October 2025 Report with market data through September
Photo by ITod47, used under the Creative Commons License
As of early October, 30-year mortgage rates, at about 6.3%, were essentially unchanged from early September (but well down from 7% in early 2025): The Fed’s first 2025 reduction of its benchmark rate, of .25%, had little effect, though consensus opinion is that further cuts are probably coming before the end of the year. Inflation continued to tick up slightly, while stock markets hit new all-time highs. Nationally, consumer confidence remained low, with significant concerns regarding personal finances, employment and inflation – though affluent consumers deeply invested in stock markets were less concerned than low and middle income segments.
Bay Area real estate markets have been seeing widely varying conditions and trends by price segment, property type, level of affluence, and perhaps most of all, by whether they’re being significantly impacted by the AI boom. Generally speaking, Santa Clara County is on the positive side of all those factors and criteria, and remains the strongest county market in the Bay Area. The Q3 2025 median house sales price was its highest Q3 price ever, and the number of luxury home sales in September rose 50% from September 2024. Santa Clara continues to dominate luxury home sales in the region. October sales data will give us further insight into the autumn selling season and market direction, before activity typically begins to slow down in November for the mid-winter holidays.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
Santa Clara County House Price Trend*
Median House Sales Prices, 2015 – Present, by Quarter
The Q3 2025 median house sales price fell from its Q2 peak (the typical seasonal trend), but rose 2% year-over-year to hit its highest Q3 price ever.*
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring (Q2).
Pandemic boom Q2 2022 Q2 2024 AI boom
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality. Q2 2025
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change due to late reported sales.
Santa Clara County Townhouse Price Trend*
Median Townhouse Sales Prices, 2016 – Present, by Quarter
$1,300,000 $1,200,000
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
Year over year,the Q3 2025median townhouse sales price fell about 3%. Median sales prices often rise and fall according to seasonal supply and demand trends, and often peak for the year in Q2.
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurredfor moreandhalffor less.It canbeaffected byother factors besides changesinfair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Late reported sales may alter final quarter number.
Santa Clara County Condo Price Trend*
Median Condo Sales Prices, 2016 – Present, by Quarter
Generally speaking, over the last 5-6 years, Bay Area median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in house markets. Q2 2018 Q2 2024
Year over year, the Q3 2025 median condo sales price dropped about 2% year over year.*
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Late reported sales may alter final quarter number.
by Bay Area County, 2025 YTD Sales* Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 by September 30, 2025, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales. without a comparative market analysis.
House sales reported by 9/30/25*
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. It may fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market value. Median house sizes vary between counties, and counties contain submarkets ofwidelydifferent values. Howthese pricesapply toanyparticular home is unknown
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Value
Bay Area County, 2025
Sales*
Santa Clara
Contra Costa
Sonoma
House sales reported by 9/30/25*
Dollar per square foot is calculated on interior livable space and does not include garages, attics, basements, storage rooms, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or lot size. Values are affected by location, age, quality of construction, condition, architectural style, home size, lot size, views, parking, amenities and many other factors. Counties contain submarkets of widely different values, and how these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices
by Bay Area County, 2025 YTD Sales*
San Francisco
$1,240,000
San Mateo
$875,000
Monterey
$835,500
Santa Clara
$760,000
Santa Cruz Marin
$729,000
$675,000
Condo sales reported by 9/30/25*
Alameda Sonoma Solano
$595,500
Contra Costa
$501,000
$421,000
$340,000
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. It may fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market value. Median condo sizes vary between counties, and counties contain submarkets of widely different values.
Santa Clara County: Average Household Incomes
Selected Cities & Towns, U.S. Census Estimates*
Los Altos Hills
Monte Sereno
Los Altos
Saratoga
Los Gatos
Palo Alto
Cupertino
Mountain View
Sunnyvale
Santa Clara
Milpitas
Campbell
Morgan Hill
San Jose Gilroy
$473,000
$454,000
$404,000
$344,000
$318,000
$309,000
$296,000
$248,500
$246,000
$220,000
$209,000
$207,000
$199,000
$188,000
$158,000
Area household incomes are affected by many factors, including main sources of employment, level of education, household size, median age, homeowner/tenant ratio, average home size, housing mix (house, condo, townhouse, apartment, social housing, etc.) and housing costs.
*Very approximate U.S. Census estimates, often published with significant margins of error.
San Jose’s neighborhoods vary widely in household income calculations, but the Census did not break them out in these estimates.
Santa Clara County Demographic Snapshot
$160,000
$180,000 $140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
Santa Clara County is one of the most educated and affluent counties in the country. Of California counties, it has the highest percentage of graduate or professional degree holders, and they earn the highest median incomes in the state.
Among holders of bachelor’s, graduate and professional degrees, median earnings can vary enormously depending on the specialty of the degree, i.e. liberal arts, education, social services, business, computer science, law, medicine and so on.
Some college or AA degree
New Listings Coming on Market
Santa Clara County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Santa Clara County Homes Market
On 10/1/25, the number of listings for sale
increased modestly from the previous month and was up 10% year over year. 59% of listings were houses, 26% condos, and 15% townhouses.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
2/1/23
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract/Pending Sale)
Pending Ratio
SantaClaraCountyMarket Dynamics*
The pending ratio is a version of absorption rate: The higher the percentage, the greater the demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy. Though well down from the pandemic boom, Santa Clara County still has the highest pending ratio in the greater Bay Area. The ratio has been ticking up in recent months.
The pending ratio is the ratio of the pending listing count (listings in contract) to the active listing count within the month.
*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but maycontainerrorsandsubjectto revision.All numbersapproximate.
