April month 2017 magzine money classic

COMMODITY

FOREX is not really bad for NPAs

A bad bank is set up to buy the bad loans of a

bank with signiďŹ cant nonperforming assets

(NPAs) at market price.

MARKET

STOCK

Bad bank

www.moneyclassicresearch.com forex commodity stock market

JOURNAL INVESTMENT

interna onal policy

Donald trump surprise-plus-shock victory he has made

MONEY CLASSIC

From the day of US elect-Donald Trump's

for.........

important decisions like proposed travel ban

MAGAZINE

MONEY CL ASSIC

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LEGAL DISCLAIMER

The Stock Tips and other information given in the magazine are purely a view-point of the team and there is no guarantee of the returns. Hence all the readers are advised to apply their discretion and consult their financial advisors before acting on any recommendations given in the magazine. Money Classic will not be responsible for any losses incurred (if any) by following our recommendations.

All data and reports in the Money Classic magazine are only information service for the readers and not the individualized recommendations.

Feedback on Last Issue We are glad to stress that the accuracy achieved in the calls given in last edition is near 90%.

Nine out of the ten calls (predictions) were beneficial and hit the target.

Keep it up MCR and congratulations for consistent performance.

MONEY CL ASSIC

FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK

O

ur magazine Money Classic provides the latest news and trends on all the events of

na onal and interna onal importance and affairs related to stock market. Money Classic is a one stop source for the latest stock market news and informa on on technical analysis.

We provide valuable recommenda ons from which the traders and investors can benefit.

By having proper updates with the help of Money Classic, one can gain good knowledge in stock markets, commodity markets and the forex markets. Money Classic has established a brand image in the market and we are looking to be a leader in the na onal and interna onal markets as an established financial periodical.

In stock market trading the na onal and interna onal news plays a very important role on the price movements of the stocks. To trade in the stock market and to gain a good profit from the stock market, one should have a proper eye on the current news and stories. The events taking place in the country as well as in the outer world, effects the price movements in the stock market.

MR. DEEPAK MISHRA

MONEY CL ASSIC

01 PAGE 01

India Cashless and Digital Economy Boon or Bane

02

CON

PAGE 05

Donald trump

07

international policy

03

PAGE 20

PAGE 08

GST to be roll out with the overall positive impact on growth

Price patterns

04

06

PAGE 10

IPOs catch investors' eye, raise Rs 811 crore in Financial Year 2017

PAGE 18

15

How do you know when to buy & sell? Find out here!!!

Signal provider, “Divergence

PAGE 49

The Most Preferred Indicator: PARABOLIC SAR

05 PAGE 14

Impact over the market when Supreme court Ban BS3 modules from 1st april

MONEY CL ASSIC

TENT

11 PAGE 29

How to use 'Supertrend' indicator to find buying and selling opportunities in market ?

12 PAGE 31

CASH RECOMMENDATIONS

13

10

PAGE 39

PAGE 27

FUTURESRECOMMENDATIONS

Bad bank is not really bad for NPAs

14 PAGE 47

Economy will be reinforcing a new amendment in the

09 PAGE 25

OIL PRICING POLICY

08 PAGE 23

Relative strength index (RSI) helps to win stock market

Using The ADX Indicator To Find And Trade Trends

16 PAGE 51

SC's verdict liquor bans in States denotify highways across country

BOON OR BANE

INDIA CASHLESS AND DIGITAL ECONOMY

T

STOCK MARKET

01

he quote above perfectly

powerful to the historically powerless.

denote that

now everyone has a voice.”

the desire of

m o v i n g t o wa rd s

In an interview the World bank CEO

digitalisa on has increased the ecstasy

KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA has added her

for transforma on. The one and only

views on the impact of demone sa on

country which faced hazardous situa on

policy - she appreciated the Indian

and overcome derived itself from being

government for this treacherous policy

cashless.

amendment for the 8 November move

As the new policy amendment of

which banned Rs500 and Rs1,000 bills,

November 8, 2016 announcement by

comes a er the Interna onal Monetary

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi

Fund said in November that it supported

which is aimed at elimina ng black

India's efforts to fight corrup on

money and corrup on, apart from

through currency control measures,

dealing with the counterfeit currency

Demone sa on may have caused some

industry is one of the historic decision

hardship to people living in the cash

taken by government in India. This

economy but in the long run the move

commencement has influenced

will help foster a clean and digi zed

the

charisma to move digital “social media

economy.

has a historical shi from the historically

“Digitalisation is the key for transformation” As it was a giant step taken towards the transforma on, the one night changes has led in greater impacts over the market , fully upside-down it became more hec c for the local people to survive for that par cular dura on with empty pockets businesses bared great losses and infinite no. of other financial problems all over the economy.

STOCK MARKET

While demone sa on has, in the short term, created some impact on businesses dependent on cash, in the long term the impact will be posi ve. The reforms India is targe ng are profound, India is the bright spot in today's global economy and it is visible in the country's performance and more so in the aspira ons of the people here.

There might be many relevant criterias if we go deep in this ma er some may be put as in the nega ve corner and some in the posi ve among those priorly some of the following are categorised below :-

DIGITAL ECONOMY IS A BOON

G

eneral public has welcomed this decision

and they are not complaining even though

many of us are standing in long queue for

withdrawing cash from ATM. People of India is now really happy that this measure will eliminate the widespread black money and counterfeit currency.

Many hoarders of cash are now deposi ng cash in bank which will boost economy. Employees of bank may be facing some temporary problems but at the end they will get benefited and enjoy more bonus as the deposits in banks will increase many fold and new accounts are being opened by many persons. Crores of people got enrolled in banking system through the use of incen ve like Pradhan Mantri Bima Yojna etc.

There is sharp increase in the sales of POS machines. The

online portal for shopping is booming a lot. The use of online wallet like Paytm, Freecharge etc. are increasing day by day.

Many websites are now integra ng payment gateways to get the online payment of the products and services.

India is now witnessing true digital economy as more and more educated persons are using online banking systems, credit cards, debit card, payment wallets and online shopping portals. Many people now prefer to pay through card in shopping malls and restaurants.

The increased use of the online and digital transac ons will increase transparency and remove corrup on from economy.

Government agencies involved in tracking taxable income will find it easier to track the transac ons and find records from different bank. The seeding of Aadhar Card and PAN no. in transac ons will further help in tracing such transac ons and help in minimizing corrup on.

02

STOCK MARKET

03

O

ur country youth might be using phones and smartphones but very few of them prefer to use the mobile for transac ons and shopping. The safety and security of the internet connec ons poses its own challenges.

Moreover popula on do not know how to use internet and how to do online transac ons. The limited knowledge of netbanking and online shopping portal for sales and purchase.Except Reliance Jio, other internet providers charge heavy charge for mobile data and this poses another limita on to the use of the internet which is essen al for going digital and making our economy a smart economy.

DIGITAL ECONOMY IS BANE India has a low internet penetra on and a lower smartphone penetra on, a disrup on in internet connec vity adds to the hurdles.There are cases where the government had itself caused these disrup ons. Since 2014, there have been 39 internet blackouts.

The reasons of these disrup ons being protests, communal violence and other an cipated clashes in various states. A major por on of the total disrup ons took place in Jammu and Kashmir because of the unrest that followed the killing of Burhan Wani, the commander of Hizbul Mujahedeen. In fact, the prepaid internet connec ons s ll remain suspended there. “The main aim of amending the policy was to deliver the right money to the right people and to discover black money and its owners from across the economy and invest it for the be erment of the common ci zensâ€?, as in a conference he said Despite having a deep understanding of the temporary diďŹƒcul es it might cause to the common man, the Prime Minister, in a courageous move, decided to withdraw Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 denomina ons in view of the gigan c propor ons black money was acquiring, leading to a virtual parallel economy. And this will not end up here it will be in a series where more new policies will be emerging for the economy's development.

STOCK MARKET

04

STOCK MARKET

F

05

rom the day of US elect-

Donald Trump's surprise-

plus-shock victory he has

made important decisions like

Donald trump INTERNATIONAL POLICY

proposed travel ban from certain countries and a counter-terrorism strike in Yemen without any input

ISLAMIC STATE/SYRIA-

from the State Department. With the US elec on, not only US economy but other countries'

The gruesome beheadings and the

including India's economy also affected. Trump proposed his first budget in March and cut the state department's funding by 28%.

Trump has defined repeatedly that the American global interest almost purely in economic terms. So that he

We have discussed some of the majorly affected

extremist group's use of social media as a pla orm to recruit and inspire acts of terrorism have upended

countries with Donald

d e ca d e s o f co u nte r te r ro r i s m

Trump's international

strategies forced US and European

policy

officials to grasp for a new approach.

has proposed foreign policy by which

The geographic foothold of terror

all the major countries including

network is contrac ng but its ability

India affected.

to inspire terror a acks across the world makes it one of the world's deadliest terror groups. Mr. Trump has proposed changing interna onal

STOCK MARKET

06

rules that forbid the

from some of these comments between a backlash from

military's use of torture to

some current and former military officials but not at large. A

deal with suspected

crucial part of his syria strategy appears to be giving Russia

North Korea-

terrorists. He also proposed

more flexibility to stabilize the region. Trump did not disclose

The US and other countries

killing the terrorists' family

plan fully in detail to defeat Islamic State because it would

were focusing on Islamic

members of terrorists to

take away the element of surprise. He said it will take 30,000

State, North Korea has

serve as a deterrent to

US troops to defeat ISIS in the Middle East but he has not

con nuously developed

others. He has backed away

commi ed to deploying a force of that size.

nuclear weapons and carried out numerous

ISLAM AND MUSLIMS-

cyber a ack around the world. The US policy has been to slap North Korea

In December day a er a

with sanc ons, support

husband-wife killed 14

South Korea and pressure

people at a holiday party in

China to force North Korea

San Bernardino, Calif, US

to change its behaviour. As

President Donald Trump

China has great influence

proposed a total and

over North Korea, Mr

complete ban on the entry

Donald Trump said he

of all Muslims into the US

would pressure China to

un l authori es find out

c r a c k d o w n o n

w h at i s go i n g o n . T h e

development of nuclear

proposal proved popular

weapons by North Korea

with many GOP primary

and has called North Korea

voters but sparked intense

supreme leader Kim Jong

cri cism from Democrats

Un a maniac. North Korea

and some Republican

state media by a

leaders who said this would

propaganda website has

be uncons tu onal and

put in place to protect the country. He has sugges ng some

impossible to enforce. The

flexibility since backed off the complete ban. Trump is crystal

US President said the

clear for this and looking tough and vigilant. Trup has banned

threats posed by Islamic

entrants from terror states and terror na ons and would

extremists are very

engage in extreme ve ng of Muslim seeking to come to the

dangerous and that stark

US from other countries.

new measures that must be

labeled Mr. Trump a “wise poli cian” as he has said that he would directly talks with Mr. Kim.

STOCK MARKET

Trump has issued some official orders on H1-B visas, against the IT companies the major source of employment and to earn revenues and contribu on to Indian economy. As the IT companies

Effect on

INDIA

Indian professionals to US for severe interna onal projects. The president and representa ves also introduced legisla on in the US parliament for doubling the minimum payouts of H1-B visa holders to $130,000.

