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APRIL ISSUE | APRIL 202 2
THE ONTARION
The Ukraine crisis: Anti-Russian sanctions, mass refugee movements, and conflict resolution U of G experts Dr. Edward Koning and Dr. Ian Spears weigh in on the international and domestic responses to the Russo-Ukrainian war ALYSSA MARKS
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n Feb. 24, the Russian military launched a devastating invasion of Ukraine. In the weeks since then, Russian troops have flooded into Ukraine through Russian, Crimean, and Belarusian borders in military land invasions. State-sanctioned shelling has been targeted at humanitarian corridors and some of Ukraine’s largest cities, including its capital of Kyiv. In response to this, Ukraine has since paused the evacuation of civilians in anticipation of Russian attacks on these corridors. These attacks have initiated a mass exodus of refugees, the largest mass refugee movement in Europe since WWII, states the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. According to the United Nations Human Rights Of-
fice of the High Commissioner (OHCHR), as of March 30, over 1,189 Ukrainian civilians have reportedly been killed and roughly 1,901 have been injured since the invasion began. Although the OHCHR warns that the true figure may be even higher. Most of the casualties have been caused by shelling and missile air strikes. Since the 2014 ousting of pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine has shown interest in joining the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With Ukraine leaning towards Western association and NATO’s east-ward expansion, the Kremlin announced that it feels insecure about Russia's perception of security. Ukraine, which was once a member of the Soviet Union, has been the subject of mass disinformation campaigns by Russia, which claim that Ukraine
Dr. Ian Spears says that a mutually hurting stalemate may be the only way forward to meaningful Russia-Ukraine negotiations. CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH
is Nazi-affiliated and genocidal. Ukraine’s Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky, says otherwise. Russian President Vladimir Putin has posed a hefty list of demands to both Ukraine and the West. He calls on Ukraine to recognize Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, as a legitimate part of Russia. Moreover, Putin also wants Ukraine to alter the makeup of its constitution and national edicts to ensure that it will never join the EU or NATO. Putin also sends a message to NATO demanding that it reverse its expansion into eastern Eu-
Dr. Edward Koning supposes that Canada will see a small number of Ukrainian refugees fleeing to our shores. CREDIT: EDWARD KONING
rope. Namely, the Kremlin calls on NATO to remove its military forces from states that joined after 1997. This includes Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria, most of which border Russia or Russian allies.
The West’s eastward encroachment The Ontarion spoke with Dr. Ian Spears, a political science professor at U of G whose research focuses on conflict, conflict resolution, and state building, for his expert opinion on the developing war. “You may be familiar with the security dilemma. That is the idea that if I have a gun in an effort to make myself feel more secure, it makes everyone else feel more insecure. As the West began to incorporate more and more of Eastern Europe into NATO, or into a European alliance, that was bound to make Russia feel insecure,” Spears said. Since the initial Feb. 24 invasion, Russia has been met with a surprising resistance campaign from Ukrainian forces and the West. NATO has deployed troops to the countries that border Ukraine, including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. However no NATO troops have stepped foot in the country. These multi-
national battalion-sized groups are on stand-by in case Putin decides to traverse beyond Ukraine and into NATO countries. According to Global Affairs Canada, Canada has responded to the Russian invasion through a number of actions, such as offering military aid, deploying military personnel to bordering NATO countries, donating to humanitarian organizations and projects, and implementing policies to fast track the refugee and immigration application process. There have been several peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials, but as of March 30 they have not led to any substantial resolutions. Moreover, on March 27 President Zelensky said in an interview with Russian journalists that Ukraine was ready to begin discussing the possibility of supporting a neutral geopolitical status.
Sanctions: Are they effective? Canada has sanctioned over 900 individuals and entities from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine who are known supporters of the Russian invasion, reports Global Affairs Canada. Many of these sanctions were directed towards individuals, including some top Kremlin figures, executives from Russian energy companies, Russian oligarchs, and so on. Canada has not imported Russian crude oil since 2019, and
