One South Corporate Presentation - November 2018

ONE SOUTH REALTY 2018 AND BEYOND

MARKET & OSR 2018 METRICS (THRU 10/30/2018)

OSR VS CVRMLS SALES

2018 isn’t over…

(THRU 10 30 18)

CVR MLS (in $1,000’s)

$70,000,000

CVRMLS

$180,000,000

OSR

$52,500,000

$135,000,000

$35,000,000

$90,000,000

$17,500,000

$45,000,000

$0

$0

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

METRICS OUTSTANDING

‘ORIGINAL ASKING PRICE TO CLOSING PRICE’ CVRMLS

OSR

100% 99.5% 99% 98.5% 98% 97.5% 97% 96.5% 96% 95.5% 95%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

METRICS OUTSTANDING ‘DAYS TO SELL’ CVRMLS

OSR

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

LET'S REVIEW HOME PRICES IN THE 20TH CENTURY

THE OLD DAYS

THE OLD DAYS AND A TREND LINE

1990 TO 2000

2000 TO 2007

2007 TO 2012

2012 TO TODAY

SO WHAT IS THAT??

Construction undersupply

CHEAP MONEY + NO NEW HOMES = HIGH PRICES

Interest rates below historic norms

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS •

Interest rates are still well below historical norms

•

We are substantially undersupplying the housing market

•

Rising construction costs will make it increasingly difficult to supply housing to the market at a reasonable price for the foreseeable future

UNDERWRITING

CREDIT RISK MATTERS

NOTICE ANYTHING?

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE

Sub Prime!

WHO IS BACKING THE LOANS?

THE THREE LOAN BEARS

(LACK OF) UNDERWRITING IN 2003-2008 •

100% I/O’s (Interest Only)

•

Uncapped Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM’s)

•

125’s (125% loan amounts)

•

NINJA’s (No Income, No Job, No Assets)

•

Stated Income / No Doc

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS •

The availability of credit is still well below the heights of 2008

•

Subprime loans make up 1% of the market (2018) versus 30% of the market (2007)

•

Homeownership rates are consistent with the 1970’s and 1980’s

NEW CONSTRUCTION (OR LACK THEREOF)

WOW

DESPITE WHAT YOU MAY THINK… • Home

builders face challenges

• DRAMATICALLY • Natural

disasters (fire / flood)

• Government • Where

rising material costs / Shrinking labor pool

mandates

lot supply exists ≠ where lot demand is

WHERE ARE ALL OF THE ROOFERS? OH…

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

NEW HOMES, UH OH…

S&P SELECT BUILDER INDEX

HELP THE BUILDING COMMUNITY •

As the cash rich national builders gain a foothold, they will suck up the lot supply, the local builders will: •

need to find more lots, and in different places

•

need to control and develop their own land

•

look to come into urban areas with smaller niche projects

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS •

Fewer specs to buy by local builders — start early

•

Construction costs are at all time highs — builders prices are high

•

Bigger builders are here which means less customization

THE FUTURE

SO GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW …

•Low

inventory

•Rising

rates

•Rising

costs

•Reasonable •Fewer

underwriting

new home sales

•Healthy

economy

…WHATS GONNA HAPPEN?

WILL PRICES KEEP ROLLING? Given rising rates and affordability issues, this seems unlikely

WILL PRICES REGRESS TO TREND? This seems more likely given rates and affordability issues

WILL PRICES FLATTEN? This could occur if the economy enters recession, which is a possibility

WILL PRICES DROP? If rates rise, a recession occurs AND credit tightens, then an adjustment could occur

RICK’S BET IS HERE Due to the undersupply of new homes and cost increases, inventory will remain low

WHAT TO TELL YOUR CLIENTS •

Inventory is 60 to 70% less than in 2008 •

Extremely difficult to add more housing inexpensively and where people want to buy it — and this is unlikely to change

•

Underwriting is consistent with 1990 - 2000, not 2005 - 2008

•

Mortgage rates are NOT a problem, despite their rise

•

Economy is far healthier — unemployment is at the lowest rate in 50 years

BUT WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD TELL THEM …

• We

cannot predict or control

• Natural

disasters

• Construction • Interest • Trade

costs

rates / underwriting / abolition of GSEs

wars / tariffs

• Politics

WHAT ABOUT

RVA

RVA METRO POPULATION C of R has positive population growth for the first time since the 1950’s, which is putting pressure on the existing housing supply

NEW CONSTRUCTION ISN’T THE CURE % of new

3.1%

City

14.3%

Chesterfield

13.8%

Hanover

8%

Henrico

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

9,300 active listings

DOWN 62%

3,500 active listings

1,847 active listings

DOWN 76%

435 active listings

SEGMENTING THE MARKET $250 TO $300K 2013

2018

SEGMENTING THE MARKET $600-700K 2013

2018

WHAT TO TELL YOUR CLIENTS •

Market segments differ by GEOGRAPHY •

•

Easier to add inventory in (i.e.

