6 March, 2018
Volume 12, Issue 9
Foreign Policy and International Relations Club
Dış Politika ve Uluslarası İlişkiler Topluluğu
Germany's SPD members approve coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservatives Germany's chancellor will get a fourth term after her junior partners, the SPD, voted for a coalition deal. The new government could be in place in less than two weeks' time, ending months of uncertainty. More than five months after Germans went to polls in the September 24 national election, Germany will be getting a new government. The final hurdle was cleared when the Social Democratic Party (SPD) rank-and-file sanctioned the coalition deal that party leaders had negotiated with Angela Merkel's conservatives.
Sixty-six percent of party members who voted supported a continuation of the grand coalition, while 34 percent opposed it — a clearer margin than many in the party had expected. More than 450,000 SPD members hab been called upon to cast their votes in a mail-in ballot. The outcome was announced at party headquarters in Berlin on Sunday morning.
deal], we've come closer together. That and was forced to resign after he flipgives us the strength for the process of flopped on the issue. Social Democratic renewal we are embarking upon." leaders were persuaded to conclude another deal after winning key concessions The coalition agreement can now be sig- from Merkel and her Christian Democrats ned, and the Bundestag will elect Merkel (CDU), as well as earning consent on chancellor of Germany for the 19th legis- these posts from the CDU's Bavarian lative period. It's thought the vote will sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The SPD will have control of Germany's powerful Finance Ministry, among other things. Conservatives have already named their ministers in the new government, while Social Democrats are expected to announce their picks for the party's six cabinet positions this week. Party Chairman Scholz did not specify names on the topic of who would be filling the six posts, but he did say that the SPD team would consist of three men and three women and a mixture of familiar and new faces. Detake place on March 14. It will be the utsche Welle / March 4, 2018 third grand coalition in Merkel's 13 years as German leader, but it only came about after efforts to form a coalition with the Greens and center-right Free Democrats (FDP) failed.
"This wasn't an easy decision for the SPD," said acting party Chairman Olaf Former SPD Chairman Martin Schulz Scholz. "In the discussion [about the initially ruled out another grand coalition
THIS WEEK
EUROPE Page - 2
ASIA & PACIFIC Page - 3
OPINIONS Page 4-5
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Page - 6
AMERICAS Page - 7
TURKEY Page - 8
ECONOMY & BUSINESS Page - 9
ARTICLE OF THE WEEK Page - 10-11
EDITORIAL Page - 12
EUROPE Marine Le Pen: French far-right leader charged over Isis tweets National Front president posted photo of James Foley’s decapitated body with the caption: ‘Daesh is THIS!’. French far-right leader Le Pen has been charged over tweets depicting Isis propaganda.The charges were issued against the National Front leader for “distribution of violent images”, the prosecutor’s office in the Paris suburb of Nanterre said. If the case reaches trial and she is convicted, the 49-year-old could face three years in prison and a €75,000 fine. Prosecutors opened an investigation in December 2015 into a series of graphic social media posts by Le Pen, which included a photograph of the decapitated body of US journalist James Foley. The other pictures showed a tank rolling over a man in an orange jumpsuit and a man being burned alive in a cage. “Daesh is THIS!” Ms Le Pen wrote alongside the images, using the Arabic acronym for the group. As deputy in the National Assembly Le Pen is afforded some immunity from prosecution, but in November a cross-party committee in the French parliament stripped her of protection over the three tweets. The far-right leader’s Twitter posts were greeted with a backlash, and Mr Foley’s parents said they were “deeply disturbed” by the use of the photograph of their son for political gain. “We are deeply disturbed by the unsolicited use of Jim for Le Pen’s political gain and hope that the picture of our son, along with the two other graphic photographs, are taken down immediately,” Foley’s parents said. Mr Foley, a freelance journalist, was captured in Syria in 2012 and beheaded in August 2014. The Independent / March 1, 2018
On the 4th of March, general elections will be held in Italy. Main contenders to be the leading party are expected to be the centre-left Democratic Party and the leftwing Eurosceptic 5-Star Movement. Deutsche Welle / March 3, 2018 Jan Kuciak, who was writing an article on corruption allegations, and his fiancée Martina Kusnirova were shot dead at their home last Sunday. Kuciak, 27, had been investigating alleged political corruption linked to Italian organised crime in Slovakia. BBC / March 3, 2018 In a blow to Catalonia's bid for independence, former leader Carles Puigdemont has pulled back from a bid for a second term in office.He said his withdrawal was the only way to get a new government underway. Euronews / March 2, 2018.
