The Readout - January 2024

January 2024

Ecommerce strategy and insights report. Navigating Meta and beyond.

Including cracking the US special

The Readout – January 2024

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In this issue

2

Introduction

3

Key trends

4

What’s happening on Meta and Google?

13

Cracking the US special

17

About the Nest Index

30

The Readout – January 2024

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Introduction

After 2022 turned the world of online retail upside down, most retailers have shifted focus last year from rapid growth to finding reliable strategies for profitability. Take a deep dive into the trends and opportunities for ecommerce brands in the January edition of the Readout.

Will Ashton CEO, Nest Commerce

The ups and downs of the last few years have led to big changes for many brands. This is true of our agency. There’s a good chance that your business has changed significantly, too.

Whether inflation continues to decline, or an unforeseen crisis sees it return, it’s likely to be a while before we return to easy growth.

Although there are no shortcuts, strategies have emerged that deliver more reliable results for retailers.

Meta continues to deliver improved results from its improved algorithm and the increased adoption of more sophisticated full-funnel strategies on the platform by retailers.

After a lull in performance in October, conversions picked up sharply in the weeks

3

heading up to Black Friday weekend, and held strong throughout December.

Many retailers were relying on a strong Black Friday to finish the year in profit, and although this has materialised for many, there is an increasing divergence of success.

Many brands, hamstrung by poor strategy are feeling the pinch. Those that are doing well, are still having to fight for their market share.

Poor growth in the UK, as well as challenges in big EU economies like Germany and the Netherlands, make the US more attractive.

McKinsey’s State of Fashion 2024 report highlights that “European growth is set to slow, while US growth is expected to pick up”.

We will set out our key US strategies on pages 17-29 of the report, including how to build a market entry plan, important marketing considerations, and recent case studies.

We will be hosting an event on ‘How to crack the US ecom market’ on 22nd February at the Everyman Theatre Belsize Park for any brands that want to learn US scaling strategies.

We expect 2024 to look similar to 2023.

There is still a lot of opportunity out there for retailers, but it isn’t easy.

The Readout – January 2024

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KEY TRENDS: META

4

KEY TRENDS: META

Higher than expected Q3 to Q4 CPM spike

Black Friday conversion boost for retailers

Brands have enjoyed lower YoY CPMs throughout 2023. We expected this trend to correct somewhat, and for competition to increase in Q4.

Conversion rates were particularly strong throughout Q4, and were 41% higher YoY. During November itself, CVR was 28% higher, while over BFCM weekend, we saw a 14% YoY boost.

However, CPM spiked by more than expected, with a 43% QoQ increase. In comparison, although CPM was high across 2022, it increased by just 6% QoQ in Q4 2022.

Meta has made significant improvements to its algorithm, and it’s paying off for brands that have the right approach.

This is evidence that this peak was more competitive than ever. Due to the rising cost of living, many consumers waited until deals arrived to make purchases, making this Q4 far more important for brands.

Fortunately, CPM still remains 16% lower YoY.

Additionally, consumers are becoming more intentional in how they shop, making it more important to increase awareness and highlight USPs through a full-funnel approach.

+43%

+41%

higher CPM QoQ in Q4

CVR month on month

CPM month on month

Oct 22

Jul 22

Oct 22

higher conversion rates YoY in Q4

Jan 23

Apr 23

Jul 23

Oct 23

Jan 23

Apr 23

Jul 23

Oct 23

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KEY TRENDS: REELS

5

KEY TRENDS: REELS

Performance on Reels keeps getting better

Reels is outperforming TikTok ads

Reels keeps getting better and better across every metric, and is now a valuable format for performance.

Conversion rates on both Reels and TikTok are high, while both suffer from similar low CTR. However, increased adoption means that Reels now has a 39% higher CVR than TikTok ads.

Click-through rates are up by 71% YoY, while conversions have improved by 45% YoY. In addition to the improved performance metrics, the incremental value of Reels is likely even greater as it allows brands to reach and appeal to additional demographics as adoption grows and younger demographics continue to favour short-form video.

+45%

Q1 2023

Despite this, both platforms have a place due to the different audiences that can be reached on them.

