November 2025 Report with market data through October
to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
As of the end of October, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had reached new highs; 30-year mortgage rates hit their lowest point in over a year; inflation ticked up slightly to 3%; and the Fed made its second .25% reduction of its benchmark rate in 2025 (while cautioning that another reduction in December was not certain). General consumer confidence remained low, with significant unease regarding personal finances, job security and inflation – though affluent consumers enjoying substantial stock market gains were less worried. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index continued to decline from its tariff-shock peak in April but remained high by long-term norms. The Stanford Circle market remains characterized by very strong buyer demand. The number of home sales increased on a year-over-year basis, and homes selling for $5,000,000+ hit their highest month-of-October count ever. As measured by average days on market, listings sold faster than last year, and almost 55% of sales sold for over list price. A detailed review of these and other market indicators follow within this report. The market typically slows substantially from mid-November to mid-January, though listing and sales activity continue in every month of the year, and this year might possibly buck the normal seasonal trend. However, this is usually the period when buyers can negotiate most aggressively on unsold homes listed earlier in the year.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
Median sales price is thatprice at whichhalf the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that conceals a wide range of prices in the underlying sales, and can be affected by factors other than changes in fair market value, including market seasonality and changes in the median size of homes sold.
Pandemic hits ↑
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Pandemic boom trends are more reliable than short-term changes.
Jun-18 Oct-19 Feb-21 Jun-22
*3-month rolling average of median prices as reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics or NorCal MLS Alliance. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change due to late-reported sales.
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as the median size of houses sold in the period). Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks, large sample of regional sales. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Stanford Circle Residential Market
MarketDynamicsbyPriceSegment/Property Type
PaloAlto,LosAltos,LosAltosHills,Atherton,Woodside,PortolaValley,Menlo Park
Market indicators can change dramatically from period to period, due to both economic conditions and seasonal trends.
$2,000,000 -
$2,999,999
$3,000,000 -
$4,999,999
$5,000,000 -
$7,499,999
$7,500,000 -
$9,999,999
$10 Million+
Houses Condos Townhouses Under $2,000,000
*Active/Coming-Soon Listings & Listings in Contract posted to MLS as of 10/31/25. **Sales statistics per last 12 months of sales, i.e. the annualized rate of activity. ***Months Supply of Inventory measures approx. time required to sell listings for sale at the estimated annualized rate of sale: Lower readings signify higher demand compared to supply. Market activity typically ebbs and flows to seasonal trends.
Data reported to NorCal MLS Alliance and Infosparks, may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all activity is reported to MLS. Some stats based on large sample of sales. All numbers approximate. Statistics based on annualized activity may not apply to current conditions and can be distorted by outlier data. Numbers change constantly.
New Listings Coming on Market
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
After the surge of
the number fell back in October, which is the usual seasonal trend – but the number was slightly higher year over year.
Stanford Circle Homes Market
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
The number of homes for sale on 11/1/25 was slightly down month over month, but slightly up year over year. 79% of listings were houses, 14% condos, and 7% townhouses. Inventory can be expected to plummet in coming months.*
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Stanford Circle Region Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Residential activity reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated based on available numbers, but may change with late-reported
Compared to long-term, national norms, the current MSI readingwouldbeconsidered extremely low, indicating high demand compared to the supply of homes for sale.
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| Pandemic boom Market
Pertaining to Palo
Home Sales Volume
StanfordCircleMarketDynamics & Seasonality
Sales
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Luxury Home Sales, $5 Million+
Seasonality
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
$5m+ home sales in October 2025 hit its highest month-ofOctober count ever. Year-todate sales are up about 25%.
Bay Area Luxury Home Sales Volume vs. S&P 500 Index
Comparing Bay Area luxury home sales volume with changes in the S&P 500* . ($5 million+ sales in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo & Santa Clara Counties; $3 million+ sales in other Bay Area Counties.)
Significant changes in economic conditions will typically affect sales volumes in later months.
Tariff-shock impact on stock markets did not last long enough to affect 12-monthrolling luxury home sales numbers.
Many factors affect luxury-home sales, but over the last 2 years, as stock markets soared, so did BayArea luxury home sales. During the 2+yearperiod illustrated, average monthly sales volume in all price segments (not illustrated on this chart) increased by 7 to 8% – following a modest decline in interest rates – while luxury home sales increased by approximately 49% as the S&P 500 rose about 54%.*
Stock markets begin sustained rise in values,
triggering rebound in luxury home sales
*12-month-rolling average number of monthly luxury home sales for 11 greater Bay Area Counties as reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. October 2025 numbers estimated using available data. 12-month-rolling sales data may lag short-term changes. Monthly S&P 500 readings an average of daily readings. Analysis may containerrorsandsubjectto revision.Ageneralized illustration. All numbersareapproximate.
Bay Area House Sales, 2025 vs. 2023
Changes in Median Sales Values by Home Size*
1500 - 2000 Sq.Ft. Houses
4000 - 6000 Sq.Ft. Houses
In the past 2 years, soaring stock markets caused the wealth of more affluent Bay Area households to rapidly climb, accelerating demand for, and appreciation of, large luxury homes.
Comparing changes in values of median-sized houses in the Bay Area to the appreciation of large (luxury) houses since stock markets began their dramatic upswing in late 2023.
