Title: Navigating the Challenges of Crafting Climate Change Dissertation Titles
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In particular, as noted in this report and others (e.g., NRC, 2009k), the science needs for improved climate observing systems and improved model projections of future climate change can best be met through collaborations and partnerships at the international scale. These and other examples of research needs for supporting actions to limit climate change are listed in Table 4.4. The challenge of limiting climate change also engages many of the other research themes identified in this chapter. Chapter 6 describes some recent scenario development efforts as well as several key outstanding research needs. Finally, research can help to develop frameworks for decision making that allow these barriers, costs, benefits, co-benefits, and trade-offs to be explicitly evaluated and incorporated into strategies for reducing emissions. Working across areas of research where no unified community has yet been assembled represents an additional challenge, one that requires both careful sampling of views across communities and time to develop mutual understanding. Emerging concerns about how best to respond to climate change also bring to the fore questions about human interactions with the climate system: how human activities drive climate change; how people understand, decide, and act in the climate context; how people are affected by climate change; and how human and social systems might respond. For example, research will be needed to evaluate the overall effectiveness of different technologies, possible unintended consequences of large-scale deployment, and possible tradeoffs and co-benefits with other types of responses. Indeed, available research suggests that, all too often, scientists’ efforts to provide information are of limited practical value because effective decision-support systems are lacking (NRC, 2009g). Large-scale social science data collection efforts, ranging from the census to federally funded surveys such as the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the General Social Survey, and the National Election Studies show the feasibility and value of long-term efforts to collect high-quality social data. It will also require the creation of new institutions to facilitate the needed research at the appropriate scales and in appropriate contact with decision makers. Recommendation 4: The federal climate change research program should work with the international research community and other relevant partners to sup port and develop advanced models and other analytical tools to improve under standing and assist in decision making related to climate change. Climate change impacts are not yet dramatically noticeable in the most populated regions of the United States, and even rapid climate change takes place over decades, making it difficult for people to notice unless they look at historical records (Bostrom and Lashof, 2007; Moser, 2010). Our charge was to provide a concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and its impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding of climate change and the effectiveness of responses to it (see Appendix B ). The recent report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) identified a set of basic principles of effective decision support that are applicable to the climate change arena: “(1) begin with users’ needs; (2) give priority to process over products; (3) link information producers and users; (4) build connec-. A long-range goal of integrated assessment models is to seamlessly connect models of human activity, GHG emissions, and Earth system processes, including the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems and the feedbacks of changes in these systems on climate change. Moreover, the failure to follow through with periodic, comprehensive national climate change assessments weakened the program’s ability to build a consistent and sustainable relationship with stakeholders. Rather than focusing on precise projections of key system variables, integrated assessment models are typically used to compare the relative effectiveness and implications of different policy measures (see Chapter 17 ). Similar difficulties could be in store for “smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will allow households to manage energy use to save money and reduce emissions, but which are often designed mainly for the information needs of utility companies rather than consumers. For example, climate change is sometimes confused with other types of pollution or with other global atmospheric problems (especially the stratospheric ozone “hole,” which some people erroneously think leads to global warming by allowing more solar radiation to enter the atmosphere) (Bostrom et al., 1994; Brechin, 2003; Kempton, 1991). These changes have severely increased the spread of diseases and damage to homes. Research is needed to improve understanding of the climate system and related
human and environmental systems, to maximize the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change, and to avoid unintended consequences for human well-being and the Earth system that sustains us. Science can also support adaptation through research-based development and testing of decision-support strategies and tools designed to connect scientific information with decision making. Direct, long-term monitoring of sea level and related oceanographic properties via tide gauges, ocean altimetry measurements from satellites, and an expanded network of in situ measurements of temperature and salinity through the full depth of the ocean water column are needed to quantify the rate and spatial variability of sea level change and to understand the ocean dynamics that control global and local rates of sea level rise. The major advantage of the continuance of the USGCRP in this coordinating role is that the program already exists and has the legal authority and mandate to engage in a cross-agency research program. When such simplified models are used, however, it is important to ensure that the simplified representations of complex processes are backed up, supported, and verified by more comprehensive models that can simulate the full range of critical processes in both the Earth system and human systems. Heuristic models and exercises have also been developed that engage decision makers, scientists, and others in planning exercises and gaming to explore futures. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. For example, individual and household food choices, the layout of communities, and the design of supply chains all have effects on climate. In the context of climate change, certification systems and standards are sets of rules and procedures that are intended to ensure that sellers of credits are following steps that ensure that CO 2 emissions are actually being reduced (see Chapter 17 ). This should not be a process in which decision makers have undue influence on the conduct of science or scientific conclusions. At the same time, many of the actions taken to limit or adapt to climate change ultimately play out at local and regional scales.