Despite the headwinds, Indian IT companies have not seen a nega ve impact. The latest memo of US on H1-B visas issue is not the reason to create a significant impact in the Indian IT industry as they have started applying for visas for higher-level specialised professionals. The H1-B visa stoppage is not a big issue, it's just the visa

processing program that is gone. The USCIS issues around 65,000 H1-B visas in general category and another 20,000 for the applicant having higher educa on from US universi es in the field of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathema cs). This H1-B visa stoppage guideline may have li le impact on IT outsourcing firms like TCS, Wipro, Infosys and American firms like Cognizant, IBM, Microso and Accenture. The problem is not limited to the IT industry alone but the US FDA's inspec ons of Indian pharma facili es are becoming increasingly tough.

07

Experts are not seeing too many problems in case of pharma too. The trump administra on is likely to focus on procedural issues like H1-B visa to force cu ng import duty and thus bring down this surplus.

We can say the companies which may come under pressure are auto component companies like Rico Auto that generate a large income from the US market and includes Global auto majors like Tata Motors that generate good revenue from the US but do not have a manufacturing base there.

The US does not have a well-versed workforce in the gems and jewellery space and large tex le produc on is not prac cal because of high labour costs.

So the tex le companies which earn decent revenue from the US are reasonably safe. The leather exporters also will not face much trouble as India has the largest livestock and it is largely present in mid-to-low value exports.

Price patterns

STOCK MARKET

P

rice atterns

1.Old trendthe trend that the stock maintains the posi on in which it starts to form the price pa ern.

Consolida on zonea constrained area defined by the set support and resistance levels where the trend is not defined or channelling.

Breakout point-

P

rice pa erns are recognizable configura on of price movements that are iden fied using a series of trend lines and curves.

Transi ons between rising and falling trends are signalled by price pa erns.

Price pa erns are used by technical analysts to examine current price movements and predict future market movements for a par cular trading instrument. It is an unauthorised and extremely valuable tool in any stocktrading arsenal. Price pa erns are visual representa ons of market psychology. It represents the traders when they need to take a moment and catch their breath and regroup and when they are ready to get moving again.

All the price pa erns are made up of the following four pieces-

this is the point where the stock breaks the consolida on zone.

New trendthe trend the stock enters coming out of the consolida on zone.

Price pa erns are divided into four categories: Reversal Pa erns, Con nua on Pa erns, trendlines and bo om-lines and Reversal Pa erns and Con nua on Pa erns are considered major categories.

Reversal pa erns indicate that the new trend is going to reverse direc ons and move in the opposite direc on that the old trend was moving.

Con nua on pa erns indicate that the new trend is going to con nue in the same direc on that the old trend was moving.

08

STOCK MARKET

Trendlines indicate the area of support and resistance on a price chart.

Bo om line indicate the price take break and Reversal pa erns- Head and Shoulders, Double Tops and Double Bo oms Con nua on pa erns- Pennants, Flags and Wedges.

This edi on has acknowledged the first major category of price pa ern in broadway:-

REVERSAL PATTERNS:This is the first major category of the price pa erns as stated above in the introduc on part, by the term reversal we can define that it is a diagramma c representa on formed such a way in a upside down manner due to the fluctua on occurring in the prices during the trading period. In other words a price pa ern that signals a change in the prevailing trend is known as a reversal pa ern.

These pa erns signify periods where either the bulls or the bears have run out of steam. The established trend will pause and then head in a new direc on as new energy emerges from the other side (bull or bear).

When price reverses a er a pause, the price pa ern is known as a reversal pa ern.

Reversal pa erns comprises of 2 main pa erns broadly acknowledged below:-

Head and Shoulders This is one of the most popular and reliable chart pa erns in technical analysis. Head and shoulders is a reversal chart pa ern that when formed, signals that the security is likely to move against the previous trend. As you can see in the given figure, there are two versions of the head and shoulders chart pa ern. Head and shoulders top (shown on the le ) is a chart pa ern that is formed at the high of an upward movement and signals that the upward trend is about to end. Head and shoulders bo om, also known as inverse head and shoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but is used to signal a reversal in a downtrend.

For ex:- this chart is represen ng both head and shoulders pa erns are similar in that there are four main parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline.

Also, each individual head and shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. in the head and shoulders top image shown on the le side, the le shoulder is made up of a high followed by a low. In this pa ern, the neckline is a level of support or resistance. Remember that an upward trend is a period of successive rising highs and rising lows. The head and shoulders chart pa ern, therefore, illustrates a weakening in a trend by showing the deteriora on in the successive movements of the highs and lows.

Double Tops and Bottoms This is another category of reversal price pa ern here that signals a trend reversal here it is considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used. These pa erns are represented a er a sustained trend and signal to char sts that the trend is about to reverse. The pa ern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice and is unable to break through. This pa ern is o en used to signal intermediate and long-term trend reversals. This category of Double tops and bo oms gives signal areas where the market has made two unsuccessful a empts to break through a support or resistance level. In the case of a double top, which o en looks like the le er "M," an ini al push up to a resistance level is followed by a second failed a empt, resul ng in a trend reversal. A double bo om, on the other hand, looks like the le er "W" and occurs when price tries to push through a support level, is denied, and makes a second unsuccessful a empt to breach the support level as shown in the figure below.

In the case of the double top pa ern in Figure, the price movement has twice tried to move above a certain price level. A er two unsuccessful a empts at pushing the price higher, the trend reverses and the price heads lower. In the case of a double bo om (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower twice, but has found support each me. A er the second bounce off of the support, the security enters a new trend and heads upward.

09

STOCK MARKET

10

IPOs

catch investors' eye, raise Rs 811 crore in Financial Year 2017

According to a report, In 2014-15, 37 firms made debut on the SME pla orm and raised Rs 271 crore. The companies were listed on the small and medium enterprise pla orms of BSE and NSE. IPO or an Ini al Public Offering is an excellent source of income to a company that helps in its expansion. The complete process of filing and lis ng of an IPO is governed by rules and regula ons and it is important for an investor to be aware of the same.

A total of 80 companies got listed with ini al public offers (IPOs) worth Rs 811 crore in the last fiscal as compared to 46 firms which Many of the Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) raised a staggering Rs

tapped the IPO route to garner Rs 304 crore in

811 crore through ini al public offerings in 2016-17, more than two-fold

2015-16.

jump from the preceding fiscal.The huge fund-raising can be a ributed to

In 2014-15, 37 firms made debut on the SME

reforms and ini a ves taken by the government to encourage the SME

pla orm and raised Rs 271 crore. These

sector.Funds raised through the issue were used for business expansion

companies are listed on the small and

plans, working capital requirements and other general corporate purposes.

medium enterprise pla orms of BSE and NSE.

STOCK MARKET

Most of the listed SMEs have added value to shareholders,Geographically, Gujarat has proved its dominanc e in the SME lis ng by contribu ng 33 firms on SME bourses which is the maximum, followed by Maharashtra (15), Rajasthan (10), West Bengal (4) and Delhi (3).

Further, average issue size also increased during the past fiscal to Rs 10 crore as compared to Rs 7 crore each for the preceding two financial years.

Besides, ins tu onal investors including banks and mutual funds have started showing interest in the SME's public offers.

Bohra Industries, Momai Apparels, Agro Phos India, Maheswari Logis cs and Nandini Crea on are some of the companies that received par cipa on from ins tu onal investors.

Governance structures, improved credit ra ng, companies are listed on the small and medium

reduced finance cost, easy finances and branding are

enterprise pla orms of BSE and NSE.

some of key benefits for lis ng on the SME pla orm.

SME capital market is witnessing par cipa on

Besides valua on has helped listed SMEs to achieve

from wider class of investors and the trend is

speedy growth in systema c manner at early stage of

expected to con nue. Even ins tu onal

their respec ve business life cycle, The companies

investors have started showing interest in SME

which got listed in the past fiscal are from sectors such

inves ng and the market looks up to them with

as finance; media and entertainment; real estate and

expecta on.

i n f ra st r u c t u re ; m a n u fa c t u r i n g ; a g r i c u l t u re ; aquaculture; food and processing; and IT and ITenabled service.

11

STOCK MARKET

BSE and NSE had launched SME pla orms in March 2012, becoming the only two bourses to offer such a segment in the

12

India's Top Ten IPOs from last five years since 2015:-

country. Since then, several companies have got listed on them and some have even shi ed to the main-board. The pla orm provides opportunity to SME entrepreneurs to raise equity capital for growth and expansion. It also provides immense

TOP 10 IPO

1.COAL INDIA (2010) 2.JAYPEE INFRATECH (2010) 3.SKS MICROFINANCE (2010) 4.DB REALTY (2010) 5.MOIL (2010) 6.PRESTIGE ESTATES PROJECTS (2010) 7.L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS (2011) 8.BHARTI INFRATEL (2012) 9.INTERGLOBE AVIATION (2015)

opportunity for investors to iden fy and invest in good SMEs at an early stage.An Ini al Public Offering is a securi es transac on where a company's shares are offered for public sale for the first me. This move changes the status of the company from being a private firm to a publicly traded firm.

Investors, at mes find it hard to invest in a hot IPO due to many reasons and one of it being the lack of needed informa on about the upcoming IPOs. To make a successful investment, it is important to keep the track of the upcoming IPO and the other aspects of the company lis ng the Ini al Public Offering.

10.COFFEE DAY ENTERPRISES (2015)

STOCK MARKET

India's Recent top 10 IPOs ISSUE PRICE

Majes c Research Services& Solu ons Ltd

LIST PRICE

LTP

CHG%

12.75

140

311

2339.22

Dhabriya Polywood Ltd

15

16.5

169.35

1029.00

Ashapura In mates Fashion Ltd

40

48.05

405.1

912.75

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Ltd

14

14.3

130

828.57S

RG Housing Finance Ltd

20

20.3

168.1

740.50O

ceanaa Biotek industries Ltd

10

9.75

60

500.00

Vishal Fabrics Ltd

45

45.2

259.45

476.56

A shay Ltd

16

17.75

79.55

397.19

Captain Polyplast Ltd

30

33

138.35

361.17

40

41

176.05

340.13

RCI Industries & Technologies Ltd

LIST PRICE

OFFER PRICE

LTP

RETURNS OF IPO's

COMPANY NAME

VOLUME (NOS.)

COMPANY NAME

OFFER DATE

DRA Consultants

13-Oct-2016

12.00

10.00

42.80

10,000.00

328.00

Zeal Aqua

07-Jul-2016

133.00

130.00

395.00

3,000.00

203.85

Aditya Consumer

17-Oct-2016

15.70

15.00

45.55

16,000.00

203.67

NINtec Systems

18-Apr-2016

11.70

10.00

28.10

20,000.00

181.00

Majes c Researc

14-Dec-2016

140.00

114.00

311.00

39,600.00

172.81

Commerl. Synbags

14-Jul-2016

28.80

24.00

60.00

3,000.00

150.00

Avenue Super.

