March 20, 2018
Volume 12, Issue 10
Foreign Policy and International Relations Club
Dış Politika ve Uluslarası İlişkiler Topluluğu
Russia expels 23 UK diplomats in retaliatory move in spy row Russia hits back with tit-for-tat expulsion after UK dismisses Russian diplomats over poisoning of Russian former spy.
A former double agent, Skripal betrayed dozens of Russian agents to British intelligence before his arrest in Moscow in 2004. He was later sent to the UK in exchange for captured Russian spies.
The UK's Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has said London would submit a sample of the Novichok nerve agent used in the former spy's poisoning to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), a UN body.
Russia will expel 23 British diplomats in retaliation against the UK's expulsion of The British diplomats must leave Mos23 Russian diplomats, Russia's foreign cow within a week, Russia's foreign mi- Speaking to the BBC news on Thursday, ministry said. Johnson said the rare Soviet-made chemical weapon used against Skripal and his The tit-for-tat expulsion follows after the daughter in the town of Salisbury was poisoning of a former Russian spy and specifically chosen to send a message to his daughter in London on March 4. political dissenters challenging Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Blaming Russia for the attack, the UK said it would dimiss 23 Russian envoys, "There is a reason for choosing Novicthe single biggest expulsion in more than hok. In its blatant Russian-ness, the nerve 30 years. agent sends a signal to all who may be thinking of dissent in the intensifying UK's Prime Minister Theresa May said repression of Putin's Russia," he said. on Saturday that Russia's dismissal of the British representatives "doesn't change "The message is clear: We will find you, the facts of the matter" of the poisoning. nistry said on Saturday, after a meeting we will catch you, we will kill you - and with Britain's ambassador to Russia, Lau- though we will deny it with lip-curling "Russia's response doesn't change the rie Bristow. scorn, the world will know beyond doubt facts of the matter - the attempted assassithat Russia did it." Al Jazeera / March nation of two people on British soil, for Moscow also decided to close the British 18, 2018 which there is no alternative conclusion Council in Russia and to withdraw perother than that the Russian State was cul- mission for Britain to open a general conpable," May told her Conservative Party's sulate in St Petersburg, the ministry said in a statement. spring forum.
THIS WEEK
EUROPE Page - 2
ASIA & PACIFIC Page - 3
OPINIONS Page 4-5
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Page - 6
AMERICAS Page - 7
TURKEY Page - 8
ECONOMY & BUSINESS Page - 9
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK Page - 10-11
EDITORIAL Page - 12
EUROPE Angela Merkel re-elected as German chancellor to fourth term Vote ends longest period Europe’s biggest economy has been without government in its post-war history. Angela Merkel has been re-elected by the German parliament to a fourth term as chancellor following months of political deadlock.Lawmakers voted by 364 to 315 in favour of re-electing the 63-year-old after Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) decided last month to enter another coalition with Ms Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The two are joined by the CDU’s Bavaria-only sister party the Christian Social Union in another “grand coalition” which has 399 seats. The same parties have governed for the past four years, but putting together the new coalition has been hard work. The Social Democrats initially planned to go into opposition. parliamentary vote comes 171 days after September’s election, in which all three parties lost significant ground.The vote puts an end to five months of political uncertainty in Europe’s largest economy – the longest the country has been without a government in its post-war history. Ms Merkel will head a muchchanged cabinet, with the governing parties – which are traditional rivals – keen to send signals of renewal. There are new faces in the most important posts: the finance, foreign, economy and interior ministries.Ms Merkel was able to take office only after two-thirds of the Social Democrats’ members, by ballot, approved the coalition deal clinched last month.At least 35 coalition politicians did not support Ms Merkel on Wednesday, though that was in line with results at the beginning of her two previous “grand coalitions” of Germany’s biggest parties.The Independent / March 13, 2018 Irish government approves wording for abortion referendumThe referendum will ask people to decide whether 'provision may be made by law for the regulation of termination of pregnancies.The Independent / March 12, 2018. Finland is the happiest country in the world, according to a United Nations (UN) report.The Nordic nation topped a list of 156 countries ranked in the World Happiness Report on factors such as life expectancy, social support and corruption. The Independent March 15, 2018. French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has proposed her National Front party be renamed the National Rally – le Rassemblement National – in a bid to try to improve its image and to help facilitate alliances with other parties. The Independent / March 11,2018.
EU proposes visa restrictions on countries refusing to take back illegal migrants Countries who refuse to take back migrants living illegally in the EU could face problems in the future when their citizens apply for visas. New rules proposed by the EC would set stricter conditions.The European Commission (EC) on Wednesday announced plans to penalize citizens from countries that refuse to take back illegal migrants by restricting visas.Under new rules proposed by the EC, countries that fail to cooperate on illegal migrant returns could face a restrictive visa policy. The restrictions may include longer visa processing times, higher costs, fewer exemptions given to visiting diplomats or greater restrictions on the length of time they can stay in the EU. DW / March 14, 2018.