Large-scale social science data collection efforts, ranging from the census to federally funded surveys such as the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the General Social Survey, and the National Election Studies show the feasibility and value of long-term efforts to collect high-quality social data. Studies conducted in the 1970s and 1980s demonstrate the feasibility of data collection efforts that integrate across the engineering and social sciences to better understand and model energy consumption (Black et al., 1985; Cramer et al., 1984; Harris and Blumstein, 1984; Socolow, 1978). Unfortunately, many of the needed observational assets are either underdeveloped or in decline. Observations are also critical for developing, initializing, and testing models of future human and environmental changes, and for monitoring and improving the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change. The act envisions a program that covers the full spectrum of activities from understanding climate change and its interactions with other global changes and stresses through developing and improving responses to these changes. Several of the themes in this chapter represent new or understudied elements of climate change science, while others represent established research programs. Progress in all seven themes is needed (either iteratively or concurrently) because they are synergistic. A wide range of models, tools, and approaches, from quantitative numerical models and analytic techniques to frameworks and processes that engage interdisciplinary research teams and stakeholders, are needed to simulate and assess these interactions. For example, coastal inundation models require better bathymetric data, better data on precipitation rates and stream flows, ways of dealing with storm-driven sediment transport, and the ability to include the effects of built structures on coastal wind stress patterns (see Chapter 7 ). In the context of climate change, certification systems and standards are sets of rules and procedures that are intended to ensure that sellers of credits are following steps that ensure that CO 2 emissions are actually being reduced (see Chapter 17 ). Methods that allow aggregation of data from across a range of regions to develop national-scale understanding will sometimes be necessary, but local and regional vulnerability assessments will also be needed, and these depend on both local and appropriately downscaled information (Braden et al., 2009).The potential exists for greater use of remote sensing to develop indicators of vulnerability to various climate-related hazards and of the socioeconomic drivers of climate change. Climate data records (see NRC, 2004a) are generated by a systematic and ongoing process of climate data integration and reprocessing. Expanded research on decision support would enhance virtually all the other research called for in this report by improving the design and function of systems that seek to make climate science findings useful in adaptive management of the risks of climate change. In addition, a set of fully integrated models capable of analyzing policies that unfold sequentially, while taking account of uncertainty, could inform policy design and processes of societal and political judgment, including judgments of acceptable risk. By design, Jason-2 overlaps with the Jason-1 mission, thus providing the requisite intercalibration period and securing the continuity of highaccuracy satellite altimetry observations. They have also been steadily increasing in detail, sophistication, and complexity, most notably by improving spatial resolution and incorporating representations of atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycling, and other Earth system processes. Integrated assessments which are done through either formal modeling or through informal linkages among relevant disciplines have been used to develop insights into the possible effectiveness and repercussions of specific environmental policy choices (including, but not limited to, climate change policy) and to evaluate the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of both human and natural systems to a variety of environmental stresses. This summary follows the structure of the longer report, which addresses the following topics: Observed changes and their causes; Future climate change, risks and impacts; Future pathways for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development; Adaptation and mitigation. While research on deliberation with analysis has provided a general framework that has proven effective in local and regional issues concerning ecosystem, watershed, and natural resource management, more research is needed to determine how this approach might be employed for national policy decisions or international decision making around climate change (NRC, 1996, 2005a, 2007a, 2008h). An additional and valuable role of
integrated assessment activities is to help decision makers deal with uncertainty. Technology development is directed primarily toward the other three strategies: efficiency, lower carbon intensity, and carbon capture and storage. In addition, growing demands for climate information will require more people with skills and practice in effective communication, science-policy interaction, and activities at the interface between research and decision making. Some of the most consequential climate-relevant decisions and actions are shaped by institutions such as markets, government policies, and international treaties and by public and private organizations. There have been a number of efforts to establish priority-setting criteria for climate-related research (see, e.g., NRC, 2005a, 2009k). With the authoritative science, the technical know-how, the practical support