EU piles pressure on internet giants to remove extremist content Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other internet companies must show the EU within three months that they are removing extremist content more rapidly or face legislation forcing them to do so. Several governments increased pressure on social media companies to do more to remove illegal content — from material related to groups such as ISIS and incitement to commit atrocities.But in its strongest call yet to the technology sector the European Commission recommended measures that internet platforms should take to stop the proliferation of extremist content, including the removal of such material within an hour of being notified of its existence. Reuters / March 1 , 2018
Dozens die across Europe as cold weather blights continent 'Homeless people, refugees and migrants especially vulnerable,' says WHO. At least 50 deaths across Europe have now been linked to the cold conditions sweeping across the continent, as people as far south as the Mediterranean felt the impacts of a Siberian weather system.As many as 21 of those who have died are from Poland alone, the majority being homeless people sleeping rough.There has also been severe disruption to transport and public services around Europe, with schools, roads and rail services forced to close.The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued a warning over the extreme weather, saying cold temperatures increased the risks attributed to heart and lung disease. The freezing weather began for many across Europe last Friday. Since then, 21 people have died in Poland, six in the Czech Republic, five in Lithuania, four in France and four in Slovakia. Two died in Italy, Serbia and Romania, while one death was recorded in both Slovenia and the Netherlands. The Independent / March 2, 2018
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ASIA & PACIFIC Russian Military: Terrorists Breach Ceasefire Regime in Syria Militants' snipers keep targeting the crossing in Syria's eastern Ghouta, preventing civilians from leaving, the head of the Russian center for Syrian reconciliation, Maj. Gen. Yury Yevtushenko said Saturday. "The situation near the crossing keeps worsening. Snipers keep targeting the vicinity of the crossing," Yevtushenko told a briefing. The head of the center added that none of the civilians were able to leave Eastern Ghouta because of the militants blocking access to the humanitarian corridor. Yevtushenko reiterated that Nusra Front terrorist group, was preparing an attack on the UN humanitarian convoy and planning to blame this on Damascus. Maj. Gen. Vladimir Zolotukhin, the spokesman for the center, mentioned these plans earlier in the day, citing the data from the Syrian intelligence. Moreover, the ceasefire regime is being constantly breached in Syria's provinces of Aleppo, Damascus, Eastern Ghouta, Latakia, the head of the Russian center for Syrian reconciliation Maj. Gen. Yury Yevtushenko said Saturday. "The 30-day ceasefire regime introduced on the territory of Syria by the [UN] Resolution 2401 is being constantly breached by illegal armed groupings in the provinces of Aleppo, Latakia, Damascus, as well as in Eastern Ghouta," Yevtushenko told a briefing.Yevtushenko added that Damascus' residential areas and its suburbs have been shelled eight times in the last 24 hours, with 64 shells fired, which left civilians injured and led to material damages. Sputnik / March 3, 2018
‘Fear-Filled City’ of Kabul Reaches Out to Taliban for Peace Talks
South Korea’s National Assembly overwhelmingly passed the law which cut the maximum weekly work hours to 52, down from 68. The law comes into force in July and will apply to large companies before being rolled out to smaller businesses. The Guardian/ March 1, 2018
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has offered a deal to the Taliban to begin peace talks at a time when “Kabul has become most dangerous place in Afghanistan,” a peace activist returning from the war-torn nation told Radio Sputnik on Wednesday.
Armenia’s parliament chose Armen Sarkissian as the country’s new president on Friday in a vote that is meant to herald the start of a power shift to the country’s prime minister and parliament. Reuters/ March 2, 2018
North Korea shipping chemical weapons supplies to Syria
Putin has announced that Russia has developed and is testing a new line of strategic nuclearcapable weapons that would be able to outmanoeuvre US defences, in a possible signal of a new arms race between Moscow and the west. The Guardian / March 1, 2018
"It begins to seem kind of normal," Kathy Kelly, a Chicago-born activist and founder of Voices for Creative Nonviolence, told Loud & Clear hosts Brian Becker and John Kiriakou. Recalling her most recent trip, Kelly explained, "A boxing match had just been won by an Afghan team and people went up on rooftops and fired weapons. By offering to recognize the Taliban as a political group on Wednesday, the Afghan government can include it in formal peace talks. Sputnik / March 1, 2018
North Korea has shipped supplies to the Syrian government that could be used to make chemical weapons, United Nations investigators have revealed. The disclosure, in a confidential 200-page long report seen by the New York Times, comes as the US and other countries have accused Syria of using chemical weapons on its own civilians, including a suspected chlorine gas attack in Eastern Ghouta in the past few days. The items provided by North Korea reportedly included acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers. Investigators also detailed sightings of North Korean technicians working at chemical weapons and missile facilities inside Syria. The report appears to confirm long-standing fears that Pyongyang may be funding its own weapons of mass destruction programme by trading its technological expertise with third parties. The possible chemical weapons components were part of at least 40 previously unreported shipments from North Korea to Syria between 2012 and 2017 of prohibited ballistic missile parts and materials that could be used either for civilian or military purposes. The UN declined to comment on the report, which was written by a panel of eight experts tasked with checking North Korea’s compliance with sanctions. The Telegraph / February 28 , 2018 3
OPINIONS Customs Union: end of May’s cabinet? On the last Friday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May made a long speech “setting out her vision on future economic partnership” between the United Kingdom and European Union. In other words, Mrs May tried to make her government’s stance on leaving EU customs union clear. Furthermore, main opposition Labour Party suggested a new stance that signifies a policy shift to having “a new customs agreement rather than staying in the current customs union”, with a speech given by its leader Jeremy Corbyn on February 26.