Slovakia's PM Robert Fico offers to resign amid political crisis Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said he was ready to resign after a political crisis sparked by the murder of an investigative journalist in February. Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico has offered his resignation amid a political crisis sparked by the murder of a journalist in February. He has offered to step down if Slovakia's president agress his political party gets to choose who succeeds him. It comes after the murder in February of investigative reporter Jan Kuciak, who had been investigating alleged political corruption. His killing last week sparked the biggest protests in Slovakia since the fall of communism. No-one has been charged over the murder of Kuciak, who was found shot dead at his home with his girlfriend. The junior party in the ruling coalition said on Monday it would leave the government unless new elections were agreed. Parties had been in talks since Tuesday before coalition leaders agreed on Wednesday to revamp the government. "I visited the president today, together with the coalition partners, and I proposed that in order to solve the political crisis I am ready to resign as prime minister," Fico told a televised news conference, flanked by the other two coalition leaders. Euronews / March 14, 2018 2
ASIA & PACIFIC Presidential election 2018: preliminary results show Putin in lead with over 70% The Election Day is wrapping up in Russia, as the nation's polling stations close following a day of intense voting, marking the end of the landmark presidential race. Preliminary results published by the Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) confirm that incumbent President Vladimir Putin is winning the race, receiving over 70 percent of the processed votes. This reflects the current President's soaring popularity amongst the Russian voters, who showed up in significant numbers to cast their ballots. Although Putin's victory was highly likely, the battle for second place remained the subject of much speculation, with veteran politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky going neck and neck with Pavel Grudinin, a newcomer to the world of high politics, who was advanced by the Russian Communist Party (KPRF). It seems that the KPRF's decision to present a fresh face has paid off, as the exit polls compiled by the Public Opinion Foundation state that Grudinin is expected to secure about 12 percent, while Zhirinovsky would gain half that amount. In another surprising turn of events, another newcomer to presidential politics, former TV-personality Ksenia Sobchak is set to surpass all other minor opposition figures, receiving just under 2 percent. As a result, she has beaten long-term opposition politician Grigory Yavlinsky, who was only supported by 1 percent of Russian voters, according to the preliminary data. Sputnik / March 18, 2018
India and Pakistan have traded charges of harassment of their diplomatic staff in Delhi and Islamabad as ties between the nuclear-armed rivals hit a new low. The Strait Times / March 16, 2018 A decision of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to pull his country out of the International Criminal Court (ICC) will encourage other states to follow the suit, marking "the beginning of the end" for the ICC, the spokesman of Duterte, Harry Roque, said Thursday. Sputnik / March 15,2018 A cronyism scandal engulfing the Japanese government has taken a dark turn, with reports that a finance official left a note before his suicide saying that he was forced to rewrite crucial records. The finance ministry admitted this week that it had altered 14 documents surrounding the sale of public land at an 85% discount to a nationalistic school operator with links to prime minister Shinzo Abe’s wife Akie. The Guardian / March 16, 2018
Boris Johnson slams Moscow's response to expulsion of Russian diplomats from UK UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson believes that Russia's retaliatory measures taken after London's decision to expel 23 Russian diplomats in connection with the Salisbury incident will only harm Russians. Relations between Moscow and London deteriorated in early March after former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter were found unconscious in a shopping center in Salisbury. UK Prime Minister Theresa May said that it was "highly likely" that Russia was responsible for the incident, since the two were poisoned with a Novichok-class chemical agent that was developed in the Soviet Union Russia announced retaliatory measures against the United Kingdom, declaring 23 employees of the UK Embassy in Moscow persona non grata in response to London's move. Sputnik / March 18,2018
China reappoints Xi Jinping as president with no term limit China’s legislature has unanimously approved the reappointment of Xi Jinping as president with no limit on the number of terms he can serve. The National People’s Congress also appointed close Xi ally Wang Qishan to the formerly ceremonial post of vice-president. Xi’s reappointment was approved by all 2,970 members of the NPC in attendance, while there was only one vote against Wang’s appointment. Xi, who leads the ruling Communist party, was also reappointed as head of the government commission that commands the military. He is already head of an identical party body overseeing the armed forces. The 64-year-old is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Last weekend, Xi was given the right to continue in office indefinitely after the NPC scrapped term limits for the president and vice-president. Chinese officials defended the move, saying it would bring the presidency in line with Xi’s positions as head of the party and commander of the armed forces. But critics say it is likely to lead to increased political repression and possible infighting among party factions seeking to promote their own candidates within the closed system. The Guardian / March 17, 2018
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OPINIONS
