SEPTEMBER 2022 MARKET COMMENT TOP PROPERTY PICKS LIVE BETTER
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One of the main factors of this rise in interest rates and gloomy outlook is the ongoing energy crisis, brought about in large parts by the war in Ukraine, with Russia choking Europe’s supply of energy.
Increasing interest rates, inflation and prices, plus a new PM, what does it all mean for the property market this autumn?
We have to caveat this article with a fact you’re probably already aware of - things in the property market are changing fast. Factors from all corners are putting pressure on leading to a lot of shouty headlines, some scary looking numbers and a lot of conflicting opinions. We’d love to be able to lay out a 3, 6 and 12 monthly roadmap of all the events that are going to happen and the changes in prices they might cause, but unfortunately we can’t. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen this winter, or beyond is lying. Instead, we’ll try to equip you with some facts and grounded opinions based on insight that will help you better understand what’s happening and potentially where it might lead the property market. But one thing we do know is whether you’re a buyer or a seller, it’s going to be interesting. In June, the Office for National Statistics revealed UK inflation rose again to the highest rate in 40 years. ONS statisticians reported that inflation rose from 9% in April to 9.1% in May. How does this affect the housing market? Simply put, if the price of goods and services rise, inflation can drive house prices up. If people are spending more on living, they have less to spend on a potential new home, so potential buyers, especially first-timers, can be priced out of the market. Some economists have suggested that inflation could rise over 13%. On top of that, in August the Bank of England said the UK was on the brink of a recession after hiking interest rates to 1.75% (at the time of writing). This means people on tracker and variable mortgages could end up paying hundreds more. The lion’s share of homes in the UK are on fixed rate mortgages, so are insulated from the interest rate rises, for the time being. But 40% of those are set to expire this year or next, which will leave millions in danger of high interest rates on new mortgages.
03 Mixed Messages
JOSH WOODFIN, MOVELI MARKET COMMENT
“The people who are going to feel this immediately are on the variable deals — particularly those on standard variable rates,” said David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, speaking to the Financial Times in August. “But there’s not too much room for complacency for those who are on fixed rates, which have been moving astonishingly quickly since the end of last year.”
Consumer champion, Martin Lewis has been vocal about the coming winter and rising energy costs, describing them as “a national crisis.” Ofgem announced in August that it would be changing the way it calculates the energy price cap, saying it will now be updated quarterly rather than every six months to provide stability to the energy market and to avoid smaller suppliers going bust by allowing them to charge customers higher prices more quickly as the cost of gas increases. This in part, led consultancy Cornwall Insight to warn that energy bills for a typical household could hit £4,266 next year in
ThisJanuary.would mean the average household would be paying about £355 a month, instead of £164 a month currently. The latest price cap is due to be announced at the end of August. Cornwall expects a rise to £3,582 a year, compared to the regulator’s prediction of £2,800 a year. Then there’s the UK’s new Prime Minister.
By the time you read this, either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss will be in Number 10.
40%
JULY avg price of property coming to market saw a sixth consecutive monthly record £1,354%0.4+
During their campaigns, neither candidate tabled a solution to the energy crisis, but one thing’s for sure, it will be high on the to do list of whoever wins the vote, whether they like it or not. So yes, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty in the UK at the moment, but what does it mean for the UK property market?
“The people who are going to feel this immediately are on the variable deals.”
The average price of property coming to market saw a sixth consecutive record in July, rising by 0.4%, or £1,354, according to property site Rightmove. In London, Camden saw the biggest monthly increase across all of the capital, with properties coming to market with a £1,031,999 average price tag, a 3.3% increase from of fixed rate mortgages are set to expire this year forcing people on to higher rates...
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“Buyer interest is expected to slow over the coming months as people tighten their belts and spend with more caution which will see price growth weaken further.”
