4: Outlook in terms of the NDP4 Intro
counting for 80% of GDP. Figure 6 shows the combination of manufacturing and services under the NDP3 (actual performance), the NDP4 (projected performance), and the possible trend up to the end of the NDP7. As can be seen, this target requires an upward trend over the periods illustrated, with manufacturing and services increasing by an annual average of 0.5% as a percentage of GDP. Background
Employment One of the key goals of Vision 2030 is to reduce the unemployment rate to 2.3%. While this has been a target for the country since Independence, the unemployment rate has actually increased to date, reaching 51.2% under the broad definition, according to the latest Labour Force Survey (2008).
NDP4 projection
Total number of persons employed
409,353
499,968
Total labour force
737,770
838,779
Total number of unemployed persons
328,417
338,831
44.5
40.4
The employment elasticities of GDP growth were taken into account in calculating the employment estimates. These elasticities estimate the change in employment when correlated with the corresponding changes in GDP by sector. However, due to wide fluctuations experienced in the sectoral elasticities, they have been adjusted, based mostly on the average for the 1994–2008 period.
Labour Force The total labour force includes all economically active persons who are employed as well as all unemployed persons of working age.
Execution, M & E
Unemployment rate (%, broad definition)
Table 14: Projected unemployment rate. <<
Economic Priorities
Indicator
NDP3 possible outcome
Basic Enablers
While the NDP3 targeted employment to grow at 2.6% per annum, it fell during 2004â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2008. Nonetheless, the rate of employment is expected to increase by the end of 2011/12, albeit at a slower pace of 2.3%, to reach a figure of 409,353 employed persons. This increase is partly due to a revised estimate that uses different figures for agriculture and fishing from those on which the 2008 Labour Force Survey is based. This level of employment translates into an overall rate of unemployment of 44.5% by the end of the NDP3 cycle. Table 14 shows a comparison between these figures and the projections for the NDP4 cycle.
Appendices
The employment elasticities used to project employment by industrial sector for the NDP4 cycle are shown in Table 15 (overleaf).
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