All Quiet in The Hills

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EDITOR’S

INTOLERANCE IN PARIS S I write this, it is two days to the endgame at the Paris

climate conference. There has been little breakthrough on the contentious issues that elude an agreement, but still everybody is clear that there will be an agreement.

I am beginning to understand why they are so confident. Let me explain.

For the first time since the beginning of climate negotiations, the erstwhile climate renegades are in control of the dialogue, narrative and the audience. The Umbrella Group is a grouping led by the US and includes the biggest rich polluters, such as Australia and Japan, who have always been in the dock for not taking action to combat climate change. In Paris, these countries have done an image change.

They are now the good guys. They want the world to be ambitious in meeting not just the 2°C temperature threshold, they are pushing for even staying below 1.5°C. They say they are pushing because they care for the small island nations, which will suffer horrendous consequences with rising temperatures. They also want an effective arrangement to monitor progress and to ramp up actions to meet these targets.

How can this be wrong, responds a spellbound audience.

This makeover is not overnight, or sudden.

These countries have also done their homework, so that the script is crafted skilfully and the propaganda is spread. Audaciously.

Their civil society has been cajoled into believing that this is their time. The US ngos’ allegiance is absolute because they (genuinely and naively) believe their government is doing all it can in spite of Republican Party opposition. Their media is in full attention—the likes of The New York Times and bbc have been seconded to scold and reprimand the governments of developing countries like India for misbehaviour. So, what the US government officials cannot say, their media spells it out. It is fine tactics and grand theatrics. And nobody speaks without a cue.

If you are not one of them, then the script is also pre-rehearsed for you. The promptness of the response—The New York Times published an article chastising the Indian prime minister for daring to speak about fair share of the carbon budget within hours of his speech in Paris—should tell you this.

The screenplay goes like this. If anyone raises an issue, it is first dismissed as being obstructionist. Then, it is said, these issue-raisers are anti-American or—even more reductively—anti-something.

Then, if you persist, you are told you are merely an unwanted pest.

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You are basically told that you should get lost because the party is over. Climate change is real and now all the emissions that could be burnt have been burnt and nothing remains.

But you don’t give up. If you still persist and demand that the deal should be equitable, that their lack of ambition is what has put the world at risk today and that they must vacate space then their response is the ultimate shut-up. They simply say: catastrophes are at our doorstep and you are asking for bread? How immoral and insensitive can you be? Shame on you!

These countries forget that it is the very countries asking for leftover crumbs that are the victims experiencing worst weatherrelated calamities. They have not contributed to the emissions that are causing the increase in temperature. But they are certainly worst impacted today. The stock of gases already in the atmosphere comes from the same countries that are on the high pedestal today.

The fact is the Umbrella Group has spurned all efforts to control their own runaway emissions.

They have not contributed money. They have not contributed technology. They have not done anything to pay for a transition to clean energy in the developing world. Ironically, they want the transition to happen only in the developing world.

But it is also a hard fact, not an irony, that once the carbon budget is consumed—as they have done—there is little anybody can do about it other than cry injustice. It is also a fact that these countries continue to have unambitious plans to curtail their emissions. But since their takeover of the climate talks is complete, there is nobody to ask these inconvenient questions.

There is no other way to explain the absolute lack of dialogue that exists now. In Paris, in this CoP21, there seems nobody else is in attendance. There is only one narrative and no conversation. The Europeans who are hosting the conference are lost. The French, always adroit in managing conflicts, seem vacuous and irrelevant.

But it is clear that if we want to live in an interdependent world, voices of dissent cannot become illegitimate or be put on mute. This is climate change intolerance. And like all intolerance, this must be resisted and won over.  TARIQUE AZIZ / CSE

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SORIT / CSE

letters

Meaty debate This is with reference to the article ÂŞTrouble with vegetarian fascistsÂş (16-30 November, 2015) by Archana Yadav. The author argues that vegetarianism is not possible without killing because farming involves clearing jungles. It is indirect slaughter. But animal agriculture is the single largest use of land. It occupies about 45 per cent of global surface area. That is because in comparison to plant food production, the production of meat, milk, and eggs is highly resourceintensive, inefficient and polluting. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, over 70 per cent of the global freshwater consumption is used in animal farming. And a 2014 study published in New Scientist found that just by going vegan you can reduce the amount of greenhouse gases your diet contributes by up to 60 per cent. It is no wonder that in 2010, a United Nations report said that a global shift towards a vegan diet is necessary to save the world from hunger, fuel poverty and the worst impacts of climate change.

The author also quotes the founder of the fad Paleo Diet, and looks to huntergatherers for drawing conclusions about whether people should eat meat. But as Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine says, the Paleo Diet is best left in caves. A study published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition showed vegetarians were 32 per cent less likely to die or need hospitalisation as a result of heart disease. And research into the dietary habits of more than 70,000 people, recently published online in JAMA Internal Medicine, showed those who ate a vegetarian diet had a 22 per cent lower risk of colorectal cancer than those who were not vegetarian. Eating vegan is also good for the conscience. Every year, billions of animals are violently killed for their flesh.

P OORVA JOSHIPURA CEO, PE TA INDIA

* Several studies have shown that vegetarians live longer. While it may be attributed to better

exercise, it still shows that a vegetarian diet is not inadequate. Vegan diets, too, have been deemed to be adequate by the American Dietetic Association. Also, legumes and beans are what one replaces meat protein with. It is true we are omnivores and meat is a nutrient-rich food.

However, it is unnecessary. What we could agree on is that politically motivated food fascism is 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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undesirable. I am of the opinion that people should be convinced to take up vegetarianism based on sound reasoning and ethical motivations, rather than because of dogma and religious superstition.

RAHUL NE T TATH VIA WEBSITE VIA

First, it takes more resources to produce meat than plant-based foods. So either you want to restrict meat to the wealthy or support

factory farms. Second, though meat has nutritional value, many medical bodies say it is healthy not to eat meat. If we can tell people not to use air-conditioning for environmental reasons, why can we not encourage them to not eat meat? I like most of what you publish.

But not this article. I do not like the religious vegetarian movement, but I think needlessly expanding our carbon footprint is awful.

ANANDA MENON

Author replies: Resource-intensive, industrial-scale animal farming is not what's happening in India.

In India, meat, except chicken, comes from marginal and small farmers. It is produced through pastoral and mixed crop-livestock systems. Pastoral systems have a significant potential to store carbon and can improve the water productivity of whole ecosystems in some places. In mixed system the two activities complement each other as animals eat crop residue and give manure in return. Over twothirds of the human population live in mixed systems and apart from livestock, they also produce half of the global cereal share. Why should poor people suffer because some richer countries are producing meat the wrong way?

One should encourage environment-friendly practices and discourage environmentally destructive ways rather than send the message that meat is bad.

Founder of the Paleo Diet movement Loren Cordain is a health expert who has published more than 100 scientific papers on in peer-reviewed journals. He has received the Scholarly Excellence Award at Colorado State University for his contributions to understanding optimal human nutrition.

There is a great deal of difference between the science of Paleolithic nutrition and diet fads.

Joshipura has mentioned two health studies to show animal-based foods as unhealthy. These are observational studies.

Such studies only show association, not cause and effect. Any hidden variable could be deriving the association. The first study showing association between heart disease and non-vegetarian diet did not adjust its results for variables such as diabetes and hypertension. Non-vegetarians in the study

had a higher rate of diabetes, and diabetics are known to be prone to heart disease.

The study assumed meat might have been responsible for diabetes but it could as well have been sugar. Using the same dataset (EPIC-Oxford), another paper published by the same researchers found that ªmortality from circulatory diseases and all causes is not significantly different between vegetarians and meat eatersº. Yet another paper drawing from the same database concluded that ªthe incidence of colorectal cancer was higher in vegetarians than in meat eatersº.

The second study showed that vegetarians had a 22 per cent lower risk of colorectal cancer than non-vegetarians. Relative risk can dramatise a result, so one should check absolute figures. Turns out the absolute difference in cancer rates was 0.014 per cent! More interestingly, among vegetarians this study included not just vegans, dairy and egg eaters, but also fish eaters and semivegetarians (whatever that means). When you split the groups only the result for fish eaters is statistically significant, meaning the association is not likely to have occurred by chance, and the cancer risk was the lowest.

So what does this study show? That fish is associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer.

The article said it is not easy to maintain good health on just ªplant foodsº, which is vegan, not vegetarian. And I maintain not all populations can thrive on vegan diet, American Dietetic Association's opinion notwithstanding. In fact, not all populations thrive equally on any one diet. Diversity is the key to health and sustainability, and meat has a place in it. As for legumes and beans they too come with anti-nutrients and carbs.

16-31 DECEMBER 2015

07/12/15 11:09 AM

ERRATUM

Promote cloth over sanitary pads ASHOK TRIVEDI

THINKSTOCKPHOTO

Only fruits, veggies good for health

This refers to the article ªSimple, easy and healthyº (1-15 November, 2015). It is disappointing to see that Down To Earth is lauding an initiative that promotes accumulation of mountains of sanitary waste. A woman uses anywhere between 120,000 to 150,000 sanitary pads in her lifetime. Imagine how much landfill space they would occupy. Burning is the worst way to dispose them of, as most sanitary pads are synthetic and release dioxins

This refers to the interview ªReversing food cycleº (1-15 November, 2015). A recent US dietary guidelines committee found that vegetables and fruits were the only dietary elements that proved beneficial in preventing or treating an array of diseases. They were followed by whole grains, which had moderate to strong evidence for their consumption in every case. These guidelines seem more in tune with what our Ayurvedic physicians have been advocating for a long time.

Michael Pollan, author of several books on food including The Omnivores Dilemma, writes that cooking is ªthe single most important thing an ordinary person can do to reform the American food systemº.

Sadly, many of us depend on instant and ready-to-cook foods. Pollan gives a simple guideline to check the goodness of a food product. ªIf it came from a plant, eat it; if it was made in a plant, don't.º

when burnt. The old way of using cloth is making a comeback now with a number of women switching to reusable cloth pads that are more comfortable than napkins, and do not create mountains of contaminated waste. Many women are also switching to menstrual cups, which are reusable. These are the things that need to be promoted, not sanitary napkins and their incinerators.

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contents

11

16 Paddy cure

Delhi gets cracking

Two initiatives in Punjab are trying to solve the problem of unchecked paddy stubble burning, which pollutes the Delhi air every winter

24 COVER STORY

With the pollution in Delhi reaching alarming levels, the city's government will issue advisories on polluted hot spots from now

Over the hills and far away What is fuelling migration of people from the hills of Uttarakhand to its terai areas?

OBIT

Science to prevent suicides

B D Sharma The bureaucrat, who spent four decades of his life fighting for tribal rights, passes away

In its just-released report `Living Anomaly', the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) recommends the use of scientific technology in crop loss assessment to prevent farmers from committing suicides

14

Silent springs no more

22

Meghalaya launches a programme to revive 70,000 of its dying springs

18 20 From `fasting' to `fast' food

Fox nuts or makhana, have long been eaten during religious fasts in Bihar.

Now they are finding new consumers across India 8 DOWN TO EARTH

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16-31 DECEMBER 2015

08/12/15 5:17 PM

A long walk ahead The science of predicting election results in India still has a long way to go before it becomes accurate

55

44

Green copyright

40

Intellectual property rights on green technologies are pushing up costs for developing countries

Nainital's green warrior Environmental activist Ajay Singh Rawat talks about his efforts to make Nainital an eco-sensitive zone

OPINION

37

A plan full of flaws

Watch that fertiliser

The Maharashtra government's draft plan for the Godavari basin does not tackle the real issues at all

48 Perfumes in peril

A new global report says too much fertliser use can result in pollution

56

Kannauj's traditional perfume industry is struggling to remain relevant

ANALYSIS

52

34 In harm's way Experts discuss ways to protect wild animals who increasingly move out of protected areas

Don't promise the moon

Black , the new white

2015 shows that governments should not sell agendas packaged as dreams

Black rice, known for its medicinal properties, is being revived in the Northeast

42 Monitoring giants A number of models are recording the disruption of weather and ecology to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the Himalayas

38

REVIEW

46

A book with guts

A unique convergence

A new book delves into what it calls ªour most under-rated organº

Science and politics are bedfellows, no matter how strange

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Ayurvedic practitioners advice gahat (Dolichos biflorus) for winters when we eat vegetables that could cause kidney stones. Gahat soup is a mouth-watering way to get rid of kidney stones.

In north India, buds of kachnar are used to make a delicious curried vegetable dish. Buds are soaked in hot water for a couple of minutes and then sauted in ghee along with spices for a few minutes.

16-31 DECEMBER 2015

58

SUMMER: BAEL SHERBET

Bael (Aegle marmelos) tree can grow in a wide variety of climatic and soil conditions. The tree is planted near temples and wherever it occurs naturally, it indicates the presence of groundwater.

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RAIN: MAHUA BHAKHAR

The mahua tree (Madhuca indica) blooms between February and April.

Fruits are munched raw and the seed kernels are crushed to produce edible oil. Mahua flowers are sweet and mouth-watering and are dried for later use

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CROSS HAIRS

THE

Delhi to issue pollution advisories D E L H I ' S P O L L U T I O N control body is planning daily warnings informing people about pollution hotspots and advice that includes going car-free. This move came after the National Green Tribunal (NGT) asked the Delhi government to roll out such measures within a week.

"We are working on a dashboard on the Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC)

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website that will have notifications about polluted areas and the measures people can take," said Delhi environment and forest secretary Ashwani Kumar. The dashboard would be mobile-friendly while a mobile app is also in the works. Delhi recorded some of the worst instances of smog in November this year. For more on this, visit www.downtoearth.org.in ď Ž

POINT

18

million

Number of severely undernourished women in the world Source: Journal of the American Medical Association

www.downtoearth.org.in 11

04/12/15 6:08 PM

FORTNIGHT

THINKSTOCKPHOTO

C L I M AT E C H A N G E

THE

2015 the warmest year on record: WMO’ Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that global warming, along with a strong El Ni�o, has made 2015 the warmest year since 1850. It has added that the five-year period—2011 to 2015—has been the world's warmest period on record, with extreme weather events making it worse. A preliminary estimate based on data from January to October this year shows that the global average surface temperature for

THE WORLD

2015 was around 0.73 ÊC above the 1961-1990 average of 14 ÊC and approximately one degree above the pre-industrial period (1880-1899). 2015 is continuing the trend of rising temperature worldwide since 1998. Before this, 2014 was the world's warmest year on record, with temperature at 0.61 ÊC above the 1961-90 average. ªThis is bad news for the planet,º WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said. 

Countries commit to prioritise road safety

THINKSTOCKPHOTO

TRANSPORT AND

12 DOWN TO EARTH

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health ministers and top bureaucrats from over 130 countries, including India, have committed to improve public transport, and have pledged to put in place laws and scale up enforcement to make roads safer under the Brasilia Declaration. The declaration was adopted at the second global highlevel conference on road safety held in Brazil on

18-19 November, 2015.

Participants renewed their 2011 commitment to reduce the deaths caused due to traffic accidents to half by 2020. The World Health Organization (WHO's) global status report on road safety published this year states that 1.25 million people die due to road accidents. It is also the leading cause of death among people aged between 15 and 29.  16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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THE

I N FO C U S

Expert maps glacier movement in Karakoram Range

I N CO U RT

COURTESY:USGS

Paul produced the image sequences for four regions—Baltoro, Panmah, Sarpo Laggo and Shaksgam—in the central Karakoram between India and Pakistan.

The study of the animations has been published in The Cryosphere, a journal by the European Geosciences Union.

It shows that most of the glaciers are not retreating, but are advancing.