Populism: Is that a loop for the politics? 2017 was the year of super elections throughout to world, especially was for Europe and it was the year of a sharp turn to the right. Starting with Trump’s victory, populism has started to raise its power and also Brexit election changed the political agenda for a long time period.Let me summarize the elections in Europe. In March The Netherlands, parliamentary elections held and from the far-right Party for Freedom(PVV) Geert Wilders was good in campaign but couldn’t gain enough support. Mark Rutte who has led the country since 2010 won the elections from the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). In May, Bulgaria the first in its history a populist party made it into government besides its post-communist history. After the step down of the Farage due to Brexit, the UKIP lost its seat in the House of Commons. France had two elections in April and Şevval Uslu May and Emmanuel Macron beat the Le Pen from the far right with 66.1 percentage. German Political Science and elections can be categorized as the most difficult and chaotic one as its internal crisis after the Public Administration election. After the long period of the coalition talks, in March a coalition between CDU and SD sustained so Angela Merkel is elected 4th time. Austria and the Chezch Republic are the countuslusevval96@gmail.com ries that populism emerged within the elections. From Austria, Sebastian Kurz won the elections from the far right party being world youngest leader. Andrej Babis won the elections held in the Chezch Republic from the ANO. The Italian elections there is no majority but is the clear winner: right wing and populism. Yes, it was the year of super elections for Europe as it can be understood from the abovementioned but what is their main concern in the campaign for the populist parties? Populism is set to gain strength in Europe. Between 39 European countries, there are 102 populist parties. Across the countries that emerged populism, there is one clear element is in common: a sharp distinction between friend and enemy. Emphasizing this distinction is achieved by defining the people and the others: elites, immigrants, and minority. Eastern Europe is more experienced than the other parts of Europe in terms of consolidation of populism: Bosnia, Bulgaria, the Chezch Republic, Hungary Serbia, Slovakia are the countries which populist parties are in the power. With the rise of populist movements, a social and economic policy has changed and brought about new tensions. These changes in terms of policies put pressure on democratic institutions such as free media and independent judiciary. Emergence and consolidation of populism are not only limited for Eastern Europe but also it is the case for the more developed countries in terms of social and economic aspects such as Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway: populism has represented the parliaments of the Scandinavia countries. World especially Europe has turned the more nationalistic and anti-European union directions for 5 years. There are lots of theories about the reasons for the populism but the frequently asked question is that is it really all about the immigration crisis after the Syrian Civil War? I think it is mostly about the immigration but also the problem of integration, Islam, the rise of terrorism across the world and economic situations of the countries are the other reasons for this changing. It has become the key factor of EU politics and without the doubt it will continue. But I cannot stop asking myself that is populism a loop for the politics or is there any way distance from it in politics-without it can politics sustained? The populism used by left and right wings are the same or does it have features like fascism in terms of evolving and changing aspects? And the most important question in my mind is that: Is that a sign for a coming European dark?
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OPINIONS
Inflationary Pressure on Turkish Economy For inflation, it is important to keep it low and stable which is the main duty of most of the central banks in the world and Central Bank of Turkey (CBT). Turkey has been dealing with high inflation problem for a long time. Consumer price index (CPI) sometimes even reached to 106%. However, after 2001 crisis, inflation in Turkish economy was relatively stable. The problematic years for inflation were 2008 and 2011. As I have indicated above, inflation rate should be low and stable at the same time. So, one of the two is not enough. Although Turkey had managed to decrease the inflation rate, it was not stable. Yearly inflation rate of 2017 for Turkey was 11.92% while it was 8.53% in 2016. This much increase is not acceptable for the economy. It affects the producers directly and decreases purchasing power of the households. As I have said, control of inflation is the main duty of the CBT. For control purposes, central banks change their monetary stance according to the changes in the economy. They can Mert Malkoรง either tighten or loosen the monetary policy. To lower the inflation, central banks reduce the Business Administration money in the economic system which makes the interest rate to rise. The exact opposite is done to increase the inflation (very low inflation discourages people from spending since there is no incentive to spend the money today rather than tomorrow). The main weapons for this malkoc.mert@metu.edu.tr duty are the interest rate, required reserves, repo rates etc. Interest rate is the cost of debt for the borrower and the rate of return for the lender. If a central bank decides to increase this rate, it means that the central bank wants to discourage the potential borrowers by increasing the cost of debt and the consumers by making deposits at banks more attractive. In Turkey's case the problem was the ongoing high inflation in 1980's and 90's. However, after 2001, it was at a moderate level. Fluctuations of the inflation is a known problem for economists but if it continues to increase as it did in 2017, Turkey will