Goya olive crop report 2014 initial october 2014

2014 – CROP REPORT - OLIVES October 2014

GOYA EN ESPAÑA, S.A.U. Seville - SPAIN

2014– Crop Report

2014 – INITIAL CROP REPORT Olives - SPAIN

Index • CROP ESTIMATION • PRODUCTION TREND • CROP BALANCE • PRODUCTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES • U.S. OLIVE IMPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

2014 – Crop Report

2014 – CROP ESTIMATION (3rd Forecast) Olives - SPAIN

 Total crop estimation lower than last year  Third forecast reduced quantities by 3% from previous forecast  Weather conditions and olive oil prices will affect final quantities harvested.

(000 TM)

VARIETY \ CAMPAING

2013

2014

600

3rd Forecast

GORDAL / QUEEN

11

24

500

MANZANILLA

148

189

400

HOJIBLANCA

289

231 300

CARRASQUEÑA

64

26

CACEREÑA

40

27

OTHER

21

20

TOTAL

573

517

*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA

200

100

0

GORDAL

M ANZANILLA

HOJIBLANCA CARRASQUEÑA

2013

CACEREÑA

OTHER

2014

TOTAL

2014 – Crop Report 2014 – PRODUCTION TREND Olives - SPAIN

(000 TM)

CAMPAING

2014

% CHANGE

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

GORDAL / QUEEN

32

51

38

29

34

11

24

+118%

MANZANILLA

203

134

210

155

156

148

189

+28%

HOJIBLANCA

183

209

254

255

235

289

231

-20%

CARRASQUEÑA

28

43

44

40

26

64

26

-57%

CACEREÑA

23

33

33

26

19

40

27

-33%

OTHER

17

20

21

17

18

21

20

=

TOTAL

486

489

600

521

488

573

517

-10%

VARIETY

*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA

3rd FORECAST

2014– Crop Report CROP BALANCE (as August 30th) Olives - SPAIN

 Availability increased by 6%  Total Usage growth +1%, with 66% for exports and 34% for domestic market.  Estimated stocks are 14% higher than previous year.

900 800 700 600 500 400

(000 TM)

CAMPAING BALANCE

2012/13

2013/14

AVAILABITILY

840

891

TOTAL USAGE

482

486

FINAL STOCK

312

354

300 200 100 0 A vailab ilit y

T o t al U sag e

2012/13

*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA

F inal St o ck

2013/14

2014 – Crop Report PRODUCTION IN MAJOR EXPORT COUNTRIES OLIVES

(000 TM)

CAMPAING

2014/15

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

SPAIN

486

489

600

521

488

573

517

GREECE

105

107

135

130

197

100

135

MAROCCO

100

90

110

100

100

100

90

ARGENTINA

95

220

90

150

60

140

28

TURKEY

300

390

330

400

410

430

350

ITALY

69

59

70

76

74

42

78

PORTUGAL

13

12

10

9

9

14

16

EGYPT

440

409

350

385

453

400

450

PERU

9

75

73

81

80

80

??

EEUU

48

24

154

26

71

68

40

COUNTRY

ESTIMATION

 Spain is the biggest producer of olives in the world, with 20% of the total world production, around 2,511,500 Mt.  Other major producer countries include: Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Argentina &, Morocco. .

*Source: IOOC – ASAJA

2014 – Crop Report U.S. OLIVE IMPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN OLIVES

ORIGIN

2013 t

%

SPAIN

66.226

50%

GREECE

27.757

21%

MOROCCO

14.357

11%

ARGENTINE

5.128

4%

ITALY

4.300

3%

TURKEY

3.380

3%

EGYPT

2.594

2%

PORTUGAL

1.456

1%

OTHER

6.799

5%

TOTAL

131.997

100%

Turkey Italy 3% 3%

Egypt Portugal 1% 2%

Other 5%

Morocco Argentine 11% 4%

Spain 50% Grece 21% Spain

Grece

Morocco

Argentine

Turkey

Egypt

Portugal

Other

*Source: IOOC, compiled from data of U.S. customs statistics – (General Imports)

Italy

2014 – Crop Report INITIAL CROP REPORT Olives - SPAIN MAIN FACTS

 Olive crop for 2014

is estimated to be higher than last year’s crop.

 By variety, Queens are double in tonnage from last year. No commercial carryover available.

Quality and size are good, with smaller percentage of azafairon. We should expect lower prices compared to last year prices. Harvest has finalized.  For Manzanillas, tonnage is expected to be 20/30% higher than last year, but final quantities will depend on weather conditions. Good sizes and quality. Costs should be very similar to last year.

Still a couple of weeks to finish the harvest.  Hojiblancas will be lower in quantity and higher in price, due to the effect of olive oil prices and a short crop expected for olive oil season. Still at the very beginning of the harvest.  Other cost factors, specially the euro/dollar exchange rate, will have a more important impact in the final cost of the products.  Spain is still the largest olive producer in the world, with 20% of total production. Seville continues to be the most important region in Spain for table olives.  Spain remains the number one supplier for olives imported into the US, with 50% share.