BOOK REVIEW: Trump's Australia: How Trumpism changed Australia and the shocking consequences for us of a second term

Author: Bruce Wolpe

Published by: Allen & Unwin, Melbourne, 2023, 320pp, $39.99.

In the context of a truly extraordinary US national election, Bruce Wolpe’s insightful book contains an examination of how the first Trump presidency (Trump I) reshaped global dynamics, particularly in relation to Australia, and he considers the potential implications of a second Trump term (Trump II) and how Australia should prepare for it.

Wolpe, a dual national of the United States and Australia, brings a wealth of expertise as a media and political analyst, having grown up in Washington DC and having lived in Australia for decades. He draws on insights gleaned from interviews with senior American and Australian officials and other commentators, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Central to his argument is Trump’s transactionalism, whereby the former president typically prioritised short-term gains over long-term stability. He characterises Trump’s first term as marked by ‘isolationism, protectionism, and nativism’ and ‘the most divisive and disruptive in modern history’, with a chaotic approach that favoured authoritarian leaders over democratic principles. Wolpe pulls no punches, saying ‘Trump is a double-barrelled authoritarian: he uses autocratic means to undercut democratic ends, and he uses the tools of democracy to bury democracy’. He warns that if Trump secures a second term, the consequences for US democracy could be dire, possibly leading to its unravelling as we know it.

Wolpe believes that a Trump II will not only maintain his previous foreign policy approaches but also will do so with even greater resolve, relatively unhindered by traditional checks and balances, given that he seeks to ‘radically reshape the federal government’ and fill ‘career posts with loyalists to him and his America First ideology’.

The book’s first part outlines Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy, which ignited strategic competition with China and introduced a new dynamic in international relations. Wolpe discusses the ‘spectacle diplomacy’ with North Korea and the formation of the AUKUS pact, predicting that these policies will likely persist under Trump II — although on things like AUKUS Trump will drive a harder bargain.

Wolpe then dives into the negative impacts of Trump’s policies for economic and climate issues. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership (and more broadly Trump’s retreat from global leadership) have left Australia in a precarious position, he believes, necessitating a re-evaluation of its own climate commitments and trade relationships.

In a compelling section, Wolpe examines how Trumpism has infiltrated Australian politics (via an ‘echo chamber effect’), eroding democratic norms, weakening trust in institutions and emboldening local extremists. The cultural wars and issues of race are thoroughly explored, revealing that while Australian conservatism is less extreme than its American counterpart, the influence of Trump’s divisive rhetoric cannot be under-estimated.

Wolpe also considers the potential for a Trumpist ideology to persist beyond Trump himself. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s policies are considered with this in mind. Wolpe can be forgiven for being wrong on this issue as his book was released in June 2023. Given recent developments — specifically Trump’s audacious pick of JD Vance as his vice president — it is now clear Vance is the heir apparent. Indeed, Vance is much better at packaging and conveying an American First ideology than Trump himself is. Vance is also connected to the emergent post-liberal New Right that has common cause with a forming counter-elite: Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Jeffrey Sachs, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr and others.

The final part of the book considers whether Australia can withstand the potential assault on democracy that a second Trump term would entail. Wolpe expresses optimism, citing Australia’s robust democratic norms and traditions, a reserve bank and high court less relatively prone to direct political influence and a strong Australian Electoral Commission. The latter includes logical districting and compulsory voting — factors that can help mitigate the influence of radical fringe groups and ambitious outsiders. Australia’s media system is also competitive, which prevents Murdoch’s outlets from dominating the discourse. Apparently, therefore, ‘Trumpism can never be replicated in Australia’. Really?

Wolpe urges his readers to consider some uncomfortable questions: what happens if Trump cuts a deal with China and abandons Taiwan? Could he withdraw US forces from South Korea and Japan? Could he increase the costs of Canberra purchasing Virginia-class submarines via AUKUS, and assert that all related production and servicing be done in the United States? Wolpe then considers a most dramatic possibility: could Australia’s strategic alignment with the United States survive Trump II if he dismantles democratic structures at home and illiberalism fully takes hold. He urges Australian policy-makers to reflect on this dilemma (and, I suggest, so should New Zealanders), emphasising the need for Australia to assert its own interests more vigorously. He recommends that the Australia–US alliance be maintained but that Canberra balance this by pursuing independent policies on trade and climate commitments, advocating for enhanced diplomacy, strengthening commitment to multilateral agreements, increasing its involvement in the Pacific Islands Forum and energising relationships with vital regional partners, like Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. In short, Canberra will have to learn to say ‘no’ more often to Washington and the potential for a more transactional relationship necessitates that Australia bolster its own strategic initiatives to hedge against unpredictable US policy in the region.

Wolpe’s book contains paradoxes: on one hand, Australian governments during Trump I were able to capably navigate the bilateral relationship (a ‘clear win’), yet Trump II will be so much worse that Australia will not be able to do the same again? Perhaps. At the same time, the Australia–US relationship is deeply embedded in a substrate of defence and intelligence links (not to mention AUKUS — an initiative that militarily-industrially is wedding them together) that stretch far beyond relations at the prime ministerial and presidential level. This, presumably, offers a lot of ballast for the relationship.

More could have been said as to why Trumpism exists, and now looks set to live on irrespective of the 2024 election and even Trump himself. It is the product of structural issues — decades of growing socio-economic inequality, hollowing out of American industry and manufacturing, wage stagnation and lib- eral elites who seemingly ‘look down’ on the Americans that have been left behind. Biden is attempting to respond to this via his ‘foreign policy for the middle class’ and industrial policy. But will it be enough? How do we gauge this and if it is/is not how may that change US domestic politics in the years to come? How will that influence US foreign policy and thus Australia?

A final paradox: while Trump’s transactionalism causes Wolpe consternation, would the obverse be better: an ideologicallydriven Trump? Trump, after all, did not start any new wars. He rocked the cage (and the world) vis-à-vis North Korea and Iran, but his unpredictability (which may be an outgrowth of his lack of ideological conviction) did seem to keep most revisionist actors in check. Admittedly, there is also no guarantee Trump will play his hand similarly should he return and thus Wolpe’s charge that Trump II may be completely unhinged and unrestrained should not be lightly dismissed.

In concluding his analysis, Wolpe underscores the existential competition between autocratic and democratic systems, urging Australia to be vigilant and recognise that democracy can be revitalised and made to work effectively. The stakes are high — not just for the United States and Australia, but for the global order at large. Overall, the book offers a nuanced understanding of how the legacy of Trump's presidency continues to influence the world stage and what may await us should the former president pull off one of the most astonishing comebacks in modern American political history.

REUBEN STEFF

Dr Reuben Steff is a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of Waikato.