21-Mar-2017

604.40

299.00

731.65

757,691.00

144.70

RBL Bank

31-Aug-2016

273.70

225.00

550.30

554,856.00

144.58

Quess Corp

12-Jul-2016

499.00

317.00

748.85

7,624.00

136.23

Advance Syntex

12-Jul-2016

13.25

12.00

28.25

34,500.00

135.42

RETURNS%

13

STOCK MARKET

14

IMPACT OVER THE MARKET WHEN SUPREME COURT

Ban BS3 modules from 1st april

I

ndia is again in line to curse

Automobile dealers asked specifically to

in large-scale losses and even closure of

itself with the amendment of

the vehicle owners that if the inventories

many retail points”.

a n o t h e r n ew p o l i c y a e r

(Bharat Stage 3 (BS3)) vehicles worth Rs

It was also reported that an urgent

demone za on and telecom. But this

12,000 crore remain unsold, then they

communique was sent regarding the

me it's neither for Reliance Jio SIM

have to revoke them to their par cular

explosion of the vehicles to the auto

nor for cash from ATMs or banks, but

owned ventures situa on arises due to

i n d u st r y b o d y S o c i e t y o f I n d i a n

for bikes and scooters. However, the

the permission ll now not granted by

Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) as

experience of the former two has

the supreme court which is the major

well as to Tata Motors and Ashok

certainly come handy.

reason for the coali on and if green

Leyland, the two manufacturers which

authori es will not permit from April 1.

have a large amount of BS3 inventory

They have to take severe ac ons as

lying in the market by the FADA. “With the new developments that have happened in the Supreme Court and the fact that a ruling to not sell and register BS3 vehicles from April 1 could be one of the outcomes of the legal process, I would urge you to agree on a consensus within Siam on the return of unsold inventory lying with our members,“ FADA president John K Paul said in the le er.

men oned.

Federa on of Automobile Dealers Associa on (FADA) represented retailers expressed that “a refusal to take back the previous-genera on vehicles (an inventory of nearly 9 lakh units) will be catastrophic for their business and result

F

STOCK MARKET

ADA said it has received “numerous

representa ons“from its members on the

issue.“There is a sense of panic and nervousness

among our members,“ the dealer body said, adding that

the dealers.

This caused the illness to many auto companies, manufacturers like Bajaj Auto and Daimler's BharatBenz have broken ranks and are ba ng for sale of only the cleaner and more efficient BS4 vehicles, issue of the BS3 models disclosure threatened ventures. Companies such as Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ashok Leyland, Hero Moto, Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI), TVS as well as Siam are the ones who are in support of sale and registra on of BS3 inventory even a er April 1.

The confusion stems from the fact that, while a 2015 no fica on from the road transport and highways ministry spoke about the mandatory manufacturing of BS4 vehicles from April 2017, it made no men on of whether the sale of BS3 inventory would be allowed.

In October last year, the Supreme Court-mandated Environment Pollu on Control Authority (EPCA) directed vehicle manufacturers that no non BS4 vehicle will be registered a er April 1.

Effects of the commenced policy are as follows:

Ban BS3 modules

the move could have a “disastrous financial impact“ on

This led to huge discounts and offer from automakers to shell out their inventory and move to the least pollu ng vehicles. Long queues were to be seen in auto shops across the country.

This me around as dealers and automakers are in a hurry to clear their over 900,000 units of inventory, offers and discounts are running. The main discounts coming up are from two-wheeler makers who have the highest 6.71 lakh units of inventory. Discounts ranging from 30% to 40% are on, while in some cases there is an op on to buy one get one free. This is something which was never expected.

15

STOCK MARKET

I M PA C T O F

BS-III

Impact of BS-III Ban on Vehicle Makers:-

Impact on Customers Customers have enjoyed the discounts and offers available on the bs3 every module as it was a great opportunity for

The biggest impact of the decision has effected the Manufacturers majorly as they are the pillars of the en re value chain in the automo ve industry and they will have The vehicle makers who started preparing for the BS-IV vehicles in advance may not suffer much losses but those who con manufacturing BS-III

nued

ll the end of

March may have to suffer losses.

Impact on Dealers In most cases auto dealers, must shell out their margins to ease of the inventory. Close to 90% of the inventory was held up here. The manufacturers have supported them with impressive offers that led the dealers to almost escape from any major impact. The two-wheeler dealers were most impacted as the volume of inventory was biggest in this segment, but with discount and offers most of them have been relieved.

each class who can't afford can undoubtedly buy vehicles at lower cost, but it was not some easy as the popula on is more than the vehicles so they have to curse themselves by standing in long queues. The most important part of the value chain and an ostensible beneficiary of the Supreme Court decision on BS-III vehicles. Firstly, this opened a huge opportunity for customers to procure vehicles at massive discounts. Secondly, they will escape from paying the extra cost that the vehicles will incur with the introduc on of BS-IV from April 1, 2017.

16

STOCK MARKET

Impact on Automobile Market in April The BS-III ban will certainly have its bearing on next month's automobile sales. There will not be much impact on sales of passenger vehicles as most of them are already BS-IV compliant. However, two-wheeler retail will be impacted next month due to pre-buying happened in the last two days owing to higher discounts. Commercial Vehicle sales will also see some ght situa on as there will be a major cost impact due to BS-IV implementa on.

A final explana on could be from what regula on can do to upstream innova on, especially in the context of developing economies like India. In a recent paper, now forthcoming in an innova on journal, Research Policy, we draw from historical data in India and show empirically in another context how a 1994 cross-border Azo dye ban from Germany targeted at the focal leather and tex le expor ng firms from India, actually induced a posi ve innova on effect on the upstream suppliers of dyes from the chemical industry in India. Using both in-house R&D and technology transfer mechanisms, Indian chemical dye-makers played a pivotal role in upgrading downstream leather and tex le expor ng firms to using more environment-friendly green dyes.

The import of these research findings cannot be missed for the Indian automobile industry, especially with what might transpire tomorrow given the BS-III ban. First, this was certainly not as unexpected. A BS-III ban was always in the offing, with India star ng to pivot towards the Euro emission norms since 2000. Firms thus had ample me to adjust for such regula ons. Second, a domes c ban such as this might actually be great news for the co-crea on of new emission technologies with the ecosystem of upstream auto-component suppliers in the Indian automobile industry. In fact, one can expect more intense technology transfer partnerships between domes c and foreign firms. Third, this BS-III ban could actually trigger a flurry of environmentally friendly technologies and entrepreneurial experiments in this sector given India's fast growing but fuel-guzzling, emission-spewing automobiles.

Sure, we are s ll far from the widespread adop on of electric cars or biking to our offices, but BS-III norms should go beyond the immediate short-term pains for the industry and augur well in the long-run for aggregate upstream and downstream innova on produc vity of suppliers in India's auto market.

Beyond the immediate considera ons of consumer health, such a ban that the Supreme Court has fallen back on while giving the verdict can thus be great news for the technological upgrada on of the domes c Indian auto industry in the long run.

17

STOCK MARKET

18

HOWBuy & Sell?

D O YO U K N OW W H E N TO

FIND OUT HERE!!! SIGNAL PROVIDER

“DIVERGENCE”

A

ccording to technical terms, Divergence can be defined as the sta s cal way of representa on appears on a bar chart when the price of an asset and an indicator, index or other related asset move in opposite direc ons which occurs in market when the indicator(s) and the price ac on no longer move in synchroniza on.

It can be considered to be posi ve or nega ve. Either direc on is a signal of a major shi in the direc on of the price. Posi ve divergence occurs when the price of a security makes a new low while the indicator starts to climb. Nega ve divergence happens when the price of the security makes a new high, but the indicator fails to do the same and instead closes lower than the previous high.

Types of divergence occurs on the chart :1.

Interpre ng Divergence:- A situa on in which the calcula on of an oscillator results in peaks that are trending lower, while the price ac on of the underlying security is exhibi ng peaks that are making new highs with every price swing, indicates that each new high achieved by the underlying price is ge ng weaker in terms of the factor that is measured by the oscillator. On an appropriate price chart, a display of nega ve divergence will appear.

2.

Misinterpre ng Divergence:- Trading signals derived from divergence that are based on oscillator indicators can be difficult to read, and they are some mes misleading. When the market is in a strong trend in either direc on, oscillators do not func on well. Any signs of divergence during a strong trend would be ambiguous at best. Divergence is best suited for confirming market moves and should be used in conjunc on with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis.

STOCK MARKET

The chart displayed above shows about both bearish and bullish divergences. On the le it can be seen that price has made new highs while the FXS-RSI actually made a corresponding lower high. The opposite happens on the right of the chart. Price declines to new lows while FXS-RSI fails to conďŹ rm those new price lows. This is called a price-momentum divergence. That is, price is making a new extreme for the trend but with a lack of momentum, as shown in this case by FXS-RSI. On the face of it, this looks like an excellent tool to spot trend reversals. However, divergences can extend for quite some me before they get "triggered!

NOTE:- Furtherly divergence includes some indicators applied as a basis for trading, as they can form buy-and-sell signals.

19

STOCK MARKET

20

GST Bill

more posi ve than nega ve for market

G

oods and Services Tax (GST) is a proposed bill of

indirect taxa on in India merging most of the

exis ng taxes into single system of taxa on. The

GST Council and its Chairman- Union Finance Minister of India Arun Jaitley govern the GST. Goods and Services Tax (GST) Act would be a significant step in the reform of indirect taxa on in India. This act will amalgamate several Central and State taxes into a single tax that would mi gate cascading or double taxa on and facilita ng a common na onal market.

The GST Bill will prove to be a game changer for billions of consumer and most important reform in indirect taxa on. Indian This will bring relief all around as it taxa on is a bit complex and there spell a “One-Country-One-Tax” are separate taxes for goods and regime that reduce the cascading services and this necessitates effect of taxes on taxes. This will also division of transac on values eliminate or even reduce the tax into value of goods and evasion and accompanying corrupt services for taxa on. prac ces, increase produc vity, more However, all this is going to be over now. As the Union Cabinet approved four legisla ons that were needed to get the Goods and S e r v i c e s Ta x ( G S T ) i n t r o d u c e d i n Parliament.

employment and transparency.

STOCK MARKET

THE GST LAW IMPLEMENTATION

Common

The Indian economy is emerging as a force in the world

Market

economic order and there is a surge in produc on and

WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN

distribu on of goods and services across the sectors. GST

I N D I A ' S G RO S S D O M EST I C PRODUCT (GDP) BY 1-2%.

PRODUCTS AND TAX SLABS

Ta x e s o n a l l t h e products and services are not yet spelled out.

21

will change this in several waysInstead to integrate all types of taxes, the GST will eliminate the cascading effect of taxes on the final price of the product as well as tax evasion.

It will make the tax liability to be divided between manufacturing and services.

There will be no taxes on taxes and barriers between states will be removed which happens when the goods move state to state.

GST will be levied only at the end user instead of mul ple points like VAT. This means if a product is taxed at 18% then this includes taxes imposed by the centre and the state government. This will help in the development of a common na onal market and will reduce overall taxes that consumers have to pay on products.

However, there are some changes that GST is supposed to bring.

Despites, there will be a cess on demerit goods. Demerit goods stand for all the goods that are considered to be unhealthy or socially undesirable such as tobacco products like cigare es, aerated drinks and luxury cars etc.

Some services that do not fall under GST will remain untaxed; include educa on, healthcare, pilgrimages, public conveniences, distribu on and transmission of electricity and services rendered by the RBI and Government.

Gains for Businesses

This GST structure will simplify tax structure and hassle free the filing tax forms by merchants and transac on costs for manufacturers. The tax filing process is going to be digital and

transparent. The na onal economy is set to benefit at the macro level and it will lead increase compe

veness, job opportuni es and exports.

In certain sectors such as Edible Oil, Tex les, low value footwear where there is currently 5% VAT only and no Excise Duty, the overall tax chargeable will be about 8-9%. Even if the standard GST of around 18% (proposed) is applied, then these products will become more expensive.

