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TOP GCC Companies

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GCC COMPANIES 52 / NOVEMBER 2011

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This year witnessed heavy shocks for Gulf markets as the region reeled from global economic uncertainty and the Arab unrest. Kuwait Financial Centre research experts dissect the ongoing turmoil.

T

he region has reeled from a breathless seesaw of economic activity over the last few years. High market activity in 2009 was followed by a relatively quiet and positive 2010, only to be followed by more turmoil and high market fluctuations this year. This year has witnessed everything from natural disasters to ongoing financial shocks – from the Eurozone, to GCC debt issues and the US downgrade – in addition to political unrest. After rising 13 per cent during 2010, the S&P GCC Composite is down 11 per cent so far this year, for reasons not entirely corporate

or economic in nature. The substantial political turmoil that swept the region in the first and second quarters had a high impact on markets, with Arab bourses shedding roughly $45 billon in the last week of January. Unsurprisingly, Egyptian unrest exacted a particularly large impact given the country’s strong ties with GCC companies. Year-to-date, unstable Bahrain has been the worst performer, down nearly 19 per cent, while Qatar has been the best performer, stemming its losses at around five per cent. Liquidity has fluctuated wildly this year; 9M11 value traded came in at $254

billion, 11 per cent higher than 9M10, driven by strong trading in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while Kuwait saw its trading value halved during the period. The GCC is trading more expensively than Emerging Markets, at 12x (TTM) versus 10x for MSCI EM, which places the region on par with the MSCI World/S&P 500, which are trading at the same level. Within the GCC, there is wide disparity between valuations; Kuwait is the most expensive market, trading at around 14x versus Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which are at around 8x. However, the GCC has a history of strong dividends; overall, the dividend yield is at 3.5 per cent, slightly

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higher than MSCI EM and MSCI World at three per cent.

Debt market Much attention has been paid to the development of regional bond markets, with Qatar and the UAE leading the way towards creating organised markets with benchmark yields and pricing guidance. With banks tending to the short-end of project financing, GCC states need to develop avenues for long-term funding to support large-scale infrastructure and development projects. Bond issuances totalled $26.4 billion in 1H11 compared with $14 billion in 1H10.

lending. The fiscal balance is expected to drop from 11 per cent of GDP in 2011 to two per cent by 2013 as spending grows at about seven per cent p.a. Real GDP is expected to grow 6.5 per cent in 2011 (boosted by high oil prices) only to fall to about 3.6 per cent in 2012 (IMF Data).

Kuwait Regulatory reform 2011 has been all about regulatory reform for Kuwait. The Capital Market Authority (CMA) Law came into effect in March, which had a fairly negative effect on markets as the various concerned parties interpreted and commented on the

THE ROAD AHEAD There are too many unknown variables to allow specific insight into market performance over the next year. Lending seems to slowly be inching its way back, boosted by a high degree of public expenditure and development programmes, while provisions are coming down thus freeing up bottom line growth for banks. For telecoms, second and third operators seem to be better picks as they continue to grab market share from incumbents – a notable exception to this is Qtel, where acquisitions are bumping up top line growth. Industrials and petrochemicals continue to perform well on the back of high commodity prices, a trend that may be reversed in 2012 if the US and European economies continue to contract and, therefore, dent demand.

Saudi Arabia Spend, spend, spend The kingdom has launched a spending spree to boost infrastructure in the face of rising demand as well as ratcheting up social welfare spending to counteract unrest and unemployment. The $385 billion, five-year development plan is expected to spur economic activity by encouraging construction/real estate projects which, in turn, should spur bank

“Much attention has been paid to the development of regional bond markets, with Qatar and the UAE leading the way towards creating organised markets with benchmark yields and pricing guidance.”

regulations. The market has also been consumed with the various Zain deals; the telecom company was subject to a proposed 46 per cent stake acquisition by the UAE’s Etisalat (who walked away from the deal in February), this was followed by a proposed acquisition of Zain’s 25 per cent stake in Zain Saudi by Batelco and Kingdom Holding for $950 million (that deal also dissolved in late September). Overall, the Kuwait market has reacted mostly to local cues rather than regional or international ones.

