Controversy on social media apps' ban

Sunday, December 4, 2016 http://dailyasianage.com/news/40085/controversy-on-social-media-apps-ban

Controversy on social media apps' ban M S Siddiqui

Bangladesh Telecom Regulatory Commission is considering ban on Internet based communication technologies Over -The-TOP (OTT) services of communication. This is not a surprise move only in Bangladesh. Human beings primarily don't accept anything new without resistance.

The OTT players do not require any business or technology affiliations with network operators for providing such services.

OTT is the latest technology of communication popular for low cost communications meant for all throughout the world. Telecom companies and government officials usually have negative reaction; due to its dynamic nature it has been witnessing a continuously changing business and technology environment for the past half century.

Government officials give many reasons for ordering these disruptions: safeguarding government authority, reducing public dissidence, fighting terrorism, maintaining national security and protecting local businesses are among others. The government is reasoning real or perceived threats to stability, political power or local economic interests to justify disruptions.

Indeed, disruptions have become increasingly common as a response to domestic circumstances.

Bangladesh government officials have mentioned the "loss" of revenue of the government owned T&T Board as a major reason although it has not been established for profit. It seems presenting a pair of shoes for killing someone's cow.

A number of countries have blocked particular internet applications such as instant messaging and Voice over Internet Protocol calling, turned off mobile telecommunications services or disrupted the entire internet. Those actions separate people from their family, friends and livelihoods, undermine economic growth and threaten social stability by interrupting economic activity.

For example, Pakistan shut down mobile telecommunications services due to government's concern about "Pakistan Day," the country's parade celebrating the 1940 Lahore agreement. All mobile operators were ordered by national authorities to "shutdown mobile communications within a 5km radius of the parade site." This move affected a major hospital, an airport, and commercial areas near Islamabad.

India, Uganda, Algeria, and Iraq, that disrupted internet services in response to concerns over students cheating on examinations during 2015 ". Considering the sensitive nature of the examination for recruiting talented people, internet service providers were asked to shut down all internet-based social media services from 9 am to 1 pm to prevent the misuse of mobile phones during the examinations and security concerns."

According to a recent study by US-based think tank 'Brookings Institution', the total cost of such social media blackouts in Bangladesh was estimated to be around $ 70 million, meaning that the country lost around $ 2.76 million per day.

The study published in October 2016 by the 'Brookings Institution' says that there were total 81 disruptions in 19 countries from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016. This includes 22 in India, 22 in Iraq, 8 in the non-ISIS controlled parts of Syria, 6 in Pakistan, 3 in Turkey and 2 each in Bangladesh, Brazil, North Korea, Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and Vietnam, among other places.

The economic impact of temporary internet shutdowns was enormous according to the study on 81 short-term shutdowns in 19 countries over the past year regarding their duration, scope and the population affected and their estimated impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Based upon this analysis it is understood that between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016 these shutdowns cost at least $2.4 billion in GDP globally. Economic losses include $968 million in India, $465 million in Saudi Arabia, $320 million in Morocco, $209 million in Iraq, $116 million in Brazil, $72 million in the Republic of the Congo, $69 million in Pakistan, $69 million in Bangladesh, $48 million in Syria, $35 million in Turkey, and $20 million in Algeria, among other places.

These are conservative estimates that consider only reductions in economic activity and do not account for tax losses or drops in investor, business and consumer confidence. This is the total economic impact of internet disruptions, both in terms of number of days and total GDP lost.

Overall, these disruptions cost those countries a total of at least $2.4 billion over the past year.

This estimation considered the disruptions of specific apps and services, mobile internet,

broadband internet, disruptions of specific apps and services for voice communications.

These disruptions lasted 753 days in total in those all countries. Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission imposed a 22-day ban on popular social media website and instant messaging applications like Facebook, Viber and WhatsApp from November 18 to December 10 last year and also interrupted the internet for 25 days and lifted the ban three days later.

The authorities, on December 13, again blocked three other similar platforms Twitter, Skype and Imo for three days. The national loss was $69,178,309. During the blackouts last year, it was reported that the country's mobile operators were losing around Tk 15 million each day as their revenue earnings from data services dropped by almost 30 percent. More surprisingly, as per the BTRC figures, the total number of mobile internet users in the country dropped to 52.3 million from October 2015 to November 2015.

It is important to point out that this analysis only looked at the economic impact on GDP. It doesn't include estimates for lost tax revenues associated with blocked digital access, impact on worker productivity, barriers to business expansion connected with these shutdowns, or the loss of investors, consumers and business confidence resulting from such disruptions. As such, the $2.4 billion figure of global loss is a conservative estimate that likely understates the actual economic damage.

This is not a surprise proposal of BTRC in Bangladesh as government officials in many countries around the world seem increasingly comfortable in blocking access to online services and apps, despite the massive economic and social damage that internet service disruptions bring to their countries.

The political leadership also sometimes conceives the idea of public security or political disruption. They fail to realize the shutting down of access to popular services or to the whole internet - even for a short period of time - interrupts economic growth, puts lives in jeopardy, separates people from friends and family, and erodes confidence in the governments that take such drastic and ill-advised steps.

A report by "The Future of Voice", the overall global telecom voice revenues (including T&T type fixed subscriptions) will decline from $970.4 billion in 2012 to $799.6 billion by 2020, at a CAGR of 2.4%. Also, as a result of VoIP by 2020 the telecom industry worldwide will see a loss of revenues approximately worth $479billion which accounts for 6.9% of the total revenue from voice.

Another report "Consumer OTT VoIP Outlook: 2013 to 2018"by UK base research organization Ovum, highlights that the OTT VoIP market is growing at a rate of 20 percent. Its application's usage will reach 1.7 trillion minutes by 2018, which translates to $63 billion in lost revenue.

According to this study, as a result of increasing demand of online applications for messaging, by the year 2016, telecom operators will stand to lose revenue worth $54 billion in messaging services.

Bangladesh authority is working to stop illegal VOIP but failed to stop for reason is unknown.

The technology of OTT has reduced the illegal use of VOIP throughout the world including Bangladesh. The present Bangladesh government is promoting "Digital Bangladesh" and fighting against corruption. OTT is an instrument to fight corruption and easy and low cost communication services to the nation.

Any restriction on OTT will make the communication costly and partially isolate the nation from world and promote illegal VOIP call service. (note: the honorable State Minister Tarana Halim said, government has no plan to block OTT).

The writer is a legal economist