Santa Clara County Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Calculation
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. By long-term national norms, the MSI reading is running very low, but was the highest September reading in 5 years. ►
3-month rolling monthly data for residential transactions reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, perInfosparks.Data fromsources deemed reliable, but maycontain errorsandsubjectto revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
Monthly Home Sales Volume
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted The number of sales in September 2025 ticked up slightly from August and rose approximately 7% to 8% from September 2024. offers in the
Santa Clara County Luxury Home Sales
Sales Prices of $5,000,000 & Above, by Quarter*
The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring (Q2) typically the dominant market of the year.
Q32025 $5 million+ sales dropped back from the all-time high in Q2, but was 4% higher year over year. (On a monthly basis, not illustrated here, September 2025 luxury sales rose over 50% year over year.) Year-to-date sales increased 37% over the same period of 2024.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Powered by the explosion of AI-boom wealth, Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties have been dominating $5m+ home sales.
In 2025, SF’s luxury market has begun to see the effects of an accelerating AI start-up boom.
In San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin and Monterey Counties, we use $5,000,000 as the threshold for “luxury” home sales (and $10,000,000+ for “ultra-luxury). In the other Bay Area Counties listed, $3,000,000 is considered the luxury-home price threshold (and $5 million+ is considered “ultraluxury”).
*$5,000,000+ home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks through September 2025, based on data available on 10/3/25. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain
Of the big markets for homes in this price segment, Santa Clara County sees, on average, the fastest sales.
Alameda and Contra Costa Counties don’t have large markets for homes in this price range, but demand has been strong.
One measure of the heat of demand for these very expensive home sales is how long, on average, it takes the homes that sell to go into contract. The lower the average days-onmarket reading, the faster buyers are snapping up new listings. (This won’t include homes that don’t sell but instead end up being withdrawn from the market.)
SF luxury houses have an average DOM of 36 days, and sell much faster than condos and co-ops in this price segment.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
Santa Clara County Market Dynamics
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not unusual for price reductions to peak in late summer or autumn.
The number of price reductions in September
2025 continued to decline from the June high, but was 8% higher year over year. The very large monthly y-o-y increases seen earlier in 2025 have been rapidly falling.
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Overbidding List Prices in Santa Clara County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2018
Salesin1monthmostlyreflectmarket
More overbidding dynamics in the previous month.
Higheroverbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. 52% of all home sales sold for over list price in September 2025 (down from 62% in September 2024). By property type, 55% of houses and townhouses, and 32% of condos sold over asking.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price.
This statistic fluctuates by season, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier. Overbidding statistics can be affected by strategic underpricing strategies.
The average home sale sold about 1% over list price in September 2025, down from 3% over list price in September 2024. By property type: Houses sold about 2% over LP, townhouses .5% over LP, and condos, 2.5% below LP.
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Santa Clara County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how long it takes the homes that sell to go into contract, this statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring and slowest in midwinter. In September 2025, the average days-on- market was 29 days (up from 24 days in September 2024). By property type, the count for houses was 26 days, for townhouses, 31 days, and for condos, 43 days.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks or to MLSLISTINGS perBroker Metrics.Dataderivedfromsources deemedreliable,butmay containerrors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on October 2, 2025 the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose slightly to 6.34%.
Rates vary widely according to the property, Fed begins reducing its benchmark rate. Updated 10/2/25
Aug-24
Fed’s first 2025 rate cut
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated September 17, 2025
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. This past September, the rate was reduced for the first time in 2025 by another quarter point. Further cuts are expected.
2022/2023/2024: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08 boom
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech &
Subprime pandemic booms
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
“The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalizationweighted index of more than 2,500 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a broad index that is heavily weighted toward the important technology sector.” Investopedia.com
The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high in early October
2025. The S&P 500 Index, not illustrated here, also hit a new peak. Changes in stock market values have a large impact on housing markets, especially more affluent, higher price segments.
Per https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM. Because of number of data points, not every week has a separate column. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. For general illustration purposes only.
Year-over-Year Percentage Change, by Month 2021 – 2025 YTD*
The general “CPI-All Items” inflation reading for August 2025 rose to 2.9%. “Core CPI” (all items
food & energy, not illustrated on
chart) rose to 3.1%.*
The “target inflation rate” for the Federal Reserve Bank is 2%.
*Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCSL], per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPIAUCSL is a
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in September 2025 declined from August, having plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remaining high by long-term norms.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
and
U.S. Jobs Report*
MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*
Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands
Weak employment growth in recent months has raised both fears regarding the U.S. economy and hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank.
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially: For example the original May-June 2025 estimate of 291,000 new jobs has been revised down to 6,000.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Santa Clara County Employment Trends
Number of Employed Residents, by Month since 2016* 925,000 850,000 1,000,000 Updated through August 2025 975,000 950,000 900,000 875,000 1,025,000
*Per California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) . Last month’s data is labeled “preliminary” by EDD. EDD often goes back to revise past data releases. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Bay Area Population
Number of Residents by County
Bay Area Population Density
Owner & Tenant Occupancy
PercentageofHousingUnits,byBayArea County
Generally speaking, median age has been increasing across Bay Area counties, and in the United States as a whole. Of CA counties, Marin has the 2nd highest median age (after Nevada County).
Foreign-Born Residents
PercentageofPopulation,byBay Area County
Theseanalyses
The largest source of the foreign-born populations of Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa & Solano Counties has been from Asian countries – especially China and India – while in Monterey, Sonoma, Napa, Marin and Santa Cruz, the largest share came from Latin America.
Approximately 55% to 60% of foreign-born Bay Area residents are now naturalized U.S. citizens.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