+39%

increase in Reels ads conversion rate YoY

Reels conversion rate QoQ

Q4 2022

This is likely down to Meta’s improved algorithm and data.

Meta leverages data across multiple channels and objectives, so it has an advantage in matching brands and products to users.

higher conversion rate for Reels ads vs TikTok ads

Conversion rates by platform (Q4 2023)

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Reels CVR

TikTok CVR

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KEY TRENDS: REELS

CPM remained stable on Reels during peak While CPM spiked by 43% QoQ this peak, Reels continued to deliver efficient spend, and CPMs were up by just 12% QoQ. Meanwhile, Reels CPM was down 17% YoY. With better engagement and conversions, Reels delivered particularly strong results during the competitive peak period.

Whilst there’s a new rulebook for creative on short-form video, these placements cannot be ignored, as audience behaviour shifts towards engaging with short-form video.

+12%

increase in Reels CPM QoQ

Reels CPM

Oct

Nov

Non-Reels CPM

Dec

NEST STUDIO OPTIMISED AD FOR PAPIER

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KEY TRENDS: AUDIENCE

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KEY TRENDS: AUDIENCE

Brands bet big on broad audiences in Q4

ASC delivers as part of a full-funnel strategy

Ad spend on broad audiences was up by 67% QoQ and 194% YoY.

ASC is a powerful solution to some of the challenges with Meta but going all in is risky. Our approach to it has been to tread carefully and test to find the right fit for it.

This tactic is more scalable as it provides Meta’s algorithm with more freedom to find new audiences when compared to lookalike or interest.

Relying on broad and letting Meta’s algorithm drive conversions is proving to be the most efficient audience strategy. Not only is it more scalable, but it likely reaches more incremental audiences.

According to the results from aggregated Nest lift tests, running ASC campaigns alongside business as usual activity delivered a 78% increase in incremental purchases compared to not leveraging ASC campaigns at all.

That said, lookalike and interest still have a role to play in raising awareness with your ICP and pushing them down the funnel to convert.

However, ASC shouldn’t be used by itself, and should be seen as a lower-funnel tactic.

+67%

+78%

increase in spend for broad audiences QoQ

Broad spend

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Lookalike spend

Q2 2023

Blended account incremental purchases with/without ASC activity

Interest spend

Q3 2023

blended incremental purchases for brands leveraging ASC

Q4 2023

Purchases with just BAU

Purchases with BAU + ASC campaigns

The Readout – January 2024

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KEY TRENDS: OBJECTIVES

8

KEY TRENDS: OBJECTIVES

Strategies shift to full-funnel performance

Measuring brand’s incremental impact

Investment in awareness and traffic activity increased YoY by 800% and 49% respectively. This reflects a shift in strategy, as brands move budgets towards driving long-term growth and incrementality.

How can you measure the incremental impact of brand activity?

Conversion lift tests will tell you the difference between running ads and not running ads, and prove your ad spend matters.

And this shift is already paying dividends.

According to aggregated Nest data, running brand activity alongside DR drives 24% lower cost per incremental conversion.

According to Nest data, brands that invested in upper-funnel saw an in platform ROAS increase by 35% between October and November, compared to an increase of 2% for brands not leveraging full-funnel.

In one lift test, running brand alongside DR meant our client could reach x3.4 more people and generate 30% more incremental revenue, at only a 4% lower incremental ROAS. In another test, brand activity alongside DR drove 69% higher incremental ROAS.

x8

-24%

increase in awareness ad spend YoY

Traffic spend

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Blended cost per incremental conversion with/without brand activity

Awareness spend

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

blended cost per incremental conversion with brand + DR activity

Q4 2023

CPIC with just DR activity

CPIC with Brand + DR

The Readout – January 2024

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KEY TRENDS: CREATIVE BLACK FRIDAY AD FROM NEST CLIENT HIMS

Sales ads converted best after awareness activity Brands that had invested in in upper-funnel activity throughout 2023 saw a dramatic improvement in performance for their Sales ads, showing the impact that brand building has on lower-funnel ads.

Conversion rates improved by 52% YoY for Sales USP ads compared to just 25% YoY for brands which were running performance-only campaigns.

