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AHEAD IRISH RACING COLUMN IS BACK INSIDE!

JULY 2013 ISSUE 105

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HORSES TO FOLLOW

MARK COTON TOP SYSTEMS

GOODWOOD UNBEATABLE TRENDS GUIDE TO A FANTASTIC FIVE DAYS INSIDE


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JULY 2013 EDITION rac ng BRITAIN’S NUMBER ONE RACING MAGAZINE

PAUL FERGUSON’S MIDSUMMER 10 TO FOLLOW IS ON PAGE 20

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JULY 2013 ISSUE 105

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04 SYSTEMS SPOT 05 JULY TRAINER AND JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW 08 PADDOCK PICKS BY ANDREW AYRES 10 MARK COTON: BEYOND VALUE 14 NEWMARKET REPORT 16 LARKSPUR WITH HIS SYSTEMS AND A LOOK AT THE INTERNET 20 PAUL FERGUSON’S MIDSUMMER 10 TO FOLLOW

24 IRISH RACING 28 OUT IN THE STICKS 34 GOODWOOD TOP TRAINERS 36 GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 15-YEAR TRENDS GUIDE 48 TALKING TWO-YEAROLDS BY IAN HEITMAN 52 YESTERDAY’S HEROES: SHERGAR 60 ON THE EXCHANGES WITH PETER WEBB

DON’T MISS THE AUGUST ISSUE OF RACING AHEAD – IN YOUR NEWSAGENT ON JULY 25 RACING AHEAD Office 113 Imperial Court Exchange Street East Liverpool L2 3AB Tel: 0845 638 0704 www.racingahead.net info@racingahead.net Subs & back issues

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graham@racingahead.net EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS Publisher: Anne Mullen Andrew Ayres Editor: Stephen Mullen Graham Buddry Photos: Julie Drewett Joe Conboy Paul Ferguson Advertising enquiries Tony Flannagan Graham Wright on John Francome 0845 638 0704 or email Jeremy Grayson

A WEEK or so before we went to press, the sad news of Sir Henry Cecil’s death sent racing into mourning. That phrase is used a lot – but in this case, the sport really has been wearing a black armband for a brilliant trainer. Yet Henry Cecil was much more than that. When the going was good – as it was for most of his career – he was never aloof, never unwilling to speak to the press and never gave the sense that he thought he was better than everyone else. That’s a lesson many lesser trainers could heed. He was the same when things weren’t going so well and that’s one of the reasons why it gave the whole sport of racing a huge boost when he returned to the top of the league, where he definitely belongs. Several of our team pay tribute to Henry this month and talk of his talent as a trainer but as much about what a nice man he was. I wasn’t lucky enough to meet him on a one-to-one basis but he still played a massive part in my formative years of betting. I was still a good four years away from being able to put a bet on legally when I noticed just how often these horses trained by HRA Cecil and ridden by S Cauthen were winning. One day in 1989 they teamed up for a fourtimer at a track I’ve forgotten but I think it was Yarmouth. That was the day I decided to do my first ever Lucky 15. What I do remember is my £1.65 (tax paid) turned into just under £40. I don’t think I have ever been happier at a winning bet. Thanks Sir Henry. STEPHEN MULLEN — Editor

Ian Heitman Steve Hughes Martin Jones Tony Keenan Larkspur Charlie McCann David Myers Peter Webb David Wilson Dave Youngman

Distribution: Inter-Media Printer: Mortons, Horncastle Opinions in Racing Ahead are those of the contributors and not necessarily the views of Racing Ahead Ltd. ISSN: 1743-551X


SYSTEMS SPOT

All hail King Ralph!

Beckett is one of the few major trainers you can back blindly and make a profit

Y

es we know it’s pronounced “Rafe” but why let that spoil a good headline, especially when you look at the profit margin from following the brilliant Mr Beckett. He sent out his first winner in 2000 and has been gradually improving his strikerate ever since, while also picking up ever bigger prizes along the way. Take his record over the past 10 seasons in all races: Year Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 2013 154 32 21% 54.11 65 42% 2012 386 64 17% -58.15 153 40% 2011 370 56 15% -49.92 136 37% 2010 403 70 17% 111.41 145 36% 2009 396 59 15% 85.08 133 34% 2008 343 43 13% -4.51 117 34% 2007 325 41 13% 105.33 110 34% 2006 263 31 12% -60.16 81 31% 2005 224 32 14% 134.67 70 31% 2004 216 17 8% 9.48 56 26% 2003 235 18 8% -98.32 51 22% And the total since 2003 in all races: Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 3315 463 14% 229.02 1117 33.70% So it’s seemingly as simple as back every horse Ralph Beckett sends out and you’ll make a profit. There aren’t many trainers who have around 400 runners per year that are in the same situation. Of course, we’re not suggesting you do that as you would have made a loss in two of the past three seasons. Instead, zone in on non-handicap races where Beckett’s

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

strike-rate is much higher and the profits are likewise. Here is the Beckett record in all non-handicap races since 2003. Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 1708 259 15.2% 408.52 619 36.24% That’s a better overall strike-rate and a much better overall profit to a £1 stake. Looking at the timeframe for non-handicaps, there has been an improvement in strike-rate in recent seasons:

Year Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% 2013 71 13 18% 4.63 32 45% 2012 184 30 16% -38.55 70 38% 2011 210 37 18% -8.04 90 43% 2010 227 45 20% 137.52 95 42% 2009 222 35 16% 71.13 77 35% 2008 195 26 13% 0.13 66 34% 2007 146 24 16% 179.37 56 38% 2006 117 12 10% -17.5 35 30% 2005 104 15 14% 91.17 33 32% 2004 118 13 11% 55.48 36 31% 2003 114 9 8% -66.82 29 25% You can cut down the number of bets and improve the strike-rate yet further by concentrating on the tracks where Beckett does best: Bet Win Win% £1 bet Plcs Plc% Southwell 30 10 33% 4.50 15 50% Pontefract 19 6 32% 5.36 10 53% Nottingham 67 18 27% 28.27 36 54% Kempton 178 45 25% 102 86 48% Epsom 28 6 21% 41.38 11 39% Yarmouth 15 3 20% -8.87 7 47% Ripon 10 2 20% -3.76 4 40% Wolver 74 14 19% -1.12 30 41% Ayr 11 2 18% -2.83 5 45% Chepstow 61 11 18% 14.56 22 36% Newm (Row) 67 11 16% 213.00 26 39% One big winner at Newmarket has skewed the profit column somewhat but there are enough tracks here to offer enough interest through the season. Nottingham seems to be a particularly fertile ground for Beckett runners in nonhandicaps, as does Kempton Park.

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FINDING WINNERS Libertarian

Follow Fanshawe’s filly

Andrew Ayres has been busy spotting future winners for his notebook WINDSOR May 20 (good) 1m67y Fillies & Mare Maiden (Class 5) Ordinary form ARAGOSTA (James Fanshawe) is a tall, attractive filly who was just about the paddock pick. She attracted late support but was unable to land a meaningful blow after being poorly placed and had to settle for third. This was an encouraging debut and she will win a race or two. SANDOWN May 23 (good) 5f 2yo Fillies Maiden (Class 5) Smart form SURVIVED (William Haggas) looks a proper sprinting 2yo and was heavily supported near the off having been easy to back all day. She travelled strongly before running green when asked to lengthen and lost nothing in defeat behind the useful, racesharp, Wind Fire. Survived went on to score easily at Lingfield on June 7 and is a smart prospect. GOODWOOD May 24 (good) 6

6f Handicap (Class 2) Muddling race WENTWORTH (Richard Hannon) oozed class in the prelims and only an illjudged ride from Richard Hughes (who sat behind horses and refused to pull wide despite it being obvious no gap would appear) prevented him from recording an impressive success. This lightly raced colt is particularly well treated and can hold his own at a higher level. GOODWOOD May 25 (good-soft) 6f 2yo Maiden (Class 4) Form already working out well EXTRA NOBLE (Ralph Beckett) has scope and looked in great shape, but spoiled that impression by moving moderately to post. However, that proved misleading as he moved smoothly into contention and only found race-fit Lanark too strong. This was a cracking debut effort and Extra Noble will win races. WINDSOR May 27 (good)

5f 3yo Handicap (Class 4) Small but competitive field INKA SURPRISE (Ralph Beckett) looked fit but seemed disengaged mentally in the prelims. Dropped in last after leaving the stalls, he was still travelling strongly at the furlong pole but lacked the speed to launch an effective challenge and didn’t really get involved. He’s better than this and will be a different proposition back over 6f. KEMPTON May 29 (standard) 6f 2yo Fillies (Class 5) Useful form BEWITCHMENT (Sir Mark Prescott) is an attractive, well-made half-sister to the classy Hooray. She was markedly green in the prelims and looked raw for much of the race, but flew home from the furlong pole and was a big eye-catcher in second. There’s much more to come from her and it would be no surprise if she progressed into a Listed/Group class juvenile. MANDERLEY (Richard Hannon) still


PICKS FROM THE PADDOCK looks leggy and a shade weak. That didn’t prevent her going off a heavily backed 11-8 favourite, but her supporters knew their fate early as she fluffed the start and was never travelling with any fluency. A staying on fourth at the wire, Manderley looks the sort to improve throughout the summer and will win races. 1m 3yo Handicap (Class 4) Competitive event PROPHETS PRIDE (Jeremy Noseda) has developed into a handsome colt and continues to impress in the paddock. His tendency to hit a flat spot manifested itself again at the two-furlong pole, but he came home strongly and managed to get up in the shadow of the post. This son of the top middle-distance horse Sakhee leaves the distinct impression he’ll improve when movedup to 1m2f and he’s still a step ahead of the handicapper. EPSOM May 31 (good-soft) Oaks Stakes 1m4f 3yo Fillies (Class 1) Fair renewal LIBER NAUTICUS (Sir Michael Stoute) was the clear paddock pick although she did go a shade freely to post. Perfectly positioned through the early stages, she was on the backfoot after failing to handle the downhill section of the track and could only plod into fifth in the straight. Connections seemed baffled by her tame effort and this classy looking filly deserves another chance. 7f 3yo Listed (Class 1) Muddling contest HASOPOP (Marco Botti) used to get fizzy before his races but stayed relaxed and looked in cracking shape here. Well supported near the off, he was given a weak tactical ride by Dane O’Neill – opted for the dreaded inside run before realising he had to switch wide – and did well to steam home a luckless third. He’s effective from 6-7f and can win a race at this level.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Liber Nauticus

EPSOM June 1 (good) 6f 2yo Listed (Class 1) Decent form RIVERBOAT SPRINGS (Mick Channon) looks a proper sprinting 2yo but was desperately outpaced early on and looked set to finish tailed off after struggling down the hill. However, he came home like a rocket (despite his rider showing little urgency until the furlong pole) and managed to snatch second close home. This was a tremendous effort and he will surely win a decent prize. Derby Stakes 1m4f 3yo (Class 1) Ordinary renewal LIBERTARIAN (Mrs Karl Burke) is a handsome colt who was a size bigger than most of his rivals. He lacked the tactical speed to sit handy, but really found his stride once in line for home and grabbed second at the line. He shapes as if farther

will suit – he may be a Cup horse in time – and will develop into a leading St Leger contender. MARS (Aidan O’Brien) looked in cracking shape but was hampered several times in the straight and could never really get involved at the sharp end. Sixth place underestimates his performance and connections will find a Group race for this handsome individual. SANDOWN June 6 (good-firm) 1m2f 3yo Maiden (Class 5) Competitive race DUCAB (Roger Varian) is a strong, wellmade half-brother to Group 1 filly The Fugue. He wasn’t razor sharp here and had plenty to do after missing the break, but travelled strongly to get into contention and looked set to score before being edged out by the promising favourite Testudo. Jockey Richard Hughes seemed impressed with

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PICKS FROM THE PADDOCK Ducab’s effort and he will win races over this trip. NEWMARKET June 8 (good-firm) 6f 2yo Maiden (Class 4) Decent contest L’IMPORTANTE (Marco Botti) was green but impressed as a strong colt with plenty of scope. He didn’t get the hang of things until late in the day but kept on well to finish an eye-catching sixth in what may be an above average event. There’s much more to come from him. WINDSOR June 10 (good-firm) 6f 2yo Maiden (Class 5) Fair form ICE SLICE (Richard Hannon) just needed the run on this debut but showed bright early speed and looked sure to be involved at the business end before drifting left under pressure. He kept on well to finish third though and is nailed on to win this summer. SALISBURY June 11 (good) 7f Maiden (Class 5) Ordinary form MUTHMIR (William Haggas) attracted support despite looking as if he would improve slightly for the run. Held up in rear, he stayed on steadily to finish fourth and will improve significantly for the outing. This full-brother to the useful Aneedah is sure to pick up a race or two. KEMPTON June 12 (standard) 1m3f 3yo Handicap (Class 4) Competitive, run at muddling gallop ALWILDA (Sir Mark Prescott) still looks a shade weak and, being stoutly bred, was unsuited by the stop-start pace of this race. Bearing that in mind, she did well to stick on into fourth and can leave this form behind granted a stiffer test of stamina. NEWBURY June 13 (good) 6f110y 2yo Maiden (Class 4) Race that will produce winners PEARL SPECTRE (Andrew Balding) is an attractive, slightly leggy individual who travelled strongly into the race at halfway. He ran green and got tired in the closing stages but still managed to hang on to second and is clearly above average. He will win a similar race. SHOWPIECE (Richard Hannon) looked in good shape and attracted a welter of support. However, he totally lost his pitch in mid-race and looked set to finish tailed-off. It is to Showpiece’s credit that he rallied strongly to finish third and he will be a different proposition next time. SANDOWN June 14 (good-firm) 8

Mars

5f 2yo Maiden (Class 5) Ordinary contest BUSHCRAFT (Ed Walker) is a strong 2yo type who moved well to post. He overcame a difficult draw to sit prominent throughout and kept on well to finish third. He wasn’t fully fit here and is worth supporting in a similar race next time. 7f 2yo Maiden (Class 5) Fair contest STREET FORCE (Clive Brittain) was colty and green in the prelims and looked as if the run would bring him on both mentally and physically. He looked clueless for much of the race too, but made good late progress to finish fourth and clearly has ability. There are races in him proved he isn’t aimed too high. DULLINGHAM (Saeed Bin Suroor) looked as if would improve for the run and ran green when asked to quicken. There were definite signs of promise though and he should improve markedly for the outing. 7f 2yo Maiden (Class 5) Fair form DIAPENKO (Brian Meehan) is a strong, sturdy type and moved smoothly to post. Green through the early stages, he

was bumped several times before finishing strongly to snatch second. He’s much better than this and is sure to win races.

A-Z of Paddock Positives

ALWILDA (Sir Mark Prescott) ARAGOSTA (James Fanshawe) BEWITCHMENT (Sir Mark Prescott) BUSHCRAFT (Ed Walker) DIAPENKO (Brian Meehan) DUCAB (Roger Varian) DULLINGHAM (Saeed Bin Suroor) EXTRA NOBLE (Ralph Beckett) HASOPOP (Marco Botti) ICE SLICE (Richard Hannon) INKA SURPRISE (Ralph Beckett) LIBER NAUTICUS (Sir Michael Stoute) LIBERTARIAN (Mrs Karl Burke) L’IMPORTANTE (Marco Botti) MANDERLEY (Richard Hannon) MARS (Aidan O’Brien) MUTHMIR (William Haggas) PEARL SPECTRE (Andrew Balding) PROPHETS PRIDE (Jeremy Noseda) RIVERBOAT SPRINGS (M Channon) SHOWPIECE (Richard Hannon) STREET FORCE (Clive Brittain) SURVIVED (William Haggas) WENTWORTH (Richard Hannon)


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rect Racing’s members. The racing club was launched early last year and basing all their horses with O’Meara has proved something of a master stroke with the club’s horses taking their members racing with great regularity and enjoying winners at tracks such as Doncaster, Leicester and York this year. The club’s success has inevitably meant Direct’s white and green silks are becoming well known, and David feels their success story is just beginning “They have a very straight forward approach and ensure as many members can get racing as possible. We’re planning a day at the stables for members soon and should enjoy a strong second half of the year as I feel all their horses are capable of winning races.” At present it seems just about anything O’Meara runs is capable of success and the punter-friendly trainer should continue to pay to follow as he continues to achieve remarkable results with impressive regularity.

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BEYOND VALUE 

A genius who knew what mattered

Mark Coton pays his own tribute to Sir Henry Cecil as we begin at the end of this month’s column 11 June

It is a mark not of the limitation but of the immensity of genius that it invariably accomodates what the standardised world perceives to be flaws. Genius reconciles opposites in a manner many cannot bear to comprehend, as in the life of Sir Henry Cecil, who was born into the aristocratic class yet was a man of the people, and whose defining achievements arose in a period of great personal vulnerability, when a high proportion of the immaculate boxes at Warren Place were empty, and many believed, with a measure of satisfaction which betrays them, that he had “gone at the game”. “We’re not losers you know,” was the uncharacteristically curt response to an illjudged question about self-doubt as Cecil stood proudly in the Epsom unsaddling enclosure after Light Shift’s famous win in the 2007 Oaks, the answer revealing once again that steel among the roses and the toy soldiers which never deserted him, nor that sense of style, as if life ought to be lived on a line in which the immaculate borders the absurd, to be saved by a sense of humour, by courage and compassion, and by an unfailing generosity and hospitality. It must have been around twenty years ago when I arrived early at the July Course ahead of the second day of the summer

10

meeting. I carried a drink towards the tables under the trees close to the pre-paddock. There was hardly anybody else around, but the elderly couple nearby had such a glow around them, I asked if I could join them. They were from Dudley, which is not so far from home territory at this end, and had recently retired from the working life in the factories of the West Midlands. They had been to the gallops early that morning because they wanted to watch Henry Cecil’s horses at work. When the gallops were over they plucked up the courage to say good morning to Mr Cecil and to tell him how much they had appreciated being able to see his wonderful horses at such close quarters. Immediately an offer was received to visit the stables at Warren Place for a full tour, including the rose garden, and to stay for breakfast. Hours later, the couple could hardly believe they had been granted such an unforgettable experience. To be made to feel so welcome by the great trainer. “Can you believe it?” they kept saying, as if such experiences should not come the way of ordinary folk like they. In fact the opposite is true, and such people are the most deserving, as the ten-times champion trainer, now no longer with us in the racing game, instinctively understood.

17 May

Being granted the chance to talk about music, of all kinds, from “Tracks Of My Years” to “Private Passions”, invariably brings out the best in people, though there is an exception on tonight’s “In Tune” on Radio 3. Asked by the enthusiastic young female presenter to reflect upon “the buzz” at a recent music Festival, a classical pianist is at a loss for words. Wonder at first if there is a language barrier, then a polite, if distinctly frosty reply, arrives to the effect that “the buzz” is perhaps not the quality most desirable in a musical gathering of this kind. Nothing wrong with a direct, engaged, enthusiastic contact between audience and performer, affording a depth and quality of appreciation, but let’s not allow our excitement to run away with us. Quite.

21 May

Simon in the launderette is finishing the last of the day’s service washes. A chef’s apron in stripes of white and blue is folded away into a bag. I ask him how business has been and he gives me the look of a man who has let one go unbacked in the 3.45 and just been informed that it dotted up at 3-1.




MARK COTON “People are finally waking up to the fact that they haven’t got any money,” he observes. Cynics to a pair, we agree it is therefore a better time to be running a gambling business than one dealing in life’s unglamorous necessities, just as it always has been and maybe always will be, though the goalposts are shifting so fast in the betting business that surprises surely lie in store.

22 May

It is said that history is a narrative written by the winners, one among whom was probably the first to point out that “it is tough at the top”. Only it isn’t. It’s tough at the bottom. (Observation prompted by the news that outgoing Health Service boss, (the inevitably knighted) David Nicholson, is to retire into the bosom of a £2 million pension. Sir David was in charge of the Mid-Staf-

fordshire Hospital Trust between 2004 and 2006, during part of its notably troubled period. Even “The Daily Telegraph” is exercised by this latest example of “reward for failure”.)

23 May

A visit to Goodwood, for the first time in years, for a reunion of the once-youthful body of men employed by Peter Jones to work in his ground-breaking “Trainers Record” publishing operation nestling in the Dorset hills. Meet Mel Collier on the platform at Clapham Junction, looking unchanged from the days when he’d be sorting them out in the Pricewise chair at the Racing Post. We interrupt the conversation to reflect upon the insistence in the nearby digital readout that passengers for our part of the journey need to be in the rear four coaches of the train. We’re in the front four.

It was always this portion of the train for Chichester (and Goodwood) in the old days and the ticket collector confirms we’re good, though technology remains adamant we’re not. To back man or the machine? Late doors, a stream of smartly-suited racegoers starts to snake its way along the aisle. One down to the machine, which I’ve never trusted, though Mel takes a more measured position. A taxi to the track, shared with an investment banker. We try to find some common ground between our two professions, if this be the word, then the banker asks about the actual ground, if it might change and how this is likely to affect calculations, predictions, outcomes. I glance at the skies, still bright, though with a few bruised thunderclouds heading in from the north, and suggest there is

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11


MARK COTON unlikely to be any significant change in the going. If you are going to put somebody away, it might as well be a banker. (There will be significant change in the going after the downpours commence shortly before we have found our way to the Sussex Stand). As mentioned before in this column, my first job in racing was with Trainers Record, a Dorset-based publishing company founded by Peter Jones, and no better grounding in the basics of the form side of the business could have been secured. In those days Trainers Record was one of a number of independent outlets, offering a different and often highly intelligent take on the sport, before the corporate ethos muscled in and levelled out the field. (Superform and Aesculus Press are two more names which spring to mind). It’s good to find Peter and wife Liz in excellent form and the hospitality generous. The box is soon full of serious racing faces, including two former editors of the Racing Post, and John McCririck, who is one of the few to brave the weather out on the balcony. I fire him up by mentioning Zafonic, his great coup in the 1990s, flagged up months in advance on the television. “Nothing would have beaten him that day. He’d have kept tabs on Frankel, wouldn’t have let him get away, I’m sure of it,” he argues, vehemently, as only he can.

24 May

Yesterday was a day for circling back to beginnings in more ways than one. A full-page colour advertisement on Page 5 of the Racing Post finds Betfair promoting the Yankee. (Place one at Goodwood, we’ll throw in a second for free at Sandown later on). That’s right, Betfair, instigators of the brave new world of the exchanges, promoting the great standby bet of the offcourse bookmaking business. It so happens that promoting the Yankee was my first job in the marketing department at Ladbrokes, in early 1986. Big efforts had been made over the previous couple of years to bed in the Lucky 15, a multiple bet which added four singles to the Yankee’s core structure of six doubles, four trebles and a four-timer (with a double odds bonus on the single should only one pick oblige), but the bean counters had decided the singles provision was insufficiently profitable and the instruction was to go back to basics by dusting off the Yankee. (If a reason was required to justify your

12

The C4 racing team thrusting along, with one S Holt included this time

to change, it would be wrong to read too much into the somewhat disappointing early viewing figures, but it can hardly have helped that they kicked out the characters. The unpredictable sorts who were sometimes inclined to speak out of turn. A publicity shot of new presenters sees them fanned out in two diagonal lines behind Clare Balding, like a group of aspiring executives from a home counties estate agency, dutifully decked out in the company purple and black, eagerly awaiting the chance to show us around the semidetacheds. Individuality is spun by the odd jacket around the shoulder or tie askew, disturbingly so in the case of Graham Cunningham who looks as if he’s got his caught in an invisible lift door. The PR pitch would seem to be a catchall attempt to show they’re at one and the same time a diverse and happy bunch of fun-loving individuals who can yet be relied upon to sing from the same hymn sheet, with the possible exception of Jim McGrath who looks as if he’s arrived late for a lesson at a new school and found the desk at the An interesting enough feature in the front of the class has already been taken by Racing Post these last two days on the new a keen lad who always gets his homework in on time. Channel 4 racing service. (Symbolically or otherwise the photo In a business which is invariably hostile

existence in marketing – as it often was in those days when it was still illegal to encourage gambling – the Yankee was your first port of call. A great snappy name, a sensible level of selections and highly profitable, given that any one loser wipes out 63% of the bet at a stroke). Quite what is disclosed in this business decision at Betfair is a matter for speculation, but it surely suggests the big men believe they have taken the exchange side of the business as far as it can go, for now. Maybe the small exchange punters – “the sprats fed to the sharks” as one insider put it at Goodwood – have run out of money, or enthusiasm, or both. Quite how they will react to being offered a free Yankee – the bookies bet par excellence – remains to be seen, but the fact that Betfair are hoping to direct new punters down this well-trodden path instead of the supposedly more thrilling and adventurous route of the exchanges, suggests their executives are now cut from standard bookmaking stock.