The NGT, in its order regarding the Demwe Hydro Electric Project on the Lohit river in Arunachal Pradesh, said the case would be decided on the basis of environmental jurisprudence

On November 26, the National Green Tribunal (NGT) directed the Director of Kaziranga National Park to conduct a surprise inspection of the road abutting the park and steps taken by Assam to prevent animal deaths on roads On November 17, the Supreme Court ordered a stay on an NGT order that had directed Bhopal's automobile dealers to conduct corporate social responsibility activities under the polluter pays principle

Frank Paul, a glaciologist at the University of Zurich, has created animations showing the changes in the glaciers of the Karakoram Range over a 25-year period. He made several onesecond animations using images acquired by three different satellites, operated by the US Geological Survey and NASA from 1990 to 2015.

FORTNIGHT

On November 17, the Supreme Court sought responses from the Union government, Vedanta and others on a PIL filed by the Goa Foundation that challenged the Goa government's decision to renew 88 iron ore mining leases in the state

Arunachal Pradesh Assam Madhya Pradesh Goa Kerala

On November 18, the Kerala High Court reserved the verdict on petitions seeking a directive to pay compensation to the pesticide victims of the Endosulfan Tragedy in Kasaragod

On November 23, the U Sagayam committee, probing a multi-crore granite mining scam in Madurai district, submitted its report to the Madras High Court.

Telangana Tamil Nadu

Number of environmental cases reported last fortnight* SUPREME COURT

HIGH COURTS

NGT

07

08

54

*(From November 17 to November 30)

Compiled by DTE/CSE Data Centre. For detailed verdicts, visit www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in

New frog discovered in the Western Ghats A T E A M of scientists has discovered a large, hitherto unknown tree frog during field work in the mid-elevation hill forests of the Western Ghats in Kerala.

It belongs to the Rhacophoridae family and has been named Ghatixalus magnus after its large size, making it the biggest known tree frog in the Western Ghats. ªThis novel species potentially represents the largest known rhacophorid species in peninsular India, attaining an average male body size of 76 mm,º the scientists wrote in the latest issue of international taxonomy journal, Zootaxa. 

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On November 26, the Telangana government appealed to the Hyderabad High Court for vacation of the stay on the government order issued by it with regard to fixing ` 50 as royalty per packet of Bt cotton seeds

V E R B AT I M

``It's as if they have been trained by Joseph Goebbels'' Ð Prashant Bhushan, Lawyer, on the Aam Aadmi Party's Lokpal law

www.downtoearth.org.in 13

07/12/15 5:39 PM

SPECIAL

REPORT

Most parts of India face the seventh consecutive crop failure in three years due to extreme weather events

Minimise crop risk As erratic weather compounds agrarian crisis, experts call for adopting scientific ways to estimate crop loss and provide crop insurance to all farmers JITENDRA | new delhi

VIKAS CHAUDHARY / CSE

A

S WORLD leaders congregated at Paris on November 30 to look for ways to mitigate the effects of climate change, an unusually strong northeast monsoon hit southern India for the third time in a month. The heavy spells of rain have affected standing crops of pulses, turmeric, onion, chilli, coriander and banana over thousands of hectares in the region. This is the seventh consecutive crop failure that most parts of the country have faced due to unforeseen weather events. Earlier this year, unseasonal rains and hailstorm had hit at least 15 states that produce over 80 per cent of the country’s foodgrains. And every time such a disaster hits the country, it pushes farmers into further distress, and ultimately forces them to commit suicide.

Such growing agrarian crisis due to climate change prompted Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment (cse) to look for ways to protect the country’s farmers, who are mostly small-scale and marginal. On November 27 and 28, it held a national-level consultation with farmers, policymakers and activists, who suggested that the government must urgently address the growing grievance of farmers by introducing scientific ways of estimating crop loss and by providing universal crop insurance to small and marginal farmers.

Rely on science, not word of mouth

Crop loss assessment is the first step to offer any kind of relief to affected farmers. “But the existing method in the country is primitive and crude,” says Yogendra Yadav of Jai Kisan Andolan, a farmers’ rights movement. The government assigns the duty to a patwari or lekhpal (lowest-rung government official of the land revenue department) who has no knowledge of crops nor 14 DOWN TO EARTH

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AGRICULTURE

do they follow scientific techniques for assessing crop loss. Besides, on an average, a patwari has to assess 5,000-10,000 hectares. With multiple landholdings, ownerships and crop patterns, this would take over a month to physically verify the land and ascertain the damage. Since a patwari has to assess crop loss within two to seven days, in most cases, their assessment is based on guess work or information from friends.

Devindra Pal Singh, tehsildar, department of revenue, Uttar Pradesh, says computerisation of land records can ease some of their burden.

Remote sensing and technologies like global positioning system (gps) and geographic information system (gis) can significantly improve the accuracy of crop loss assessment, says J S Parihar, former deputy director of the Indian Space Research Organisation. But for this, the government must first computerise land records and data related to sown crops, and develop a colour index for different stages of plant growth, Parihar says. He adds that India has the capacity to increase the number of highresolution satellites that can precisely monitor large swathes of farmland.

However, for accurate crop-loss assessment, experts suggest developing a method based on crowd sourcing. Farmers can use smartphones to upload photographs of their damaged fields, which will not only provide an idea of crop loss but also geographical location of the field and details of the farmer.

Provide rightful relief The government should improve its relief and compensation policy, which at present is non-existent or only on paper, says Yadav.

In case of a natural calamity, state governments distribute 10 per cent of their disaster relief funds among the affected farmers. More often than not, they receive only a sum of `20-100. There is no clarity over how the relief amount is decided. Criticising the arbitrary nature of the policy, T N Prakash of the Karnataka Agriculture Price Commission, says the government should link relief money with the minimum support price of the damaged crop. “This should be disbursed on an urgent basis so that the farmer can use it to grow the next crop,” he says.

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"The government should introduce universal crop insurance for all farmers and bear the insurance premium amount for marginal farmers" Ð Yogendra Yadav, activist, Jai Kisan Andolan

"The patwaris are overburdened.

Computerisation of land records can ease some of their burden and help avoid errors " Ð Devindra Pal Singh, tehsildar,Uttar Pradesh

"Remote sensing, GPS and GIS can be integrated to significantly improve the accuracy of crop loss assessment" Ð J S Parihar, former deputy director, Indian Space Research Organisation

"The government should link the relief money with the minimum support price of the damaged crop. This should be disbursed urgently" Ð T N Prakash, Karnataka Agriculture Price Commission

While crop insurance should offer safety net to the farmer, it is often twisted in favour of banks and insurance companies.

Banks act as agents to insurance companies and cleverly insure the crop loan amount. As a result, when a farmer claims insurance, the bank first deducts the loan amount from the insurance money and disburses the rest.

Experts present at the consultation programme thus suggest delinking crop insurance from bank loan.

They also recommend that the government should introduce universal crop insurance for all farmers. “The first tier of insurance should be meant for marginal farmers in which the government should bear the total actuarial premium. The second tier of insurance should be made voluntary for small and big land holders, in which both the government and the farmer should share the premium,” Yadav suggests.

Crop loss and insurance compensation should be made justifiable to make it lucrative. For instance, suggests V M Singh of Rashtriya Kisan Mazdoor Sangathan, in extreme weather conditions, banks should waive off a sizeable loan amount, instead of deducting loan amount from insurance money. Experts also suggest introducing weather-based insurance schemes instead of crop-based insurance. To protect the interest of tenant farmers, they suggest introducing legislation on the line of Andhra Pradesh’s Licensed Cultivators Act, under which all tenant farmers in the state are given identity cards so that they can avail relief and compensation in case of crop loss.

On the occasion, cse released a report “Lived Anomaly”, describing how to enable Indian farmers to cope with extreme weather events. (For more on the report, log on to www.downtoearth.org.in) n www.downtoearth.org.in 15

08/12/15 3:35 PM

VIKAS CHOUDHARY / CSE

Paddy puzzle

While the air quality in Delhi and adjoining areas continues to deteriorate because of unchecked paddy straw burning in Punjab and Haryana, two initiatives in Punjab are trying to solve the problem ARUNA KUMARANKANDATH | fazilka , punjab

T

HINK PUNJAB and most of us are likely to imagine clear blue sky and lush green fields. Some might say the imagination is exaggerated, thanks to Bollywood, but it is safe to assume that no one will associate the state with thick black smog and burnt down barren fields.

But that is how the state looks every winter.

The reason for the poor air quality is the burning of paddy stubble by farmers in the state. This practice comes in handy for farmers as they prepare their fields for sowing rabi (winter) crops. However, the thick smoke which emanates as a result of setting 16 DOWN TO EARTH

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fields on fire poses serious health hazards for people. The burning of fields also affects the quality of soil, robbing it of vital nutrients.

The smoke contains toxic chemicals that can cause respiratory and other ailments.

The state produces 17-18 million tonnes of paddy straw every year. The practice of burning paddy straw continues unchecked despite the Punjab government imposing a ban on burning them on October 22, 2013.

The situation is so bad this year that the Punjab and Haryana High Court on November 27 issued notices to the chief secretaries of Punjab and Haryana, seeking

their response on why contempt proceedings should not be initiated against them for their failure to implement the high court order on curbing burning of paddy straw. The replies have to be filed on January 21, 2016.

The impact this year can be clearly seen in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (nasa) satellite images, which show that the smoke emanating as a result of paddy burning is seen moving in the southeast direction towards Delhi, leaving behind a smog cover over the region.

In 2013, the state government had said it will provide farm machines at subsided

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POLLUTION

rates to remove the straws. And while the Punjab Pollution Control Board (ppcb) says it has already spent `5.20 crore on subsidies between 2014 and 2015 to popularise the use of machines such as rotavator, chopper and baler, farmers say they are clueless about the scheme.

“Even we don’t like burning the fields, but unfortunately, it is the quickest and cheapest way of getting rid of the straw,” says Joginder Singh, a farmer from Punjab’s Fazilka district. Lakhinder Singh, another farmer from Fazilka, says, “Small farmers do not have the farm equipment to remove the paddy straw. They have to rent it from large farmers or cooperatives who charge `600 per hour for the equipment.” He adds that their availability is also problematic.

“Equipment such as rotavators that cuts, pulverizes, mixes and levels the soil are not even available in our district,” says Lakhinder Singh.

Raju Narang, manager with Sampurn Agri Ventures, a company that is innovating to stop farmers from burning paddy, says he has been seeing fields being burnt since he was a little kid. “Most farmers in the area are not owners of the land they till. For them, tilling paddy straw back to the soil is a tedious process that involves running the machines through the farms around five times, which involves both money and time.

That is the reason they prefer burning the fields since it is an easier solution to their woes.” Additionally, straws have no commercial value and take a long time to decompose in the soil.

Turning waste into wealth While the situation continues to be problematic, biomass manufacturer Dee Development Engineers Limited (ddel) seems to have found a localised solution.

The company is using paddy straw to fuel its 8 MW biomass plant in Fazilka. The company has farm machines that it employs on the fields of farmers for free and then collects the straw. Seeing the success, ddel is now using paddy straw in its plant of 7.5 MW capacity in Muktsar district of Punjab.

Ratan Goel, manager of the ddel plant in Fazilka, says while they have been using paddy straw as a fuel for the past four years, 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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there is a problem. “The calorific value of rice straw is low. As a result, it can generate a maximum temperature of 2,700oC to 3,000oC. But to produce electricity, the temperature needs to be at least 3,200oC.” So the straws have to be supplemented with the husk of mustard and cotton, and other kinds of residues to generate power. Goel says this mixing of different fuel sources is possible only in places that grow different crops. “In areas like Jalandhar and Ludhiana, where the only source available for a biomass plant is paddy straw, the power plant might not be able to operate,” he adds.

Another initiative can be seen in the south-west part of Punjab that faces acute waterlogging issues after rains. According

Ventures Private Ltd has converted the wet wasteland into Veniamin shrimp farms. The shrimps consume calcium from the water and make it soft. The water quality also gets enhanced with the nitrogen-rich excreta of the shrimp. This water is then transported to the Sampurn Agri Ventures’ 1 MW biogas plant that was set up in April 2015 and used for composting the paddy straw that is sourced from farmlands in nearby villages.

The biogas generated through composting is used to produce electricity that is fed into the grid. The compost generated in the process is also an excellent bio-fertiliser that improves productivity and yield.

“Paddy straw compost is rich in soluble silica which is important for plant growth. It ARUNA K / CSE

Sampurn Agri Ventures converts water-logged fields into shrimp farms and uses the water enriched with shrimp excreta for composting paddy straw at its biogas plant in Muktsar

to a report by the erstwhile Planning Commission, the reasons for waterlogging in the area are “seepage from unlined earthen canals system, inadequate provision of surface and subsurface drainage, poor water management practices, insufficient water supplies and use of poor quality groundwater for irrigation”. As a result, the region has over 141,640 hectares of farmland that face severe waterlogging every year. In one village, Sikhwala, where not a single crop has been sown in the past 15 years, an agriculture company has found a way to deal not only with waterlogging, but also the paddy straw in the region.

Muktsar district-based Sampurn Agri

also has excellent water retention capacity hence leads to 40 per cent water saving in agriculture,” says Sanjeev Nagpal, managing director of Sampurn Agri Ventures. The company pays farmers `110 per quintal of paddy straw and sells the bio-fertiliser at `10 per kg. “This project is a combination of different activities which works together to develop end-to-end solution for the overall development,” he says.

These initiatives show that a sustainable solution to the paddy burning problem is possible. Along with promoting farm machines, Punjab and Haryana governments should try to replicate similar initiatives across the states.  www.downtoearth.org.in 17

07/12/15 2:55 PM

C O N S E R VAT I O N

Meghalaya springs back As the hill state enters dry months, a government initiative to revive 70,000 dying springs instils hope in its waterscarce villages KARNIKA BAHUGUNA | shillong

The nearly dead Wah Shari Spring has given rise to a pool just in six months

F

OR DECADES the

residents of Khliehshnong village in Meghalaya struggled for a regular supply of water during the dry months of November-April, despite getting abundant rainfall and being surrounded by six springs.

The springs would remain dry. “In the absence of adequate facilities to extract groundwater in the hills, we would buy water from tankers to meet daily needs,” says Phosterwell Tariang, the village head.

One of the six springs, Wah Shari, trickled about five litres of water a minute in March, which was hardly sufficient to cater to the drinking water needs of the 1,000 households in Khliehshnong, let alone meet their irrigation demand. But

by July, Wah Shari was spewing 492 litres of water a minute and had created a pool around it. Its discharge increased to 588 litres a minute by the end of November. The residents now get pure spring water for free.

This remarkable turnaround has been

made possible by the Meghalaya Basin Development Authority (mbda)—the only authority in the Northeast to protect groundwater, springs and rivers—which revived Wah Shari as a pilot project under its Spring Protection Initiative.

Since 2014, Spring Protection Initiative has been trying to revive the hill state’s 70,000 perennial springs that had for generations provided drinking water to nearly all the 6,800 villages and fed several rivers in the Brahmaputra and Barak basins.

But over the past few decades, they have dried up or become seasonal as largescale deforestation, rampant mining and developmental activities have either silted them or destroyed their catchment areas.

“Meghalaya is the only state that is so much dependent on springs. But nobody has cared for them,” says Aiban Swer, director of mbda.

As part of the revival process, mbda is preparing an online atlas that will carry details of all the springs in the state, includKARNIKA BAHUGUNA/CSE

18-19Conservation.indd 18

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C O N S E R VAT I O N

ing their names, gps locations and quantity and quality of water they release. This will help understand the extent of deterioration and the kind of intervention these springs require. “So far, we have mapped 1,000 springs across 11 districts,” says L Shabong, an mbda official. “It indicates a drastic reduction in the volume of water these springs release. Water quality of 20-35 per cent of the springs has deteriorated to the extent that it is unfit for human consumption,” he adds.

While reviving these springs to the pure and crystal stage seems a herculean task, the success story of Wah Shari offers hope.

