Democracy, peace and stability

Joanne Ou comments on the shared values of the New Zealand–Taiwan partnership.

Taiwan faces immense challenges. It has, in recent decades, become a target of hybrid aggression by the People’s Republic of China, with the Taiwan Strait a flashpoint that could trigger catastrophic large-scale wars. PRC incursions into Taiwan air and sea space and grey zone harassment happen almost on a daily basis. Taiwan stands as a beacon of democracy and a mirror of transformation from dictatorship to a free society. Despite the severe disadvantages it faces, it has become a pivotal player in global technology supply chains. It manufactures more than 64 per cent of the world’s semiconductors and 92 per cent of the most advanced chips.

We find ourselves in a world increasingly fraught with uncertainty and instability. From Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine to North Korea’s unpredictable rocket and missile launches; from dangerous vessel collisions in the South China Sea to escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait. These conflicts underscore how authoritarian regimes prioritise their political agenda to the detriment of human dignity, trade development and regional peace. In a time of autocratic expansionism, democracies must enhance collaboration with each other, to safeguard our shared values, national security and international rules-based order.

Situated nearly 9000 kilometres from New Zealand, Taiwan stands as a beacon of democracy and a mirror of transformation from dictatorship to a free society. The island nation not only possesses common values with Aotearoa New Zealand but also shares whakapapa ties. It manufactures more than 64 per cent of the world’s semiconductors and 92 per cent of the most advanced chips, making it a pivotal player in global technology supply chains. The challenges Taiwan faces today are survival issues, because of the Chinese Communist Party’s global ambition of ‘Rejuvenation by 2049’.

In recent decades, Taiwan has become a target of hybrid aggression by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the Taiwan Strait is a flashpoint that could trigger catastrophic largescale wars. PRC incursions to Taiwan air and sea space and grey zone harassment happen almost on a daily basis. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also conducted military drills encircling Taiwan, showcasing China’s growing military might. For China, no one should stand in its way of a ‘unified and rejuvenated Chinese nation’, a goal to be achieved by force if necessary. These manoeuvres, which include repeated violations of Taiwan’s airspace and waters and daily incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, are designed to coerce Taiwan, to create a ‘new normal’ with constant transgression and intimidation.

By testing international responses, the PRC persistently undermines Taiwan’s sovereignty, and seeks to reshape the status quo and balance of power in its favour. The international community must heed the lessons of past world wars: allowing such indulgences only emboldens autocracies to push boundaries further, undermining global stability and the existing status quo and jeopardising principles of international law, such as freedom of navigation and overflight.

The Taiwan government deeply appreciates the New Zealand government’s constant calls for de-escalation of tension, for the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, for there to be no unilateral changes to the status quo and no use of force, threats or coercion, and for emphasising that differences must be resolved only through dialogue and peaceful means. Such voices for peace and joint action by the international community can effectively ease tensions and potential conflict across the Taiwan Strait.

Important difference

For years, the PRC has imposed on the world its version of the ‘one-China principle’, while most countries have instead their own ‘one-China policy’. Like most democracies, New Zealand only ‘acknowledges’ in the 1972 joint communiqué PRC territorial claims, but did not ‘recognise’ them. In other words, the majority of countries have expressed their understanding of, but not agreement with China’s sovereignty proclamations over Taiwan. From 193 countries in the world, 136 nations, like New Zealand, have their own one-China policy, which differs in content from the PRC’s one-China principle.

China’s actions are not confined to military threats alone. It not only manipulates each country’s independent China policy but also distorts the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, conflating it with PRC’s one-China principle. The purpose is to use the resolution as a justification for its eventual military invasion of Taiwan.

Resolution 2758 only addressed the question of China’s seat at the United Nations. It neither stated that Taiwan is a part of the PRC, nor granted the PRC the sovereign right to represent the people of Taiwan in international organisations. As a matter of fact, the resolution did not mention Taiwan at all, much less define the legal status of Taiwan. The resolution did not reflect the United Nations’ institutional position, nor an international consensus about the PRC’s claims over Taiwan; it just resolved the China UN seat question. Over the years, the CCP manipulated its interpretation and used Resolution 2758 to fulfil its political purposes.