Emir Teker
First of all, one needs to grasp the very basic rationale of Brexit and Customs Union -and also of Single Market- in order to understand the agenda better. So, we will try to give some fast facts on those issues in a paragraph and then, analyse the agenda of both the Conservative government and Labour.
Political Science and Public Administration
The basic aim and idea of Brexit is to take back the control on various areas, from trade to law and immigration, or at least this is what the Leave camp pledged during the referendum campaign. More concretely, leaving European Union would basically give the country a ‘precise’ autoemirteker@gmail.com nomy without jurisdiction of constitution like EU treaties and European Court of Justice. In terms of trade and business, leaving EU ‘naturally’ means leaving single market and customs union -here I mean that one of the ‘major’ component of the former is the latter. However, there has been a huge discussion going on about the country’s future position in the customs union after Brexit. In that regard, what is so controversial is that being a part of customs union currently refers to inability of any partner country to make its own deals with other countries while enjoying tariff-free trade. So, it might be natural to ask what the point of leaving is if the country will not be able to set its own rules by maintaining such kind of partnership and this is what Brexiteers exactly thinks. For instance, a prominent Brexiteer and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said in an interview that his country cannot really leave the EU by staying in the customs union effectively the single market. Thus, is this all about striking its own deals for the UK? Certainly, yes. Then, let us look at the developments both in the government and main opposition. Conservatives- PM Theresa May and Downing Street have implicitly said -to make Brexiteers in her party relievedthat the UK must leave the customs union and single market, but she has not made any public statement setting out her stance on the issue clearly until the last Friday. As we mentioned, her speech was about the future economic partnership between the UK and EU and the dominant theme of it was the fact that leaving EU would not mean cutting ties with Europe -such that her country would continue to “participate in EU science, education and cultural programmes”-, along with that both sides should ‘weather the storm’. I think this is the very characteristic of “Brexit means Brexit” idea and this is what Mrs May has been doing since she came in the office: ‘trying to keep calm both sides’ rather than giving them something concrete. In addition, despite the warnings of “cherry picking” by the EU side, she made clear that her country “could not expect to enjoy all benefits without al obligations of membership”. In my opinion, for the first time, the UK firmly showed that it no longer seeks to be in a privileged position in the transition period of Brexit, but it seeks for full autonomy. PM also insisted that both sides “had to accept hard facts”, in other words ‘inevitable’ consequences, by giving facts such as access to single market [would be less than it is now] or ECJ rules’ jurisdiction [will continue on certain areas]. However, can this kind of Arendtian discourse -that any ‘right’ action comes with an inevitable isolation- really get a positive reaction from EU? Lastly, one should not overlook the pro-EU MPs of the Conservatives since it has long been said that they have the potential to back an amendment to the “Trade Bill” regarding leaving EU customs union after Brexit. This move refers to a huge corporation among Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and pro-EU MPs, and it may lead to government’s fall. Labour- Before May’s speech, as we said, the main opposition also set out its new policy -which, in fact, signifies a shift, although Jeremy Corbyn argued that it approves what they have been saying throughout Brexit process- on customs union and single market. At this point, initial position of Labour was basically “getting benefits of the customs union and single market” without saying a word on how to get it done. Now, what the main opposition suggests is “a new deal doing the same work of current customs union” with the EU after Brexit. Then, this raises the question of what the difference between a new deal and the current one is. According to analysists, one answer to that might be that the former represents a movement of the party to a softer Brexit. However, this policy change may also be seen consistent with Labour’s motto “for the many, not the few”, since a new agreement would contain some points which are different from the current one and which would boost national economy and rights of the disadvantaged despite the idea of “new deal doing the same work”. Apart from that, it is worth indicating that
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OPINIONS that Labour backbenchers -who also proposed above-mentioned amendment- have demanded from Mr Corbyn to pursue a policy stance that keeps the country both in the customs union and single market. When it comes to the immediate reaction from Labour to PM’s speech, Mr Corbyn suggested that it “offered no clarity and real sense of priorities”. Main opposition leader also argued “sticking to some EU rules” would be used to “drive the country to privatisation and block support for British industry”. Here, he seems to blame the PM for using those rules as cover-up for continuity of Conservative party programme and ideals. For me, this should be seen as a “legitimation game” of the government and, here, one should notice the clash of Labour’s consistency and Conservatives’ cunning. To conclude, nowadays in the UK, while struggling to unite her party and cabinet, PM Theresa May is also facing a rebel from her party that may lead to her fall. In the meantime, the Labour is at a crossroads that may give it a chance to defeat the government and to call for a new election. Thus, we will see what will happen next together with the British people.
