Horizon 2045 Framework for Change

FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

HORIZON 2045: FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 OUR APPROACH........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 THE THREE HORIZONS............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10

HORIZON 1 WHAT ARE WE AIMING TO DISRUPT? MOVING A SYSTEM..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 VISUALIZING THE NUCLEAR SYSTEM.................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 THE SYSTEMS MAP..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24 NUCLEAR EFFECTS AT SCALE ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37

TABLE OF CONTENTS

HORIZON 2 HOW WILL WE DRIVE CHANGE FORWARD? PLACES TO INTERVENE IN THE SYSTEM ................................................................................................................................................................................ 40

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BUILDING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 49

HORIZON 3 WHAT ARE WE AIMING TO CREATE? STRATEGIC FORESIGHT............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 FORCES OF CHANGE ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 HORIZON SCANNING .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 61 DEFINING THE FUTURE............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67

A CALL TO ACTION THE PROMISE OF A REIMAGINED GLOBAL SECURITY...................................................................................................................................................... 74 ABOUT HORIZON 2045............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 76 PARTNERS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 77 GET INVOLVED............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 78

HORIZON 2045

Horizon 2045 is an initiative to secure the long-term future,

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starting with bringing an end to the nuclear weapons century.

Spearheaded by N Square, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and Rhode Island School of Design’s Center for Complexty, Horizon 2045 is advancing a unique approach to reimagining global security that is informed by systems thinking, strategic foresight, and an awareness of the entanglement of nuclear weapons with other existential threats. What we accomplish and learn by achieving a nuclear prohibition will bring collateral lessons for changing other systems, for reimagining security and threat management, and for creating the kinds of institutions, tools, and infrastructure that a more secure future requires.

Horizon 2045 launched in 2020 in response to both a challenge and an opportunity. All around us is evidence that we humans are confronting a proliferation of existential threats—from pandemics to rising autocracy, from radical economic inequities

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INTRO

to the heat waves, floods, migrations, extinctions, and melting ice of climate change—that our current systems, structures, and approaches are not designed for. To say that we are living in a time of rapid flux and growing public concern about the future is putting it lightly. What we are is deep inside the Anthropocene, the geological era that some argue began with the 1945 Trinity Test, the first detonation of a nuclear bomb—an era characterized by humankind’s newfound capacity to destroy itself and irevocably alter life on the planet.

We believe it is now incumbent upon humanity to think holistically about the dynamics that have led us to this moment and to reengineer our systems in ways that prepare us to address the thicket of interconnected anthropogenic and natural threats that

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INTRO

now confront us—not just for the benefit of current generations but for those who come after us, and for those who come after them. It is our responsibility to develop new structures, agreements, and behaviors purpose-built for the world ahead.

We believe that the achievement of a full nuclear weapons prohibition by the middle of this century—a world-changing accomplishment by itself—will pave the way toward these and other critical transformations.

While Horizon 2045’s most obvious goal is to make the world safe from the preventable threat of nuclear catastrophe, the superordinate goal driving our research, our experiments, our team, and our investments is to bring about a future in which we

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INTRO

have a new framework for human and planetary security and a more authentically and perpetually secure planet. We aim to shift the Anthropocene from an era marked by enduring threats to an era in which we rise to the challenge of prioritizing and tackling our planet’s most vexing challenges, deeply changing the dynamics of our past and inventing new dynamics designed for a brighter future.

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HORIZON 2045

Humankind, having created the nuclear threat, must now resolve that threat. Doing so will help us address the thicket of other anthropogenic and natural threats confronting us.

Anyone can observe today that the world is in a period of deep and rapid transforma-

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tion. Many of the old stories we use to make sense of the world, and the systems that organize our world, are crumbling. We are seeing new urgency and public demand

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to solve the existential threats that confront us and move to a more secure future.

The mental models that drive our behaviors and shape our perspectives are curving in new directions. Institutions at all scales are changing in form and practice.

Indeed, we are living within a kind of status quo void where massive change feels both impossible and just within our reach. With so much change upon us, what once seemed improbable can also begin to feel inevitable — including the elimination of nuclear weapons.

IT’S TIME

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HORIZON 2045

OUR APPROACH

THE HORIZON 2045 APPROACH FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

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HORIZON 2045

REIMAGINING GLOBAL SECURITY

LINKING EXISTENTIAL THREATS

Overcoming our perilous present will require

Nuclear weapons are part of an inter-

a more expansive definition of global security

twined set of threats facing humanity.

and a new system for achieving and maintain-

By exploring intersections between

ing it. We seek to redefine security as a bigger

nuclear weapons and other existential

system in which humanity can flourish free

threats like climate change and biological

from the risk of existential threats.

pathogens, we can draw new resources, incent innovation, increase the surface area for collaboration and shared learning, and lay the groundwork for a much larger-scale effort.

THE HORIZON 2045 APPROACH

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HORIZON 2045

A SYSTEMS APPROACH

LONG-TERM THINKING

Like all wicked problems, the nuclear

Horizon 2045 aims for deep and durable

problem is a systems problem — that is,

long-term disruption. We are using the

a complex, multifactorial problem driven

tools of strategic foresight to articulate a

by an interplay between policies and pro-

more compelling, ambitious, and optimis-

cedures, human actions and decisions,

tic future beyond nuclear weapons while

infrastructure, incentives, and beliefs and

specifying the types of innovation and

assumptions. Studying the deeply inter-

engagement it will require — with all of that

dependent factors driving a system and

work driven by intelligent interpretation of

holding it in place also reveals potential

both qualitative and quantitative data.

areas for leverage.

BUILDING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE There are complementary, like-minded efforts underway in other threat spaces, nearly all of them operating independently.

We are building a hub for these efforts, drawing people, ideas, and networks together into a diverse multi-threat community of practice focused on shared learning and collaboration.

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HORIZON 2045

THE THREE HORIZONS

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10 FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

HORIZON 1

HORIZON 2

HORIZON 3

What are we aiming to disrupt?

How will we drive change forward?

What are we aiming to create?

HORIZON 2045

The three horizons framework, a tool well known in the strategic foresight community, serves as scaffolding for this long-term work. The first horizon represents the challenges in our present, the third horizon our aspirations for the future, and the second horizon a bridge between the two, or a period of purposeful experimentation, investment, and intervention designed to test ways to move a system most effectively. When applied to any complex system, this framework helps illuminate what is worth conserving from the past and present, what to let go of or disrupt, the contours and requirements of the better future we want to compel, and what types of innovation are most promising for creating that change.

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THE THREE HORIZONS

Horizon 1 (the present) centers on the nuclear system. The nuclear system comprises a complex network of components and interactions that makes it difficult for anyone to comprehend both the whole and its parts. The goal of our Horizon 1 work is to better understand the full contours of the nuclear system — including its characteristics, the interplay between elements, the underlying beliefs and mental models that drive it, and how it is nested within and connected to other systems — in order to gain the information necessary to transform it.

HORIZON 1 What are we aiming to disrupt?

The nuclear system is hard to describe, dynamic in nature, and rife with competing interests and interdependencies.

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THE THREE HORIZONS

Horizon 2 (the bridge) defines the opportunity space between the first and third horizons. It captures the types of specific interventions — big and small, rapid and long term — that will help us to take advantage of the frailties of the current system and the opportunities presented by changes to the wider contextual landscape so that we can help move the system toward the future we prefer. Horizon 2 also includes purposeful outreach and connection, drawing decision-makers and wider publics into both the conversation and the work of building new systems for maintaining and ensuring global security.

HORIZON 2 How will we drive change forward?