05 June prices. Buyer demand was 26% higher than in 2019 as a desire to move and low numbers of homes for sale drove prices up. This is the longtail of the pandemic still working on the market. The race for space is still very real, with pent up savings from Covid lockdowns still fizzing in many buyers accounts. There was a small uptick of sellers in July, but available stock is still 40% down on where it was in 2019. Will this change again in the traditionally busy Autumn market? As summer fades and thoughts turn to a big move in time for Christmas, activity usually increases. The ongoing impact of the pandemic continues to support a desire to move. This is a big reason why the market is not slowing as fast as some might expect and demand remains for sensibly-priced homes, especially in more affordable areas. And with inflation set to hit double digits by the end of the year, priorities will shift as people scrutinise their budgets. “The housing market is not immune from higher mortgage rates which we are starting to see increase quickly,” said Richard Donnell, Executive Director of Research at Zoopla. “Buyer interest is expected to slow over the coming months as people tighten their belts and spend with more caution which will see price growth weaken further.”
Compare that with recent reports about prime central London’s super-rich renters returning to the capital leading to a 13.5% increase and you have an idea of how unpredictable the market is at the moment. Or how about the billion pound construction firm, Bellway, reporting a 13% increase in revenues to a record £3.5bn and 10.5% growth in completions to a record 11,198 in the financial year to the end of July. The company saw a higher than expected rise in the average selling price, which rose 2.6% to £314,000. “Bellway has delivered another strong performance, with volume output and housing revenue reaching record levels against the backdrop of a challenging operating environment and macroeconomic uncertainty,” the chief executive, Jason Honeyman, said. So if we have advice for you as a buyer or a seller, it’s to keep your own counsel, or that of a trusted agent. Don’t be swayed by headlines, or make any rash decisions. There are no easy answers, but understanding what you want, where you want it, and how much you’re willing to pay or sell for is key. Speak to local experts, keep up to date with the bigger picture, make sensible changes and compromises where appropriate, and we’ll see you on the other side.
However, the quality and location of properties are likely to play a part in how fast growth slows in the property market. Some properties will come to market at high valuations in the Autumn – as seller’s look to offload before the market changes again or costs start to bite –before being reduced. Prime locations like leafy commuter towns around London are likely to remain high, but prices will increase at a slower, more reasonable rate.
Average Asking Price Trend £369,968
£380k£370k£360k£350k£340k£330k£320k£310k
This chart shows the average asking price trend for property coming to the market in the last 12 months. The average price dropped in August, down 1.3% in the month to £365,173 (-£4,795). Though this is to be expected. Asking prices always drop in August and this is on a par with the average August drop over the past ten years. Rightmove.co.ukSource:
Aug Sep 2021 2022 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
06 Fulham £994£939 LISTSOLD £1,460,763 £3,043,000£1,891,526£722,132+ 16% AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £1m£3m£0 £507k £759k £1.11m £1.62m £2.45m £2m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 1 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +23% +14 +% 16% Chelsea £1,531£1,544 LISTSOLD £2,737,137 £3,994,000£4,928,790£1,327,010 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £768k £1.35m £2.46m £3.5m£7m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 21 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR + 12% +10% + 17.0% £4.11m £5.98m 1 YEAR +17% Kensington £1,426£1,438 LISTSOLD £2,421,585 £7,395,455£3,623,771£1,577,285 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £778k £1.27m £2.63m £3.5m£7m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +2% + 