Morrison Founder and Principal Brent Morrison, discusses the importance of financial modeling in today’s ever-changing economy.
GETTING TO KNOW CARLOS PENNING
Learn more about Morrison’s new People Solutions Manager Carlos Penning, who leads Morrison’s executive recruiting and strategic planning engagements.
MORRISON SNAPSHOTS
Check out some of our highlights from this past quarter, including a team trip to watch the San Francisco Giants take on the Kansas City Royals!
CLIENT CORNER
There is always something new going on, so get caught up with our latest client news.
BUILT TO LAST: A GENERATIONAL LEGACY FOCUSED ON FAMILY
In the ever-evolving landscape of construction and equipment rental, few companies have demonstrated the resilience, adaptability, and community commitment that define Rental Guys.
From its humble beginnings in 1959 to its current status as a regional powerhouse, Rental Guys' journey is a testament to the enduring values of family ownership, customer service, and strategic growth.
Founded in 1959 as Guy Rents, Rental Guys began as a single-location, family-owned business in Chico, California.
Over the decades, the company has remained under the stewardship of the DuBose family, now spanning three generations. This continuity has fostered a culture deeply rooted in community engagement and personalized service.
The company's commitment to its customers and employees has been a cornerstone of its success. By treating customers like family and investing in employee development, Rental Guys has cultivated a loyal customer base and a dedicated workforce.
From its original location in Chico, Rental Guys has expanded its footprint to 14 locations across Northern California and Nevada, including cities like Redding, Sacramento, Reno, and Carson City. This growth has been both organic and strategic, exemplified by the 2024 acquisition of Aba Daba Rents, a third-generation familyowned rental company based in Sacramento and Citrus Heights. This acquisition not only expanded Rental Guys' geographic reach but also reinforced its commitment to family values and community ties.
Rental Guys has built a comprehensive inventory to serve a diverse clientele, including contractors, homeowners, and government agencies. Their offerings encompass a wide range of equipment categories:
• Aerial Work Platforms: Scissor lifts, boom lifts, and telehandlers.
• Earthmoving Equipment: Excavators, skid steers, and compact track loaders.
• Material Handling: Forklifts and pallet jacks.
• Power Solutions: Generators and light towers.
• Tools and Accessories: Concrete mixers, saws, and lawn equipment.
This extensive inventory ensures that customers can find the right equipment for projects of any scale, backed by the company's commitment to maintenance and safety.
In an industry where downtime can be costly, Rental Guys has invested in technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. The company utilizes telematics on all machines to manage service intervals and monitor fault codes, ensuring minimal downtime for customers.
Additionally, Rental Guys offers a customer portal for easy access to rental information, billing, and equipment tracking. This digital integration streamlines the rental process, making it more convenient for clients to manage their projects.
Beyond its business operations, Rental Guys is deeply invested in the communities it serves. The company regularly sponsors
CONTINUED ON INSIDE RIGHT PANEL
A ROADMAP FOR FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
(COMPLETE WITH DETOURS, SHORTCUTS,
SIDE TRIPS, AND SCENIC ROUTES)
Financial projections should not be thought of as just an accounting exercise, but rather a key strategic tool. If they aren’t, I’m not sure I see the point, and financial modeling is arguably more important than ever in today’s volatile economy shaped by inflation, supply chain pressures, shifting demand, tariffs, trade wars and rumors of war, and heaven knows what else on any given day. Well-crafted financial forecasts go well beyond simple budgeting.
Following are a few thoughts on how to develop financial projections that don’t just check a box but can serve as a cornerstone of informed decision making.
STEP 1: REALITY CHECK
The strongest financial projections are built from the ground up based on how your business truly functions. This means understanding and mapping key operational drivers such as customer behavior, production capacity, pricing levers, staffing needs, and seasonality. For example, a manufacturer should consider supply chain throughput, raw material pricing, and overhead allocation. A retailer might focus on foot traffic, average sale, the impact of tariffs and inflation, and regional seasonality. Farming operations need to consider weather impacts, yield fluctuations, demand changes, labor availability, and incoming and outgoing tariffs for foreign markets.
Projections become more reliable and useful when they mirror the realworld mechanics of your business. Grounded forecasts should spotlight real constraints and opportunities, helping to avoid surprises and to plan with more confidence.
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS, BECAUSE CHANGE HAPPENS
A single scenario forecast is not a strategy; to be effective, your projections should model multiple possible outcomes. I suggest creating at least three core scenarios:
• Base case: Reflects the most realistic expectations.
• Upside case: Builds in better than expected sales, cost efficiencies, or growing market share.