The nuclear system is not isolated, though it is often viewed as such. Rather, it is situated within a growing landscape of systems and dynamics that are increasingly connected and interrelated.

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THE THREE HORIZONS

If Horizon 1 is about better seeing the system, then Horizon 3 (the future) is about seeing beyond the system, building a detailed understanding of what could replace it and how we might get there. Thinking about the wider future first, and then considering the implications for the nuclear system, reveals a larger canvas, highlighting a broader set of opportunities to bring about real and lasting change and to build a shared vision of a future beyond existential risks.

HORIZON 3 What are we aiming to create?

We envision a future in which our systems are reimagined and reinvented in ways that bolster the security and longevity of our planet and all the life it supports.

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HORIZON 1

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The nuclear weapons problem is a systems problem — that is, a complex, multifactorial problem driven by an interplay between policies and procedures, human actions and decisions, infrastructure, incentives, and beliefs and assumptions. Like most systems problems, it is hard to describe, dynamic in nature, and rife with competing interests and interdependencies. The current global nuclear system comprises multiple dynamics relating to controlling nuclear materials and weapons, nuclear weapon infrastructure and investments, drivers of risks of nuclear weapons use, power and authority structures, structural discrimination, dynamics that help sustain the status quo, and dynamics working to resist it. Some aspects of the system have been developed intentionally; others have emerged over time as consequences of, or reactions to, other elements. When we say “the system” or “the nuclear system,”

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HORIZON 1

our definition includes all of this.

HORIZON 1 What are we aiming to disrupt?

This whole planet is systems interacting with systems embedded in systems that are conglomerations of systems. Decades of social change work tells us that to move a system, we can’t just be reactive to events of the moment. We have to get underneath what is visible, all the way down to the structures and beliefs at the base layer of a system. We have to challenge the mental models that drive a system, sustain it, and protect the status quo.

If our future is at risk, then what we believe shapes our capacity to address that risk.

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Mental models are powerful, stubborn, and often unconscious — but systems change cannot happen if we do not aim to upend them. The behaviors, motivations, beliefs, and mental models of people orbiting in and around the nuclear system are not external

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to it — they are a core part of it. We believe that going straight into the difficult work of confronting values and beliefs about nuclear weapons will enable the kind of transformation that has eluded us so far.

MOVING A SYSTEM

WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?

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CALLOUT

Systems change means exposing and challenging old mental models—and pushing for new ones.

If we want to improve outcomes, we have to uncover, understand, and influence change within the system that produces them. Systems thinking is both a mindset and a set of tools that help us to look more deeply at complex issues, exploring the interconnected, messy, and unpredictable interplay between humans and the environments in which we operate.1 Systems thinking helps us make sense of patterns from the past and unpack current dynamics so we can better understand and identify new ways to drive change.

Systems are always in flux as they respond to both internal and external disruptions. Efforts to change a dynamic system reward a learning orientation: We constantly have to listen to what is happening, make sense of it, and adjust accordingly. Just like long-term thinking, systems work relies on acute attention to and keen analysis of social, cultural, political, economic, and technological changes and how they influence our mental models.

HORIZON 1

1 D. H. McCauley, “Failing With Single-Point Solutions: Systems Thinking for National Security,” Small Wars Journal, 29 Sept 2015.

WHAT ARE MENTAL MODELS?

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CALLOUT

Mental models are our deeply held, deeply internal, and often unconscious ways of understanding how the world, or a particular part of the world, works. They are a mix of ideas, images, and beliefs that ground us; they feel familiar and comfortable. Mental models can both influence and be influenced by myths and metaphors (notable in the nuclear field, which regularly refers to a “priesthood” and to the potential for “Armageddon”). The ways we feel about and make sense of the world are shaped, in part, by society and culture, but mental models can also be passed down through families. They are then reinforced — or challenged — by our experiences of and in the world.

Our mental models are often not specific to a given system. However, the context of the system we’re working in and thinking about can “activate” a particular mental model we already hold. By visualizing or mapping a complex system, we can become conscious of, and make more visible to ourselves and others, our underlying mental models, which allows us to challenge and explore them more deeply.

HORIZON 1

The nuclear weapon system is sprawling and secretive, maintaining itself and resisting change through a complex set of dynamics. We’ve used causal loop diagramming — a mapping tool that helps visualize complex systems and how different variables within these systems interrelate — to create a representation of the present system. We understand the Horizon 2045 systems map to be the first and only map of the behaviors and

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mental models that underpin the nuclear weapons status quo.

VISUALIZING THE NUCLEAR SYSTEM

What underlying patterns and

VISUALIZING THE NUCLEAR SYSTEM

interactions drive the system?

What is the system beyond

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what we think it is?

The dynamics depicted in the systems map are not the institutions or structures that are in the system, but rather the persistent, hidden, underlying behaviors and dynamics of the system that are driving the status quo. The map shows us who the key stakeholders are in each of the nodes and their role — along with the benefits and challenges involved — in the current system, and grants us a new ability to explore how high-impact projects could help change or shift the system in some way. As one nuclear expert put it: “This is a completely new way of conceiving the nuclear threat. Trying to understand a system at the meta level and what’s driving actors in the system is totally new.”

HORIZON 1

The Horizon 2045 systems map creates a “topview” of the current state, depicting the dynamics, mental models, and behaviors that are driving the status quo. It also reveals the system’s frailties and leverage points. The map provides various ways to enter into and think about the system depending on interest and orientation. For instance, a scholar of political power dynamics might be drawn to enter the map through one node while nuclear deterrence advocates might enter through another, but each would quickly find their way to other countervailing dynamics and interests. Funders might use the map to identify areas of underinvestment, while innovators could use it to pinpoint opportunities CHAPTER

to drive novel forms of impact. In this way, the map has wide application but also draws

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various users into shared conversation about the system and its dynamics.

THE SYSTEMS MAP

HORIZON 2045 NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYSTEMS MAP Controlling Nuclear Weapons & Materials

Nuclear Disarmament

Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use

Nuclear Weapons Utility

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Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure & Investments

Decline of the State

Power & Authority Structure

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Consequences / Harms

External Dynamics

Nuclear Weapons System Dynamics

HORIZON 1

Structural Discrimination

Beliefs about Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Weapons Harms

Scan the QR code to learn more about the systems map.

We use this simplified diagram to reference the systems map throughout this document.

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THE SYSTEMS MAP

The Horizon 2045 systems map serves as a tool for identifying levers for change, testing our strategies, and building a broader shared understanding of the system’s complex dynamics.

The map itself is a work in progress. We continue to rigorously test the map with diverse audiences, using feedback and insight from those sessions to refine and improve both the configuration of the map and the stories and strategies that we see emerging from it.

HORIZON 1

To date, our work to untangle the complexities of the present-day nuclear system in order to create a clearer picture of how it operates and how it might be influenced has revealed a set of deeply interdependent factors that are driving the system, serving to hold it in place, and making it vulnerable to disruption. Together, these factors paint a picture of a system ripe for transformation, pinpointing areas where there might be

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potential for leverage.

THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS

The system is doing both more and less than it purports to do.

On July 16, 1945, at 5:45am, the first nuclear detonation lit up the skies above the

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New Mexico desert with a fireball brighter than the sun. In the aftermath of what can only be described as a world-changing experiment, a post hoc system emerged.

It was not “designed” per se. Rather, a complex set of dynamics, institutions, norms, laws, and beliefs have evolved over decades to manage the risks of nuclear materials and weapons.