The area which will highly influence with this common na onal market is the e-commerce market. The e-commerce

NEW

On 20 March, 2017 the GST Council's

TAX SLABS

proposal has been approved for four different tax slabs- 5%, 12%, 18% and

28% which fall within an overall cap of 40%.

The food grains will remain untaxed and mass consump on products like packaged spices and salts will fall under the 5% tax bracket.

Oil, toothpaste, soaps etc. that were previously taxed above 20%, will be taxed between 12% and 18% post the GST roll out.

White goods including air condi oners, washing machines and refrigerators that were previously taxed at 30%-31% will be taxed at around 28% under the GST.

market is expected to cross the USD100 billion by 2020.

STOCK MARKET

Effect on States

1.

22

Due to GST Special category states Arunachal Pradesh,

Assam, Manipur,Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tripura, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and U arakhand. are going to loose more income because they are mainly agricultural states compared to other states and backward but up to now they have control on all incomes due to special category , But now for the people who earn 10 lakh and above are under the GST scale .(except J&K) . But whereas the other states it is up to 25 lakhs. So central govt

2.

These above men oned states depends upon road tax for mainly expor ng their products right now if they (agricultural products (all) and medicines (himachal pradesh) are exempted from GST it is not profitable compared to previous. Even it is more effect on people if GST percentage is increased even 0.5 %. Because gold have vat of 1%. According to recent mee ng it is up to 4%.

4.

Online shopping going to show more burden for people who are going to buy the products because on online products CST (Central Service Tax) is imposed if it is came from other state. If it is from state then VAT (Value Added tax) is imposed actually vat is less but CST is more it depends on different states.

6.So the main effect is for Maharashtra and Delhi because if the GST percentage is spli ed as 50–50 ra o these get more difference.

Presently same scenario is observed.

directly not men oned special category states but they men oned as Northeastern states. To avoid the internal problems.

3.

External commercial borrowing by SEZ units up to US $ 500 million in a year without any maturity restric on through recognized banking channels. A er implementa on of this it have single tax i.e. GST. So if anyone who want to invest he chooses the availability of vendors and their clusters near to him so it is benefit for states like UP,Maharashtra,Kolkata,Tamilnadu where more number of industries are already available. So there is less op ons for other states.

5.

If u r ge ng a product from Tamilnadu it is 5% CST add on. If it is from Maharashtra 13.5% add on to total price, Telangana 5.5 %, Delhi 14.5%, Bangalore 5.5%. if it is suddenly done 18 % tax burden will be more on people.

Overall, the GST Bill has more advantages instead of disadvantages, which are minor. Hopefully, with GST, the mul ple taxa ons confusion, accumula on of black money and tax evasions will be things of the past.

GST is come with both long-term as well as short- to medium-term benefits. In the medium term, businesses will be able to operate more efficiently, the consumers will enjoy lower prices and tax collec on will be simpler.

RSI INDICATOR

STOCK MARKET

Relative strength index

(RSI) helps to win stock market

R

SI is the momentum indicator developed by technical analyst Welles Wilder men oned RSI in his 1978 book, New concepts is technical Trading systems, which helps in comparing the magnitude of recent gains and losses over a speciďŹ ed me period to measure speed and change of price movements of a security. It is primarily used to a empt to iden fy overbought or oversold condi ons in the trading of an asset.

It provides a rela ve evalua on of the strength of a security's recent price performance, thus making it a momentum indicator. RSI values range from 0 to 100.

Tradi onal interpreta on and use of the RSI is that RSI values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued, and therefore may be primed for a trend reversal or correc ve pullback in price.

Advantages RSI is a very good indicator to refer to conďŹ rma on for any entry in any simple or complex trading system.

For current trading method, it advices well on entries, but opportuni es occur not that o en.

Disadvantages Monitoring is needed, s ll, false signals take place.

Strategy is suggested to be used in combina on with other ones.

23

STOCK MARKET

Calculation 100 RSI = 100 - -------1 + RS RS = Average Gain / Average Loss

Tips on Using the RSI Indicator Think Beyond the Crossovers When the traders enters into the market and begin trading, then RSI and other oscillators, they tend to gravitate to overbought and oversold values. While these are intui ve p o i n t s t o e n t e r i n t h e m a r ke t i n t o retracements, this can be counterproduc ve in strong trending environments. RSI is considered a momentum oscillator, and this means extended trends can keep RSI overbought or oversold for long periods of me.

Watch the Center Line

Here, this below chart shows about a bullish divergence formed in January-March. The bullish divergence formed with Ebay moves to new lows in March and RSI holding above its prior low. RSI reected less downside momentum during the February-March decline. The mid March breakout conďŹ rmed improving momentum. Divergences tend to be more robust when they form a er an overbought or oversold reading.

All oscillators have a center line and more often than not, they become a forgotten backdrop compared to the indicator itself.

RSI is no different with a center line found in the middle of the range at a reading of 50.

Technical traders use the centerline to show shifts in the trend. If RSI is above 50, momentum is considered up and traders can look for opportunities to buy the market. A drop below 50 would indicate the development of a new bearish market trend.

Check Your Parameters RSI like many other oscillators defaulted to a 14 period setting. This means the indicator looks back 14 bars on whatever graph you may be viewing, to create its reading. Even though 14 is the defaulted setting that may not make it the best setting for your trading. Normally short term traders use a smaller period, such as a 7 period RSI, to create more indicator oscillator. While longer term traders may opt for a higher period, such as a 25 period RSI) for a mother indicator line.

A rising centerline crossover indicates about the increasing strength in the market trend and is seen as a bullish signal until the RSI approaches the 70 line the overbought region. A falling centerline crossover is an indication of weakening strength and so long as the value does not drop below 30 in the oversold region of the scale, is considered a bearish signal.

24

STOCK MARKET

Using

THE ADX INDICATOR TO

FIND AND TRADE TRENDS

Introduction:The average direc onal index (ADX), developed by Welles Wilder is an indicator used in technical analysis as an objec ve value for the strength of a trend. ADX is non-direc onal, so it quan fies a trend's strength regardless of whether it is up or down. It is usually plo ed in a chart window along with two lines known as the DMI (Direc onal Movement Indicators). It helps traders choose the strongest trends. It is an oscillator which moves between defined extremes of zero and 100.

This ADX line measure trend strength and a rising ADX mean that the trend is gaining strength, a falling ADX shows a trend that is losing momentum or reversing and a flat ADX shows a sideways range. It is non-direc onal, which means that it does not give any informa on about the direc on of the trend. When the ADX goes up, all it means is that the trend is gaining strength – this can then signal both a b u l l i s h o r b e a r i s h t re n d . W h e n technicians look for pa erns over me to confirm a con nua on or trend reversal, they o en use the average direc onal index as an indicator. To use with commodi es and daily prices, the indicator is also used for stock selec on.

Plus direc onal movement (+DM) and the minus direc onal movement (-DM) to determine the ADX.

There are two forms of stock analysis:

1 2

Fundamental analysis selects stocks based on business performance.

Technical analysis selects stocks based on price movement.

The Above figure shows that the ADX is non direc onal and quan fies the trend strength by rising in both uptrends and downtrends.

25

STOCK MARKET

Advantage ADX is a simple and visual representa on of price strength. If you are not used to analyzing the Highs and the Lows to correctly determine whether you are in a trend or not. Just use the levels to determine if the price is trending or not or if a possible reversal might come. Biggest advantages which come from the fact that it keeps me disciplined.

For example, it stops me from opening a trend con nua on trade if ADX is under 25. As soon as the condi on is met, I can trade, but never before. This keeps me out of false moves and whipsaws and we know we have a lot of those lately. Ok, let's see the ADX in ac on:

Disadvantage It just looks like a mess some mes, but a er a while you get used to it and you realize that is actually an advantage because it shows you that price has no clear direc on.

ADX uses a mathema cal formula to smooth out price move and plot its lines, but in doing so, it lags a bit and sudden moves in price can be reflected late by the ADX. Here , the above ni y 50 index chart gives an overview of the way of representa on of the ADX indicator the working shows average in the par cular trends in market.

Significance of ADX indicator It is used to quan fy trend strength. ADX calcula ons are based on a average price of range expansion over a given period of me. The default se ng is 14 bars, although other me periods can be used. ADX can be used on any trading vehicle such as stocks, mutual funds, exchange funds and futures.

ADX values help traders iden fy the strongest and most profitable trends to trade. The values are also important for dis nguishing between trending and non-trending condi ons.

This genuinely iden fies range condi ons, so a trader won't get stuck trying to trend trade in sideways Price ac on.

It shows when the price has broken out of a range with sufficient strength to use trend trading strategies This also helps in aler ng the trader to changes in trend momentum, so risk managment can be addressed.

ADX INDICATOR

26

STOCK MARKET

41 27

Bad bank is not really bad for NPAs A bad bank is set up to buy the bad loans of a bank with signiďŹ cant nonperforming assets (NPAs) at market price. The banks clear their balance sheet of toxic assets by transferring the bad assets to the bad bank. Shareholders and bondholders are subject to lose money from this solu on and the banks that become insolvent as a process can be recapitalized, na onalized or liquidated.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced mul ple schemes To solve the problem of bad loans in India: Flexible ReďŹ nancing of Infrastructure (5/25 scheme), Asset Reconstruc on (ARC), Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR), Asset Quality Review (AQR) and Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets (S4A).

RB

On the banking side, stressed assets now stand at

The banking sector's non-performing assets stood

over 12% of the total loans in the banking system.

at aggregate 6.5 trillion, that is, 8.6 per cent of

Public sector banks, which own almost 70% of

loans, at the end of June 2016. A er adding

banking assets, have a stressed-loan ra o of almost

further 3.5 per cent of restructured loans, 4.5 per

16%. Banks are unwilling to take on fresh risks,

cent of loans which are s ll to be recognised as

which have led to nega ve growth of real credit, the

NPA or restructured assets, and including stressed

lowest in over two decades.

assets, the number comes close to 20 per cent of advances.

STOCK MARKET

Macroeconomic and poli cal viability will be a key considera on in the

Negative impact on economy

implementa on of the bad bank. It is

It will have nega ve impact on

great that the government is eager to

macroeconomic stability. The finance

clean up the NPAs in the banking

minister has commi ed to a fiscally

system and clear the way for higher

balanced budget with a fiscal deficit

growth and employment. If this

target of 3.2% for 2017-18, net market

proposed bad bank would be

borrowing target of Rs3.5 trillion in

approved then it will affect economy

2017-18 and government-debt-to-

in both the posi ve and nega ve ways.

gross domes c product (GDP) target

Positive impact on economyA bad bank was conceptualised to serve two broad purposes: 1. De-risk public sector banks (PSBs) and make them more a rac ve for investors to raise funds, which basically translate to capitalisa on.

2. Focus only on NPAs and stressed assets so PSBs can focus on credit growth.

A bad bank will work be er for banks with a sizeable por on of their advances por olio exposed to unviable projects. A bad bank may not serve its true purpose in the instant case. Individual PSBs have a high probability to resolve issues or recovering their dues, by the me they understand their asset book and clientele be er. The me required for execu on of the bad bank idea would have costly implica ons for assets s t r u g g l i n g t o s t ay a fl o a t . T h e requirement is greater autonomy to banks in the decision-making process by se ng up qualified stressed asset management teams, with targets and incen ves, repor ng to a central regulatory authority.

BI

of 60% by 2023. These commitments do not account for bad bank funding.

