Centennial Trust Quarterly Market Review - Q3 2023

Quarterly Market Review Q3 2023

MARKET REVIEW SELECTED MARKET INDICIES

RETURNS (%) Year To Date Global Stocks

US Stocks

Developed Intl Stocks

Emerging Market Stocks

Q3 2023

US Bond Market

12.4 9.4 6.0 3.4

-3.4

-3.3

MSCI All Country World IMI Index

Russell 3000 Index

-4.0 MSCI World ex USA IMI Index

-2.1 MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index

-1.2

-3.2

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

Disclaimer: Non-deposit investment products are not FDIC insured and are not guaranteed by the bank or any government agency. No n-deposit investment products are subject to investment risk and may go down in value.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Global Stocks (MSCI All Country World Index), US Stocks (Russell 3000 Index), Developed International Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index), Emerging Markets Stock (MSCI Emerging Markets Index) and US Bond Market (Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index). All index return s are net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2023, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Bloomberg data provided by Bloomberg

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MARKET REVIEW US EQUITY MARKET

RETURNS (%) Year To Date

US Large Core

US Large Growth

18.1

US Large Value

US Mid Core

US Mid Growth

US Mid Value

US Small Core

1.6

0.8

US Small Growth

Q3 2023 US Small Value

13.1 7.6

-3.3

-2.6

S&P 500

S&P 500 Growth

6.9

4.3

-4.1

-4.2

-3.2

S&P 500 Value

S&P 400

S&P 400 Growth

2.5 -0.8

-5.2

-4.9

-4.3

S&P 400 Value

S&P 600

S&P 600 Growth

-5.6 S&P 600 Value

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

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MARKET REVIEW DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKET

RETURNS (%) Year To Date International Core

International Growth

International Value

International Small

8.4

Europe

Q3 2023

Pacific

7.3

6.0

5.0

3.7

4.9

0.0

-3.5

-4.0

-7.9

MSCI World ex USA IMI

MSCI World ex USA Growth IMI

MSCI World ex USA Value IMI

MSCI World ex USA Small Cap

-2.4

-5.0 MSCI Europe IMI

MSCI Pacific IMI

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

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MARKET REVIEW EMERGING MARKET EQUITY

RETURNS (%) Year To Date Emerging Markets

Emerging Market Growth

Emerging Market Value Emerging Market Small

13.7

Asia Pacific

Q3 2023

Latin America

12.9

6.7

3.4

2.9 0.3

-2.1

1.0

-0.1

-2.9

-4.0

MSCI Emerging MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Markets Growth IMI

MSCI Emerging Markets Value IMI

MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap

MSCI Emerging Asia Pacific

-4.8 MSCI Latin America

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

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MARKET REVIEW COUNTRY RETURNS THIRD QUARTER 2023 INDEX RETURNS

50% 40% 30%

20% 10% 0%

Australia South Africa Spain Kuwait Philippines Thailand Canada Peru Saudi Arabia Brazil Korea Switzerland Taiwan Mexico Portugal Finland Sweden France Ireland New Zealand Germany Greece Chile Hong Kong Poland Netherlands

Global

-20%

Turkey Egypt Norway UAE Malaysia India Israel Denmark Hungary Czech Republic Qatar Colombia Japan Belgium Singapore UK China Italy Indonesia Austria US

-10%

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Country returns are the country component indices of the MSCI All Country World IMI Index for all countries except the United States, where the Russell 3000 Index is used instead. Global is the return of the MSCI All Country World IMI Index. MSCI index returns are net dividend. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2023, all rights reserved.

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MARKET REVIEW MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX WITH SELECTED HEADLINES FROM Q3 2023

1 Y EAR ( Q 4 2022–Q3 2 023) 380 Last 3 months

340 300

Q 3 2023

260 220 Sep 30

340

Dec 31

Mar 31

Jun 30

Sep 30

320

300

280 Jun 30

Jul 31

“Dow Notches Longest Win Streak since 2017”

“US Wages Rise More than 4% While Consumer Prices Increase 3%” “Turkey Agrees to Let Sweden In NATO”

“US New-Vehicle Sales Rise an Estimated 13% in First Half of the Year”

Aug 31 “Japan's Economy Grows at 6% Pace in Second Quarter”

“China Slips Into Deflation in Warning Sign for World Economy” “Fitch Slashes US Credit Rating to AA+ from AAA”

“S&P 500 Extends Winning Streak with Fifth Month of Gains”

Sep 30 30

“US Factory Orders Plunge in July after Four Straight Gains”

“US Stock Market’s August Losses Snap Monthslong Winning Streak”

“Wagner Chief Who Plotted Coup Presumed Dead in Russia Plane Crash”