Why Turkish economy is fragile? Vulnerability for an economy is being too much dependant on external funding. By external funding we mean every channel for money to support the economy(government, central bank etc.). There is a classification called fragile five. When Fed announced that it would stop collecting bonds from the market, the most depreciated currencies were Indian rupee, Turkish lira, Brazilian dollar, South African rand, and Indonesian rupiah. This was an indicator that these countries were vulnerable to external finance issues since they were dependant too much on external funding. After then these countries were called the fragile five. There are different groups made by different institutions for fragile five. For example Morgan Stanley at the end of 2016, announced their grouping as fragile five as following: Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa, Mexica, and Colombia. In November 2017, US based rating agency Standart & Poor’s announced their fragile five: Argentina, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan. As you can notice, the common point is that Turkey is in both “fragile five”.
Mert Malkoç Business Administration
Being too much dependant on external funding is a problem for many emerging marmalkoc.mert@metu.edu.tr kets. From this point of view, it can be understandable that Turkey’s position is acceptable. However, Turkey’s position is different than others since it has both inflation and depreciation problem. Turkey’s 2016 referandum made it more problematic in terms of an secure economic environment, and also political environment. These issues made Turkey more risky for investments. The pressure on Central Bank of Turkey is also another concern for economists. Low workforce participation rate is still a bottleneck for Turkey. The country is not performing well in terms of research and development activities. So, the creative workforce environment cannot emerge as a result and this causes quality workforce of the country to migrate. Turkish economy also has current account deficit which is the main concern in terms of depreciation and fragility. Although Turkey banned borrowing foreign currency from local banks for citizens and corporations that do not have an income in form of a foreign currency, since borrowing from Eurozone and US cannot be banned, borrowing problem still persists. When the borrowed money in terms of foreign currency increases, the fragility of the economy also increases. This is true for one reaseon and that is depreciation since Turkey has to pay its debt obligations, it will do it by buying foreign currency with its own currency which fluctuates too fast. Structural problems of the country is ignored by the government. According to Mahfi Eğilmez, former president of the Central Bank of Turkey, the structural problems can be categorized as follows:1)Political problems: human rights violations, democracy and its implementation etc 2)Social problems: Education, woman rights etc. 3)Economical problems: Inflationary pressure, current account deficit, taxation system etc. These problems are affecting overall Turkish economy and its performance altogether. Negative sides of Turkish economy can be listed as above. To conclude, although it has many problems, Turkey is the most stable and developed country in its region. When copmared to Middle East and stagnant Balkan economies, Turkish economy is performing well. Turkey’s young population is also another potential for the country eventhough Turkey cannot benefit from this advantage as it should. Turkey’s trade volume is increasing every year. Growth figures were good in terms of stability for the last year. Another advantage for Turkey is that Central Bank of Europe is still giving money to the economy as contrast to Fed. When 2008 crisis showed up, powerful central banks started to give money to the global economy to reverse the effects of the crisis. Banking institutions were severely affected as a result of the crisis. The point I want to mention here is that Turkey did not experienced the crisis as a deep one since it has taken necessary precautions for its banking system after 2001 crisis. What we can understand from here is that if Turkey understands and corrects its problems, it can benefit from its potential and maybe one day, it can have a mature market.
