%
$
495,000
$
600,000
21%
133%
$
600,000
$
650,000
8%
36
24%
$
1,154,444
$
1,260,000
9%
34
41
21%
$
944,500
-32%
23
30
30%
$
1,603,000
$
1,665,000
56
-13%
46
32
-30%
$ 1,020,000
$
905,000
180
177
-2%
40
43
8%
$
1,047,500
$
1,095,000
9
11
22%
43
42
-2%
$
721,000
$
630,000
$
$ 1,197,500
27% 4% -11% 5% -13%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.
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San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: SFH, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
-38%
173
104
-40%
43
36
-16%
Under $1 million
$
132,497,157
$
82,027,013
$1 million - $3 million
$
349,555,305
$
346,065,413
-1%
217
214
-1%
27
29
7%
Over $3 million $
189,149,000
$
164,651,852
-13%
38
34
-11%
27
37
37%
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
807,500
4%
$ 1,465,000
$ 1,496,685
2%
$
$
$
775,000
4,580,500
$
3,925,000
-14%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.
San Francisco Price Range Snapshot: Condos, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Under $1 million
$
152,378,493
$
140,568,396
-8%
210
186
-11%
41
43
5%
$1 million - $2 million
$
294,077,804
$
284,839,422
-3%
215
207
-4%
31
34
10%
Over $2 million $
136,479,146
$
111,435,000
-18%
51
39
-24%
36
29
-19%
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
775,000
6%
$ 1,310,000
$ 1,345,000
3%
$
$
5%
$
732,750
2,480,000
$
2,600,000
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.
2016年第一季度
David Barca Vice President, Silicon Valley 650.314.7200 dbarca@pacunion.com 1706 El Camino Real, Suite 220 | Menlo Park CA 94025
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硅谷市场在第一季度的起步较迟缓，比一月与二月的平均发展更为缓慢。但到了三月，伴随着降雨，房地产市场的大 门开启，销售量迅猛上涨，弥补了前两个月的不足。定价合理且位于理想街区的房地产普遍受到多方竞价，但一些买 家仍在观望，可能是受股票市场以及当地技术公司裁员与即将更大规模裁员的流言的困扰。 即使房产储量增多，但由于需求旺盛，房价仍在持续上升。与过去几年一样，第一季度硅谷有三分之一的房产未投入 当地上市房地产综合信息服务网（MLS），这有助有卖家保留隐私，但不能保证他们得到最佳的售价。 预期：根据三月繁忙的销售节奏，我们预计接下来将会是一个兴旺的春季，这是房地产市场传统的繁忙季节。盛夏之 前，房价将继续上涨，当地的卖家有望利用这个良好的环境。
$3,600,000
$3,280,000
$3,100,000 $2,800,000
$2,665,000
$2,600,000
$2,700,000 $2,625,000
$2,700,000
$2,750,000
$2,750,000
$2,612,500
$2,641,500 $2,500,000
$2,675,000
$2,800,000
$2,100,000 $1,600,000 $1,100,000 $600,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
3.6
Mar-16
3.2
3.1
2.8 2.5
2.6
2.1
2.1 1.6
Feb-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
2.2 1.8
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.1 0.6 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these SIlicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
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45 40
37
39
35 30
30 26
25 19
20
21
22
20
23
24
24 19
18
15 10 5 0
50% 45%
Mar-15
Apr-15
45.3%
44.0%
May-15
Jun-15
42.0%
40%
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
43.5%
41.5% 36.2%
35%
30.3%
30%
32.8% 28.5%
28.4%
26.1%
25% 18.8%
20%
20.2%
15% 10% 5% 0%
108% 106%
Mar-15
106.1%
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
104.2%
104.4%
104.7%
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
102.5%
103.2%
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
106.5% 104.0%
104.9% 103.0%
104% 102%
99.4%
100% 98%
98.4% 96.7%
96% 94% 92% 90%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these Silicon Valley communities: Atherton, Los Altos (excluding County area), Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park (excluding east of U.S. 101), Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Woodside.