“US Mortgage Rates Hit 7.09%, Highest in More than 20 Years”

“Bank of England Holds Rates Steady for First Time in Nearly Two Years”

“S&P 500 Suffers Biggest Monthly Loss This Year”

“Iran Releases Five Americans in Exchange for Frozen Funds” “Hollywood Studios and Writers Reach “UAW Strikes at Plants a Strike-Ending Owned by GM, Ford, Deal” Stellantis”

“Oil Climbs 1.8% to End at a 10-Month High”

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index (net dividends). MSCI data © MSCI 2023, all rights reserved. Index level based at 100 starting January 2000.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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MARKET REVIEW MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX WITH SELECTED HEADLINES FROM THE PAST 12 MONTHS

LO N G T ERM ( 2000–Q 3 2023) 400

300 200

S H O R T TE R M (Q 4 2 02 2–Q3 2023)

Last 12 months

100

360

0 2000

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

340 320 300

280 260 240 220 Sep 30

Dec 31 “China Braces for Deadly Covid Wave after Loosening Controls” “US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts to Deepest Level since 1981” “Sunak Wins Vote to Become UK’s Next Prime Minister after Truss Resigns”

“OPEC+ Agrees to Biggest Oil Production Cut since Start of Pandemic”

Mar 31

“US PPI Report Shows Producer Prices Rose, Pointing to Persistent Inflation” “CEOs Say They Expect a US Recession, but Most Think It Will Be Short” “Dow Closes 700 Points Higher on Signs of Slowing Wage Growth”

Jun 30

Sep Sep 30 30

“S&P 500 Starts a New Bull Market as Big Tech Lifts Stocks” “US Signals Support for Allies to Send Their F-16 Jets to Ukraine” “US Inflation Eased to 5% in March; Lowest Level in Nearly Two Years”

“Wagner Chief Who Plotted Coup Presumed Dead in Russia Plane Crash”

“S&P 500 Suffers Biggest Monthly Loss This Year”

“China Slips Into Deflation in Warning Sign for World Economy”

“US New-Vehicle Sales Rise an Estimated 13% in First Half of the Year”

“US Stocks Close Out Worst Year “Silicon Valley Bank Closed by Regulators;“Fed Holds Rates Steady but Expects More Increases” since 2008” FDIC Takes Control”

“UAW Strikes at Plants Owned by GM, Ford, Stellantis”

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index (net dividends). MSCI data © MSCI 2023, all rights reserved. Index level based at 100 starting January 2000.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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MARKET REVIEW

REAL ESTATE INVESTENT TRUSTS (REITS) THIRD QUARTER 2023 INDEX RETURNS

US real estate investment trusts underperformed non-US REITs during the quarter.

Ranked Returns (%)

Global ex US REITS

US REITS

Total Value of REIT Stocks

-4.48

-7.40

Period Returns (%) Annual ized

32%

68%

Global ex US $390 billion 285 REITs

US $844 billion 107 REITs

Asset Class

QTR

YTD

1 Year

3 Years

5 Years

10 Years

Global ex US REITS

-4.48

-8.16

2.30

-2.67

-3.22

0.41

US REITS

-7.40

-2.05

2.61

6.12

1.56

5.28

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance doe s not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. To tal value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones and S&P data © 2023 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

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MARKET REVIEW FIXED INCOME 10 YEAR US YIELD CURVE OVER TIME (%)

CHANGE IN US YIELD CURVE (%)

6.0

10.0 9.0

7.0

4.0

Yield (%)

Yield (%)

8.0

1/3/2023 9/29/2023 2.0

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0

0.0 1mo

3mo

6mo 1 Yr

5 Yr

10Yr

0.0 1990

30Y

1995

Years to Maturity

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Years

US YIELD CURVE (%)

5.55

5.60

5.55

5.61

5.53

5.46

5.03

4.80

4.60

4.61

4.59

4.92

4.73

1 Mo

2 Mo

3 Mo

4 Mo

6 Mo

1 Yr

2 Yr

3 Yr

5 Yr

7 Yr

10 Yr

20 Yr

30 Yr

Source: US Department of the Treasury. Information presented is as of end of quarter. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment.

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MARKET REVIEW FIXED INCOME

RETURNS (%)

Year To Date Marketwide

Treasuries

Investment Grade Credit

High Yield Credit

Q3 2023

Investment Grade Municipals

5.9

1.4

0.3 -0.3

-0.8 -1.9

Bloomberg US Aggregate Intermediate Bond Index

0.5

-0.7

-1.0

-2.6 Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Intermediate Index

Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Intermediate Index

Bloomberg US High Yield Bond Intermediate Index

S&P Intermediate Term National AMT Free Municipal Index

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

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