Conclusion Only a long-term and overarching strategy established for all identified policy areas has a reasonable chance of achieving the EU objectives. It should combine policy initiatives targeted at enhancing the efficiency of the system through better organisation, infrastructure and pricing with those that are more focused on technology development and deployment. It should also provide a framework for action at all levels of government. This conclusion is in line with the Europe 2020 Strategy which highlights that a resource-efficient agenda implies a massive technological improvement and a radical change in the transport system. Therefore, taking also into account the fact that the Commission has adopted in June 2009 a Communication on “A sustainable future for transport: Towards an integrated, technologyled and user friendly system”, the Commission is of the opinion that a White Paper is the most appropriate sui generis document, in terms of simplicity and coherence with the objectives set out in section 3.1 above, to lay down a comprehensive and strategically coordinated EU action. 4.3.
Description of policy options
131.
In light of the above, the Commission has identified three policy options – besides the baseline scenario – that combine specific EU actions across the seven policy areas described above. The design of policy options build on the achievements and deficiencies of current policies outlined in section 2 and in Appendix 2. All three policy options have been designed to reach the same CO2 emission reduction target, i.e. 60%88 over 1990 levels.
132.
All three options envisage action in all seven policy areas and have in common a certain number of initiatives. What distinguishes them is the intensity of intervention that, depending on the option, is higher in some specific field and lower in others.
133.
Policy Option 3 is designed to show the effect of policies that emphasise the rapid deployment of new powertrains, by imposing very stringent CO2 standards on new vehicles and by accompanying them with appropriate innovation policies putting in place the necessary framework conditions. It is assumed that this approach would be the most effective in reducing the costs and the time of introduction of new technologies.
134.
Policy Option 2 is designed to show the effect of policies that rely less on performance standards and on active technological deployment and more on managing mobility and on carbon pricing. It is assumed that the industry will not outperform the less stringent CO2 standards for road and rail vehicles and that the necessary reduction in emission is achieved – in addition to the full pricing of externalities and to the elimination of tax distortions – by letting the carbon price rise by the necessary amount. This could be taken to represent the effect of high carbon
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Policy Options 2, 3 and 4 include the same energy price environment as the “Effective and widely accepted technology” scenario from the Impact Assessment on “Low-carbon economy 2050 roadmap”. In the “Effective and widely accepted technology” scenario, with global climate action, lower energy demand is assumed to keep energy prices at lower levels relative to the Reference scenario. Oil price is assumed to be 80 $/barrel in 2030 and 70 $/barrel in 2050 (in year 2008-dollars).
39
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