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Silicon Valley Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Atherton
$
87,730,000
$
78,357,000
-11%
11
13
18%
72
31
-57%
$
Los Altos*
$
185,806,000
$
103,919,650
-44%
60
35
-42%
15
11
-27%
$ 2,800,000
$ 2,725,000
-3%
Los Altos Hills
$
121,482,500
$
47,461,000
-61%
24
13
-46%
41
60
46%
$
$
3,660,000
0%
Menlo Park**
$
118,527,000
$
121,493,500
3%
46
49
7%
19
21
11%
$ 2,562,500
$ 2,500,000
-2%
Palo Alto
$
177,638,200
$
182,120,588
3%
58
61
5%
21
20
-5%
$
$
2,500,000
-4%
Portola Valley
$
24,866,000
$
29,381,000
18%
8
9
13%
37
34
-8%
$ 2,580,500
$ 2,700,000
5%
Woodside
$
49,302,000
$
51,350,000
4%
16
12
-25%
82
78
-5%
$ 2,575,000
$ 4,000,000
55%
7,000,000
3,650,000
2,600,000
$
4,600,000
-34%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected Silicon Valley cities. *Excludes County area **Excludes east of U.S. 101
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$1,900,000 $1,700,000 $1,500,000
$1,575,000 $1,550,000 $1,530,000 $1,501,000
$1,600,000 $1,400,000
$1,778,000
$1,775,000
$1,800,000
$1,688,000 $1,590,000
$1,650,000 $1,514,000
$1,300,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000 $500,000 $300,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
3.1
2.8
2.6 2.1
1.1
1.8
1.6
1.6 0.9
1.1
1.0
0.9
May-15
Jun-15
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.2 0.9
0.8
0.6 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
40 34
35 30 25
26
25 21
21
21
21
20
22
20
19
16
14
15
25
10 5 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
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60%
53.3%
50.8%
47.2%
50%
50.0% 46.6% 42.0%
43.4%
48.5% 43.0%
36.7%
40%
37.0%
35.9%
30%
22.8%
20% 10% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
112%
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
105.3%
105.3%
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
110.6%
110% 108%
107.8%
107.3%
106.7%
106.7%
106% 104% 102%
100.9%
101.7%
103.0%
102.5%
Dec-15
Jan-16
102.0%
101.0%
100% 98% 96%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in these San Mateo County communities: Burlingame (excluding Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center), Hillsborough, and San Mateo (excluding the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area).
Mid-Peninsula Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Burlingame*
$
63,710,055
$
46,126,500
-28%
35
22
-37%
26
22
-15%
$ 1,760,000
$ 1,950,000
11%
Hillsborough
$
105,139,000
$
68,768,500
-35%
24
17
-29%
72
46
-36%
$ 4,067,500
$ 3,500,000
-14%
San Mateo**
$
118,595,850
$
113,203,378
-5%
84
81
-4%
18
18
0%
$ 1,281,250
$ 1,310,000
2%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in selected San Mateo County cities. * Excludes Ingold Millsdale Industrial Center ** Excludes the North Shoreview/Dore Cavanaugh area
2016年第一季度
Rick Laws Senior Vice President, Sonoma County 707.547.3800 rick.laws@pacunion.com 3333 Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403
pacificunion.cn
索诺玛县第一季度的房产售价中值攀升到550,000美元以上，这是2015年的上限。买家需求仍然旺盛，售价150万美元以 下且具有吸引力的房产有多方竞价。在一些高端市场，例如希尔兹堡，买家在本季度初期犹豫不决，对售价不满，这 可能是担忧技术行业衰退，全球经济疲软。但到了三月，买家的情绪趋于平稳，似乎更加愿意交易。 单层房产与带有姻亲单元的房产在索诺玛县的买家中间尤其受欢迎，定价最合理的房产能迅速签合同出售。新的房产 储量仍然匮乏，而15%到20%的交易在上市房地产综合信息服务网（MLS）之外达成。这些市场外的交易能够帮助卖家 减少在家中招待大批买家参观的麻烦，又可进行多方竞价，但一般情况下无法保证最佳售价。 预期：由于买家开始担忧经济问题，我们预计春季的房产需求会更高。第一季度末期，更多房产挂牌上市，这会带来 一个繁荣的第二季度。
$600,000 $550,000 $500,000
$510,000
$536,000 $545,000
$546,000
$545,000
Jun-15
Jul-15
$541,000
$541,500
$529,750
$526,750
Oct-15
Nov-15
$549,450
$555,000
Dec-15
Jan-16
$572,990 $542,000
$450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.