Recently, China has introduced extra-territorial legal measures against Taiwanese or any foreign citizens who spoke out against or dared to disagree with PRC territorial claims. Those ‘secessionists’ are elevated to the category of ‘die-hard separatists’, and the penalties for independentists who commit ‘statecrimes’ are grave, including capital punishment, and being tracked down internationally through overseas united front operations. This extra-territorial jurisdiction is deeply disturbing, as it runs against principles of criminal law, in that it has no statute of limitation on prosecutions, and court trials can be conducted ‘in absentia’.

The controversial long-arm jurisdiction mirrors China’s 2020 imposition of national security laws in Hong Kong, which severely curtailed dissent and human rights activists. The Basic Law of Hong Kong eroded the autonomy and pluralism of the Pearl of Orient; the assurance of ‘One Country, Two Systems’ became an empty promise. Instead of 50 years of autonomy, Hong Kong’s free society was destroyed in just 24 years.

Today, the situation in the Taiwan Strait illustrates how China is applying a familiar playbook to achieve its political ambitions. By escalating these threats and expanding its legal long reach, China is signaling its intent to undermine UN resolutions and the existing global order and force compliance through fear, repression and intimidation.

Foreign interference

China’s ambition extends well beyond its borders across the Taiwan Strait, affecting global order and trade stability through sophisticated manoeuvring of economic coercion and foreign interference.

As a major global market and the primary trading partner for many countries, China leverages trade dependency, exploiting the vulnerability of its trading partners in order to advance its geopolitical requests. Since 2022, it has banned more than 2450 agricultural and fishery products from Taiwan. However, Taiwan is not an isolated case. The PRC’s weaponisation of trade and tourism has been equally targeted at Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Mongolia, the United States, Norway, Lithuania and other European Union countries.

Taiwan also became a testing ground for China’s foreign interference strategies, exploiting its democratic openness and the kindness of its people. Just to name a few: disinformation divulgation and AI generated content, cognitive warfare, cyber-attacks and obstruction of election processes and parliamentary functions. In Taiwan, the PRC also remains as the main source of intelligence concerns, posing severe and complex challenges to our society’s transparency, democratic vitality, media and civil organisations’ pluralism.

China’s interference is not limited to Taiwan; similar infiltra- tion tactics have been identified in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and now in New Zealand.1 In all these countries, instances of foreign interference have raised concerns among governmental officials and the public. Now alerted, democracies will remain vigilant, continue to raise public awareness and open discourse on how to discern and counter interference and espionage.

Failing to hold authoritarian regimes accountable only emboldens them to act with impunity, pushing the boundaries of acceptable behaviour in the international community. It is crucial for democratic nations to recognise and confront these threats before they undermine the foundations of our freedom and the well-functioning of our democratic institutions.

Indispensable player

Taiwan, located at the centre of the First Island Chain, stands as a forefront nation containing the rising tide of authoritarianism. Ensuring peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is vital for global prosperity and the rules-based order. Taiwan is not merely an island; it is an indispensable player in the global supply chain, dominating global high-end semiconductor manufacturing. It occupies a strategic geographic position: more than 50 per cent of the world’s seaborne trade passes freely through the waters of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is also a busy air traffic hub, its Taipei Flight Information Region (FIR) controlling around 2 million flights globally, accommodating more than 72 million travelers, including 560,000 passengers from Australia and New Zealand. Air New Zealand has three direct flights weekly from Auckland to Taipei. According to economists, potential consequences of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait could soar to an alarming US$10 trillion global loss, representing at least one-tenth of the world’s total GDP. The price tag of Chinese ambition is simply too costly, dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis.²

Beyond the economic impacts, the geopolitical implications are even more profound. If Taiwan were to be swallowed by a power-hungry PRC regime, China might gain a chokehold over both global supply of advanced semiconductors and crucial maritime routes. Given Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, China’s capture of Taiwan would reposition its weapons and military assets to hold the rest of Asia hostage to its demands.3 Tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea would be further heightened.

Obtaining Taiwan is just China’s first step to realising its global predominance dreams. No country in recent decades has been expanding its military might with greater speed, intensity and clear intention than the PRC.⁴ The CCP has been quite vocal about achieving its ambition through military invasion, strangulation by blockade, coercive annexation and economic coercion. Defending Taiwan is not about safeguarding a single island — it is about defending democratic values, upholding freedom of navigation and overflight, preserving global economic stability and, most importantly, deterring the annexation attempts of a totalitarian aggressor whose appetite seems insatiable.