have both high and unstable inflation problem. Although I mentioned the problems about inflation, it is the result of a growing economy. Since there are limited sources to produce, the resulting increase in production causes prices of raw materials to rise which creates inflation. However, there should be a balance. If inflation increases too much, then producing would be too costly and it would harm the producers. If it decreases too much, then the incentive to spend would disappear since prices would not be changing in the following year. There are various reasons for inflation to rise. I will mention them for Turkey's case. Firstly, the degree of pass-through is too high. Pass-through is the effect of the exchange rates on inflation. Since Turkey is a dependant country mainly on energy, if a fluctuation happens in the exchange rate, it affects the inflation too much. Another problem is that there is too much pressure on the raw materials. As Kredi Garanti Fonu (KGF) founded and the incentives on the real sector increased recently, it created a pressure on the sources. The main reason behind the huge increase in growth rate is this. Before KGF small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) were afraid of taking credit, since their risks were high. However, with the support of Kredi Garanti Fonu, they can take credit now as some of the risk is carried by this institution. As more of the money lent is guaranteed, banks are more willing to give credit to the enterprises. After these changes, there is a considerable inflation problem for Turkey. Central Bank of Turkey needs to increase the interest rates to lower the inflation. Most likely they are under pressure of the government, which worsens the case. Sustaining the growth is a motive for this pressure but if inflation gets out of control, it would harm the reputation and credibility of the CBT. The act needs to be done immediately since the effect would be lower if the act is delayed further. This delay would affect other parts of the economy. Credit note of the country can be decreased further, which is done recently by Moody's, currency can devaluate further etc. In an economy, growth is important, but it should be a healthy one. To conclude, one of the Central Bank of Turkey's main missions is to support the growth; however, it is the primary duty of the institution to keep inflation low and stable. If this phenomenon continues, it will harm the economy more than it is expected. Also, the necessary act needs to be done immediately before it is too late to affect the market.
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MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Turkish forces and Free Syrian Army capture Afrin city President Erdogan announces that Turkish flag hoisted in the centre of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian city of Afrin. Turkish forces and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels captured the centre of Afrin in northwest Syria after Kurdish fighters who were in control evacuated the city in order to fight another day. Turkey's military said in a tweet on Sunday that troops were searching for landmines and other explosive devices in the area. "Many of the terrorists had turned tail and run away already," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech in western Turkey. He announced that Turkey-backed forces took complete control of the city centre at 8:30am local time (05:00 GMT). He said 3,603 "terrorists had been neutralised" in Afrin since the launch of the cross-border operation on January 20. Erdogan said the Turkish flag and the flag of the Syrian opposition fighters were raised in the city, previously controlled by the Kurdish militia known as the People's Protection Units, or YPG. Later on Sunday, limited fighting was reported in some pockets in Afrin. "Our special forces and members of the Free Syrian Army are cleaning the remains and the traps they left behind," Erdogan said. "In the centre of Afrin, symbols of trust and stability are waving instead of rags of terrorists." Al Jazeera / March 18, 2018
Seven American military personnel have died in a helicopter crash in western Iraq, the US Defence Department says. BBC / March 16, 2018
A Palestinian man has driven his car into a group of Israeli troops in the north of the occupied West Bank, killing an officer and a soldier, the Israeli military says. BBC / March 16, 2018
US Defence Secretary James Mattis concluded a visit to Oman, where he had high-level talks with Omani officials on regional matters, including the war in Yemen and Iran’s alleged weapons smuggling to Houthi rebels. Middle East Online / March 18, 2018
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of trying to destabilise its security Accusations come as Ethiopia continues to be under a state of emergency since its former prime minister resigned. Ethiopia has accused neighbouring Eritrea of attempting to destabilise its security by supporting "destructive" groups while the country continues to be under a state of emergency. According to Ethiopian state television, the country's emergency council managed to capture weapons from "destructive" groups trying to smuggle the arms into the country from across the border. Asmara and Addis Ababa have had two bloody wars over border disputes in the past. This was the first accusation made at Eritrea since Ethiopia declared a state of emergency on February 18, following the resignation of its prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn. Al Jazeera / March 18, 2018