After building awareness throughout the year, these brands were able to cash in with Sales ads in Q4.

+52%

YoY increase in CVR for Sales USP ads for brands running brand awareness

Conversion rate YoY increase for Sales USP with/without brand activity Awareness spend per quarter

increase Q4 2021 Sales CVRQ1YoY 2022 for just DR

Q2 2022

Sales CVR increase Q3 YoY 2022 for Brand + DR

Q4 2022

The Readout – January 2024

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KEY TRENDS: CREATIVE

Impactful creative drives 60% higher ROAS Adoption of Nest Studio creative was up by 174% YoY between H2 2022 and H2 2023.

In a comparison between Nest Studio optimised ads and ads that weren’t optimised for the same cohort of clients, Nest Studio delivered 36% higher CTR and 49% lower CPM in H2 2023.

This meant that our ads delivered 44% lower CPA and 60% higher ROAS. Paid-social-first creative is crucial for performance on Meta.

+174%

Nest Studio spend YoY between H2 2022 and H3 2023

Adoption of Nest Studio (H2 2022 to H3 2023)

H2 2022

H1 2023

H2 2023

NEST STUDIO PRODUCTION AD FOR CREW CLOTHING

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KEY TRENDS: GOOGLE

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KEY TRENDS: GOOGLE

Google CPC rising as Meta costs fall

PMax delivered strong results in Q4

Throughout the summer, Meta’s YoY CPM and CPC decreased.

Measured against most metrics, PMax has delivered better results as the year went on, with a 75% higher CVR in Q4 when compared to Q1.

At the same time, Google’s CPC increased due to Google inflating the floor without telling advertisers, while competition increases on lowerfunnel channels like Search due to the challenging economy.

This trend corrected somewhat in Q4 as the cost of traffic spiked for Meta during peak, while CPC on Google reduced slightly. However, we expect Meta CPM to fall dramatically in Q1 2024, bringing it close to parity with Google again.

-24%

Meanwhile, total spend on the objective more than doubled between Q1 and Q4 as it unlocked growth for our clients.

Performance Max is a great format for elevating your Google campaigns, although it should be part of a wider channel mix, including YouTube ads for upper funnel.

+75%

lower CPC for Google compared to Meta across 2023

higher CVR for PMax in Q4 2023 vs Q1 2023

PMax CVR month on month

Google CPC

Meta CPC

Jan 23

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Apr 23

Jul 23

Oct 23

The Readout – January 2024

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KEY TRENDS: TIKTOK

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KEY TRENDS: PINTEREST

Brands went big on TikTok this peak

Pinterest performs strongly for premium

This peak saw Meta CPMs spike by 43% QoQ.

Pinterest performed well with our audience and we saw a 35% YoY and 132% QoQ increase in conversion rates in Q4 2023.

In order to beat the competition and reach incremental customers, our clients bet on TikTok in November, after seeing impressive results and low CPMs from the platform leading up to peak.

Pinterest users are 27% more likely to buy premium products, and its audience skews towards middle income demographics.

We saw a 58% increase in TikTok spend between October and November. The majority of this spend (76%) was dedicated towards prospecting, so our clients could reach new customers from TikTok’s unique audience.

With a highly engaged and affluent audience, Pinterest has a lot of potential as part of a wider channel mix, especially for demand generation.

58%

+35%

increase in TikTok spend between October and November

Pinterest conversion rate by quarter

TikTok spend by month

Q4 2022

Jul

Aug

conversion rate YoY on Pinterest

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

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13

What’s happening on Meta?

CPM The 2023 trend of reduced CPM continues, with increased inventory through Reels, a more condensed peak competition period, and a higher percentage of spend being directed at brand objectives.

Q4 2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q4 2022

2023

-16% +43%

CTR We saw reduced CTR in 2024, due to higher use of Reels, increased ad load, more competition in discounting making it more difficult to cut through the noise and subdued appetite in 2023 due to the rising cost of living.

YoY QoQ

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2023

-31% +7%

CVR CVR is up significantly YoY. This due to more intentional clicks as consumers waited for deals in November, as well as improvements to Meta’s algorithm and data, which have fueled improved performance across 2023.