It’s tidy to think of the nuclear system as a bounded, technocratic system that can be controlled — but it isn’t. We have created a problem that is very difficult to fix, not least because the existence and maintenance of nuclear weapons generate enormous profit and power. This sprawling system is not designed to protect humanity. Instead, the system has curled itself around the purpose of self-protection and is therefore protecting an existential threat. And if the current nuclear system is not protecting us now, it certainly will not be doing it 20 or 30 years into the future when the needs and issues facing humanity will have changed dramatically. The system has not adapted to the changes in the world; it is almost completely disconnected from today’s circumstances. It is also disconnected from — and stands in opposition to — the future we want.

beliefs and assumptions

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THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS

The system runs on unproven

The system is self-isolating

HORIZON 1

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The system is riddled with risk

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The system creates and

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perpetuates deep inequity

The system has mechanisms for resisting change

HORIZON 1

THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

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The system runs on unproven beliefs and assumptions.

CORE BELIEFS

ROOT MYTHS

POLARIZED VISION / PURPOSE

The system is driven by untestable

Underlying myths prop up the system

beliefs, including: nuclear weapons are

and feed a willingness to maintain nuclear

The system has multiple conflicting,

a source of national security, the risks of

weapons, including: Western anthropo-

incompatible, and often mutually exclu-

disarmament are greater than the risks

centrism (humans are the most import-

sive ideologies and understandings of

of possession, there could be a winner

ant entity in the universe), the idea that

the role of nuclear weapons in providing

in a nuclear war, and nuclear deterrence

competing states must win at the expense

security, whether risks of nuclear wea-

theory “works.” Meanwhile, neither the

of others and that cooperation is self-sacri-

pons can be managed, and the desirability

state nor the system can imagine a future

fice, and traditional notions of colonialism.

of a world free of nuclear weapons.

in which they do not exist or are rendered anachronistic.

HORIZON 1

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THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS

The system is self-isolating.

SILOED

OPAQUE

The system is largely closed off from

The system’s lack of transparency and

adjacent fields, issues, and movements,

reliance on inaccessible techno-strategic

ignoring the interconnected nature of

language alienate lay audiences, close

systems, the truly global risks and impact

off understanding and debate, and keep

of nuclear weapons, and the exponential

it removed both from public view and

value of intersectionality and collaboration

engagement and from necessary scrutiny

for problem-solving.

and accountability.

OSSIFIED

NARROW

Performative/ritualized statements

The system is addicted to its own ex-

and interactions dominate the space,

pertise and largely unreceptive to new

squashing inquiry and novel interaction.

approaches and ways of knowing that

The bureaucratization of this issue space

would widen the usual set of perspectives

and its efforts draws it further away from

and engage new audiences.

civil society.

HORIZON 1

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THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS

The system is riddled with risk.

ACCIDENTS AND CLOSE CALLS

WIDENING THREATS Nuclear weapons are highly vulnerable

Since the 1950s hundreds of nuclear

to cyber-threats, miscalculations, human

weapon incidents and accidents have

error, and other dangers. The system in

occurred, leading to deaths, radioactive

which they sit faces a host of broader, con-

contamination, and non-nuclear explo-

textual global challenges that it is neither

sions and fires involving nuclear weapon

accounting nor preparing for.

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systems. Many other accidents or close calls have been averted by luck or human intervention, and the likelihood of more happening keeps growing.

ESCALATION BIAS

RISK BLINDNESS

The system bends toward escalation,

There is disagreement about the system’s

requiring states to continually hold

vulnerabilities and how to manage them,

military exercises, rehearse pushing

as well as avoidance of serious discussion

the button, and otherwise appear

about the risks of nuclear deterrence and

willing to use nuclear weapons for deter-

the consequences of both the possession

rence to be “credible.” There are more

and use of nuclear weapons. As a result,

mechanisms and habits to support ramp-

the system is not taking sufficient action

ing up and increasing risk than ramping

to understand, address, and avoid these

down/de-escalating.

knowable dangers.

HORIZON 1

THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS

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The system creates and perpetuates deep inequity.

UNDEMOCRATIC

IMPERIALIST

Only a limited group of individuals

Nuclear weapons grant dramatically more

have the authority to shape or influence

global power to nuclear weapon states

world-changing decisions about nuclear

than non-nuclear weapon states. Front-

weapons. This exclusivity stands in sharp

line communities that have been most

contrast to the scale of the impact if weap-

impacted by nuclear weapons have had

ons are ever used.

little or no voice or rights when it comes to

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nuclear decisions and policies.

BLINKERED

ANTI-PLANET, ANTI-POSTERITY

The system is dominated by insular national security considerations, render-

The problems created by the lifecycle

ing it unable or unwilling to factor broader

and potential use of nuclear weapons are

human security into its decision-making.

planetary yet considered narrowly. The

The devastating human and environmen-

well-being of the planet, its diverse envi-

tal impacts of nuclear weapons — includ-

ronments, and non-human living beings

ing secondary impacts — are not well un-

are not considered; neither are the rights

derstood and almost entirely disregarded

and welfare of future generations.

by governments of nuclear weapon states.

HORIZON 1

THE SYSTEM’S CORE CHARACTERISTICS

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The system has mechanisms for resisting change.

INHERENTLY COMPLEX

EMBEDDED

SELF-PERPETUATING

The nuclear system is technically, politi-

The system is well established, expensive

Nuclear deterrence theory presents a kind

cally, culturally, and economically complex

to maintain, supports a vast enterprise

of circular logic: The belief that nuclear

and operates within an even more com-

that provides thousands of jobs, and de-

threats will prevent nuclear war drives

plex and rapidly evolving global security

livers significant profits to powerful actors.

states to maintain nuclear deterrence and

architecture, making foundational change

By framing the possession of nuclear

thus nuclear weapons forever. The nature

difficult to achieve.

weapons as the highest-order expression

of these weapons also necessitates arms

of national security, nuclear weapon states

races/competition between states.

entrench the nuclear system and ensure its continuity.

LACKING INCENTIVES

RISK REDUCTION ITSELF

Under nuclear deterrence, a state’s incentives to “give up” weapons are extremely

Risk reduction efforts, rather than disrupt

weak, while the disincentives remain

the system, largely reinforce the status

extremely strong, further perpetuating the

quo. The system only allows risk reduction

system’s inherent inertia.

measures that de-risk the existing system, versus those that aim to disrupt or transform it.

HORIZON 1

RISK REDUCTION AND DISARMAMENT

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CALLOUT

Steps that reduce the risk of nuclear weapons use have become a neutral ground in the system; because risk reduction is critical to making the system safer and to making progress toward disarmament it has widespread support. But risk reduction not tied to the goal of disarmament often just serves to make the system safer to itself, which can inhibit progress toward disarmament. This “dual use” of the term risk reduction creates problems of language and understanding, and its overuse prevents all who aim for disarmament from getting behind one bold goal. Risk reduction is a necessary but insufficient mechanism toward disarmament, but disarmament must be the goal.

HORIZON 1

FORTRESS DETERRENCE

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POPUP

“Think of the system as a fortress manned by a small but powerful and well-armed cadre of international monks.”

Read a story told by Joan Rohlfing, president and COO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and chair of Horizon 2045’s advisory board, about the insularity of the nuclear system and those who hold decision rights within it. The story helps to make clear not just the siloed nature of the system and those who perpetually protect it, but also the enormous scale of the impact that the system and its decision-makers have on the rest of the world.

Scan the QR code to read the full text of fortress deterrence.

HORIZON 1

WHAT’S WORTH PRESERVING

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CALLOUT

While we focus here on the characteristics and dynamics

provide information about other seismic and acoustic

of the nuclear system that are inhibiting progress, there

events that could help us better understand oceans,

are bright spots within the current system — positive dyna-

volcanoes, the impacts of climate change, and even the

mics and behaviors that, if amplified, could help shift the

movement of whales. The CTBT and its monitoring tools,

system so that catastrophic risk no longer sits at its core.

knowledge, and networks will be critical to retain and build upon for the future.