25 May




BEYOND VALUE The race had looked a fascinating one on paper beforehand but even allowing for the considerable improvement the winner Ruler Of The World surely has in him, the abiding impression was that were we viewing not so much to a non-vintage renewal, as a bottle of discount Cava kept open a day too long in the fridge. No challengers from the big British yards and only three altogether, including second-placed Libertarian, working through late having failed to find an early rhythm.

4 June

lacks the reassuring presence of Simon Holt. Perhaps he’s still glancing at the expulsion notices on the staff door, in the vain hope it isn’t true).

26 May

Long-standing Ladbrokes employee Andrew Iacovou has been murdered in a betting shop in Morden, a terrible reminder of the risks run by the staff in the betting shops, who are often now required to work alone, late at night, and without the protection of a security screen at the counter. It is something we might care to reflect upon, the next time we are hustling for a price just before the off call for the 3.15.

1 June

Those bookmakers spinning out cashback offers should Dawn Approach win the Derby, shrewdly predicated on the basis he was surely at least a shade of odds against to get the trip, knew they would not be paying out after less than a furlong, after the 2,000 Guineas winner settled as badly as an ill-tempered child at the start of a holiday journey. The best way to get a non-stayer beat is to set a slow pace, as the conventional wisdom has it, yet the stayers were still able to pull through at the finish of the great race.

It is necessary to come around to the vexed matter of the betting shop pen. Pick one up from table or holder and it’s not much shorter than a 5-2 shot that it works. Around 11-8 that you are able to write out your instructions before it gives up the ghost. Neighbour Bob’s answer to the frustration places him in rare, exalted company – he uses his own fountain pen. His preferred bet is a Lucky 15 chock-full of inventive outsiders. Sometimes we share the racing paper and I find myself staring at his marks wondering from where on earth he finds these horses. Once he laced together a memorable trio of winners at 40-1, 33-1 and 15-2 and found his confidence growing as his final pick shortened at all rates from 20-1 to 7-1. Shortly before the off he realised that this wasn’t a sign of the clever money going down, rather that the bookmaker in question was hedging against their considerable liabilities on his bet. (The horse didn’t win, though there was a damned good pick-up from the three which did.)

7 June

When a non-bowling club cricketer, perhaps an elderly opening bat, is asked to turn over a portly arm in the nets or a practice match, what emerges is sometimes described as “filth”. No more appropriate expression can be found for the majority of the bookmakers’ television advertisements. The slovenly and bizarre offerings of the Paddy Power and Victor Chandler operations currently lead the way, if that be the term, but others are comfortably into the long handicap. Particularly vulgar on the eye and the ear and the afternoon enjoyment are those offerings which ambush into the editorial

coverage like an ill-mannered neighbour wanting to borrow your barbecue when you were hoping for a quiet half-hour in the garden. “As for how long it lasts, well, it lasts as long as it lasts,” was the dismissive line from William Hill presenter Kate Miller about some offer or other last week, tossed out like a waitress describing a daily special which has been left too long in the oven.

8 June

A picnic in the centre of the course this evening at Stratford, with long-standing racing friends John and Karen, the car parked just along from the last fence. It’s popular on this side, not least with families. The children running and kicking a ball around as dad tries to pick a couple out from the paper. A dog running occasionally loose but nobody inclined to make a fuss about it in the early evening sunshine. Impressed by the facilities. There’s an bright and welcoming cafe/bar and a bookies at the back of the building. Tote windows and six board bookmakers doing a swift trade trade for the small money. A Placepot combination looks good after surviving the second leg, a seven-runner race in which a 7-1 beats a 12-1, only to be scuppered by a last-fence accident to Anquetta in the big handicap chase. What a fine bet the Placepot is, casting the interest across the breadth of the card, testing the judgement and the strategy (built around being on the right side of that unexpected result in the 6.45). It pays over a grand for a £1 line, which cuts in sharp along with the north wind. (Alwaystheoptimist is one to follow after his tidy success in the 2m handicap chase (8.45). There is plenty of room for improvement in his jumping and he clouted the final open ditch so hard you could hear the snap of flesh on birch from more than a hundred yards away. To his great credit Kielan Woods sat tight and the horse quickly regained his rhythm, led again at the second last before clearing way for an impressive success. Lightly-raced over fences and much more effective in this sphere than over hurdles, the winner was completing a fine double for trainer Phil Middleton after the success of Sail And Return here the previous evening.)

13


NEWMARKET REPORT

We’ve lost a great man Dave Youngman with his personal tribute to Sir Henry Cecil

W

ith the passing of Sir Henry Cecil for me Newmarket will never quite seem the same again. I had known him since the 1960s when I first ventured to Newmarket as a shy young lad. Henry was always very welcoming and kind to me whenever I was at his stables. I remember back in 1984 when we were looking at unraced juvenile colts saying to him that one will win you your first Derby next year. That horse was SLIP ANCHOR, how pleased I was to see it win unchallenged under Steve Cauthen for the master of Warren Place in the 1985 Epsom Classic. I first got to know Henry when I was at the stable with the legendary trainer Noel Murless, he married Noel’s daughter Julie. Henry was a “touch trainer” who trained by instinct. He was like Murless, he knew his horses inside out and most importantly, he had great patience with his horses, gave them time to develop and mature before asking too much of them. He let his horses tell him when they were ready to go into stronger work and then race. Sir Henry’s horses were like himself – elegant, languid and well turned out. The racing public knew his horses were always there to do their very best, and he was loved for his genuine approach to the game. I treasure the times spent with him chatting about his horses, he could roll off horses pedigrees so easily, such was his dedication to his art. He enjoyed the loyal patronage of many wonderful owners over the years, Prince Khalid Abdullah and the Niarchos family were still leading owners at the finish of his

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

life. The stable will continue until at least the end of the season under his widow, Lady Jane. Henry has left a good team at the yard, so she will get plenty of assistance. In Mike Marshall, Lady Jane has a first class assistant. Mike started his racing career as an apprentice jockey with Ian Balding, riding thirty winners, he then went to Major Hern, then to Godolphin before finally around six years ago becoming assistant to Henry at Warren Place. There is still a lot of unraced talent at the yard waiting in the wings to come out onto the racecourse. RINGS OF SATURN is a lovely Galileo colt that will do well when he is unleashed and the unraced colt named METEORIED owned by the Niarchos family has been impressing me very much in his work out on the gallops. Clare Fortescue tells me the Betfair Newmarket charity open day is to be on Sunday September 22nd this year and I hope as many of you as possible will make the

journey to support it. Ed Dunlop and Luca Cumani amongst others will have their stables open that morning and horses will be cantered up Warren Hill. Many other activities will be taking place during the rest of the day, all we need is a lovely day for it all. Trainer Roger Varian has some nice unraced juveniles. ALMASHOOQA, a lovely filly by Dubawi owned by Sheikh Hamdan, has been impressing me a lot in her work out on the gallops. She is forward enough to be a leading filly by the end of the season for the Kremlin House yard. JOIN MY PRIVATE SERVICE Join for the rest of the season – 4-6 bets a month plus monthly newsletter for just £250. Send a cheque, phone number and email address to me at. DAVE YOUNGMAN, P. O. BOX 2247, CLACTON ON SEA ,ESSEX, CO15 1EQ

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FINDING WINNERS 

Systems are still a work in progress

Ruler Of The World

Larkspur is building from solid foundation in the hunt for regular profits

I

receive a lot of emails in relation to the systems and methods that I write about. The usual stock answer is that all of the selections processes are works in progress and it is a matter for the individual whether to revise and adapt rules to suit their own selection preferences. This is not intended as a glib response. I have gone on record many times, and stated quite openly, that I do not think there is anything remarkably original about my methods. Horse racing systems tend to follow well-established sets of rules and we can only build on what has gone before in order to try to improve the winners’ ratio. A recent communication from the ‘Russian Linesman’ was concerned with the best trainer/jockey stats to use when determining the top handler or rider at any particular racecourse. This brought about a particularly interesting exchange and a race result that is a warning to anybody who thinks that they are on to anything resembling a racing certainty. In response I described how to use the Racing Post website statistics for each course featured in the ‘Tomorrow’s Cards’ section to determine who is the top jockey or trainer at any particular track. The ‘Russian Linesman’ was particularly interested in the all-weather meeting the next day at Southwell and I noted the following about the Southwell card: 16

1) The stats for the meeting from the ‘Tomorrow’s Cards’ page showed Joe Fanning as the winning-most jockey at Southwell with 86 wins from 385 rides (22%), but Dane O’Neill had 20 wins from 73 rides (27%) and had earned a profit of +£51.36 compared to Joe Fanning who showed a loss despite his winning-most position in the table. 2) Clicking on Dane O’Neill gave the option to bring up his 3 ‘booked rides’ at Southwell. The only one that earned a Larkspur top-rating was due to run in the 3.50: LA ESTRELLA (32 points) owned and trained by Don Cantillon. 3) The ‘Spotlight verdict’ advised that

LA ESTRELLA was 13 wins from 13 runs at Southwell. An incredible track record. 4) Clicking on LA ESTRELLA brought up his race record and clicking on ‘Wins’ advised that the horse was 20 wins from 28 runs on the all-weather surfaces. In conclusion we had a horse that was forecast the Even-money favourite, was a multiple course winner with an unbeaten record to boast, ridden by arguably the top course jockey, tipped by Spotlight and no fewer than 11 other tipsters. The closest thing you might think to an ‘ideal candidate’ that you could possibly get. The only negative was the fact that the




LARKSPUR horse hadn’t run for 126 days after picking up an injury on New Year’s Day. Now, regular readers will know that the statistics show that 75% of all winners have run within the last 28 days. The length of time was a huge negative for La Estrella but doubly so due to the fact that he had been injured. The race was only contested by five runners and La Estrella was sent off the 10/11Favourite in a bid to win the race in question for the third year running. He wasn’t a ‘Dead Cert’ in case you were wondering as he was forecast at Even-money and not odds-against. La Estrella was beaten 10 lengths into third place. So what went wrong? Don Cantillon told the press: “It’s a bit of a mystery but there were no excuses. He’s won the race for the past two years so it wasn’t the trip. The main thing is that he’s come back fine.” A bit of a mystery… That’s racing and the reason why the game leaves us all scratching our head at times. Anyway, if it was that easy then Aidan O’Brien wouldn’t have multiple entries in Group races. It isn’t just tactical secondstring-no-hopers that Ballydoyle put into the races, it is the fact that sometimes these horse racing things are not that easy to predict. That brings us nicely to the ‘Dutching with Curtis’ series which I wrote about last month.

Method gave 41 winners (21%) and losses to level stakes of 22% which meant that the returns were £1,551.69 a loss of £438.31. In the circumstances I don’t think that this is a bad effort for any system. I never claimed that I would find every winner but one winner in five on such trappy cards isn’t that bad, surely? But you can be rest assured that I won’t be chasing the Jackpot every racing day in future. ‘Stopping at a Winner’ with the Larkspur selections gave 24 winners from 119 selections a strike rate of 20%. This appears to be at a bit odd, with the strike rate being less than the total selections, but the losses were reduced to 17% with £991.24 returned from stakes of £1,190, a loss of £198.76. In my defence, subscribers to my FREE newsletter can vouch for the effectiveness of ‘Stopping at a Winner’. As of Saturday 1st June (Derby Day) the newsletter has given 19 winners from a total of 88 selections (22%) for a level stakes return of 115% on the television races since

we started up again at the beginning of March. When we ‘’Stop’ at a winner we have found 11 winners from 37 races, a strike rate of 30% and level stakes returns of 167%. The races at the weekend are better class affairs and I think that is one of the reasons why we seem to get improved results. And what of the ‘Dutching’ series? Well, I was a little surprised that in the qualifying races the 25 winners from 53 races (47% strike rate) achieved a loss of 6%. £530 was wagered (again notional £10 stakes) and £495.65 returned. This was ‘Stopping’ at a winner again, but the results were poor compared to the small trial that I undertook last month. But then I looked at the results and the methodology a little closer. Remember, the whole point of the ‘Dutching’ exercise is to realise the same profit whichever horse wins. Now, when you get short priced horses Thunder Strike

Dutching with Curtis

I did receive a number of emails wondering if I had gone a bit crazy taking on the Tote Jackpot meetings in May before any semblance of sanity had crept into the formlines. To be fair, I thought that I had lost the odd marble or two as the month drew on. The results of the series were not spectacular, which isn’t a great surprise when one considers that on some days there were cards with eight races which included up to four maidens and the odd 3yo handicap thrown in for good measure. Fred Done and the Tote were making sure that it was going to be tough. Having said that, the total Larkspur selections in all races – including maidens and 3yo handicaps, and one rogue Jumps meeting at Fontwell – came to 199 (there were 19 non-runners). A notional £10 stake on each runner gave stakes totalling £1,990. The Larkspur

17


LARKSPUR the profit potential is dramatically reduced. For example, on 29th May 2013 at Nottingham, Jofranka was a winner in the first ‘Dutching’ qualifier at odds of 5/6F and the £5.82 staked returned £10.67. A return of 67 pence… Now this is akin to backing a horse at odds of 1/10, which is fine if we are talking about Frankel. Or is it? By my reckoning we should be looking to at least double our money with the ‘Dutching’ selections which is the same return as an Even-money bet. In order to achieve this figure the lowest permissible odds for each horse is 5/1. It works out as follows: Each horse is backed to a £3.33 stake and a winner returns 5 x £3.33 plus the original £3.33 stake = £19.98. We’ll call it 20 quid – so you will double your money. Applying this logic to the ‘Dutching’ series gave the following results: There were 5 winners from 12 qualifying races. The returns were £140.08 to £120 in total stakes. A level stakes return of 117% or a profit of £20.08. Much better. Conclusion: The ethos of ‘Stopping at a Winner’ would appear to hold sound. Yes, you do miss out on winning bets but you also forego a lot of losers into the bargain. If you have a winner at decent odds at the beginning of the day – ‘Stop’. Come back tomorrow and start over again. As for ‘Dutching’ my enthusiasm from last month’s article hasn’t entirely diminished but it is relatively hard work keeping on top of the game especially when there are nonrunners, and just like ‘Stopping at a Winner’ you have to be in a position to get your bets on, and for those of us with the day job it is just not possible to do this. However, I will maintain – until the results from my newsletter prove otherwise – that to ‘Stop’ at a winning selection is a sound basis for improved profitability, and I will go ‘Dutching’ at meetings like Royal Ascot where there are bigger fields and decent priced horses to boot.

NETWATCHING

I did promise to look at a system for picking longer priced winners using a pocket calculator. However, the ‘Dutching’ series and a family holiday – yes I did still get the ‘Dutching’ Blog written much to Mrs Larkspur’s consternation – put paid to that but

18

T

I will seek to give decent column inches to this next time around. In the meantime let us look at another of our internet ‘freebies’ and this month it is the At the Races website and their ‘DRAW CHECK’ feature. For each racecard there are a number of ‘utilities’ offered on the website. These include a Race Predictor that uses data to forecast the race outcome, a Form Scan that offers direct and indirect form comparison, and the ‘Draw Check’ feature. The ‘Draw Check’ feature offers an at-aglance guide to any draw advantage. The example above is from the 17.50 race at Brighton on Thursday 6th June, a handicap for 3 year olds over 6 furlongs. There were 9 runners and the forecast going was good-to-firm. The draw advantage was given as ‘low’ at the top of the racecard and the below chart appears to bear this out. What is brilliant is that you can set the filters for the number of runners and the going and the chart is generated from a comparison of previous races over the same distance and conditions. It would appear that the stalls to be in are numbers 1 to 4 (if you consider the Places data too) and Stall 4 is definitely the plum draw.

The runners occupying these stalls for the race under consideration were: 1: Is This Love. 2: Pippy. 3: Tiger’s Home. And 4: Macaabre. Another case of Larkspur’s luck as the winner came from – you guessed it – stall 4! Macaabre was the 5/4F and won by 7 lengths. In second place was Pippy, Is This Love was fourth and Tiger’s Home a nonrunner.

Tipster Challenge

Those who receive the newsletter will know that after the Guineas meeting and Epsom that Larkspur is currently in first place in the Tipster Challenge table. This is due to a fantastic Derby Day when the Larkspur top-rated horses included: Thunder Strike, St Nicholas Abbey (I know it was a ‘gimme’) and Ruler Of The World. Yes, the Derby winner was tipped up in the newsletter and I can confidently say that my ante-post selection days are well and truly over! By the time this magazine hits your doorstep Royal Ascot will be over. Let us hope that we are still challenging the tipsters come the 22nd June. Famous last words. Happy Racing!


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RW Horse Racing is a combination of insider information gleaned from highly trusted personnel employed in senior positions in both Flat and National Hunt horse racing establishments, Leading bookmaker trading rooms and on course bookmakers. I have contacts in most of the leading yards both Flat and National Hunt, I get to know wellbeing and recent gallop reports on a daily basis, much of this information is classified and certainly not in the public domain enabling RW Horse Racing clients to have a massive advantage over the normal everyday punter. Established in July 2011 our membership have accrued over 110 points profit to recommended staking,the staking we use is 1 pt and 2 pt maximum. Once information is received it is analysed in house by our form analyst in doing this we gain an insight into every possible outcome of the event we are considering for

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MIDSUMMER HORSES TO FOLLOW Remote (pale cap)

Cape’s a good hope

Paul Ferguson with the horses he’s looking forward to seeing again Cape Peron (Henry Candy)

Very rarely are handicaps won in the manner that Cape Peron scored at Doncaster during May and, having earlier won a Newbury maiden in taking fashion on his reappearance in April, the Beat Hollow gelding remains very much one to follow. His maiden success is working out well and he swept from last to first to score at Doncaster, taking up the running on the bridle before quickening away in fine style. Now up to a mark of 100, he will more than likely have run in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot by the time you read this and, win, lose or draw there, he will still be one to keep onside throughout the summer. Carrying a big weight in such events is never easy, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Cape Peron developed in to a pat20

tern class performer during the remainder ping into staying handicap company later of the season. in the season.

Caledonia (Jim Goldie)

A classy bumper performer last season, when the pick of his form came when third to Oscar Rock at Newbury and third behind Killyglass in the Grade 2 at Aintree, the six-year-old has shown bits of promise in two starts on the Flat to date. Fourth at Thirsk during May, the Sulamani gelding went just one place better behind stable-mate Mister Pagan in a maiden over 1m6f at Ayr in early June. After hitting a flat spot, he kept on well and looks desperately in need of a step up to 2m (also stayed very well in bumpers). Certainly talented enough to win a maiden, Caledonia is one to note when step-

Integral (Sir Michael Stoute)

A well-bred daughter of Dalakhani, Integral was noticeably weak in the market before the off (had been backed earlier in the day) at Goodwood in late May, but that didn’t prevent her making a winning debut under a fine ride from Ryan Moore, who is riding at the top of his game at present. The Cheveley Park Stud bred and owned filly was well positioned in a slowly run race, but she picked up really well when Moore asked her to and she readily beat Magic Of Reality by the best part of 3 lengths. The runner-up had earlier finished fourth to Banoffee (won the Cheshire Oaks


BY PAUL FERGUSON next time) in a Newbury maiden and filled the same spot behind subsequent Oaks winner Talent in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes. She is rated 87 and gives the form of Integral’s debut success plenty of substance. Quite where we will see the winner next is anyone’s guess, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if her next start came in Listed company and, given she will get further as the season goes on, it will be disappointing if she can’t be placed to gain some valuable black type.

Mars

Mars (A P O’Brien)

The only horse to feature here having featured in my Flat 10 To Follow in the May edition of Racing Ahead Mars has finished sixth in both the 2,000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby since then, but remains a colt of some promise and one who can land a valuable prize in the second half of the season. The son of Galileo was desperately unlucky in running in the Derby and was the colt I took from the race. Held up off a slow pace by Richard Hughes, he got stopped on more than one occasion once Hughes asked him to pick up, yet he still ran on in taking fashion. The King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot was the obvious race for him in my opinion, though at the time of writing connections are considering the Tercentenary over 1m2f and even the St James’s Palace Stakes is an option as Magician’s participation is in doubt (news literally breaking at the time of writing). If that’s the case and he runs over a mile, you are most unlikely to have missed him landing a big race and he ought to come in to his own when reverting to middle distances.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

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21


MIDSUMMER HORSES TO FOLLOW

Pique Sous chased home Champagne Fever

The Irish Derby is a possible, though Ruler Of The World will obviously be representing the stable in that, so it could be the Great Voltigeur at York that becomes his next objective, before a possible tilt at the St Leger.

Montaser (David Simcock)

Gelded since disappointing in the Cesarewitch last October, Montaser made a winning return off 96 and under topweight at York recently and it was a performance that marked him down as one who can land a valuable staying handicap this season. Useful as a three-year-old, the son of Rail Link has clearly improved and he was given a confident ride by Jamie Spencer. Trainer David Simcock stated after the race that the four-year-old had missed a couple of weeks work and, given he was held up off a slow pace and he may have been short of fitness, the performance can be upgraded. He is now likely to head to 22

Newcastle for the Northumberland Plate in late June next (hopefully you’ll have your copy of Racing Ahead by then) after which the Ebor back at York appeals as an obvious target.

ing off a strong pace, the son of Martaline ought to get his optimum conditions here and would be an obvious contender if allowed to take his chance.

At the time of writing there are no entries available for the Galway Hurdle on 1 August, but when they come out I’m really hoping to see the name of Pique Sous appear. Willie Mullins’ grey was a classy bumper horse the season before last (third to stable-mate Champagne Fever in the Champion Bumper) he won three times in that sphere and struck at the second time of asking over hurdles at Thurles in October. After a winning pipe-opener on the Flat at Dundalk, the six-year-old finished sixth in the Supreme before returning to winning ways at Fairyhouse in April, when he appreciated the better ground. At his best on a decent surface and com-

A high-class hurdler who enjoyed his finest hour when winning the Galway Hurdle last year and Michael Winters’ stablestar could be back at Ballybrit again at the end of July, this time over fences. The eight-year-old will have the option of running in the 2m1f novice chase on the penultimate day of the meeting, but his trainer has already suggested that he will be given an entry in the Galway Plate, which would mean stepping up in trip to 2m6f. Beaten on his chase debut at Killarney in May (winner Arnaud has won again since), the son of Agent Bleu made no mistake next time and was heavily eased down before the line, so is value for much more than his ½ length success.