6.0% £4.52m £5.89m 1 YEAR +6% +8% Notting Hill & Holland Park £1,259£1,358 LISTSOLD £2,227,090 £6,755,555£4,090,069£1,265,501 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £659k £1.03m £2.30m £6m£3m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +11% + 9.0% £3.28m £5.38m 1 YEAR +9% +3% Up, down or sideways? Feast your eyes on this data from the property market for your local area. Data is compiled from a variety of sources including Rightmove.co.uk and PropertyData.co.uk. Sold price data refers to sold in the last year (unless otherwise stated). Listing data refers to current listings across the top three property portals, Rightmove, Zoopla and On the Market (Sept 2022). MARKET DATA (CONTINUED ON PAGE 18)
07 Featured agents in this issue For expert advice on your sale or let contact us todayDavidMcGuinness Balham 07926 940 502 Robert Coules Oxford & Surrounds 07538 183 155 James Giblin Fulham & Parsons Green 07592 503 440 Aaron Powdrill North Kensington & Kensal Rise 07481 899 164 Reuben Van Zummeren Putney 07741 275 667 Mike Wallis Cobham & Oxshott 07971 082 225 Jeremy Creasor Kensington & Chelsea 07704 500 069 Natalie Malka Hampstead 07971 117 024 Chris Shaw Notting Hill & Holland Park 07833 996 859 Paul Clappison Battersea & Clapham 07719 325 417 Robert Oatley Kingston & Surbiton 07880 551 977 James Weston Earlsfield & Southfields 07525 008 650 Simon Armitage Tooting 07970 693 734 Charlie Crane Fulham & Parsons Green 07909 525 904 Melanie Attwater Caterham & Surrounds 07852 940 409 Samantha Allen Head of Lettings 07821 635 090 Roberto Ghirardani Weybridge & Walton-On-Thames 07803 727 277 (230)4.9 020 3150 hello@moveli.co.uk0733
08 Ifield Road, SW10 £1,350,000 FOR SALE // JEREMY CREASOR Coleherne Mansions, SW5 £1,750,000 FOR SALE // JEREMY CREASOR Allen Street, W8 £4,450,000 FOR SALE // JEREMY CREASOR Cleveland Square, W2 £3,250,000 FOR SALE // CHRIS SHAW Lexham Gardens, W8 £1,850,000 SOLD // JEREMYPRIMECREASORCENTRAL “Incredibly supportive and responsive throughout and even helped advise us on our onward purchase. Highly recommend!” Matt D
09 Located on gated cobbled mews and set back from the “Notting Hill buzz”, this property has been designed and refurbished to the highest specification with a modern art deco feel throughout. Kensington Park Mews, W11 £3,700,000 FOR SALE // CHRIS SHAW Queens Gardens, W2 £2,950,000 SALE AGREED // CHRIS SHAW Darnley Terrace, W11 £3,100,000 SALE AGREED // CHRIS SHAW
10 PRIME CENTRAL / LONDON Burrows Road, NW10 £1,750,000 SALE AGREED // NATALIE MALKA Gayton Road, NW3 £3,950,000 SOLD // NATALIE MALKA Briardale Gardens, NW3 £2,595,000 SOLD // NATALIE MALKA An outstanding four bedroom Victorian terraced house, situated in the heart of Hampstead village, featuring the most exceptional views and west facing garden.
11 Fowlers Hill, GL7 £800,000 SALE AGREED // CHARLIE CRANE Beltran Road, SW6 £750,000 SALE AGREED // CHARLIE CRANE Rosslyn Hill, NW3 £750,000 SOLD // AARON POWDRILL Stephendale Road, SW6 £1,475,000 SOLD // JAMES GIBLIN Felden Street, SW6 £2,500,000 SOLD // JAMES GIBLIN freeservice“World-classandstress-experience.” Mr S. A.
12 Kelmscott Road, SW11 £1,500,000 SOLD (OVER GUIDE PRICE) // PAUL CLAPPISON LONDON “We used Moveli last year when selling our property. Result: a speedy sale at a better than expected price. Highly recommend!” David L Winsham Grove, SW11 £1,750,000 SOLD (OVER GUIDE PRICE) // PAUL CLAPPISON Taybridge Road, SW11 £1,325,000 SOLD // PAUL CLAPPISON Shorrolds Road, SW6 £2,000,000 SOLD // JAMES GIBLIN Rosebury Road, SW6 £1,100,000 FOR SALE // JAMES GIBLIN
13 Leckford Road, SW18 £1,150,000 SALE AGREED // JAMES WESTON A beautifully presented four bedroom family house set in the Openview Conservation area, comfortably within the catchment area of Earlsfield Primary School. Swaby Road, SW18 £1,100,000 SALE AGREED // JAMES WESTON Headington Road, SW18 £950,000 SALE AGREED // JAMES WESTON
14Greenstead Gardens, SW15 £735,000 SALE AGREED // DAVID MCGUINNESS Medfield Road, SW15 £774,999 FOR SALE // DAVID MCGUINNESS Abingdon Road, W8 £10,995,000 FOR SALE // DAVIDLONDONMCGUINNESS A newly built five/six-bedroom townhouse, ideally positioned along Abingdon Road, just off Kensington High Street, adjacent to Holland Park.