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is one of several examples of strong cooperative arrange-

While still a limited feature of the nuclear system, transpa-

ments that could form the foundation for new governance

rency practices — including the provision and exchange

structures in the future. The CTBT verifiably bans nuclear

of information about nuclear weapon stockpiles, policies,

explosions by all state signatories, establishing a norm

doctrines, forces, and activities, as well as information

against nuclear testing and making it very difficult for

about fissile materials — have been an important part

countries to test without detection. The CTBT is almost

of the nuclear system for decades. Transparency is an

universal but can only enter into force after specific coun-

essential ingredient for accountability, building trust

tries with nuclear technology have ratified it. Its Interna-

among parties and demonstrating where progress on

tional Monitoring System, comprising 337 facilities using

disarmament has, and has not, been made. There are

advanced technologies to conduct seismic, hydroacous-

many examples of agreements that have been essential

tic, infrasound, and radionuclide monitoring, is already

to promoting transparency, even between competitor

operational. These facilities are collecting huge amounts

nations (e.g., arms control agreements such as the intru-

of data that ensure detection of nuclear testing and also

sive inspection procedures allowed by both the US and

HORIZON 1

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WHAT’S WORTH PRESERVING

CALLOUT

Russia under the New START Treaty). The US has over

making them a more prominent feature of the nuclear

the years provided the most information about its nuclear

story. For example, the end of the Cold War shifted the

weapons and fissile material stockpiles. For example, in

fear of nuclear war to the fear that Russia and the former

2021 the US government released its aggregate number

Soviet states would lose control of their huge nucle-

of active and inactive nuclear warheads (no other nucle-

ar assets — tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, an

ar state produces a public unclassified accounting of

estimated 600 tons of weapons-grade nuclear material,

their nuclear stockpile) and in 2006 released a report on

hundreds of thousands of nuclear workers, and a huge

historical highly enriched uranium production and dispo-

nuclear complex. This quickly led to a mutual understand-

sition. The UK has also released information on its fissile

ing between Russia and the US of the benefits of collab-

material production. If we are going to succeed in disman-

oration between their scientific communities, paving the

tling global nuclear stockpiles, and do that with confi-

way for the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program

dence, all nuclear possessing states will have to disclose

to help safeguard and reduce these weapons and materi-

the number of weapons and fissile material stocks, both

als, as well as US/Russian scientific “lab-to-lab” exchang-

civilian and military, they possess by making an initial

es. For the next two decades scientists and engineers at

baseline declaration that can then be verified.

US Department of Energy laboratories and the Russian nuclear weapon institutes joined forces to address nucle-

While collaboration and trust can seem difficult to estab-

ar dangers. These kinds of deep collaborations can (and

lish, we have demonstrated a capacity for both — as well

must) happen again.

as for cooperative agreements based on verification — in the past and must build on these precedents in the future,

HORIZON 1

Horizon 2045 is doing research to advance global understanding of the full effects of nuclear weapons. Shockingly, research on the broad and cascading societal, economic, and environmental consequences of nuclear weapons use is thin to nonexistent; there has been very little study of the immediate, medium, and long-term effects of nuclear use beyond the prompt, short-range physical effects. As a result, government decision-makers are not fully aware of the global-scale implications of their nuclear policies and any potential decision to use nuclear weapons, and global publics do not know the full range of harms that these weapons pose to our societies, our environments, and our CHAPTER

future.

Our research into the full effects of nuclear use will more fully reveal the risks at the core

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of the current nuclear system and could help drive demand for a less risky system. We aim to address serious gaps in global knowledge about the dynamic long-term impacts that nuclear explosions could cause — including environmental, legal, economic, industrial, agricultural, societal, and public health harms — and produce documents and findings that make the problem of nuclear weapon detonations proximate and newly vivid.

NUCLEAR EFFECTS AT SCALE

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38 CHAPTER

Articulating the vulnerabilities and leverage points of the present system (Horizon 1), defining and detailing the components of a prohibition future (Horizon 3), and rigorously studying the contextual forces influencing both (horizon scanning) will reveal numerous opportunities to influence, alter, and wholly rethink the present-day nuclear system in service of moving the world toward a more cooperative future free from the threat of nuclear weapons. If Horizon 1 is the present and Horizon 3 is the future, then Horizon 2 is the bridge — a set of actions, investments, and explorations capable of sparking significant change, opening new pathways, and creating still more opportunities yet to be imagined.

HORIZON 2

Horizon 2 is a real-world experimentation space where we aim to make carefully calculated interventions and investments that have lasting systemic effects. We will launch and support test projects, facilitate collaborative innovation, and accelerate the adoption of new approaches. We will engage in “progressive approximation,” getting closer and closer to the third horizon through disciplined trial and error and dedicated observation and learning. build partnerships across threat spaces in an effort to create broader infrastructure for a more secure planet.

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This will be a prolonged period of action, during which we lead projects, support aligned projects led by others, and

HORIZON 2 How will we drive change forward?

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PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

While the projects we pursue or support will vary widely, common to all will be the kinds of systems change they are designed to provoke. Systems thinking suggests that, in order to

MENTAL MODELS

GOALS

The paradigms, deeply held mindsets, and value

The superordinate goal of the system and/or

structures out of which the system’s culture, goals,

subordinate objectives of various actors in different

behaviors, and priorities arise; arguably the high-

parts of the system

est leverage place to intervene in a system

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41

PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

disrupt a system’s visible dynamics, it is valuable to craft interventions that change a system’s:

RULES & NORMS

INFORMATION FLOW

Laws, regulations, standards, and tacit and

How, why, from whom, and to whom information travels

explicit expectations

HORIZON 2

INTER DEPENDENCIES Ways that different actors, different structures, and different

Which actors hold formal and/or informal power

behaviors consistently influence one another in the system

over critical decisions

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PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

POWER & DECISION-MAKING

Horizon 2045 as a whole is an intervention aimed at reevaluating the mental

DRIVING BELIEFS

models and goals of the nuclear system and their fit in the complex security

Widely accepted core beliefs and/or contradictory

all these levers for change, we are beginning with interventions that target the

or competing beliefs

environment of the future. While our Horizon 2 work will ultimately attend to system’s rules and norms, information flow, and driving beliefs as described in the Horizon 2045 systems map.

HORIZON 2

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PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

RULES & NORMS Laws, regulations, and standards While there has been progress on nuclear issues in

Intended outcomes of this work include the development

some aspects of international law, there remain few legal

of a broader understanding of the international legal

“bright lines” making the manufacture, possession, or

landscape (the extent to which legal standing has been/

use of nuclear weapons illegal. This intervention will

may be established for both sentient and non-sentient

explore novel approaches to reshaping international law

beings, not only today but in the future) that extends

and norms as a precursor to nuclear weapons prohibi-

beyond conventional thinking about legal remedies for

tion, examining recent legal precedents in international

nuclear harms; clear understanding of the feasibility

humanitarian and environmental law as well as emergent

(including both challenges to and enablers of success)

legislation regarding protections for future genera-

of further intervention in this area; a plan of action based

tions of humans and for other beings both sentient and

on the feasibility study; and a model legal framework

non-sentient. This research will inform a feasibility study

that supports a new conception of human and planetary

to determine whether, how, and with whom Horizon 2045

security, along with model legislation (that can be propa-

might develop testable approaches to alter the views of

gated globally) that borrows precedent from other issue

international courts on the legality of nuclear weapons.

areas to demonstrate the connectedness of nuclear weapons to other threats.