Q4 2022

YoY QoQ

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2023

+41% +19%

YoY QoQ

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Meta market breakdown UK CPM

-20% YoY +31% QoQ

CTR

-45% YoY +10% QoQ

CVR

+28% YoY +13% QoQ

US CPM

EU -22% YoY

CPM

+9% QoQ CTR

-45% YoY

+18% QoQ CTR

-27% QoQ CVR

+48% YoY +33% QoQ

-34% YoY -27% YoY -7% QoQ

CVR

+17% YoY +30% QoQ

The Readout – January 2024

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What’s happening on Google?

CPM In a challenging economy, Google has become more competitive, as brands shift spend towards bottom-of-the-funnel channels that drive reliable sales. This is reflected in a big 63% YoY increase in CPM.

Q4 2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q4 2022

2023

+63% +14%

CPC Higher engagement is softening the impact of CPM rises on CPC. This is likely due to Google adding additional inventory placements through PMax, which includes YouTube Shorts. Strong creative is essential here.

YoY QoQ

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2023

+20% -7%

CVR CVR has increased QoQ due to BFCM. A 24% YoY increase is a good signal that our strategy of leveraging automation through data consolidation whilst maintaining ad relevance is driving conversions.

Q4 2022

YoY QoQ

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2023

+24% +43%

YoY QoQ

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Google market breakdown UK CPM

+60% YoY +12% QoQ

CTR

+47% YoY +26% QoQ

CVR

+28% YoY +40% QoQ

US CPM

EU +65% YoY

CPM

+18% QoQ CTR

+12% YoY

+7% QoQ CTR

+17% QoQ CVR

+0% YoY +27% QoQ

-14% YoY +32% YoY +26% QoQ

CVR

-15% YoY -16% QoQ

Cracking the US

The Readout – January 2024

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Don’t eat an elephant with a spoon A conversation with Natasha Billing: expert in ecommerce international marketing and business growth and Nest Commerce’s Luke Jonas who have helped a number of European brands break America using paid social.

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The Readout – January 2024

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2024 Growth Plan stalling?

Try the US UK and European brands are eyeing the US market for their 2024 growth plans due to more favourable economic conditions than Europe.

American inflation is lower, consumer demand remains strong, and the continent is isolated from some of the negativity seen in Europe as a result of wars, sluggish growth and energy prices.

The US has always provided European brands with a vast elephant sized market for expansion, given its large English (and Spanish) speaking populations. Challenges such as geographic complexity, state tax laws, shipping, and cultural nuances exist.

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DTC, ecommerce and fashion brands in particular benefit from increased AOV and target audience numbers which can drive significant increases in overall revenue from a successful US launch.

However, challenges such as geographic complexity, state tax laws, shipping, and cultural nuances exist.

Entering the US takes some navigation to hit the right formula for success but the payoff can be huge and drives significant growth for brands.

In this report, Natasha Billing shares insights for success in the US, drawing from her experience launching ASOS in 2016, taking fashion brand NA-KD. com international in 2019 and as global marketing director at homeware brand, Made.com from 2021.

Natasha is in conversation with Nest’s Luke Jonas. Nest has successfully supported fashion brands Nadine Marebi and ME+EM, and equestrian brand LeMieux, scale rapidly in the American market with sophisticated paid social strategies.

The Readout – January 2024

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Understand the ‘organic nibble’ for the right launch timing

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So, when should brands launch in the US market?

Many brands, especially those that allow global shipping and don’t restrict the markets they can ship to, will be getting some data signals from the US market on whether Americans are interested in their product range, even if not yet converting into a viable organic revenue stream.

US website traffic, email sign ups or social media followers are customer intent signals, creating fertile ground for a potential launch. However brands will need more than this to make the significant decision to plunge into the US market.

A brand needs to have hit a decent product market fit and have hit some indicators that show scaling in its home market is slowing before acting on these signals.

An expansion to any new market will be less cost efficient at launch than continued growth at home.

Luke comments: “The general consensus is that a UK brand needs to have hit circa £20M in revenue and be starting to see ROAS reductions in the home market before the time is considered right for taking on the US challenge.”