Air raids 'kill 30' in Eastern Ghouta as 'hundreds' more flee Fresh government air raids kill at least 30 in Damascus suburb, monitor says, an 'exodus' from enclave continues. At least 30 people have been killed in fresh government air attacks on the rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta, a war monitor reported. The Syrian government attacks on Saturday also injured dozens more, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said, as civilians attempted to flee the front lines in the besieged enclave. The attack comes as thousands of civilians over the past days fled Eastern Ghouta, which has been under a month-long bombardment campaign by the government. The UK-based SOHR said at least 10,000 people fled the Damascus suburb on Saturday, as deadly air raids continued. On Friday, 46 civilians, including six children, were killed in the district of Kafr Batna, according to the Observatory. Earlier on Friday, it was reported that between 12,000 and 13,000 people had fled the area east of Damascus. Abandoning their homes with whatever they could carry - some with their vehicles and others on foot - desperate civilians fled to areas under government control. Al Jazeera / March 18, 2018
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AMERICAS Donald Trump replaces US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with Mike Pompeo CIA Director Mike Pompeo will become the next US secretary of state, after President Donald Trump fired Rex Tillerson following a series of public policy rifts on North Korea, Russia and Iran. Outgoing US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Tuesday that Washington should do more to respond to Russia's "troubling behavior and actions." In farewell remarks at the State Department, Tillerson said the Russian government "must assess carefully as to how its actions are in the best interests of the Russian people and of the world more broadly. "Continuing on their current trajectory is likely to lead to greater isolation on their part, a situation which is not in anyone's interest," he said. Earlier Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that he would replace Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo. "Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State," Trump wrote in a tweet, adding: "Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service!" Tillerson gave a brief statement thanking State Department employees and US partners. In order for there to be a seamless transition, he said, he would delegate responsibilities to Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan until he officially steps down on March 31. "What is most important is to ensure an orderly and smooth transition during a time that the country continues to face significant policy and national security challenges," Tillerson said. Deutsche Welle / March 13, 2018
The US has imposed sanctions on 19 Russians, accusing them of interference in the 2016 US election and alleged cyber-attacks. BBC / March 15, 2018 Marielle Franco, a rising star of Brazilian politics, has been murdered in what appeared to be a political assassination. Franco had accused Rio's police of killing innocent people in their battle with drug gangs. Deutsche Welle / March 15, 2018 Homicide detectives opened an investigation on Friday into the collapse of a new footbridge that killed at least six people at Miami’s Florida Internatio nal University (FIU), as questions began to swirl about the companies behind the structure’s controversial design and construction. The Guardian / March 17, 2018
Peru President Pedro Kuczynski faces impeachment trial Peru's lawmakers have voted overwhelmingly to launch impeachment proceedings against President Pedro Kuczynski. The president is under fire for allegedly taking bribes from Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht. Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski once again faces being ousted from office, after lawmakers voted by a wide margin on Thursday to begin impeachment proceedings against him. Kuczynski is again under fire for his ties to Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht, the firm at the center of a corruption scandal that has engulfed Brazil's political elite. Congress is slated to debate and vote on Kuczynski's future next week. It is the second time Peru's president faces an impeachment motion in just four months. Deutsche Welle / March 15, 2018
Torture allegations dog Gina Haspel as she is poised to be first female CIA head Trump’s nominee to run the agency is accused of having run a black site and authorised destruction of videotapes of waterboarding. Gina Haspel is set to become the first female director in the 70-year history of the CIA. But smashing that glass ceiling will depend on offering the US Senate a convincing explanation about her dark past. More than a decade ago Haspel reportedly oversaw an infamous secret CIA prison in Thailand where a terrorism suspect, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, was waterboarded, a process that simulates drowning. She is also said to have drafted orders to destroy video evidence of such torture, which prompted a lengthy justice department investigation that ended without charges. Although Donald Trump has railed against former president George W Bush and his war on terror, his selection of Haspel has evoked the era that squandered America’s moral authority in many eyes. A handful of Democrats have already said they would oppose Haspel, while on Wednesday Senator Rand Paul became the first Republican to announce he would try to block her nomination. The Guardian / March 16, 2018 7
TURKEY Turkey denies bombing Afrin's hospital The Turkish military has released aerial footage that shows an undamaged Afrin hospital building, refuting claims of hospital damage as a smear campaign by YPG militia in Afrin. The YPG and Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor said a Turkish air raid hit Afrin town's main hospital on Friday night, killing 16 people. "Reports of a hospital bombing in Afrin by the Turkish Armed Forces are false," the military said in a statement posted on its Twitter account. "It is closely being monitored that vile propaganda against the Turkish Armed Forces is being spread, falsely claiming that buildings and vehicles were set ablaze by the Turkish military. In reality, it was being carried out by terrorists in Afrin city centre," the statement said. A spokeswoman for the UN human rights office said it had "deeply alarming reports" of civilians killed and wounded in Afrin, "due to air strikes and ground-based strikes." She also decried "reports that civilians are being prevented from leaving Afrin city by Kurdish forces ... [and] are being held to be used as human shields." Turkish-led forces launched an air and ground offensive on the Kurdish-majority region on January 20. According to the Turkish General Staff, the operation aims to establish security and stability along Turkey's borders and the region. The Turkish military maintains that "utmost care" is being taken to avoid harming civilians. Al Jazeera / March 17, 2018
The foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran signed an agreement on projects to create a transportation and transit corridor between the Indian Ocean and Europe in Baku on March 15. Hurriyet Daily News / March 15, 2018 A Greek court on Friday rejected a new request from Turkey for the extradition of eight Turkish servicemen who fled to Greece in July 2016 after a failed military coup. ABC News / March 16, 2018 A major law giving the green light to political parties to form preelection alliances and overhauling electoral regulations before the 2019 elections has been approved at parliament after a marathon nightlong session, which included a physical fight between ruling and opposition lawmakers. Hurriyet Daily News / March 13,2018
US-Turkey relations do not depend on individuals, Turkish PM says over Tillerson exit Relations between the United States and Turkey do not depend on individuals, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım said on March 14 after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was sacked by President Donald Trump. Speaking to journalists in Ankara before leaving for Azerbaijan, Yıldırım said: “Whoever comes in, Turkey’s stance is clear. It is not very important to us what the new secretary thinks about Turkey. ”Yıldırım said he hopes Tillerson’s departure from the state department will improve relations between the U.S. and Turkey. “I hope healthier relations [with the U.S.] could be developed after that,” said Yıldırım. Relations between the U.S. and Turkey do not depend on individuals, he stressed. Hurriyet Daily News / March 14, 2018
UK ends indefinite visa extensions for Turks Turkish businesspeople and their families in Britain under a popular visa program will no longer be eligible for a class of indefinite visa extensions but will still be able to apply for multi-year extensions, the U.K. government announced March 16. The U.K. will no longer accept applications for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) visas from Turkish citizens who are in the country on special ECAA business visas, Britain’s Home Office has said. The office said they will introduce into the immigration rules “a new ILR category for current Turkish ECAA business persons.” The latest update came after a U.K. tribunal ruling in a case related to an application from a Turkish national’s wife, Hacer Aydogdu, the Home Office said. “The Home Office will no longer accept applications for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) under the Turkish European Communities Association Agreement (ECAA) Business Persons category,” the Home Office said on its website. The tribunal’s previous decision said “the settlement of Turkish nationals and their dependents did not fall within the scope of a provision of the European Community Association Agreement with Turkey, called the ‘standstill clause.’” Hurriyet Daily News / March 16, 2018 8
ECONOMY & BUSINESS Farm Bank: Founder accused of defrauding gamers A popular mobile gaming app is making headlines in Turkey after its founder was accused by players of defrauding them of their investments. Turkish media claimed Mehmet Aydin, the 26-year-old founder of the Farm Bank game (Ciftlik Bank in Turkish), has fled the country, with tens of thousands of people who invested in the game out of pocket. He and his business partners came up with the game in 2016, inspired by popular social media game FarmVille. Users would buy virtual animals and farming equipment with real money. Mr Aydin promised users their money would be invested in real livestock in different farms across the country. Products were also put up sale in some stores and show-farms to woo investors. Users would be paid for time spent playing the game. The story has gripped the nation with more than 100,000 Twitter users discussing Mr Aydin and his scheme since Monday. Analysts estimated about 80,000 people have invested their money into the game. According to Ahval News, the project raised more than $120m (£85m) and paid out about $100m to 62,877 investors. According to Turkish media reports, the rest of the money was transferred to Mr Aydin and his wife's personal bank accounts. Mr Aydin sold his shares in the company in December 2017. Turkey's financial regulators filed a complaint at the end of 2017 after users complained about broken promises. The company said on 9 January that it had suspended accepting new users. On 16 January Mr Aydin said investors' money could not be paid back on time as the banks refused to work with his company after the complaints. "It looks like it [Ciftlik Bank] is an attempt to form a Ponzi scheme by cyber means," Customs Minister Bulent Tufekci said on 10 January 2018, reported news site Haberturk. BBC / March 16, 2018
U.K. should consider extending Brexit talks, Commons Panel says
Tesla boss in line for mega-pay deal