HORIZON 2

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PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

RULES & NORMS Decentralized governance, new methods for creating and exchanging value, and shifting incentives Web3 is the next generation of the internet, characterized

inclusive, post-nuclear weapons future. This might include

by data and value exchanges that are more decentralized

dynamics such as exploring the potential for global

than Web2 platforms like Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, or

crowdsourcing and crowd management of finances for

Google. Examples of Web3 technologies include crypto-

research, advocacy, and action on humanitarian disar-

currencies; non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which are unique

mament; using digital art (in the form of NFTs) to enable

digital assets; and decentralized autonomous organi-

communities impacted by nuclear harms to tell their

zations (DAOs), in which members collectively set the

stories in their own ways, retaining the related IP while

rules and make decisions, using automated algorithms

creating new revenue streams; and, in the longer term,

to reduce the need for traditional governance structures.

helping to finance and facilitate the promise of “societal

Blockchain software is the underlying technology that

verification” — that is, citizens helping to monitor and verify

makes these innovations possible, enabling greater

their governments’ compliance with disarmament agree-

transparency and accountability than Web2 platforms.

ments — thus offering citizens a sense of agency in helping

In principle, Web3 makes it possible to design systems

provide for their own security and that of the planet.

that could radically disrupt existing social, political, and economic hierarchies, up to and including our understand-

At the same time, we will look at ways to use and amplify

ing of sovereignty.

economic incentives for change, drawing on methods used to drive sustainable investment in and incentivize

Horizon 2045 is exploring trends in Web3 so that we

a new paradigm of global security and risk management

can consider how they might empower us to create an

that accounts for nuclear weapons threats.

HORIZON 2

PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

INFORMATION FLOW Information flow helps define the feedback loops in any system; what information moves through the system, who receives it, and who is empowered to act on it can influence other system behaviors. Interventions that change the who, what, where, how, when, and why of information flow can make visible how the system is operating (including when it is in conflict with stated goals or values) and even shift power dynamics.

Information flow includes the structures by which information flows and to whom, what types of information are flowing, and how

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45

quickly it flows. Equally important is where information does not flow. In our information flow interventions, Horizon 2045 is learning what happens to the system when we:

Build support among a broad range

Create better ways to communicate

Raise awareness and repair the harm

of stakeholders for compelling new

the consequences of nuclear use

done by the nuclear weapons system,

narratives about a far brighter future

or nuclear accident — and strategies

particularly to marginalized commu-

(Horizon 3) and for a replacement

for preventing them — on the road to

nities, and ensure that further harm

strategy for managing the nuclear threat

building an architecture that replaces

cannot be perpetrated going forward

the current system

Boost understanding of the stories that

Identify where/how to rewire beha-

Build support among a broad range

non-military exceptionalism countries

vioral and feedback loops so that

of stakeholders for compelling new

tell themselves that contribute positively

actions can create significant disrup-

narratives about a far brighter future

to the global condition

tions to the system rather than marginal

(Horizon 3) and for a replacement strat-

improvements

egy for managing the nuclear threat

HORIZON 2

The deeply entrenched beliefs undergirding the nuclear system, including the nuclear deterrence myth, limit the possibilities for change. Exposing these beliefs and their attendant frailties — and replacing them with something far better — will open new opportunities and momentum for change. Horizon 2045 seeks to:

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PLACES TO INTERVENE IN A SYSTEM

DRIVING BELIEFS

Expose the ways in which many of

Reveal the ways in which human

Research emerging concepts

the assumptions fundamental to the

decision-making and behaviors have

or myths from other cultures and

nuclear system are fragile, flawed, or

protected us in some high-risk nuclear

fields that lend themselves to the

simply wrong, and create deeper

situations by overriding the deter-

change we seek here (e.g., “manag-

knowledge of the underlying myths

rence system, and how human or

ing the commons” in a time when

feeding these assumptions and how

machine errors have increased risks of

we are painfully aware of planetary

to influence their reexamination and

accidental or unintentional use

constraints)

re-creation

HORIZON 2

OUR PROTOTYPING PROCESS

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CHAPTER

CALLOUT

Like most existential threats, nuclear weapons are a

Well-defined problems (e.g., detailing the require-

wicked problem, presenting problems and subprob-

ments of a future nuclear weapons prohibition

lems of various kinds that fall into two broad catego-

regime) submit to systematic, specification-driven

ries: well-defined (with relatively clear boundaries

approaches. Ill-defined problems (e.g., developing

and predictable outcomes) and ill-defined (the

future legal frameworks) rely on the more inductive

parameters of the problem itself can only be discov-

“What if?” reasoning associated with the prototyping

ered through an unpredictable, emergent process).

process. This process is an exercise of discovery

In Horizon 2 we are learning our way forward by

that begins with low-fidelity, exploratory, even naive

engaging with both types of problems in a rigorous,

sketches of an emerging concept. Over time, proto-

evidence-based process that involves disciplined

types gain detail and sophistication through a series

experimentation, data gathering, and evaluation.

of tests, failures, and improvements.

HORIZON 2

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CHAPTER

OUR PROTOTYPING PROCESS

CALLOUT

Horizon 2045 has adopted a three-stage prototyp-

This approach is rooted in the “Rule of Tens,” an

ing model in which Horizon 2 systems interventions

engineering and product development concept that

move from proof of concept to “alpha” and “beta”

asserts that with each successive stage of develop-

stages only if they meet certain criteria for ongoing

ment a new product, program, or service becomes

investment. While the criteria vary depending on

an order of magnitude more costly — in terms of

the intervention, they generally include viability (Can

time, financial investment, brand equity, and/or team

we show evidence that the concept has the poten-

morale. By this reasoning, it is imperative to “fail”

tial to produce the outcomes we desire?), scalabil-

as often and as early as possible in the process to

ity (What does our data tell us about the potential

ensure that we learn and improve as much as we

for this concept to achieve greater impacts over

can when it is relatively inexpensive to do so. Using

time?), feasibility (Do we have the human, financial,

this approach, some Horizon 2 interventions will

and other resources required to do justice to this

make it all the way to the beta stage of development

concept?), and strategic value (Does this concept

and beyond. Others will be abandoned if/when we

accelerate or advance the Horizon 2045 mission?).

lack evidence to support continued investment.

HORIZON 2

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BUILDING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE

Our work is already attracting diverse leaders and organizations who see value in being part of a bold network of systems thinkers who are exploring, inventing, and informing pathways toward a more secure future. We are designing joint projects with world-class futurists who work in multiple issue spaces, giving them insight and topsight into intersecvericks and iconoclasts, philanthropists and funders who value making bold investments in the future and see particular value in the kinds of convergences that an intersectional community of practice can both reveal and create. We are forging partnerships with academics and researchers, and gamemakers and change experts, who are eager to apply their expertise to existential challenges. Two foundational Horizon 2045 commitments are driving these efforts:

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50

BUILDING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE

tional challenges and the opportunities embedded within them. We are engaging governments and organizations, ma-

HORIZON 2

BUILDING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE

51

Engaging diverse and necessary voices in this work The best and freshest ideas for achieving a future where states no longer depend on nuclear weapons will come from a wide range of voices and backgrounds from around the globe, drawn together into a far more diverse community of practice. Horizon 2045 seeks to:

Make the nuclear issue accessible and

Engage, elevate, and empower leaders

inclusive to the global public

and populations of states without nuclear weapons that resist the belief that nuclear

FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

weapons provide security

Engage greater numbers of, and more

Apply proven strategies/methods for

diverse, problem-solvers and partners,

successfully reshaping social views and

including outsized policy influencers,

beliefs to this issue space

Gen Z leaders of the future, members of the communities most impacted by nuclear weapons, and experts in fields far outside the nuclear realm

HORIZON 2

Tying nuclear system questions to a broader field of questions related to security and the future will bring nuclear issues into more prominent light, revealing how nuclear weapons impede our collective ability to address other global challenges and how achieving a full nuclear weapons prohibition can help advance work on these other challenges. Horizon 2045 seeks to:

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BUILDING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE

Linking the nuclear issue to other challenges facing mankind

Connect/partner with issue spaces outside

Create increased global understanding of

the nuclear realm, including those centered

the gap between human and technological

on climate change, biological risks, and social

evolution and the criticality of developing

justice, as well as the growing community

Assess what base-layer changes and

new ways of working together as a global

of people looking at all existential risks

disruptions these other issue spaces aim to

community to mitigate the existential risks

collectively

drive through their work, in order to surface

we have created for ourselves

linkages and synergies that are authentic, natural, and useful to all, and seek to apply theoretical and practical work from other global challenges that center cooperation over coercion

HORIZON 2

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HORIZON 3

53 CHAPTER

Most efforts to bring about nuclear prohibition focus on the push: standing firmly in the present, they seek to push the system, or actors within the system, to address the risks posed by nuclear weapons and take steps toward an eventual disarmament. While this is critical and necessary work, what’s notably absent from this issue space is a focus on the pull. We know what we’re trying to move our world away from, but what are we moving it toward? What does a nuclear weapons prohibition future look like? What systems and innovations will it require, and what other existential threats might those innovations also help to address?

We can learn a great deal about how to transform complex systems by situating ourselves in the future and back-

HORIZON 3

casting to identify the strategies and tactics needed to get us there. Understanding in detail the requirements of a nuclear weapons prohibition system while also exploring the many pathways we might take to get there broadens our view of what’s possible and lifts us out of the mental frame where incremental progress and perpetual risk management are the main focus. Put bluntly: We can’t just say we don’t want nuclear weapons — we have to enviwe want and untangling the unknowns and the complexities about how to achieve it, in order to create a blueprint for a transformed system — and a transformed world.

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54

sion and define what we want instead, in practical terms. Our Horizon 3 work is about rigorously defining the future

HORIZON 3 What are we aiming to create?

Ending the nuclear weapons century will require novel approaches that enable the application of equitable and effective long-term thinking to this problem space. Through Horizon 2045 we are developing and advancing foresight work that is cross-disciplinary, rigorous, and bold. This core competency helps us engage with the complex forces of change shaping the nuclear system and its

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adjacent issue spaces.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT

Developing a deep understanding of our evolving future context is a critical first step in envisioning a new security paradigm for the Anthropocene, allowing us to explore opportunities for large-scale sustainable transformation. Taking into account the intertwined nature of existential threats, our foresight work seeks to challenge the assumptions that sustain the status quo and to facilitate new discussion, new partnerships, and new action informed by a shared

In imagining and building this audacious vision of the future, we are taking great care to ensure that our foresight efforts do not perpetuate the inequities embedded within the current system. With each foresight project, we aim to move beyond conventional foresight methodology by designing processes that are culturally informed, innovative, and participatory.

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STRATEGIC FORESIGHT

vision of a desirable future that is currently deemed impossible.

HORIZON 3

Like all complex systems, the nuclear system does not operate in a vacuum. Some of the highest-value levers for change stand outside the system, tied into larger global currents of change building up all around it. These contextual factors present both opportunities for and obstacles to change; regardless, they alter the fundamental conditions in which the nuclear system operates and threaten the endurance of the underlying mental models that support it.

Together, they influence and shape the possibilities of the present and future and our options for moving from one to the other. Surfacing and studying contextual forces of change — political, social, technological, environmental, and economic drivers that will shape the future — lets us look at nuclear weapons challenges in relationship with other elements of a dynamic

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and changing world.

FORCES OF CHANGE

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All of Horizon 2045’s work is grounded in the dynamic forces shaping our world.

For instance: How will our notions of security (and insecurity) evolve over the next decade as we emerge from a pandemic, confront a rise in authoritarianism, or endure climate-induced weather catastrophes? How might the role of nation states evolve? How will emerging technologies empower new forms of public engagement? And how might all of that change the way we deal with nuclear challenges? Breaking the frame in this way is what distinguishes Horizon 2045 from other approaches, where the tendency is to center nuclear weapons at all stages of analysis. We are intent on reversing a tendency to wonder why the rest of the world is not paying more attention to nuclear threats by focusing our curiosity outward: How will changes in the world around us inhibit or accelerate achievement of our nuclear disarmament goals?

HORIZON 3

A SAMPLING OF CONTEXTUAL FORCES THAT COULD INFLUENCE, INHIBIT, OR ACCELERATE CHANGES TO THE NUCLEAR SYSTEM

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CHAPTER

CALLOUT

Fluctuating but ever-present

Accelerating climate change

geopolitical tensions

Changing awareness of high-conse-

Continued habitat destruction

quence/ low-probability incidents like

driven by development

COVID-19 and future pandemics

Military innovation growing faster

Rising authoritarianism and

and more consequential

waning faith in state authority

Circular economies and alternatives

Infrastructure failing physically

to prescribed economic value

and/or being vulnerable to hacking

The changing mechanics for

decision-making and democratic engagement

HORIZON 3

COULD INFLUENCE, INHIBIT, OR ACCELERATE CHANGES TO THE NUCLEAR SYSTEM

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CHAPTER

60 A SAMPLING OF CONTEXTUAL FORCES THAT

CALLOUT

Rising acknowledgment that we’ve

State borders/boundaries under the

Augmented intelligence

entered the Anthropocene

stress of increasing migration

and memory

Major demographic shifts

People/companies creating their

Deepening divide between those who

Growing sophistication of

are secure and those who are insecure

blockchain technology

Democratization of information

The speed and scale of

dis/misinformation

own forms of security

Corporations driving solutions

Rising social movements

Rise of cryptocurrency

to large-scale problems

Expanded use and occupation of

Rapidly emerging new technologies

“outer” space

outpacing human comprehension, like data analytics and AI

HORIZON 3

Horizon scanning is a systematic tool for identifying and exploring the contextual factors that are influencing the present and will influence the future. The process of horizon scanning differentiates between developments that are “predetermined” (the evolution of artificial intelligence, for instance) and those that are uncertain but highly relevant to the issue or question at hand (the specific ways in which artificial intelligence will affect the threat landscape).

Horizon scanning picks up novel and unexpected signals from both mainstream and unconventional sources. A comprehensive scanning proposes that certain shifts be monitored closely over time because they have the power either to facilitate or to disrupt achievement of particular outcomes. In all cases, horizon scanning provides an evidence base from which to challenge

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assumptions and formulate effective strategy.

HORIZON SCANNING

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Horizon scanning is a way of looking for evidence of the future that’s coming and in some cases is already here.

Horizon 2045 has developed a global horizon scanning process designed to draw and synthesize insights from a wide range of sources. We have also built an international horizon scanning network that features at least two scanners from each continent. Working individually and collectively, network members identify contextual forces that are already shaping the future, so that we can better understand how they interact with the nuclear system — as well as other systems — and be prepared to leverage those changes in ways that serve our Horizon 2045 goals. Insights from this process serve to deepen our awareness of the contextual forces and dynamics changing the landscape in and around the nuclear system and other existential threats, feed our futures/strategic foresight work, and inform our prioritization of experiments and investments.

