2020
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
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MARKET OUTLOOK 435 S Broadway St | Wichita, KS 67202 | 316.262.0000 | www.NAIMartens.com
AFTER A STEADY 2019, WHAT’S IN STORE FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE IN 2020? eal estate fundamentals will remain generally positive through 2021. While some key metrics may moderate, we expect no
major disruptions. The strides made in public and private development in the core area and the myriad of projects under eal estate or fundamentals remain generally positivehave through While some key metrics may moderate, we expect no major construction in planning will throughout the community been2021. impressive. The current economic development initiatives disruptions. The strides made in public and private development in the core area and the myriad of projects under construction and a more positive outlook bode well for the future. For Wichita to continue its momentum, it will need to see job growth or in planning throughout the community have been impressive. acceleration and a diversification of its economic base. The current economic development initiatives and a more positive outlook bode well for the future. For Wichita to continue its momentum, it will need to see job growth acceleration and a diversification of its In addition to the market summaries presented herein, there are a few trends of note that are expected through the end of the economic base. year and into 2020. In addition to market summaries presented herein, there are a few trends of note that are expected through the end of the year and • Transaction Volume to Remain Steady – The market may store closings. Retailers are reinvesting to achieve the into 2020. have peaked but activity and pricing has remained firm perfect omnichannel shopping experience for consumers. through mid-year. While all core sectors have performed addition, e-commerce increasingly shift to • Transaction Volume to Remain Steady - The market may have • InInvestment in Value-Add retailers Assets - will Demand for available and well, apartments remain the favorite open physical stores to grow theiroptions business retain more peaked but activity and pricing hasperennial remained investor firm through midaffordable workforce housing willand remain a topic withWhile increased interest among home investors. customers. year. all core sectors have mobile performed well; apartments of interest in the multifamily sector, as expensive land and the perennial favorite with–increased interest • Millennials development make it increasingly to build • remain Opportunity Zones investor Craze Will Persist Many investors andcosts Empty Nesters Continue difficult to Influence are onmobile the sidelines awaiting finalized guidance regarding Aging millennials now hitting their early among home investors. affordable housing from the ground up. 30s, the first phase the program.Zones The hunt for assets andinvestors investment millennialsand areEmpty lookingNesters at larger, more affordable homes • ofMillennials Continue to Influence - Aging • Opportunity Crazecontinues Will Persist – Many are opportunities in designated areas that present the strongest and access to schools. Empty nesters are gravitating to lowmillennials now hitting their early 30s, the first phase of on the sidelines awaiting finalized guidance regarding the upside potential. maintenance lifestyle communities. As a result, innovative program. The hunt continues for assets and investment millennials are at larger, more alternatives affordable homes single-family andlooking multifamily housing will • opportunities Industrial Demand to Continue is a manufacturing in designated areas– Wichita that present the strongest and access to schools. Empty nesters are gravitating to lowemerge. marketpotential. and as such is not characterized by a large inventory upside maintenance lifestyle communities. As a result, innovative of warehouse and or distribution facilities. Demand may • Investors to Continue to Look at Secondary and Tertiary single-family and multifamily housing alternatives will emerge. • Industrial to Continue –uses Wichita a manufacturing increase Demand from non-traditional suchis as e-commerce Markets – Commercial real estate investors will continue to market as industry. such is not characterized by a large inventory of • look Investors to Continue to Look Secondary and and theand CBD at burgeoning secondary and at tertiary markets forTertiary solid risk-adjusted returns andreal the estate trend isinvestors likely to will continue. Markets – Commercial continue to and or distribution Demand mayStores increase • warehouse Online Retailers to Open facilities. Brick-and-Mortar – look at burgeoning secondary and tertiary markets for solid from non-traditional uses such as e-commerce and the CBD Physical retail is far from dead despite the number of risk-adjusted returns and the trend is likely to continue. industry.