on the ground and experience in mobilizing multilateral support for the fight against climate change and poverty, to ensure that the benefits of action are effective in combating climate change while also reaching those who need them most. LCA has been used to examine the GHG emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other technolo-. The integration of tide gauge and satellite data provides an excellent example of how satellite and surface-based observations are essential complements to one another within an integrated observing system. Institutional design would likely be enhanced by more systematic research to evaluate past and current efforts, compare different institutional approaches for reaching the same goals, and develop and pilot-test new institutional options. The response of human and environmental systems to this spectrum of changes is likewise complex. Designing effective agricultural strategies for limiting and adapting to climate change will require models and analyses that reflect these complicated interactions and that also incorporate the response of farmers and markets not only to production and prices but to policies and institutions (see Themes 3, 4, and 7 below). Many such mechanisms are already in operation, and these constitute natural experiments, but the scientific base for evaluating these experiments and designing effective institutions is limited (see, e.g., Ostrom, 2010; Prakash and Potoski, 2006; Tietenberg, 2002).
The collection also contains theses and dissertations relevant to environmental policy. Our climate change work falls into four main areas: i. Furthermore, progress on several key crosscutting issues, such as maintaining and improving climate-related observational programs, have suffered from a lack of leadership and coordination (e.g., NRC, 2008d). Thus, it is not clear that the USGCRP as presently con-. Much of the training in these areas will presumably need to take place at regional and local scales, but federal leadership and support are essential. In the following sections, the seven integrative, crosscutting research themes identified by the panel are discussed in detail. So-called “boundary organizations” that purposefully link researchers and decision makers provide one model for doing so (see, e.g., Brooke, 2008; Moser and Luers, 2008; Pohl, 2008; Tribbia and Moser, 2008). Scenarios are critical for helping decision makers establish targets or budgets for future GHG emissions and devise plans to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change in the context of changes in other human and environmental systems. Scenario development is an inherently interdisciplinary and integrative activity requiring contributions from many different scientific fields as well as processes that link scientific analysis with decision making. Socioeconomic data are also critical for linking environmental observations with assessments of climate-related risk, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity in human systems. As with other types of observations, long time series are needed to monitor changes in the drivers of climate change and trends in resilience and vulnerability. For example, individuals and organizations are currently far less energy efficient than is technologically feasible or economically optimal (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994; Weber, 2009). Certification systems typically span a product’s entire supply chain, from source materials or activities to end consumer. The recent study Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks (NRC, 2009j) discusses the value and challenges of coordinating the wide range of ground-based weather, climate, and climate-related observing systems to create a more integrated system that could be greater than the sum of its individual parts. New and improved technologies will be needed to meet the challenges of limiting climate change and adapting to its impacts (NRC, 2010a,c). However, as noted in Chapter 7, precise projections are not easy to provide. Identifying and setting research priorities across such a broad and diverse range of scientific activities is much more challenging than priority setting within individual disciplines, which usually share common practices, understandings, and language. LCA also points out the importance of farming practices in shaping agricultural GHG emissions and to the potential for alternative plant inputs, such as cellulose, as a feedstock for liquid fuels. These products may include models and simulations, mapping and visualization products, websites, and applications of techniques for structuring decisions, such as cost-benefit analysis, multiattribute decision analysis, and scenario analysis. There is a natural balance that exists between vegetation and the atmosphere, once a lot of deforestation has taken place then an imbalance is created resulting in more environmental problems. Chapter 13 includes additional discussion on these topics. Climate researchers and research managers will also need training in decision-support and outreach activities needed to shape a decisionrelevant science agenda. These products may include models and simulations, mapping and visualization products, websites, and applications of techniques for structuring decisions, such as cost-benefit analysis, multiattribute decision analysis, and scenario analysis. Third, people commonly use analogies, associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate change, and these simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. Second, the time scale of climate change makes it difficult for most people to observe these changes in their daily lives. However, the success of new urban and building designs will depend on better understanding of how technology design, social and economic considerations, and attractiveness to potential occupants can be brought together in the cultural contexts where the developments will occur. For more detail on how we collect, store and use your information, please read our privacy policy. The USGCRP and other elements of the nation’s climate change science research enterprise will be essential partners in the success of these adaptation efforts. When such simplified models are used, however, it is important to ensure that the simplified representations of complex processes are backed up, supported, and verified by more comprehensive models that can simulate the full range of critical