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MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Pro-government soldiers 'killed in Turkish air strike' At least 36 pro-Syrian government troops have been killed by a Turkish air strike in the region of Afrin, a monitoring group says. The strike targeted a camp at Kafr Jina in the northern Syrian region, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said. The pro-government troops entered Afrin two weeks ago to back Kurdish forces. They are fighting a Turkish military offensive that was launched to clear Kurdish groups from Afrin. Turkey considers the Kurdish militiamen there terrorists. The Syrian government has denounced the offensive as a "blatant attack" on its sovereignty and, according to state media, forces were sent in to support the Kurds. The air strike followed one of the bloodiest days for Turkish troops since they began the offensive in January.Eight Turkish soldiers were killed and another 13 were injured on Thursday in fighting in Afrin.Five "heroic comrades fell as martyrs and seven were wounded", an initial statement from Turkey's military said. A second statement announced three more soldiers had been killed and six more wounded. No official details of the clashes were given but the private Dogan news agency said Kurdish fighters used tunnels to ambush Turkish special forces in the Keltepe district.A Turkish helicopter sent in to rescue the wounded was hit and had to turn back, the report added. BBC / March 3, 2018
The Syrian regime has taken control of several villages in the rebelheld enclave of Eastern Ghouta, official news agency SANA said Sunday, in a major turning point in a two-week offensive. CNN / February 4, 2018
Residents are reported to be fleeing the rebelheld Eastern Ghouta enclave in Syria as the situation there was described as "beyond critical". BBC / February 4, 2018
A militant jihadist group with links to al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for Friday’s deadly attacks on the army headquarters and French embssy in the capital of Burkina Faso. Africa News / March 4, 2018
Turkey's Erdogan looks to bolster Africa links in 5-day tour Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has started a five-day trip to Africa aimed at boosting his country's influence in the continent. Starting off in Algeria on Monday, Erdogan is seeking to give a boost to economic relations between the two countries, notably through a business forum organized for the visit.In a statement, Algeria's presidency said the two-day visit to the country will allow Erdogan to share with his counterpart Abdelaziz Bouteflika "his analysis of the regional and international situation, especially in the Middle East, North Africa and Sahel."After Algeria, Erdogan will visit Mauritania, Senegal and Mali. Fox News / February 28, 2018
US Jerusalem move is 'official adoption of Israeli narrative' Arab Knesset member Ahmad Tibi joins Palestinians in UK to condemn US stance after embassy relocation brought forward. US President Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel signals the "official adoption of the Israeli narrative", a prominent Arab Knesset member said, one week after Washington confirmed it was bringing forward to May the date the US embassy would be moved from Tel Aviv to the Holy City. Ahmad Tibi, speaking at a conference on Saturday in London titled, Is President Trump legalising the occupation?, claimed: "The most dangerous element of Trump's embassy decision is that it says Israel has the right to decide where its capital is, simply because parliament and the Supreme Court are there." "This is an official adoption of the Israeli narrative." Trump sent shock waves around the world after announcing in December that he recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital, as he pledged to move the US embassy to the city. US Vice President Mike Pence had earlier claimed the embassy move would take place in 2019, but the US Department of State said on February 23 that the relocation would happen in May this year, to coincide with the 70th anniversary of Israel's declaration of independence. The announcement was seen as a provocation. Al Jazeera / March 4, 2018 6
AMERICAS Donald Trump stuns allies by signalling backing for tighter gun control Stance puts president at odds with NRA and Republican lawmakers and Trump urges lawmakers to be ‘strong’ on background checks. Donald Trump has repeatedly endorsed a series of gun control proposals that put the Republican president at odds with the National Rifle Association and stunned lawmakers within his own party. Trump called for a “beautiful” comprehensive bill that would expand background checks on gun purchases, remove guns from the hands of the mentally ill, bolster security on school campuses and restrict young people from purchasing certain weapons. Within hours of the meeting’s conclusion, conservatives and some Republicans turned on Trump, who was elected with broad support from the gun lobby and claimed on Wednesday that the National Rifle Association had “no bigger fan”. Breitbart, the far-right news organization that fanned the flames of Trump’s rise, denounced the president as a “gun grabber” who “cedes” to Democrats. Trump, who ran the meeting like a boardroom CEO, pointing at lawmakers for updates on their legislation, called on Congress to be “very strong” on background checks, repeatedly offering his support for a plan that failed to pass the Senate in April 2013, months after a gunman killed 20 young children and six staff members at Sandy Hook elementary school. “You have to be very, very powerful on background checks. Don’t be shy,” Trump said during the televised session. He added: “I’d rather have you come down on the strong side than the weak side. The weak side is easier to do.” The Guardian / March 1, 2018
Venezuelan security forces killed seven Colombian militants in an armed clash on the border between the two countries, a senior Venezuelan security official said Wednesday. Sputnik / March 1, 2018 Venezuelan presidential vote had been brought forward to April 22 with two of the opposition's strongest candidates banned from taking part. Deutsche Welle / March 1, 2018 Honduras arrests energy executive tied to murder of environmental activist. Prosecutors have accused him of "providing logistics and other resources" for the murder of Berta Caceres. Legal experts claimed her murder was "the product of a plan" by executives to push through a mega-dam project. Deutsche Welle / March 3, 2018
