RESEARCH
The use of drones in last mile deliveries is a tantalising prospect, but is it all pie in the sky? OPI’s Michelle Sturman finds out…
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nmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) or unmanned aerial systems (UAS), better known as drones, are already used in the military, medical, agriculture, construction and media sectors, but their application for last mile deliveries is still in its infancy. However, some of the world’s biggest tech, logistics and retail firms are running trials now. The widespread adoption of drone deliveries could provide many benefits for businesses, especially in what is often considered shipping’s Achilles’ heel – the last mile. UAS shipments are typically made in under 30 minutes; are generally operationally cheaper to run than other modes of transport; and can overcome issues such as traffic jams. A narrower delivery window also potentially reduces the number of missed drops. Gartner Senior Director Analyst Pedro Pacheco says autonomous drones offer higher speeds and a cheaper cost per mile than vans for the last mile, with operational expenses at least 70% lower. The Potential for Advanced Air Mobility Beyond the Congestion Use Case research, undertaken by strategy firm LEK Consultancy, suggests UAVs could capture around one-third of the B2B express/ same-day delivery market within 15-20 years. Drones offer a more environmentally friendly transportation option too. A report by Virginia Tech, Measuring the Effects of Drone Delivery in the United States, modelled the impact on three metropolitan areas within five years of launch. The research showed that, by year five, in a single metropolitan area, deliveries by drone could save almost 300 million miles in road travel and eliminate up to 113,900 tons of CO2 per year.
They could also generate up to $208,000 in new annual sales for a participating retail business. Gartner predicts that, in 2026, over one million drones will carry out retail deliveries, rising from just 20,000 in 2020. In terms of drone package deliveries, the figures differ considerably. Research firm Facts & Factors, for instance, expects the sector to reach $6 billion by 2026. The Drone Package Delivery Market report by MarketsandMarkets puts a value of $39 billion by 2030, whereas the Global Drone Delivery Market – Analysis and Forecast 2023-2030 by BIS Research suggests the figure will merely be around $5 billion by this time. Meanwhile, research firm IDTechEx in its Drone Market and Industries 2021-2041 report, expects the drone delivery industry to only reach around $5 billion by 2041.
UAVs could capture around one-third of the B2B express/same-day delivery market within 15-20 years OVERCOMING HURDLES Whatever the market value, there are many hurdles to overcome – the biggest of which is regulation – before we see the skies above us buzzing with parcel-carrying UAVs. As it stands, few countries have approved commercial drone delivery activity. However, this is expected to change sooner rather than later as there are at present several pilots underway across the US, Australia and Europe (see Trials and Tribulations). UAS delivery applications in cities pose problems for the safe drop-off of packages due to urban densities and the propensity for living in apartments – even those with balconies. One
