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fter a year of anaemic returns in 2015, investors are understandably cautious heading into the new year. Critical to the overall market direction will be company profits, as they dictate share prices over the long run. Weak earnings in the last couple of years have contributed to the recent pullback in the market. Overall, Ord Minnett predicts that earnings per share (EPS) for the ASX200 will decline four per cent in 2016. This is being dragged down by the materials sector (including miners) where Ord Minnett predicts a 31 per cent decline in EPS, and also by Consumer Staples with a forecasted eight per cent drop in EPS. Intense competition among supermarket retailers and weaker commodity prices point to difficulties in the near-term. More positive results are expected in the industrials, utilities and energy sectors with a prediction that the EPS will rise by 17 per cent, 16 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. Now, to specific sector and company opportunities where Ord Minnett believes attractive returns may be found. Firstly, Ord Minnett remains positive on companies exposed to the burgeoning consumer society in China. Many of the companies are involved in food safety and quality. While a number of these stocks have run hard, Ord Minnett sees further upside: • Bellamy’s – offers a range of organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers • Blackmores – develops and markets health supplements and vitamins • Tassal Group – Tasmanian-based
company engaged in all aspects of Atlantic salmon farming and marketing • Vitaco – development, manufacture and distribution of nutritional products with exports to more than 30 countries. Secondly, Ord Minnett is positive on the tourism sector, which is experiencing significant growth thanks partly to an increasing number of Chinese visitors. Opportunities in this sector include Amalgamated Holdings (hotels), Flight Centre (travel agency), Sealink (tourism travel), Qantas and Village Roadshow (theme parks and cinema). Finally, with the US Federal Reserve likely to continue raising interest rates, Ord Minnett is still keen on select companies that may benefit from a falling Australian dollar: • Consumer – Aristocrat, Caltex • Financials – Macquarie Group, Magellan Financial • Healthcare – Cochlear, CSL, Ramsay and ResMed • Logistics and transport – Brambles • Paper and packaging – Amcor, Orora • Real estate – Goodman Group, Lend Lease, Westfield. As always, investors should maintain a diversified portfolio that is commensurate with their risk tolerance. Australian shares should likely only form part of your investment portfolio. Source: Ord Minnett Ltd Research. Troy Derwin is an Authorised Representative (no 435773) of Ord Minnett Ltd, AFS licence 237121. This article contains general financial advice only and does not consider your personal circumstances; you should determine its suitability to you. Before acquiring a financial product you should consider the relevant product disclosure statement. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Troy can be reached on 07-54304444.
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