15 “We would ifrecommendhighlyMoveliyouarekeenona stress-free, efficient and effective process.” T. Miah Louisville Road, SW17 £800,000 SOLD // SIMON ARMITAGE Hugh Street, SW1V £700,000 SALE AGREED // ROB OATLEY Greycoat Street, SW1P £1,250,000 FOR SALE // ROB OATLEY Dafforne Road, SW17 £1,650,000 SOLD // SIMON ARMITAGE Brudenell Road, SW17 £1,050,000 FOR SALE // SIMON ARMITAGE
16 Cheriton Square, SW17 £4,200/MONTH LET // SAMANTHA ALLEN Gowan Avenue, SW6 £7,500/MONTH LET // SAMANTHA ALLEN Sloane Gardens, SW1W £15,000/MONTH LET // SAMANTHA ALLEN Broomwood Road, SW11 £5,416/MONTH LET // SAMANTHA ALLEN Randolph Crescent, W9 £5,200/MONTH LET AGREED // SAMANTHA ALLEN LONDON LETTINGS “Really professional, highly experienced and with a great eye for detail. Sam was a key reason in finding such good tenants for us - they also commented on how much they liked dealing with her.” Geoff S
17 Roehampton Lane, SW15 £519,000 FOR SALE // REUBEN VAN ZUMMEREN Cambalt Road, SW15 £649,950 SALE AGREED // REUBEN VAN ZUMMEREN Oxford Road, SW15 £1,850,000 SALE AGREED // REUBEN VAN ZUMMEREN Situated in a prime location in Putney, is this handsome six-bedroom four-bathroom Victorian home with a westerlyfacing garden and garage for two cars.
18 COUNTRY Between the Commons £887£880 LISTSOLD £1,285,941 £2,333,333£1,707,188£652,429+ 8.0% AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES SW11 TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £1m£0 £468k £718k £996k £1.59m £1.83m 1 YEAR 1 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR £2m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ +8 +% 8% +5% Balham £841£807 LISTSOLD £976,182 £1,750,942£1,253,829£560,4710.0% AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES SW11 TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £1m£0 £422k £632k £826m £1.33m £1.72m 3 YEAR 5 YEAR £2m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 0% +15% +12% Tooting £729£712 LISTSOLD £777,464 £1,104,830£989,329£467,915 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES SW16 TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £500k£0 £390k £546k £725k £930k £1.45m£1.5m£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +9% +9% 0.0% 1 YEAR 0% Earlsfield, Southfields & Wandsworth (SW18) £789£772 LISTSOLD £898,825 £1,695,886£1,180,191£535,004 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES SW16 TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £500k£0 £411k £602k £851k £1.26k £1.54m£1.5m£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +12% +9% + 5.0% 1 YEAR +5% Putney £772£755 LISTSOLD £888,935 £1,584,567£1,080,858£549,646 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £418k £607k £795k £2m£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 21 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR 3% + 3.0% £1.19m £1.74m 1 YEAR +8% +13% (CONTINUED ON PAGE 23)
19 Davenant Road, OX2 £1,400,000 FOR SALE // ROBERT COULES Wentworth Road, OX2 £1,200,000 SALE AGREED // ROBERT COULES Upper Farm, OX7 £3,350,000 SALE AGREED // ROBERT COULES An exceptional 4 bedroom property set in approx 3 acres of land. The accommodation comprises over 3500 sq ft of living space. Also included is a detached garage, dovecote and 1 bedroom cottage along with your very own lake.