Steps towards revival Recharging groundwater helps improve spring discharge, but the water becomes potable only after filtration Saplings to check soil Trenches to reduce flow of erosion surface run-off

Storage tank Sand and gravel

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Brick and cement layer

Aquifers

Recharge, filter and collect The main challenge in reviving Wah Shari spring was recharging its aquifer on the hill slope. For this, mbda roped in the state’s Soil and Water Conservation Department and the village community to dig trenches along the hill slope that acts as the catchment area of the spring. These trenches, usually 0.6 metre wide and 0.45 metre deep, helped check water runoff and soil erosion. Saplings were planted in each trench to further tackle soil erosion. Within four months, water discharge from the spring increased by 100 times, creating a pool around it.

To purify the water, an indigenous filter has been constructed within the pool (see illustration). The filtered water now gets collected in a tank, nearby the pool, which supplies water to households in nearby villages and three boarding schools. Officials have fenced off the catchment area of the spring to prevent contamination by humans and animals. They are also sensitising the village residents not to damage or pollute the catchment area.

Since most springs are privately owned, the state is planning a social survey to find out ownership of springs, the number of families dependent on them and ways to engage communities in catchment protection.

To make the initiative a success, the government has set aside funds from the State Action Plan on Climate Change. The World Bank has also promised to extend its support to the initiative. mbda has created a cadre of 300 master trainers by roping in volunteers from schools and colleges. They will visit com-

Filtered water

Water filter

Outlet pipe TARIQUE AZIZ/CSE

munities and train the youths in mapping the springs. Called para-hydrologists, they will monitor the springs and collect the data, says Shabong. Communities are being encouraged to create nurseries in the springshed area. So far, people have set up 65 nurseries for planting in spring-shed areas. mbda officials say mapping and revival of springs will take at least six years.

A cue from Sikkim The idea of reviving springs to ensure water availability in dry months is not new. It was first launched in 2008 by the hill state of Sikkim, where about 80 per cent of the households depend on springs for drinking water and irrigation. The initiative, named Dhara Vikas, was implemented by the Rural Management and Development Department and aimed at reviving the catchment areas of 50 Himalayan springs and four lakes in drought-prone areas of the state. These springs were drying up or turning seasonal as population rise, erratic rainfall and developmental activities reduced the sponge action of the land and consequently created a hydrological imbalance. The government claims that at least 400 hectares have been revived under the initiative with a total investment of `250 lakh. This has resulted in an annual groundwater recharge of 900 million litres. The spring discharge has improved by 15 per cent, notes an assessment by the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, in 2013.

However, some experts say the initiative will take more time to show significant results considering that the state is still in the initial stage of mapping its springs.

Needed a variable plan The indigenous water filter designed by mbda may not work for all springs as the contamination varies from place to place. For instance, aquifers in the Jaintia Hills have turned acidic due to rampant rat-hole mining in the region till it was banned recently.

Springs from these aquifers would require separate treatment from those contaminated by organic pollutants.

The government should install limestone filters for treating acidic water and artificial wetlands for natural purification of spring water, suggests O P Singh, head of the Department of Environmental Studies, North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong.

The government can also install cascade type check dams to improve storage and percolation of groundwater, he suggests.

Sonali Saha, visiting faculty at St Anthony’s College in Shillong who trains students on conservation of freshwater ecosystem, says sensitising students, communities and other government agencies about water quality, quantity and ecosystem services is an important step to ensure that the springs remain free-flowing.

The government should pay close attention to these suggestions if it wants to avert water crisis for ever. n www.downtoearth.org.in 19

07/12/15 5:13 PM

NEW

BUSINESS

Manish Anand of Mithila Consumer Goods Pvt Ltd says his company plans to directly enter the retail market with makhana because of the high demand

PHOTOGRAPH: SRIKANT CHAUDHARY/ CSE

Nuts about M makhana

Y STOCK of 950 makhana (fox nut)

Health-conscious people are driving the demand for a lesser known fasting food KARNIKA BAHUGUNA | new delhi

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20-21New Business.indd 20

packets got sold in less than three days,” says Manish Anand, one of the participants at the recently concluded Organic Food Fair at Dilli Haat in Delhi. The director of Mithila Consumer Goods Pvt Ltd, which manufacturers and exports organic food products, says there has been a recent surge in the demand for makhanas among people. He claims that makhana sales of his company is rising at a rate of 10-15 per cent annually for the past couple of years. The company sold 20,000 kg of makhana in 2014.

“Though traditionally eaten during a religious fast, especially by communities in Bihar, makhanas are now relished by people from across the country and even abroad,” says Anand, who exports makhanas to countries as far as Austria and Norway.

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NEW

HEALTHY SNACK Health-conscious people are opting for makhanas

L2,000 cr per year is the market size of makhana

L20,000 cr is the potential size of the market per annum

BUSINESS

30,000

tonnes is produced in Bihar every year

At least 17

countries where people relish makhanas Source: As told by manufacturers

Manufacturers say the recent surge in demand has been driven by health-conscious people, and that they are innovating to make the health-snack more appealing. Anand, for example, sells different-flavoured makhanas—plain, salted, and roasted makhana powder.

Bihar-based Shakti Sudha Agro Ventures, which has been in the makhana business for more than a decade, decided to launch the world’s first website exclusively to sell makhana products last year. And the experiment, says owner Satyajit Kumar Singh, has paid off. “We launched www.gorgonnut. com in September 2014. Today, our makhana products are selling in 17 countries where we have over 1,200 customers,” says Singh. We have sold makhana products worth `75 lakh through our website in the past one year. The annual turnover of Shakti Sudha Agro Ventures grew by 100 per cent in the last three years to `50 crore in 2014-15. Singh says the decision to go online made him realise that the product is equally popular with people outside Bihar.

The nut is primarily cultivated in ponds in Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha and Assam. Since they face the risk of encroachment and pollution, companies like Mithila Consumer Goods are also taking steps to protect the ponds.

Small wonder, many health-conscious people are now consuming makhana as a snack. “My family regularly consumes makhana and milk for breakfast. I prefer it over dry fruits because it is lighter. We also use it in delicacies such as kheer,” says Prema Tiwari, a housewife in Delhi.

Manufactures are processing makhana in ways that are convenient and tasty. For example, Mithila Consumer Goods sells

Healthy and tasty

air-fried makhana under its brand Pure n Natural. Anand says, “Our Pure n Natural product line also has a pre-mix makhana powder that can be used in place of health drinks like Bournvita and Horlicks. We sell it at `80 for 50 g.” Shakti Sudha has pre-mix makhana kheer packets that sell for ` 225 per 500 g.

In fact, almost all major online stores, including Amazon and The Fruit Basket, are selling innovative products such as makhana baked with jalapenos.

Celebrity chef Sanjeev Kapoor says makhanas are a great snack option as “they have negligible fat”. Hundred grammes (g) of makhana has 350 kcal of energy, 9.7 g of protein, 77 g of carbohydrate and just 0.1 g of fat. “It is rich in antioxidants and helps treat several health conditions, including palpitation and insomnia. In Ayurveda, it is considered to help relieve gastritis,” says Kapoor. Makhana is also rich in iron, phosphorus and calcium.

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Market potential Manufactures say the growing popularity of makhana in the international market has opened new vistas. While the current size of the domestic market for makhana is `2,000 crore, Singh says it has a potential of at least `20,000 crore per annum.

Seeing the demand, multinationals are now entering the market. “In September 2015, Bennett Coleman & Co Ltd bought 10 per cent stake in Shakti Sudha through its department Brand Capital,” says Singh. He adds that Brand Capital will provide branding and advertisement support to the company, which plans to foray into the retail market in 50 cities in the country from January 2016.

A senior official in Brand Capital confirms the news. “We see huge headroom for growth in terms of consumption of makhana which prompted us to invest. We plan to take this nut from the farmer to the end consumer,” he says.

Shakti Sudha is also trying to cement its foreign presence by ensuring international deliveries within 100 hours. “We have tied up with Fedex, dhl and India Post for shipping our products on time,” says Singh. The company plans to clock sales of `100 crore in the current financial year.

Mithila Consumer Goods is also planning to directly enter the retail market soon. The company, which is currently operating primarily through wholesalers and exporters, says they are right now studying the market. “The recent demand has made one thing clear that makhana could be India’s homegrown reply to junk food if it is packaged and marketed properly,” says Anand.

Singh sums up by saying that his ultimate goal is to make makhana as popular as California Almond.  www.downtoearth.org.in 21

07/12/15 2:53 PM

OBITUARY

THE FLAME OF FOREST RAGES ON

A bureaucrat-turned-activist who saw governance through the eyes of the tribals R I C H A R D M A H A PAT R A

I

ment for this magazine in September 1997. When travelling across the tribal district of Jhabua in Madhya Pradesh to report on a watershed development project, everybody from the district collector to a tribal head of a remote village asked me: do you know Sharmaji? Soon I realised I must know Sharmaji if I wanted to understand tribal affairs in the country.

Nearly a month after returning from Jhabua, I got the chance to meet him at the side event of a conference in Delhi. Since then, Sharmaji had been a source of knowledge that sharpened my reportage and brought perspective to my and this magazine’s readers’ understanding of tribal affairs.

Sharmaji, a former district collector of undivided Bastar and by far the most authoritative voice on tribal governance in the country, died on December 6 at the age of 84. He quit the Indian Administrative Service in 1981 because of disagreement with government on several policy issues involving tribal communities. However, as he took on active advocacy for selfrule for tribal population, he was accepted back by various governments as an adviser.

What made Sharmaji a powerful voice was his vast experience on the ground as a bureaucrat and wide engagement with tribal and civil society groups over three decades. Often this unique combination of experiences helped governments to roll out crucial laws, like the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, 1996 (pesa). Since the enacting of pesa, he took up campaigns and active engagement with governments to implement the law in letter and spirit. He travelled across the country’s tribal areas with translated copies of pesa and explained to local communities its importance. His one-point agenda was to revive the village republics of yore. “The tribal people are the most democratic people on earth,” he would argue. In recent times he was disappointed that states did not even issue the guidelines to implement pesa. Not somebody to concede defeat so easily, he would not stop at uttering a few words of disappointment, but take the pen and write a letter to the prime minister or the President to push for their intervention.

In his lifetime, he witnessed a new generation of social activists coming to the fore. Though very shy to hog the limelight, he would never miss an opportunity to interact and engage with the new generation of tribal activists. Many of the activists disagreed with him. “At least we are still debating the tribal governance issue” was his standard line to end a heated discus-

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B D Sharma 193 1-2 0 1 5

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FIRST HEARD about B D Sharma while doing my first assign-

sion. “Even during the British Raj, tribal areas were termed ‘excluded areas’, with their own institutions and power over local resources. Independent India has become worse,” he once said.

I never approached him to get a comment for a story. It was always to seek his definitive guidance in understanding a situation. The only formal interview I had with him was in 2012 when he negotiated the release of a collector abducted

by Maoists in Chhattisgarh. “Kya sawal karenge? (What are you going to ask?)” he asked me. My last formal question to him: “You are often asked what has changed in Bastar since you quit the job of a collector. What has not changed?” His last formal answer to me: “The tribals’ own design of development. They still lead a life based on their natural resources. In the Gondi language there is no future tense. This is because they have plenty of resources around: land, forests and water.” We will remember this Sharmaji; sure you will not rest in peace till we realise this.  16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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WHY THIS ABANDONED VILLAGE COVER

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is a threat to Uttarakhand

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More people in Uttarakhand are abandoning their villages than before despite high economic growth. Nine per cent of the villages in the state have a population of less than 10. Those left behind are finding it difficult to continue farming without community support. This, in turn, is fuelling more migrations. Shreeshan Venkatesh travels to Uttarakhand to find out how this is affecting Uttarakhand, a predominantly agrarian state www.downtoearth.org.in 25

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A

political storm is brewing in Uttarakhand.

And as is the case with most political storms, at its centre is a long-standing socio-economic issue: migration. But unlike the inter-state migration witnessed in the Garhwal region in the second half of the 20th century, migration now is intra-state­ —from rural areas in hilly districts to urban centres in the plains.

In the past two months, Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat has publicly spoken on the need to arrest migration at least four times.

Protest marches have been held, public seminars organised and a bill drafted to stop the hills of Uttarakhand from losing their inhabitants. All indicators point to the making of the biggest sociopolitical movement in the state since the agitation for separate statehood in the 1990s. The severity of the situation can be gauged from the fact that 9 per cent of the villages of the state are virtually uninhabited. As per Census 2011, of Uttarakhand’s 16,793 villages, 1,053 have no inhabitants and another 405 have a population of less than 10. The number of such ghost villages has reportedly risen particularly after the earthquake and flash floods of 2013. Recent media reports put the number at 3,500.

Take the case of Saniyar, a set of twin villages nestled in the hills, 20 km from Pauri district headquarters. The villages are completely deserted. According to residents from a nearby village, it has been about six years since Saniyar’s residents abandoned it. Trees and undergrowth have swallowed both the villages as well as the clearing in the forest that once served as their access paths. The few houses that occupy the space that is supposed to be Saniyar are all locked.

Bitgaon, located half-a-kilometre from Saniyar, is a livelier village. But it is not half as lively as it was a decade ago when it had 150 homes and a population of 500, says resident Puran Singh, a sexagenarian farmer. “Just like Saniyar, the exodus in Bitgaon too started in 2000s. The population has now come down to 175,” he says.

Migration is not new to Uttarakhand. It reached a peak in the 1980s and fuelled the demand for a separate state, which everyone hoped would lead to economic growth and check migration. But census data and other recent reports show that the rate of migration from the hilly areas of the state has increased after it was formed in 2000. Only the destination of migrants has changed and the phenomenon has

turned into a self-propagating cycle. Experts say that migration leads to abandonment of villages which causes degradation of land, makes villages unlivable, and further fuels migration. In fact, the migration to cities has been in such great numbers that Uttarakhand has recorded the highest increase in the share of urban population in any of the Himalayan states of the country while its rural decadal growth rate is the lowest (see ‘Vicious cycle’ on p29).

“The issue is of overall growth of the state.

There are people who say there is nothing wrong in our farmers leaving the hills to find better opportunities. But instead of asking what is wrong in migration, we should ask why is there still a need to migrate,” says environmentalist Anil Joshi, who recently undertook a 20-day march across

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Uttarakhand as part of the Gaon Bachao Andolan (“save village movement”) to address the issue of migration from villages.

Lopsided growth Uttarakhand has witnessed a high rate of economic growth since its formation. But despite nine of the 13 districts in the state being situated in the hills, the lion’s share of this increased revenue has been received by districts that lie in the plains of the state. The state government’s Annual Plan 2013-14 shows that the per capita income in the villages is much lower than in the plains. According to the state’s Directorate of Economics and Statistics, only one of the hill districts has an average per capita income higher than the state average while the three districts in

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the plains occupy the first three positions. And since economic prosperity has largely been limited to the three districts in the plains, the hills are contributing the most to the migrant labour force.

Talking to Down To Earth, the Speaker of Uttarakhand’s Legislative Assembly, Govind Singh Kunjwal, who has been involved in efforts to check migration, said that lopsided development, rather than a complete lack of development, is to blame for the failure in stemming the outflow.

According to a survey sponsored by the National Institute of Rural Development, about 88 per cent of the households in the 18 sample villages in Pauri Garhwal and Almora districts had at least one member migrating for employment. The survey also found that about 90 per cent of the migrants from the two districts are long-term migrants

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Bimla Devi and Pushpa Devi are the only women left in Bandul village near Pauri.

The total population of the village is 11

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Bitgaon village near Pauri once had a population of around 500.

The number is now down to 175

STORY

(who stay away from home for over one year).

The other major reason is lack of healthcare facilities. This is as true today as it was before the formation of the state. The healthcare centres that have opened are blighted by a severe lack of medical professionals and serve, more often than not, as referral centres to hospitals in cities such as Dehradun and Nainital. With much of the young and able-bodied youth having migrated, it is the elderly who have to live with shoddy healthcare facilities. And they too want to move out.