UAE Recovery and opportunity The UAE has focused on repairing its image in the international community following the Dubai World debt saga and subsequent restructurings and bailouts. While Dubai’s debt overhang remains high (with $15 billion due in 2011 and 2012), foreign investors have proven themselves willing to particpate in debt restructuring in addition to the various bond issues by the emirate’s entities. While the real estate segment is not yet back to its former health, it is now in a period of consolidation. Moreover, regional political unrest, specifically in Bahrain, has given rise to opportunity for the UAE, with hotel occupancy up at the beginning of the year and some foreign entities relocating their offices from Bahrain to Dubai.

Qatar Stability and growth Qatar has managed to almost entirely bypass the global financial crisis and remains firmly on its growth trajectory. Real GDP growth is expected at 19 per cent for 2011 (IMF Data). Investment has remained steady at around 30 per cent of GDP while government expenditure has been growing at 15 per cent a year, surging to 24 per cent in 2010. Qatar Central Bank has made a number of directives and regulatory changes to safeguard the banking sector. Qatar is going full-steam ahead with spending plans; epitomised by the $125 billion, five-year National Development Strategy, which aims to expand infrastructure and boost the hydrocarbon sector. Qatar is also planning to invest around $25 billion in tourism over the next decade in preparation for the 2022 World Cup, the majority of which will be in hotels, in addition to the Summer Olympics in 2020 which the state is also planning to bid for.

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SECTOR FOCUS Banks Banks continue to be the bedrock of GCC markets, accounting for the majority of market cap and corporate earnings. Lending has remained muted over the last few years as banks became cautious in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the resulting sovereign debt issues in 2010 dampened confidence. Broadly speaking, GCC banks have upped provisions over the last two years to counteract rising non-performing loans, which are hovering at around six to eight per cent. However, a turnaround seems imminent for the sector; 1H11 net income for GCC banks was up 20 per cent while provisions were down 18 per cent. Deposits continue to outpace loans, rising 10 per cent in 1H11 (YoY) versus a six per cent growth in loans. Telecoms Revenue growth remains weak for regional telecoms as markets surpass saturation points, competition intensifies and ARPUs decline. All GCC markets exceed 100 per cent mobile penetration, with differentiation now coming in the bundling of various services in addition to the broadband segment, which should continue to see positive growth due to the myriad smartphones and tablets that

A turnaround for GCC banks seems imminent.

are coming to market. Many of the larger firms are flush with cash and have been looking for acquisition targets to boost revenue growth, a practice we expect to continue as competition intensifies. The region’s telecom firms, in general, constitute excellent yield plays, averaging about five per cent.

TOP TENS Most stocks have performed poorly in 2011 due to wild market fluctuations, economic uncertainty and political unrest. Consequently, all but two large caps are in the red on a YTD basis. The only gainers for the year have been SAFCO and Qatar National Bank, which are up 16 per cent and six per cent, respectively. By Market Cap There was a bit of a shake-up in terms of rankings by size among GCC stocks. The top two remain the same; SABIC at $74 billion (as of September 2011) followed distantly by Al Rajhi Bank at $27.7 billion. However, the third ranking has been usurped by Qatar National Bank, whose market cap surged to $24.9 billion from just under $20 billion at the end of 2010 due to a 25 per cent rights issue in early 2Q11. Also notable is Zain Group, which fell from third place at the end of