The set up of a bad bank puts a strain on government finances in the short term. Achieving commi ed growth targets for fiscal deficit and g o v e r n m e n t- d e b t- t o - G D P a l s o becomes difficult for the finance minister.

Bad banks are bad for the economy because of the debt profile of Indian banks. All the bad loans or nonperforming assets (NPAs) are in government-owned public sector banks and almost all of these are a result of loans being given to privately owned corpora ons and business houses. The private sector will not invest in a bad bank, so if the proposal is approved then the en re burden will fall upon public because the government use public money in order to se le private debts which might have serious consequences for India's debt to GDP ra o. But now the government will be forced to do that if it decides to set up a bad bank which will increase government debt and force them to limit expenditure.

For instance, Vijay Mallya's bad business decisions like buying an IPL team, buying a Formula 1 racing team, private jets, expensive cars and

swimsuit calendars. If a “bad bank” is formed, all of Vijay Mallya's bad loans could be t r a n s fe r r e d t o i t a n d t h e government will have to use public money to right Vijay M a l l ya ' s m i sta ke s . T h i s i s completely unacceptable. Vijay Mallya is just one example – there are hundreds of people like him, many of whom might even bigger spenders than Mallya.

The reputa on factor is making the bad bank funding problem worse. Bankers will be reluctant to sell stressed assets to the bad bank at a substan al haircut. In this case the bad bank has to pay more for acquiring the assets and increasing the funding burden on the government.

The truth is that, if the bad bank is going to be government run, banks will want to get rid of their messy loans the easy way.

Iden fica on of unviable assets and inability to agree on sale price will con nue to be an issue and cause delay the aim should be to cut losses and recover as much as possible. The sooner we understand that, the less fresh capital we need to inject into the system. It is more important to address the root causes so that we don't fill the bucket with poten al bad loans again.

42 28

STOCK MARKET

Supertrend is constructed with two parameters, and the commonly used ones are 10 and 3. The 2nd parameter can be reduced if you want Supertrend to react more rapidly to price changes but it may end up genera ng more false signals, so the default parameters work just fine.

How to use

'Supertrend' indicator to find buying and selling opportunities in market ?

A

'Supertrend' indicator is one of the best indicators from all the other, which can give you precise buy or sell signal in a trending market. This indicator follows trends just like moving averages and MACD (moving average convergence divergence). It is plo ed on prices and their placement indicates the current trend. It is easy to use and gives an accurate reading about an ongoing trend. It is constructed with two parameters, namely period and mul plier. The default values used while construc ng a super indicator are 10 for average true range or trading period and three for its mul plier.

The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the i n d i cato r u s e s AT R to calculate its value.

Calcula on of a standard supertrend indicator is carried out as follows:-

29

Up = (HIGH + LOW) / 2 + Mul plier * ATR Down = (HIGH + LOW) / 2 – Mul plier * ATR

The ATR indicator signals the degree of price vola lity," also acts as a strong support or resistance and it also provides a trailing stop loss for the exis ng trade. In a 'buy' signal, any dip towards the indicator can also be used as a buying opportunity and vice versa, It also suggests that the trend is shi ing from descending mode to ascending mode. Contrary to this, when a 'Supertrend' closes above the price, it generates a sell signal as the colour of the indicator changes into red," "This indicator performs badly in vola le markets, traders need to ensure they have iden fied the underlying trend and use this indicator in tandem with other indicators.

The ATR indicator is most commonly used as vola lity indicator.

Advantage: Simplicity, Easy to detect a signal, Useful in Disadvantage: Not successful in Swing or sideways movement

STOCK MARKET

T

Supertrend Indicator Strategy With Single EMA

Both the indicators are equally good in giving buy/sell signals.

But on close observa on, there are false signals in the charts.

So, it's a great idea to combine the both and eliminate each other's weakness.

The above chart comprises the graphic representa on of the SBI NSE displaying the average trend followed by the SBI in the market by its tool indicator ATR( average true range) which is helping in facilita ng the overview.

his strategy uses EMA in addi on to minimize the false signals in sideways movement. When price closes below both the EMA and Supertrend Indicator, it's a sell. A buy signal is triggered by closing above both the indicators.

As seen in the chart, To compare the performance of Supertrend with “RSI with EMA crossover”, the screenshot below shows Supertrend on a recent Ni y chart in the upper area and RSI and EMA crossover in the bo om area. The Supertrend is able to capture the short Intraday trends perfectly. While an RSI with EMA crossover strategy would not h a v e g i v e n u s a ny s i g n a l s , t h e Supertrend not only is able to capture the uptrends and downtrends properly, but also gives lesser false signals in the sideways trend compared to even EMA c ro s s ove rs . I t ' s n o t to s ay t h at Supertrend is perfect, but even in sideways trends it manages to give lesser or no false signals at mes and that is what makes it a very good choice as an indicator, especially for Intraday trading. As a trader, one has to s ll be aware though, that it can s ll give false signals if the trend is sideways and ignore signals if the trend appears to be sideways. As our “Basics of Technical Analysis” webinar a endees know, Trend Analysis is an important part of any decision-making and in this Supertrend is no excep on.

30

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

ASHOK LEYLAND CASH CALL BUY ASHOKLEY ABOVE 94 TGT 108/ 122 SL 75

Ashok Leyland is a 2nd largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles in India, which includes the 4th largest manufacturer of buses and the 16th largest manufacturer of trucks globally. The company is headquartered in Chennai, India. Their manufacturing footprint is pan-India with two facilities in Prague (Czech Republic) and Ras Al Khaimah (UAE). Ashok Leyland Ltd was incorporated in the year 1948 with the name Ashok Motors. The company is the flagship of the Hinduja Group one of the largest commercial vehicle manufacturers in India.

With a turnover in excess of US $ 2.3 billion (2012-13) and a footprint that extends across 50 countries, we are one of the most fully-integrated manufacturing companies this side of the globe. The company was set up in collaboration with Austin Motor Company England for the assembly of Austin cars. In The year 1949 they commenced production at the factory situated at Ennore south of Madras. Its manufacturing footprint spreads across the globe with 8 plants; including one of Ras Al Khaimah (UAE). Titan the first Indian-made double- decker with 50% indigenous components.

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

4430.9

4113.84

4390.71

4141.91

6.01

TOTAL EXPENSES

3976.62

3669.58

8.37

OPERATING PROFIT

414.09

472.34

-12.33

NET PROFIT

185.88

213.7

-13.02

EQUITY CAPITAL

284.59

284.59

-

TOTAL INCOME

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

3.78

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

23.31

FACE VALUE

( )

1

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

95.0

25,072

13 JUL 2016

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

1.09

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

16.64

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

5.29

[*C] Consolidated

[*S] Standalone

CATEGORY 1.83%

7.71 -243.13

-40.19

VALUES

% CHG

28.08

OTHER INCOME

PARAMETER

SHARE (%)

PROMOTERS BANKS/FIS FIIS INSURANCE MUTUAL FUNDS INDIAN PUBLIC CUSTODIANS OTHER

50.38 4.74 17.89 1.32 3.72 11.33 0.00 10.53

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD- RETURNS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

1 WEEK

7.97%

8.03%

2.13%

2.21%

1 MONTH

0.92%

0.92%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

1.73%

1.85%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

0.57%

0.57%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

-16.85%

-16.80%

16.61%

18.48%

3 YEAR

278.11%

278.33%

31.98%

37.21%

31

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

CASH

32

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

ASHOK LEYLAND CASH CALL BUY ASHOKLEY ABOVE 94 TGT 108/ 122 SL 75

·

INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDER IN WEEKLY CHART SHOWING BUY POSITION CAN TAKE.

·

FALLING WEDGE BREAKOUT IN DAILY CHART INDICATE BULLISH TREND.

·

TRIPPLE BOTTOM PATTERN IN WEEKLY CHART SUPPORT FOR BUYING LEVELS.

CASH CALL BUY ASHOKLEY ABOVE 94 TGT 108/ 122 SL 75

SOBHA LTD CASH CALL BUY SOBHA ABOVE 417 TGT 475/ 520 SL 348 The Sobha developers are one of the largest and only one backward integrated company in the construction arena in the business of construction, development, sale, management & operation of townships, housing projects, commercial premises and other related activities. It was founded in the year 1995 by P N C Menon, he was acclaimed for quality interiors and construction since 1977. Headquarters of the company is situated in Bangalore. The Company obtained an ISO 9001 (1994 series) certification in July of the year 1998.Today Sobha developers are a Rs 10 billion plus company is one of the largest and only backward integrated company in the construction arena. Since its inception Sobha reputation is built on rock solid values, benchmark quality standards, uncompromising business ethos, focused customer centric approach, robust engineering, in-house Research and development and transparency in all spheres of conducting business, which have contributed in making Sobha a preferred real estate brand in both residential and commercial segments. This was emphatically endorsed during its IPO in 2006 when the issue was oversubscribed by 126 times that created history, being the first event of its kind in Indian capital markets.

SOBHA LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

PARAMETER

VALUES

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

12.79

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

30.61

FACE VALUE

( )

10

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

20.00

3,770

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

21 JUL 2016

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

254.01

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

1.54

[*C] Consolidated

0.52

[*S] Standalone

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

SOBHA LTD

SOBHA LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS

PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES

SOBHA LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

542.5

440.3

23.21

PROMOTERS BANKS/FIS

OTHER INCOME

6.9

7.6

-9.21

TOTAL INCOME

549.4

447.9

22.66

TOTAL EXPENSES

443.6

331.4

33.86

OPERATING PROFIT

105.8

116.5

-9.18

NET PROFIT

32.6

37.3

-12.6

EQUITY CAPITAL

96.3

98.1

-

CATEGORY

SHARE (%) 60.24 0.59

FIIS

27.98

INSURANCE

0.06

MUTUAL FUNDS

6.93

INDIAN PUBLIC

2.75

CUSTODIANS

0.00

OTHER

1.46

SOBHA LTD- RETURNS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY 2.21%

1 WEEK

4.29%

4.30%

2.13%

1 MONTH

7.88%

9.12%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

51.54%

51.01%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

36.41%

36.60%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

33.05%

33.20%

16.61%

18.48%

3 YEAR

5.28%

4.73%

31.98%

37.21%

CASH CALL BUY SOBHA ABOVE 417 TGT 475/ 520 SL 348 路

TRIPPLE BOTTOM BREAKOUT IN WEEKLY CHART SHOWING BUY POSITION CAN TAKE..

路

DOUBLE BOTTOM PATERN IN MONTHLY CHART SHOWS UPTREND.

路

ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN IN QUARTERLY CHART.

路

RISING WEDGE PATTERN & HIGHER HIGH HIGHER LOW PATTERN IN MONTHLY CHART. CASH CALL BUY SOBHA ABOVE 417 TGT 475/ 520 SL 348

33

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

PNC INFRATECH LTD CASH CALL BUY PNCINFRA ABOVE 180 TGT 207/ 234 SL 150

Muthoot Finance Ltd was incorporated on March 14, 1997

PNC INFRATECH LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

as a private company with the name The Muthoot Finance Pvt Ltd. The company is headquartered in Kerala. It is one of

PARAMETER

the largest gold company in India. It provides personal and

MARKET CAP

( CR)

business loans secured by gold jewellery, or Gold Loans,

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

12.85

primarily to individuals who possess gold jewellery and are

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

12.70

unable to access formal credit in no time. It also offers loan

FACE VALUE

( )

2

to them, whom credit may not be available at all. They

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

25.00

have started providing collection agency services as well. In

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

the state of Tamil Nadu, the company operates three windmills of 1.25 MW each. The company is started and promoted by M G George Muthoot, George Thomas Muthoot, George Jacob Muthoot and George Alexander

VALUES 4,188

22 SEP 2016 0.31

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

56.97

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

2.87

[*C] Consolidated

[*S] Standalone

Muthoot.