US approves sale of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine The Trump team is prepared to sell weapons worth $47 million to Ukraine, which has been fighting Russia since 2014. While Ukraine has said the weapons would be used defensively, Moscow said they would encourage force. The US Statement Department announced on Thursday that it had green-lighted a possible sale of Javelin missiles and launch units to Ukraine in a transaction valued at $47 million (€38.3 million). The decision follows through on a promise made in December to provide the country with defensive weapons in its four-year long conflict with Russia. "The Javelin system will help Ukraine build its long-term defense capacity to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to meet its national defense requirements," the Pentagon said in a statement. Deutsche Welle / March 1, 2018
Brazil 'Invites Deforestation' With Overhaul of Environmental Laws Sweeping changes to legislation, dubbed the forest code, are a blow for campaigners seeking to protect the Amazon and other rainforest areas. Brazil’s supreme court has upheld major changes to laws that protect the Amazon and other biomes, reducing penalties for past illegal deforestation in a blow to environmentalists trying to protect the world’s largest rainforest. Congress agreed to sweeping revisions in the law in 2012, including an amnesty programme for illegal deforestation on “small properties” that occurred before 2008 and reduced restoration requirements in others. Environmentalists said the revised laws, known collectively as the forest code, would create a culture in which illegal deforestation is acceptable. “This awards the guy who deforested, the guy who disobeyed the law,” said Nurit Bensusan, policy coordinator at the Brazilian non-governmental organisation, Instituto Socioambiental. Farmers and the powerful agriculture lobby argue that the new laws allowed for continued growth of the sector key to the Brazilian economy, without bogging it down in ajudicating crimes of the past. The protections in question include those that apply to the Amazon rainforest, the majority of which lies in Brazil, which is vital to soaking up carbon emissions and countering climate change. The Guardian / March 1, 2018 7
TURKEY Our ally is Turkey, not the YPG: US official The United States’ “real ally” in Syria is Turkey and not the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a senior U.S. official has said, stressing Washington’s commitment to re-building trust with its longstanding NATO ally despite scores of bilateral disagreements. “We are very careful not to use that word [alliance] for the YPG. We are not using the YPG as an ally of the U.S. Our ally is Turkey and that is something that the Secretary [of State Rex] Tillerson emphasized in his remarks in Ankara. We have a longterm, enduring, historic alliance and partnership with Turkey and that is not going to change,” a senior U.S. official told reporters in Ankara on March 1. The remarks came a week before a joint Turkish-American mechanism is slated to meet in Washington to try to resolve existing problems between the two allies, particularly on Syria. Turkish diplomatic sources have said the mechanism will first meet on March 8, but the U.S. official was not in a position to confirm this. “The U.S. has made it clear from the beginning that our military cooperation with the YPG was a temporary, tactical arrangement aimed entirely at combating DAESH [an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]. We have made it clear that once DAESH was defeated we would have no plans for an enduring military relationship with the YPG and certainly no plans for an enduring political relationship with the Democratic Union Party [PYD]. That has not changed,” the official stated. Hurriyet Daily News / March 1, 2018
Armenia has scrapped a peace agreement it signed with Turkey in 2009 in a failed attempt to normalize relations between the two countries, the Armenian president’s press service said on Thursday. Reuters / March 1, 2018 More than 875 undocumented migrants have been held across Turkey in 2 days since Tuesday, according to security sources and Turkish military Wednesday. Anadolu Agency / February 28, 2018 Two deputies of the Turkish opposition Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), Ahmet Yildirim lawmaker from the eastern Mus province and İbrahim Ayhan, lawmaker from the southeastern Sanliurfa province, lost their seats in parliament on Tuesday. Hurriyet Daily News / February 27, 2018
Main opposition CHP plans ‘election safety’ talks with other political parties The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has set up a delegation tasked with holding “election safety” talks with other political parties. “In order to discuss provisions in the bill regarding election alliances and ‘election security’ as well as to exchange views to ensure ‘election safety,’ a delegation has been set up,” the CHP said in a statement on March 1. Following talks with political groupings, the delegation will also request meetings with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) that submitted the bill, which is currently being discussed at a parliamentary commission. The legislative proposal submitted by the AKP and MHP primarily paves the way for a pre-election alliance. But it also includes provisions concerning “election safety,” according to which the ballot boxes could be relocated for “security reasons” and constituencies can also be merged together or mixed. Hurriyet Daily News / March 1, 2018