HORIZON 3

CALLOUT

Our early horizon scanning work and analysis inspired us to more deeply contemplate the nature of change over the next several decades — the ways in which our mental models may be shaped or reshaped by our coming up against planetary boundaries and the intertwining of global concerns. The result was the “seven shifts,” a narrative exploration of the kinds of upending and rebuilding of mental models that humanity might need to pass through to get

THE SEVEN SHIFTS

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CHAPTER

to a better future. One key provocation offered by each shift is shared below. In the world of 2045 and beyond:

What kinds of practices, conventions, norms, beliefs, policies, institutions,

What are we doing differently, and inten-

or default patterns have we let go of, and

tionally, to safeguard future generations

what others have we embraced, in order to

and begin operating with humanity’s long-

ensure planetary and humanity’s future?

term future in mind?

Have we come to see and respect the necessity of applying diverse forms of knowledge to questions about our world and our efforts to solve pressing challenges?

HORIZON 3

THE SEVEN SHIFTS

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CHAPTER

CALLOUT

Have we broken the longstanding hu-

Has managing the commons become

bris that humans have dominion over all

“common sense”—and perhaps even a

things, perhaps offering legal protec-

new organizing principle running through

tions to animals and the planet’s habitats

our systems and behaviors?

and ecosystems?

Has governance become more dynamic and participatory, and if so what does that look like? Have enabling technologies spurred a rise in political will and created new mechanisms and pathways for inclusive governance?

Have advanced transparency technologies, like hyperspectral imaging and blockchain, moved us into a different kind

Scan the QR code to read the full text of the seven shifts.

of information environment?

HORIZON 3

CALLOUT

Speculative artifacts are well-designed objects that do not exist in the present but could in the future, giving shape and weight to a possible future we want to explore. Speculative artifacts give alternate possibilities a sense of reality that helps bring them to ground because they show (not just tell) what the future could look like. Just as many of the objects and the devices

SPECULATIVE ARTIFACTS

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we encounter have histories and meanings that are only hinted at in their physical manifestation, a speculative artifact can hint at a different world without becoming too polemic. Great props bring a particular movie world to life; similarly, speculative artifacts invite us to consider many possible futures and act as a focus for conversation and debate about the kind of future we want to inhabit.

HORIZON 3

CALLOUT

Systems designer Irina Wang created a series of speculative artifacts for Horizon 2045 based on the seven shifts described above, translating insights contained within the shifts into instru-

SPECULATIVE ARTIFACTS

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ments that resonate. These objects do what speculative artifacts do best: evoke a possible future that has yet to arrive. Seeing tangible objects from the future and their uses can compel us to “see” our current mental models, the future, and pathways to the future differently.

Scan the QR code to learn more about the speculative artifacts.

HORIZON 3

At the heart of Horizon 2045’s futures work are four complementary and foundational efforts. Each aims to illuminate a particular piece of the larger picture of how we might achieve, sustain, and benefit from a full nuclear weapons prohibition, and how the innovations, processes, systems, and agreements we

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create as part of that effort will enable progress on other existential threats.

DEFINING THE FUTURE

next several decades) and critical uncertainties (In what ways, how quickly, and in what societies will authoritarianism express itself? How will global politics shake out in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis?) to derive those pathways.

For each scenario we will ask such questions as: What

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DEFINING THE FUTURE

innovations in governance, technology, culture, diplomacy, education, etc., will make this future possible? In what sequence might those innovations need to take place?

What resources will they require? What are the most powerful first steps we can take, or the most useful experiments The sentiment that nuclear weapons effectively serve as

we can conduct? Are there changes or innovations that

a tool for global governance in lieu of other mechanisms

make sense in only one future, and if so how will we know

has shaped world affairs since the inception of the bomb.

that future is coming into play so we can activate strategies

By using the tools of strategic foresight to consider how a

that will be most effective? What leading indicators must we

durable, verifiable nuclear weapons prohibition might be

pay attention to? Conversely, are there changes or inno-

achieved by 2045, we are essentially asking: Absent nucle-

vations that make sense in several or all of the scenarios,

ar weapons, through what mechanisms, institutions, or

and should we then prioritize initiatives that lead to those

apparatus might we establish and maintain global security

innovations?

and stability within this timeframe?

In collaboration with the School of International Futures, we are building a set of scenarios that illuminate alternative pathways to achieving a global nuclear weapons prohibition, examining both predetermined elements (the social, technological, environmental, economic, and political shifts we are relatively confident will take place over the

HORIZON 3

DEFINING THE FUTURE

69 FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

The lack of a tangible model and concrete requirements for a

A primary goal of this project is to elaborate a credible, detailed

durable nuclear weapons prohibition — a blueprint for a prohibi-

description of the characteristics, institutions, and capabilities

tion future — makes it hard to rally support and easy for policy-

needed for a future in which nuclear weapons are prohibited,

makers to dismiss prohibition as “unrealistic” or “unattainable.”

peaceful nuclear uses are permitted, and the threat of breakout is

While there has been some scholarship around various aspects

mitigated. To close gaps in the ability to imagine and work toward

of the steps needed to achieve a world without nuclear weapons,

this future, we must articulate the technical and policy require-

there is no comprehensive, detailed, practical elaboration of the

ments for this new system. Through a comprehensive analysis of

requirements and elements that would allow for such a world. For

the building blocks for a disarmed world in 2045, we aim to open

example, scholars have acknowledged that the “end state” will

up new discussions, explorations, and partnerships that catalyze

require more intrusive monitoring and verification and/or more

innovation in technology, governance, and international law — all

rigorous safeguards around management of fissile materials. But

key components in a sustainable future nuclear weapons prohibi-

more work is needed to elaborate what these procedures and

tion system.

capabilities would entail and how they would fit into a broader framework of legal and institutional arrangements required to achieve and sustain a prohibition on nuclear weapons.

HORIZON 3

WHAT NUCLEAR FUTURE ARE WE BUILDING?

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CALLOUT

In a world where we continue to accept the risk of a nuclear system that operates on the basis of threatening mass annihilation to prevent nuclear use, we will always be living with unacceptable existential risk. We believe it is both possible and necessary to design a new nuclear security paradigm that prevents the use of nuclear weapons through the implementation of effective, universal controls around nuclear technologies — without the accompanying risk of civilizational catastrophe. Unlike the world of 1945, when the initial operating model of the nuclear system began to take shape, the technological capabilities of today’s world provide a strong basis for a shift from a threat-based system to a control-based system.

A durable nuclear weapons prohibition is feasible if we have the controls necessary to ensure that nuclear technologies are never again used for anything but peaceful purposes (powering our communities, healing the sick, conducting research). Such a system will require...

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71

DEFINING THE FUTURE

New forms of legislation and regulation Nuclear weapons must be prohibited and their development, possession, and use made illegal under international law. Global publics, private-sector actors, and NGOs must be well equipped to monitor states’ adherence to the law.

Innovative technologies that shape new and more transparent protocols for detection, monitoring, and verification

Strong global mechanisms and institutions cooperating to maintain the prohibition and control system These institutions must continually evolve and adapt to

We must take advantage of evolving technical capacity to

changing power dynamics and circumstances to antici-

build and retain the systems we need to safely and secure-

pate and resolve potential clashes of interest. Operating at

ly manage the entire nuclear lifecycle, including to detect,

global and regional levels, including both private-sector and

monitor, and verify the use of nuclear technology, the dis-

governmental entities, and powered by the most advanced

mantlement of nuclear weapons, and the safe disposal of

forms of technology, a new breed of global mechanisms

spent fuel. These systems will help build confidence that

and institutions will assume responsibility for enforcement,

nuclear disarmament, once achieved, is universal, verifi-

verification, inspection, monitoring, and detection.

able, and irreversible. This includes robust and effective mechanisms for controlling prohibited and dual-use capa-

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bilities, facilities, materials, and activities in order to assure states and publics that cheating will be quickly detected and addressed.