Pique Sous (W P Mullins)

Rebel Fitz (Michael Winters)


BY PAUL FERGUSON He warmed to his task as the race went on and looked better the further he went, so the step up in trip could bring about improvement and, while he would lack experience for a race like the Plate, he would be an intriguing runner. He might well be in action between now and then, with Winters stating he would like to find a winners’ race for him before Galway if possible.

Remote’s form is tied in with Dundonnell

Remote (John Gosden)

Impressive in shedding his maiden tag at Newbury in May when sent off 25/1, Remote proved that was no fluke when winning impressively at Doncaster in June on his handicap debut, off a mark of 89 (now rated 103). The drop back to a mile did not inconvenience the Dansili colt, who looked a three-year-old with a very bright future. The runner-up had finished third to Dundonnell in the Listed King Charles II Stakes the time before, while the third had looked smart when winning a maiden on the Town Moor, so he beat the right horses, too. A possible for Royal Ascot, where the Listed Tercentenary is an option, John Gosden has given his three-year-old an eye-catching entry in the John Smith’s Cup at York in mid July and he would be a fascinating runner against his elders there.

Riposte (Lady Cecil)

Engaged in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot while this feature goes to press, the Dansili filly has been handed an opening mark of 89 so it could be that connections opt to skip that Group 2 in favour of the handicap route. Wherever she turns up next, Riposte looks a filly with a really bright future judged on her two starts to date. Runnerup on debut at Sandown, she relished the step up to 1m4f, travelling smoothly and quickening away from Auld Alliance (a winner since) in fine style. A full sister to the useful Arizona Jewel, she looks completely unexposed and should be capable of landing a nice prize at some point during the summer, even if she doesn’t prove up to the task in the Ribblesdale.

Sizing Platinum (Henry De Bromhead)

An impressive 7-length winner on his racecourse debut in a Clonmel maiden hurdle during May, the five-year-old jumped fluently before staying on strongly in the closing stages. Described by his trainer as a good ground horse, he was given a race at Killarney in July as a possible target after

his debut success and it will take a decent horse to lower his colours in novice hurdles this time of year. There is also the option of the Galway Festival for the son of Definite Article, where the 2m novice on the opening day or the Topaz Novice Hurdle on day two are viable options. He looks a nice long-term prospect too and is certainly one for the midsummer notebook.

23


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FINDING WINNERS 

Welcome return for our man in Ireland

Tony Keenan comes back to these pages just in time for Classic action at the Curragh

A

fter some time away, it’s good to be back in these pages. The last time I was here I spent much of my time bemoaning the decline in quality of the Irish Derby and the Coolmore/Ballydoyle benefit it had become; Aidan O’Brien has now won the last seven renewals stretching back to Dylan Thomas in 2007. Indeed the only challenge to Ballydoyle runners in the race seemed to come from within the yard with Magnier/Tabor/ Smith-owned horses routinely dominating the betting and the finish. Thankfully, this is not the case in 2013 when a host of other interests are represented; competition is the lifeblood of racing, indeed any sport, and dictatorships are a turn-off for fans and punters alike. As ever, the Epsom Derby will be the key race. This year was an intriguing renewal, mainly due to the participation and subsequent antics of Dawn Approach, and it has to go down as one of the most analysed races of the year, or indeed any year, with any number of alternative views offered up. Much of the interest from the race emerged from the sectionals provided from sources like James Willoughby and Simon Rowlands which revealed a slow pace in the middle section of the race. My take is that this slow gallop would have been all against the eventual winner Ruler Of The World; having won over

24

Ruler Of The World

twelve furlongs previously (indeed, he was one of the few in the field with proven stamina) and being a half-brother to the King George winner Duke Of Jam, he would surely have preferred a stronger pace. Despite this, he showed a good turnof-foot to come from rear, something one wouldn’t have expected from a confirmed stayer, and was idling in the finish, much the best horse and better than the bare form. His breeding says he is one that will improve with time – his half-brother won just once from nine starts before his 4yo career – and Paul Fitzgerald (@Cav_TRF) posted and excellent stat on Twitter in the wake

of his win: ‘Aidan O’Brien horses that improved 20lbs RPR from debut to 2nd run, then followed until a win max next 3 runs since 2009: +91 points from 130 bets.’ Ruler Of The World is clearly one of these, the type to keep on improving, and he is a very solid favourite for this race. I would be against the pair that filled the frame behind him, Libertarian and Galileo Rock. There is a school of thought that says the former was disadvantaged by the slow pace at Epsom – his win in the Dante would support that argument – and that a strong gallop at a more conventional track like the Curragh would suit but to these eyes he just




IRISH RACING looks slow and doesn’t have the change of gear to win a Group 1 over 12f; furthermore, being trained by the Burkes, he wouldn’t have the same scope to improve as Ruler Of The World. With Galileo Rock, he too looks slow and it could take cup races until we see the best of him; he raced in the right position off a slow pace at Epsom and looks flattered. If there is one to rattle the favourite then it could be Trading Leather. He has lived in Dawn Approach’s shadow thus far and the suspicion is he would have run (and likely run well) at Epsom but for the presence of the 2,000 Guineas winner in his yard; it probably killed Jim Bolger to have to run him in the Irish 2,ooo Guineas instead. His form ties in favourably with the likes of Libertarian and won perhaps the strongest listed race of the year at the Curragh last time, staying on in the manner of one that will relish a mile and a half. The concern with him is that he may race too keenly, lit up as he was by a forceful ride in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but if his speed can be harnessed, he is the main danger to Ruler Of The World, provided he gets the fast ground he needs. While the field for the Irish Derby is pretty set, it is harder to see what will run in the shoulder races over Derby weekend. The Pretty Polly Stakes is other Group 1 over the three days and will likely see a clash of generations, the first opportunity for fillies and mares to meet this season in a top level race. I’m unsure about the quality of this year’s 3yo crop, especially as last year’s group were so strong, but Moth is one that shapes like this ten furlong trip will be her optimum; she appeared to find the mile in the 1,000 Guineas too sharp whereas twelve furlongs found her out in the Oaks. Of the older horses, Princess Highway is

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

interesting given her trainer’s fine record with similar types like Sapphire and Profound Beauty. Her return this season was disappointing but there were excuses – the ground was too soft, the pace too slow and she was in season – and while she can be in and out, a 6l defeat of The Fugue in last year’s Ribblesdale marks her down as a top performer on her day. Dermot Weld is also likely to have a big say in the outcome of the Curragh Cup given the depth he has in the staying division with the likes of Voleuse De Couers and Pale Mimosa and there could also be a good challenge from the English raiders. That said, perhaps last year’s runner-up

Midnight Soprano can go one better. She won five times last season so knows how to put her head in front and shaped well to win on her reappearance at Cork; while she goes well fresh, she tends to come on for the run too. A consistent and likeable type, she prefers an ease but handles all ground and hopefully will be made a price by the presence of an overbet Aidan O’Brien 3yo, invariably one of the lesser lights of the yard. The big handicap over the weekend will be the Paddy Power-sponsored Scurry over six furlongs and sixty-three yards though the distance of this race has not always been accurate! Ger Lyons holds a leading chance with

Galileo Rock (left) and Battle Of Marengo

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25


IRISH RACING

Princess Highway

Burn The Boats. A lightly raced 4yo, he has shaped well on both his recent starts in competitive handicaps at Newbury and the Curragh over 6f and a mile respectively. He clearly didn’t get home last time having travelled just about the best and the form of that race is working out well with the winner landing a Group 3 next time and this unusual trip should be ideal. It is a slight concern he missed his last race with a temperature but is respected if taking his chance. It’s hard not to put up a 3yo for what is likely to be a maximum field race especially as they are performing so well against their elders at this point of the season and Gathering Power fits the bill. Unlucky not to win as a 2yo last year, he has a few kinks – a big field will certainly suit as he needs cover and a strong pace – but won a strong 3yo handicap at Naas in May, the form of which is working out, and hails from a yard that does well with sprinters. Away from the big races, it might be worth picking out a quintet of handicappers that have caught my eye in recent weeks and are worth following around the Irish tracks. Mick Halford’s string are in bombing 26

form at the minute and Rummaging is one of the most interesting horses in his yard; he ran much better than the bare form in hot 6f handicap on Irish 1,000 Guineas day. Drawn low on a day when there was a significant bias towards the high numbers, he ran on well in the closing stages over a trip that is too sharp for him anyway. That was his first start since December and he’s one that habitually improves for a run and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t prove better than a mark of 78. Another Halford horse to note is Eastern Rules. Unlike his stablemate, he found a trip too far when running over a mile at the Curragh on 2,000 Guineas day, travelling strongly but not lasting home. The form of that race is working out and he can win back at 7f. Willie Mullins hasn’t had too many runners on the Flat this season but his Levanto won a good 3yo handicap over 12f at the Curragh in early June and looks an exciting prospect. The time of the race was good and she shaped better than the bare form, in front soon enough and her stamina ebbing away,

one that will have no problem dropping back to 10f. The race was won by subsequent Group 3 winner Ursa Major last year and while perhaps not of that class she should be up to winning off a revised mark of 92. At the lower levels, Indy Gal appeals a 3yo that can win. She shaped well when racing on the worst of the ground at Naas in May, making her challenge away from the other principals and only going down by a head, before being undone by a slow pace at Listowel next time. Held up that day, she just couldn’t get to the enterprisingly-ridden winner in the straight but compensation isn’t far away. Sassaway had been a money-burner prior to this season, without a win in over thirty career starts and looking a dodge in the process, but the switch to Eamoon O’Connell has turned her inside out and she has won her last two starts. A win over 7f at Down Royal was particularly impressive, overcoming a bad draw and only just seeing out the 7f having travelled strongly, so a drop back in trip should suit ideally.


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FINDING WINNERS Monbeg Dude (right)

Burns Night worth marking Jeremy Grayson presents another round-up of eyecatching summer jumping performers spotted around some of the country’s smaller meetings lately. STRATFORD, June 7th (Good, good to firm in places) 2m3f 0-95 Handicap Hurdle (class 5) Flattered a touch to run the winner to half a length after that one lost momentum thwacking the last, BURNS NIGHT nevertheless gave by far the strongest indication yet that he’s starting to get there over hurdles now – and that upped to a trip which his Flat profile wouldn’t automatically have pointed towards him excelling over. A rise from 77 to 83 for this close second still only takes his mark 3lb above the highest ever accorded to him on the level, and the fact that all victories in that sphere were gained on fast surfaces between May and August sets a precedent for him to strike imminently if underfoot conditions are in his favour. STRATFORD, June 8th (Good to firm, good in places) 28

3m4f 0-125 Handicap Chase (class 3) Although a 2009 defeat of future Grand National third Seabass on heavy may have initially indicated otherwise, BOROLEE has cut a more convincing figure granted a sounder surface in more recent times, with his record in 2m6f-3m2f handicap chases on good or good to firm in the last three years reading 11803131. Conditions suited again here, but the combination of a longer trip than usual and a third race in 13 days did not, and he may be due a little break now. Rated 97 inclusive of a penalty here, but set to rise to only 1lb higher than that (and still 3lb below his highest mark ever defied) once all recent efforts are totted up, he’s good for one more win over the right trip/going in the near future - assuming he’s not set to follow current handler Ferdy Murphy to France before getting chance.

NEWTON ABBOT, June 10th (Good to firm, good in places) 2m3f 0-95 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (class 5) The career paths of JUST CLOUDY and Monbeg Dude have gone in markedly different directions since the former touched off the future Welsh National winner in a bumper on New Year’s Eve 2010, but victory here off 88 did at least represent the first step back in the right direction for the now Robert Walford-trained nine-year-old in the troubled two and a half years since. Daryl Jacob’s identification of a wind problem back in February has proven key, with the combination of a remedial operation in the interim and a first try on ground faster than good eliciting this improvement. He’s still likely to be well treated on the basis of his best bumper form after reassessment.


OUT IN THE STICKS 3m3f 0-105 Handicap Hurdle (class 4) KASBAN has never successfully defied an absence of more than 27 days, so this first start since Christmas was never likely to see him in the best light (for all that a visor was debuted), and whilst support came ahead of this debut for Jim Best it was hardly seismic. Better than a 17l seventh can surely be expected next time with the cobwebs duly blown away, especially off a mark already 3lb below his last winning one of 2011 (and that in another long-distance good-ground handicap hurdle, too), regardless of any further drop that may follow this run. WORCESTER, June 11th (Good, good to firm in places) 2m7f 0-110 Handicap Chase (class 4) It’s not a particular surprise to see JUNIOR JACK turning up in the care of Niff Mason now, with several other North Park Farm Racing-owned animals – including full siblings Jacko’s Boy and Love Of Tara – having similarly made the move to her care from Martin Keighley. Unraced in a year save for a solitary Point-to-Point at Horseheath in February (tough task against the likes of Sybarite), this tubed Kayf Tara eight-year-old has never previously defied an absence of over 20 days so will more than likely have needed this spin. Any drop of over 2lb for this 25lb defeat would take him back below his previous winning chase mark, adding further to his appeal when next seen. 2m Mares’ NH Flat Race (class 6) There was a lot more pace on in this bumper than many of its kind, which, coupled with the galloping nature of the Pitchcroft venue suited DARDANELLA down to the ground, and a shock 16-1 victory was so very nearly hers. Few other such races will fall as accommodatingly for this daughter of a mare who landed a 3m hurdle here 13 summers ago (as well as a number of marathon Flat handicaps and three Points), though maybe a switch from today’s patient tactics to something more assertive could compensate sufficiently should the usually dawdle of bumpers ensue next time out. Either way, she has ability. 2m NH Novices’ Hurdle (class 4) Time may prove that FRONTIER VIC simply isn’t any great shakes, or that the fact he never saw the track for Seamus Mullins before joining Nigel Twiston-Davies hints at some underlying health/training issues. What is also clear, however, is that the

Kasban

gelding is yet to be set any sort of assignment that befits an animal whose damside is drenched with 3m performers (including top-notchers such as Cab On Target and Everett). He can’t be hit with too hideous a mark (high-80s maximum, surely) once sent handicapping on the evidence to date, and interest in him in lowly banded events will rise exponentially with every furlong closer to 3m he is asked to cover. UTTOXETER, June 13th (Good, good to soft in places) 2m4f 0-115 Novices’ Handicap Chase (class 4) It will be important to emphasize the “good to soft” when looking at BECKHANI’s undoubtedly below-par 22.5l third in this contest in future, as genuinely good

conditions have prevailed on the occasions he’s come closest to breaking his duck up until now. He wasn’t at all flattered by his close second to Lough Derg Way (a winner again since) at Newton Abbot last month on his obligatory novice chase start, and the 107 mark accorded him subsequently is eminently exploitable in the near future when the rain holds off long enough for him. 3m 0-120 Handicap Chase (class 4) Running a rival in Cardigan Island who continues to scale new heights in a cheekpiece/tonguetrap combination to 8l here was no shabby effort by ATLANTA FALCON, especially given the gulf in experience in chasing (one sole previous start to the winner’s 11) caught up with him twice on the way round and assuredly cost

29


OUT IN THE STICKS him an even closer finish. There’ll always have to be the hope that this Winged Love gelding doesn’t start to become as much of a bridle horse as his gifted but tricky halfbrother (and one-time Gordon Elliott stablemate) Russian Flag over time, but for now at least he looks straightforward; and there’s already enough winning form on his cv around courses active over the summer – Uttoxeter and Perth – to offer hope he can be found opportunities in the near future when the jumping holds up sufficiently well. AINTREE, June 14th (Good to soft) 2m1f Maiden Hurdle (class 4) ROCK A DOODLE DOO’s recent Flat efforts had rated merely on a par with rather than in excess of his current mark(s), but a 6l third here – which could have been better still but for bungling two out – certainly hinted that an upturn in fortunes could be wrought by this switch to hurdling. It’s noticeable that his one half-sibling to have been campaigned extensively as a hurdler to date, Extreme Conviction, enjoyed most success when granted 2m3f-plus during the summer and early-autumn months, winning on four occasions during a sevenrace period in 2010 alone; and this stayer of up to 1m6f on the level on sound turf and Polytrack is taken to do his best work over timber granted similar tests in the coming weeks. 2m1f 0-135 Handicap Hurdle (class 3) AAZIF’s current mid-120s mark has been largely predicated on what he’s achieved in successfully making all in 2m1f novice hurdles around Sedgefield, the aggressive tactics necessary to compensate for what would otherwise be an inadequate trip for this stayer of 1m4f and more on the level. He couldn’t boss a better field of handicappers here, and nor, one would suspect, would he get any less contested a lead in something like the Summer Hurdle (if that

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Beckhani

is an intended target). Rather like Rock A Doodle Doo above, however, he seems capable enough to take his form to a higher level over longer distances than this over hurdles, and in addition a return to a genuinely quick surface wouldn’t go amiss for him. 2m4f Novices’ Hurdle (class 4) It’s not hard to conclude that the poor second Uttoxeter bumper run which followed an impressive win in the first last summer (the penultimate jumps winner ever sent out by the much-missed Owen Brennan) simply came too soon for KILLALA QUAY. Batteries refreshed after a whole year off, and moved to the care of Charlie Longsdon in the interim, the Karinga Bay six-year-old had this moderately run contest – which was still won in a time 10 seconds quicker than managed by the 104-rated scorer in the subsequent C&D mares’ handicap - shot to bits two out. He’s by no means certain to relish a truly

run affair at this trip (quite the opposite, given a preponderance of 5f-1m scorers on the damside), and a drop back to the minimum over hurdles therefore wouldn’t concern. 2m4f 0-120 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (class 4) The deteriorating conditions didn’t deal MRS PEACHEY’s hat-trick bid a fatal blow, but one or both of the return to a sharp track and the modest pace almost certainly did. Unmoved from a provisional mark of 113 for this handicap bow having slammed some vastly inferior types in mares’ novice company last time, this recent Towcester and Wetherby scorer is best kept to tracks of Worcester or Ffos Las dimensions if she is to stay on the go this summer – which, having had a lightish 2013 so far and with the looks of a bit still in hand of the assessor, there’s no reason why she ought not.

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 

    

             

  FROM GENESIS TO REVELATIONSThe LARKSPUR METHOD (A Mug Punter's Bible)                    REAL  WINNERS      Available direct from the publisher at www.lulu.com £9.99 (excl. P&P)  or from www.larkspurracing.co.uk buy with PayPal  The LARKSPUR METHOD is also available as an eBook       

TOP RACING SYSTEMS – Origin of the Species

             Racing Ahead                                    Order direct from www.lulu.com £7.99 (excl P&P) or from www.larkspurracing.co.uk buy with PayPal The TOPS RACING SYSTEMS are also available as an eBook

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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013

All set for a Glorious week T

he end of this month sees one of the undoubted highlights of the Flat racing season – Glorious Goodwood from Tuesday 30 July to Saturday 3 August. Over 100,000 people flock through the gates each year to enjoy this chic, relaxed and incredibly glamorous five-day festival that celebrates the very best from the world of fashion and horseracing. The standard of horseracing is always exceptionally high with two Group One contests – including the iconic Qipco Sussex Stakes, which was won by the mighty Frankel in both 2011 and 2012, and three races featuring in the prestigious British Champions Series. Tickets and hospitality for all remaining fixtures during 2013, including Glorious Goodwood, are on sale now. To book visit www. goodwood.com or telephone 01243 755055. As with all big meetings, some trainers fare better than others. Our table on the right looks at the record of handlers at Goodwood during July and August over the past 10 seasons. We have highlighted the yards with profitable records in bold and many of the usual names are there. Sir Henry Cecil had an enviable record in recent years with a 22% win rate and Lady Cecil is sure to have a strong team trying to emulate the great man’s efforts. Mark Johnston may have a lot of runners at the meeting but he’s maintaining a more than respectable 13% strike-rate for an overall profit of £45.49 to a £1 stake – an excellent effort from so many runners. On the flip side, Richard Hannon has plenty of winners at Britain’s most scenic track but they come at a price. From a 10% strike-rate, he is showing a loss of £134 to level stakes. Amanda Perrett and Saeed Bin Suroor are two other trainers with losses despite sending out many winners. Over the next pages, we have gone through the meeting’s big races with a fine toothcomb to find the trends that matter. You’re now armed with the stats to give you an edge across five Glorious days’ racing.