2010 to tenth place by September 2011 as the stock took a beating in 2011. By Revenues Chemicals and utilities had a good showing on the back of high commodity prices and market uncertainty in the first half of the year. SABIC retained its top position, bringing in $25 billion in revenues in 1H11 as oil prices soared. Furthermore, seven of the top ten firms are from Saudi Arabia, while the UAE has a showing from two firms. Telecoms also did well, as four of the top players in the sector saw high revenues. By Earnings Chemicals also reigned supreme in terms of bottom-line results; SABIC and Industries Qatar turned in a combined $5.3 billion in net profits for the half year. The remaining eight firms were evenly split between telecoms and banks with Kuwait’s Wataniya taking third on account of extraordinary earnings in 1Q11. Wataniya was also the only Kuwaiti firm to make an appearance; the remaining slots were divided between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Qatar National Bank was the highest earning GCC bank, with net income of $966 millon in 1H11. By Liquidity Given the trend in liquidity in 2011, Saudi Arabian firms topped the list of most liquid stocks, taking all top 10 spots. SABIC ranked first, with $31 billion traded in 9M11, followed distantly by Saudi Kayan Petrochemicals at $9.7 billion. The majority of trading was in industrials/chemicals, followed by banks and telecoms.

This research was conducted by M.R. Raghu, head of research, and Layla Al Ammar, assistant manager, from Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz). Markaz is an investment company offering asset management, corporate finance and private banking services. research@markaz.com

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TOP TENS: BREAKDOWN

TOP GCC Companies

Top GCC Firms by value traded (as of Sept-11)

RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company Alinma Bank Al Rajhi Bank Yanbu National Petrochemicals Company Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Company Saudi Mobile Telecommunications Company Etihad Etisalat Company National Industrialization Company

Value Traded ($mn) 31,227 9,708 8,556 4,696 4,513 3,868 3,806 3,574 3,398 3,368

Country Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Sector Chemicals Chemicals Banks Banks Chemicals Industrials Chemicals Telecom Telecom Conglomerate

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

Top GCC firms by revenue

RANK 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

COMPANY Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Saudi Telecom Company Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Company Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Qatar Telecom (QTel) Q.S.C. Saudi Electricity Company Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC Savola Group Company Etihad Etisalat Company National Industrialization Company

1H11 ($mn) 25,055 7,188 6,048 4,348 4,246 3,642 3,424 3,188 2,563 2,559

COUNTRY Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

SECTOR Chemicals Telecom Chemicals Telecom Telecom Utilities Utilities Consumers Telecom Conglomerate

1H11 ($mn) 4,211 1,145 1,113 1,021 966 945 929 593 587 577

COUNTRY Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia

SECTOR Chemicals Chemicals Telecom Telecom Banks Banks Telecom Banks Banks Telecom

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

Top GCC Firms by net income

RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

COMPANY Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Industries Qatar Q.S.C. National Mobile Telecom Company KSS Saudi Telecom Company Qatar National Bank SAQ Al Rajhi Bank Emirates Telecommunications Corporation Samba Financial Group Emirates NBD PJSC Etihad Etisalat Company

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

Top GCC companies by YTD Performance

RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Name YTD Performance per cent Saudi Arabian Fertilizers Company 16.17 Qatar National Bank SAQ 6.33 Etihad Etisalat Company -2.71 Saudi Electricity Company -2.86 Emirates Telecommunications Corporation -5.00 Industries Qatar QSC -10.87 Riyad Bank -11.28 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation -12.41 Kuwait Finance House KSC -16.21 Al Rajhi Bank -16.87

Country Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Kuwait Saudi Arabia

Sector Commodities Banks Telecom Utilities Telecom Chemicals Banks Chemicals Banks Banks

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

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TOP GCC companies by country UAE Top UAE Firms by Mcap (as of Sept-11) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Emirates Telecommunication Corporation National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC Emirates NBD Bank PJSC First Gulf Bank PJSC Emaar Properties PJSC Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co PJSC Mashreqbank PSC Dubai Financial Market PJSC Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC

MCap ($bn) 22.2 8.3 5.9 5.8 4.6 4.4 3.7 3.4 2.4 2.1

Sector Telecoms Banks Banks Banks Real Estate Banks Telecoms Banks Telecoms Banks

MCap ($bn) 24.9 18.7 16.5 7.1 5.4 5.2 5.1 3.8 3.5 3.2

Sector Banks Chemicals Real Estate Telecoms Banks Banks Banks Utilities Banks Real Estate

MCap ($bn) 5.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3

Sector Banks Telecoms Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Consumer Services Banks

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

QATAR Top Qatar Firms by Mcap (as of Sept-11) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Qatar National Bank SAQ Industries Qatar QSC Ezdan Real Estate Co QSC Qatar Telecom QSC Commercial Bank of Qatar QSC Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ Masraf Al Rayan QSC Qatar Electricity and Water Co QSC Doha Bank QSC Barwa Real Estate Co QSC

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

BAHRAIN Top Bahrain Firms by Mcap (as of Sept-11) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Gulf Monetary Group BSC EC Bahrain Telecommunications Co BSC Arab Banking Corporation BSC National Bank of Bahrain BSC Al Baraka Banking Group BSC Investcorp Bank BSC BBK BSC United Gulf Bank BSC Gulf Hotel Group Taib Bank BSC Closed

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

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OMAN Top Oman Firms by Mcap (as of Sept-11) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Emirates Telecommunication Corp Ltd National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC Emirates NBD Bank PJSC First Gulf Bank PJSC Emaar Properties PJSC Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co PJSC Mashreqbank PSC Dubai Financial Market PJSC Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC

MCap ($bn) 22.2 8.3 5.9 5.8 4.6 4.4 3.7 3.4 2.4 2.1

Sector Telecoms Banks Banks Banks Real Estate Banks Telecoms Banks Telecoms Banks

MCap ($bn) 74.0 27.7 18.1 14.8 12.1 10.5 9.9 9.4 7.9 7.5

Sector Chemicals Banks Telecoms Utilities Chemicals Banks Telecoms Banks Banks Banks

MCap ($bn) 15.2 14.7 8.8 4.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.4

Sector Banks Telecoms Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Banks Telecoms Banks

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

SAUDI ARABIA Top Saudi ARABIA Firms by Mcap (as of Sept-11) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Co Saudi Telecom Com Saudi Electricity Com Saudi Arabian Fertilizers Co Samba Financial Group Etihad Etisalat Co Riyad Bank Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

KUWAIT Top Kuwaiti Firms by Mcap (as of Sept-11) RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Company National Bank of Kuwait KSC Mobile Telecommunications Co KSC Kuwait Finance House KSC Gulf Bank KSC Commercial Bank of Kuwait SAK Ahli United Bank Boubyan Bank KSC Ahli United Bank BSC National Mobile Telecoms Co KSC Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait KSC

SOURCE: Reuters Eikon

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TOP GCC Companies Top 100 GCC stocks by market cap RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Company Name Saudi Basic Industries Corporation Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Co Qatar National Bank SAQ Emirates Telecommunications Corp Ltd Industries Qatar QSC Saudi Telecom Co Ezdan Real Estate Co QSC National Bank of Kuwait KSC Saudi Electricity Co Mobile Telecommunications Co KSC Saudi Arabian Fertilizers Co Samba Financial Group Etihad Etisalat Co Riyad Bank Kuwait Finance House KSC National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC Saudi British Bank Banque Saudi Fransi Kingdom Holding Co Qatar Telecom QSC Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co Yanbu National Petrochemical Co Saudi Arabian Mining Co Arab National Bank Emirates NBD Bank PJSC National Industrialization Co First Gulf Bank PJSC Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co Commercial Bank of Qatar QSC Gulf Monetary Group BSC EC Almarai Trading Co Ltd Qatar Islamic Bank SAQ Masraf Al Rayan QSC Gulf Bank KSC Emaar Properties PJSC Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC Commercial Bank of Kuwait SAK Ahli United Bank Boubyan Bank KSC Qatar Electricity and Water Co QSC Alinma Bank Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co PJSC Ahli United Bank BSC Doha Bank QSC Savola Group Co Mashreqbank PSC National Mobile Telecommunications Co KSC Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait KSC Barwa Real Estate Co QSC Jabal Omar Development Co