While we already have much of the requisite technical capacity, the system will, perhaps most importantly, require that leaders and societies come to believe that the global risks and consequences of nuclear weapons — including to human health, economies, ecosystems, and future generations — outweigh any perceived security benefits. Active, diverse, and robust global networks — including engaged publics, private companies, and nongovernmental organizations — must directly promote and support the changes necessary for a sustainable nuclear weapons control system grounded in new conceptions of planetary security.

HORIZON 3

The era of relative abundance that we and others imagine hinges in great part on how we choose to manage the existential challenges before us, and whether and how we unleash new solutions that redefine the word “possible.” These solutions will both shape how we behave and present new ethical and decision-making provocations, as we develop new shared rules and constraints to govern how humanity deploys planet-changing technologies DEFINING THE FUTURE

and explore new methods of democratic engagement and new expressions of collective power and agency. To thrive in the Anthropocene, we need to develop the new norms, values, institutions, and behaviors necessary to manage global challenges and existential threats — nuclear weapons among them — and

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solve for how to cooperate at planet-scale.

2 Richard Heinberg, “The Anthropocene: It’s Not All About Us,” Earth Island Journal, 7 May 2014.

3 https:/is.theorizeit.org/wiki/Boundary_object_theory

In a 2014 article for the Earth Island Institute, Richard Hein-

Horizon 2045, in partnership with experts in the future of gover-

berg—senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute and a leading

nance and democratic practice, public intellectuals, environmen-

expert on energy and environmental issues — wrote, “We humans

talists, systems change experts, technologists, and designers,

have started the Anthropocene, and we’ve proudly named it for

is codifying new “rules of the road” for the Anthropocene. We are

ourselves, yet ironically we may not be around to enjoy much of

exploring the cultures, logics, operating systems, and political

it. The chain of impacts we have initiated could potentially last for

theories necessary to construct institutions commensurate to

millions of years, but it’s a toss-up whether there will be surviving

the challenges we face. A durable, verifiable nuclear weapons

human geologists to track and comment on it.”2 We would argue

prohibition provides a boundary object 3 for our multidisciplinary,

that if we play our cards right it is indeed possible for us not only

cross-issue community of practice: We are confident that what

to survive the Anthropocene but to transcend its challenges,

we learn about managing the nuclear challenge in the latter part

moving into a future in which we finally meet the basic needs

of the 21st century — and the norms, practices, and institutional

of billions of people — lessening poverty, reducing hunger, and

models we will prototype — will inform other existential challenges

unleashing new sources of energy.

and the reengineering of other systems as well.

HORIZON 3

DEFINING THE FUTURE

73 FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGE

While overwhelming majorities of the public desire a world

of what that world would look like so we can ask ourselves what

without nuclear weapons, most people don’t believe it is possi-

steps we must take to create it. How do we describe, and bring

ble. The key reason, research by the Nuclear Threat Initiative

alive, a future on the other side of nuclear weapons? And what

suggests, is the near complete absence of positive stories, in any

if that future only becomes possible because we developed a

medium, about a future that does not feature nuclear weapons.

vision of what it might look like — the big “so what” to all of our

In our efforts to compel a world that no longer relies on these

efforts?

weapons for global security, we have not yet collectively and fully imagined what that world might actually look like. By eradicating

Created in collaboration with Arizona State University’s Center for

the nuclear threat, what will we have unleashed and enabled?

Science and the Imagination, the Far Futures Lab invites science

What becomes possible when nuclear weapons have been

fiction authors, visual artists, musicians, and other creatives,

removed from the human story? In a world in which a durable

along with experts in nuclear weapons and other issue areas,

nuclear weapons prohibition has been achieved, what might be

to explore a future in which we successfully manage our way

different, and what are the dividends?

through a combination of preventable manmade threats — with a durable nuclear weapons prohibition as a cornerstone of that

We need a clearer depiction of how much brighter our future will

future. Through the Far Futures Lab, we are playing out the

be when nuclear weapons no longer hold the world hostage and

assumption that by ridding ourselves of existential threat, we will

global security has been deeply reimagined. We need a picture

have opened up new possibilities for a better future.

HORIZON 3

Ending the existential threat of nuclear weapons is a giant goal all by itself. But we believe that the success of that endeavor is bound up in something bigger that is just now coming into view. As we contemplate the myriad natural and anthropogenic risks clouding our view of the future, we are confronted with a choice: 1,000 years from today, 10,000 or 100,000 years from today, will the Anthropocene be notable for humanity’s failure to overcome challenges — many of which, like nuclear weapons, we created ourselves — or for being the beginning of a much healthier, safer, and more prosperous era for planet and people alike? What is possible on the other side

THE PROMISE OF A REIMAGINED GLOBAL SECURITY

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of the challenges we face today?

4

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THE PROMISE OF A REIMAGINED GLOBAL SECURITY

Tony Ord, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, illustrated ed. Hatchette Books, 2020.

Homo sapiens emerged about 200,000 years ago. As philosopher Toby Ord points out, humanity is still in its adolescence, “just coming into our power, just old enough to get ourselves in serious trouble.” 4 Yet even as we contemplate the dangers we have wrought, every day we make extraordinary advances in science, technology, and healthcare that improve the lives of billions. We make strides in artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and quantum science; we develop neural interfaces that help diagnose brain disorders; we eradicate more diseases and educate more children.

If humanity survives to “maturity” and all these advancements converge, what might we — the species distinguished by our capacity to cooperate — be capable of in the future? Might the story of the Anthropocene ultimately be one of problem-solving and regeneration, beginning with our decision to improve our odds of survival by ridding ourselves of nuclear weapons?

Like Toby Ord, we believe that “the future of a responsible humanity is extremely bright.” It is time to ignite the world’s most creative minds to solve our planet’s most vexing challenges —beginning with nuclear weapons.

Horizon 2045’s three founding partner organizations bring the creative process expertise of designers, innovators, and futurists together with the political, diplomatic, and subject matter knowledge of nuclear security professionals.

Launched in 2014 by five of the world’s

The Nuclear Threat Initiative is a nonprofit,

Center for Complexity at Rhode Island

largest peace and security funders,

nonpartisan global security organization

School of Design brings state-of-the-art

N Square is a path-breaking initiative intent

focused on reducing nuclear and biological

project design capabilities to the collabora-

on transforming the nuclear risk reduction

threats imperiling humanity, with a proven

tive, along with a history of applying the craft

field into one of the world’s brightest sources

track record of innovating and galvanizing

of design to complex human challenges.

of cross-sector creativity and innovation.

real-world, systemic solutions that create

CHAPTER

lasting change.

nti.org

complexity.risd.edu

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nsquare.org

ABOUT HORIZON 2045

10x100 Altimeter Design Group Arizona State University Center for Science and the Imagination

Center for Complexity & Rhode Island School of Design Dark Matter Lab MacArthur Foundation Metaculus N Square Nuclear Threat Initiative PATH Collective Policy Solve Politics for Tomorrow Pop Tech School of International Futures Skoll Foundation

OUR PARTNERS Worldview Studio

Are you doing work that aligns with the activities and goals of Horizon 2045? Interested in supporting or knowing more about this work?

There are many ways to join us.

To stay informed about Horizon 2045 and to get involved, visit www.horizon2045.org or contact us at

horizon2045.org

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hello@horizon2045.org.

GET INVOLVED

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