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How to build a market entry plan The first step of a market entry plan is decent modelling based on the opportunity cost of increased scaling in the home market vs new market entry.

‘Maslov’s hierarchy of ecommerce needs’ is Natasha’s approach to the consideration factors for building a plan for market entry.

This is a checklist of how your brand stacks up versus the next best player in the new market on all the aspects that make your business significant at home, such as:

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1. Product, range and proposition The first step is a thorough competitive analysis of how your brand’s product range and proposition meets the US customer’s needs.

‘Organic nibbles’ can demonstrate traction across the product range, but be prepared for surprises and lean into the data signals to uncover new customer insights.

Nest client Nadine Merabi was surprised that it was known for its bridal wear in the US: marketed in Europe as its “white resort range”.

ASOS’s US launch was spearheaded by the brand’s maternity products getting significant pick up from US influencers However, both brands were successful because they listened to these customer fans and used these insights as a launch platform to get noticed.

The Readout – January 2024

2. Shipping, distribution and returns Many fashion brands choose to ship from Europe initially before setting up a US distribution centre but other DTC brands and retailers with bulkier items need to get this step sorted prior to launch.

Logistic partners can be a useful stepping stone to avoid the cost of warehouse set up prior to significant revenue streams.

Consideration should be given to the next best competitor’s shipping and returns process.

On the flip side, shipping from Europe does have some tax advantages in that no US tax is chargeable unless the business has an office on US soil. It also avoids the necessity of understanding complex US local state tax laws at launch.

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This can help with initial margins but will obviously delay delivery.

With less differentiated products with strong US competitors, the lack of same day shipping in a market driven

by Amazon setting the benchmark for customer experience, may significantly reduce onsite conversion rates.

Processing returns can also be an issue that needs to be addressed with many international customers surprised by the vast shipping charges on returns sometimes eclipsing the cost of initial purchase.

Again, logistics partners can help here by making the process smoother for customers.

Ultimately, both approaches have benefits, so you should weigh up the cost of deliveries and returns against tax savings and the initial cost of setting up local distribution when considering what is right for your brand.

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3. Pricing and payment options These need to be at least as good as the biggest competitor in the US which may take some modelling and new payment processes on your website.

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Marketing considerations The US market is vast with higher media costs.

The biggest pitfalls Luke and Natasha have seen are brands trying to take on the whole territory at launch.

The key success factor is finding a defendable niche that makes any investment levels appear large to the target audience.

Natasha recommends adopting a Minimum Viable Proposition playbook through a test-and-learn philosophy.

Entering the US market requires a nuanced approach, given its sheer size and regional variations.

Again, look for cues in the customer data through organic nibbles at first before scaling.

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Bored of London: Try New York!

One strategy that works well is a city-bycity approach, starting with bigger cities across the US. Natasha comments: “Success stories often emerge from a strategic focus on specific regions. Cities like New York, Boston, and cosmopolitan areas with an international outlook tend to be favourable for fashion brands, while localised pockets around distribution centres can yield positive results.”

Knowledge of your target customers in Europe is key here.

She continues: “Be very controlled and structured in your approach as you will find that there are clear differences in the US between how Californians and New Yorkers choose and buy from a product assortment perspective”

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Find a defendable beachhead

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Find a defendable beachhead through geography, platform, or interest groups.

Plan realistically based on available investment and roll out gradually, city by city or range by range, until hitting scale.

Luke comments: “One of the biggest errors we’ve seen is too small a spend at launch which doesn’t yield measurable results. New York state has 20M people which is roughly the size of London and the South East in the UK. However, a budget around £30k per month on paid social will be enough to start seeing measurable results in a market like New York and is a good bet for the initial test and scale stage if your brand is getting organic signals that it resonates in the city.”

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Are high media CPMs offset by higher AOVs? American media markets are more competitive which pushes up CPMs. It is important that brands consult their inhouse data experts, their most successful digital platforms’ partners or external agencies, to gather appropriate costs and benchmarks on target audience sizes, frequency, CTRs, AOVs and investment levels required.