“My son has shifted to Gurgaon where he earns about R7,000 a month. I have begun having health troubles but there are no medical centres nearby.

Given the chance, I would move to a town,” says 65-year-old Bimla Devi, who is one of the only 11 people that populate Bandul, a village near Pauri.

Improved connectivity, education To its credit, the state government has greatly improved connectivity to villages in the hills.

Of the 5,852 km of roads that have been built between 2010-11 and 2014-15, almost 4,000 km have been built in rural areas. Access to primary education has also improved significantly, with all hill districts having at least one primary school for every two villages, as per the Union District Information System for Education (u-dise) 201314. But similar growth is not visible in the number of high schools in hilly areas. This means that most villages have a de facto urban dependency if they want a good education. And, ironically, the 28 DOWN TO EARTH

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increase in the rate of migration in Uttarakhand can, in part, be attributed to the developmental achievements of the state. As people attain education, they seldom find suitable employment in the hills and have little or no skills, or interest, in persisting with agriculture. Even for those who stay behind, it is a matter of compulsion rather than choice. “We wish somebody could find us an accommodation in the plains. Farming has stopped completely and it is only a matter of time before everyone moves away,” says 63-year-old Pushpa Devi, Bimla Devi’s sister-in-law.

For outsiders, particularly people from the cities, the hills are a symbol of solitude and peace and the phenomenon of migration simplistically linear, often interpreted as simple village residents deserting their heavenly abodes for crowded and polluted cities. The view from inside is quite different and far more pertinent. “What outsiders fail to see is that villages are communities and work only as communities. If even a third of the village is gone, it becomes difficult for the rest to stay back and put the pieces back together,” says Pushpa Devi. This is more true of agriculture than anything else because active farm plots interspersed with inactive ones are difficult to manage .

Barren landholdings Landholdings in Uttarakhand are typically small and segmented. According to the Watershed Management Directorate of the Uttarakhand 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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60% 50%

Vicious

of village population depends on agriculture

cycle

25%

Fall in decadal population growth in almost all hill districts between 2001 and 2011

The current exodus from the hills of Uttarakhand to its plains is a result of various factors arising out of the previous waves of migration. The phenomenon has become self-propagating

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Unplanned Decline in land under urbanisation, especially cultivation; barren land in the plains interspersed with cropland

Inadequate education and health facilities and absence of employment alternatives to farming

Economic progress concentrated in the plains; widening income gap between the plains and the hills

Ten of Uttarakhand's 13 districts have seen a decline in decadal population growth rates

1

Almora Population 622,506 Change in decadal % growth rate*

135 8

Uttarkashi Population 330,086 Change in decadal % growth rate*

48.46

7

The rate of migration has been much higher in the nine hill districts and is rising rapidly.

Population in Pauri Garhwal and Almora districts has declined.

Between 2001 and 2011, the districts registered decadal population growth rates of -1.41 per cent and -1.28 per cent respectively

ES 10

pt Increased human-wildlife ion conflict Agriculture untenable in partially migrated villages Urbanisation increasing vulnerability to natural disasters Increased water stress due to concentrated consumption in the plains

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Previous waves of migration and ecological disruptions caused by the outflow have fuelled further migration

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Decline in production of foodgrain in hill districts

Migration from rural Uttarakhand (mostly hills) to urban areas (mostly plains) in the state and rest of the country

8 4

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Minimum rise in population in all four plain districts in 2001-2011

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U T TA R A K H A N D

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2

3

4

5

6

7

Bageshwar

Chamoli

Rudraprayag

Pauri Garhwal

Tehri Garhwal

Pithoragarh

259,898

391,605

242,285

687,271

618,931

483,439

55%

58.6%

51.37%

136%

85.5%

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10

11

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9

Nainital

Haridwar

Dehradun

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259,648

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1,696,694

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11.1%

23.2%

6.7%

29.32%

0.4%

Source: Census 2011; Statistical Diary 2013-14, Uttarakhand state government; * Change in decadal growth rate between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011

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In Uttarakhand, when people migrate, their lands quickly turn barren because weeds and shrubs take root and are difficult to clear

government, the average landholding in the state is about 0.68 ha, which is divided into several patches. This is much smaller than the national average of 1.16 ha per farmer. This means villages that have witnessed migration in the recent past now have to deal with several plots of untended land interspersed with active farmland. Untended land turns barren or is covered with by resilient weeds and shrubs (such as Lantana and Parthenium) that are very difficult to clear. Moreover, such land is being increasingly managed by immigrants from Nepal. “Owners prefer leasing out their land to Nepalese labourers instead of people from their own village. This gives them a sense of security that the land cannot be usurped,” points out Ajay Joshi, a farmer from Munsiari in Pithoragarh district. For instance, Arjun Singh, a former labourer from Nepal has leased about 0.4 ha close to Pauri town at R10,000 per year where he has been farming for the past three years. “We used to be seasonal labourers, but as pieces of land started being vacated, many of us stayed to continue farming on leased lands from those who had left,” he says.

A report by the Sashastra Seema Bal, a paramilitary force that guards India’s borders, in 30 DOWN TO EARTH

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October claimed that 128 families from Nepal have procured documents that prove both Indian and Nepali citizenships.

Such factors have caused a perceptible decline in agriculture, which is still the backbone of the rural economy and employs more than 60 per cent of the population of Uttarakhand. According to the Union Ministry of Agriculture, the net sown in area in the state has declined by around 10 per cent, from 769,944 ha in 2000-01 to 701,030 ha in 2013-14.

Experts cite another reason for the decline of farming in the state—extremely effective implementation of welfare schemes like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (mgnrega). “Farming in Uttarakhand has traditionally been sustenance agriculture. But now farmers work under mgnrega and use the money to buy food which is available at very low costs after the enforcement of the Food Security Act. Farmers now see agriculture as an activity not worth the effort,” says Prakash Mohan Chandola, president of non-profit Bharatiya Gramotthan Sanstha, which works for rural development in Uttarakhand.

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settlements in search of food. Camouflaged by the wild vegetation that has infested vacant farmlands, leopard can easily reach habitations without being sighted and their attacks have become far more frequent in recent years. According to Management of Human Wildlife Interactions and Invasive Alien Species in India 2015, a report published by Wildlife Institute of India (wii), Dehradun, the problem of leopard-human conflict has become chronic in Uttarakhand while in other parts of the country it has reduced. On an average, 50 people are killed every year by leopards in the state, says the report.

Depleting water table

person who has been supporting himself solely through social welfare schemes. “I have sent both my children to Pauri to stay with my sister and study. Here, I can easily manage without working in the farms. I make R7,500 for 50 days of work in a year on mgnrega projects and can procure rice, wheat and coarse grains at R3 and R 2 and R1 per kg,” he says.

Leopards on the prowl Tracts of untended land have given birth to another problem­ : increased human-animal conflicts. This has further fuelled migration.

Barren land in Uttarakhand is different from barren land elsewhere because shrubbery quickly takes root. “With the decline in population in villages, we have seen a marked rise in incidences of conflict with wild animals. Populations of wild boars and monkeys too have increased and have made farming difficult. They damage practically everything that is grown,” says Virendra Singh, a farmer in Chamoli district.

The far more feared conflict is the one with leopard. As farming and the number of livestock in the hills have reduced, leopards have started descending the slopes and wandering into human 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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A depletion in the water table of the state is also possibly linked to migration. Although there has been no official study on the correlation between the drying up of water sources and migration, it is interesting to note that the three districts that have registered the highest migration rates are also the districts that have witnessed maximum depletion in water sources. “Earlier, there was no shortage of water but of late there has been a seasonal shortage even in drinking water, let alone water for irrigation. There are quite a few people who have left villages due to this,” says Sunil Singh, a village resident from Chaukutiya tehsil in Almora.

Agriculture in Uttarakhand is primarily rainfed, with irrigation capacity limited to the plains in the state. “Agriculture in the hills and mountains of the state is only possible due to the existence of springs and mountain streams. There is very little in terms of irrigation infrastructure in the higher altitudes. The streams and springs act as a lifeline,” explains Ravi Chopra, professor and water management expert at People’s Institute of Science in Dehradun. In recent years, there has been an unprecedented drying up of streams and springs which has created a water stress in several regions of the state.

According to P C Tiwari, professor of geography at Kumaun University, about 37 per cent of the natural springs that contribute to the Ganga river system are rapidly drying up.

“Perennial streams have now become rain-fed streams and several rain-fed streams have dried up. About eight per cent of the first order springs, which do not have any tributary, have dried up at a rate of about six-seven kilometres per year. Then there are also perennial springs that have become seasonal and this has impacted the availability of drinking water, water for sanitation and irrigation in many regions,” he says. www.downtoearth.org.in 31

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Tiwari’s observations have been corroborated by the Uttarakhand Jan Sansthan recordings.

According to a study of 500 sources of water over 11 districts of the state, over 70 per cent of the water sources had depleted by more than 75 per cent in the four districts of Pauri (almost 86 per cent), Almora (over 76 per cent), Tehri (over 75 per cent) and Pithoragarh (almost 71 per cent).

Course correction Policymakers believe addressing the decline in agriculture should be the first step towards checking migration because farming is the main occupation in the state. “Any issue that plagues the villages cannot be resolved without solving problems related to agriculture. The only reason Uttarkashi and our valley of Ravai have not witnessed the kind of migration seen in other hill districts is because farming is still popular among the youth,” says Vijaypal Rawat from Uttarkashi which saw a decadal population growth of 11.89 per cent between 2001 and 2011.

Though environmental factors have started playing a role, the issue of migration remains primarily socio-economic. The good news is that farmers are starting to realise that most of the concerns arising out of shrinking of villages can be tackled by banding together as against carrying on separately. The idea of cooperative farming is slowly gathering steam in rural Uttarakhand as a viable alternative to traditional individual farming. One such farm, Gauri Swayam Sahayata Samuha has 26 families collectively farming on about two ha of pooled land in Gaurikot village about seven kilometres from Pauri. Supported by a R5 lakh loan taken from A R Cooperative, the

group has invested in horticulture, fish farming, poultry farming and vermiculture. The collective makes use of new technologies like hand-held power tractors to increase efficiency in the farms.

“When Nepalese labourers and farmers can successfully run rented farms, why can’t we? And as for being a collective, it just made more sense.

One of the big problems here is the wildlife— leopards, pigs and monkeys. It can be hell if you have to stay up night after night to look over your crops but it becomes manageable if the responsibility is shared,” explains Anil Rawat, a former farm labourer and founder of the collective.

Janardhan Singh Rawat of Uligram panchayat narrates a similar story. Families in the village have started cultivating mandwa (a traditional foodgrain) and mushroom on a collective basis and have been reaping the benefits. “Everything from soil-related work to harvest is being done collectively in our village. We have been producing mandwa flour for the past year and today have a demand of about 45 tonnes. The effort has been so successful that even families who have migrated have begun asking that their fields, now gone barren, be included in the cooperative,” says Rawat.

In fact, even the government is supporting pilot projects incentivising cooperative farming.

In Marora, situated at an altitude of 1,3001,395 m, the government is experimenting with collective farming to reclaim land that has gone barren. Pooling together 8 ha held by 48 farmers, the government is encouraging plantation of horticultural crops such as pomegranate. “We have been providing tissue-cultured specimens of pomegranate to farmers at R45 per sapling which

Joy Hukil (extreme right) is one of the two shooters permitted to hunt man-eaters in Uttarakhand. Attacks by animals have made farming difficult in the hills and fuelled migration

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includes transportation and mulching sheets to reduce losses involved in traditional farming.

After harvest, the profits are shared on a per tree basis. As a result, though the land is held by 48 families, 80 families have benefitted in Marora.

Moreover, water management with the help of governmental irrigation schemes for pipe laying and lift-irrigation has improved due to sharing of resources,” says Naveen Singh Barphal, deputy project director, Integrated Livelihood Support Project division at the watershed management directorate in Pauri.

Although schemes have worked in improving the living conditions of village residents in a few areas, there is also a perception that the initiatives are inadequate because they are often misaligned with the needs of villages. “The lack of facilities and environmental burdens are driving migration because they contribute to an overwhelming sense of helplessness among farmers. There is a need to eliminate this helplessness. Unfortunately, most schemes are centralised and target-oriented, not need-oriented, and often provide support that the farmers don’t need,” says Akhilesh Dimri, senior project manager of Reliance Foundation, working at Jakol village in Uttarkashi.

Bill to arrest migration The state government has taken cognisance of the problem of migration. On October 6, it released a draft version of a land consolidation (chakbandi) bill to push for revitalisation of barren agricultural 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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land holdings in the hills by consolidating small and scattered holdings.

“The draft is a solid plan to arrest migration and encourage farming which is necessary in the state. We hope to use a carrot-and-stick policy to incentivise consent for consolidation,” says Anil Bahuguna, a veteran journalist and member of the drafting committee.

The government has invited suggestions from the public and will introduce it in the Assembly in January. According to a statement made by state agriculture minister Harish Rawat on October 6, a total of 200 villages have been identified to spread awareness about land consolidation.

“Chakbandi is our brightest hope to bring development to the hills and I hope it is implemented successfully,” says Ganesh Singh Garib, a noted social activist who has been the pioneering voice in the movement for land consolidation in Uttarakhand. Addressing a two-day seminar on migration, titled PalayanEk Chintan (“Rethinking migration”) in Pauri on October 25, Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly Speaker, Govind Singh Kunjwal, said the only way to tackle migration is by launching a popular movement similar to the one that resulted in statehood. The Speaker ended his speech by invoking a popular phrase of the statehood movement—Jal, Jungle, Zameen (“water, forest, land”). However, it is ironical that these are the three resources responsible for driving people away from the hills. n

STORY

Rekha Devi of Gaurikot village near Pauri tills her land using a hand-held tractor. She is part of a cooperative farming initiative in Uttarakhand

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ANALYSIS

Lurking in danger zone Wild animals are increasingly moving out of protected areas.

What should the government do to ensure their safety?

RAJESHWARI GANESAN | dehradun

K

AMAL AND Mohan Singh Rawat

lost R30,000 in one night. A herd of wild elephants entered their farms in Rampur village in Uttarakhand and ravaged the paddy crop that was ready for harvest. This is not the first time they have lost their crops to wild elephants. “I had no income last year too as elephants had damaged my crops,” rues Kamal Singh. Rampur falls in the Lansdowne Forest Division and is part of the elephant corridor between Rajaji and Corbett tiger reserves.

Residents of Teda village in neighbouring Nainital district are agitating against the tigers entering their village. The animal has not only killed livestock but also mauled to death two women in October.

Such incidents are growing across the country. One of the primary reasons for the increasing human-animal conflicts is the presence of a large number of animals and birds outside the notified protected areas (see ‘Protected but not safe’, p36). Wildlife 34 DOWN TO EARTH

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experts estimate that 29 per cent of the tigers in India are outside the protected areas. “If we take their number to be 2,200, the tigers outside the protected areas are about 640. This is almost twice the number of tigers found in Russia,” says a senior conservationist at the Wildlife Institute of India (wii), Dehradun.

The statistics are grim for other species too. According to a 2010 census of the Velavadar Blackbuck National Park (bnp) in Bhavnagar, Gujarat, 58 per cent of the blackbucks were reportedly found outside the national park. Forest departments in various states do not count the nilgais, wild boars and macaques outside the protected areas.

Marine turtles, on the other hand, do not even have a protected area where it is most needed. “The Olive Ridley sea turtle is accorded protection under Schedule-I of the Wildlife (Protection) Act. But one of its largest mass nesting sites on the banks of the Rushikulya river in Odisha is not a notified

protected area. We are talking of about 200,000 turtles nesting here every year,” says Bivash Pandav, a scientist who specialises in marine turtle conservation.

This does not mean India lacks in protected areas. As of October 2015, the country has 726 protected zones, including 103 national parks, 531 animal reserves, 26 community reserves and 66 conservation reserves, covering 4.88 per cent of the total area of the country. But is this enough to protect the vast wildlife population in our country? Does declaring an area “protected” guarantee the protection of all the species residing within or does it only save a few keynote species listed under Schedule-I.