• Downside case: Accounts for challenges like slower revenue, rising costs, and regulatory hurdles.
Scenario modeling allows organizations to test resilience and understand how strategic choices might shift under different conditions. By assessing multiple potential futures, you will be better equipped to act decisively and adjust quickly when reality diverges from expectations – which is pretty much guaranteed.
MAKE THE ASSUMPTIONS CLEAR
I cannot emphasize this enough: Make the assumptions behind the numbers both visible and challengeable. When Morrison does projections, we prepare a line-by-line list of the assumptions behind each number. I would much rather have someone disagree with or challenge our supporting assumptions than have little or no idea of what’s driving the numbers. When I review projections, I read the assumptions first, then look at the numbers. Numbers are just numbers without clear explanations, and only gain meaning when the reader knows what’s behind them.
Financial models can be unintelligible if the inputs, formulas, and reasoning behind them are tangled. A good model separates variables such as growth rates, pricing, hiring plans, and conversion rates from the mechanics of the forecast itself. Use named ranges, dedicated input tabs, and clear versioning. Transparency improves a model’s credibility, leading to it being taken more seriously by the team and to inform and collaborative decision making.
TIE THE PROJECTIONS TO STRATEGIC MILESTONES
Financial forecasts mean more when they are anchored to specific initiatives. Are you launching a new product? Entering a new market? Hiring a sales team? Such events should be explicitly reflected in your projections.
Map expected costs, timing, and ROI to each initiative, and ensure that leadership is aligned as to key milestones and success criteria. This will make the forecast a living document of strategy, allowing you to assess performance not just in dollars but by progress toward meaningful and agreed upon goals.
DRIVER-BASED MODELING
Driver-based modeling is an approach to financial planning that identifies an organization’s key business drivers and develops forecasts built on them, as opposed to just extrapolating numbers based on historical results. Driver-based forecasting links your financial outcomes to important operational activities such as new product launches, seasonal use, regional or global market expansion, and projected customer turnover.
This approach allows for more precise forecasting and helps identify which levers can be adjusted to influence results. It’s not just about knowing where you’re headed, it’s about understanding how to get there faster and more efficiently.
IT’S ABOUT THE BENJAMINS
Revenue growth is great but cash is king. Many growing businesses face a paradox: increasing sales but declining liquidity. To manage this, a financial projection might include a rolling multi-week cash forecast so you’ll know where you stand under various scenarios. Model the timing of inflows and outflows, especially accounts receivable, payroll, vendor payments, and capital expenditures. Be realistic about payment terms and inventory cycles. Accurate cash forecasting ensures that leaders can meet obligations, seize growth opportunities, and avoid unexpected shortfalls.
IT’S SENSITIVE
While scenario modeling (described above) explores broad outcomes, sensitivity analysis focuses on understanding how individual variables impact results. This helps isolate the most volatile or influential assumptions. For example, test how changes in customer acquisition costs, churn rate, potential tariffs, or pricing affects EBITDA. Sensitivity analysis reveals which levers have the most strategic impact, helping guide prioritization and risk mitigation.
REALITY CHECK: PART 2
A projection that isn’t updated or compared against real results quickly loses relevance. Build systems to compare actuals to forecasts and analyze variance. Track KPIs such as:
• Revenue vs plan.
• Gross margin shifts.
• Operating expense deviations.
Regular reviews should focus not only on where you missed specific targets but why, and what you’ll do next. Reality check forecasting builds accountability and improves forecast accuracy over time, leading to better decisions across the board.
IT’S A TEAM SPORT
If only finance owns or understands the model, opportunities are going to be missed. Let’s face it: the accounting department tracks the numbers but doesn’t (and shouldn’t) control the operational decisions that drive them. Involve department heads and functional leaders (e.g., sales, marketing, operations, etc.) throughout the process in shaping assumptions and interpreting the results.
Use financial planning and analysis tools or shared cloud-based spreadsheets with clear access controls, and make the forecasts and results analysis part of ongoing leadership discussions. Collaboration strengthens the forecast and increases cross-functional buy-in, making it a more effective tool.
KEEP IT CLEAR
Even the most accurate model will fail if it’s poorly communicated. Avoid overwhelming stakeholders with rows of data. Instead, highlight trends, inflection points, and strategic implications using dashboards, charts, and concise commentary. And, as noted, make sure you have clear documented assumptions.
Tailor insights for your audience (e.g., investors, board members, or internal teams) and focus on what matters most. Clear presentation helps ensure that forecasts inform decisions and become part of the strategic dialogue and not just background noise.