Country Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE Qatar Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Saudi Arabia Kuwait Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Bahrain Saudi Arabia Qatar Qatar Kuwait UAE UAE Kuwait Kuwait Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia

Market Cap ($bn) Sep-11 74.0 27.7 24.9 22.2 18.7 18.1 16.5 15.2 14.8 14.7 12.1 10.5 9.9 9.4 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.9

Ranking 9M11 *Dec-10 1 1 2 2 3 8 4 4 5 7 6 5 7 6 8 9 9 10 10 3 11 13 12 11 13 14 14 12 15 15 16 20 17 18 18 16 19 17 20 21 21 19 22 22 23 28 24 25 25 36 26 32 27 23 28 30 29 27 30 29 31 24 32 33 33 38 34 31 35 26 36 56 37 37 38 62 39 39 40 43 41 35 42 42 43 45 44 46 45 34 46 41 47 44 48 49 49 40 50 50

* The figures are for dec 2010, they do not represent last year’s gulf business ranking.

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TOP GCC Companies Top 100 GCC stocks by market cap RANK 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100

Company Name National Petrochemical Co Qatar Fuel QSC Southern Province Cement Co Bank Muscat SAOG Burqan Bank SAK Qatar Gas Transport Co Ltd QSC Saudi Cement Co Qatar Navigation QSC The Saudi Investment Bank Dubai Financial Market PJSC Saudi Industrial Investment Group Mobile Telecommunications Co Saudi Arabia Saudi Hollandi Bank Yamamah Saudi Cement Co Oman Telecommunications Co SAOG Aamal Co QSC Qatar International Islamic Bank QSC Kuwait Food Company Americana SAK Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC Union National Bank PJSC Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC Abu Dhabi National Energy Co PJSC National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah PSC Jarir Marketing Co Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co Vodafone Qatar QSC Saudi International Petrochemical Co Al Khalij Commercial Bank QSC Qassim Cement Co Sahara Petrochemical Co Mabanee Co SAK Closed Qatar Insurance Co SAQ Yanbu Cement Co Commercial Bank of Dubai PSC Bahrain Telecommunications Co BSC Bank AlBilad Qatar National Cement Co QSC Emaar The Economic City Kuwait Projects Co Holding KSCC Arab Banking Corporation BSC Makkah Construction and Development Co Bank Aljazira National Bank of Bahrain BSC Ahli Bank QSC Bank Dhofar SAOG Kuwait Cement Co KSC Agility Public Warehousing Co KSC United Arab Bank PJSC Advanced Petrochemical Co Company for Cooperative Insurance

Country Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Oman Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Oman Qatar Qatar Kuwait UAE UAE UAE UAE UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Bahrain Saudi Arabia Qatar Saudi Arabia Kuwait Bahrain Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Bahrain Qatar Oman Kuwait Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Market Cap ($bn) Sep-11 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

Ranking 9M11 *Dec-10 51 54 52 69 53 67 54 47 55 57 56 51 57 70 58 52 59 58 60 48 61 59 62 53 63 60 64 77 65 63 66 55 67 80 68 66 69 75 70 72 71 68 72 65 73 83 74 84 75 61 76 74 77 64 78 82 79 90 80 78 81 92 82 81 83 98 84 79 85 71 86 88 87 93 88 85 89 76 90 86 91 95 92 96 93 97 94 99 95 87 96 89 97 73 98 91 99 100 100 94

* The figures are for dec 2010, they do not represent last year’s gulf business ranking.

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Gulf Business November 2011 | Top 100 Companies