Too small a habitat In India, the very idea of a protected area appears skewed. “The protected areas were historically meant to be the breeding grounds for animals raised in the wild for the purpose of hunting,” says S S Bist, emeritus scientist at wii. This space is not 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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THINKSTOCKPHOTOS

ANALYSIS

"The animals cannot be confined to `notified' areas. The protection needs to extend beyond the reserves and protected areas" Ð S S Bist, former director, Project Elephant

"Despite being rarer than the tigers, the Gangetic dolphins have only one sanctuary in the country, and can be hunted anywhere else along the course of the Ganga" Despite being accorded the highest level of protection under the Wildlife Protection Act, 1972, wild animals, such as the tiger, are under threat if they venture out of the protected areas

enough to have a full-fledged habitat for wild animals, he adds.

A former official of the National Tiger Conservation Authority (ntca) explains with an example. “A territorial animal like a male tiger needs an area of 60-100 sq km.

But the area allocated to an entire tiger reserve, like the Bor Tiger Reserve in Maharashtra, is 138.12 sq km. This is barely enough for one or two tigers,” he says.

Bist underlines a similar case for elephants. “The elephants need to travel at least 10-20 km a day. If a herd is restricted to an area of about 100 sq km, they are bound to move out in search of food and water.

Elephants are used to travelling long distances, most of which fall outside the protected areas,” he says.

In most cases, protected areas are marked in a haphazard manner, leaving out routes that animals use regularly for movement. A case in point is the Landsdowne Forest Division. It is the tiger corridor between Corbett and Rajaji tiger 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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reserves and is touted to have more than twice the number of tigers at the Rajaji National Park. However, it is not classified as a wildlife division but a territorial division, which leaves it strapped for funds.

While ntca allocated R5.8 crore to Corbett for 2015-16, it allotted only R2 crore annually to the Lansdowne Forest Division.

“A wildlife division is less prone to humananimal conflict as it has fewer human settlements, but it is not the case with a territorial division. While the tiger reserves have as many as three to four guards per beat, which can range from five to 20 km, we have only one guard per beat,” says N M Tripathi, Lansdowne divisional forest officer.

Aquatic species are not safe either. The Gangetic dolphin is the national aquatic animal of India and is found throughout the course of the Ganga. But only a 50-km stretch of the river, from Sultanganj to Kahalgaon in Bihar, is designated as a protected area, called the Vikramshila

Ð Qamar Qureshi, scientist, Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun

Gangetic Dolphin Sanctuary. “This means the Gangetic dolphin can be poached anywhere else along the banks. While we do not have a proper survey yet, going by estimates, this species is fewer in number than the tigers,” points out Qamar Qureshi who specialises in conservation biology and plans to conduct a dolphin census with a scientific approach.

Once an animal is out of its “safe” habitat, it becomes vulnerable to poaching.

“Of the 4,000-odd blackbucks, over 3,000 are found in the 100 sq km area outside the park. We have had many cases in the past where blackbucks were captured by poachers hiding in villages, who sometimes set bait,” says a senior official at bnp, requesting anonymity.

Many animals are also overlooked while demarcating protected areas. The wolf is increasingly losing its habitat as it does not find a place in the protected areas. “Wolves thrive on grasslands, which are either human-dominated or considered wasteland www.downtoearth.org.in 35

07/12/15 11:04 AM

ANALYSIS

and often diverted for commercial use,” points out Bilal Habib, a scientist who is conducting the first-of-its-kind wolf census in Maharashtra.

Lack of food in protected areas The condition of the existing protected areas is not very good, either. Wildlife experts claim that territorial animals do not have enough space within reserves and their prey do not have enough fodder to thrive on. This is forcing the wild animals to move out and venture close to human habitation in search of food. Many of these animals are accorded high protection under the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972. According to the National Institute of Disaster Management, the annual loss of farm produce due to intrusion of wild animals in Himachal Pradesh alone is worth R500 crore.

Krithi K Karanth, associate conservation scientist at the Wildlife Conservation Society, Bengaluru, surveyed 1,972 households in Karnataka in 2013. The survey shows that 91 per cent of the total crop damage in the state was due to wild animals.

This, experts note, is because of deficient fodder in protected areas.

“Increasing levels of non-palatable plants in forests lure herbivores to the villages on the fringe. It is but natural that animals ravage crops for food,” says P Aravindan, a wildlife biologist in Coimbatore. “We cannot say that elephants are destroying crops if we infringe on their territory. If we do so, we must be prepared to face the consequences,” he adds.

Adopt inclusive approach What needs to be considered by the wildlife authorities while taking steps to protect an animal is the fact that one cannot restrict the movement of animals and birds to stipulated areas. Moreover, a protected area, say for tigers or elephants, will have other wildlife too which need to be equally protected.

Wildlife experts warn that if wildlife protection is confined to reserves and parks alone, several species will stand at the brink of extinction. This is best exemplified by the Great Indian Bustard, which is a Schedule-I animal. Despite having sanctuaries to itself, the bird has been driven to the brink of extinction. “Various bustard sanctuaries had sizeable population once upon a time. But 36 DOWN TO EARTH

34-36Analysis.indd 36

Protected but not safe Many Schedule-1 species, which are accorded the highest degree of protection under the law, are found outside notified protected areas

726 protected areas in

Tiger 29% outside tiger reserves*

India (in green) comprising 4.88 per cent of total land area

Lansdowne Forest Division, a tiger corridor between Corbett and Rajaji tiger reserves, has 22-25 tigers but is not a protected area (PA)

Elephant 67% outside PAs*

Wolf

100

Data from West Bengal and Jharkhand indicates that a herd spent about 235-265 days in a year outside the protected areas between 2005 and 2008

Almost % outside PAs* Grasslands, which make up the wolves' habitat, are not notified as PAs

Gangetic dolphin Almost 100% outside PAs*

Blackbuck 50% outside PAs*

Gangetic dolphins are found along the entire stretch of the Ganga, but only the Vikramshila Gangetic Dolphin Sanctuary in Bihar's Bhagalpur district is a notified PA

58 per cent blackbucks were found outside the Velavadar Blackbuck National Park in Bhavnagar, Gujarat, in 2010

*All-India figure; the list is indicative and not exhaustive as there is not enough data on animals outside protected areas

as of March 2015, there are an estimated 169 birds left. The problem is how do you restrict a bird? They fly out of the protected areas and are then hunted for their meat,” says Sutirtha Dutta, a researcher at wii.

His concern is echoed by Bist. “The animals have corridors and we cannot control their movement. They cannot be confined to ‘notified’ areas as they need to be constantly on the move. The protection needs to extend beyond the notified protected areas,” he says.

According to Karanth, safeguarding

wild animals will require an understanding of their movement and species distribution beyond human-made boundaries, along with suitable conservation measures.

Conservationists, therefore, call for an inclusive approach to save the country’s wildlife. “We need to understand that all animals, fish, birds and reptiles need an equal degree of protection, especially outside the protected areas. The focus must be evenly distributed irrespective of whether a forest is a tiger reserve or not,” Bist says. n 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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SCIENCE BYTES

ASTROPHYSICS

Blackouts on the anvil

Nitrogen trap A more efficient use is needed to benefit both food production and the environment

AREAS CLOSER to the equator will experience disturbing effects on the power grid infrastructure due to stormy space weather.

Scientists say equatorial electrical disruptions could threaten power grids in Southeast Asia, India, Africa and South America, where protecting power infrastructure is not a priority. Such events strike equatorial regions more frequently than previously thought. Even low intensity storms can result in blackouts.

Geophysical Research Letters, August 25

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS

BIOLOGY

Clues to invisibility some fish species disappear from predators in the open waters of the ocean?

Scientists say some fish use microscopic structures called platelets in their skin cells to reflect polarised light, which allows the fish to seemingly disappear from their predators. Polarised light is made up of light waves travelling in the same plane, such as the bright glare one sometimes sees when sunlight reflects off the surface of water.

Under the surface of the water, light tends to be polarised. The discovery could help create more effective methods of ocean camouflage.

Science, November 20 HOW DO

VIKAS CHOUDHARY / CSE

A

FIRST GLOBAL analysis of nitrogen use efficiencyĂ?a measure of the

amount of nitrogen a plant takes in to grow versus what is left behind as pollutionĂ?says that using too much fertilisers will lead to increased pollution of waterways and the air. Currently, the global average for nitrogen use efficiency is approximately 0.4, meaning 40 per cent of the total nitrogen added to cropland goes into the harvested crop while 60 per cent is lost to the environment, says the study. More than half of the world's population is nourished by food grown with fertilisers containing synthetic nitrogen, which is needed to produce high crop yields. Plants take the nitrogen they need to grow, and the excess is left in the ground, water and air. This results in significant emissions of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse and ozone depleting gas, and other forms of nitrogen pollution, including eutrophication of lakes and rivers and contamination of drinking water. Nature, November 23 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

37S&T Bytes.indd 37

EARTH

Not flipping, as of now THE EARTH'S geomagnetic field is not in danger

of flipping anytime soon. The researchers calculated Earth's average, stable field intensity over the last five million years, and found that today's intensity is about twice that of the historical average. This indicates that the current field intensity has a long way to fall before reaching an unstable level that would lead to a reversal. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, November 23

www.downtoearth.org.in 37

04/12/15 6:09 PM

CLIMATE

Moving mountains

T

ILL THE 1960s, the Himalayas used to witness rain for seven days in a row every July. The Saat Jaad season was a highly revered geographical phenomenon, as rains recharged groundwater reserves and fed the rice bowl of Southeast Asia.

Schoolchildren used to get leave for a week. The phenomenon began to fade away slowly, and by the 1980s, it had died an unnatural death. Scientists believe climate change is responsible, at least in part.

For over a century now, climate change has been affecting the Himalayas in more ways than one. Temperature rise is five to six times more than the global average. Of the 75 glaciers, 63 are shrinking. Climate change-induced disasters have become more frequent and several flora and fauna species are disappearing.

Being one of the youngest mountain ranges in the world, it is vulnerable to climate change even without human intervention. Nearly two-thirds of Asia’s population are dependent on the Himalayas for its water requirements.

It also sustains over 1.3 billion people, who are dependent primarily on subsistence agriculture.

Though there is global data on climate change, but there is insufficient data on the impacts of climate change on the Himalayan region, says H S Dhami, vice chancellor of Kumaon University. The exact impacts on mountain ecosystems and the linkages with other drivers of global climate change are yet to be investigated. This can be attributed to poor accessibility of the complex Himalayan topography. Here, the weather changes every two to five kilometres (km), as opposed to the plains, where even in a 100 km area, the climate is uniform. The climate varies not only in different parts of the Himalayas, but also on different slopes in the same range.

“The information provided by global models is coarse and it cannot be applied to specific regions,” says J Sanjay, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (iitm), Pune. Of late, some initiatives are trying to map these changes more accurately (see ‘Monitoring models’).

A number of models are recording the disruption of weather and ecology to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the Himalayas JIGYASA WATWANI | NAINITAL

THINKSTOCKPHOTO

Mapping changes

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For instance, researchers part of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (cordex) archive and publish their datasets on a climate data portal for dissemination to climate change impact assessment groups. These groups then interpret raw data on how climate processes over the continent may change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pointed out the need for regional downscaling. This can be done by two methods. In dynamical downscaling, scientists focus on a region and run a global model with high resolution or they zoom into a specific region.

On the other hand, statistical downscaling is a two-step process to develop statistical relationships between local climate variables (such as surface air temperature and precipitation) and large-scale predictors (such as pressure fields). They then apply such relationships to the output of global climate model 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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CLIMATE

Monitoring models Some initiatives are trying hard to understand the Himalayan ecosystem PROJECT: IHCAP, a collaborative initiative between the Embassy of Switzerland and the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India.

AIM: To strengthen the knowledge and capacities of research institutions, communities and decision makers for effective policymaking.

PROJECT: CORDEX-South Asia is a partnership involving the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the Swedish Meteorological Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and

the University of Cape Town's Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG).

AIM: To interpret raw downscaled data for information on how climate processes over the continent may change, and to analyse how these changes may impact important sectors such as health, agriculture and water security in multiple regions across the continent.

PROJECT: SERVIR, a collaborative project between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

AIM: To improve environmental

experiments to simulate local climate characteristics. Scientists have been successfully using both methods to study the climate in the Himalayas.

Hydrological findings A P Dimri, a professor at the school of environmental sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University (jnu), New Delhi, uses dynamical downscaling to evaluate precipitation and temperature change patterns. He found precipitation data points were sparse at medium elevation, but more localised at lower and higher elevations, though uncertainty in precipitation patterns is more pronounced at medium elevations.

While data from northeast Himalayas show a decrease in overall precipitation, data from the northwest Himalayas reveal an overall increase in precipitation. Such assessments of downscaled data can help build capacity and expertise for decision making. “Till now, we have interpreted downscaled data only to analyse present scenarios (1970-2000). We are also working to predict the future (2020-2049) and the far future (2070-2099) scenarios using this data,” adds Dimri.

Some researchers have used India 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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decision making in the Hindu Kush Himalayas through the analysis and dissemination of Earth observation phenomenon.

PROJECT: HICAP is a collaborative research project of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Olso, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, and GRID-Arendal, a centre collaborating with United Nations Environment Programme.

AIM: Enhanced resilience of mountain communities, particularly women, through improved understanding of vulnerabilities, opportunities and potentials for

Meteorological Department to understand rainfall changes. For instance, S Sreekesh of the Centre for Social and Regional Development, jnu, focused on stations in Uttarakhand with varying altitudes— Munsiyari, Mukhteshwar, Mukhim, Joshimath, Dharchula and Dehradun—and found that though the number of rainy days has decreased since the 1960s, while the amount of rainfall has remained the same.

Rainfall over a short period of time could cause floods and other extreme-weather events, warns Sreekesh.

One of the biggest risk to the Himalayan ecosystem is caused by the melting of glaciers. To map the vulnerability of lakes, researchers are collecting data on the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (glofs).

A K Lohani of the National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, and his team studied glofs in the Teesta basin using remote sensing to detect the most vulnerable lakes.

They found Lake 140 and Lake 7 as the most vulnerable lakes. Using a one-dimensional equation of open channel flow, they computed the change in the area of Lake 140 to be about 28.66 per cent between April 2011 and March 2013. They say their experiment could help identify other

adaptation of mountain communities.

PROJECT: The Himalayan Glaciers and Rivers Project led by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), Nepal.

AIM: To study and bring out the realities of climate change impacts.

PROJECT: HI-AWARE, a Himalayan adaptation, water and resilience project led by ICIMOD. AIM: To increase climate resilience of poor communities. It conducted studies at three elevation sites in the region and found that there was an increase in summer and winter temperatures, decrease in snowfall and increase in flooding. Even within a community area, there was differential vulnerability.

vulnerable lakes in the Himalayas.

As the scientific community tries to find ways to assess the impact of a changing climate in the Himalayas, policymakers and local communities need to gear up to evolve appropriate mitigation and adaptive measures and integrate climate adaptation in development plans, felt experts at a recent conference on Climate Change: Impact and Adaptation in the Himalayas in Nainital.

They said that there is a need to take into account glof data on the number of glacial lakes in regions where hydropower projects are being planned to map their vulnerability, as pointed out by Lohani’s study of the Teesta basin. Similarly, analysis of rainfall patterns in Uttarakhand could be used to plan rainwater conservation projects, they said. Dimri’s analysis of decreasing precipitation in northeast Himalayas could enable the construction of water conservation projects and lead to effective flood management in the Himalayas. Mountains are transforming because their accessibility is being enhanced. “Therefore, mitigation is important, but adaptation has become vital, says J Bandhopadhyaya, a professor at jnu.