PNC INFRATECH LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS PARTICULARS ( CR)

PNC INFRATECH LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

566.32

738.26

-23.29

PROMOTERS

56.07

OTHER INCOME

12.01

5.39

122.82

BANKS/FIS

0.07

TOTAL INCOME

578.33

743.66

-22.23

FIIS

4.35

TOTAL EXPENSES

421.73

-25.44

INSURANCE

0.00

565.64

MUTUAL FUNDS

21.76

OPERATING PROFIT

156.6

178.01

-12.03

INDIAN PUBLIC

2.92

NET PROFIT

64.61

38.66

67.12

CUSTODIANS

0.00

EQUITY CAPITAL

51.31

51.31

-

OTHER

14.83

NET SALES

CATEGORY

SHARE (%)

PNC INFRATECH LTD - RETURNS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

1 WEEK

19.29%

20.15%

2.13%

2.21%

1 MONTH

41.65%

41.35%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

52.86%

52.35%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

33.10%

33.01%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

56.52%

57.31%

16.61%

18.48%

NA

NA

31.98%

37.21%

3 YEAR

34

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

PNC INFRATECH LTD CASH CALL BUY PNCINFRA ABOVE 180 TGT 207/ 234 SL 150

路

HALF YEARLY PSAR SUPPORT BUY POSITION.

路

FLAG PATTERN BREAKOUT IN MONTHLLY CHART.

路

FALLING WEDGE PATTERN BREAKOUT IN WEEKLY CHART.

路

HIGHER HIGH & HIGHER LOW IN WEEKLY CHART.

CASH CALL BUY PNCINFRA ABOVE 180 TGT 207/ 234 SL 150

Price patterns

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD CASH CALL BUY ADANIENT ABOVE 172 TGT 195/ 220 SL 150 The Adani Group is one of India's leading business houses with revenue of over $12 billion.

Founded in 1988, Adani has grown to become a global integrated infrastructure player with primary interests in energy and logistics sectors. The company's segments comprise of: trading power port agro real estate and others. They have diversified interests in power mining, oil and gas explorations natural gas distribution businesses supported by port shipping and trading activities. Their coal mining business involves mining, processing acquisition, exploration and development of mining assets.Their city gas distribution business is undertaken through their wholly owned subsidiary Adani Gas Ltd. They operate the real estate sector through their subsidiary Adani Infrastructure and Developers Pvt Ltd. Adani Enterprises Ltd was incorporated in the year 1993 with the name Adani Exports Ltd. company's growth and vision has always been in sync with the idea of Nation Building. We live in the same communities where we operate and take our responsibility towards contributing to the betterment of the society very seriously.

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

PARAMETER

VALUES

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

2.92

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

51.35

FACE VALUE

( )

1

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

40.00

16,492

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

22 MAR 2016

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

34.76

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

4.31

[*C] Consolidated

0.27

[*S] Standalone

35

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD CASH CALL BUY ADANIENT ABOVE 172 TGT 195/ 220 SL 150

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PNC INFRATECH LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES OTHER INCOME

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

8605.81

7895.43

9

379.17

TOTAL INCOME

205.2

8984.98

TOTAL EXPENSES

8100.63

CATEGORY

84.78

7491.35

7.44

OPERATING PROFIT

936.47

609.28

53.7

NET PROFIT

302.26

170.45

77.33

EQUITY CAPITAL

109.98

109.98

-

PROMOTERS

74.92

BANKS/FIS

2.62

FIIS

10.92

8048.51

SHARE (%)

18.13

INSURANCE

0.00

MUTUAL FUNDS INDIAN PUBLIC CUSTODIANS

2.58

OTHER

1.54

ADANI ENTERPRISES LTD - RESEARCH REPORTS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

3.49%

3.49%

2.13%

2.21%

1 MONTH

41.80%

41.80%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

87.91%

87.44%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

121.82%

122.15%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

80.88%

80.99%

16.61%

18.48%

3 YEAR

-65.39%

-65.33%

31.98%

37.21%

1 WEEK

CASH CALL BUY ADANIENT ABOVE 172 TGT 195/ 220 SL 150

·

STRONG SUPPORT REVERSAL ON DAILY CHART SHOWING BUY POSITION.

·

ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN IN WEEKLY CHART.

·

RSI INDICATOR SHOWING BUY POSITION ON MONTHLY CHART

CASH CALL BUY ADANIENT ABOVE 172 TGT 195/ 220 SL 150

0.22

36

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD CASH CALL BUY EVEREADY ABOVE 320 TGT 368/ 416 SL 272

Eveready Industries is a leading player in Indian dry cell battery market and is engaged in the business of marketing of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) such as dry cell batteries, rechargeable batteries, flashlights, packet tea and general lighting products. The headquarters of the company is situated in Kolkata, West Bengal.

Incorporated in 1934 the company was formerly a subsidiary of Union Carbide Corporation, US and was subsequently taken over by B M Khaitan and the Williamson Magor group of companies. The Company's product portfolio includes Dry cell and rechargeable batteries under the brand names Eveready, Powercell and Uniross; Flashlights and lanterns under the brand names Eveready and Powercell; Packet tea under the brand names Tez, Jaago and Premium Gold; light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs and luminaires under the brand names Eveready and Powercell; devices, such as mobile power banks, rechargeable fans and radio, under the Eveready brand, and small home appliances under the Eveready brand. The Company has completed 100 years of its services and leads the market, in the segment of Dry Cell Batteries and Flashlights with a market share of 46%.

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD- FINANCIAL RESULTS

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

329.39

324.13

1.62

OTHER INCOME

2.2

1.84

19.57

TOTAL INCOME

331.59

325.97

1.72

TOTAL EXPENSES

294.16

286.62

2.63

OPERATING PROFIT

37.42

39.35

-4.9

NET PROFIT

35.19

21.28

65.37

EQUITY CAPITAL

36.34

36.34

-

PARAMETER

VALUES

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

12.73

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

23.84

FACE VALUE

( )

5

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

20.00

2,206

14 JUL 2016

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

0.66

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

33.71

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

9.00

[*C] Consolidated

[*S] Standalone

CATEGORY

SHARE (%)

PROMOTERS

44.05

BANKS/FIS

0.12

FIIS

23.44

INSURANCE

2.41

MUTUAL FUNDS

8.93

INDIAN PUBLIC

13.94

CUSTODIANS OTHER

0.00 OTHER6.90

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD- RETURNS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

4.75%

5.40%

2.13%

2.21%

1 MONTH

21.86%

22.05%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

25.86%

25.73%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

19.04%

19.22%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

18.79%

18.15%

16.61%

18.48%

3 YEAR

453.33%

453.10%

31.98%

37.21%

1 WEEK

37

CASH

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD CASH CALL BUY EVEREADY ABOVE 320 TGT 368/ 416 SL 272

·

FALLING WEDGE PATTERN BREAKOUT ON MONTHLY CHART.

·

ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN IN QUARTERLY CHART SHOWING BULLISH TREND.

·

DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN IN DAILY CHART INDICATE BUY POSITION. CASH CALL BUY EVEREADY ABOVE 320 TGT 368/ 416 SL 272

Cash

RECOMMENDATIONS

STOCK MARKET

38

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

39

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

APOLLO TYRE LTDFUTURE CALL BUY APOLLOTYRE ABOVE 240 TGT 250/260 SL 230

Apollo Tyre Ltd is the India's leading and world's 17th biggest

APOLLO TYRES LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

tyre manufacturing company. They are the first Indian company to launch exclusive branded outlets for truck tyres

PARAMETER

and to introduce radial tyres for the farm category. Company

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*C]

16.41

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*C]

14.79

and one in Netherlands. They are engaged in manufacturing

FACE VALUE

( )

1

automobile tyres and tubes, exclusive tubes plant

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

200.00

commissioned, premier tyres, dual branded truck and bus

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

started their production at Perambra, Kerala and set up second plant at Limba, Gujarat. The company further expand its range and set up further three manufacturing unit in India

radial tyres. They are India's first H-speed rated tubeless

VALUES 12,351

01 AUG 2016 0.83

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

first full-services branded commercial vehicle tyre with the

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*C]

86.99

name Apollo Trust. The company has now planned to launch a

P/B RATIO

( )

[*C]

2.79

Greenfield plant for the manufacturing of radial tyres

[*C] Consolidated

passenger car radial tyres manufacturer and launched India's

[*S] Standalone

manufacturing in Hungary and bias OTR tyres at Limda plant.

APOLLO TYRES LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES

APOLLO TYRES LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

3457.87

2957.72

16.91

OTHER INCOME

37.34

10.46

256.98

TOTAL INCOME

3495.21

2968.18

17.76

TOTAL EXPENSES

2958.55

2448.92

20.81

OPERATING PROFIT

536.67

519.26

3.35

NET PROFIT

295.82

280.39

5.5

50.9

50.91

-

EQUITY CAPITAL

CATEGORY

SHARE (%)

PROMOTERS

-44.15

BANKS/FIS

0.91

FIIS

31.16

INSURANCE

0.00

MUTUAL FUNDS

7.37

INDIAN PUBLIC

7.42

CUSTODIANS

0.00

OTHER

7.02

APOLLO TYRES LTD - RETURNS

PERIOD

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

7.06%

6.94%

2.13%

2.21%

1 MONTH

16.02%

16.01%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

29.97%

29.99%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

14.73%

14.48%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

50.15%

50.26%

16.61%

18.48%

3 YEAR

44.52%

44.58%

31.98%

37.21%

1 WEEK

BSE

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

40

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

APOLLO TYRE LTDFUTURE CALL BUY APOLLOTYRE ABOVE 240 TGT 250/260 SL 230

·

HIGHER HIGH & HIGHER LOWS ON DAILY CHART INDICATE DAILY UPTREND.

·

THE BREAKOUT OF WEEKLY RESISTANCE INDICATE BUY POSITION.

·

REVERSAL ON PSAR IN WEEKLY CHART BASIS SHOWING BUY POSITION.

FUTURE CALL BUY APOLLOTYRE ABOVE 240 TGT 250/260 SL 230

GRANULES INDIA FUTURE CALL BUY GRANULES ABOVE 142 TGT 149/156 SL 135 Granules India Ltd is a Hyderabad based pharmaceutical manufacturing company. Over the 50 countries including US,

GRANULES INDIA LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

Europe, Mexico and Hongkong, the company distributes its manufactured tablets, Pharmaceutical formulation Intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The

PARAMETER

VALUES

company manufactures several off-patent drugs like

MARKET CAP

( CR)

Ibuprofen, Metformin, Paracetamol and Guaifenesin on a

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

6.02

large scale for customers in the regulated and semi-regulated

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

] 25.02

FACE VALUE

( )

1

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

25.00

markets. The company implemented the ongoing project

3,445

taken over from TL to manufacture bulk drugs including folic acid, Salbutamol sulphate, brom pheniramine maleate and direct compression blends of Paracetamol, through the

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

process of granulation. The company had also developed new

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

products including Brom Pheniramine Maleate & Chloro

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

36.44

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

4.13

Pheniramine Maleate and soon develop new bulk drug for the export market. The company has incorporated a wholly owned marketing subsidiary in US to enhance its exposure in the large pharmaceutical market in the world.