3.1 2.6
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.1 1.7
2.1
2.0
1.7
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.
pacificunion.cn
90
81
80 70
73 66
63 56
60
56
59
60
60
60
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
79 69
65
50 40 30 20 10 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma County.
50% 43.0%
45% 40%
36.4%
36.7%
35%
34.4%
35.1%
34.6% 31.4%
30%
30.9% 28.1%
28.0%
29.2%
28.6% 25.2%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.
99.6%
100% 99%
99.5%
98.5%
97.9%
98%
97.7%
96.9%
96.7%
97% 96%
96.7%
96.4%
95.4%
95.1%
95%
93.8%
94%
93.9%
93% 92% 91% 90%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.
pacificunion.cn
Sonoma County Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Cloverdale
$
16,340,600
$
19,436,200
19%
27
33
36%
105
89
-15%
$
409,500
$
456,000
11%
Healdsburg
$
37,551,310
$
50,797,550
35%
33
45
36%
85
117
38%
$
830,000
$
829,000
0%
Petaluma
$
61,008,440
$
72,751,800
19%
104
100
-4%
63
58
-8%
$
518,250
$
606,500
17%
Rohnert Park
$
19,026,100
$
24,701,800
30%
43
50
16%
55
79
44%
$
435,000
$
478,000
10%
Santa Rosa
$
192,711,128
$ 204,527,475
6%
350
343
-2%
74
67
-9%
$
467,850
$
525,000
12%
Sebastopol
$
21,869,457
$
29,320,180
34%
29
39
34%
91
84
-8%
$
665,000
$
710,000
7%
Windsor
$
24,526,394
$
36,244,100
48%
45
66
47%
63
67
6%
$
501,000
$
527,000
5%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.
Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
Median Price
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Under $1 million
$ 375,273,221
$ 435,687,346
16%
740
777
5%
74
72
-3%
$
$1 million and over
$ 109,141,125
$ 147,157,131
35%
67
90
34%
141
104
-26%
$ 1,425,000
477,250
Q1 '16
% change
534,000
12%
$ 1,282,500
-10%
$
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.
2016年第一季度
Jill Silvas Regional Executive, Sonoma Valley 707.939.9500 jill.silvas@pacunion.com 135 West Napa Street, Suite 200 | Sonoma, CA 95476
第一季度索诺玛谷买家充足，但市场上可供买家选择的房产数量非常有限。新房产挂牌上市，可能第二天就被签约出 售——特别是定价不到100万美元的房产。尽管遭遇多雨天气，但买家仍然热情不减，在本季度末期，挂牌上市的新房 产涌进市场。与往常一样，很多卖家等到初春时节将房产挂牌上市，结果发现他们要与同样运用此战略的卖家同台竞 争。 过去几年房价的急剧增长让买家叫苦不迭，目前价格开始稳定下来。尽管利率与其他经济指标大多呈现积极状态，但 是第一季度股票市场的波动可能让一些购房者丧失兴趣。不过很显然，其他人则认为投资房地产市场比投资股市更安 全，并采取了相应的行动。 预期：第二季度可能成为本年度房产市场最活跃的季节。如果房产储量继续增加，房价趋于正常化，我们可能会迎来 一个比现在更加平衡的市场。第二居所与度假屋的销量对索诺玛谷的房地产具有实质影响，可随意支配的收入将继续 在整个繁荣市场中发挥作用。
$800,000
$756,000
$700,000 $600,000
$637,000
$759,000
$740,000
$712,500 $665,000
$640,000
$572,000
$675,000
$672,150
$633,000
$665,000
$575,000
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.