We must save Asia’s water towers before it is too late.  www.downtoearth.org.in 39

08/12/15 10:43 AM

MATHS

Dial M for mistake

In the world's largest democracy, the science of poll forecasting is still struggling with the basics, as the Bihar elections showed KUNDAN PANDEY | new delhi

I

N ITS exit poll, Axis apm predicted 169-

183 seats for grand alliance (GA) in the recently-held assembly elections in Bihar. The pollster was the only one close to the final result, but ironically, the results did not appear on cnn-ibn, where it was scheduled to be aired. The channel allegedly refused to air it due to doubts over the prediction methods that gave a massive victory for GA. The pollster then put the results online, which was later used by several media organisations.

Almost all other exit pollsters had predicted a close finish between the Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp)-led alliance and the Nitish Kumar-led GA, or in some cases, predicted victory for the former. Exit polls are largely considered more accurate than opinion polls. But this was not the case in Bihar. (see ‘Exit: the pollsters!’).

It is believed that if there is a huge mar-

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gin of victory, it is always easy to predict. But the Bihar poll changed this belief too. So the science of psephology in India is still struggling with the fundamentals, not only for opinion polls, but also for exit polls. “Poor application of psephology is the real reason for pollsters’ failure,” says Yogendra Yadav, a poll analyst.

Gauging distance

The political science of psephology is complex and poll analysts are experimenting with various methods to accurately predict elections. In India, psephologists have been conducting opinion polls and predicting elections for over 30 years.

Experts say problems may occur at two levels—arriving at a concrete estimate of the vote share and converting vote share to seats.

If a pollster gets even one level wrong, it results in an error. In the case of Bihar, poll-

sters say it was due to very poor sampling— surveyors were interviewing only the upper caste, rich and urban people. This is the one reason why even exit polls favoured the bjp, let alone opinion polls earlier that were following the same path. “It is always cheaper to cater to the rich people,” says Yadav.

Only 11.5 per cent of the voters in Bihar live in urban areas, while the rest lives in rural areas. Vinay Kanth, a mathematics professor at Patna University, says, “I doubt whether these the agencies included rural voters in their samples.” Praveen Rai, a political analyst with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (csds), says, “Forecasting agencies do not reveal their methodologies and related details about their surveys—samples, profile of people interviewed and location.”

Election forecasting in India is based on opinion polls which ascertains the choice of

16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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CREATIVE COMMONS

PSEPHOLOGY

Exit: the pollsters!

A close finish prediction is more convenient than to accurately predict the winner Exit poll predictions

BJP Alliance

Grand Alliance

180

Actual result: 178 for Grand Alliance

160

Actual result: 58 for BJP-led Alliance

140 Number of seats

120 100 80

political parties of the sampled electorate and calculates the vote share for each party contesting the election. The final vote share of each party is calculated by assigning ‘weightages’ based on the actual vote share of political parties in the previous election. The weighted votes share is then put into a forecasting model which translates the number of seats each political party is most likely to win, he adds.

The statistical challenge begins from the very beginning. Pradeep Gupta, chairperson of Axis apm, says correct sampling is a herculean task. “That’s why we conduct a survey before conducting the general survey to predict election results. This first survey is meant to understand the demography, local issues influencing the results, thus identifying the right sample,” he adds.

Mood interpretation The election forecast models developed by various organisations use statistical techniques like the Multiplier Effect, Index of Opposition Unity (when one party’s vote bank supports the alliance partner), Cube Law (where the seat shares have a multiplying factor, with every one per cent change in vote share) and the Probabilistic Count (a 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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90-100 130-140

113-127 111-123

108 130

20

155 (+-11) 83 (+-9)

40

101-121 112-132

Did pollsters accurately map rural votes which constitute 88.5 per cent in Bihar to predict the winner?

India TV-C Voter

News 24 Chanakya

News X CNX

ITG-Cicero

ABP

112-116 123-127

60

0

statistical tool to decipher large data).

A well known face of poll analysis in India, Rajeeva L Karandikar, director of the Chennai Mathematical Institute, who works with Lokniti, reveals the statistical method he uses, “We first decide upon the total number of constituencies to be sampled—it is somewhere between 100 and 280 selected via circular random sampling or systematic sampling. However, this is not possible in exit polls. Generally, agencies pick 10 voters of certain booth they have selected.”

The toughest challenge is converting the vote percentage to seats. “I use swing model along with opinion poll data to estimate votes for each major party in each seat and use a probabilistic count method (devised by him) to convert these into seat estimates,” says Karandikar. If there is huge gap between the voting percentages, it is easy to predict the winner. One way to predict winnable seats for a certain party is to go to every seat to find out the possible winner.

However, in cases where there is no huge margin between the contestants, it becomes problematic. In such cases, experts use a method called back testing. Under this, pollsters use the previous vote share of different parties and then compare it with their find-

News Nation

ings. The change in the percentage of votes is called a swing. After dividing the state into regions, they try to find out the swing at the region level and base their results on it.

Many times, when one compares the predicted vote share in each constituency with the actual findings, there are a lot of variations. Experts say the pollsters need to devise a more accurate sample base to estimate the vote share of major parties in each constituency.

The common perception that political parties or corporates influence poll findings does not hold water as the pollster’s credibility is at stake, says Yadav. India is different in terms of voting patterns. Voter’s choice can be based on their caste, religion, education and class. Forecast science needs to account all these factors, both in rural as well as in urban areas. Kanth says that seat conversion is not necessarily always proportionate to the vote share. Constituency-wise distribution is tough to decipher, he says, adding that it is not clear whether the booths chosen represented the entire constituency. Agencies use corrective methods to reduce the error margin. But it is clear from the Bihar polls that the pollsters themselves are sitting on an embarrassing error. n www.downtoearth.org.in 41

08/12/15 10:44 AM

FOOD

Black beauty Black rice is drought resistant and has rich medicinal properties.

Manipur and Assam are reviving this variety

sativa) was forbidden in China. Not because it looked poisonous for its black colour, but because it had nutritional values, and found a place only on an emperor’s menu. For centuries, the nutritional values of this wild rice eluded common people. It is only now that researchers have begun to study the sticky varieties of black rice and found that it has several medicinal and nutritional values. It has anticancer properties and the bran of black rice is also known to soothe inflammation due to allergies, asthma and other diseases.

Grown in parts of Northeast and even in West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha, black rice is indigenous to these areas. In Manipur, it is considered food as well as part of the traditional medicine. Called chak-hao, it is

VIKAS CHOUDHARY / CSE

ANUPAM CHAKRAVARTTY

N

OT VERY long ago, black rice (Oryza

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eaten during community feasts. In the local language, chak means rice and ahaoba means delicious, therefore, chak-hao means delicious rice. Chak-hao kheer (pudding) is a part of any feast (see recipe: ‘Chak-hao’).

The rice water too is used to wash hair to make it stronger.

Medicinal history The rice gets its dark black or purplish colour because it is rich in anthocyanins, which are powerful antioxidants, says Dinabandhu Sahoo, director of Institute for Bioresource and Sustainable Development (ibsd), Imphal.

“The rice contains more vitamin B, niacin, vitamin E, calcium, magnesium, iron, and zinc as compared to white rice.

Rich in fibre, the grain has a sweet and slightly nutty taste. It is as an “unmilled rice”—the fiber-rich black husks of the rice are not removed,” he says. ibsd is conducting a research to trace the genome of the rice variety which grows in Manipur.

Research shows that anthocyanins not only act as antioxidants, they also activate detoxifying enzymes; prevent cancer cell proliferation; induce cancer cell death (apoptosis); have anti-inflammatory effects; have antiangiogenesis effects (they inhibit the formation of new blood vessels that encourage tumour growth); prevent cancer cell invasion; and, induce differentiation (the more differentiated the cancer cell, the less likely it is to grow and spread), says a research by China-based cancer specialist, Li-Ping Luo and team, which was published in the Asia Pacific Journal for Cancer Prevention in 2014.

The study shows that anthocyanins from black rice reduce the multiplication of breast cancer cells. Anthocyanins are known to protect from environmental stress factors, such as ultraviolet light, cold temperatures and drought.

Potshangbam Devakanta, a Manipurbased farmer who has been farming about

Research shows that black rice reduces the multiplication of breast cancer cells 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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100 traditional varieties of paddy, says that black rice is drought-resistant. It is also a part of the traditional Manipuri diet and is locally called chakhaopoireiton. Devakanta was conferred the Protection of Plant Varieties and Farmers Rights Act award in 2012 for conserving black rice varieties. He is promoting its cultivation among other farmers too.

Mystery of origin Through grown widely, the origin of black rice is not clear. Crop scientists in Japan, whose research was published in September in The Plant Cell, found that ancient humans grew certain varieties of rice for their nutritional and medicinal value through crossbreeding. Researchers discovered that the traits in black rice arose due to a rearrangement in a gene called Kala4, which activates the production of anthocyanins. They concluded that this rearrangement must have originally occurred in the tropical Japonica subspecies of rice and that the black rice trait was then transferred into other varieties (including those found today) by crossbreeding.

“The birth and spread of novel agronomical traits during crop domestication are complex events in plant evolution,” says the study’s lead scientist, Takeshi Izawa. The findings of black rice help explain the history of domestication of black rice by ancient humans, during which they selected desirable traits including grain colour.

Though figures for total black rice grown in Manipur is not available with the state government, ibsd officials say the rice is sold in the local markets for as much as ` 300 per kg.

Scaling up cultivation ibsd’s Sahoo says black rice only covers 10 per cent of the total cultivation in Manipur due to its poor yield. However, the state agriculture department is now vigorously pursuing the System of Rice Intensification, a methodology aimed to increase rice yield. Black rice farming is a low water, labour-intensive, organic method that uses younger seedlings singly spaced and typically hand weeded with special tools.

The department is urging Manipuri

RECIPE Chak-hao (Black rice pudding or kheer) INGREDIENTS

1/2 cup (100g) black rice (serves 4 to 5 people) 5 cups (250ml) full-cream milk 1/4 cup (65g) white granulated sugar (add to taste) 1/2 teaspoon ground green cardamom METHOD

Rinse the rice and soak in water for about six hours or overnight.

Drain the rice and transfer to a saucepan with the milk. Bring the rice to boil, then reduce the heat, and simmer, stirring frequently for about 30 minutes or until the rice is tender. Add sugar and cook for five more minutes.

Stir frequently. Garnish with cardamom and remove from the heat. Serve hot, warm or cold.

farmers to stop the jhum or slash and burn farming to claim agricultural land and adopt this technique to minimise the cost of production.

Assam’s agriculture department, on the other hand, is planning bulk cultivation of black paddy for exports. “We are planning to cultivate the organic variety of black paddy in Goalpara in bulk to export. The organic variety has a huge market abroad and has the potential to fetch a premium price,” says Manoranjan Das, sub-divisional agriculture officer of Dudhnoi in Goalpara district, Assam.

The department’s decision has been prompted by the recent success of black paddy farming under a Union government sponsored scheme at Amuguripara in Goalpara district. A total of 1,200 quintals of black rice was produced from 13.2 hectares under the scheme. With encouragement from the Union government and state agriculture departments, rare and traditional species of black rice could replay its glorious past.  www.downtoearth.org.in 43

04/12/15 6:13 PM

`Construction is still going on with the tacit support of the Nainital Lake Development Authority' One of the most popular hill stations in India, Nainital is threatened by rampant constructions, even in landslide-prone sites. AJAY SINGH RAWAT, an environmental activist and history professor at Kumaon University, filed a public interest petition in 1993, and in 1995 stringent building rules were framed by the Nainital Lake Region Special Area Development Authority. Rawat spoke to JIGYASA WATWANI about his efforts to make Nainital an ecosensitive zone. Excerpts

How far have conditions improved in the Naini Lake since you filed a public interest litigation (PIL) in 1993?

In 1995, the Supreme Court (SC) gave directions that the Naini Lake should be saved on a war footing. Following this, a number of activities were done: dredging helped remove silt from the lake and aeration and bio-manipulation was introduced to improve the lake ecology. The horse stand, which was the main source of pollution, was shifted outside the catchment area. The maximum permissible height of new buildings in Nainital was fixed at 7.5 metres and the maximum covered area was fixed at 250 square metres. As a result, water quality and oxygen level of the lake improved tremendously.

Studies show great improvement of water quality in the lake’s entire water column. Before aeration was introduced, oxygen was limited to only 5-7 metres depth of water, in which, oxygen concentrations varied between 8 mg/L and 0.5 mg/L. After aeration, a constant level of oxygen was observed. As a result, fish movement in the lake increased from a depth of seven metres to 23 metres.

The biological oxygen demand of Naini Lake shot up by 20 times and the concentration of carbon dioxide increased by 670 per cent during 1981-91. What were the reasons behind this huge jump?

During the militancy in Gorkhaland and Kashmir, people preferred to go to Mussoorie and Nainital. Between the two, people preferred Nainital because Mussoorie had a paucity of water. The

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sudden surge in population and tourism led to a mad rush for construction of new hotels in Nainital and, in some cases, rules were openly flouted. Today, we have more than 350 hotels in Nainital, most of whom are not registered with the government. During the tourist season, every third house rents a room to tourists.

I filed a pil against the builder mafia in the SC in 1993. My focus was on the heavy construction by builders, reviving the polluted lakes and saving the Ballia Nullah and Ballia Ravine, through which the outflow of the lake water passes. Builders would dump all their construction debris in the drains and then wait for the rains to sweep it away to the lake. As a result, a lot of dirt found its way into the lake.

included Bhim Tal, Nakuchiya Tal and Saat Tal. In the lakes of Nakuchia Tal, Sat Tal and Khurpa Tal, remedial measures like aeration were also undertaken to protect them from dying ecologically. In Bhim Tal, a small island restaurant which was responsible for pollution around the lake, was shut down.

What makes Nainital fragile?

Geologically, Nainital is very fragile as it is bound by two thrusts (a thrust is a high angle dislocation plane on the surface of the Earth or below the surface). The Main Boundary Thrust forms the southern boundary and the Ramgarh Thrust forms the northern boundary of Nainital. There are several other fault lines, such as the Nainital fault, the Giwalikhet fault and the Kuriya fault, which are responsible for the fragility of the region.

For instance, the continuous subsidence of the Raj Bhawan road is due to the Giwalikhet fault. In fact, the entire northwestern and south-eastern parts of Nainital are located on a succession of landslide de-

11-room hotels. My PIL in 2012 also sought to address the issue of encroachment on the drains. Now the HC has removed illegal constructions on the drains. As a result, during rains this July, as all illegal constructions were removed, the enormous flow of debris cascaded and settled. At least three hotels, apart from several other buildings, were saved.

Why do you want Nainital to be declared an eco-sensitive zone?

In fact, in 2003, the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (moefcc) had constituted an expert committee to identify the parameters to determine the environmental sensitivity of hill stations.

According to its report, Nainital, Mussoorie, Matheran and Mount Abu should be declared as eco-sensitive zones. While MathDoes Nainital face a water shortage? eran and Mount Abu have received the staHow can there be a shortage when we have tus of an eco-sensitive zone, Nainital and so many lakes in and around here. It’s just an Mussoorie haven’t. The conservator of forengineered paucity of water that stems from ests, Nainital, also sent a report to the prinan unnecessary high demand. The problem cipal chief conservator of forests, is that all the water is being divertUttarakhand in March 2007. ed. Take the case of the Sukha Tal, "While Matheran and Mount Abu have a lake. According to the National However, no action has been taken got the status of an eco-sensitive zone, Hydrological Ins-titute, more by the state government till now.

Nainital and Mussoorie haven't" than 50 per cent of the water in The situation has improved drastically in hill stations that have the Naini Lake comes from Sukha Tal during the monsoon. This water is being bris fans. Moreover, the mountains in been declared to be eco-sensitive zones. In Nainital are made of calcium and magnesi- Nainital’s case, the state government seems diverted to feed illegal constructions.