Strengthening resilience

In response to concerns that potential conflict across the Taiwan Strait might involve other countries, Taiwan has outlined a comprehensive approach to safeguard its security, known as the ‘Four Pillars of Peace’ Action Plan. This includes enhancing national defence to establish credible deterrence, demonstrating a commitment to self-defence, developing asymmetric com- bat capabilities, strengthening economic resilience and fostering stable yet principled leadership across the Strait.

We believe that preventing a war across the Taiwan Strait is not only necessary but also totally feasible, that the preservation of peace is only possible through strength and that small states can prevail by fighting smart. To maintain peace, democracies must be united and prepared for the worst case scenario. Democracies must show the determination, the will and capability to fight effectively, and to fight smartly. We must let China, Russia, North Korea and other autocracies know that in launching a needless war, they would face a high probability of defeat, resulting in the leaders’ personal reputation being ruined and economic disaster. It is only through unity, readiness, strength and resolve that democracies can deter and dissuade dictators’ expansionist ambitions.

Values-based policy

The new government of Taiwan, inaugurated in May, has introduced ‘values-based diplomacy’. This approach emphasises the importance of shared-values partnership with like-minded countries in maintaining regional stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific region. Deepening co-operation with like-minded countries — such as New Zealand, Australia, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union — will bolster the resilience of democracies against coercive threats and serve as a collective deterrent to authoritarian regimes. When faced with aggression, it is crucial for more voices to stand up in defence of shared values, such as freedom, democracy, human rights, sustainable development and global inclusiveness.

Recognising that economic security is integral to national security, Taiwan has focused on becoming a reliable and able partner in secured global supply chains by diversifying investment in markets. As a result, Taiwan’s trade volume with the PRC has decreased from 50 per cent in 2010 to 28 per cent in 2023; while its overseas investment to China has dropped significantly from 85 per cent to currently 11 per cent.

To further enhance industrial capabilities, Taiwan has identified five key sectors for development: semiconductors, artificial intelligence, military, security and surveillance and communications. This strategic focus aims to strengthen the country’s economy resilience, while ensuring its national security in an increasingly complex global landscape.

International organisations

It is disheartening that our people must continually struggle for recognition and representation, seeking a fair chance to be heard and treated equally in international arenas. Not only has Taiwan been excluded from the UN system since 1971 but also the 24 million Taiwanese citizens and journalists are being banned from accessing UN premises, attending meetings and engaging in newsgathering. Nowadays, the UN Secretariat, claiming that it is following Resolution 2758, requests citizens from Taiwan to present an identity document from China.

While the United Nations has successfully included both North and South Korea and granted observer status to Palestinians, Taiwan remains excluded and discriminated against by the UN agencies because they have wrongly embraced the PRC’s claims. This exclusion runs against the principles enshrined in the UN Charter, which recognises in its preamble ‘We the people’ and equal sovereign rights for all nations, regardless of the size of the country.

The United Nations’ mission is to promote international peace and security, yet Taiwan’s exclusion from key international forums impairs its ability to obtain timely information to protect its 24 million people and to make a contribution to the world. As a result, transnational efforts to overcome global challenges remain ineffective. Taiwan calls for the United Nations to ‘return to neutrality’ and resume its role as an honest broker and negotiator of peace and facilitator of dialogue, in line with its founding principles.

Including Taiwan in international organisations, such as the WHO, United Nations, ICAO, Interpol, UNFCCC among others, is not merely about representation; it is essential for effective global governance. Taiwan offers valuable expertise and abundant resources, especially in technology and regional security that would benefit international discussions, humanitarian assistance and collective efforts to tackle global challenges.

Loophole plugging

Since 1993 Taiwan has actively participated in the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) as a development partner, addressing the pressing challenges faced by Pacific Islands nations. Aligning with PIF centrality and the ‘Pacific Way’, Taiwan collaborates with member nations and like-minded democracies to implement crucial development programmes in agriculture, healthcare, sustainable energy, climate change and education with scholarships for all members. These efforts underscore Taiwan’s commitment and ability to tackling global issues alongside the international community.