3.9
4.1 3.6
3.3
3.2
3.1 2.6
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.3
2.2
1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.
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100 85
90 80 70
66
64
60
65 53
50
68 60
58
Aug-15
Sep-15
87 71
69
61
47
40 30 20 10 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches sold in Sonoma Valley.
35%
32.2%
32.3%
31.8% 28.4%
27.9%
30%
24.9%
23.5%
25%
32.5% 27.7%
25.0%
25.2% 21.8%
20% 15.0%
15% 10% 5% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.
104% 102%
101.4%
100.5%
98.8%
100% 98%
96.7%
95.4%
96%
98.5%
97.9%
96.7%
96.5%
95.9%
93.5%
94%
91.0%
92%
89.4%
90% 88% 86% 84% 82%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.
pacificunion.cn
Sonoma Valley Snapshot: Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Glen Ellen
$
4,235,125
$
7,711,000
82%
6
7
17%
91
117
29%
$
566,000
$
798,000
41%
Kenwood
$
2,733,500
$
4,230,000
55%
4
5
25%
82
112
37%
$
527,500
$
760,000
44%
Sonoma
$
56,247,765
$
69,150,950
23%
74
80
8%
73
65
-11%
$
554,500
$
640,000
15%
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma Valley cities.
2016年第一季度
Sally Gardner Regional Executive, Tahoe/Truckee Tahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee 530.587.7098 | Squaw Valley 530.584.6282 sally.gardner@pacunion.com
pacificunion.cn
第一季度内华达山脉的降雪使游客都集中到太浩湖/特拉基地区，显著推动了该地的房产销量。一月与二月的房产储量紧 张，三月份有较多房产投向市场。房产的平均售价仍未回升到十年前的最高点，这使聪明的买家有大量的机会进行讨价 还价，尤其是考虑到利率仍然走低。 平均来看，房产售价比挂牌售价略低几个百分点，很少出现竞标大战。卖家需要对房产准确定价以确保其迅速出售；不切 实际过高定价的房产往往在市场上滞售几个月。太浩湖的房地产市场主要依托于来自旧金山湾区购买第二居所的买家， 今年持续的经济繁荣会继续推动房产销售。 预期：随着厄尔尼诺风暴减退和积雪融化，我们预计第二季度会有更多房产投向市场。买家会利用有利的市场行情以确 保假期有处可去，因此房产储量的增加会推动销售量的回升。
$800,000 $700,000
$727,500 $661,500
$650,000
$600,000
$535,000
$530,500
Apr-15
May-15
$560,000
$585,000
$577,500
$605,500
$579,000
$550,000
$650,000
$595,000
$500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
$450,000 $400,000
$427,500
$356,000
$339,000
$350,000 $300,000
$391,500
$385,000
$362,500
$375,000 $335,000
$330,000
$321,000
Dec-15
Jan-16
$361,900
$359,500
Feb-16
Mar-16
$281,000
$250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Median sales price for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
8.6
9.1 8.1 7.1
8.2 6.8
7.1 6.3
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.8
6.4
6.1
5.6
4.7
5.1
4.7
4.1 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
25.1 19.3
20.1
15.1
10.1
12.5 9.4
9.4
12.2 9.0
11.0
11.6
11.4
11.8
8.3
7.7
6.3 5.1
0.1
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
200
183
180 160
148 130
140 120
102
100
95
83
80
80
81
89
98
114
111
59
60 40 20 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for single-family homes sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
200 173
180 160 140 120
112
100
107
100
107
122
119
114
103
92
73
80 60
55
42
40 20 0
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Average days on market for condominiums sold in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
20% 18% 16% 14% 12%
14.3%
14.9%
13.6%
12.0%
12.1%
12.5%
Aug-15
Sep-15
17.2%
17.2%
Feb-16
Mar-16
14.6%