–– new construction) suburban / rural areas Demographic shifts back into the denser / closer in areas

•Market

segments differ by PRICE

•Demand

decreases at higher

prices •Easier

to add inventory (i.e. –– new construction) at higher price points

•Interest

rates more impactful with greater debt

PRICE APPRECIATION MATRIX

Land costs are cheaper, but people don’t like the commute!

Due to costs, building affordably is difficult

Far Out No problem!

Well, as long is it above $700!

Low Price High Price Nearly impossible to add inventory — very safe bets

We can find some spot lots to build on, just not a ton of ‘em

Close In

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS •

Close in / low price will remain imbalanced with low inventory and high buyer demand

•

Mid-tier pricing in inner-ring suburbia will move towards a balanced market

•

Upper price points in communities further from the core will become oversupplied and see prices flatten or fall slightly

R--------

R-------N

R-----I-N

RE-E--I-N

RE-ESSI-N

RE-ESSI-N

RECESSION

Recession –– a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

THE ‘R’ WORD •

Recessions are inevitable –– markets boom and markets bust.

•

Some pundits are predicting a recession beginning is as early as 2020.

•

•

B of A shows 14/17 indicators approaching ‘Late in the Cycle’ levels

Recessions vary widely in intensity

RECESSION SEVERITY GDP Loss

Unemployment

30%

22.5%

15%

7.5%

0%

Great Depression

73 to 75

80 to 83

87 to 91

01 to 02

07 to 09

4 of 5 recessions did not see home prices fall

But the last recession saw prices fall by 30%

WHAT IS DIFFERENT NOW THAN IN 2008?

• Inventory

is down 60 to 75% depending on sub-market

• Underwriting • New

construction is still waaaaaay down

• Geographic • City

has returned to pre-bubble standards

sales are more evenly distributed

vs suburbs

• Millennials

entering the buyer pool

CHOOSE THE FORM OF THE DESTRUCTOR •

1929 –– Stock Market > Banking > then everything else imaginable

•

1979 — Oil > then everything else

•

1987 — Savings and Loan> Commercial RE > Dow Jones > Residential Real Estate

•

2008 — Mortgage > Residential Real Estate > Dow Jones/Nasdaq > Commercial RE

THE ‘R’ QUESTIONS • Which

sector falls first?

• How

harsh will it be?

• How

long?

• What

bears the brunt?

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS •A

recession does not mean home prices fall — supply and demand causes that

•It

is not 2008

•Housing

is a long term strategy

•Recessions •Fortunes •Recessions

are typically a buying opportunity are made in down markets tend to cause rents to rise even faster!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING SEASONS

MORTGAGE Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

UNDERSTANDING MORTGAGE RATES •

Privilege –– Historical cost of borrowing money

•

Inflation Risk –– Risk of inflation degrading the value of the money •

•

Tied to economy, especially wages

Repayment Risk — Risk of loss of money •

Tied to underwriting

RATE = PRIVILEGE + RISK + INFLATION

THE USE OF ARMS 30 FRM

8.67

1 Yr Arm

8.52 7.07 6

5.72 4.23

3.81 2.49

1993

2000

2005

2015

THE 5/5 30 Year Fixed

5/5

P and I

$2,007

$1,867

HOI

$100

$100

Taxes

$312

$312

MI

$117

$0

Total

$2,535

$2,279

A NOTE ON HYBRIDS AND ARMS •

Average time in a home 7 years •

Why pay for privilege of 30 years if you aren’t going to use it?

•

Number of moves post 30 years old is between 5 and 7

•

NO ONE LIVES IN A HOME 30 YEARS ANYMORE

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS •

ARMs + Hybrids are not subprime — but poorly underwritten loans are, regardless of term

•

5/1 + 3/1 + 1/1 + 7/23 are tools — learn to apply them and you will pay the least interest over time

BEHAVIOR Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

30 to 40 year olds think this is normal

WHAT IS NORMAL, ANYWAY?

50 to 60 year olds think this is normal

What will the ’20 Somethings’ consider normal?

IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS • Expect

price acceleration to slow

• Some

areas / prices will slow more quickly

• DOM

increases

• Fewer

bidding wars (HELL YA!)

• People

misinterpreting what the new market actually means

REALTOR Ch-Ch-Ch Changes

LOW

NAR Membership is back to 2006 levels

DON’T GET WRAPPED UP IN RECESSION TALK • Focus • Fear

on your business and watch out for: / increasing desperation amongst agents and the public

• Commission

compression / undercutting

• Uneducated

/ poorly trained agents

• Discount • More

services means discount agents

expired listings

CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON •

Thinkers and adapters will emerge victorious

•

Embrace uncertainty –– great change provides great opportunity

•

Realtor Darwinism –– those who evolve will thrive

•

Challenge yourself to learn and stay relevant

•

Make your advice your currency

ADVICE MATTERS AGAIN!!!

(FINALLY)