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

TRAINERS AT GOODWOOD JULY/ AUGUST SINCE 2003 (min 10 runs) Trainer Runs Arbuthnot, D W P 13 Cecil, H R A 58 Cumani, L M 82 Wall, C F 20 Prescott, Sir Mark 40 Noseda, J 64 Brown, D H 10 Makin, P J 27 Henderson, N J 11 Charlton, R 51 McMahon, E S 11 Knight, W J 34 Stoute, Sir Michael 149 Fanshawe, J R 30 Gosden, J H M 93 Carroll, A W 26 Chapple-Hyam, P W 41 King, A 14 Kirk, S 51 OBrien, A P 53 Johnston, M 278 Williams, Ian 16 Jarvis, W 15 Meehan, B J 90 Kittow, W S 17 Winkworth, P 17 Suroor, Saeed Bin 124 Cowell, R M H 17 Musson, W J 19 Goldie, J S 10 Best, J R 40 Davis, D J S Ffrench 10 Candy, H 42 Vaughan, E F 10 Chapple-Hyam, Jane 10 Elsworth, D R C 63 Hannon, R 399 Cole, P F I 90 Jarvis, A P 52 Tregoning, M P 89 Haggas, W J 58 Eddery, Pat 11 Quinn, J J 22 Chamings, P R 33 Beckett, R M 55 Botti, M 12 Perrett, Mrs A J 148 Given, J G 40 Brittain, C E 51

Wins 3 13 16 4 8 13 2 5 2 9 2 6 25 5 15 4 6 2 7 7 36 2 2 12 2 2 15 2 2 1 4 1 4 1 1 6 39 9 5 9 5 1 2 3 5 1 12 3 4

Win% 23% 22% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%

£1 bet 13.50 5.55 -5.34 30.00 6.88 1.72 -2.12 3.00 2.00 3.25 9.50 28.50 -11.52 -6.17 9.82 31.75 -11.81 -4.00 3.13 -33.20 45.49 2.50 -3.00 0.60 15.00 4.50 -45.13 -3.50 1.50 0.00 7.00 -7.62 -12.50 3.00 5.00 -21.50 -134.89 -45.17 32.25 -28.04 2.50 -5.50 -4.00 2.00 26.50 -2.00 -59.17 -10.00 33.00

Places 4 22 31 7 13 26 3 14 4 21 4 7 58 16 37 5 15 4 14 24 87 6 5 22 3 7 40 5 4 1 10 1 18 3 2 15 102 25 12 27 22 4 7 9 11 3 36 10 10

FRED’S E V I S S A M USHES P Y L I A D

Place% 31% 38% 38% 35% 33% 41% 30% 52% 36% 41% 36% 21% 39% 53% 40% 19% 37% 29% 27% 45% 31% 38% 33% 24% 18% 41% 32% 29% 21% 10% 25% 10% 43% 30% 20% 24% 26% 28% 23% 30% 38% 36% 32% 27% 20% 25% 24% 25% 20%

as seen on

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08


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013 POSITION IN BETTING MARKET

Trends from www.horseracebase.com DAY ONE: GORDON STAKES

Date 31.07.2012 26.07.2011 27.07.2010 28.07.2009 29.07.2008 31.07.2007 1.08.2006 26.07.2005 27.07.2004 29.07.2003 30.07.2002 31.07.2001 1.08.2000 27.07.1999 28.07.1998 28.07.1998 29.07.1997

Winner SP Noble Mission 11/4 Namibian (IRE) 7/1 Rebel Soldier (IRE) 4/1 Harbinger 11/4 Conduit (IRE) 1/2 Yellowstone (IRE) 5/2 Sixties Icon 7/4 The Geezer 3/1 Maraahel (IRE) 9/4 Phoenix Reach (IRE) 12/1 Bandari (IRE) 15/8 Alexius (IRE) 7/1 Millenary 9/1 Compton Ace 12/1 Nedawi 5/1 Rabah 5/2 Stowaway 10/3

Trainer Cecil, H R A Johnston, M Noseda, J Stoute, Sir Michael Stoute, Sir Michael OBrien, A P Noseda, J Elsworth, D R C Stoute, Sir Michael Balding, A M Johnston, M Stoute, Sir Michael Dunlop, J L Butler, G A Suroor, Saeed Bin Dunlop, J L Suroor, Saeed Bin

Age-Wt OR 3 9-0 110 3 9-3 103 3 9-0 102 3 9-0 96 3 9-0 112 3 9-0 0 3 9-0 110 3 8-10 110 3 8-10 103 3 8-10 90 3 8-13 118 3 8-10 0 3 8-13 107 3 8-10 94 3 8-10 0 3 8-10 112 3 8-10 0

Jockey Queally, T P Sousa, Silvestre De Moore, Ryan Moore, Ryan Moore, Ryan Murtagh, J Dettori, L Quinn, T Hills, R Holland, Darryll Supple, W J Fallon, K Quinn, T Fallon, K Dettori, L Hills, R Darley, K

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT

Going Good Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good Good To Soft Good Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm

Dist 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f

Stall 7 10 9 6 4 10 7 3 1 3 1 7 8 5 5 4 6

Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Eleventh

Runs 46 22 18 13 8 6 3 5 4 1

Wins 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

£1 bet 9.25 -9.17 3.75 -9.5 -8 -6 -3 -2.12 -4 -1

Win% 17% 18% 17% 8% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0%

Places 18 10 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 0

Place% 39% 45% 33% 15% 0% 17% 33% 40% 0% 0%

Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Runs 16 15 16 15 15 14 9 9 8 7 4

Wins 2 0 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 0

£1 bet -9.87 -15 1 -10 4 -5.92 5.5 1 -3 4.5 -4

Win% 13% 0% 13% 13% 13% 14% 33% 11% 13% 29% 0%

Places 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 3 1

Place% 19% 27% 25% 27% 33% 21% 44% 44% 63% 43% 25%

Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days H) > 365 days I) First Run

Runs 1 10 50 48 14 2 1 2

Wins 0 0 6 8 3 0 0 0

£1 bet -1 -10 -12 -7.87 4.08 -2 -1 -2

Win% 0% 0% 12% 17% 21% 0% 0% 0%

Places 0 2 16 15 7 0 0 0

Place% 0% 20% 32% 31% 50% 0% 0% 0%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Runs 18 15 15 20 14 13 10 10 8 4 1

Wins 6 4 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet 2.83 -1.62 3 -12 9 0 -10 -10 -8 -4 -1

Win% 33% 27% 20% 5% 14% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 9 8 7 7 4 2 0 1 2 0 0

Place% 50% 53% 47% 35% 29% 15% 0% 10% 25% 0% 0%

Trainer Noseda, J Butler, G A Suroor, Saeed Bin Cecil, H R A Stoute, Sir M Dunlop, J L Johnston, M Balding, A M Elsworth, D R C OBrien, A P

Bets 3 2 5 3 12 7 9 5 6 7

Wins 2 1 2 1 4 2 2 1 1 1

Win% 67% 50% 40% 33% 33% 29% 22% 20% 17% 14%

£1 bet 4.75 11.00 5.33 0.75 4.50 6.50 1.88 8.00 -2.00 -3.50

Places 2 1 3 1 7 3 3 2 1 2

Place% 67% 50% 60% 33% 58% 43% 33% 40% 17% 29%

Track Chester Doncaster Haydock Sandown Epsom Ascot Newbury York Newmarket (July)

Bets 2 2 12 5 5 35 6 8 26

Wins 2 1 3 1 1 6 1 1 1

Win% 100% 50% 25% 20% 20% 17% 17% 13% 4%

£1 bet 11.75 2.33 1.50 -1.50 -2.12 -2.75 7.00 -3.00 -18.00

Places 2 1 5 2 3 12 2 4 6

Place% 100% 50% 42% 40% 60% 34% 33% 50% 23%

WINNING TRAINERS

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

DAY ONE: LENNOX STAKES Date 31.07.2012 26.07.2011 27.07.2010 28.07.2009 29.07.2008 31.07.2007 1.08.2006 26.07.2005 27.07.2004 29.07.2003 2.08.2002 3.08.2001 4.08.2000

Winner SP Chachamaidee (IRE) 5/4 Strong Suit (USA) 5/2 Lord Shanakill (USA)13/2 Finjaan 5/1 Paco Boy (IRE) 7/1 Tariq 7/2 Iffraaj 6/4 Court Masterpiece 4/1 Byron 16/1 Nayyir 6/1 Nayyir 9/2 Fath (USA) 14/1 Observatory (USA) 11/4

Trainer Age-Wt OR Cecil, H R A 5 8-13 113 Hannon, R 3 8-9 116 Cecil, H R A 4 9-2 113 Tregoning, M P 3 8-9 116 Hannon, R 3 8-9 110 Chapple-Hyam, P W 3 8-9 114 Suroor, Saeed Bin 5 9-4 117 Dunlop, E A L 5 9-0 110 Suroor, Saeed Bin 3 8-7 111 Butler, G A 5 9-4 0 Butler, G A 4 9-4 114 Tregoning, M P 4 9-0 108 Gosden, J H M 3 8-12 113

Jockey Queally, T P Hughes, Richard Queally, T P OShea, T P Hughes, Richard McEvoy, Kerrin Dettori, L Robinson, Philip McEvoy, Kerrin Ahern, Eddie Ahern, Eddie Dwyer, Martin Darley, K

Going Good Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good Good To Soft Good Good Good To Firm Good Good

Dist 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f

Stall 2 5 6 1 9 12 1 3 5 9 5 7 4

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second

Runs 27 23

Wins 6 3

£1 bet 15.25 -13.25

Win% 22% 13%

Places 13 6

Place% 48% 26%

S D D O T S BE NTEED GUARATED RACES C ON SELE

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BIG-RACE TRENDS Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Thirteenth Fourteenth

15 13 9 9 7 8 4 3 3 1 2

0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

-15 -7.5 -9 -2 -7 9 2 -3 -3 -1 -2

0% 8% 0% 11% 0% 13% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2 4 2 2 2 4 1 1 0 0 1

13% 31% 22% 22% 29% 50% 25% 33% 0% 0% 50%

£1 bet -4.5 -10.75 -6 -8.25 14 -5.5 3 -11 4 -7 -5 0.5 -3 -1 -1

Win% 15% 8% 9% 8% 25% 8% 8% 0% 18% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0%

Places 4 4 3 1 6 6 3 1 6 2 0 1 1 0 0

Place% 31% 31% 27% 8% 50% 46% 25% 9% 55% 29% 0% 25% 33% 0% 0%

£1 bet -5 -11 -22 -8.5 2 6 -3

Win% 0% 0% 8% 13% 25% 50% 0%

Places 0 2 15 18 1 1 1

Place% 0% 18% 29% 35% 25% 50% 33%

£1 bet -5.75 13.25 7 -11 -19 8 -2 -8 -8 -8 -2 -2

Win% 21% 38% 21% 0% 0% 11% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 9 8 4 1 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2

Place% 64% 62% 29% 9% 16% 33% 18% 25% 13% 13% 50% 100%

Win% 100% 50% 50% 40%

£1 bet 7.75 8.50 3.00 16.00

Places 2 3 1 2

Place% 100% 75% 50% 40%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Runs 13 13 11 12 12 13 12 11 11 7 5 4 3 1 1

Wins 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days G) 121-365 days

Runs 5 11 52 52 4 2 3

Wins 0 0 4 7 1 1 0

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Runs 14 13 14 11 19 9 17 8 8 8 2 2

Wins 3 5 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Cecil, H R A Butler, G A Dunlop, E A L Tregoning, M P

Bets 2 4 2 5

Wins 2 2 1 2

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Suroor, Saeed Bin Chapple-Hyam, P W Gosden, J H M Hannon, R

6 3 5 13

2 1 1 2

33% 33% 20% 15%

13.50 1.50 -1.25 -1.50

3 1 1 7

50% 33% 20% 54%

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Newcastle Newmarket (Rowley) Lingfield Ascot Chester Newbury Newmarket (July)

Bets 2 3 5 43 16 10 28

Wins 1 1 1 6 2 1 1

Win% 50% 33% 20% 14% 13% 10% 4%

£1 bet 5.00 3.00 0.00 -6.50 6.50 -2.00 -25.50

Places 1 1 2 17 4 3 6

Place% 50% 33% 40% 40% 25% 30% 21%

DAY ONE: MOLECOMB STAKES Date 31.07.2012 26.07.2011 27.07.2010 28.07.2009 29.07.2008 31.07.2007 1.08.2006 26.07.2005 27.07.2004 31.07.2003 1.08.2002 2.08.2001 4.08.2000 30.07.1999 31.07.1998 1.08.1997

Winner SP Bungle Inthejungle 14/1 Requinto (IRE) 6/1 Zebedee 2/1 Monsieur Chevalier 10/11 Finjaan 5/1 Fleeting Spirit (IRE) 8/1 Enticing (IRE) 3/1 Strike Up The Band 6/1 Tournedos (IRE) 14/1 Majestic Missile 9/4 Wunders Dream 8/1 Whitbarrow (IRE) 10/1 Misty Eyed (IRE) 3/1 Misty Miss 33/1 Inya Lake 20/1 Lady Alexander 10/3

Trainer Channon, M R Wachman, David Hannon, R Hannon, R Tregoning, M P Noseda, J Haggas, W J Nicholls, D Channon, M R Haggas, W J Given, J G Millman, B R Dutfield, Mrs P N Evans, P D Channon, M R Collins, C

Age-Wt OR 2 9-0 98 2 9-0 0 2 9-0 104 2 9-0 0 2 9-0 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 9-1 0 2 8-12 0 2 8-12 0 2 8-7 0 2 9-1 0 2 8-10 0 2 8-7 0 2 8-7 0 2 8-12 0

Jockey Harley, M Lordan, W M Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Hills, R Murtagh, J Hills, Michael Nicholls, Adrian T Durcan, Ted Hills, Michael Fenton, Micky Marcus, B Newman, L Egan, John Quinn, T Shanahan, P

Going Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good To Soft Good Good Good Good To Firm Good Good Good To Soft Good To Firm

Dist 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f

Stall 10 14 4 2 10 15 8 1 14 5 2 7 4 8 1 12

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Seventeenth Eighteenth Twenty Fourth Disqualified

Runs 76 27 18 13 10 5 7 9 10 2 1 3 4 1 2 1 1

Wins 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -39.51 29 3 2 -10 -5 -7 6 -10 -2 -1 -3 7 -1 -2 -1 -1

Win% 11% 15% 6% 8% 0% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 24 9 3 5 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

Place% 32% 33% 17% 38% 10% 20% 0% 22% 10% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 100%

£1 bet 13 -5.09 -16

Win% 13% 13% 0%

Places 4 4 5

Place% 27% 25% 31%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3

Runs 15 16 16

Wins 2 2 0

S D D O E 3X TH INNER W FOR ONE CKY 15 ON A LU

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37


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

15 16 15 15 16 14 13 11 10 9 6 3 1

2 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 1 0

-8 -12.75 -15 -4 22 -14 8 -11 -5.67 -9 16 6 -1

13% 6% 0% 7% 13% 0% 15% 0% 10% 0% 33% 33% 0%

4 4 4 4 6 2 3 2 2 0 2 1 1

27% 25% 27% 27% 38% 14% 23% 18% 20% 0% 33% 33% 100%

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days

Runs 10 59 73 41 4 3

Wins 0 6 6 3 1 0

£1 bet -10 15.91 -30.42 -10 2 -3

Win% 0% 10% 8% 7% 25% 0%

Places 1 15 17 11 2 2

Place% 10% 25% 23% 27% 50% 67%

Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Runs 16 18 17 15 17 17 17 15 20 8 15 6 4 6

Wins 6 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

£1 bet 4.49 -11 0 -8 1 -2 -2 6 -20 26 -15 -6 -4 -6

Win% 38% 6% 12% 7% 12% 6% 6% 7% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 9 11 6 6 4 2 2 3 2 1 2 0 0 0

Place% 56% 61% 35% 40% 24% 12% 12% 20% 10% 13% 13% 0% 0% 0%

Trainer Tregoning, M P Wachman, David Millman, B R Haggas, W J Dutfield, Mrs P N Collins, C Nicholls, D Channon, M R Given, J G Noseda, J Evans, P D Hannon, R

Bets 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 11 4 4 6 22

Wins 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2

Win% 100% 100% 100% 67% 50% 50% 33% 27% 25% 25% 17% 9%

£1 bet 5.00 6.00 10.00 4.25 2.00 2.33 4.00 40.00 5.00 5.00 28.00 -17.09

Places 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 6 1 2 1 4

Place% 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 67% 55% 25% 50% 17% 18%

Track Nottingham Wolverhampton Tipperary Sandown

Bets 2 2 2 11

Wins 1 1 1 3

Win% 50% 50% 50% 27%

£1 bet 7.00 2.00 5.00 2.00

Places 1 1 1 5

Place% 50% 50% 50% 45%

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET

WINNING TRAINERS

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Curragh York Newbury Bath Chester Ascot

4 8 40 11 16 24

1 1 5 1 1 1

25% 13% 13% 9% 6% 4%

0.33 -1.00 17.91 23.00 -12.75 -9.00

1 3 12 3 4 7

Jockey Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Kirby, Adam Dettori, L Dettori, L Ahern, Eddie Dwyer, Martin Fanning, Joe Dalgleish, K Spencer, Jamie Dettori, L Murtagh, J Hills, R Dettori, L Eddery, Pat

Going Good Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Soft Good Good To Soft Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good Good To Firm

25% 38% 30% 27% 25% 29%

DAY TWO: VINTAGE STAKES Date 1.08.2012 27.07.2011 28.07.2010 29.07.2009 30.07.2008 1.08.2007 2.08.2006 27.07.2005 28.07.2004 30.07.2003 31.07.2002 1.08.2001 2.08.2000 29.07.1999 29.07.1998 30.07.1997

Winner SP Olympic Glory (IRE) 11/4 Chandlery (IRE) 5/2 King Torus (IRE) 11/4 Xtension (IRE) 7/2 Orizaba (IRE) 11/4 Rio De La Plata 8/13 Strategic Prince 6/1 Sir Percy 4/1 Shamardal (USA) 8/13 Lucky Story (USA) 6/5 Dublin (IRE) 11/1 Naheef (IRE) 8/1 No Excuse Needed 12/1 Ekraar (USA) 7/4 Aljabr (USA) 4/6 Central Park (IRE) 5/4

Trainer Hannon, R Hannon, R Hannon, R Cox, C G Channon, M R Suroor, Saeed Bin Cole, P F I Tregoning, M P Johnston, M Johnston, M Loder, D R Loder, D R Stoute, Sir Michael Tregoning, M P Suroor, Saeed Bin Cole, P F I

Age-Wt OR 2 9-3 111 2 9-0 0 2 9-3 104 2 9-0 0 2 9-0 0 2 9-0 0 2 9-3 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 8-11 0 2 9-0 0

Dist 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f 7f

Stall 9 6 2 9 5 5 10 8 1 8 9 1 8 1 6 6

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Eleventh Fourteenth Fifteenth

Runs 77 15 13 12 3 5 3 2 1 1 1 1

Wins 12 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -14.14 -4.25 -13 -12 0.75 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1

Win% 16% 20% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 25 6 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

Place% 32% 40% 23% 25% 33% 20% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

£1 bet -2.63 -11.25 -15 -16 -9.63 -6.58 -13 10.2 10.25 -2 -2

Win% 19% 7% 0% 0% 13% 21% 0% 30% 30% 11% 0%

Places 6 3 3 5 7 7 0 5 3 2 0

Place% 38% 20% 20% 31% 47% 50% 0% 50% 30% 22% 0%

£1 bet -2 8

Win% 0% 15%

Places 0 2

Place% 0% 15%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Runs 16 15 15 16 15 14 13 10 10 9 2

Wins 3 1 0 0 2 3 0 3 3 1 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days

Runs 2 13

Wins 0 2

S D D O E H 4X T R E N N I W FOR ONE CKY 31 ON A LU

*Applies to horses and greyhounds only.

Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

38


BIG-RACE TRENDS C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days

85 33 1

10 4 0

-44.14 -17.5 -1

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT

12% 12% 0%

26 12 0

31% 36% 0%

£1 bet 5.11 -1.75 -15 10 -17 -15 1 -9 -11 -5

Win% 50% 24% 0% 16% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%

Places 10 7 8 7 2 2 2 1 2 0

Place% 63% 41% 53% 37% 12% 13% 18% 11% 18% 0%

Win% 50% 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 17% 14% 11%

£1 bet 17.00 11.00 -0.71 2.50 4.25 2.75 -8.18 -10.00 -5.25

Places 2 2 2 1 3 2 6 5 2

Place% 50% 100% 50% 50% 60% 40% 50% 24% 22%

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Runs 16 17 15 19 17 15 11 9 11 5

Wins 8 4 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 0

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Loder, D R Stoute, Sir Michael Suroor, Saeed Bin Cox, C G Cole, P F I Tregoning, M P Johnston, M Hannon, R Channon, M R

Bets 4 2 4 2 5 5 12 21 9

Wins 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 1

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Pontefract Salisbury Ayr Sandown Ascot Epsom Newbury Newmarket (July)

Bets 1 3 3 8 17 6 7 48

Wins 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 6

Win% 100% 33% 33% 25% 18% 17% 14% 13%

£1 bet 1.20 2.00 -1.38 6.67 -6.50 3.00 5.00 -25.63

Places 1 2 2 3 4 2 1 15

Place% 100% 67% 67% 38% 24% 33% 14% 31%

DAY TWO: SUSSEX STAKES Date 1.08.2012 27.07.2011 28.07.2010 29.07.2009 30.07.2008 1.08.2007 2.08.2006 27.07.2005 28.07.2004 30.07.2003 31.07.2002 1.08.2001 2.08.2000 28.07.1999 29.07.1998 30.07.1997

Winner SP Trainer Frankel 1/20 Cecil, H R A Frankel 8/13 Cecil, H R A Canford Cliffs (IRE) 4/6 Hannon, R Rip Van Winkle (IRE) 6/4 OBrien, A P Henrythenavigator 4/11 OBrien, A P Ramonti (FR) 9/2 Suroor, Saeed Bin Court Masterpiece 15/2 Dunlop, E A L Proclamation (IRE) 3/1 Noseda, J Soviet Song (IRE) 3/1 Fanshawe, J R Reel Buddy (USA) 20/1 Hannon, R Rock Of Gibraltar 8/13 OBrien, A P Noverre (USA) 9/2 Suroor, Saeed Bin Giants Causeway 3/1 OBrien, A P Aljabr (USA) 11/10 Suroor, Saeed Bin Among Men (USA) 4/1 Stoute, Sir Michael Ali-Royal (IRE) 13/2 Cecil, H R A

Age-Wt OR 4 9-7 140 3 8-13 130 3 8-13 122 3 8-13 128 3 8-13 0 5 9-7 118 6 9-7 115 3 8-13 116 4 9-4 115 5 9-7 113 3 8-13 0 3 9-0 118 3 9-0 0 3 8-13 120 4 9-7 0 4 9-7 0

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Jockey Queally, T P Queally, T P Hughes, Richard Murtagh, J Murtagh, J Dettori, L Fortune, Jimmy Kinane, M J Murtagh, J Eddery, Pat Kinane, M J Dettori, L Kinane, M J Dettori, L Kinane, M J Fallon, K

Going Good Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Soft Good Good To Soft Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good Good To Firm

Dist 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m

Stall 3 3 7 7 4 1 3 6 7 5 3 1 5 3 2 7

Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Twelfth Fourteenth Sixteenth

Runs 40 24 10 13 10 10 5 4 4 1 1 1 1

Wins 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -2.68 15.6 -10 -13 -10 -10 -5 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1

Win% 28% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 15 12 1 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 1 1 1

Place% 38% 50% 10% 23% 20% 20% 0% 25% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%

£1 bet -5 -11 -0.11 -14.64 11 -9 4.67 -10 -7 -4 -5 -1

Win% 13% 6% 33% 6% 14% 8% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 7 5 6 6 6 1 5 1 1 1 1 0

Place% 44% 31% 40% 38% 43% 8% 45% 10% 14% 25% 20% 0%

£1 bet -2 -2 -17 -13.08 -7 -5 -1

Win% 0% 0% 13% 16% 0% 0% 0%

Places 0 0 13 24 2 0 0

Place% 0% 0% 33% 36% 29% 0% 0%

£1 bet -1.08 -3 -10.5 5.5 -15 -12 9 -11 -5 -5 -3

Win% 47% 19% 6% 19% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 14 9 4 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0

Place% 82% 56% 25% 25% 27% 25% 8% 9% 0% 0% 0%

Win% 50% 50% 33%

£1 bet 4.17 6.50 1.00

Places 3 1 1

Place% 50% 50% 33%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Runs 16 16 15 16 14 13 11 10 7 4 5 1

Wins 2 1 5 1 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days G) 121-365 days H) > 365 days

Runs 2 2 40 67 7 5 1

Wins 0 0 5 11 0 0 0

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Runs 17 16 16 16 15 12 12 11 5 5 3

Wins 8 3 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Cecil, H R A Dunlop, E A L Noseda, J

Bets 6 2 3

Wins 3 1 1

S D D O E H 5X T R E N N I W FOR ONE KY 63 ON A LUC

*Applies to horses and greyhounds only.

Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

39


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013 Fanshawe, J R Hannon, R Suroor, Saeed Bin OBrien, A P Stoute, Sir Michael

3 10 15 23 8

1 2 3 4 1

33% 20% 20% 17% 13%

1.00 12.67 -1.90 -13.52 -3.00

3 3 5 9 4

100% 30% 33% 39% 50%

9 10 11 12

Track Yarmouth Epsom York Ascot Sandown Newmarket (July)

Bets 1 3 7 52 14 20

Wins 1 1 2 9 2 1

Win% 100% 33% 29% 17% 14% 5%

£1 bet 4.00 18.00 4.50 -23.08 -7.50 -16.00

Places 1 1 4 21 5 5

Place% 100% 33% 57% 40% 36% 25%

Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days

Runs 5 32 58 25 2 1

Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

Winner Heavy Metal Harbour Watch) Libranno Dick Turpin (IRE) Able Speed (IRE) Strike The Deal Hamoody (USA) Always Hopeful Montgomerys Arch Carrizo Creek (IRE) Revenue (IRE) Mister Cosmi Pyrus (USA) Bachir (IRE) Muqtarib (USA) Daggers Drawn

SP Trainer Age-Wt OR 9/1 Johnston, M 2 9-0 95 Evens Hannon, R 2 9-0 0 5/4 Hannon, R 2 9-3 0 6/5 Hannon, R 2 9-0 0 5/1 Hannon, R 2 9-0 0 7/1 Noseda, J 2 9-0 0 5/6 Chapple-Hyam, P W 2 9-0 0 12/1 ONeill, E J 2 8-11 0 13/2 Chapple-Hyam, P W 2 8-11 0 5/1 Meehan, B J 2 8-11 0 12/1 Bell, M L W 2 8-11 0 7/1 Johnston, M 2 8-11 0 11/4 OBrien, A P 2 8-11 0 11/8 Gosden, J H M 2 8-11 0 9/2 Dunlop, J L 2 8-11 0 8/13 Cecil, H R A 2 8-11 0

Jockey Fanning, Joe Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Ahern, Eddie Munro, Alan Gibbons, Graham Fortune, Jimmy Fallon, K Holland, Darryll Darley, K Kinane, M J Dettori, L Hills, R Fallon, K

Going Good Good To Firm Good Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Soft Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good Good To Soft Good To Firm

Dist 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f 6f

Stall 5 2 6 7 2 6 2 1 4 2 3 3 3 3 1 3

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Fifteenth Twentieth Disqualified

Runs 64 12 15 10 10 4 3 1 1 1 2

Wins 10 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -21.47 -6.5 -9 -2 11 -4 7 -1 -1 -1 -2

Win% 16% 8% 7% 10% 20% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 26 3 4 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0

Place% 41% 25% 27% 20% 30% 50% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%

£1 bet 2.5 -0.17 12.75 -7.5 -3 -4.75 -9.8 -8

Win% 13% 25% 31% 7% 8% 13% 8% 0%

Places 6 8 5 4 6 3 4 1

Place% 38% 50% 31% 27% 46% 20% 33% 13%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Runs 16 16 16 15 13 15 12 8

Wins 2 4 5 1 1 2 1 0

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

0 0 0 0

-5 -4 -2 -2

0% 0% 0% 0%

0 3 0 1

0% 75% 0% 50%

Wins 0 2 9 4 1 0

£1 bet -5 -11 -22.22 7.5 1.75 -1

Win% 0% 6% 16% 16% 50% 0%

Places 2 9 20 9 1 0

Place% 40% 28% 34% 36% 50% 0%

Runs 17 16 18 15 14 18 11 6 5 3 1

Wins 6 2 1 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -4.72 -6.25 -12 16 7 -5 -11 -6 -5 -3 -1

Win% 35% 13% 6% 27% 14% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 8 8 5 7 4 6 2 0 0 1 0

Place% 47% 50% 28% 47% 29% 33% 18% 0% 0% 33% 0%

Trainer Dunlop, J L Cecil, H R A Bell, M L W Chapple-Hyam, P W Noseda, J Johnston, M ONeill, E J OBrien, A P Gosden, J H M Hannon, R Meehan, B J

Bets 1 1 1 2 3 7 4 4 5 21 12

Wins 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 4 1

Win% 100% 100% 100% 100% 33% 29% 25% 25% 20% 19% 8%

£1 bet 4.50 0.62 12.00 7.33 5.00 11.00 9.00 -0.25 -2.62 -8.55 -6.00

Places 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 2 8 2

Place% 100% 100% 100% 100% 33% 43% 50% 75% 40% 38% 17%

Track Folkestone Curragh Goodwood Salisbury Chepstow Newmarket (July) Ascot Newbury

Bets 1 5 3 3 3 31 16 25

Wins 1 2 1 1 1 6 2 2

Win% 100% 40% 33% 33% 33% 19% 13% 8%

£1 bet 6.50 4.75 2.50 -0.80 -0.62 -7.30 5.00 -4.00

Places 1 3 1 1 2 12 4 7

Place% 100% 60% 33% 33% 67% 39% 25% 28%

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET

DAY THREE: RICHMOND STAKES Date 2.08.2012 29.07.2011 30.07.2010 31.07.2009 1.08.2008 3.08.2007 4.08.2006 29.07.2005 30.07.2004 29.07.2003 30.07.2002 31.07.2001 3.08.2000 28.07.1999 30.07.1998 31.07.1997

5 4 2 2

WINNING TRAINERS

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

ON S E S U N BO S T E B I T L MU % ON A NKEE, 20 / HEINZ A Y / 5 1 L A 3

L6 10% ON 5% ON A 2 & N IA D L31/CANA

Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

40


BIG-RACE TRENDS DAY THREE: GOODWOOD CUP Date 2.08.2012 28.07.2011 29.07.2010 30.07.2009 31.07.2008 2.08.2007 3.08.2006 28.07.2005 29.07.2004 31.07.2003 1.08.2002 2.08.2001 3.08.2000 29.07.1999 30.07.1998 31.07.1997

Winner SP Trainer Saddlers Rock (IRE) 2/1 Oxx, John M Opinion Poll (IRE) 9/2 Al Zarooni, M Illustrious Blue 8/1 Knight, W J Schiaparelli (GER) 6/4 Suroor, Saeed Bin Yeats (IRE) 8/15 OBrien, A P Allegretto (IRE) 8/1 Stoute, Sir Michael Yeats (IRE) 10/11 OBrien, A P Distinction (IRE) 11/4 Stoute, Sir Michael Darasim (IRE) 11/8 Johnston, M Persian Punch (IRE) 7/2 Elsworth, D R C Jardines Lookout 10/1 Jarvis, A P Persian Punch (IRE) 6/1 Elsworth, D R C Royal Rebel 10/1 Johnston, M Kayf Tara 9/4 Suroor, Saeed Bin Double Trigger (IRE) 11/2 Johnston, M Double Trigger (IRE) 16/1 Johnston, M

Age-Wt OR 4 9-7 114 5 9-7 116 7 9-7 110 6 9-7 115 7 9-12 0 4 9-5 107 5 9-10 0 6 9-5 117 6 9-4 115 10 9-4 114 5 9-2 111 8 9-5 119 4 9-2 109 5 9-7 119 7 9-5 119 6 9-0 0

Jockey Murtagh, J Dettori, L Crowley, Jim Dettori, L Murtagh, J Moore, Ryan Kinane, M J Kinane, M J Fanning, Joe Dwyer, Martin Kinane, M J Quinn, T Kinane, M J Dettori, L Holland, Darryll Roberts, M

Going Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Soft Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good To Soft Good To Firm

Dist 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m 2m

Stall 10 16 2 8 3 5 9 9 2 2 7 13 7 4 7 10

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Nineteenth Twenty Eighth Pulled Up

Runs 31 31 25 23 11 11 9 6 4 4 1 2 2 1 1 3

Wins 3 6 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -23.06 11.75 -13.87 -23 -11 -11 -9 11 16 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3

Win% 10% 19% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 5 10 11 5 4 3 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Place% 16% 32% 44% 22% 36% 27% 11% 50% 75% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

£1 bet -16 -0.12 -14.47 -10.75 -6 -16 13.5 -12.5 -6.34 10 -6 -4 4 -3 -3 3.5

Win% 0% 19% 6% 7% 7% 0% 20% 7% 17% 20% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 50%

Places 1 5 5 3 5 4 5 4 6 4 1 1 1 0 0 2

Place% 6% 31% 31% 21% 33% 25% 33% 27% 50% 40% 17% 25% 33% 0% 0% 100%

£1 bet -1 5

Win% 0% 17%

Places 1 2

Place% 100% 33%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Runs 16 16 16 14 15 16 15 15 12 10 6 4 3 3 3 2

Wins 0 3 1 1 1 0 3 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days

Runs 1 6

Wins 0 1

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days G) 121-365 days H) > 365 days

44 91 14 1 5 3

3 12 0 0 0 0

-28 -19.18 -14 -1 -5 -3

7% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0%

11 30 0 1 1 0

25% 33% 0% 100% 20% 0%

£1 bet 6.82 2 -11 -5 -20 -5 14 -11 -15 -10 -1 -4 -2 -4 -2

Win% 47% 19% 5% 7% 0% 6% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 10 6 4 3 8 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

Place% 59% 38% 20% 21% 40% 31% 29% 27% 20% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Win% 100% 100% 100% 50% 33% 24% 22% 22% 17%

£1 bet 8.00 4.50 2.00 -0.56 8.00 19.88 3.75 2.50 -6.25

Places 1 1 1 2 2 8 2 2 6

Place% 100% 100% 100% 50% 67% 47% 22% 22% 50%

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Runs 17 16 20 14 20 16 14 11 15 10 1 4 2 4 2

Wins 8 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Knight, W J Al Zarooni, Mahmood Oxx, John M OBrien, A P Jarvis, A P Johnston, M Stoute, Sir Michael Elsworth, D R C Suroor, Saeed Bin

Bets 1 1 1 4 3 17 9 9 12

Wins 1 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 2

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Leopardstown Ascot Newmarket (July) York Sandown

Bets 2 79 10 13 32

Wins 1 11 1 1 2

Win% 50% 14% 10% 8% 6%

£1 bet 9.00 -10.93 -7.50 -9.25 -18.50

Places 1 29 3 2 7

Place% 50% 37% 30% 15% 22%

DAY THREE: LILLIE LANGTRY STAKES Date Winner 2.08.2012 Wild Coco (GER) 28.07.2011 Meeznah (USA) 29.07.2010 Eastern Aria (UAE) 30.07.2009 Sevenna (FR) 31.07.2008 Gravitation 2.08.2007 Hi Calypso (IRE) 3.08.2006 Tartouche 28.07.2005 Tartouche 31.07.2004 Astrocharm (IRE) 28.09.2003 Supremacy 2003 race run at Ascot

SP Trainer 6/1 Cecil, H R A 6/1 Lanigan, D R 16/1 Johnston, M 12/1 Cecil, H R A 9/2 Jarvis, W 3/1 Stoute, Sir Michael 7/2 Herries, Lady 7/2 Herries, Lady 12/1 Tompkins, M H Evens Stoute, Sir Michael

Age-Wt OR 4 9-5 113 4 9-6 109 4 9-6 104 4 9-6 85 3 8-6 100 3 8-7 86 5 9-6 103 4 9-7 97 5 9-6 83 4 9-3 107

Jockey Queally, T P Dettori, L Hills, R Queally, T P Munro, Alan Moore, Ryan Sanders, Seb Sanders, Seb Callan, N Fallon, K

Going Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Soft Good To Firm Firm

Dist 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 1m6f 2m

Stall 5 5 12 6 3 5 5 8 1 1

S E S U N O SUPER B I BETS* ULT % ON A ONONM NKEE, 50 3/ HEINZ A Y / 5 1 L A L6

ON A 15% N & 100% IA D A N A C L31/ *Applies to super bonus races only Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

41


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013 HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth

Runs 19 19 5 6 11 8 3 5 5 3 1 1

Wins 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

£1 bet 19.5 13 -5 -6 -11 -8 -3 2 -5 -3 -1 -1

Win% 21% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 10 8 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0

Place% 53% 42% 20% 0% 9% 0% 67% 20% 20% 0% 0%

£1 bet 5 -9 -4.5 -9 13.5 3 -9 -2.5 -6 -4 -2 15 -1

Win% 20% 0% 10% 0% 44% 10% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0%

Places 2 2 4 2 4 1 3 2 3 2 0 1 0

Place% 20% 22% 40% 22% 44% 10% 33% 29% 50% 50% 0% 50% 0%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Runs 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 7 6 4 2 2 1

Wins 2 0 1 0 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN

Lanigan, D R Jarvis, W Johnston, M Tompkins, M H Cecil, H R A Stoute, Sir Michael

1 2 2 2 8 10

1 1 1 1 2 2

100% 50% 50% 50% 25% 20%

6.00 3.50 15.00 11.00 12.00 -4.00

1 1 1 2 2 3

100% 50% 50% 100% 25% 30%

Track Chester Newmarket (Rowley) Salisbury Pontefract Goodwood York Newmarket (July) Haydock

Bets 1 1 2 4 4 5 20 15

Wins 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1

Win% 100% 100% 50% 25% 25% 20% 15% 7%

£1 bet 1.00 3.50 2.00 9.00 9.00 2.00 9.50 -10.50

Places 1 1 1 2 1 3 6 3

Place% 100% 100% 50% 50% 25% 60% 30% 20%

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

DAY FOUR: GLORIOUS STAKES Date 3.08.2012 29.07.2011 30.07.2010 31.07.2009 1.08.2008 3.08.2007 4.08.2006 29.07.2005 30.07.2004 1.08.2003 2.08.2002 3.08.2001 4.08.2000 30.07.1999 31.07.1998 1.08.1997

Winner SP Quest For Peace 5/1 Drunken Sailor (IRE) 9/2 Redwood 7/1 Illustrious Blue 9/1 Sixties Icon 10/3 Purple Moon (IRE) 11/2 Crosspeace (IRE) 10/3 Mamool (IRE) 9/4 Alkaased (USA) 11/4 Researched (IRE) 8/1 Darasim (IRE) 5/2 Compton Bolter 12/1 Murghem (IRE) 5/2 Danish Rhapsody 9/1 Sabadilla (USA) 7/2 Bahamian Sunshine 20/1

Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days G) 121-365 days I) First Run

Runs 2 20 28 29 6 1 2

Wins 1 2 2 2 2 1 0

£1 bet 11 4 -20.5 -12 3 6 -2

Win% 50% 10% 7% 7% 33% 100% 0%

Places 1 4 8 8 2 1 2

Place% 50% 20% 29% 28% 33% 100% 100%

Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Runs 12 10 12 7 9 10 8 6 5 4 2 2 1

Wins 2 2 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -6 -1 7.5 -7 4 3 -8 11 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1

Win% 17% 20% 25% 0% 11% 10% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 6 5 6 2 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

Place% 50% 50% 50% 29% 33% 20% 0% 17% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Fourteenth Fifteenth Seventeenth Nineteenth

Trainer Herries, Lady

Bets 2

Wins 2

Win% 100%

£1 bet 7.00

Places 2

Place% 100%

Stall 1

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET

WINNING TRAINERS

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Trainer Cumani, L M Cumani, L M Hills, B W Knight, W J Noseda, J Cumani, L M Johnston, M Suroor, Saeed Bin Cumani, L M Stoute, Sir Michael Johnston, M Butler, G A Johnston, M Herries, Lady Gosden, J H M Akehurst, R

Age-Wt OR 4 9-0 111 6 9-0 114 4 9-0 113 6 9-0 107 5 9-0 114 4 9-1 97 4 9-4 108 6 9-4 114 4 8-12 105 4 9-1 104 4 9-0 103 4 9-7 110 5 9-7 110 6 9-7 110 4 9-7 110 6 8-7 95

Jockey Fallon, K Fallon, K Hills, Michael Crowley, Jim Murtagh, J Spencer, Jamie Ffrench, Royston McEvoy, Kerrin Fortune, Jimmy Fallon, K Darley, K Darley, K Holland, Darryll Stevens, Gary Dettori, L Weaver, J

Going Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Soft Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good To Soft Good To Firm

Dist 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f 1m4f

Stall 1 7 10 6 7 8 6 8 1 12 3 9 7 3 3 1

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Runs 25 20 16 20 15 12 7 6 2 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 1

Wins 5 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -0.17 -8.5 -10.5 -0.5 -10.5 -2 -7 -6 -2 3 -4 22.33 8 -2 -1 -1 -1

Win% 20% 10% 6% 10% 7% 8% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 67% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 13 7 7 6 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0

Place% 52% 35% 44% 30% 7% 17% 14% 17% 0% 33% 25% 67% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

£1 bet 14.75

Win% 19%

Places 6

Place% 38%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Runs 16

Wins 3

S E S U N O 10% B RRECT O ON ALL C STS FORECA

*Applies to horses and greyhounds only.

Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

42


BIG-RACE TRENDS 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 15 16 15 15 12 9 7 4 4 2

0 3 0 0 2 3 2 1 1 0 1 0

-14 3 -15 -16 -0.67 -1.67 -2.25 4 1 -4 5 -2

0% 20% 0% 0% 13% 20% 17% 11% 14% 0% 25% 0%

3 7 5 4 2 5 5 2 1 1 2 1

21% 47% 33% 25% 13% 33% 42% 22% 14% 25% 50% 50%

£1 bet -1.17 -1 -15.75 16.83 -9 -1 -10.75

Win% 22% 7% 10% 18% 0% 0% 7%

Places 5 4 17 12 3 1 2

Place% 56% 29% 33% 30% 33% 100% 14%

£1 bet 0.33 -3.67 5.5 -15 -7 -4 17 1 -9 -4 -8

Win% 28% 17% 20% 0% 6% 7% 14% 8% 0% 0% 0%

Places 9 8 8 7 4 1 4 3 0 0 0

Place% 50% 44% 53% 47% 25% 7% 29% 25% 0% 0% 0%

Win% 100% 100% 100% 40% 33% 30% 20% 17% 17% 11% 9%

£1 bet 20.00 9.00 3.33 11.75 7.00 1.33 8.00 2.00 -1.50 -5.75 -2.00

Places 1 1 1 6 1 7 2 2 2 1 6

Place% 100% 100% 100% 60% 33% 70% 40% 33% 33% 11% 55%

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days G) 121-365 days

Runs 9 14 51 40 9 1 14

Wins 2 1 5 7 0 0 1

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Runs 18 18 15 15 16 14 14 12 9 4 8

Wins 5 3 3 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Akehurst, R Knight, W J Noseda, J Cumani, L M Herries, Lady Johnston, M Butler, G A Hills, B W Gosden, J H M Suroor, Saeed Bin Stoute, Sir Michael

Bets 1 1 1 10 3 10 5 6 6 9 11

Wins 1 1 1 4 1 3 1 1 1 1 1

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Kempton Ascot Goodwood Haydock Newbury Newmarket (July) York

Bets 2 24 8 5 12 28 20

Wins 1 6 2 1 2 3 1

Win% 50% 25% 25% 20% 17% 11% 5%

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

£1 bet 1.25 29.33 -0.17 -1.25 11.00 -12.00 -11.00

Places 1 7 5 1 3 11 6

Place% 50% 29% 63% 20% 25% 39% 30%

DAY FOUR: THOROUGHBRED STAKES Date 3.08.2012 3.08.2012 29.07.2011 31.07.2010 1.08.2009 2.08.2008 4.08.2007 5.08.2006 30.07.2005 31.07.2004 2.08.2003 3.08.2002 4.08.2001 5.08.2000 31.07.1999 1.08.1998

Winner SP Archbishop (USA) 10/1 Trumpet Major (IRE) 6/1 Neebras (IRE) 4/1 Critical Moment 7/2 Zacinto 5/2 River Proud (USA) 5/2 Dubais Touch 16/1 Prince Of Light (IRE) 9/2 Forward Move (IRE) 14/1 Fongs Thong (USA) 6/4 Court Masterpiece 5/1 Where Or When 13/8 Goggles (IRE) 7/1 Adilabad (USA) 10/3 Slip Stream (USA) 4/5 Great Dane (IRE) 10/3

Trainer Meehan, B J Hannon, R Al Zarooni, M Hills, B W Stoute, Sir Michael Cole, P F I Johnston, M Johnston, M Hannon, R Meehan, B J Dunlop, E A L Mills, T G Candy, H Stoute, Sir Michael Suroor, Saeed Bin Cecil, H R A

Age-Wt OR 3 9-0 107 3 9-4 114 3 9-0 117 3 9-0 105 3 9-0 107 3 9-0 112 3 9-4 110 3 9-0 109 3 8-12 103 3 8-12 108 3 8-13 105 3 8-12 110 3 8-12 100 3 8-12 107 3 8-12 0 3 8-12 0

Jockey Dettori, L Hughes, Richard Dettori, L Hills, Michael Moore, Ryan Hughes, Richard Ffrench, Royston Fanning, Joe Moore, Ryan Fortune, Jimmy Murtagh, J Kinane, M J Rutter, C Eddery, Pat Dettori, L Fallon, K

Going Good Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Soft Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Soft Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good

Dist 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m

Stall 13 3 3 3 6 5 5 9 2 1 7 4 7 2 2 4

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Fourteenth Sixteenth Seventeenth Nineteenth Twenty First

Runs 21 21 14 13 10 10 10 3 5 4 2 2 3 2 1 1 2 1

Wins 2 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -14 16.5 -7.87 -4.5 -3.04 -10 -10 -3 17.5 3 -2 -2 3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1

Win% 10% 19% 14% 15% 20% 0% 0% 0% 40% 25% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 7 6 5 6 6 1 2 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0

Place% 33% 29% 36% 46% 60% 10% 20% 0% 40% 25% 0% 0% 67% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0%

£1 bet -12.5 8.13 3.5 -7.04 6.5 -8.5 1 -11 -1.5 -5 -4 -2 10 -1 -1

Win% 7% 23% 23% 14% 14% 8% 15% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

Places 4 8 7 5 4 3 3 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 0

Place% 27% 62% 54% 36% 29% 25% 23% 0% 29% 40% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

£1 bet 12.5

Win% 20%

Places 3

Place% 30%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Runs 15 13 13 14 14 12 13 11 7 5 4 2 1 1 1

Wins 1 3 3 2 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days

Runs 10

Wins 2

S E S U N O 10% B RRECT O ON ALL C STS TRICA

*Applies to horses and greyhounds only.

Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

43


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013 B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days G) 121-365 days

12 41 44 10 5 4

1 4 3 3 2 1

-9.5 -7.5 -32.04 9.8 2.83 -0.5

8% 10% 7% 30% 40% 25%

2 11 13 6 3 1

17% 27% 30% 60% 60% 25%

Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Runs 19 12 16 17 11 14 12 10 6 4 1 3

Wins 3 6 3 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -11.2 12.29 2.5 -17 -3 -3 -12 22 -6 -4 -1 -3

Win% 16% 50% 19% 0% 9% 7% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 10 9 5 0 5 3 2 3 1 0 0 1

Place% 53% 75% 31% 0% 45% 21% 17% 30% 17% 0% 0% 33%

Trainer Hills, B W Al Zarooni, Mahmood Candy, H Mills, T G Dunlop, E A L Johnston, M Meehan, B J Cecil, H R A Cole, P F I Stoute, Sir Michael Hannon, R Suroor, Saeed Bin

Bets 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 11 12 9

Wins 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1

Win% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 33% 25% 18% 17% 11%

£1 bet 3.50 4.00 6.00 0.63 4.00 18.50 9.50 1.33 -0.50 -3.17 10.00 -7.20

Places 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 4 5 3

Place% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 75% 50% 33% 25% 36% 42% 33%

Track Doncaster Curragh Newmarket (Rowley) Goodwood Sandown York Newbury Newmarket (July) Ascot

Bets 5 2 7 9 8 9 10 25 35

Wins 3 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 2

Win% 60% 50% 43% 22% 13% 11% 10% 8% 6%

£1 bet 10.83 5.00 11.83 13.50 7.00 -7.20 -7.50 -14.50 -27.37

Places 4 1 4 4 1 3 2 6 9

Place% 80% 50% 57% 44% 13% 33% 20% 24% 26%

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET

WINNING TRAINERS

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

1.08.2003 2.08.2002 2.08.2001 3.08.2000 29.07.1999 30.07.1998 31.07.1997

DAY FOUR: BETFRED MILE Date 3.08.2012 29.07.2011 30.07.2010 31.07.2009 1.08.2008 3.08.2007 4.08.2006 29.07.2005 30.07.2004

Winner SP Fulbright 7/1 Boom And Bust 22/1 Sea Lord (IRE) 6/1 Laa Rayb (USA) 25/1 Fifteen Love (USA) 5/1 Third Set (IRE) 5/2 Spectait 9/2 Unshakable (IRE) 7/1 Ancient World (USA) 9/2

Trainer Johnston, M Tregoning, M P Johnston, M Johnston, M Charlton, R Charlton, R Prescott, Sir Mark Jones, Bob Suroor, Saeed Bin

Age-Wt OR 3 8-13 102 4 8-10 94 3 9-3 106 5 9-6 105 3 8-12 100 4 8-4 90 4 8-9 95 6 8-1 87 4 9-10 103

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Jockey Sousa, Silvestre De Turner, Hayley Ffrench, Royston Fortune, Jimmy Drowne, Steve Quinn, Jimmy Sanders, Seb Norton, Francis Dettori, L

Going Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Soft Good To Firm

Dist 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m

Stall 8 1 7 15 1 1 5 3 3

Lady Bear (IRE) Smirk Riberac Persiano Lonesome Dude For Your Eyes Only Fly To The Stars

10/1 12/1 12/1 10/1 7/1 14/1 14/1

Fahey, R A Elsworth, D R C Johnston, M Fanshawe, J R Stoute, Sir Michael Easterby, T D Johnston, M

5 4 5 5 4 4 3

8-6 92 9-5 102 8-12 95 8-12 97 9-7 103 9-6 102 9-6 106

Hanagan, Paul Darley, K Darley, K Harrison, D Stevens, Gary Weaver, J Peslier, O

Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good To Soft Good To Firm

1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m

1 2 4 5 9 15 4

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Fourteenth Fifteenth Sixteenth

Runs 45 38 33 29 25 23 16 19 11 18 7 12 5 6 3 6

Wins 4 4 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

£1 bet -11.5 -3.5 -20 -29 20.5 -12 -16 -19 -11 -18 -7 -12 -5 20 -3 9

Win% 9% 11% 3% 0% 16% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 17%

Places 14 9 8 3 7 2 2 3 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 2

Place% 31% 24% 24% 10% 28% 9% 13% 16% 9% 11% 0% 17% 20% 33% 33% 33%

£1 bet 27.5 -2 0.5 12 3.5 -15 -9 -8 -7 -16 -16 -14 -16 -16 28 -15 -16 -14 -14 -14 -9 -9

Win% 25% 7% 15% 13% 15% 0% 6% 6% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 6 5 5 5 2 5 6 4 2 3 2 4 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 1 1

Place% 38% 33% 38% 31% 15% 33% 38% 25% 13% 19% 13% 29% 6% 13% 15% 20% 6% 0% 14% 14% 11% 11%

£1 bet -45.5 -27 -34.5 -20.5 -4 -5

Win% 4% 4% 7% 4% 0% 0%

Places 13 9 27 15 0 0

Place% 19% 16% 20% 31% 0% 0%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Runs 16 15 13 16 13 15 16 16 15 16 16 14 16 16 13 15 16 14 14 14 9 9

Wins 4 1 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days G) 121-365 days

Runs 68 55 134 49 4 5

Wins 3 2 9 2 0 0

PS

SHO 0 5 3 1 R OVE NE O H P E E R F 221 1 2 2 0 0 8 0

Freephone from landline only. Minimum £10 stake in call centre. Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

44


BIG-RACE TRENDS POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Runs 16 19 16 22 22 12 19 15 13 20 21 12 12 21 17 12 8 15 17 3 4 1

Wins 2 5 1 1 3 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -7 15.5 -8 -11 15 -12 11 -15 -13 3 -21 -12 -12 5 -17 -12 -8 -15 -17 -3 -4 -1

Win% 13% 26% 6% 5% 14% 0% 11% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 7 9 5 8 7 2 2 2 3 4 2 0 2 4 1 1 0 2 3 0 0 0

Place% 44% 47% 31% 36% 32% 17% 11% 13% 23% 20% 10% 0% 17% 19% 6% 8% 0% 13% 18% 0% 0% 0%

Win% 40% 33% 33% 33% 25% 25% 20% 20% 19% 14% 8%

£1 bet 4.50 20.00 12.00 2.50 1.50 4.00 6.00 8.00 43.00 1.00 -1.00

Places 4 3 1 2 1 1 3 1 8 1 1

Place% 80% 100% 33% 67% 25% 25% 60% 20% 31% 14% 8%

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Charlton, R Tregoning, M P Easterby, T D Suroor, Saeed Bin Prescott, Sir Mark Jones, Bob Fanshawe, J R Elsworth, D R C Johnston, M Stoute, Sir Michael Fahey, R A

Bets 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 26 7 12

Wins 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Windsor Nottingham Sandown Newmarket (July) Lingfield Ascot Newbury

Bets 2 2 37 53 13 70 36

Wins 1 1 6 4 1 2 1

Win% 50% 50% 16% 8% 8% 3% 3%

£1 bet 21.00 3.50 31.00 -4.00 -7.50 -55.50 -23.00

Places 1 2 8 10 2 21 6

Place% 50% 100% 22% 19% 15% 30% 17%

DAY FOUR: KING GEORGE STAKES Date 3.08.2012 28.07.2011 29.07.2010 30.07.2009 31.07.2008 2.08.2007 3.08.2006 28.07.2005 29.07.2004

Winner Ortensia (AUS) Masamah (IRE) Borderlescott Kingsgate Native Enticing (IRE) Moorhouse Lad La Cucaracha Fire Up The Band Ringmoor Down

SP 6/1 4/1 9/2 7/1 9/1 10/1 7/2 10/1 10/1

Trainer Messara, P Ryan, K A Bastiman, R Stoute, Sir Michael Haggas, W J Smart, B Hills, B W Nicholls, D Arbuthnot, D W P

Age-Wt OR 7 9-5 115 5 9-0 107 8 9-0 112 4 9-0 116 4 8-11 104 4 9-0 99 5 8-11 111 6 9-0 107 5 8-11 106

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Jockey Buick, William Spencer, Jamie Fallon, K Moore, Ryan Murtagh, J Moore, Ryan Hills, Michael Nicholls, Adrian T Quinn, T

Going Good Good To Firm Good Good Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Soft Good To Firm

Dist 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f

Stall 13 8 8 17 6 4 17 1 2

31.07.2003 1.08.2002 31.07.2001 1.08.2000 27.07.1999 28.07.1998 29.07.1997

The Tatling (IRE) Agnetha (GER) Dietrich (USA) Cassandra Go (IRE) Rudis Pet (IRE) Land Of Dreams Averti (IRE)

11/4 11/2 11/2 11/2 6/1 5/1 11/1

Bradley, J M Weld, D K OBrien, A P Wragg, G Nicholls, D Johnston, M Muir, W R

6 3 3 4 5 3 6

9-0 109 8-7 0 8-12 0 8-10 108 9-0 97 8-7 112 9-0 0

Holland, Darryll Kinane, M J Kinane, M J Roberts, M Sanders, Seb Holland, Darryll Fallon, K

Good Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good To Firm

5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f 5f

8 1 4 14 6 12 13

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Eleventh Twelfth Thirteenth Fourteenth

Runs 39 27 23 19 17 20 14 8 11 4 14 6 5 3

Wins 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1

£1 bet -16 -14 -2.75 -1 -5 -20 -14 -8 -11 -4 -3 4 3 3

Win% 8% 7% 13% 11% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 17% 20% 33%

Places 7 8 8 7 3 2 1 0 1 1 5 1 1 1

Place% 18% 30% 35% 37% 18% 10% 7% 0% 9% 25% 36% 17% 20% 33%

£1 bet 1.5 -4 -16 1.5 -15 4 -15 -1.75 -16 -15 -15 -9 5 -3.5 -9 -5 7.5 -2

Win% 13% 7% 0% 13% 0% 15% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 7% 14% 10% 0% 0% 40% 0%

Places 3 3 2 3 2 5 5 3 1 2 2 3 5 1 1 2 4 1

Place% 19% 20% 13% 19% 13% 38% 33% 19% 6% 13% 13% 20% 36% 10% 11% 40% 80% 50%

£1 bet -15 -8.25 -47.5 -16 -9 -2 -5

Win% 5% 8% 7% 9% 0% 0% 0%

Places 4 2 29 12 0 0 0

Place% 18% 8% 27% 23% 0% 0% 0%

Win% 29% 26%

Places 10 8

Place% 59% 42%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Runs 16 15 16 16 15 13 15 16 16 15 15 15 14 10 9 5 5 2

Wins 2 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 2 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days G) 121-365 days

Runs 22 24 109 53 9 2 5

Wins 1 2 8 5 0 0 0

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2

Runs 17 19

Wins 5 5

£1 bet 10.75 11.5

FRED’ T E B ‘ T X TE 0 TO 8966 .COM BETFRED Text message charged at standard network rate. Betfred rules apply. Over 18s only. Please gamble responsibly - gambleaware.co.uk

45


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2013 HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

15 15 16 18 22 11 16 17 17 9 14 8 11 2

1 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-7 -15 7 3 -11 -11 -16 -17 -17 -9 -14 -8 -11 -2

7% 0% 13% 11% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

4 8 3 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

27% 53% 19% 44% 23% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0%

Trainer Messara, P Wragg, G Weld, D K Bastiman, R Johnston, M Stoute, Sir Michael Arbuthnot, D W P OBrien, A P Hills, B W Muir, W R Bradley, J M Haggas, W J Nicholls, D Smart, B Ryan, K A

Bets 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 16 8 11

Wins 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1

Win% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 33% 33% 33% 25% 20% 17% 17% 13% 13% 9%

£1 bet 6.00 5.50 4.50 3.50 4.00 5.00 8.00 3.50 0.50 7.00 -2.25 4.00 2.00 3.00 -6.00

Places 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 7 1 5

Place% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 33% 33% 33% 50% 20% 50% 33% 44% 13% 45%

Track Newbury York Ascot Newmarket (July) Curragh Chester

Bets 9 20 47 39 13 29

Wins 2 3 5 3 1 2

Win% 22% 15% 11% 8% 8% 7%

£1 bet 6.75 2.50 -9.50 -16.50 -6.50 -12.50

Places 2 7 10 8 4 6

Place% 22% 35% 21% 21% 31% 21%

WINNING TRAINERS

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT

Previous Place First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Twelfth Thirteenth

DAY FIVE: NASSAU STAKES Date 4.08.2012 30.07.2011 31.07.2010 1.08.2009 2.08.2008 4.08.2007 5.08.2006 30.07.2005 31.07.2004 2.08.2003 3.08.2002 4.08.2001 5.08.2000 31.07.1999 1.08.1998 2.08.1997

Winner SP Trainer The Fugue 11/4 Gosden, J H M Midday 6/4 Cecil, H R A Midday 15/8 Cecil, H R A Midday 11/2 Cecil, H R A Halfway To Heaven 5/1 OBrien, A P Peeping Fawn (USA) 2/1 OBrien, A P Ouija Board Evens Dunlop, E A L Alexander Goldrun 13/8 Bolger, J S Favourable Terms 11/2 Stoute, Sir Michael Russian Rhythm 4/5 Stoute, Sir Michael Islington (IRE) 10/3 Stoute, Sir Michael Lailani 5/4 Dunlop, E A L Crimplene (IRE) 7/4 Brittain, C E Zahrat Dubai 5/1 Suroor, Saeed Bin Alborada 4/1 Prescott, Sir Mark Ryafan (USA) 9/4 Gosden, J H M

Age-Wt OR 3 8-11 111 5 9-6 119 4 9-6 120 3 8-10 118 3 8-10 0 3 8-10 0 5 9-5 120 4 9-3 0 4 9-2 112 3 8-6 120 3 8-6 110 3 8-6 104 3 8-6 121 3 8-6 115 3 8-9 107 3 8-9 0

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

30th July - 3rd August

Jockey Hughes, Richard Queally, T P Queally, T P Queally, T P Murtagh, J Murtagh, J Dettori, L Manning, K J Fallon, K Fallon, K Fallon, K Dettori, L Robinson, Philip Stevens, Gary Duffield, G Hills, Michael

Going Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Soft Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Soft Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good Good To Firm

Dist 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f 1m2f

Stall 7 6 6 10 7 1 1 4 5 2 5 3 6 6 5 3

Runs 31 22 13 15 16 8 2 3 7 1 2 1

Wins 7 4 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

£1 bet -6.95 -10.24 -0.5 -15 -14 -1.5 -2 1.33 -7 -1 -2 -1

Win% 23% 18% 15% 0% 6% 13% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 12 9 5 4 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 1

Place% 39% 41% 38% 27% 6% 13% 50% 67% 0% 0% 100% 100%

£1 bet -11 -14.2 -10.5 -12.37 0.83 -0.87 -4.25 -10 -5 2.5 -1 -1

Win% 13% 6% 13% 7% 20% 27% 14% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0%

Places 7 4 4 3 5 8 4 2 0 2 1 1

Place% 44% 25% 25% 20% 33% 53% 29% 20% 0% 50% 100% 100%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Runs 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 10 5 4 1 1

Wins 2 1 2 1 3 4 2 0 0 1 0 0

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days G) 121-365 days

Runs 11 49 50 9 2

Wins 0 7 7 2 0

£1 bet -11 -22.87 -23.87 -0.12 -2

Win% 0% 14% 14% 22% 0%

Places 3 15 15 5 0

Place% 27% 31% 30% 56% 0%

Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Runs 16 16 18 15 16 17 12 10

Wins 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0

£1 bet 7.06 3.08 1 -15 -16 -17 -12 -10

Win% 56% 25% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Places 13 6 7 1 6 4 2 2

Place% 81% 38% 39% 7% 38% 24% 17% 20%

Trainer Dunlop, E A L Bolger, J S Cecil, H R A Gosden, J H M Stoute, Sir Michael Brittain, C E OBrien, A P Prescott, Sir Mark Suroor, Saeed Bin

Bets 4 3 11 8 12 5 10 6 7

Wins 2 1 3 2 3 1 2 1 1

Win% 50% 33% 27% 25% 25% 20% 20% 17% 14%

£1 bet 0.25 -0.37 0.88 -1.00 0.63 -2.25 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00

Places 3 3 8 4 5 1 5 1 2

Place% 75% 100% 73% 50% 42% 20% 50% 17% 29%

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET

WINNING TRAINERS

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BIG-RACE TRENDS TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Sandown Epsom Curragh Ascot Newmarket (July) York

Bets 4 9 31 19 26 10

Wins 1 2 6 3 3 1

Win% £1 bet Places Place% 25% -2.00 3 75% 22% 1.33 4 44% 19% -5.75 14 45% 16% -10.70 5 26% 12% -13.62 5 19% 10% -7.12 3 30%

DAY FIVE: STEWARDS’ CUP Date Winner SP 4.08.2012 Hawkeyethenoo 9/1 30.07.2011 Hoof It 13/2 31.07.2010 Evens And Odds 20/1 1.08.2009 Genki (IRE) 14/1 2.08.2008 Conquest (IRE) 40/1 4.08.2007 Zidane 6/1 5.08.2006 Borderlescott 10/1 30.07.2005 Gift Horse 9/2 31.07.2004 Pivotal Point 7/1 2.08.2003 Patavellian (IRE) 4/1 3.08.2002 Bond Boy 14/1 4.08.2001 Guinea Hunter (IRE) 33/1 5.08.2000 Tayseer (USA) 13/2 31.07.1999 Harmonic Way 12/1 1.08.1998 Superior Premium 14/1 2.08.1997 Danetime (IRE) 5/1

Trainer Goldie, J S Easterby, M W Nicholls, D Charlton, R Haggas, W J Fanshawe, J R Bastiman, R Nicholls, D Makin, P J Charlton, R Smart, B Easterby, T D Nicholls, D Charlton, R Fahey, R A Callaghan, N A

Age-Wt OR 6 9-9 103 4 10-0 111 6 8-10 98 5 9-1 96 4 8-9 95 5 9-1 100 4 9-5 102 5 9-7 96 4 8-11 91 5 8-11 95 5 8-2 83 5 9-0 98 6 8-11 93 4 8-6 92 4 8-12 99 3 8-10 100

Jockey Lee, G Fallon, K Cray, Billy Drowne, Steve ONeill, Dane Spencer, Jamie Ffrench, Royston Fallon, K Sanders, Seb Drowne, Steve Catlin, Chris Spencer, Jamie Hughes, Richard Hughes, Richard Winston, Robert Eddery, Pat

Going Good Good To Firm Good Soft Good Good To Firm Good To Firm Good To Soft Good To Firm Good Good To Firm Good Good Good Good Good To Firm

Dist Stall 6f 4 6f 18 6f 11 6f 19 6f 15 6f 17 6f 10 6f 10 6f 30 6f 4 6f 2 6f 12 6f 3 6f 23 6f 3 6f 26

HORSE’S PLACING LAST TIME OUT Previous Place Runs Wins £1 bet Win% Places Place% First 69 5 -30 7% 16 23% Second 47 3 -15 6% 10 21% Third 30 1 -22.5 3% 5 17% Fourth 32 1 -17 3% 8 25% Fifth 37 0 -37 0% 5 14% Sixth 27 0 -27 0% 2 7% Seventh 42 2 -25 5% 6 14% Eighth 23 0 -23 0% 0 0% Ninth 20 1 14 5% 2 10% Tenth 23 0 -23 0% 1 4% Eleventh 15 1 26 7% 1 7% Twelfth 16 1 5 6% 3 19% Thirteenth 10 0 -10 0% 1 10% Fourteenth 8 0 -8 0% 0 0% Fifteenth 10 0 -10 0% 1 10% Sixteenth 8 0 -8 0% 0 0% Seventeenth 7 0 -7 0% 0 0% Eighteenth 5 1 10 20% 1 20%

EFFECT OF THE DRAW Stall 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Runs Wins £1 bet Win% Places Place% 16 0 -16 0% 4 25% 15 1 0 7% 4 27% 16 2 6.5 13% 7 44% 16 2 -1 13% 2 13% 15 0 -15 0% 0 0% 16 0 -16 0% 2 13% 15 0 -15 0% 3 20% 16 0 -16 0% 3 19% 16 0 -16 0% 2 13% 16 2 0.5 13% 3 19% 15 1 6 7% 1 7% 15 1 19 7% 3 20% 15 0 -15 0% 2 13% 15 0 -15 0% 2 13% 15 1 26 7% 3 20% 16 0 -16 0% 1 6% 13 1 -6 8% 2 15% 16 1 -8.5 6% 3 19% 16 1 -1 6% 1 6% 16 0 -16 0% 0 0% 16 0 -16 0% 2 13% 15 0 -15 0% 2 13% 16 1 -3 6% 1 6% 16 0 -16 0% 1 6% 16 0 -16 0% 2 13% 16 1 -10 6% 2 13% 16 0 -16 0% 2 13%

28 29 30

14 0 -14 0% 2 14% 8 0 -8 0% 1 13% 8 1 0 13% 1 13%

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN Days Since Run A) 1-7 days B) 8-15 days C) 16-30 days D) 31-60 days E) 61-90 days F) 91-120 days

Runs 112 89 148 88 8 3

Wins 5 2 7 2 0 0

£1 bet -40 -68 -32 -75.5 -8 -3

Win% 4% 2% 5% 2% 0% 0%

Places 16 6 24 17 0 1

Place% 14% 7% 16% 19% 0% 33%

POSITION IN BETTING MARKET Position In Market 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Runs Wins £1 bet Win% Places Place% 20 4 8.5 20% 12 60% 15 3 3 20% 5 33% 18 2 5 11% 4 22% 26 1 -11 4% 8 31% 17 2 9 12% 4 24% 15 1 0 7% 4 27% 13 0 -13 0% 4 31% 9 0 -9 0% 0 0% 21 1 0 5% 3 14% 25 0 -25 0% 4 16% 14 0 -14 0% 1 7% 22 0 -22 0% 1 5% 23 0 -23 0% 0 0% 19 0 -19 0% 2 11% 5 0 -5 0% 0 0% 15 0 -15 0% 2 13% 16 1 18 6% 1 6% 23 0 -23 0% 4 17% 12 0 -12 0% 0 0% 22 1 19 5% 3 14%

WINNING TRAINERS Trainer Goldie, J S Callaghan, N A Haggas, W J Charlton, R Makin, P J Easterby, M W Bastiman, R Fanshawe, J R Smart, B Easterby, T D Nicholls, D Fahey, R A

Bets 2 2 3 9 4 4 5 5 6 9 58 20

Wins 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1

Win% 50% 50% 33% 33% 25% 25% 20% 20% 17% 11% 5% 5%

£1 bet 8.00 4.00 38.00 24.00 4.00 3.50 6.00 2.00 9.00 25.00 -24.00 -5.00

Places Place% 1 50% 2 100% 2 67% 3 33% 1 25% 1 25% 3 60% 4 80% 1 17% 1 11% 13 22% 5 25%

TRACKS WHERE WINNER RAN LAST TIME OUT Track Fairyhouse Epsom Chepstow Newmarket (July) Haydock Ascot York Newbury

Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Places Place% 1 1 100% 10.00 1 100% 6 1 17% -0.50 1 17% 9 1 11% 32.00 1 11% 53 3 6% -21.00 6 11% 17 1 6% -2.00 3 18% 133 6 5% -51.50 21 16% 50 2 4% -27.50 10 20% 45 1 2% -32.00 6 13%

RECORD OF CLAIMING JOCKEYS Claim 0 lbs 3 lbs 5 lbs 7 lbs

Bets Wins Win% £1 bet Places Place% 358 14 4% -172.50 52 15% 42 0 0% -42.00 5 12% 36 2 6% 0.00 6 17% 14 0 0% -14.00 1 7%

RECORD OF DISTANCE WINNERS Distance wins A) 0 B) 1 C) 2 D) 3 E) 4 G) 6-10

Bets 83 105 85 71 52 28

Wins 0 6 5 2 2 1

Win% 0% 6% 6% 3% 4% 4%

£1 bet -83.00 -14.50 -28.50 -29.50 -30.00 -17.00

Places 7 14 12 10 10 6

Place% 8% 13% 14% 14% 19% 21%

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FINDING WINNERS

Sir Henry Cecil’s genius shone through with Frankel

Old Vic was my pick T

Ian Heitman remembers a great of Henry Cecil’s past and looks to the future he sad news of Sir Henry Cecil’s passing away on 11th June hit the racing world hard, only a week before Royal Ascot, a meeting where he had trained a remarkable 75 winners during his long and illustrious career. Everyone who loves horse racing will have a favourite horse trained by one of Flat racing’s greatest trainers and for many it will arguably be the greatest Flat horse to ever race, Frankel. Whilst it would be hard to disagree, my favourite horse was Old Vic who Cecil trained to win two classics in 1989. I was just developing a serious interest in horse racing when Old Vic came along, he destroyed the French Derby field by seven lengths and followed up with an equally impressive win in the Irish Derby when he had been a serious doubt in the few days lead-

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ing up to the race. Sadly Old Vic and the 1989 Derby winner Nashwan never raced against each other so it’s hard to know which was the superior, Old Vic certainly had the stamina whereas Nashwan had the speed having won the 2000 Guineas on his first start of the season. Old Vic was kept in training as a fouryear-old but only had two runs, a disappointing third on his reappearance in the Hardwicke Stakes before finishing second to his stablemate Belmez in a high class renewal of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the pair having a great battle in the final furlong and a half with the three-year-old getting on top inside the last furlong. There is no doubt that Cecil will go down in racing history as one of the greatest trainers ever to train and the way he han-

dled Frankel to be unbeaten in 14 races over three seasons showed he never lost his magic touch. It is perhaps fitting that the only two year old to win for Cecil in 2013 was Joyeuse a half-sister to Frankel who made a winning debut at Lingfield on 28th May over 6f. A strong filly who looked more like Frankel than the other siblings Bullet Train, Noble Mission and Morpheus, Joyeuse won easily from a modest field and has a very bright future. Quite whether she is good enough to win the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot is another matter. There wouldn’t be a more poignant winner of any of the races at the Royal meeting if she does win given the affection shown for Cecil in recent years.