Over the period, the appreciation of values for large houses (4000 – 6000 sq.ft.) was approximately double the rate of median-sized houses (1500 – 2000 sq.ft.).*
Percentage Increase in Median Sales Price 2023 to 2025
Percentage Increase in Median $/Sq.Ft. Value 2023 to 2025
*Comparing house sales reported to NorCal MLSAlliance through late October of 2023 and 2025in10 greater
Bay Area Counties. Fixer-uppers excluded. Analysis made in good faith from data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Overbidding List Prices in the Stanford Circle
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2019
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings and usually peak in spring. In October 2025, 54.5% of sales sold for over list price, compared to 52% in October 2024.
More overbidding ▲
Large sample of sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Stanford Circle Cities: Over & Under Bidding
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
100%= anaverage sales price at original list price. 102% = an average sales price 2% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price.
Homes selling under $5 million typically sell for higher salesprice-to-list-price percentages than more expensive homes (which are more likely to sell below asking price). In October 2025, the average home sale sold about 1% over list price.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Based on large sample of sales. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Stanford Circle Cities: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
This statistic fluctuates by season, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Homes under $5 million usually sell faster than more expensive homes.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Atherton, Woodside
In October 2025, average days on market to acceptance of offer were 5 days lower than in October 2024.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics.
Data
Percentage of Buyers Having Difficulties Obtaining Insurance
State of California, 2025 vs. 2023, by Property Location* 2023 2025
The ability to find comprehensive, affordable homeowner’s insurance continues to be an increasingly serious issue for buyers (and homeowners). In a 2025 survey, 17% of CA real estate agents reported having a transaction terminate due to an inability to do so.
*Asked of Buyer’s agents: “Did thebuyer have difficulties obtaining fire/homeowners insurance?”
Many factors affect home insurance costs including susceptibility to natural disasters like severe weather events and fire; property construction; local construction costs; and, as in CA, state regulation of insurers. Overall, rates have been rapidly accelerating with increasing damage claims, and often vary enormously between regions of the same state.
*PerBankrate: https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/homeowners-insurance- cost/#cost-by-state. Rates refreshed September 2025. The average annual home insurance premium for a home with a dwelling coverage amount of $300,000. Will not include flood or earthquake insurance.
Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Share of Sales in Which Buyers Paid All Cash
National Home Sales in Selected Price Segments*
Percentage of U.S. home sales in price segment in which buyers paid all cash.
“All-cash home purchases remain a powerful force shaping the housing market. Roughly one-third of homes sold in the first half of 2025 were paid for in all cash…High-wealth and older households are far more likely to purchase homes with cash…Investors, especially institutional players, are a key driver of cash purchases... [with] limited liability companies and corporate entities accounting for a disproportionate share of [investor] cash transactions. Secondhome buyers, particularly in vacation markets, also frequently buy with cash.” Excerpted quotes*
1.3% of U.S. home sales were for $5,000,000+.
$200,000$350,000 21%
69% of U.S. home sales sold between $200,000 and $1,000,000. (21% sold for less than $200,000.)
9% of U.S. home sales sold between $1,000,000 & $5,000,000.
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*U.S. home sales in first half of 2025 per Realtor.com Research Report, “Cash Is King: Trends in All-Cash Home Sales,”https://www.realtor.com/research/all-cash-sale-trends-h1-2025/dated 10/7/25.Percentagesrounded. Data deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Years of Homeownership before Selling
California Real Estate Market since 2000*
Homeowners have been staying in their homes longer before selling due to the “mortgage lock-in effect” of recent years, but, over the longer term, to the increasing age of the population and of homeowners specifically: Older age groups tend to move much less often than younger segments. This has large ramifications for the market’s supply and demand dynamics, causing significantly fewer listings to be available for purchase at any given time.
Percentage of Homes Purchased by International Buyers
California Real Estate Market since 2008*
The percentage of CA homes purchased by foreign buyers (in Q2) continued to decline. Of foreign buyers, the top 3 nations of origin in 2025 were India, Mexico and China. The percentage of buyers from China (13%) in 2025 is down from an average of 29% in 2019 – 2024. Due to new national immigration and visa policies, the percentage is expected to plunge in the next survey.
*Data per California Association of Realtors, 2025 Housing Market Survey, Q2 transactions. Data from sources deemed reliable, but not guaranteed and may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on November 6, 2025 theweekly average,30-year,conforming-loan interest rate rose slightly to 6.22%.
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Bay Area Home Sales Volume vs. 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rate
A General Illustration since 2016
Many factors affect real estate markets, but generally speaking, when interest rates fall, sales volume rises, and vice versa.
Significant changes in interest rates and economic conditions will typically affect sales volumes in later months.
The “target inflation rate” for the Federal Reserve Bank is 2%.
10/24/25
*Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCSL], per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPIAUCSL is a
urban consumers.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated October 29, 2025
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September and October 2025, the rate was reduced twice, by a quarter point each time.
Junk bond
2022/2023/2024: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08 boom
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech &
Subprime pandemic booms
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Nasdaq Composite Index
“The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalizationweighted index of more than 2,500 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a broad index that is heavily weighted toward the important technology sector.” Investopedia.com
The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high in late October 2025.
The S&P 500 Index, not illustrated here, also hit a new peak. Changes in stock market values have a large impact on housing markets, especially more affluent, higher price segments.
Per https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM. Because of number of data points, not every week has a separate column. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. For general illustration purposes only.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in October 2025 continued to drop, having plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remaining relatively high by long-term norms.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
&
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