Electric carmaker Tesla, facing pressure on a number of The U.K. is running short of time to reach a full deal with fronts, is asking shareholders for a show of support for the European Union and should consider seeking an extenchief executive Elon Musk. sion of next year’s withdrawal deadline in order to complete the work, the U.K. Parliament’s cross-party Brexit comThe firm has called a special meeting this month for investors mittee said. to vote on a 10-year compensation plan for Mr Musk. Under the plan, Mr Musk could receive stock awards worth an esti- The U.K.-EU talks are due to end by October, the deadline set mated $2.6bn - among the largest in US history. The grants by both sides, with Britain leaving the bloc at the end of next would only be distributed if the firm, which has made consis- March. The committee said that if substantial aspects of the tent losses, hits certain milestones. Major holders of Tesla future partnership remain unresolved at that time, the governstock, including investment firms Baillie Gifford and T Rowe ment should seek more time to ensure an agreement Price, have said they intend to support the pay plan, providing “sufficiently detailed and comprehensive” can be reached. “In a vote of confidence. But shareholder advisory groups have the short time that remains, it is difficult to see how it will be cautioned against the proposal, saying it is too generous. The possible to negotiate a full, bespoke trade and market access vote comes as Tesla confronts several years of mounting ques- agreement, along with a range of other agreements,” including tions about its operations. Investors are impatient about delays on the Irish border, the committee said in a report released Sunin the production of Model 3 cars, a new model that is suppo- day. The proposed transition period set to start after the mandased to target a more mass-market clientele. US regulators have tory March 29, 2019, exit should also be capable of of being raised questions about the firm's financial disclosures, while extended, if necessary, the committee recommended. Under EU some shareholders have complained about the board's indepen- rules, countries seeking to exit the bloc have two years to work dence and its 2016 decision to buy SolarCity, a money-losing out details after formal notification. The U.K. is the first gosolar power company backed by Mr Musk and led by his cou- vernment to invoke the so-called Article 50 process. Blosin. Outside the financial world, people have voiced concerns omberg / March 18, 2018 about the firm's autopilot features and workers have spoken out about abrupt dismissals and a discriminatory work environment. BBC / March 16, 2018
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ARTICLE OF THE WEEK The only thing keeping Maduro in power is the opposition If Venezuela's opposition really wants to remove Nicolas Maduro, it must unite behind renegade candidate Henri Falcon. Can anyone win in an illegitimate election? This is the big question in Venezuela today, as commentators and citizens alike debate whether to participate or abstain in upcoming elections, where one candidate, Henri Falcon, has defied the opposition coalition's decision not to take part.
Asa Cusack Dr Asa Cusack is Managing Editor of the LSE Latin America and Caribbean blog, author of Venezuela, ALBA, and the Limits of Postneoliberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Caribbean and editor of Understanding ALBA: Progress, Problems, and Prospects of Alternative Regionalism
In short, the answer is "yes". Paradoxically, the very lack of legitimacy that undermines these elections has also created the conditions for a viable candidate to garner broad support and unseat Nicolas Maduro. But for that to happen, the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) must back Falcon, and begin to convince a desperate and disillusioned electorate that voting can make a real difference. The most obvious reason why an opposition candidate can win is that, according to one of Venezuela's most reliable pollsters, around 75 percent of those eligible to vote would be willing to vote against Maduro. Or to put it another way, "never, ever in the history of Chavismo over the last 20 years, has it been so clear that people want real change". Sadly, the complexity of this picture tends to be obscured by infantile narratives of opposition good guys versus government bad guys, where in reality the largest political group in Venezuela is the 51 percent supporting neither. Essentially, since the death of Chavez, most Venezuelans have been voting for the side they deemed to be the lesser of the two evils, but the cynicism and incompetence of both sides has gradually worn down even this minimal enthu-
siasm. Support for Maduro has been ravaged by devastating economic, political, and social deterioration. Runaway inflation has eroded purchasing power and instilled a sense of intractable economic chaos. A dysfunctional currency regime has destroyed local industry, enabled massive corruption, and - combined with declining prices and production of oil - provoked serious scarcities of vital food and medicines. The resulting social hardship has fuelled unrest and emigration, but the conventional political channels for change have been blocked by anti-democratic means. As for the opposition, no amount of hagiographic foreign journalism can erase what most Venezuelans already know: 1. 2. 3.
The MUD's leaders are overwhelmingly drawn from the richer, whiter side of society and have never shown any sign of understanding or caring about the poorer, darker majority in the way that Chavez did. These leaders themselves have been all too willing to support anti-democratic measures, not least the 2002 coup and subsequent oil strike. Despite having nearly two decades in opposition to shape a coherent platform for government, they have never advanced beyond their one unifying goal of removing the incumbent.
As veteran pollster and analyst Luis Vicente Leon has noted, this opposition acts with all the self-obsessed short-sightedness of a teenager, and its leaders and parties inspire neither support nor sympathy. Henri Falcon: traitor, Trojan horse, or potential president? The key reason behind the MUD coalition's decision not to participate in the upcoming elections was that two of its figureheads, Leopoldo Lopez and Henrique Capriles, are barred from running. Even without considering wider democratic failings, they are quite right to claim that this one fact makes the elections illegitimate. They are, however, quite wrong to think that the participation of one systematically disadvantaged candidate could lessen this illegitimacy, which is abundantly clear both at home and abroad.