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE | 19
Office CHARTS
STATISTICS VACANCY RATE
19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2
NET ABSORPTION 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 -
$3 0.00
50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000
RENTAL RATES (FULL SERVICE)
$2 0.00 $1 0.00 $-
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 Class A Weighted Average Rent/Sq. Ft. Class B Weighted Average Rent/Sq. Ft. *Source: NAI Martens Research. Charts do not include medical office data. All 2019 figures are reflective of YTD 2019 numbers as of 8-23-19. **Full Service Leases
TRENDS WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2020
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VACANCY RATE
NET ABSORPTION
ASKING RENT
CONSTRUCTION
SALES ACTIVITY
LEASE ACTIVITY
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• Six buildings totaling 45,525 SF have been completed thus far in 2019, including Hayes Co. new 9,400 SF office in Delano, Kice Industries expansion in Park City, Icon Structures’ 13,825 SF office building near K-96 & 13th, Holmes Garci Advertising’s 5,000 SF building on 37th west of Ridge, Open Mortgage’s 3,300 SF building in the Estancia development near 37th & Ridge, and the 5,000 SF Mid American Credit Union at Kellogg & Oliver. • There have been 48 general office sales in 2019 with a total value of $39,734,764. • Net absorption in Wichita’s office market is positive so far in 2019 with a total of 214,544 SF absorbed. Notable lease transactions have been IMA Financial Group’s lease for the to-be built TGC Development building at Douglas & Emporia, and the lease of 89,800 SF in the Corporate Hills Office Building. • Office market vacancy rate 2019 YTD: • Overall: 14.6% • Class A: 12.2% • Class B: 15.9% • Weighted average asking rents in 2019 YTD: • Overall: $13.89/SF • Class A: $18.90/SF • Class B: $11.85/SF • Class A • CBD: $16.96/SF • Suburban: $21.20/SF • Class B • CBD: $12.02/SF • Suburban: $13.36/SF
Medical Office • Five medical office buildings totaling 109,989 SF have been completed in 2019 including the 70,000 SF Waterfront Rehab Center at 13th & Webb, the 20,170 SF Webb at 96 Plaza medical building, SF Mid-Kansas Ear, , 9,500 SF Nose & Throat Hearing Aid & Allergy Center in the Estancia development at 37th & Ridge, Eye Care Associates’ 6,000 SF building near 37th & Maize, and the 4,319 SF Montoya Family Practice near Pawnee & Rock Rd. • Current weighted average asking rate for medical office space is $17.18/SF (full service) with an overall vacancy rate of 9.08%. • Eight medical office buildings have sold for a total of $8,339,814.
ACTIVITY • Two office buildings are currently under construction. The 60,000 SF Spaghetti Works office/retail building with Martin Pringle as the lead tenant is under construction downtown and the Village Tours & Charters new 48,000 SF headquarters at K-96 & Ridge, which is a mixture of office, vehicle storage and repair space.
2020 OUTLOOK
The office market will see a slight improvement in rents and vacancies during 2020. While new construction is slow for the general office market, smaller projects as well as mixed-use projects still continue to be announced. Medical office will continue to see increased activity in a number of areas including the northeast and northwest quadrants, as well as Derby.
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Retail STATISTICS
CHARTS VACANCY RATE 12.50% 12.00% 11.50% 11.00% 10.50% 10.00% 9.50% 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2
NET ABSORPTION 2019 Q2 2019 Q1
2019 Q1
2018 Q4
2018 Q4
2018 Q3 2018 Q2 (100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
RENTAL RATES (NNN) $12.60 $12.40 $12.20 $12.00 $11.80 $11.60 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 *Source: NAI Martens Research. Charts do not include restaurant data. All 2019 figures are reflective of YTD 2019 numbers as of 8-23-19. **NNN Leases
TRENDS WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2020 VACANCY RATE
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LEASE ACTIVITY
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• Net absorption in Wichita’s retail market is positive so far in 2019 with 7,835 SF absorbed. Notable leases have been Trader Joe’s in Bradley Fair’s 14,000 SF space formerly occupied by Fresh Market and Floor & Décor in the 90,000 SF building at 9609 E Kellogg. • Retail vacancy rates for 2019 YTD: • Overall: 11.9% • Power Center: 1.7% • Hybrid (Lifestyle/Power): 8.3% • Lifestyle: 11.9% • Community: 19.0% • Neighborhood: 16.4% • Regional: 13.0% • Strip Centers: 13.9% • Urban Retail/Row Buildings: 8.2% • Four retail buildings totaling 100,450 SF have been completed in 2019 including Gander Outdoor and Gander RV near I-235 & Seneca, Twin Lakes – Huddle House strip center at 21st & Amidon, and the Duluth Trading Co. at Greenwich Place. • Thus far in 2019 there have been, 53 transactions totaling $42,969,296 have been completed.