WRAPPING IT UP
Well done financial projections are not just spreadsheets, they are strategic tools that help businesses see around corners, navigate turbulence, and allocate resources where they matter most.
Financial projection methodologies should evolve along with your business. As your organization grows or pivots, so too should your forecasting methods. Incorporate feedback loops, review assumptions regularly, and don't be afraid to rebuild or restructure your models to better reflect current operations and future goals.
Forecasts that reflect your operational realities, test different futures, and engage your leadership team elevates finance from a compliance function to a key driver of strategic success. In this world of uncertainty, that kind of foresight is not just valuable, it is increasingly essential.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Principal Brent Morrison founded Morrison in 2002. Over four decades leading and advising companies in agriculture, processing, manufacturing, and distribution, Brent has prepared, reviewed, and analyzed more financial projections than he can count. How can Morrison's approach to financial projections help your business or organization gain strategic clarity?
RENTAL GUYS
local events, such as the Shasta Builders Exchange Golf Tournament and the Nevada County Contractors Association Annual Golf Tournament. These engagements reflect the company's belief in giving back and supporting local development.
Moreover, Rental Guys has participated in community outreach programs like the Contractors Caring for Kids Toy Drive and Durham High School FFA’s Field Day, demonstrating a commitment to social responsibility and youth development.
As Rental Guys continues to grow, the company remains focused on strategic expansion and innovation. Plans include further investment in rental fleet diversification, technological enhancements, and potential new locations to better serve the Northern California and Nevada regions.
The company's leadership, grounded in family values and a customer-
centric approach, positions Rental Guys to adapt to industry changes while maintaining the personalized service that has been its hallmark for over six decades.
From a single rental store in Chico to a multi-location enterprise, Rental Guys exemplifies the power of steadfast values, strategic growth, and community engagement. As the company looks to the future, it carries forward a legacy built on trust, quality, and an unwavering commitment to serving its customers and communities.
Morrison has thoroughly enjoyed having the honor and privilege of coming alongside Rental Guys and providing assistance on multiple projects, including recruiting and bookkeeping services. We look forward to supporting the mission of Rental Guys as they continue to grow and make an impact on their customers and their communities.
MORRISON SNAPSH TS
SENATOR ADAM SCHIFF VISITS BUTTE COUNTY
U.S. Senator Adam Schiff sat down with the Butte County Farm Bureau in April to discuss issues of importance to the county’s $600 million agriculture industry. Morrison Managing Principal Toni Scott, a member of the Butte County Farm Bureau Board of Directors, used the opportunity to discuss the need for a new farm bill, which is now two years overdue. Schiff is the first California senator to serve on the Senate Agriculture Committee in more than 30 years.
PETERS FAMILY WELCOMES NEW ADDITION
Morrison’s Business and Accounting Advisory Manager Tim Peters and his wife Jamie welcomed their fourth child in April. The 8-pound 10-ounce baby girl joins sisters Karamea and Mackinnon and brother Wellington in keeping their parents on their toes. Welcome to the world Dunedin Ann!
REGAN PENNING HONORED WITH COMMUNITY MEMBER OF THE YEAR AWARD
In April, we celebrated our very own Grants Consultant, Regan Penning, who was honored as Beta Sigma Phi Sorority’s Community Woman of the Year! Regan brings a selfless spirit and adds value to whatever she is involved in – including our team. In addition to being a wonderful grant writer, Regan volunteers through community theatre and was heavily involved in Park Fire recovery efforts, particularly in support of Richardson Springs.
MORRISON GOES TO THE BALLPARK
Some of our Morrison Team members were able to enjoy a sunny day in San Francisco and a Giants Game in May. The Giants lost to the Royals, but a day out of the office is always a win! And another plus: no serious cases of sunburns were reported!
NAPA VALLEY GRAPEGROWERS 50TH ANNIVERSARY
What could be better than celebrating a monumental occasion with a client in a beautiful Napa vineyard. Toni Scott and Jessica Vuk, Morrison Managing Principal and Grants Consultant respectively, attended Napa Valley Grapegrowers’ 50th anniversary in May. The venue was beautiful and the special 50th anniversary program was incredibly heartfelt and touching. All in all, it was a great event to connect with colleagues and enjoy the picturesque scenery!
MEET
CARLOS PENNING
MORRISON PEOPLE SOLUTIONS MANAGER
Morrison is delighted to introduce Carlos Penning as our new People Solutions Manager. Carlos joined Morrison in June and is a seasoned organizational health consultant with more than 25 years of experience recruiting, leading, developing, and transforming leadership teams across diverse sectors and cultures.