TALKING TWO-YEAR-OLDS Listed Review

There have been a few Listed races run over the last few weeks and each one saw an impressive winner. The 5f National Stakes was the second race on a high quality card at Sandown on 30th May and saw Clive Brittain’s filly Rizeena make all of the running under Ryan Moore beating Andhesontherun and Eastern Impact comfortably. Steventon Star was a big disappointment finishing fourth of the five runners, unable to quicken having travelled well to a furlong and half out. There is plenty more to come from Rizeena who has plenty of scope to progress and she looks sure to play a part in Royal Ascot. The Woodcote Stakes run at Epsom on Derby Day is a tough test for inexperienced two year olds, not only do they have to handle the tricky track, they also have to remain calm throughout the preliminaries with all the people in attendance and the constant noise through the PA system. A few of the horses got a bit edgy beforehand and sweated up, Cool Bahamian, Far Gaze and newcomer Soul Of Motion were all negatives in the paddock. Of those that took the eye, Ifwecan looked in good shape as did one of the joint favourites Thunder Strike. There was a lot to like about the way Thunder Strike won this Listed race, always going well close to the pace, he took the lead two furlongs out and was in no danger inside the last furlong, finishing three and a half lengths clear from Riverboat Springs who ran a strange race, a long way behind with two furlongs to go he finished best of all made up plenty of ground inside the last furlong. With Newmarket’s July Festival taking place in a few weeks, Thunder Strike looks like an ideal type for the Superlative Stakes. As for Riverboat Springs, he clearly has plenty of ability, he won on debut at Bath, but he won’t be able to get that far behind in better company next time. Ifwecan had a wide draw to contend with but that isn’t an excuse, he raced up with the pace but weakened in the final furlong, a flatter track will see him progress. Naas staged two Listed races on 3rd June and this year’s winners have plenty to live up to as the 2012 winners were Dawn Approach and Sky Lantern. This year’s colts race was won by Stubbs who kept on well to beat Sacha Park a maiden trained by Richard Hannon who was having only his second start. The fillies race was run in a much quicker

Thunder Strike

time than the colts race and won in very taking style by Sandiva trained by Richard Fahey. She followed up a debut win at Nottingham with an impressive win here, keeping on strongly beating Heart Focus with Richard Hannon’s Fig Roll keeping on at the one pace back in third. Aidan O’Brien sent a couple of very well bred fillies to make their racecourse debut’s in this race, Adeste Fideles is out of Irish 1000 Guineas winner Imagine and shaped with a lot of promise in fifth. Bracelet is from the family of Galileo and Sea The Stars and although she could only manage eighth of the 10 runners, has a lot more to offer, she got off the mark in a maiden at Leopardstown on 13th June. Sandiva is already joint favourite for the 2014 1000 Guineas with Joyeuse but makes little appeal at this stage.

Maiden/Conds Review

With the 7f races just starting, the first race of the year in Britain was a seller at Yarmouth on 13th June won by One Penny Piece a newcomer from the Charlie McBride yard. The first 7f maiden was run at Haydock later that day and that went to Washaar, another winning newcomer from the Richard Hannon yard. He was too strong for the favourite Sir Jack Layden in the final furlong and a half. Over the next

few weeks there will be some really good maidens that will throw up plenty of winners. If the first couple of months are anything to go by, maidens that take place at Newbury and Newmarket are worth keeping a very close eye on. Newbury’s most recent maiden was run on 13th June over six and a half furlongs with Recanted providing Brian Meehan his fourth two year old winner of the year and a first from a newcomer. He travelled strongly through the race under Frankie Dettori and was always holding the runner up Pearl Spectre from the Andrew Balding yard. The well backed favourite, Showpiece for Richard Hannon ran a strange race, losing a close up position at halfway and getting shuffled back before running on inside the last furlong. Not too many Brian Meehan two year olds win at the first attempt, this was only the 13th from 327 runners since 2008 and this son of Empire Maker should be able to progress in better company, the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket was mentioned as a possible next run for Recanted. This race has produced a number of good winners in recent years, Sri Putra in 2008, Trade Storm in 2010 and Toronado in 2012; it will be interesting to see whether Recanted will enhance this good record of the race throwing up smart winners.

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FINDING WINNERS Racing has returned to Newmarket’s July course and they held a two day meeting on 7th and 8th June with two six furlong maidens taking place for two year olds. The fillies maiden run on the first day saw a Godolphin 1-2 with Wedding Ring beating well supported favourite Ithimal by a neck with newcomer Queen Catrine running on well to grab third. There were a couple of horses that took the eye in the paddock and look capable of better as they strengthen throughout the year, Lamar trained by James Tate has plenty of scope and is sure to appreciate a step up to 7f. The Tate two year olds have improved a lot for their first runs with three from seven winning second time out so far. Also to take the eye was Swiss Kiss trained by John Gosden. She was by the biggest filly in the paddock but raced keenly and faded out of contention a furlong and half out. Many of her relations are also big and this filly by Dansili looks sure to improve for this initial run. Jallota put his experience to good use to win the maiden on day two of the meeting on 8th June, winning at the third attempt. He had been a good third at York on 25th May behind Astaire, the only winning newcomer from the Kevin Ryan yard so far, and Kommander Kirkup trained by Michael Dods who has a place strike rate of 37% with his newcomers since 2008. Back in fourth in this York maiden was Munjally who was the subject of strong support before the Newmarket race, backed into 6/1 second favouritism. Jallota raced prominently throughout and was in front at halfway and kept on well beating Brown Sugar, a newcomer from the Richard Hannon yard with Munjally just getting run out of second close home. There were plenty of nice looking horses in the paddock and of those that shaped well in the race, L’Importante trained by Marco Botti, Speedfiend (very strong in the market in the morning of the race) trained by Noel Quinlan and Zarwaan trained by Ed Dunlop all showed enough to suggest they can improve and figure next time out. The favourite Gm Hopkins looked fitter than he had done at Newbury on his debut but ran poorly, he didn’t move that well and faded out of contention in the final furlong and a half. He showed at Newbury he has ability and is certainly worth another chance. Away from Newbury and Newmarket, Leicester staged a two day meeting on 27th and 28th May and the winners of the 50

Rizeena

three maidens run there all look to have promising futures. Coulsty recorded a very fast time in winning the 5f median auction maiden on 27th May, drawing clear of his rivals in impressive style for Richard Hannon and Ryan Moore winning by five lengths from Disko. There have been a couple beaten out of this race subsequently but the fourth Umneyati won a weak maiden at Lingfield on 11th June to give the form a bit of a boost. There is certainly better to come from Coulsty and he looks worth a place in Listed company at least. Kaiulani provided Mick Channon with his third debut winner of the year when she beat Excel’s Beauty comfortably over 5f on 28th May. She was always travelling nicely for Martin Harley and picked up well in the final furlong to win by two lengths. Excel’s Beauty made no mistake on her second start winning a 5f maiden at Nottingham on 9th June. It is likely Kaiulani will develop into one of the leading 6f fillies this year and she could easily be a contender for races like the Lowther and Cheveley Park Stakes later in the season. The 6f maiden that followed Kaiulani’s race saw Toormore and Ertijaal separated by only a neck and a gap of seven lengths to the third placed horse, Major Crispies, and both look to have very good futures. Richard Hannon saddled the winner Toormore,

a relatively cheap purchase by Arakan, a sire that has produced Group winners Dick Turpin and Trumpet Major for the yard. Ertijaal didn’t get the best of runs a furlong and half from the finish but kept on strongly inside the last furlong and he is sure to win races for William Haggas. Toormore is clearly held in high regard by the Hannon team, he holds an entry in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh in September and he looks certain to be competing in Group races over the coming months. David O’Meara has only been training since 2010 but is already making a big name for himself and looks well on the way to be one of the leading trainers in the North of England in the next couple of years. He hasn’t made too much impact training two year olds as yet, only a 9% strike rate but that looks sure to improve. He sent out only his second winning newcomer on 28th May when Sunny Harbor won easily at Redcar on 28th May beating Augusta Ada who had shown ability in her first two starts and Spiceupyourlife in third. There was promise in sixth from Nelson’s Pride a newcomer from the Kevin Ryan yard, she missed the break but was keeping on nicely being nearest at the finish. There was a lot of support for Wahaab to make a winning debut at Goodwood on 31st


TALKING TWO-YEAR-OLDS Riverboat Springs

May and the first foal of Group One winner Indian Ink didn’t let his supporters down with a comfortable win over twice raced Jazz in second and Downturn in third. Trained by Richard Hannon, this Hamdan Al Maktoum colt did hang to his right in the final furlong but that might have just been down to inexperience and there must be high hopes for this son of Tamayuz in the coming months. Downturn made all on his next start at Sandown over 7f on 14th June comfortably beating Diapenko a newcomer from the Brian Meehan yard. The 6f fillies maiden run at Doncaster on 1st June should throw up a few winners in the coming weeks. Rasheeda was well backed and made a winning debut for Marco Botti. Genuine Quality travelled strongly through the race and was touched off inside the last half furlong, Tinga was doing good late work in the final furlong to be nearest at the finish and Musicora also kept on well having missed the break. The first two year old to race by top class Sea The Stars appeared at Leicester on 3rd June, Juvenile Lead was the horse in question and was also the first two year of 2013 to run for Sir Michael Stoute. He shaped with some promise but could manage only sixth, he is sure to do better when stepping up in

trip. The race saw a first winner in Britain for Australian based James McDonald aboard Cable Bay trained by Charles Hills. He got up close home to deny Whaleweigh Station and Hatha Hoor who won easily on his next start at Bath on 7th June. Aidan O’Brien has a stable full of well bred horses and he sent out a full sister to Mars called Wonderfully to make a winning debut at Fairyhouse on 5th June. She got up right on the line having chased the pace and beat fast finisher Queen of Power and Colour Blue in a tight finish. Blurred Vision attracted support prior to his debut at Sandown on 6th June with Frankie Dettori in the saddle but a slow start meant he couldn’t get too involved in a race won by Honey Meadow who won for Robert Eddery. Blurred Vision has plenty of scope and looks capable of better, he also had a wide draw to contend with. Dane O’Neill seems to have slotted into the role of second jockey to Hamdan Al Maktoum very well and rode two winners for his retainer at Beverley on 8th June which included Anjaal for Richard Hannon in the first division of a modest median auction maiden. He also won for Hannon aboard Langavat who gained compensation in the conditions race having unseated Pat Dobbs at

Goodwood a fortnight earlier when looking likely to win. He was favoured by having the rail to run against and held on well from My Catch who shaped with a lot of promise on debut. The day got better for O’Neill as he landed a five-timer with two wins for Brian Ellison at the end of the card. There were plenty of negatives in the paddock about favourite Constantine prior to the 6f maiden at Windsor on 10th June. He was on his toes, noisy and colty and taken down to the start before his six rivals. He had every chance but was hampered by his stablemate Ice Slice which allowed Homestretch trained by Mick Channon to come from off the pace to win quite cosily in the end. David Evans went from 25th April to 11th June without sending out a two year old winner, Lone Warrior gave the yard their first success in division two of a 6f maiden auction at Salisbury, keeping on well inside the last furlong to beat Starlight Serenade who bucked on his way to the start and did well to figure so prominently. There was a lot of support for Baker Man a newcomer from Sylvester Kirk’s yard but having travelled well he could keep on only at the same pace. He is a strong looking son of first season stallion Dandy Man and should do better, however the Kirk yard has only a 6% strike rate second time out. Ed Walker has a couple of nice two year olds on his hands after Bushcraft made a promising debut to finish third behind Biography and Meeting Waters at Sandown on 14th June. A well-made colt by first season stallion Bushranger he moved well to the start under William Buick and kept on well in the race and was six lengths clear of the fourth placed horse. He should have trouble winning next time. Less than half an hour later, Reroute won for the Walker yard in impressive style at York and recorded a fast time in the process. She holds an entry in the Queen Mary and whilst that race may come too quick, she is certainly one to follow. Also on 14th June there was an impressive debut win Somewhat over 7f at Musselburgh. A well bred colt by Dynaformer, Somewhat made all under Joe Fanning and beat New Street easily by seven lengths and provided Mark Johnston with a 10th two year old winner of the year. He looks sure to make his mark in better company next time.

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YESTERDAY’S HEROES

Shergar, a true racing machine

Graham Buddry on a horse that everyone remembers for the wrong reasons

A

lthough it’s difficult for us to believe, some people have no interest in horseracing at all and would be totally flummoxed if asked about anything to do with our wonderful sport. These same people, if pressed hard, may plumb the depths of their dubious knowledge and come up with the belief that Red Rum won the Derby, Lester Piggott rode a Grand National winner and Frankel won the St Leger at Epsom. No matter how little they may know about racing, one thing is certain and that is if asked to name a famous racehorse the first name they would utter would be Shergar. There is no doubting that Shergar was exceptionally talented, something we will look at closer in this piece, but it was not his talent which will keep him forever in the public consciousness. Many are the tasteless jokes down the years which have revolved around the colt but the sad truth is that on the 8th February 1983 Shergar was kidnapped from the Aga Khan’s Ballymany stud in County Kildare by masked terrorists in a raid which immediately alienated them from the horse loving peoples of Ireland and England. Shergar’s owner, The Aga Khan, received an extortionate demand for ransom which had no chance of ever being met and despite desperate pleas for his safe return

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by leading Irish politicians and the racing fraternity, Shergar was undoubtedly just callously shot and buried when the terrorists did not get the money they craved and to this day his body has never been found. As a result of this desperately sad affair which still haunts horse lovers on both sides of the Irish Sea, the name of Shergar will be forever ingrained on even those who do not know one end of a horse from the other. In terms of breeding, today almost any horse of note can trace his ancestry back to Northern Dancer often by means of his son, Sadlers Wells and his son in turn, Gal-

ileo. It is a little known fact that two of the greatest races ever seen by two spectacular colts are linked through a different bloodline in their sire, Great Nephew. Shergar’s record breaking ten length success in the Derby still stands today as one of the most wonderful performances ever seen at Epsom while his half brother, Grundy, another Derby winner, will be forever lauded as the winner of the greatest flat race ever seen when he won his dual with Bustino in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. Foaled in 1978, the bay colt with the distinctive broad white blaze and white socks




SHERGAR

Winning the Derby without breaking sweat

was a decent two year old. Seeing a racecourse for the first time, Shergar was sent to Newbury and won the valuable Kris Plate in a course record time having virtually toyed with the opposition as he sauntered to the winning post. His only other race in his first year was in finishing a good second in the Futurity Stakes, what is now known as the Racing Post Trophy, after going best of all until close home until the superior speed of Beldale Flutter over the mile prevailed. Rated only joint thirty-first in the Free Handicap, Shergar was readily available at odds of 33/1 for the 1981 Derby but it was as a three-year-old the following season,

that Shergar would take the racing world by storm as he stepped up in distance. The Sandown Classic Trial over a mile and a quarter is generally a good marker for Derby aspirants and Shergar came to the fore as he slaughtered a classy field by ten lengths and more. On this occasion Kirtling finished a distant second before going to Chester and franking the form by landing the Dee Stakes by six lengths. Kirtling would later run away with the Gran Premio d’Italia, the Italian Derby, in Milan. Chester was also the scene of Shergar’s next race as he lined up in the Chester Vase. Having won his previous race by ten lengths, Shergar extended that to twelve lengths at Chester as a select but high class field was smashed into the ground with consummate ease. With form such as this he was readily installed as favourite for the Derby at Epsom, eventually starting a shade of odds on at 10/11. On the strength of the form he had shown so far, one racing journalist famously stated that nothing could beat him and implored his readers that now was the time to bet like men. Seventeen other runners took Shergar on that day with Shotgun, runner up in the Dante Stakes, next best in the betting and sporting the considerable assistance from the saddle of the legendary Epsom maestro, Lester Piggott. Glint of Gold, running in the famous Mill Reef colours of Paul Mellon, was already a course and distance winner while the French were ably represented by Andre Fabre’s Chantilly based unbeaten colt, Al Nasr. The Lingfield Derby Trial was another important test for the Epsom Classic and the first two home that day, Riberetto and Sheer Grit, both took their chances too, as did the high class Kalaglow, a future winner of Ascot‘s King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes. Back in 1981 Shergar’s trainer, Michael Stoute, was only ten years into his career as a trainer and his three previous Derby runners had all failed to trouble the judge while 19-year-old Walter Swinburn was having his first Derby ride. These were just a few of the reasons the bookmaking fraternity had hopes of an upset. It was already nine years since a favourite had won the race and thirteen

since the winner hailed from Newmarket. In a race with its normal share of bumping, Kalaglow was knocked sideways as the field raced down Tattenham hill and didn’t handle Tattenham corner at all, which finished any hope he had while Al Nasr was never in the race and trailed home well beaten. Racing near the front Shergar had a trouble free passage and was going so easily that Swinburn sent him on a full three furlongs out and the response had to be seen to be believed. Shooting clear Shergar quickly put a staggering distance between himself and the rest of the field and a furlong later the race was all but over. As they hit the final furlong Shergar was already being eased down, so far ahead was he while John Matthias galvanised Glint of Gold and truly thought he had won until he spied Shergar already pulling up on the horizon. A record margin of ten lengths was accredited to Shergar’s stunning performance, although this could easily have been far more if he hadn’t been eased down over a furlong out. Post race Swinburn stated it was akin to riding Pegasus as he flew clear but maintained down the years that he felt he was still only ambling along and could have gone far faster. The Irish Derby was next on the agenda where Piggott took the ride due to Swinburn being suspended. The field included Kirtling, fresh from his success in Italy and it was he who led the field as they approached the home straight with three furlongs left to run. At this point Piggott eased Shergar up on the outside of the field and hit the front as they levelled up for home. On the rails Kirtling was hard ridden and gave his all but Shergar was still only in a canter. Two out and the gap was growing with Piggott still to ask Shergar for any real effort. Inside the final furlong and Piggott had a lazy look over his shoulder at those toiling in his wake. Kirtling had given his all and faded close home while Shergar crossed the line four easy lengths clear in what looked little more than an exercise canter. All roads now led to Ascot and the ultimate clash of generations known as the King George. For the first time in the history of the

53


SHERGAR race there were no foreign runners, Shergar having already frightened them off, together with all the other three year old colts. Indeed the only other three year old to run was the sole filly, Madam Gay, who had taken second place in the Oaks before winning the French equivalent, the Prix de Diane. Brigadier Gerard’s best son, Light Cavalry, took the final classic of the previous season when scoring in the St Leger although his only victory in the current campaign had been the Princess of Wales Stakes, whereas Pelerin had triumphed in both the John Porter and the Hardwicke Stakes. Cracaval was the outsider with no recent form, yet only 10 months earlier he had beaten the brilliant Ile de Bourbon and was thus worthy of a place in the field. The final two runners had contrasting form. Fingal’s Cave took the Cumberland Lodge Stakes the previous season but a hock injury had kept him off the course until a modest fourth place in the Eclipse four weeks earlier. Master Willie had won both the Coronation Cup and Eclipse this season while a year earlier his form included runner up in The Derby, winning the Benson and Hedges at York (now known as the International) and then second place in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket. Although a lot of the runners to face Shergar at both Epsom and The Curragh may not have been of the highest quality, at Ascot there would be no hiding place if he were not up to the task. Needing ever yard of the distance, Light Cavalry jumped straight into the lead but set only a moderate pace and Shergar, wanting to go faster refused to settle and was fighting Swinburn for his head. After half a mile Light Cavalry increased the pace and was joined for the lead by Master Willie as Swinburn breathed a huge sigh of relief. Half a mile from home and Master Willie took the lead and suddenly Shergar found himself boxed in on the rails in fourth place as Madam Gay improved rapidly on the outside. For an instant the odds on favourite looked in serious trouble as the field swept round the turn into the home straight but then a gap opened up on the rails as Light Cavalry drifted to his left. It was enough. Swinburn asked his mount and Shergar bravely shot through the opening, sprinting through with no 54

hesitation to join battle with Master Willie and then settling the race as he powered away from his toiling rivals. With his tongue hanging out Shergar quickly put an emphatic four lengths between himself and the rest of the field. Madam Gay got up in the final strides to pip Fingal’s Cave for second place with Master Willie back in fourth. Some horses can take a lot of racing and others can’t and Shergar was clearly over the top for the season when he ran a lacklustre fourth place in the St Leger at Doncaster in what would prove to be his final race. Syndicated for £10 million he went to Ireland to take up his stud duties and we are left with the feeling of what might have been in the years he should have stood as a stallion with some of Europe’s best mares lined up for his services.

In the one year he stood, Shergar sired a crop of thirty six foals, of which Maysoon was placed in the 1986 running of both the One Thousand Guineas and The Oaks while Authaal won the Irish St Leger. Perhaps the most famous horse in the world, his name is forever linked with terrorism, kidnapping and a mystery about his ultimate fate that still persists today, but this can never do justice to what was a true champion of the turf. Rather than remembering him for the dark side, glory in his superb performances at Sandown, Chester and The Curragh, revel of his record breaking demolition of his Derby opponents and finally enjoy his supreme exploits at Ascot where the best of the generations were brushed aside by the incredible racing machine known as Shergar.


GOLDCREST RACING

Be a pro about your betting

a small profit he would obviously turn it down as a poor deal. The investment banks are in the he first rule of betting, if you are to be same position. Why should they make longprofessional about it, is that you must term loans to small businesses when they can set up a bank to bet from that is com- shuffle that same money around every day and pletely separate from your daily affairs. make millions? If you don’t do that and keep careful records you It’s fairly obvious that the investment side will never know whether you are in profit or not. should be completely separate from the cusMost casual punters could tell you their last win- tomer side but, horror of horrors, that would ner but not the losers. They don’t know whether mean they would be denied access to your monthey are ahead or not. ey. The government won’t change anything The British banks also maintain betting banks because the City provides 14% of the GDP. So known as the investment sector. They gamble on all the waffle you read about changes to the things like sub prime mortgages that can never banking system are just not possible. Sadly all be repaid and they shuffle bits of paper about we can do is sit back and wait for the next crash making millions of pounds daily. The huge dif- when the government will again step in and ference between an investment bankSt. and Leonards the hand the banks 15 Roosevelt Court, on our Sea, money.TN38 9DJ ordinary punter the fact that moneyE-mail; being This must be every punter’s dream scenario. Tel;is07596 358the 404 goldcrest85@live.co.uk invested by the banks belongs to the customers Gamble with other people’s money and keep and when these bets lose the poor customer in the profits and if you lose someone else picks the form of the taxpayer has to bail these fanatup theOF tab. RACING QuantitativeAHEAD. easing means devaluADVERT FOR THE JULY EDITION ics out. ation. Fact. If you ask a professional gambler to lend his That’s what they do in Zimbabwe and you betting bank to a business that will only return wondered why everything is costing so much

T

THE

BY IAN HARRISON

GOLDCREST

SYNDICATE

GOLDCREST (EST 1985)

The Goldcrest Syndicate has been providing regular profits for twenty eight years. Selections are found by using recent form and statistics. Send for our FREE e-book which has lots of useful advice. (The booklet ‘Advice for Backers’ is £5 by post. Cheques to Ian Harrison.)