In fact, construction is still going on with um carbonate rocks, making them all the unwilling to clear the moefcc’s proposal bethe tacit support of the Lake Development more fragile. It is also important to note that cause then, local politicians will not be able Authority. If this continues, the Sukha Tal the acceleration of erosion and increased in- to oblige their henchmen and all illegal conwill dry up in the next 10-15 years. My peti- stability of the hill slopes is due to human ac- structions would come to an end. I filed a pil tion to the SC in 2012 also sought to ban such tivities, combined with indiscriminate buil- in 2012.

There have been several hearings since constructions in the lake bed. ding construction and disposal of debris. the petition was filed in 2012. However, the Lakes such as Khurpa Tal and Saat Tal are How crucial is the role of the drains con- High Court (HC) of Uttarakhand tried to dialso bearing the brunt of mindless exploi- structed during the British rule? vert the issue in each of these hearings. For tation of resources. How far have condi- The nearly 79-km drains around Nainital instance, the HC paid little heed to the clause tions improved in these lakes? have been called the arteries and veins of the requiring Nainital be declared an eco sensiI had filed a pil against the illegal boring city. They were built in the aftermath of the tive zone. Instead, they ordered slums in of groundwater from the Khurpa Tal in landslide in 1880 that killed 151 people, 43 ward number seven to be cleared.

As the issue was not being addressed, I 2009. A survey report by the Department of whom were Europeans. In the aftermath of Geo-logy in Kumaon University and the of my petition in the SC in 1993, Nainital was demanded a new bench hear the case.

Jal Nigam clearly mentions how mindless connected by sewer lines and new branch Following the landslide in July this year, the extraction of groundwater from the area line connections were being made to prevent bench was changed. The new bench is sympathetic to the poor people living in ward would affect springs, of which the lake is the sewer from entering the lake. main source.

Unfortunately, today, there is no mainte- number seven. However, even now the need Boring has now been stopped in Khurpa nance of these drains. In recent years, to make it an eco-sensitive zone has not gathTal. In all, nine lakes, in a radius of 22 km hotel owners have encroached upon areas ered momentum. If this continues, I will aparound Nainital, required restoration. These that were previously drains, building even proach the SC. n

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COLUMN H E D G E H O G TA L E S

RAKESH KALSHIAN

The blind spot of science Will scientists ever concede that science and politics are bedfellows, no matter how strange?

O

UR PREJUDICES about names are often coloured

by the spirit of our times. A name like Mahan Maharaj, for instance, is likely to conjure up images of a saffron-clad Hindu chauvinist. We are a little abashed then when a man bearing this alias turns out to be a first-rate mathematician who was recently conferred India’s most lavish science laurel, the Infosys Science Prize, for his sterling work in geometry.

Surprise gives way to curious wonderment when it is further revealed that the man is a monk, and that too a saffron-robed one!

We may find the idea of a mathematician monk oxymoronic cool, but Mahan Maharaj, who till recently taught mathematics at Ramakrishna Mission Vivekananda University, Kolkata, is at best an interesting throwback to a time when the pursuit of rarefied disciplines such as philosophy and mathematics was intimately linked with asceticism— the idea that a life untarnished by worldly indulgence is in harmony with the quest for pure truth.

Pythagoras, Hypatia, Blaise Pascal, Spinoza and Paul Erdos are a few notable exemplars of this ethos.

However, it is Mahan’s blithe remark that “science by nature is apolitical” that one finds a little baffling. It sounds blithe because scientists have long maintained that science is a dispassionate inquiry into the nature of objective reality. Unlike religious and political beliefs, scientific truth, they aver, is unblemished by prejudice. And when critics point out the dangerous fallouts of scientific research, such as nuclear weapons, they argue that science in itself is artless and amoral—it is what we do with it that makes it good or evil. It is also a little baffling because despite several persuasive critiques of this naïve view of science in the last five decades, the scientific fraternity has doggedly stuck to its dogma.

It was environmental activists like Rachel Carson who in the 1960s exposed the nexus between science and the desire for pelf and power. Around the same time, in his ground-breaking book The Structure of Scientific

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Revolutions, science historian Thomas Kuhn made the controversial claim that science cannot be understood on the basis of its alleged objectivity alone as this socalled objectivity is coloured by the cultural and political beliefs of its practitioners. So there cannot be, he claimed, a definitive method for judging the validity of knowledge, including science. Knowledge sociologists such as Bruno Latour and David Bloor further embroidered the critique by showing what scientists believe as valid knowledge is influenced not just by overarching political and economic factors, but also by everyday practice of science.

Unfortunately, most of this critique, written in the specialist’s jargon, has remained beyond the ken of most scientists. If anything, rather than provoking a dialogue, it has triggered what are now known as the Science Wars. If scientists find it difficult to accept that science is not objective, it’s not hard to imagine the stand of pure mathematicians like Mahan. However, in recent times, some sociologists have challenged the view that mathematics, like Caesar’s wife, is above suspicion.

One group, inspired by Bloor’s work, is refuting the view that mathematics is a pure white rabbit pulled out of the hat of physical TARIQUE AZIZ / CSE reality or the human mind. A second group of iconoclasts wants to parse the social system in which mathematical knowledge is created and deployed by investigating matrices such as funding, jobs, pecking order and communication.

This might well yield further insights into the contentious issue of science being the true arbiter of knowledge. But the question is whether it would persuade scientists to get off their high horse. In 1959, British physicist-novelist C P Snow had bemoaned the widening chasm between literary intellectuals and scientists. Snow was on the side of scientists. The situation today is not very different except that the roles have been reversed. In a world increasingly addicted and servile to science and technology, only a miracle can bring the two opposing camps to the same table.  16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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L I F E & N AT U R E

The lingering scent of Kannauj The world's oldest hub for producing itr, the traditional Indian perfume, is fighting to retain its fragrance RAJIT SENGUPTA | KANNAUJ, UTTAR PRADESH 48 DOWN TO EARTH

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PHOTOGRAPHS: RAJIT SENGUPTA / CSE

Nishish Tewari of Gauri Sughandh says recent bans on pan masala and chewing tobacco have also affected the demand for itr. These sectors buy 80 per cent of itr manufactured in the country

Rising demand for cheap alcohol-based fragrances, high cost of production and scarcity of sandalwood oil have affected the industry

A

S YOU enter Bara Bazaar in Kannauj, Uttar Pradesh, wading through the narrow lanes, a heady fusion of fragrances envelops you.

Amid a few general and sweet shops, there are some stores that are stacked with glass bottles filled with itr—India’s traditional perfume. Located near the confluence of the Ganga and Kali rivers, Kannauj has been home to a thriving perfume industry since the days of Harshavardhana, who ruled north India between 606 and 647 BC. Later, Kannauj provided perfumes and scented oils to the Mughal emperors.

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steaming and distillation—a process that is largely environment friendly (see ‘Ecologically serene’ on p50). But the last few years have seen the city’s perfume industry shrink. A rising demand for cheap alcoholbased fragrances, coupled with the high cost of production, and lack of sandalwood oil— which was traditionally used —has badly affected the itr industry.

Gauri Sugandh is a popular perfume destination. Its owner, Nishish Tewari, a young man in his late 20s, stands beside cupboards that are stacked with glass bottles of itr in different colours. But a closer look reveals the bottom row of cupboards loaded with modern alcohol-based deodorants.

“Most customers prefer modern perfume and deodorants. When a good deodorant can do the same job for you, why spend so much on itr?” he asks. At one time, itr from Kannauj was popular all across the world, but the onslaught of inexpensive alcoholbased fragrances and deodorants has flattened the demand for itr everywhere, he adds.

The recent bans on pan masala and chewing tobacco have also affected demand, as these sectors buy close to 80 per cent of all

itr manufactured in the country, according to the district administration data. A small percentage is also used in the wellness sector. Itrs of rose and kewra are also used in traditional sweets for flavouring. The remaining is used in food items such as icecreams and drinks.

Production pitfalls Shrinking demand is not the only problem.

“A 100 ml vial of the famous Ruh Gulab (rose itr) costs ` 1,000,” says Gaurav Malhotra of Puja Perfumeries, one of the oldest itr manufacturers in the city, as he opens the lid of the bottle and the rose fragrance fills his office. “But you can also get rose itr for as low as ` 100 in the market,” says Malhotra, adding that most of the trade happens in good faith. But in the absence of standards, the quality of the product suffers.

Standards are available for analysis of sandalwood oil. But acute shortage of sandalwood after it was banned in north India and highly regulated in south India in the 1990s has affected production.

Now, sandalwood oil has been replaced with petroleum products such as Di-octyl Phthalate (dop) or liquid paraffin. As a result, the credibility of the industry suffers.

Malhotra also blames the situation to rising production and labour costs. “Maintenance of age-old equipment is another problem,” he says.

The quality of itr is also dependent on the quality of raw material, flowers. www.downtoearth.org.in 49

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The time duration between the plucking of flower and the process parameters of distillation can also affect the quality of itrs. “Most of the species, which are used in the manufacturing of Indian traditional fragrances, such as Jatamansi, Sugandh Bala, Kapoor Kachri, Sugandh Mantri and Nagarmotha, have no specification for their quality assessment. To survive in the world market, it is necessary to have quality standards. Their standardisation is essential to leave a fragrance in the world market,” says Malhotra.

Poor marketing Traders say “poor marketing” is keeping itr away from the main market of perfumes and fragrances. In October, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav visited Grasse, France’s perfume capital, to save the industry. A joint venture resulted in the Kannauj-Grasse pact, which will enable sharing of expertise, and a proposal to set up an international perfume museum in Kannauj in collaboration with the French government is on the anvil. A course on perfumery at the Kannauj Engineering College is also planned.

How can Kannauj’s perfume industry be revived? Says R K Srivastava, assistant director, Fragrance & Flavour Development Centre: “Itr is traditionally believed to have medicinal qualities. But there is hardly any scientific studies on them.” He added that his department has submitted a proposal with the Union Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises to carry out a detailed

Ecologically serene The process is eco-friendly and there is no waste T H E M O S T interesting aspect of itr is that its manufacturing process has not changed since ages. "Simply put, itr manufacturing is a play of water and fire, and almost all the other raw materials are natural," says Gaurav Malhotra of Puja Perfumeries. There are primarily two kinds of itrs—floral (rose, bela etc), and herbs (sugandh mantri, cardamom, clove etc)—and the flavours are extracted directly from flower petals or herb plants. Itrs are manufactured using a hydro distillation process that are fired through dung cakes or wood.

Traditionally, sandalwood is used as the base oil. But none of the oil is wasted.

The equipment used in manufacturing process is made of copper or bamboo sticks. And alcohol is not used in the production process. Not only is the process green, even the byproduct is recycled. For example, the used rose or sandalwood petals and even the burnt wood are consumed by the agarbatti (incense sticks) industry. Even the water that is drained after itr is made is so clean that local workers often take a bath in the water that is drained after the process.

study on the medicinal benefits of itr. “We are awaiting a response.”

Meanwhile, many manufacturers have now gone online to sell their products.

Malhotra, whose family has been manufacturing itr for the past 100 years, says that they moved online to expand their customer base. “Besides tobacco and food industry, we also export globally.”

He even talks about a US wellness chain that regularly buys from them. Another manufacturer, Meena Perfumery, claims it exports 70 per cent of its products to Germany, France, the US, the UK, China, Africa and West Asia.

Pampi Jain of Pragati Aroma and Oil

Distillers says the basic technique of itr cannot be changed, but new technology should be used wherever possible. His factory is one of the few in Kannauj that uses modern machinery. Traditional cooking vessels have been replaced by giant steel cylindrical containers for extracting oil.

Jain refutes the fear that the industry might close down in the future. “Fragrance is part of our everyday life. We brush our teeth with flavoured toothpaste, bathe with a scented soap and then apply perfume.

Fragrances will not go out of our lives.

It’s just a question of whether we want to keep our traditions alive. That is the real challenge,” he adds. n

Itrs are manufactured using a hydro distillation process that is fired through dung cakes or wood

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REVIEW

Gut feeling Finally, a book that breaks down the science of our gut ADITYA MISRA

GUT: THE INSIDE STORY OF OUR BODY 'S MOST UNDERRATED ORGAN Giulia Enders Speaking Tiger | 271 pages | ` 869

E

VERY TIME we go to the loo, it’s a masterly

performance,” writes Giulia Enders in her hugely successful book, Gut. The line quite accurately captures the author’s fascination with the subject. Enders says the gut is the most underrated organ of the human body and makes a compelling argument. Of the three main systems of the human body— the nervous system, the cardiovascular system and the digestive system—the “masterpieces” of the first two, brain, in the case of the nervous system, and heart, in the case of the cardiovascular system, are held in great regard. But the gut, which is no less wonderful and important, is not given due credit. “The gut’s network of nerves is called the ‘gut brain’ because it is just as large and chemically complex as the grey matter in our heads,” she says.

However, it is the bacteria (weighing nearly two kilogrammes) in the gut, which are at the centre of her attention. Among other functions, they counter diseases, digest food, generate energy, manufacture hormones and are responsible for our mood. In fact, the connection between the gut and the brain is an emerging field of study and gut microbes might hold the key to several diseases, including psychiatric disorders. “Anyone who suffers from anxiety or depression should remember that an unhappy gut can be the cause of an unhappy mind,” she writes.

However, this connection is yet to be proven and the

SORIT / CSE

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EXCERPT SQUATTING HAS been the natural pooing position for humans since

time immemorial. The modern sitting toilet has existed only since indoor sanitation became common, in the late eighteenth century.

But such 'cavemen did it that way' arguments are often met with distain [sic] by the medical profession. Who says that squatting helps the muscle relax better and straightens the faeces highway?

Japanese researchers fed volunteers luminescent substances and X-rayed them while doing their business in various positions. They found out two interesting things. First, squatting does indeed lead to a nice, straight intestinal tract, allowing for a direct, easy exit. Second, some people are nice enough to let researchers feed them luminous substances and X-ray them while they poo, all in the name of science. Both findings are pretty impressive, I think.

Haemorrhoids, digestive diseases like

diverticulitis, and even constipation are common only in countries where people generally sit on some kind of chair to pass their stool. This is not due to lack of tissue strength, especially in young people, but to the fact that there is too much pressure on the end of the gut. Some people tend to tense up their entire belly muscles when they are stressed. Often, they don't even realize they are doing it. Haemorrhoids prefer to avoid internal pressure like that, by hanging out of the anus. Diverticula are small, light-bulbshaped pouches in the bowel wall, resulting from the tissue in the gut bulging outwards under pressure.

Of course, the way we go to the toilet is not the only cause of haemorrhoids or diverticula. However, it remains a fact that the 1.2 billion people in this world who squat have almost no incidence of diverticulosis, and far fewer problems with hemorrhoids. We in the West, on the other hand, squeeze our gut tissue till it comes out of our bottoms and we have to have it removed by a doctor.

hypothesis has even received criticism for being far-fetched.

What would make a large section of the Indian population happy, and smug, is Enders’ wholehearted approval of the squatting posture for emptying the bowel.

She says that the “closure mechanism of our gut is not designed in such a way that it can open the hatch completely when we are seated.” (See ‘The gut influences..., p54 ) The book also explains how the gut is

Enders approves of the squatting posture for emptying the bowel. She says the closure mechanism of our gut is not designed in such a way that it can open the hatch completely when we are seated

connected to food allergies, constipation, vomiting, diarrhoea and acid reflux. It also has several interesting nuggets about bodily phenomena we witness every day but do not notice or understand. For instance, the rumbling sound we think the stomach makes when we are hungry is actually the sound of the cleaning process going on inside the small intestine. The book explains why the eyes appear swollen when we wake up in the morning or why is there a sudden rush of saliva in the mouth right before we are about to vomit.