Carlos’ background includes nearly a decade as Executive Director of Youth With A Mission Chico, where he led over 100 staff and volunteers across international initiatives. He currently serves as chairman on several nonprofit boards in the U.S. and Latin America, and most recently consulted through Ginosko International, where he guided organizations through succession planning, leadership transitions, and strategic realignments— often resulting in stronger cultures and increased revenue.
His professional journey uniquely blends executive experience, team-building acumen, and people-first leadership. Carlos' approach combines emotional intelligence and strategic insight, helping organizations identify high-caliber talent and foster lasting growth. As a certified facilitator of Patrick Lencioni’s Working Genius model, he leverages proven frameworks to build thriving, resilient teams.
Carlos’ deep experience across both business and nonprofit sectors, combined with his passion for leadership development and organizational health, make him an excellent resource to support our client’s needs. Carlos holds a master’s degree in Team-Based Communication and is dedicated to partnering with clients to achieve their strategic goals.
Q&A WITH CARLOS
WHAT IS ONE THING YOU ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO MOST IN THE FUTURE?
I’m passionate about being a father – a “papa” as my boys call me. I love walking alongside my three sons as they tackle life with their adventurous hearts. Being their father is a gift to me and seeing the future unfold for them is something to look forward to.
WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE TRADITION?
Making Chilean empanadas during the Christmas season, accompanied by a delicious Chilean wine. I love our Chilean cuisine and the memories that it carries.
WHAT IS ONE THING YOU ARE CURRENTLY LEARNING OR WANT TO LEARN?
Life is a vulnerable journey. We were never meant to do it alone. Staying open and genuine with the people I love. Staying close and intentional with the relationships I’ve been gifted. Breathing deep. Never forgetting to look outside of my closest circle.
WHAT IS YOUR PROUDEST ACCOMPLISHMENT?
My brother and I wrote a book about our lives. From Chile, to Minnesota, to the ends of the earth. Writing that book brought deep moments of laughter, gratitude, tears, perspective and healing.
WHAT IS THE MOST INTERESTING PLACE YOU HAVE VISITED?
Meeting the Miskito people living deep in the jungles of the Mosquito Coast in Central America. I remember the first time I flew into one of their remote villages. No roads, you either walked across the jungles for days on end or flew in on a small plane. What an adventure!
WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE THING ABOUT WORKING AT MORRISON?
I love the team culture! Everyone working together, in tandem, to serve our clients with excellence. The vulnerability, the joy, the goofiness, the professionalism. Amazingly humble leaders. I’m so grateful to have joined this team.
CORNER CLIENT
The Morrison Client Corner is a regular feature of our newsletter. Here, you’ll find updates on what a number of our clients are up to, their achievements and milestones, and the generally great things happening in their companies or organizations.
CMAB ANNOUNCES LEADERSHIP TRANSITION
The California Milk Advisory Board (CMAB) has announced Vice President of Business and Development Bob Carroll will serve as the organization’s next Chief Executive Officer, succeeding John Talbot, who is retiring at the end of 2025 after serving as CEO for more than a decade. Carroll joined CMAB in 2015 with a wealth of domestic and international consumer brand experience including leadership of international strategy and development efforts for Blue Diamond Growers and brand management for Kraft Foods. Congratulations to both Bob and John!
If you’re a client of ours, we’d love to stay up to date with what is going on within your organization and invite you to share your highlights in this space. Feel free to send any press releases, newsletters, or happenings to jmcchesney@morrisonco.net
AOOPA RECEIVES $2 MILLION TO STUDY U.S. OLIVE OIL
The American Olive Oil Producers Association (AOOPA) was selected to receive a $2 million cooperative agreement by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under the Assisting Specialty Crop Exports (ASCE) Initiative to conduct a four-year study of olive oil produced throughout the United States. The ASCE initiative is an innovative USDA program to address non-tariff trade barriers in overseas markets. AOOPA’s project, in collaboration with the University of California, Davis; University of Georgia; and Modern Olives laboratory will test and compile olive oil data from the seven olive oil producing states across the United States.
FOREMOST FARMS NAMES NEW CEO
Wisconsin-based dairy cooperative Foremost Farms USA has announced that Brenda Dehart, the cooperative’s current Chief Financial Officer, has been named President and Chief Executive Officer. A native of rural Illinois with roots in dairy farming, Dehart previously served as CFO at Edlong and held leadership roles at Sensient Technologies and Kerry Inc., managing complex businesses across finance, operations, and quality. She joined Foremost Farms USA in February 2024, driving financial transparency, long-term growth, and cross-functional collaboration.