[*C] Consolidated

07 FEB 2017 0.41

[*S] Standalone

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

GRANULES INDIA LTD

GRANULES INDIA LTD- SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

GRANULES INDIA LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

359.48

325

10.61

OTHER INCOME

4.27

1.39

207.19

TOTAL INCOME

363.74

326.39

11.44

PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES

TOTAL EXPENSES

283.14

259.64

9.05

80.6

66.74

20.77

NET PROFIT

35.91

28.75

24.9

EQUITY CAPITAL

22.12

20.94

-

OPERATING PROFIT

CATEGORY

SHARE (%)

PROMOTERS

53.45

BANKS/FIS

0.12

FIIS

9.98

INSURANCE

0.00

MUTUAL FUNDS

1.38

INDIAN PUBLIC

28.37

CUSTODIANS

0.00

OTHER

6.64

GRANULES INDIA LTD - RETURNS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

1 WEEK

9.60%

9.64%

2.13%-

2.21%

1 MONTH

9.84%

9.60%

1.77%

2.18%

3 MONTH

30.72%

30.69%

8.07%

8.18%

6 MONTH

20.52%

20.60%

6.59%

7.08%

1 YEAR

14.87%

14.94%

16.61%

18.48%

377.65%

378.12%

31.98%

37.21%

3 YEAR

FUTURE CALL BUY GRANULES ABOVE 142 TGT 149/156 SL 135

·

PSAR BREAKOUT ON MONTHLY CHART INDICATING BULLISH POSITION CAN BE TAKE.

·

RSI INDICATOR ON WEEKLY CHART SHOWING BULLISH TREND FOR BUY POSITION.

·

HEAVY VOLUME SUPPORT ON DAILY CHART.

FUTURE CALL BUY GRANULES ABOVE 142 TGT 149/156 SL 135

41

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

42

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED FUTURE CALL BUY AUROPHARMA ABOVE 650 TGT 695/640 SL 605

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd is a Hyderabad based

AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD- KEY FUNDAMENTALS

Pharmaceutical manufacturing company which is one of the top five manufacturers of semi synthetic penicillins. The company manufactures generic pharmaceuticals and active

PARAMETER

VALUES

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

28.32

retrovirals, cardiovascular products, central nervous system

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

22.06

products, gastroenterologicals, and anti-allergics. The

FACE VALUE

( )

1

company exports these products over 125 countries across

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

125.00

pharmaceutical ingredients. The company works in six major therapeutic/product areas: antibiotics, anti-

the globe. Aurobindo Pharma has identified international

36,598

24 NOV 2016

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

operations also, catering to over 100 countries. The pharma 0.40

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

segments including neurosciences, cardiovascular, anti-

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

130.02

diabetics, anti-retrovirals, cephalosporins and

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

4.80

gastroenterology among others.

[*C] Consolidated

company has also a significant role in key therapeutic

AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES OTHER INCOME

AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

3906.18

3505.6

11.43

7.92

7.54

5.04

3914.1

3513.14

11.41

3011.34

2687.87

12.03

OPERATING PROFIT

902.76

825.27

9.39

NET PROFIT

575.49

542.99

5.99

58.52

58.4

-

TOTAL INCOME TOTAL EXPENSES

EQUITY CAPITAL

[*S] Standalone

CATEGORY

SHARE (%)

PROMOTERS

51.87

BANKS/FIS

0.40

FIIS

20.99

INSURANCE

0.25

MUTUAL FUNDS

12.11

INDIAN PUBLIC

9.74

CUSTODIANS

0.00

OTHER

4.64

AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD - RETURNS

PERIOD

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

1 WEEK

-2.43%

-2.51%

2.55%

2.64%

1 MONTH

-9.19%

-9.41%

2.25%

2.59%

3 MONTH

-11.75%

-11.57%

8.57%

8.61%

6 MONTH

-22.50%

-22.55%

8.07%

8.46%

1 YEAR

-19.45%

-19.55%

15.67%

17.34%

3 YEAR

115.56%

115.45%

32.60%

37.76%

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

43

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD FUTURE CALL BUY AUROPHARMA ABOVE 650 TGT 695/640 SL 605

·

DOUBLE BOTTOM ON DAILY CHART INDICATE UPTREND.

·

RSI INDICATOR IS SHOWING BULLISH ON DAILY CHART.

·

SUPPORT OF 620 ON WEEKLY CHART INDICATE BULLISH REVERSAL.

FUTURE CALL BUY AUROPHARMA ABOVE 650 TGT 695/640 SL 605

TECH MAHINDRA FUTURE CALL BUY TECHM ABOVE 450 TGT 480/510 SL 420 Tech Mahindra Ltd is India's sixth largest software exporter

TECH MAHINDRA LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

and the second largest solution provider to the global telecom industry. The Pune-based multination company provide information technology (IT), networking technology

PARAMETER

VALUES

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

33.16

Network Private Limited to enhance its offerings in the

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

13.04

security solutions and services domain that develops next-

FACE VALUE

( )

5

generation, carrier-grade integrated network security

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

120.00

solutions and business process outsourcing (BPO) to the telecommunications industry. The company acquired iPolicy

solutions for enterprise and service providers and it also

42,120

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

28 JUL 2016

launched the Tech Mahindra Foundation to address the need DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

expanded its relationship with Oracle and entered into a

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

158.18

partnership with Veracode. It focus area is to create

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

2.73

sustainable value growth through innovative solutions and

[*C] Consolidated

of the underprivileged in our society. The company has

unique partnerships and wants to be the leading global software solutions provider to the telecom industry.

2.72

[*S] Standalone

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

TECH MAHINDRA LTD

TECH MAHINDRA LTD - SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

TECH MAHINDRA LTD- FINANCIAL RESULTS PARTICULARS ( CR) NET SALES

DEC 2016

DEC 2015

% CHG

7557.5

6701.14

12.78

PROMOTERS BANKS/FIS

OTHER INCOME

155.18

61.89

50.74

TOTAL INCOME

7712.68

5573.16

14.04

TOTAL EXPENSES

6371.03

1189.87

14.32

OPERATING PROFIT

1341.65

759.59

12.76

NET PROFIT

844.71

36.05

11.21

EQUITY CAPITAL

438.26

435.04

-

CATEGORY

SHARE (%) 36.20 0.46

FIIS

36.69

INSURANCE

5.92

MUTUAL FUNDS

6.75

INDIAN PUBLIC

9.60

CUSTODIANS

0.06

OTHER

4.10

> More on Tech Mahindra Ltd Share Holding Pattern

TECH MAHINDRA LTD- RETURNS

PERIOD 1 WEEK

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

4.04%

4.63%

2.65%

2.71%

1 MONTH

-8.83%

-8.57%

2.35%

2.66%

3 MONTH

-7.11%

-6.90%

8.68%

8.69%

6 MONTH

1.68%

2.47%

8.18%

8.53%

1 YEAR

-9.17%

-8.83%

15.79%

17.43%

3 YEAR

-4.18%

-3.92%

32.73%

37.85%

FUTURE CALL BUY TECHM ABOVE 450 TGT 480/510 SL 420

·

DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN HAS SEEN ON DAILY CHART INDICATE BULISH POSITION.

·

MACD HAS CROSSED OVER ON WEEKLY CHART SHOWING UPTREND.

·

STOCHASTIC ON MONTHLY CHART INDICATE BUY POSITION.

FUTURE CALL BUY TECHM ABOVE 450 TGT 480/510 SL 420

44

FUTURES

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

45

STOCK MARKET

R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

DCB BANK LTD. FUTURE CALL BUY DCBBANK ABOVE 175 TGT 183/191 SL 168

Development Credit Bank is a private sector scheduled

DCB BANK LTD - KEY FUNDAMENTALS

commercial bank of India. They expended their network in 18 states and 2 union territories with the 228 branches and 442 ATMs in the country. They provide their services to

PARAMETER

VALUES

MARKET CAP

( CR)

EPS - TTM

( )

[*S]

7.00

home loan, loan against gold, commercial vehicle loan and

P/E RATIO

(X)

[*S]

26.14

small business loan. The bank is active in the online and

FACE VALUE

( )

10

digital banking space with DCB on the Go instant mobile

LATEST DIVIDEND

(%)

-

individuals, small and medium businesses, rural banking and mid corporate to loan for individual needs including

banking, SMS banking, telephone banking, Visa money

5,223

-

LATEST DIVIDEND DATE

transfer, and foreign exchange remittance service amongst 0.27

DIVIDEND YIELD

(%)

provided at DCB Bank. They launched mobile banking

BOOK VALUE / SHARE

( )

[*S]

75.44

offering with the both push and pull options and also

P/B RATIO

( )

[*S]

2.43

launched visa funds transfer and celfill offering mobile

[*C] Consolidated

others. Banking for NRIs or Non Resident Indians is also

[*S] Standalone

recharge through ATMs to even non-customers.

DCB BANK LTD - FINANCIAL RESULTS PARTICULARS ( CR)

CASTROL INDIA LTD- SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

MAR 2017

MAR 2016

% CHG

549.05

448.11

22.53

NET SALES OTHER INCOME

63.59

61.45

3.48

TOTAL INCOME

612.64

509.56

20.23

TOTAL EXPENSES

202.44

160.38

26.23

OPERATING PROFIT

410.2

349.18

17.48

NET PROFIT

52.86

69.53

-23.98

285.36

284.44

-

EQUITY CAPITAL

CATEGORY

SHARE (%)

PROMOTERS

16.19 0.75

BANKS/FIS

23.55

FIIS

1.37

INSURANCE MUTUAL FUNDS

14.94

INDIAN PUBLIC

28.79 0.00

CUSTODIANS

14.41

OTHER

DCB BANK LTD- RETURNS

PERIOD 1 WEEK

BSE

NSE

SENSEX

NIFTY

3.74%

3.72%

2.72%

2.79%

1 MONTH

10.11%

9.95%

2.42%

2.73%

3 MONTH

54.43%

54.33%

8.76%

8.77%

6 MONTH

42.91%

42.59%

8.26%

8.61%

1 YEAR

88.95%

88.55%

15.87%

17.51%

3 YEAR

187.06%

186.30%

32.82%

37.95%

MONEY CLASSIC RESEARCH

FUTURES R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S

DCB BANK LTD. FUTURE CALL BUY DCBBANK ABOVE 175 TGT 183/191 SL 168 ·

HIGHER HIGH & HIGHER LOW INDICATE BUY POSITION CAN BE TAKE ON DAILY CHART.

·

STOCHASTIC INDICATOR SUPPORT FOR BUY POSITION CAN TAKE ON WEEKLY CHART.

·

RSI INDICATOR SUPPORT BUY POSITION ON DAILY CHART BASIS.

FUTURE CALL BUY DCBBANK ABOVE 175 TGT 183/191 SL 168

Futures

RECOMMENDATIONS

STOCK MARKET

46

for daily oil pricing policy

Companies delegated the authority

STOCK MARKET

47

Economy will be reinforcing a new amendment in the

OIL PRICING POLICY

T

here are many changes occurred in the oil pricing policy from which the economy will be greatly effected as from the coming month from May 1, petrol and diesel prices will change every day in sync with interna onal rates, much like it h a p p e n s i n m o st a d va n c e d markets.