13.4% 11.2%
11.3%
Nov-15
Dec-15
9.5%
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
14% 12.2% 9.7%
10% 8%
11.3%
11.3%
12%
7.8%
7.7%
7.3%
8.5%
7.7%
6.3%
6.1%
6%
6.6%
6.6%
4% 2% 0%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
98% 96%
96.5% 95.0%
94%
92.1%
92%
92.9%
91.5%
93.3%
93.4%
93.5%
93.4%
90.6%
91.3%
91.6%
Feb-16
Mar-16
90% 88%
86.8%
86% 84% 82% 80%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
96.5%
97% 96% 95%
94.3%
94.3%
95.9%
96.1%
95.6%
95.1%
94.1%
93.9%
94% 92.8%
93%
93.4%
91.6%
92% 91%
90.2%
90% 89% 88% 87%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Sales price as % of original price (including adjustments) for condominiums under contract in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
pacificunion.cn
Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: SFH, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Alpine Meadows
$
5,774,500
$
2,455,000
-57%
5
3
-40%
104
97
-7%
$
1,080,000
$
750,000
-31%
Donner Lake
$
2,254,000
$
2,840,000
26%
5
4
-20%
578
124
-79%
$
435,000
$
540,000
24%
Donner Summit
$
463,000
$
6,359,000
1273%
1
12
1100%
6
204
3300%
$
463,000
$
512,500
11%
Martis Valley
$
55,112,991
$
62,171,551
13%
23
25
9%
178
168
-6%
$ 1,953,000
$ 1,600,000
-18%
North Lake Tahoe
$
39,285,000
$
36,970,560
-6%
32
42
31%
133
101
-24%
$
642,500
$
545,000
-15%
Northstar
$
600,000
$
12,847,000
2041%
1
7
600%
291
289
-1%
$
600,000
$ 1,740,000
190%
Squaw Valley
$
$
5,690,000
n/a
0
2
n/a
0
39
n/a
$
Tahoe City
$
18,052,000
$
18,136,500
0%
13
15
15%
110
88
-20%
$
Tahoe Donner
$
27,296,900
$
41,637,818
53%
41
60
46%
85
104
22%
Truckee
$
62,602,551
$
72,375,551
16%
39
41
5%
128
140
West Shore
$
43,077,825
$
20,293,400
-53%
37
17
-54%
210
142
-
$
2,845,000
n/a
815,000
$
849,500
4%
$
580,000
$
634,950
9%
9%
$
594,481
$
730,000
23%
-32%
$
545,000
$
720,000
32%
-
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
Lake Tahoe/Truckee Snapshot: Condos, Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015 Sales Volume Q1 '15
Alpine Meadows
$
Donner Lake
$
Donner Summit
$
North Lake Tahoe
Q1 '16
Homes Sold
Avg. Days on Market
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Q1 '15
Q1 '16
% change
Median Price Q1 '15
$
-
n/a
1
0
n/a
32
0
n/a
$
$
-
n/a
0
0
n/a
0
0
n/a
$
165,000
$
-
n/a
1
0
n/a
417
0
n/a
$
$
5,470,000
$
3,822,810
-30%
15
13
-13%
58
128
121%
Northstar
$
5,207,000
$
6,943,100
33%
12
14
17%
119
134
Squaw Valley
$
4,321,500
$
3,443,000
-20%
8
9
13%
369
Tahoe City
$
2,294,000
$
2,730,310
19%
6
8
33%
Tahoe Donner
$
2,196,500
$
4,361,000
99%
6
14
Truckee
$
3,948,500
$
5,638,000
43%
7
West Shore
$
n/a
0
330,000 -
-
$
-
Q1 '16
% change
$
-
n/a
$
-
n/a
165,000
$
-
n/a
$
335,000
$
290,000
-13%
13%
$
385,000
$
397,500
3%
285
-23%
$
517,250
$
360,000
-30%
101
126
25%
$
339,500
$
330,000
-3%
133%
39
61
56%
$
424,750
$
333,000
-22%
10
43%
111
127
14%
$
342,500
$
487,000
42%
0
n/a
0
0
n/a
$
330,000 -
-
$
-
n/a
Source: Terradatum, April 6, 2016. Data is for condominiums in the Lake Tahoe/Truckee region.
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