Restaurants
• On the restaurant side a few projects have been announced. A Panera is planned to open in 4,200 SF at the Greenwich Place development. Meddys will build a new location near Kellogg & Ridge behind the recently opened Cracker Barrel and Cheddar’s. Chipotle is adding their sixth Wichita store at New Leaf Plaza - 21st & Amidon on the site of the recently demolished Payless ShoeSource building.
ACTIVITY
• Eleven retail buildings totaling 143,531 SF are currently under construction. Construction is nearing completion on the Delano Gate development near Kellogg & Seneca, as well as the Hilton Garden Inn Hotel commercial space at 401 E Douglas. Other retail buildings under construction include Michaels, Five Below, Famous Footwear, Saltgrass Steakhouse, and Dave & Busters all at Greenwich Place. REI, a major outdoor national retailer, plans to construct a new 20,000 SF building, also at Greenwich Place, and is expected to open in spring 2020. Other notable construction includes Kwik Shop’s 7,500 SF development at Kellogg & West which will include a Taco John’s and one other restaurant, and Hobby Lobby at Cadillac Lake – 37th & Maize. • The former Kmart at the Saddle Creek Crossing retail center near 47th & Broadway is being redeveloped. Construction is planned for Accent Lighting’s new 20,200 SF building at the Waterfront, which will offer 4,800 SF for lease.
2020 OUTLOOK
The retail market is not likely to see any major changes in 2020. Construction activity will remain slower, with the exception of a few growing areas around Wichita including Greenwich Place, Kellogg & Ridge and continued expansion of retail along North Maize Road. Lease activity, asking rent and vacancy rates are expected to remain steady.
NAI MARTENS
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE | 21
Industrial CHARTS
STATISTICS VACANCY RATE
7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2
NET ABSORPTION 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 (100,000)
2018 Q2
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
RENTAL RATES (IG) $5.10 $5.03 $4.95 $4.88 $4.80 $4.73 $4.65 $4.58 $4.50 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 *Source: NAI Martens Research. All 2019 figures are reflective of YTD 2019 numbers as of 8-23-18. **Industrial Gross Leases
TRENDS WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2020 VACANCY RATE
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LEASE ACTIVITY
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• There have been 68 industrial sales in 2019 with a value of $50,873,292. • Industrial vacancy rates for 2019 YTD: • Overall: 5.54% • General Industrial: 5.4% • R&D/Flex: 10.9% • Weighted average asking rents 2019 YTD: • General Industrial: $4.62/SF (Industrial Gross) • R&D/Flex: $9.26/SF (NNN) • Net absorption in Wichita’s industrial market is positive 136,011 SF so far in 2019. Notable lease transactions include the building at 2526 E 36th Cir N to Standard Beverage and Daltile at 2050 E Edwards. • Four buildings totaling 381,336 SF have been completed in 2019 including the 102,336 SF Michaelis Industrial Spec Building on north Webb Road, the 253,000 SF WinField United Solutions off of I-135 in Park City, Shuttle Aerospace in the Maize Industrial Park, and a 5,000 SF free-standing warehouse at 1207 S Washington.
ACTIVITY • Four industrial buildings are currently under construction totaling 196,310 SF, including the 48,000 SF Metal Pros building at 3900 S Norman, Roberts Concrete’s 13,000 SF building at 4151 S West, and a 35,000 SF spec warehouse in the Maize Industrial Park. • Two more projects utilizing the City of Wichita’s spec industrial building program have begun. Another 100,000 SF building is under construction at the Ironhorse Manufacturing Park, located near MacArthur & Seneca. In the northeast quadrant, work started on a 136,580 SF spec building located near 39th & Webb. Under the industrial spec building program, construction must begin within 120 days of approval and be completed within 15 months of the same date. If those timelines are met the property is eligible for a 95 percent ad valorem tax abatement for the first five years. • Also at Ironhorse Manufacturing Park, Cosmic Pet (formerly known as Hyper Pet) is planning an additional 100,000 SF building. The company already occupies a 103,000 SF building at the park.
2020 OUTLOOK
The industrial market in 2020 is expected to continue to improve. New spec buildings coming to the market will likely result in increased lease activity. The limited availability of quality space will have a positive effect on asking rents. Sales activity will remain steady, as will vacancy rates.