Turkey says France ‘mischaracterized’ presidential phone call over Syria Turkey early Feb. 28 refuted a French statement about a phone call between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, saying it was “dishonest” and mischaracterized their discussion of a Syria cease-fire, Anadolu Agency reported.“ French President Macron referring to U.N. Security Council Resolution 2401 regarding the humanitarian situation in Syria, Mr. Macron did not make reference to Afrin,” Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said in a written statement. The French presidential office’s statement published on Feb. 26 had said: “The president of the Republic stressed that the humanitarian truce applied to all of Syria, including Afrin, and should be implemented everywhere and by all without any delay to stop the spiral of violence in progress.” Aksoy called the statement “dishonest,” stressing that Turkey conveyed to French authorities its displeasure at their “giving false information to the public.” The U.N. Security Council on Feb. 24 passed a resolution calling for a 30-day cease-fire in Syria “without delay.” Turkey has stressed the cease-fire is meant to give relief to civilian areas hit hard by the Bashar al-Assad regime’s airstrikes and is not related to Turkey’s ongoing “Operation Olive Branch” in Afrin against YPG. Hurriyet Daily News / February 28, 2018 8
ECONOMY & BUSINESS May gets down to business on Brexit Theresa May's speech was another key milestone in the Brexit process and for once business leaders did not leave totally disappointed. What business will most appreciate is that this was not a complacent speech. It acknowledged the scale and complexity of the task in hand and made some pragmatic concessions to the realities of trade with the EU. Most of those concessions will please the business community, but some may not satisfy members of her party. Perhaps the most eye-catching passage for business was the prime minister's indication that the UK would be prepared to pay to remain a member of some European regulatory agencies, such as the European Medicines Agency or the European Aviation Safety Authority. As the regulations change, the UK parliament could choose to enact an identical law - or not - but failing to do so would be in the knowledge that it might affect our membership of the agency. So parliament remains sovereign but in practice would probably not use that sovereignty in case we got booted out of the agency. That will sound suspiciously like rule taking to some Brexit firebrands. She also accepted that on goods regulations, UK standards would have to be at least as high as the EU's - so, no bonfire of regulation that frankly no one in the business world wanted anyway. On services, which accounts for about three quarters of the UK economy, she conceded that services had never been included in any meaningful way in previous deals and this accepted this part would be tough. BBC / March 2, 2018
Turkmen section of transAfghanistan gas pipeline completed
Diesel car sales tanking in Germany
Germany has reported a jump in new car registrations The pipeline — developed by the TAPI Pipeline Company over the past four months. At the same time, consumers felt — will carry 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year a lot less inclined to buy diesel cars, following a series of and create about 12,000 jobs. scandals and looming driving bans in cities. Sales of new cars increased strongly across Germany in February, industry data showed Friday. The number of new cars registered on the country's roads rose by 7 percent to 261,700 last month, the VDA manufacturers' association said in a fresh report. The figure brought the total for the first two months of the year to 531,000, the highest level since 1999, the industry lobby group said in a statement. Nonetheless, sales of new diesel cars continued to decline, separate data from the KBA vehicle licensing authority revealed. While 62.9 percent of new cars were gasoline-powered, diesel vehicles accounted for just 32.5 percent in February, marking a staggering 19.5percentage-point drop from a year earlier. Diesel drivers, politicians and industry watchers closely followed a court ruling earlier this week that paved the way for older diesel cars to be banned from a number of cities because of their high NOx emissions. Deutsche Welle / March 2, 2018
The leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan celebrated with the foreign minister of India the completion of the Turkmen section of the trans-Afghanistan pipeline which will transport natural gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. “From 2015, we have done a lot of work in order to reach the current phase of the project,” explained Muhammetmyrat Amanov, CEO of the TAPI Pipeline Company. “We have concluded our work in Turkmenistan and we now move to Afghanistan. We plan to finish the job and put gas in the pipeline towards the end of 2019.” Terrorist attacks in Afghanistan are of great concern to everyone involved in the project. The Taliban have declared that they wish to destroy the pipeline. “Afghanistan is of course a country which has high risk of security, but in the mean time, we have full preparation from the governments’ side for protecting TAPI,” said the acting minister of mines and petroleum of Afghanistan, Nargis Nehan. “We are aware of the risk, but you also understand that TAPI is such an important project, that not only the government of Afghanistan, but also the people will do whatever they can to protect the pipeline.” The pipeline will run more than 1,800 km to the Fazilka Village on the Indo-Pakistani border. Euronews / February 28, 2018
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ARTICLE OF THE WEEK Iran may pull out of the nuclear deal before the US Iran will be forced to withdraw from the historic nuclear deal if it does not gain any economic benefits from it.
For the first time since a landmark nuclear deal was signed between Iran and six world powers the US, UK, Russia, France, China, and Germany - in 2015, Iran is rethinking its strategy and possibly planning an exit.
Massoumeh Torfeh Dr Massoumeh Torfeh is the former director of strategic communication at the UN Assistance Mission for Afghanistan (UNAMA).
On February 22, Iran has given an ultimatum that it will withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) if it does not benefit economically from it and if major banks, companies and business entities continue to refuse to do business with Iran due to negative statements by the US president, Donald Trump. "We cannot remain in a deal that has no benefits for us," Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Abbas Araghchi told Chatham House in London.