Enders has also given pieces of information that are in contrast to conventional wisdom and theories. For instance, she says that the much maligned cholesterol is necessary for the body. “If it weren’t for cholesterol, we would have no sex hormones, no vitamin D,” she writes. She also says that compared to olive oil, butter is better for deep frying since it is much more stable when exposed to heat. The book has a generous sampling of such information, which ensures that the reader is constantly amused and hooked. www.downtoearth.org.in 53

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AU T H O R S P E A K S

`The gut influences our mood'

G

GERALD VON FORIS

iulia Enders is a two-time scholarship winner studying medicine at the Institute for Microbiology in Frankfurt, Germany. Her presentation of Darm mit Charme (Gut Charm) won her first prize at the Science Slam in Berlin and went viral on YouTube. Her book on the gut is a bestseller. Enders speaks to Down To Earth about the less discussed topic. Excerpts

What made you choose an unusual subject such as the gut?

When I was 17, I had really bad dermatitis. I wanted to know more about my body and not feel a victim to its ways. When I read about the gut I was extremely surprised that it is way cleaner than I always believed it to be: seven of the approximately eight metres don't have anything to do with faeces, but are clean and odourless most of the time. Also, I was stunned how sensible and responsible it is for so many things in my life-not only food, but my mood, my immune system and also my hormones.

How different is this organ from others?

It is very pretty when you zoom in! The small intestine looks very much like satin under the microscope. If we would roll out all the wrinkles and frill, our gut would be around seven kilometres.

Why do people have such a difficult relationship with their intestine?

In Germany this isn't an easy topic to discuss. So I was very glad when people wrote me that they almost couldn't believe their ears when their catholic grandma put the book on the table and said: `So I think we must talk about this gut book. I discovered I sat wrong on the toilet for 74 years today!' Laughter is a great tool to let go of false shame.

How do the brain and intestine work together?

The scientific hypothesis here is: our brain is a very isolated organ. It is 54 DOWN TO EARTH

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within its bony skull and has a very thick membrane to filter every drop of blood before it may nurture the brain cells.

This isolated organ needs to know how we, as a whole, are doing in order to create a mood. Our gut has very relevant information for this: it knows not only all the molecules from our foods, but also what two-thirds of our immune system are doing, what the 100 trillion bacteria are up to, and produces around 20 hormones of its own.

Recent research on mice shows how to make them more courageous, or better in studying new things via different gut bacteria. There are also new results of experiments on humans. An American research team showed that the human brain patterns change after a four-week intake of special bacteria, especially in the area of emotion-processing.

To what extent does the intestine influence our mood?

We know only some pieces of the puzzle. For example, people with chronic inflammatory diseases of the gut or irritable bowel syndrome have a higher risk of getting anxiety disorders or depression. Research shows how to improve our mood with gut bacteria. Feeding some of your good microbes well is a smart move. The hard-to-digest grain-cereal is not always the best, but consumption of water-soluble fibres like asparagus, cold potato and onions could help. But more research is needed to specify the extent to which our gut can influence our brain.

How should we treat our bowel?

Get a smarter body feeling using science.

Knowing that food takes two to three hours to being taken up in the blood can help you calculate: how do I feel two to three hours after a meal? You can experiment with foods such as probiotics and prebiotics. I am a supporter of selfexperiments, as long as they don't harm you.

How did you prepare to write this book?

I read tonnes of papers and then started playing with the content. My sister was always a great inspiration since she is a scientific-designer. When I got stuck, she would help me see things from different perspectives. I love her illustrations in the book. In my eyes, she has a flawless style.

How has the book changed your life?

Honestly, I didn't think so much about success when I was writing the book. I just thought: more people need to know and this has to be as good as possible.

I was very afraid of German scientists; whether they would discard me. But so far, I have got great reactions. Two of my professors invited me to give a 10-minute talk in their lectures.

What's your next book?

First, I hope to be a good doctor. If there is something that I really want people to know, then I could imagine doing small projects with my sister again. But I will be very happy if I could put this book out in the world and continue with my medical work. n 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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COLUMN PAT E N T LY A B S U R D

L AT H A J I S H N U

Patent block to clean energy

Intellectual property on green technologies, specially in the US, is pushing up costs for developing countries

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ROMISES OF money—a torrent actually—made for a grand opening of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris. Some rich governments and even richer individuals offered generous funding to help developing countries with cleaner technologies to reduce their carbon footprint. But as usual, it turned out to be a Barmecide’s feast, with nothing laid on the table.

The two initiatives announced in Paris to push clean energy innovation and fight climate change, hinge on technological breakthroughs. The first is ªMission Innovationº, in which 26 countries have pledged to double government investment in clean energy research over the next five years. The other is the ªBreakthrough Energy Coalitionº, put together by Microsoft founder Bill Gates and other global entrepreneurs and hedge funds.

Billions are to be invested by Gates and company, who envision such things as artificial photosynthesis to produce liquid hydrocarbons. It is doubtless a tantalising prospect.

The irony is that there is even now enough technology to help developing countries to switch to clean energy. The problem is the cost of transferring patented technology.

Intellectual Property Rights (iprs) such as patents add a huge cost to getting innovation and research breakthroughs to the market. This is the pound of flesh that investors like Gates demand.

India and other developing countries have been pointing out that patented technology is too expensive for them and have tried, futilely though, to get the UN to declare green technologies as a public good. India had suggested that part of the UN’s Green Climate Fund should be used to buy out iprs on the most needed of these technologies. The proposal has been shot down by the US which is a firm believer in iprs and the sacredness of corporate profit. It is one of the ironies of the climate change debate that the cabal of developed countries which rail against the use of dirty coal by developing countries, will

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stoutly oppose any dilution of iprs that could help them switch to clean energy. The question of picking up the incremental cost of patented knowhow is never addressed.

There is also the cussedness of the US, which effectively blocks developing countries from pursuing clean energy if these imperil the markets and profits of its companies. For instance, the US has filed a case against India at the World Trade Organization (wto) for discriminating against American firms simply because Delhi has earmarked a tiny percentage of its solar energy projects for locally-made solar panels in an attempt to nurture a fledgling domestic industry.

The short point is that there is enough clean energy technology available even now in a sector that is flush with new ideas and projects. The stumbling block, however, is the monopolistic nature of this knowhow which is the monopoly of a handful of countries but overwhelmingly of the US. According to the Clean Energy Patent Growth Index, the number of patents granted annually to US companies has RITIKA BOHRA / CSE soared five-fold since 2002 and is set to notch another record in 2015.

A Bloomberg News analysis gives an interesting break-up. It finds that most of the patents in 2015 have been for solar technologies, followed by fuel cells, electric vehicles, and wind power. In the first half of this year, as many as 586 were for solar. Such patents have seen a quantum leap after renewable energy came into its own this century. The competition has lowered prices but not enough for poor countries.

The final twist: a news report quoted Gates as saying that green technology companies could learn from the information technology (IT) sector on how to deal with iprs. The free software movement must be having a big laugh. Gates is no Linus Torvalds who put his research in the public domain or supported free software. In the IT industry, Microsoft has the reputation of using its huge arsenal of patents most aggressively.  www.downtoearth.org.in 55

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OPINION

Flaw overflow Has the Maharashtra government prepared the draft river basin plan for the Godavari only to push for more projects in the region?

SACHIN TIWALE

E

VEN THOUGH it has taken 10 years for the Maharashtra

government to prepare a draft of an integrated river basin plan for the Godavari, it has miles to go as the draft has considerable limitations in terms of its procedure of plan preparation, integration of various stakeholders and insufficiency of the data. The Maharashtra Water Resources Regulatory Act, 2005, (mwrra) had mandated the state government to submit the first draft of the integrated state water plan for approval within six months of the act came into force. The draft, which was prepared by the state government’s Water Resources Department, aims to adopt an integrated river basin management approach to manage water resources for the largest basin of the state, which covers nearly 49 per cent of its geographical area.

However, it is difficult to ignore the fact that the draft plan was made available

public only after the High Court of Bombay ordered the state government in July 2015 not to provide any administrative approval to any new project until and unless an integrated state water plan was finalised, as stated in the mwrra. Thus, the high court is one of the major factors pushing the government of Maharashtra to speed up the process of plan preparation.

Missing multidisciplinary River basin planning is essentially considered as a multidisciplinary task to be carried out by competent agencies involving multiple actors. But the draft has undermined or sidelined the multisectoral approach. For example, the draft plan does not mention anything about the status of water quality in each sub-basin or in the Godavari basin as a whole. It simply says that the Central Groundwater Authority (cgwa) and the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (mpcb) should prepare separate independent plan and implement them effectively to improve the water quality.

Thus the planners have outsourced one entire objective of state water plan focusing on improvement of water

TARIQUE AZIZ / CSE

for the quality in river basin to other agencies. Since the quality of water released from industry and urban centres also critically determines the quantity of availability of water for downstream users, it is not clear as to how without reliable quality data the planners have calculated the quantity of available water for downstream users for reference year, 2010, and for the year of horizon, 2030.

In the case of floods, planners have not taken any responsibility for managing floods in the basin, though the draft plan itself says that the Godavari river basin has 305 cities and 3,091 villages that are flood prone. These cities and villages are mainly located in eastern part of Maharashtra. The planners have outsourced the responsibility of preparing an action plan for flood-prone areas to the Relief and Rehabilitation Department. Moreover, the draft has asked local self-governing bodies, including gram panchayats, mu16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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nicipal corporations and city councils, to take up the responsibility of revising flood control line after every five years and to set up an early flood warning system. But do such agencies have the capability to prepare flood management plans or set up early warning systems? This requires different sets of knowledge and skills, including analysis of past flood events in terms of frequency, extent of flooding and damages, flood forecasting and planning infrastructural and non-infrastructural flood control measures. Floods apart, the draft plan does not mention anything about drought management, even though the Marathwada region has been historically and repetitively facing droughts.

Procedural and data deficiency The draft plan does not throw any light on the methodology of plan preparation. The knowledge of methodology is vital to provide any suggestions on the draft plan. It does not provide any details about the problem analysis of basin or sub-basins. Though the draft plan lists various measures for each sub-basin, it does not provide any information about the basis of these measures. It does not specify the role and integration of various stakeholders, including government departments operating at the regional and local level, community organisations, private entities and basin inhabitants.

Additionally, the draft does not provide any information on the various scenarios imagined by the planners for future planning, considering the various factors—rapid urbanisation, change in land use patterns and weather changes.

Though the draft plan has many tables providing vital information, it neither provides any supporting information on the assumptions made nor the methods of calculation. For instance, while providing figures of water availability, the draft plan does not provide information as to how many rain gauges or discharge gauges were accounted for, what is the length of the time series of this data, which methods, models or techniques were used for calculating the runoff, and, how runoff has been predicted for 2030.

Without such critical information, it is not possible to understand and interpret these numbers.

The plan also has figures about the quantity of recycled water available for each sub-basin. However, it does not

The planners have not accounted for managing floods in the basin, even though the draft plan itself says that the Godavari river basin has 305 cities and 3,019 villages that are flood prone. It does not even mention drought management, even though the Marathwada region faces recurring droughts 16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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provide the source or the rational for quantification of recycled water for the reference year. Ditto for water demand calculations. For example, in the case of computing irrigation requirement, no information has been provided about cropping patterns, sources of irrigation and area under irrigated crop for the reference year.

Further, there is no mention as to how change in cropping patterns and land use patterns has been considered while calculating future irrigation requirements. The absence of such vital information raises questions about the validity of the numbers.

The draft has calculated the upper limit for groundwater use for each sub-basin as 70 per cent of annual groundwater recharge capacity, and accordingly it has suggested the additional quantity of groundwater that can be put to use by digging additional wells.

It has suggested the creation of 272,000 additional wells to tap the excess groundwater. However, the plan does not provide any rational for the figure of 70 per cent. How can it be assumed that it will remain the same across the entire basin, irrespective of varying surface water and groundwater interactions and aquifer characteristics? It also does not provide any figures on the actual annual groundwater recharge. Since actual annual groundwater recharge can be different from groundwater recharge capacity, without knowing figures of actual recharge, it is amazing how the plan can provide exact figures about number of new wells to be created. Such kind of planning might lead to overexploitation of aquifers.

Apparently, groundwater recharge has been measured in terms of the number of hectares of land covered under watershed development programmes. The assumption is once area is covered under a watershed development programme, it reaches to its annual groundwater recharge capacity. Such assumptions do not account the extent to which the watershed development work has actually been done on the ground, and more importantly, its quality.

The draft does not propose an action plan with concrete timebound measures. There are no indicators against which performance of plan implementation can be evaluated. Moreover, the plan lacks the details about operationlisation and budget. With such lacunas, the draft appears to be a mere gathering of information (which itself is insufficient). It is very difficult to digest that the draft has been produced by a state which has always been the forerunner in country in water management—whether it is the introduction of regulations, lake tapping or benchmarking of the water sector. If the state wishes to continue with the business-as-usual scenario, just to show to the Bombay High Court to get approval for new projects, then it is an altogether different story. ď Ž The author is with the Centre for Water Policy, Regulation and Governance, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai www.downtoearth.org.in 57

04/12/15 6:15 PM

LAST WORD

CIVIL LINES

R I C H A R D M A H A PAT R A

How not to sell a dream

2015 has many lessons for governance

T

HIS IS the last edition of Down To Earth in 2015.

It is always good to rewind developments after a certain period, in this case in a year. For this brings out trends or lessons that we usually don’t get to see while dealing with isolated developments. So, what does 2015 show us?

Before going into details, here are a few remarkable features of the outgoing year. First, when we entered 2015 with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was already seven months in power, he was still evoking hopes with his still-to-be-implemented development plan popularly known as the “Gujarat Model”.

Secondly, most of India’s key institutions were still in a state of flux. Thirdly, no newlyincumbent prime minister has been subject to such stringent scrutiny by civil society groups as well as independent experts and thinkers as Modi was and is. By the end of the year, the scrutiny was more of responses to various irrational rants from those in power. For Modi, who made direct communication with the people his key electoral strategy, the year gone by was a comparatively and selectively low communication phase. Barring his election meetings in India, he spoke more in meetings/conferences abroad. His development agenda simply turned into a slew of speeches without having a solid political and executive plan to roll out.

This tells us a lot about what the country can learn from 2015. The biggest lesson is that a dream should be sold as just that; not as an agenda of development. At best, dreams in real life can be interpreted as aspiration.

Modi, towards the end of 2014, let loose his “development dreams” at a frequency faster than his electoral promises during the general elections. And each of them smelt fresh and unusual due to the fact that a prime minister had taken up these issues. For example, no prime minister had taken up sanitation and cleanliness as a per-

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sonal and national agenda. The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan was a great development plan as sanitation inevitably impacts malnutrition, which is another national development agenda. He further gave a fresh lease of life to the financial inclusion plan by relaunching it as the Jan Dhan Yojana. He disbanded the Planning Commission and brought in a new institution. All of them were desirable and have flagship programme status in the government. But do they feel like dreams? No. Here is why.

His promised “minimum government and maximum governance” seems to have been clinically implemented by him and his government. Each of these development agendas has been launched like a campaign that has a dream-like aura. But none of them have been backed by a solid executive plan which is the role of a government. Within six months after the launch of the Jan Dhan scheme, headlines gushed that India had never seen so many people joining a government programme. A few months later, close to threefourths of the accounts had no TARIQUE AZIZ / CSE activity. Latest reports suggest people are withdrawing from this scheme.

Ditto for the sanitation campaign. As senior bureaucrats point out, this regime doesn’t know how to translate a governance campaign into a successful government programme to achieve the objectives. Sanitation coverage is still being treated as a toilet construction activity— much like the programmes in the previous rule. As far as the fabled Gujarat model is concerned, the corridors of union ministries are full with whispers that ask: where is that? With one scheme after another, it has become clear that whatever success Gujarat had claimed on various development programmes was due to maximum government led by an extreme chief minister, Narendra Modi.

In 2016, we hope that governance will be back on the agenda at the maximum level along with a desirable presence of the government. Happy New Year.  16-31 DECEMBER 2015

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