BOOKS WAR

Author: Bob Woodward

Published by: Simon & Schuster, New York, 2024, 435pp, $60.

Still in full cry, Bob Woodward is a seasoned investigative reporter who, with Carl Bernstein, made his name over the Watergate scandal. His latest offering interleaves three critical issues of our time: the war in Ukraine; Israel’s post-October 2023 military onslaught into Gaza; and the United States presidential contest of 2024. Much of the material provided relies upon long established Washington contacts with nuggets and insights provided without attribution.

For Ukraine, it is shown that American intelligence was satisfied by the final quarter of 2021 that Vladimir Putin planned to invade, this to the disbelief of major allies. After reading a preceding July diatribe by Putin, security adviser Jake Sullivan was convinced that this decision germinated during the leader’s self-imposed Covid quarantine. Surrounded by a small circle of acolytes, Putin insisted that the creation of an independent Ukraine now comprised a nuclear weapons threat to Russia. Tightly controlled, his invasion planning excluded Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and, more importantly, key military leaders. This resulted in the invasion’s initial disarray, doubtless compounding Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s fulminations against the official military, culminating in his abortive ‘March for Justice’ in July 2023.

Concerned at the conflict’s danger of spreading, President Joe Biden urged Sweden and Finland to join NATO, an option kept closed for Ukraine. But among his advisers he admitted that there was now a dilemma: failing to eject Russia from Ukraine let Putin off the hook; doing so risked breaking the taboo against use of tactical nuclear weapons. An added complication was the legacy of past failures, including Barack Obama’s passive response to Russia’s 2014 intervention in Crimea and, still raw, the chaotic American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Both gave inadvertent green lights for Putin to invade. While Biden’s approach to this crisis is considered one of prudent pragmatism, he was helped by the blunt warnings given to the Russians by both Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Vice President Kamala Harris.

If Ukraine was difficult, Israel and Gaza proved frustrating beyond exasperation. For peripatetic Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, consistent Israeli refusal to allow humanitar-ian passage access to Gaza was not just obstructive but chilling. On this issue Netanyahu’s answer was the need for a corridor allowing a mass transit of the entire Gaza populace into Egypt, a suggestion bound to outrage President Sisi in Cairo. If anything, Blinken’s exchanges in Arab capitals proved more helpful. In Amman, King Abdullah confirmed that Israel had generously funded Hamas over the years to stabilise Gaza and keep the Palestinians divided. In Saudi Arabia, and meeting with crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, Blinken asked about prospects for Palestinian statehood. ‘Do I want it’ his host replied, ‘not much; do I need it, absolutely’. Why this response? The answer was a youthful Saudi population now focused as never before on the Palestinian cause since the fateful 7 October 2023.

Accordingly Blinken is recorded as then telling Netanyahu that Arab capitals supported a defeat of Hamas, but that ‘Israel needs to give us space’ to help tackle the social and economic grievances feeding its ideology. To this came a flat no from Netanyahu, claiming he was unprepared to provide an ounce of relief to the people of Gaza.

These major conflicts disturbed the American presidential race but did so unevenly. Of the protagonists, Biden incurred the heaviest toll; doubts about his suitability as a candidate were mounting on account of his palpable ageing, family problems and the brick like obduracy of Putin and Netanyahu. His eventual standing down is seen here as less momentous than his immediate endorsement of Kamala Harris

True to form, audiences cheered Donald Trump at a rally in February 2024 when, so far as he was concerned, Russia ‘could do what the hell they want’ should they attack NATO members failing to pay their fair share towards collective defence. He continued to favour use of the military to quell local protests, this to the consternation of General Mark Milley who deemed it prudent to secure his home with bullet proof glass. Persisting was the insouciance Trump previously displayed when shrugging off warnings that moving the capital of Israel to Jerusalem could incite another intifada. Claiming support for Ukraine was a waste of taxpayer dollars, he vetoed every attempt for an aid package. That hostility did modify, however, following his meeting with President Duda of Poland. Nevertheless for foreign readers, the Trump enigma remains, namely, how has such a figure come to dominate the party of Abraham Lincoln? Recorded here is a comment by Senator Lindsay Graham saying accolades paid to Trump by his followers at Mar-a-Lago would do North Korea proud.

The overall impression taken from this lively, informed publication is the aura of uncertainty conveyed by what it is describ- ing. Never absent from the key American actors involved is the anxiety of those skating across thin ice. That they might find safety in the law goes unmentioned, with no reference made to the significant ruling on Gaza issued by the International Court of Justice.

Despite some gaffes, including alarming NATO when questioning its unity in facing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden emerges as a solid collective security multilateralist. Overall his legacy is judged positively. Yet considering the licence with which the United States interpreted the UN Charter’s Article 51 regarding self-defence in the run up to the 2003 Iraq War, an expansiveness gladly emulated by Russia and Israel, there is a mote to the beam of Washington’s eye that it cannot ignore.

RODERIC ALLEY

Notes on reviewers

Dr Roderic Alley is senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington.

Prof Bethan Greener is head of school (people, environment and planning) at Massey University.

Dr Tim Fadgen is a senior lecturer in politics and international relations and associate director of the Public Policy Institute at the University of Auckland.