However, during this year’s 53rd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting, discussions were overshadowed by China’s and its proxies’ attempt to prevent Taiwan’s continuous engagement, diverting attention from real crucial issues of ‘Pacific Priorities’. This incident reflects a broader pattern where political agendas of non-democracies hinder collective efforts on real imperative issues, such as climate change, transnational crimes and transmittable diseases.

For instance, in the face of climate change, Taiwan has proactively aligned with the rest of the world, enacting the Climate Change Response Act, and climate accountability legislation, codifying the ‘2050 Zero-Net Emission Goal’ into law, despite Taiwan’s exclusion from the UNFCCC. By elevating the net-zero targets from policy declaration to a legal requirement, Taiwan has demonstrated its determination to cut emissions. In addition, the Taiwan government is setting up a carbon pricing mechanism and introducing financial incentives to guide businesses toward sustainable development. These policies promoting low-carbon technologies highlight Taiwan’s commitment to sustainability, emphasising that every contribution matters in combating climate change.

Similarly, Taiwan’s exclusion from Interpol for the past 40 years poses serious risks in combating transnational crimes. Today we are facing new forms of transnational crime that transcend borders, such as online scams, human trafficking and the extreme violence of internet-facilitated terrorism. As New

Zealand’s Christchurch Call well put it: ‘global problems require global solutions’.

Despite being one of the safest countries, Taiwan’s lack of access to Interpol’s criminal intelligence information (Interpol i-24/7 system) leaves it vulnerable to transnational crime. Without the island nation’s participation, there is a gap in the global crime prevention network; excluding Taiwan creates a loophole for criminals to have their way. Only by establishing a seamless police alliance can the world successfully combat transnational crimes. Our law enforcement officers can best work without political obstruction. After all, sharing crucial information and providing timely assistance can make a difference in saving the lives of many.⁵

These examples illustrate how political biases undermine global collaboration in addressing urgent issues. Excluding Taiwan not only violates the rights of its 24 million people but also poses a significant threat to global security and sustainability. Embracing Taiwan as a partner in tackling these global challenges is essential for a safer and more sustainable world.

Democratic beacon

Taiwan stands as a beacon of democracy, a force for good and a reliable partner for global collaboration. It also serves as an example for China’s potential transformation into a democracy. The 1.4 billion Chinese people deserve the same freedoms and democratic rights that we all cherish; if Taiwan can become democratic, so can China!

As a global technological powerhouse and a frontline state against the expansion of autocracies, Taiwan is ready and able to partner with like-minded democracies and international organisations. Global challenges require imperative global collaboration; climate change, transmittable diseases, international aviation safety, transnational crimes, foreign interference and violent extremism are just a few issues that demand international co-operative action.

While the world strives for peace and stability, we must not appease aggression or tolerate annexation. As President Ronald Reagan well put it: ‘To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means to preserve peace’. Peace is only possible through building up strength. Raising public awareness and encouraging discourse are crucial steps; enhancing defence capability with a holistic plan is a necessary action to ensure survival. For democracies to work together, for smaller countries to fight smart, these are essential self-protective measures in an era of geopolitical instability.

We can harbour hope, but not illusions. Facing the expansionist ambition of authoritarian regimes, we should carefully discern their true intentions by observing their actions, rather than merely believing their words. ‘Actions speak louder’: this old saying is still true today. In a time when the international rules-based order is under threat, it is crucial to take decisive actions to protect the status quo. Our actions or hesitation today will define the kind of world we leave to the next generation.

Joanne Ou is mission head of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New Zealand. This article is based on the speech she gave to the NZIIA’s Wellington branch at Victoria University of Wellington on 11 September 2024.

Notes

1. www.nzsis.govt.nz/assets/NZSIS-Documents/New-Zealands-Secu rity-Threat-Environment-2024.pdf.

2. newsroom.co.nz/2024/09/16/taiwan-on-a-mission-to-win-heartsand-minds-at-critical-moment/.

3. Matt Pottinger (ed), The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan (Stanford, 2024).

4. media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILI TARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF.

5. www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350111229/letters-editor-november-16.