Araghchi who is close to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and was one of the main JCPOA negotiators, accused President Trump of "violating the letter and the spirit" of the deal by creating a "destructive atmosphere". For its part, the US has been threatening for months to quit the deal if its "disastrous flaws" are not fixed. In January, Trump delivered an ultimatum to his European allies: either fix the accord or the US would walk away from it by May 12 when the next US sanctions waiver is due to be ratified. Trump identified three problems with the deal: its failure to address Iran's ballistic missile programme; the terms under which international inspectors can visit suspect Iranian nuclear sites; and the "sunset" clause under which limits on the Iranian nuclear programme start to expire after 10 years. When other parties to the agreement rejected to "fix" these points, claiming they are all outside the boundaries of JCPOA, Trump proposed a hushed-up supplemental agreement that addresses "Iran's development or testing long-range missiles, ensures strong IAEA inspections, and fixes the flaws of the "sunset clause". Araghchi's speech at the Chatham House was indirectly devoted to explaining why these issues are "illusional". He said the deal is only related to non-proliferation, and that IAEA after nine "tough" inspections had acknowledged Iran's compliance. He also ridiculed the objection to the "sunset clause" saying there is no such clause in the deal. "Iran's commitment to stay away from nuclear weapons is permanent," he said. The Saudi factor President Trump is reportedly entering into a new potentially lucrative atomic energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, which may explain why he is so adamant to tighten the conditions of the Iran deal. According to a report by the Washington Post, the Gulf kingdom is refusing to include in the billion dollar agreement any clauses that would restrict its uranium enrichment capabilities, unless the nuclear deal with its arch foe Iran is tightened.
Iran must have received the information on this new initiative from its European and Russian partners and put it together with other reports about cooperation between the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel for isolating Iran out of Syria and Iraq. All indications are that the US would probably never cancel the remaining sanctions and would seek ways of imposing more.
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ARTICLE OF THE WEEK Araghchi said this atmosphere of uncertainly was "killing the deal"."It is like poison for the business community that wants to work with Iran," he told Chatham House. In the last two months, a combination of factors has caused deep anxiety in the Islamic Republic. A stagnating economy has led to internal resentments with high youth unemployment feeding onto nationwide protests. And this has been coupled with a barrage of threats and attacks of unilateral action from US officials and Israel. During the week-long nationwide protests in January, Trump's series of tweets sounded like he was calling for regime change in Iran. In Munich, at the security conference Iran's foreign minister, Javad Zarif, signalled Iran's impatience if the US opts out of JCPOA without sanctions relief: "I can assure that if Iran's interests are not secured, Iran will respond, will respond seriously," he said. "I believe it would be a response that means people would be sorry for taking the erroneous action they did," stressed Zarif. Iran would, perhaps, continue to keep to its commitments until May 12, while leaving the door open for further negotiations provided JCPOA is implemented in full and sanctions are lifted by then as specified. Iran would at the same time increase its militarisation to keep guard for potential attacks and invasions. The testing of its ballistic missiles, which it regards as unrelated to JCPOA, will continue as will its plans "to construct naval nuclear propulsion". Iran's leader has called for increased "defensive power". Had JCPOA been implemented in full by now Iran might have been in a more receptive mood.
Under the circumstances, the moderate government of President Hassan Rouhani has little choice. It must improve the economy fast if it is to avoid further widespread unrest. Labour protests have continued in several cities across the country. Steel workers have been striking for over a week demanding payment of three months' overdue wages. If the uncertainty over sanctions blocks Iran from improving business and international investment, then it would be forced to seek new partners and new deals, most likely with Russia and China. The danger of that outcome is that Iran would roll back to hardline policies, at the top of which would be leaving JCPOA and returning to its full nuclear programme and an even more autocratic isolationist political structure at home. If that's what President Trump prefers, then he's making a big mistake. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/iran-pull-nuclear-deal-180301075429532.html
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EDITOR Ege Seçgin REDACTOR Ekin Su Yılmaz COORDINATORS Şevval Uslu, Işılay Merve Güzbey, Fırat Arslan, Kağan Dağdeviren, Demir Demirgil EUROPE Mert Malkoç, Oğuzhan Sabuncu, Şevval Uslu AMERICAS Kadir Köylü, Demir Demirgil, Ege Seçgin ASIA Işılay Merve Güzbey, Murat Kuran M. EAST & AFRICAS Nazım Çınar Duvaryapar, Fırat Arslan TURKEY Kağan Dağdeviren, Emir Teker, Cemal Balaman ECONOMY & BUSINESS Şevval Uslu
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