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Investment MARKET TRENDS • Despite rising occupancy rates in the manufactured housing sector, it is not anticipated that there will be much in the way of new development. The only current activity is an expansion of the Welcome Home community at 47th and Meridian. Notable sales in 2019 included the 199-space Lakeside Landing on S. West St. and Sleepy Hollow, an 89-space community near Southwest Blvd. & West St. There continues to be existing property investment sales opportunities along with the infill of available vacant spaces. Look for continued strong demand from investors with values lingering at or near the highs seen in 2019. • The multifamily market remains strong with steady new development as well as steady sales activity. Construction has been focused on the suburban areas in 2019, a contrast to recent years which saw hundreds of new units added to the CBD. The 348-unit Cottages at Crestview complex began leasing in the northeast quadrant, as did the 41 units in the Spaghetti Works building. Two apartment projects under development near Wichita State will add 234 units to the area. Additionally, construction is beginning on the 204-unit 225 Sycamore Apartments at the Delano Catalyst site. Notable multifamily sales in 2019 include the 253-unit Farmington Place Apartments on Ridge, the 192-unit Somerset Apartments at 2029 N Woodlawn and the 110-unit Conquistador Apartments near Rock & Lincoln.
Q3 2019
MULTIFAMILY
MARKET UPDATE
• Construction is getting ready to start on Wichita State’s 106-room Hyatt Place that will be located at Braeburn Square on the Innovation Campus. A 95-room Home2Suites by Hilton has been selected as the hotel flag for the Delano Catalyst site. TGC will break ground on the hotel next month and is looking to open in October 2020. The Wichita City Council voted to allow a 30-day first right of refusal to the DoubleTree by Hilton More information on investment Wichita Airport for a land lease and use agreement that would last until can be found in our 2069. The city was originally planning to grant the lease to developer Q3 2019 Multifamily Market Update. Mitesh Patel, who planned to construct a 90-room hotel before Available now on our website! concerns were raised about the first refusal. The hotel would be just north of the existing airport Hampton Inn. Finishing touches are being placed on the 131-room downtown Hilton Garden Inn – Commerce Plaza at Douglas & Topeka. Construction seems to have slowed on the Home2 Suites at 21st & K-96. • The Wichita Self Storage development at the former Johnson’s Garden Center site at 802 N Ridge is getting closer to completion and should be finished in the third quarter. Construction continues on the threestory U-Haul rental and self-storage facility located at 600 S Holland just west of Kellogg & Ridge. The facility will have more than 700 climatecontrolled storage units and 110 outdoor drive-up storage units. Dirt work has started on the Centennial American Properties at 13th & Maize and Kellogg & Webb. Each property will be three stories with 750 climate-controlled units with garage doors on both sides and a 30-foot drive through the building.
2020 OUTLOOK Multifamily
Construction
Sales Activity
Values
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MHC Hospitality Self-Storage NAI MARTENS
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE | 23
COMPREHENSIVE ON MARKETS SUBMARKETS COMPREHENSIVERESEARCH RESEARCH ON AND MARKETS AND THROUGHOUT WICHITA MSATHE WICHITA MSA SUBMARKETSTHE THROUGHOUT TThe h e M Martens a r t e n s C o Companies m p a n i e s p r o provide v i d e t r e n trends d s a n d and f o r e c forecasts a s t s o f r e n of t, rent, vacancy and inventory for Apartment, vacancy and inventory for Apartment, Office, Office, MedicalMedical Office, Office,Warehouse Retail, Warehouse/Distribution, Flex/R&D, General Retail, Distribution, Flex R D, eneral Industrial, and Industrial, and the major Aircraft Campuses. Because overall the major Aircra Campuses. Because overall metro averages metro averages often conceal significant variations from o en conceal to significant variations to neighborhood neighborhood, we from reportneighborhood on submarkets neighborhood, we report on submarkets across the Wichita metro across the Wichita metro and Derby. We develop trends and and Derby.from We develop trends and from forecasts property-level dataforecasts collected byproperty-level our team of data collected by our team of real estate analysts, and real estate analysts, advisors and appraisers duringadvisors telephone interviewsduring with building andwith managers, as welland as appraisers telephoneowners interviews building owners property tours andaspersonal Our team monitors managers as well propertyinspections. tours and personal inspections. the team localmonitors businessthepress and cross-checks our research Our local business press and cross-checks our against the perspectives of local brokers, developers and research against the perspectives of local brokers, developers and other commercial real estate professionals. This complete other commercial real estate professionals. This complete view of view of the market, including differing perspectives, provides the including differing perspectives, provides our clients our market, clients with valuable decision-making information. with valuable decision-making information.
HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME DATA, NOT JUST AN ANNUAL
SNAPSHOT REAL-TIME DATA, NOT JUST AN ANNUAL SNAPSHOT HISTORICAL, Reliablehistorical historicaltrends trends forecasts arecornerstone the cornerstone Reliable andand forecasts are the of any of any accurate market analysis. Celebrating our 70th year, accurate market analysis. Celebrating our 0th year, the Martens the Martens Companies have been working in commercial Companies have been working in commercial real estate in Wichita real estate in Wichita since 1948 and have been keeping since 1 databases and have been the real-time of thekeeping Wichitareal-time market databases since theofearly Wichita market since the earlyan 1 annual 0s. Weforecast have published an annual 1990s. We have published since 2001, but forecast since 2001, but there is no uicker way to get a detailed there is no quicker way to get a detailed picture of current and projected Wichita market conditions thanconditions reviewingthan our picture of current and projected Wichita market quarterly our market reports. reviewing uarterly market reports. ACCURATE,UP-TO-DATE UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ACCURATE, INFORMATION
For every submarket across the primary properties, we
For submarket across the primary current properties, we offer offerevery overviews of trends; describing conditions, overviews of trends; describing current conditions, asking rents, asking rents, notable construction projects announced and notable construction projects announced and completed, and sales completed, and sales and lease activity. Metrics analyzed and lease activity. analyzed include market distribution, composition, include market Metrics composition, submarket asking rents, vacancyasking absorption, inventory levels and new submarket distribution, rents, vacancy absorption, inventory construction. levels and new construction.
NAI Martens is the largest full-service commercial real
estate firm in Kansas. Founded in 1948 and headquartered NAI Martens is the largest full-service commercial real estate firm in Wichita, NAI Martens a vast array of in ansas. Founded in 1 provides and head uartered in commercial Wichita, NAI real estate services throughout south-central Kansas and Martens provides a vast array of commercial real estate services Topeka. NAI Martens is led by CEO Steve Martens, CCIM, throughout south-central ansas and Topeka. NAI Martens is CPM, SIOR and President Tom Johnson, CRE – two industry led by CEO Steve Martens, CCIM, CPM, SIOR and President Tom veterans with 80 years of combined commercial real estate ohnson, CRE – two industry veterans with 0 years of combined experience. commercial real estate experience. Commercial real estate services include brokerage, appraisal,
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NAI Global is a leading global commercial real estate brokerage local markets and work in unison to provide clients with firm. NAI lobal officestoare leaders in their real localestate markets and exceptional solutions their commercial needs. work in unison provide with exceptional solutions to NAI Global hastomore thanclients 375 offices strategically located their commercial real estate needs. NAI lobal has more than throughout North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa Asia Pacific, with over 6,000 local market 3and offices strategically located throughout North professionals, America, Latin managingEurope, in excess billion feetlocal of America, Africaofandover Asia1.15 Pacific, with square over ,000 property. Annually, NAI Global completes in excess of $20 market professionals, managing in excess of over 1.1 billion commercial estateNAI transactions throughout the sbillion uare in feet of property.real Annually, lobal completes in excess world. of 20 billion in commercial real estate transactions throughout the world. Sources: Bisnow, ULI, Real Capital Analytics, CCIM, CBRE Sources Bisnow, LI, Real Capital Analytics, CCIM, CBRE Global lobalResearch, Research,JPPMorgan MorganChase, Chase,JLL LLPropTech PropTech
In-depth trends and statistics can be found in our quarterly reports. 435 S Broadway St | Wichita, KS 67202 | 316.262.0000 | www.NAIMartens.com ©© Copyright 2019 NAI NAI Martens. Reproduction in wholeinorwhole part isor permitted only with theonly written of NAI consent Martens. of Some Copyright 2019 Martens. Reproduction part is permitted withconsent the written NAI of the information contained herein has been gatheredherein from sources deemed reliable. However, Martensreliable. makes no warrantiesNAI or Martens. Some of the information contained has been gathered from sourcesNAI deemed However, representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. or accuracy thereof. Martens makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness
24 | COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
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