Luke comments: “Digital platform media costs are higher in the US but this is partly compensated for by the significantly higher AOVs seen.

However, brands should also factor in the lack of organic brand awareness in the US so will need to consider a more full-funnel strategy to get traction here with increased spend initially in the upper funnel targeting new customers to make the lower funnel performance spend convert at higher rates.”

When it comes to marketing tactics, a multi-channel approach is recommended.

Performance marketing on platforms like Meta, TikTok, and Google and specifically Snapchat in the US, are crucial.

It will be more important to adopt a fullfunnel approach to digital platforms than in the home market as there is no ground swell of awareness driving lower ROAS at the bottom of the funnel.

Meanwhile, influencer marketing and light touch PR can add emotional resonance and brand credibility. They represent useful investments at launch.

+158%

higher Meta AOV for US customers vs UK customers

UK Meta AOV

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

US Meta AOV

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

The Readout – January 2024

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Expanding beyond digital Once full funnel digital platforms activity are yielding strong results it might make sense to expand to other channels.

Connected TV (CTV) in the US is a strong option as it can provide controlled visibility and efficiency compared to traditional outdoor advertising which can be prohibitively expensive in the US when compared to Europe. This makes CTV a viable option for reaching broader new audiences.

Physical retail, pop up stores or working with a wholesale distribution partner are reemerging as strong contenders to increase visibility as part of a wider branding strategy in key US locations rather than sales tactics judges simply on short-term payback.

The key is to be flexible and adapt strategies based on audience behaviour.

The current landscape is challenging for retailers, so what does entering the US market look like today?

Below are two 2023 case studies from Nest clients.

The Readout – January 2024

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US CASE STUDY

Powering Nadine Merabi’s transatlantic expansion Nest helped Manchester-based fashion brand Nadine Merabi enter the US market. The brand had seen its initial success, driven by organic growth on Instagram, plateau.

Nest honed in on the brand’s best performing regions on the East and West Coasts, and deployed an effective full-funnel advertising strategy to drive awareness of the brand’s range and successful conversions at the bottom of the funnel.

Nadine Merabi is now resuming its growth trajectory, with a marketing strategy that’s amplifying the brand’s presence on both sides of the Atlantic.

After a successful Q4, the retailer is planning to launch pop-up stores across the UK and US.

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The Readout – January 2024

US CASE STUDY

Unbridled US success for equestrian retailer LeMieux Nest helped LeMieux, an equestrian product brand based in the UK, expand to a turnover exceeding £40 million in 2023 via its successful US launch.

LeMieux had employed a demand capture/bottom-of-thefunnel approach prior to working with Nest but this had stopped scaling effectively and they needed a rethink.

Nest helped the brand adopt a more holistic approach to generate demand amongst colder, less aware audiences.

A key component of this strategy was the effective use of creative content, particularly for upper funnel channels like Meta and YouTube repurposing high-quality videos of horse riding and dressage.

This led to an eightfold increase in its investment in Meta and YouTube and drove strong ROAS in both their home market and the US.

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The Readout – January 2024

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How to crack the US market

A NEST MATINEE 22nd February, 3:30PM-6:30PM at Everyman Theatre Belsize Park

Learn US strategies from the best in the business, including: •

Ciaran McClellan, Growth Director at ME+EM

•

Natasha Billing, CMO (ex-MADE. com, NA-KD and ASOS)

•

Ankur Shah, founder and ex-CEO of Mahabis, entrepreneur, and advisor to Nest

A packed schedule of talks on: The macro conditions, the opportunity, and the vision.

A Q&A on the ME+EM journey plus Ciaran’s experience as a marketer making waves in the US market.

A comprehensive online and offline marketing approach to the US market.

Networking and drinks at a theatre in north London: With attendees from 150 retail brands, including Nest clients.

Book your free ticket here

The Nest Index The Readout – January 2024

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The Nest Index is our online advertising index that draws on aggregated data from our portfolio of ecommerce clients. It’s used by our teams daily to benchmark your brand’s performance and uncover what’s working, what’s not, what you should do differently and where you need to be bolder.

40+

ecommerce brands

76%

prospecting campaigns

2.3b

impressions

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