As per the oil companies State-owned fuel retailers Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), which own more than 95% of nearly the 58,000 petrol pumps in the country, will launch a pilot for daily price revision in five select ci es from May 1 and gradually extend it across the country.

Some main points oil ministry encoded

1.

2.

3.

They have adhered to the policy of noninterference in the market and let a pricing mechanism based on various market dynamics evolve, From poli cal to economic diplomacy, energy sector of India has gained interna onal recogni on by efficient implementa on of ini a ves.

Everyday change in pricing of petroleum products is a recommenda on of experts. The government has nothing to do with it.

A pilot for daily revision of petrol and diesel price will be first implemented in P u d u c h e r r y, V i z a g i n Andhra Pradesh, Udaipur in Rajasthan, Jamshedpur in Jharkhand and Chandigarh.

STOCK MARKET

S

tate fuel retailers currently revise rates on the 1st and 16th of every month based on average interna onal price of fuel in the preceding fortnight and currency exchange rate.

Instead of using fortnightly average, pump rates will reflect daily movement in interna onal oil prices and rupee- US dollar fluctua ons.

Working of the Whole module

It is technically possible to change rates daily but we have to first do a pilot. Once pilot is done and its implica ons studied, we will extend it to other parts of the country.

The pilot is to be launched within one month and no specific date is provided ll now , but according to the sources it was acknowledged that it will be launched from 1st ma

Daily price change will remove the big leaps in rates that need to be effected at the end of the fortnight and consumer will be more aligned to market dynamics.

While petrol price was freed from government control in June 2010, diesel rates were deregulated in October 2014. Technically, oil companies have freedom to revise rates but o en they have been guided by poli cal considera ons.

Rates differ by only a few paise between pumps of the three state fuel retailers. Unbranded petrol at IOC pumps in Delhi costs Rs 66.29 per litre, while the same at BPCL pumps in the city is priced at Rs 66.37 a litre. HPCL pumps sell for Rs 66.48 per litre.

Unbranded diesel at IOC pumps in Delhi costs Rs 55.61, Rs 55.66 at BPCL outlets and Rs 55.69 a litre at HPCL pumps.

With daily changes, which are unlikely to be more than a few paise per litre, the poli cal pressures for not revising rates par cularly when they are to be hiked will go, sources said.

Petrol price was last revised downward by Rs 3.77 a litre on April 1 and diesel rates were cut by Rs 2.91. This was the first revision in two-and-half-months as oil firms did not change prices during assembly elec ons in five states, including U ar Pradesh and Punjab.

The prices of petrol and diesel in a par cular market (city or town) will be the same. Though, there might be marginal difference from pump to pump.

48

STOCK MARKET

THE MOST PREFERRED INDICATOR:

PARABOLIC SAR

T

he Parabolic SAR is a technical indicator that is used to determine the direc on of an asset's momentum and the point in me when this momentum has a higher-thann o r m a l p ro b a b i l i t y o f sw i tc h i n g direc ons. The famous technician and creator of the rela ve strength index, Welles Wilder developed the parabolic SAR and it is as a series of dots placed either above or below an asset's price on a chart.

The most important aspect in parabolic SAR is that the posi oning of the “dots” is used by traders to generate transac on signals depending on where the dot is placed rela ve to the asset's price. A dot placed below the price is deemed to be a bullish signal, causing traders to expect the momentum to remain in the upward direc on.

Conversely, a dot placed above the prices is used to illustrate that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain downward.

The first entry point for the buy occurs when the most recent high price of an issue has been broken, this me SAR is placed at the most recent low price. As the prices of the stock rises, the dots will rise, first slowly and then picking up speed and accelera ng with the trend.

This accelera ng system allows the investor to watch the trend develop and establish itself. The SAR starts to move a li le faster as the trend develops and the dots soon catch up to the price ac on of the issue.

49

STOCK MARKET

The parabolic SAR is a popular indicator that is mainly used by traders to determine the future short-term momentum of a given asset. The indicator was developed by the famous technician known as Welles Wilder and can also easily be applied to a trading strategy, enabling a trader to determine where stop orders should be placed. The calcula on of this indicator is rather complex and goes beyond the scope of how it is prac cally used in trading.

The parabolic SAR indicator is graphically shown on the chart of an asset as a series of dots placed either above or below the price (depending on the asset's momentum). A small dot is placed below the price when the trend of the asset is upward, while a dot is placed above the price when the trend is downward. As you can see from the chart below, transac on signals are generated when the posi on of the dots reverses direc on and is placed on the opposite side of the price as it was earlier.

Given the mechanical proper es of the parabolic SAR, it is no surprise that it is a preferred among traders who develop their own strategies. In trading, it is be er to have several indicators confirm a certain signal than to solely rely on one specific indicator, so most traders will choose to compliment the SAR trading signals by using other indicators such as stochas c, moving averages, candles ck pa erns etc.

Above the chart of crude oil, parabolic SAR indicates with the blue dots. These blue dots can be used in trading as they generate downtrend and uptrend. The downtrend gives sell signal and uptrend gives buy signal. At first the SAR is indica ng a strong downtrend which is giving sell signal then starts uptrend which is giving buy signal. A er some fluctua ons the downtrend starts and con nues which is indica ng the sell signal. At this me traders should not take risk to buy.

50

STOCK MARKET

ANTI L LIQUOR POLICY

51

iquor sales contribute up to 15% to the hotels' overall revenue; but the impact is expected to be higher, as

the restric on will also impact revenue from

the mee ngs, incen ves, conferences and

exhibi ons segment and the room demand

SC's verdict liquor bans in States deno fy highways across country

segment According to the reports, The recent Supreme Court (SC) order banning sale of alcohol within 500 metres of na onal or state highways is expected to severely impact the revenues of the hospitality sector in 12 major ci es, Hundreds of kilometres of na onal and state highways in states like Maharashtra, Himachal, U arakhand, Rajasthan and others have turned into local, municipal or district roads. Apart from the liquor ban sc will also impact room demand of premium hotels across the country. Revenues of premium hotels are likely to be impacted in the range of 25 per cent-30 per cent, Most states have not speciďŹ ed any reason for changing the categories and some have even denied that the step has been taken in view of the Supreme Court verdict.

STOCK MARKET

Y

et, most of the decisions have come in the wake of the April 31 order of the Apex Court, lending it the shape of a na onwide trend.Last week, the Maharashtra government

okayed proposals from three municipal corpora ons to classify highways passing through their areas to city roads, while Himachal Pradesh re-no fied 16 state highways as major district roads (MDR). The West Bengal government declared around 275 km of state highways passing through various municipali es as 'arterial roads'.

The state government did not give any specific reason for the deno fica on which covers stretches along all the 16 state highways. Some road stretches were deno fied in Rajasthan while the Punjab government also deno fied the bypassed stretches of seven state highways and turned them

into a part of the city roads.

In several places people protested a empts to relocate liquor vends in their locali es. The U ar Pradesh government said that it would not allow shops which have to relocated following a Supreme Court order banning sale of liquor along highways to come up near religious places, schools or populated areas. Whereas In Maharashtra, police had to foil a bid by an -liquor ac vists to march towards residence of a minister.

The ac vists alleged that he had played a role in the state government's move to deno fy the highways.

52

I

STOCK MARKET

be higher, as it will also impact the revenue from the mee ngs, incen ves, conferences and exhibi ons (MICE) segment, and

mpact across cities

O

Na onal Capital Region (NCR), Mumbai,

result, just 26 per cent of the city's premium hotels will be aected.

The NCR market covers premium hotels in Delhi, Gurugram and Noida. Delhi cons tutes 69 per cent of the premium segment rooms in the NCR

Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Goa,

region, followed by Gurugram (25 per

Pune, Agra, Jaipur, Ahmedabad,

cent) and Noida (6 per cent). The

B e n ga l u r u a n d Ke ra l a wo u l d b e

hotels lying on NH-8 have been

compelled to stop liquor sales.

Pune is the worst-hit, as 71 per cent of hotels are along the highways that cross the city. These hotels are expected to see severe dip in demand in the nearterm as customers would shi towards other hotels located away from highways.

With most premium hotels in Kolkata located along the NH-12 near the airport, the ban impacts almost 69 per cent of hotels. Agra also witnesses a major impact, as 67 per cent of hotels are located along SH-62. The hotels on the outskirts of Chennai are mostly located along highways. As a result, 48 per cent premium hotels will be hurt by the SC order. In Jaipur, most premium hotels are situated inside the city. As a

majorly impacted due to the ban.

ver 100 (or 27 per cent) of the 384 premium hotels assessed by Crisil in the

Around 25 per cent premium hotels in NCR have been impacted by the March 31 judgment.

Thousands of watering holes, iconic clubs and swanky pubs were le high and dry as authori es went full steam to enforce a Supreme Court order banning liquor sale along highways while states

Business hit across segments Liquor sale alone accounts for 10-30 per cent share of the total food and beverage revenue. This forms about 5 per cent to 15 per cent of overall revenue. But the impact is expected to

the room demand segment.

The judgment is expected to lead to shi of MICE events and we d d i n g s f ro m t h e h o te l s situated along highways to hotels that con nue to serve liquor, Demand for rooms is also expected to witness an impact especially in loca ons that have higher MICE demand and foreign travellers.

All these factors together will have a major impact on revenue for hotels on highways and will also result in decline in proďŹ tability for the players.

The report further notes that hotels within ci es will now pose a major compe on to premium-segment hotels on the highway.

53

STOCK MARKET

Job loss The hospitality industry being a major employment generator, the apex court order will also hit jobs growth in the country. According to India Brand Equity Founda on, the travel and tourism sector in India is es mated to account for 9 per cent of the total employment opportuni es generated in the country in 2016, providing employment to around 38.4 million people during the same year. The number is expected to rise 2 per cent a year to 46.42 million jobs by 2026.

A million jobs are under threat. No ques ons about it.

This figure is coming from all the bars and restaurants and hotels that won't be able to serve alcohol in the foreseeable future. Beyond a point, a lot of these business plans will not be able to last for more than a month or two to carry stuff. Hiring in this industry will soon start downsizing and reducing people from their system.

STRATEGIES TO ESCAPE THE IMPACT Many hotels have been trying to find out ways to escape the ban. Hotels and restaurants are trying various ways to increase the actual distance one would have to traverse to reach their premise. The methods involve changing entrances, adding hardscape/landscapes to increase the distance, etc. Many states are also in the process of deno fying state highways to reduce the impact in ci es.

Everybody is trying to work their way around the order, SC has pushed the hearing on the de-no fica on of highways to beyond the recess to July. I think this gives a window for whatever the state governments need to do to fix the problem. We are all grappling in the dark. If it takes one or two weeks then obviously, there won't be any sacking, but if it carries on further, then job losses are imminent.

Industry experts are in the process of evalua ng the losses and the possible legal course they will take in future. “We have sent a circular to our members who are affected by the ban to disclose and give us accurate figures. In about a week or 10 days we will have accurate figures. We will seek legal remedies, and we are working on it. We don't want to be in a situa on where we go with a half-baked proposal. It has to be well thought out, because it is such a huge issue and affects our industry completely,” said Amitabh Devendra, secretary, the Federa on of Hotel and Restaurant Associa ons of India.

54

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