20 Dome Hill, CR3 £1,250,000 SOLD // MELANIE ATTWATER Stanstead Road, CR3 £1,350,000 SOLD // MELANIE ATTWATER Weald Way, CR3 £1,350,000 SALE AGREED // MELANIE ATTWATER A rarely available, beautiful Victorian, detached family home, situated on a semi-rural, popular residential road. Best of both worlds, within close proximity to Caterham shops and restaurants, numerous golf courses, and open countryside. COUNTRY
21 Brighthampton, KT13 £1,000,000 (OFFERS IN EXCESS OF) SOLD // ROBERTO GHIRARDANI Oakhill Gardens, KT13 £385,000 (OFFERS IN EXCESS OF) SOLD // ROBERTO GHIRARDANI Myrtle Cottages, RH4 £515,000 (OFFERS IN EXCESS OF) SALE AGREED // ROBERTO GHIRARDANI “Their advice on pricing and how to manage the bids was spot on. They have an excellent modus operandi and I recommend them strongly.” Mr S. A. Croydon Road, CR3 £800,000 FOR SALE // MELANIE ATTWATER Ashley Road, KT12 £1,550,000 (OFFERS IN EXCESS OF) SOLD // ROBERTO GHIRARDANI
22 COUNTRY Wyld Green Lane, GU33 £500,000 UNDER OFFER // MIKE WALLIS Farm View, KT11 £630,000 SOLD // MIKE WALLIS Blackbrook Road, RH5 £ 1,050,000 SOLD (SEARCH AGENT) // MIKE WALLIS Old Lane, KT11 £626,000 SOLD // MIKE WALLIS Tilthams Green, GU7 £725,000 FOR SALE // MIKE WALLIS Northfield Place, KT13 £1,900,000 (OFFERS IN EXCESS OF) SOLD // ROBERTO GHIRARDANI
23 OxshottCobham £513£570£555£590 LISTLISTSOLDSOLD £2,338,639£1,266,955 £2,788,054£1,838,499£783,500£825,975£465,000£565,029+ 17% + 8% AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 DETACHEDDETACHEDSEMI-DETACHEDSEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDTERRACEDINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 INCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTH TOTAL GROWTH AVG. LISTING PRICES AVG. LISTING PRICES£1m£1m£2m£2m£0£0 £328k £214 £507k £360 £635k£737k £1.20m £2.22m£2.26m £1.05m BEDSBEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 11 22 33 4 5+5+ 1 YEAR 1 YEAR 3 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR 5 YEAR +17% +8% +9% +18% +16% Caterham £448£445 LISTSOLD £593,425 £931,642£497,585£445,605 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 DETACHEDSEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £224k £343k £516k£500k£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 21 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +20% +22% + 2% £705k £1.14m 1 YEAR +2% Weybridge £562£554 LISTSOLD £925,877 £1,719,636£763,036£623,015 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 DETACHEDSEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £279k £450k £737k £2m£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR 0.0% £1.25m £2.01m 1 YEAR 0% +23% Walton-on-Thames £552£539 LISTSOLD £748,845 £1,597,977£634,687£474,734 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 DETACHEDSEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £0 £274k £421k £656k £2m£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +17% +20% + 2% £952k £1.77m 1 YEAR +2% +15% 4 +12% Oxford £526£463 LISTSOLD £569,096 £610,713£520,073£316,697 AVG £/SQ.FT. AVG. SOLD PRICE SEPT 2022 SEMI-DETACHEDTERRACEDFLATSINCREASE ON SEPT 2021 AVG. SOLD PRICES TOTAL GROWTHAVG. LISTING PRICES £500k£0 £279k £380k £495k £767k £1.02m£1m BEDS AVG. PRICE FALL/RISE 1 2 3 4 5+ 3 YEAR 5 YEAR +10% +12% - 1.0% 1 YEAR 1%
Welcome Exceptionalto We help home owners navigate the minefield of selling by providing a one-to-one 5-star service from highly experienced estate agents that results in a lower stress, higher price sale. Sell your home with an expert 020 3150 moveli.co.uk0733 LONDON & COUNTRY EXPERTS 16.5 AVERAGE AEXPERIENCEYEARSOFMOVELIAGENT