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ARTICLE OF THE WEEK Moreover, rather than being a traitor for deciding to run - or worse a Trojan horse for Chavismo - Falcon's middle-ground status could prove more appealing than the usual MUD candidates to Venezuela's unrepresented majority of disaffected "neither/nor" voters and disgruntled Chavistas. Falcon was indeed associated with Chavez even prior to his presidency, later becoming a regional governor with the ruling party's backing. But he very publicly broke with Chavez in 2010 as his government's serious failings became clear, moving instead to the centre-left Fatherland for All Party (PPT). Later, as campaign manager to opposition candidate Henrique Capriles in 2013, he was instrumental in helping the MUD reach a wider constituency by recognising Chavez's social-policy successes; Capriles' loss by a single percentage point is still the closest the opposition has come to regaining the presidency. Falcon is also from a poorer, more mixed background than most opposition figureheads, as well as being - like Chavez - a former soldier. Though opposition and government alike could depict him as a turncoat, this varied background means that he knows both sides of Venezuela's stark political divide, has experience of public administration, and has already come close to engineering an opposition victory in far less favourable conditions (following Hugo Chavez's death). Since launching his campaign he has also made clear commitments that speak to public concerns: to tackle inflation through dollarisation, to reduce the potential for corruption by serving a single term, and to promote a peaceful transition both by releasing political prisoners and by disavowing persecution of Chavista officials. This moderate approach is strategic and pragmatic rather than moral or ideological, which is precisely what is required in a context of entrenched polarisation where the candidate could pick up support from all sides given the overwhelming unpopularity of his opponent. Even without MUD backing, Falcon already leads Maduro by 16 points in head-to-head polling. Hope, help, and turnout But the real danger to Falcon's bid - and the main reason that he needs MUD support - is that this election will be decided by turnout rather than voter preferences.
As it stands, only 41 percent of voters are "very willing" to vote - a figure usually around 70 percent at this stage - whereas a further 20 percent are "very unwilling". Within the hard core of definite voters, Chavistas are significantly over-represented, whereas those determined not to vote are almost entirely opposition supporters. If this situation prevails on election day - even more so if the opposition calls for a boycott - staunch Chavista voters will show up in the greatest numbers and return Maduro to the presidency with a low turnout. If, however, the opposition were to back Falcon or simply participation, a relatively modest 54 percent turnout could produce a Falcon victory. MUD backing would also have an important effect on momentum and hope, particularly with election day over two months away. Though the MUD is far from representative of the entire opposition, its stance sets the tone for critical media that are far freer and more influential than commonly believed. And in Venezuela, this hope is more than a warm fuzzy feeling, as it can serve to assure Maduro voters direly dependent on the benefits of political patronage that supporting an alternative candidate represents a risk worth taking. MUD backing is also crucial in terms of the final barrier to popular hope and participation: fear of electoral fraud. One of Falcon's conditions for running was that the process would follow the same standards as 2012 and 2015 elections, with every step open to international observers. While the UN may not be able to send a full mission at such short notice, nor without a Security Council or General Assembly mandate, the key task of scrutinising storage and transfer protocols in Venezuela's electronic system could be performed by a more specialised, lower-level mission. Paper copies deposited in ballot boxes for auditing of the electronic vote, meanwhile, could then be monitored by national observers. Again, the MUD has far more experience and manpower apt for this task than the smaller coalition behind Henri Falcon. And if Falcon wins? So, can anyone win in Venezuela's illegitimate 2018 presidential election? The only answer is "yes", but the possible gains depend on turnout, which in turn depends on whether the MUD calls for a boycott, participation, or support for Falcon. While abstention offers nothing more than another round of violent and violently repressed street protests, devoid of any wider strategy, participation offers the chance for an unusually moderate, big-tent candidate to take the presidency, yet without whitewashing an election that is unquestionably illegitimate. The greater the participation, the more likely such a victory becomes and the harder for the government to deny it. Maduro would either have to accept the result and give up power or force electoral authorities to commit out-and-out fraud of a kind not previously seen in Venezuela, thereby robbing his government of what little legitimacy remains. Maduro's incompetence and Falcon's defiance have given the MUD leadership a better opportunity to defeat Chavismo than they ever managed to craft on their own. Now it's up to them to take it. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance. 11
EDITOR Ege Seçgin REDACTOR Ekin Su Yılmaz COORDINATORS Şevval Uslu, Işılay Merve Güzbey, Fırat Arslan, Kağan Dağdeviren, Demir Demirgil EUROPE Mert Malkoç, Oğuzhan Sabuncu, Şevval Uslu AMERICAS Kadir Köylü, Demir Demirgil, Ege Seçgin ASIA Işılay Merve Güzbey, Murat Kuran M. EAST & AFRICAS Nazım Çınar Duvaryapar, Fırat Arslan TURKEY Kağan Dağdeviren, Emir Teker, Cemal Balaban ECONOMY & BUSINESS Şevval Uslu
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