Results; April, May and part of JUNE PRO BETS;

26 BETS, 16 WON, 62%, 15.2 Points, 58% Profit on Turnover. Just £75 a month and you soon get it back. (£2.40 a day)

**Last year we made £15,658 from a bank of £1000.** **Details of how we did this are in the free e book.**

Our new Stable Contact has been Proofing to us since the 2nd May. 7 Weeks and that is long enough for anybody.

20 Bets, 9 Won, 23.5 points, 117% Profit on Turnover. Terms; Odds to £15, losers deductible. Text your name, address and mobile number for the Odds To bets.

Web Page;

more. Lies, damn lies and government statements. Fifty eight betting offices in one London borough. And alongside these betting offices you will find the payday lenders so the poor mugs can go straight from the roulette machine to the loan shark next door. The going rate for one of these sharks is 4000%. (‘And the best plan is, as it always was, to profit by the folly of others.’ Pliny the Elder ad 23-79.). Nothing changes. I have a system that will make money at roulette but it is so boring you would be better off crop picking in Lincolnshire. If you want it here it is. Back evens shots with a stake sequence, 1, 3, 7. You have to wait till there have been four consecutive reds or blacks and then jump in on the opposite with the sequence. Most of the time you will win one point for each spin of the wheel. If the sixth spin comes up with a win you have won two points etc. Start with £11 in stake money. When you have made £11 profit walk away. Simple…but what do you do while you are waiting for the run of four reds? On the racecourse you can have a drink between races. In a casino you are sworn at for talking. They are all so busy counting numbers. I once took a reverend to a casino because he wanted a new electronic organ for his church. It was a very progressive church. He got the organ but en route he had £500 on the roulette table at one point which was the house limit but somebody up there was watching over him. That was achieved by using the 137 method. You can’t wait for four reds/blacks in a betting office but you can online. I am just about to post this article to Racing Ahead and my day has been made, June 14th with Grandorio winning at 5/1 at York by 8 lengths. We got 10/1 in the morning. Given out as a win bet but not a Pro Bet. It was one of our Naps. On the racing front May and June have been a revelation to me. Running the Goldcrest Syndicate I have been approached by hundreds of so called ‘stable contacts’ and each one has been more useless than the last. But in mid May I met a contact who wanted to proof his advices and he has put up a stunning performance. (See Advert). He wants to put them out at odds to £15 from July 1st and that is a bargain. This contact is the first genuine contact in 28 years of tipping. Condolences to the family and friends of Sir Henry Cecil. One of nature’s gentlemen. He will be missed. Ian Harrison has successfully run the Goldcrest Syndicate for twenty eight years. Tel; 07596 358 404. www.samphire.it or ian@samphire.it

www.samphire.it

Ian Harrison, 15 Roosevelt Court, St. Leonards on Sea, TN38 9DJ Tel or text; 07596 358 404. E-Mail; goldcrest85@live.co.uk

55




56


YOU CAN’T EAT VALUE By Mick Livesey In this new book, Greyhound Express editor Mick Livesey reveals how he picks winners. It’s packed with pricless info gained from his lifetime in greyhound racing as a punter and leading trainer. ALL FOR THE AMAZING PRICE OF £10!

TO ORDER VISIT WWW.RACINGAHEAD.NET AND CLICK ON THE LINK TO MICK’S NEW BOOK


land)

All his ar ticles in one great book . . . WORDS FROM THE WISE is the collected works of Fenman as featured in the pages of Racing Ahead

Words from the wise . . .

This beautiful perfect-bound 172-page book is full of Fenman’s methods and the wisdom gained from a lifetime in racing

The collected works of Fenman from Racing Ahead magazine FINAL FURLONG

A word from the As well as the articles, it features wise . . .  an index of all the methods used F I U  N P S G  E S P by Fenman — brought together "X for the very first time XJTF I C

betdaq_IB

13/8/03

3:59 pm

Page 1

G

FINAL FURLON

Fenman, of the Boston Target series, shares more of his experiences of his 60 years-plus following racing

only invoke upon my memories this month hoping to prove that however inconsequential we may feel in the passage of life, something we may have experienced may be of comfort and help to others. In life, situations can occur that result in bringing people together, people too of very dierent occupations . . . strange bedfellows. Such a thing happened to me. I was only 33 years of age when, due to frustration and overwork, I had a nervous and mental breakdown. Very much a self-employed person and married with a young family my business came to a complete halt. Expenses did not unfortunately and before I fully recovered, ďŹ nances had almost reverted to the early days of marriage. In a jocular mood for a moment, it was over six months before we could  aord a honeymoon! However, with the love and unstinting OFST 0X care EPXTCFGPSF TIB  of those closest to me, and the kindness shown by those who IFJS A portrait of our esteem IPX BTUU FPG in business TIBWFD ed writer taken in the late I had only regarded as friendly acquaintances, I made a BMMXFMMBXBS TBSF 6563&FWFOU OUFS BMMZ seventies MQV FRV VDDFTTGV STFBQQMZ complete recovery. USBJOFSTBOET FXPSETŃŽ  FZEPPGDPV FPGVTIBE betting. I decided upon that way rather than print them on a weekly UIPT It was not until some 43 years later that my experience of that JGPOMZTPN USVUIGVMBSF BOE VT  PVS MMPG BQT basis through my column. In that case there would of necessity be WFTPGB XT QFSI time enabled me to help another who, although we live 100 or so XFMMUPUIFMJ UIPTFTIBEP JOUP repetition on a frequent basis and of course the less methodical FQFS FEF miles apart, we have through correspondence and two meetings F MPPLFEBMJUUM NZFOUS ZCZ extremely good friends. Through my writings as Fenman, inclined would try an idea for a time, become impatient with any JÄ’FSFOUDPVST UPMEEFMBZFE NFbecome BWFUBLFOBE   BOE*BN MJWFTXPVMEI losers and move back to their own haphazard way and berating the TUTP aPGJU as a boyI wish had been my hobby I said in my ‘his ďŹ rst two’ contribution F"QSJMPG PGNZMJGF KV n doing  which Fenma XJTI BST *XBTCPSOJOUIPUUPIBWFCFFOBGPPMBMM IPX* author! QSF main ce from a gentleman ofTDIPPMZF MZ*OFWFSTBX SPVH BTO IU occupation, a letter arrived at the oďŹƒ DI*OUIPTF NBU VOGPSUVOBUF NF UISFFEBZTTP IPC My wife is not interested in racing but when she has nothing better SUP BUUJ XIP STX NPV HSF UIFS mySown age. He too had TFO undergone time. He had OUB TFPGIVa very unsettling EASVOOF MHSBOEGB MFHT CVUTQF JUIB PTF BMX NBLFS)FIB OOJOHTGP .ZNBUFSOB  to do she will watch with me. The other day at the Cambridgeshire QUI PPL BOJN ZXJ UPN BZV UBO FFUC CPU come to Skegness with his wife and had bought a copy of BSUX TUS EPV SFBDIQ ZT on holiday JUFIBJSBUUIF DIMBVHImeeting UFS GXI VMEPOMZ *IBE XBTBOPÄ’ JTGSPOUSPPNBOEXIPQBJ MMFHBMJOUIPTFEB such and occasion arose. I did not have a selection in one TTP *DP NB the Target. Browsing through he came across my column. He told me NV UIBU JOH UPI MMRVJUFJ T  BEBOEBNJE DBSUGPS race but chose Jewel In The Sand (male intuition living JTIF IJOHBOEDPN VTUPNFS CFUUJOHTMJQT ZQVOUFST" BXB particular FSI XBT IJTD PES MVDL FMPX FPG later that he immediately felt an aďŹƒ nity with the writer, enough to BEU JPVT MEI TPN WBS IFbeach) she chose the 40-1 winner Magic Romance. On MUIPVHIIFI POUIFJS TVSFthe ZBUJNFXPV VOEFSTUBOE SFUVSOUPUIF near UIBUFO WFSIFFMT"with which was ofFIF course our joint interest. BEPconnected BMA#JMMXFSF* OFÄ’PSUUPLFFQ write the letter,.BO FN BOE she said: “Well it’s not all been magic but after 55 years IBUBJSBCPVUIJNOHAUSPUU FST BEU BMUIPVHIUIFMPD UIFNĂŞSTUQBTUIFQPTUJOB my enquiry XPVMEOV[[M TLT IFI ZPV My reply answered his query and I must have mentioned that I too FSUB UIF BJE PUI JOHBOE MVODMF  IFQSPCBCMZQ JOUIFFZFTPG IBZNBL wedâ€?, (female intuition, there’s no answer is there?) All this brings FT NZQBUFSOBhad passed through the time he IFT wasUBCM now experiencing and had in  FPUIFSXBT TUFSPGU TŃŽ  GBUIFS UIFNB SJHIUTJEF PNto XBThim me to describing and hoping to whet your appetite for my Proven EIJTHSP way given a degree of comfort. I was learn after more IFXPVMECF FPGNZATIBEPX OJOHUSPUUJOHTUBCMFT.Z some BHBJOTU NZVODMFBO TJOIJTAĂŞFME XFSF method which in one selection gave the winner of the )FXBTKVTUPO VSTFwhich ZPX BTEFBE PGDPand QFSIBQ Apprentices correspondence, has OFTT nowBOE become a weekly ow backFAZP andVOHTUFST EJOIJTIPCCZC SVODMFBOEPGDPVSTFX SFTUJO DBTJPOTXIFOUI IPTFCJH FOOPUJOIBS IPPWFT XIPJOEVMHF 8I Cambridgeshire, Spanish Don at 100-1. UIBUNZJOUFforth, that he was MFTPOUI a retiredUIF bookmaker! It isFPD now just over two years PGU CUTPGBOPUIF FBOU FEF DMPQ TUBC JDIN DMJQ BZUI  UIF JOUP XI FBS HIU IBEUPQ UPI CSPV IBE IFFOEPGUIF FQFSATIBEPX SBQT since that ďŹ rst letter and not only have I had my own thoughts of OMZ MBUU OEF FZP FSX  TUBM FWF ŃŽ PTF VOE "O PXO JOH JOH FIJT FIBW VSJOHUI CFUUJOH NJTC UWFS ZNVDI PGDPVST FMFN racing scene conďŹ rmed, dare I say the “horse’s mouthâ€? with FOUTEVS IBEfrom UIF )F HFEDIJMEIPPEE the BEUPCFLFQ OE UJO PXO STI JWJMF FSB PV ŃŤ ZFB FOE EQS GBUI It isFa well known fact that certain trainers will sometimes use 3lb MBUFS OFWFSMF but he too UPRVJFUa little proďŹ to extracting t from his profession, has MEUIBUI SIFXBT VMETBZUIBU*IB FTBOEFBSMZUIJSUJFTBTNZregards *XBTUP HGP IFO *DP MEJO OX TFT QPTF TFE CVJ MFWF IPS *TVQ FOUJ IFV and 5lb apprentices when they mean business. Two very reasonable PSF to enjoy the view TUJO FODMPTFE from seeing FTXIFSF CFFO much satisfaction andUFO helping PGUIFMBUFUX O.ZJOUFSF derived U*NVTUIBWF EJOIJTAĂŞFMEVOEFSUIFUSF BOEIFX VTFEUP waysBTO of PU using these riders are (a) note the ďŹ rst horse reading down EFQSFTTFEZFBST MMTVDDFTTGVMCVTJOFTTNF SUJDVMBSVODMFform VSJF the IJT other UIF sideOJHI of the fence! FSFB UQB UPPIPU TBU EBOECFFOC TIBWFCFFO IJTCSPUIFSTX FNZTDIPPMEBZT GPSUIB the handicap that has won one of its last three races and is ridden EBZ ZIBQQZEBZ NFS Bookmaking IBE has EJF come a long wayTVN from the days when he ďŹ rst FGPS *TQFOUNBO BOETIPVMEUIF CFHBOMPOHC by aTBO 3lbEclaimer and (b) to note the most recent outing of runners NPOUITBOE PSTF started,Mwhen heUPTU ran his own business. In those days theNZ proprietor UIFTVNNFS JOUFSFTUJOI by 3lb and 5lb claimers. In some races two may have the same SFGV EMFE BTB FDB LJOH LJO DPMMFDUNFJO ridden OUJM XPS UIBU degree were hisFZFBSTV VUJOUPUI was very much on view and to aXT certain F FUIFATIBEP F prefer the ďŹ rst named of these. If they both carry MZPWFSUI XFSpunters FSXPSL *XBTQ ZF*AEJENZUXPŃŽ FDPN TMPX PTF TUBCMFT  QBQ weight, always ŃŽ BEC QFE EJO WFMP UEFby friends. Nowadays the bigMZSB ďŹ rms are run accountants with the U*XJTII TFOHBHF UIB BUDIGVMF DJOH JOHXPSL 8IFOIFXB SUPGNZMJGFUIB UVBM the minimum weight again prefer the ďŹ rst named as in the ‘long’ 6OEFSIJTX BQBpaperwork. FWFO FSTUBOE VDIwith ZNare managers seen, engaged they IFBEHSPPN U OUMFBOEVOE JĂŞDFOseldom CFDBNFasWFS IBOETPGIJT GUIFNPTUHF the ďŹ rst of these will have been allotted a higher weight in EBTCFJOH UBNBHO IPCCZJU  not always closed. Winning accounts in those daysUJPO were The TSFKFDUFhandicap FGSPOUMFHTP IVHFTJSF CV  CVUXB TPJU TNZPDDVQB AUXPXFSFUI BSMZ BOE CFFO/PUB that assessment. Bets can further be restricted by only considering TPB JOF ZFBS IBWF IBU WFS DSFX proprietor would notice hisFFSF winning clients, carefully note VTUF EGPSBJS PPTZJOU HDItheir MVOU IPSTFUIFSFN QSPWFEworth at least ÂŁ15,000 to the winner. Use the trainer’s *WPcases handicaps FSFHFUUJO  FZX selections and in some discover their modus operandi! He MMFS)BWJOH EŃŽ U in his apprentice against the top jockeys, for entry fees UMZDPMPVSCMJO JOJOHBTBOJOGBOUSZTJHOB 24PVUI &BT TMJHIselections conďŹ dence could then back such himself theFSSF eort () EUSB and withoutBOTG EUPof FTQFOU UIFBSNZBO BTUS XFS will have cost him more! There will be losing runs and it is only a *X PVST PSET UZI working them out.XBT In the case of our association the bookmaker UMZBEFQUXJUIX IBEBAHPPEXBS0Ä’EV MFTT‘fun’ WJWJBM TMJHI DPObet really . . . but the prices! Although my suggestion to use Tote ETP conďŹ rmed, as I have been pretty certain all along, that I have TUFBEPG TTJObeen $PNNBOEBO MZ&YQSF odds for these bets came unstuck this time — only 75-1 against 100-1 UIF%BJ on the correct lines"TJB and overTZTU theFNT past 37 years through my column GSPN TFE over 10-1 will more often than not show a better return. FTT EFWJTJOH HF V — anything T. PGB FBOU FBST perhaps enabled others to enjoy their sport a little more proďŹ tably. 4FSH Z FUBU TJOUIF F QBTUJNFthat GFOPX XFN â– INF8 NEXT MONTH’S RACING AHEAD, WE PRINT FENMAN’S I mentioned last month I produce a factsheet for those ofPSUU my PPLQMBD FO NZXJ FOFWFSUIFTQ .ZĂŞBODFUI XBTNPTU — THEY MAKE VERY INTERESTING READING FXI readers who were methodically minded inQBH their approach to their FACTSHEETS F NBSSJBHF FSBDJOH UVSOJOHIPN HFUIFS UPTFOENFUI MFUUFST3F NFNPOFZUP 82 RACING AHEAD BOHFEPWFS2004 BOZPMEKPCUPHFUTP UFSFTU* FYDINovember PPL OBCJEJOHJO P*U OHB OET PMEJ OUB EBSBDJOH JNQPSUB IPCCZTUJMMI FSBOETVHHFTUF TPOBOEUIF OUZOFXTQBQ 5XFOUZZFBS 0764BU EJUPSPGUIFDPV JOOFS#&// UJNFTJO XSPUFNZMPDBMF FHBOXJUIUIF-JODPMOX EĂŞOJTIJOHGPVS OETUJMM TPC UTBO BOE OUBD NO CMFB DPMV UBCMFDP DMFT/BQT5B )BWJOHOPT SUJOH$ISPOJ JO ZPGUIFPME4QP PSNF UIFQSJ[FNPOF TPNFTPSUPGBSFDPSE PXTCFGPSFG S UCF TUUIFJSTIBE XSJUJOHNVT HIUFOVQZPV UBJOMZEJEDB   SFFWFOUTDFS ATIBEPXTXJMMMJ OEJOHXJOOFST 'VUV PTF g  F UI cin XJT Ra  EJOHUBTLPGĂŞ PSEGSPNUIF  n in the BX FSFO pio OFW "OE  am se UIF  d demi OBQQMJFEUP erall ch  QSFTFOUXIF per’s sa  clared ov

s,

Target serie the Boston tipping Fenman, of d tching - an has been wa re than 60 years mo winners for

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ON THE EXCHANGES 

Serving up profit at the All England

Peter Webb dusts off his whites to get ready for the action at Wimbledon

I

t’s that time of year for strawberries and cream, champagne and a round of polite applause. Meanwhile, those not in corporate hospitality can queue for hours in the rain for the random chance of seeing some quality Tennis. Yes it’s Wimbledon. The vast majority of trading takes in-play on Tennis matches so with that in mind, what clues do we have about Wimbledon and how should that influence your activity? “Grass is for the cows” said Ivan Lendl in 1982, when he decided to skip Wimbledon and go on holiday instead. Despite several strong campaigns, Lendl never managed to win at Wimbledon. This phrase is often repeated now by players who fail to adjust from playing on other surfaces to favour grass for just this one tournament. Very few players would not admit that a win at Wimbledon would be a career defining moment. But it’s not through trying that players fail; it’s generally down to how the Grass surface plays.

Men’s vs. Women’s Tennis

First it makes sense to delineate things at the top level. You obviously have this situation where the men play the best of five set and the women play the best of three, despite prize money being the same of course! On average the number of sets in the men’s matches is 3.68 versus 2.26 for the women’s. From that we start to see some dif-

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Ivan Lendl is not a lover of SW19

ferences between genders. The men average 9.86 games per set versus 8.92 for the women and if you dig even deeper then it translates to an average of 6.35 points per game and 6 56 for the women. What exactly does this mean? Research by the ATP in 1992 showed that the average length of a point on grass was just 2.7 seconds versus 8.2 seconds on Clay. To understand why, you look at the return of serve. In the Men’s game, points won on return reach around 40% on a clay surface, but only 34.7% on grass. Basically, it’s harder to return a serve on grass. For the women’s game things are less obvious, clay sees a 46.4% return of server, versus 42% on grass. So there is still a bias, but not so much. In summary, artificial courts tend to produce slower play and higher bounce, but grass produces speed and low bounce. Overall the men play fewer points per game than the women; this is a direct result of the dominance of their service. This makes the men’s game very different from the women’s game. The women tend to play fewer games per set on average because one sided scores are more common in the ladies’ singles. When you examine

why, you see a pattern that indicates that the gap between the top and lower seeds is more significant in women’s tennis. This also leads to fewer tiebreaks in all but the final sets. It’s also interesting to note that Men serve almost three times as many aces as the ladies, but serve about the same number of double faults: 5.5% in the men’s singles, 5.0% in the ladies’ singles.

Is serving first an advantage?

Looking at the statistics, fewer sets in the men’s singles are won by the player who begins to serve in the set. In the ladies’ singles the percentage is even lower. So at the top level starting to serve would appear to be a disadvantage rather than an advantage. However, when you look a little deeper you quickly see that this finding appears to be true in every set, except the first. For an explanation of this you begin to realise that the player who starts to serve in a set, if it is not the first set, is usually the weaker player. This can be attributed to the fact that it is likely that the stronger of the two players won the previous set. Also it is more likely that the last game of the prior set was won by the server than the receiver. In either case the loser of the set begins to




WITH BETANGEL.CO.UK serve in the next set. This is why the characteristic of first server losing the set more on average is predominant. The first server in all but the first set tends to be the weaker player. But why should the first set be different from the other sets?

Breaks of serve during the first few games in a match

At the start of a match a player’s key aim is not to make any mistakes. It makes more sense to hold serve than go for a crazy shot that gets you a break up in immediately. It’s better to play safe, settle into the game and look to find a way through your opponent. Well that’s what you would think. Examining the data it transpires that winning a service game in the first set was actually higher than in other sets. Detailed examination showed that the reason why was entirely due to the effect of the first game in the match. This “first game effect” exists only in the very first game of the match. By the second game, it has already disappeared. Therefore there does appear to be an advantage in serving first, but that effect only really takes place in the first game of the match.

Break points

So, you work hard for a break but fail to close out the game, at which point you have to serve yourself. Does this process of almost, but not quite breaking your opponent, have an effect on your own service game? When you look at the stats, the probability of a break is higher than usual, but not significantly so. But if you dig deeper you will notice that in less competitive matches it becomes much stronger. There the probability of losing a service game, after missed break points in the previous game, almost doubles in the men’s and trebles in ladies’ singles. You should also note that women are three times as likely to suffer a break on their own server after failing to break an opponent..

Ace worth more than one point

One way to win a game easily on grass is to serve an Ace. Serving an ace earns you one point. But if you look at the data you also notice a trend develops. That is, that after an ace, there are more points won than on a ‘normal’ point. It appears that on serving an ace a player will take more risk on the next server and achieve more Breaks of serve success. You can actually put a number A server is expected to win their service of it. In the men’s singles an ace is worth game. It’s quite complicated to explain ex- 1.04 points and in the ladies’ singles 1.01 actly why, but we have covered this in previ- points. A small, but important, increase. ous articles. Basically the chance of winning a point on serve varies but can be in the high 70’s in percentage terms and that translates into an even higher chance in terms of winning the game. If you have Bet Angel, fire up Tennis trader to see the exact numbers. The better the players, the more serious it is to be broken and when two seeds play each other, breaks occur in 13.9% of the games in the men’s singles, 33.4% in the ladies’ singles. When two non-seeds play against each other, breaks occur more often, 19.6% in the men’s singles and 35.7% in the ladies’ singles. If you are broken you want to break back as quickly as possible. This is where things start to get interesting, because overall the probability of winning a service game increases rather than decreases after a break. After a break, the players are more, rather than less, likely to win their service game. You would think that after a break, the winner takes it a bit easier and the loser tries a bit harder. But what actually happens appears to be the complete opposite. The winner gains in confidence and the looser gets slightly discouraged.

Seeded vs. non-seeded players

One thing that is very predominant when you are analysing Tennis in this much depth is that there is a key difference between how matches play out between seeded and non-seeded players. Players of experience tend to make fewer mistakes, capitalise on chances better and are more able to apply pressure to an opponent. There are some physical aspects to this, but a there is also a lot of influence in the psychological side of things as well. So while it is obvious that seeded players must be better, the strength in their seeding often runs much deeper than you would think. Therefore it’s always worth giving an experienced seeded player the benefit of the doubt and worth backing them when so far, things haven’t quite gone to plan. I hope that’s give you a few hints for Wimbledon. To take full advantage of the opportunities at Wimbledon, download a free trial of Bet Angel at www.betangel.com. As well as a the most comprehensive software available, you also get a free specialist Tennis Tool included. Tennis trader allows you to see where the odds are likely to be in a Tennis game given certain scores. This is unique to Bet Angel. Can Andy Murray win the big one?

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