processes in both the Earth system and human systems. Heuristic models and exercises have also been developed that engage decision makers, scientists, and others in planning exercises and gaming to explore futures. Finally, a research enterprise that includes the development, testing, and implementation of improved risk assessment approaches and decision-support systems will enhance the capacity of decision makers in the coastal zone as well as other sectors to respond effectively to climate change. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. Enhanced integrated assessment capability, including improved representation of diverse elements of the coupled human-environment system in integrated assessment models, promises benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as well as for supporting decision making.
Science that supports effective responses to climate change also will require integration of information across spatial and temporal scales. For example, individual and household food choices, the layout of communities, and the design of supply chains all have effects on climate. As described later in the chapter, a number of domestic and international scientific programs have organized the research community to focus on climate and other regional and global environmental changes. These. Such knowledge underlies the ability to solve focused problems of climate response, such as deciding how to prioritize investments in protecting coastal communities from sea level rise, choosing policies to meet federal or state targets for reducing GHG emissions, and developing better ways to help citizens understand what science can and cannot tell them about potential climatedriven water supply changes. These efforts can be expected to increase intellectual capacity and practical experience, both of which will be useful to both the research community and society at large. However, improving our understanding of the flexibility and efficacy of current institutions and integrating this body of knowledge with existing work on international treaties, national policies, and other governance regimes remains a significant research challenge. Identification of differences in vulnerability across space and time is both a pivotal research issue and a critical way in which scientific research can provide input to decision makers as they make plans to adapt to climate. Changes to the Global Change Research Act or other mechanisms, such as an Executive Order or performance measures, may be appropriate means to implement these changes and strengthen the program’s budget coordination and alignment with identified research priorities Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book. Hence, adaptive capacity can often only be assessed based on assumptions about different factors that might facilitate or constrain response and action (Eakin and Luers, 2006; Engle and Lemos, 2010) or through the use of model projections. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs. The underlying model is simple enough to be used in real time by policy makers to ask “what if” questions that can inform negotiations. As states and other entities adopt policies to limit GHG emissions, sustained and integrated efforts to collect data on environmentally significant consumption will be extremely helpful for monitoring progress and honing programs and policies. For example, widespread adoption of batteries and fuel cells would switch the main source of transportation energy from petroleum to electricity, but this switch will only result in significant GHG emissions reductions if the electricity sector can provide low- and noGHG electricity on a large scale. A coordinated strategy for promoting and integrating energyrelated research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among these disciplines and activities. Finally, to support adaptive risk management and iterative decision making with re-. Regional climate models, which are discussed later in this chapter, are a key tool in this area of research. Any time partners are involved, control must be shared, and the success of the mission depends critically on the performance of all partners. Declassified data from the 1960s have already been used for this purpose with great success (Csatho et al., 1999; Joughin et al., 2002; Stokes et al., 2006). More recently, a large amount of sea ice imagery was released for scientific study (NRC, 2009l). One key element in this research area is the development of more refined metrics and indicators of social change. Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released. For example, understanding and comparing the full effects of various energy technologies or climate policies (including their comparative benefits, costs, risks, and distributional effects) typically requires an integration of climate models with energy and economic models ( Theme 7 ), which in turn are based on fundamental understanding of the climate system ( Theme 1 ) and human systems. As discussed in Chapter 4, these efforts, and those established in the future, will require the climate change science community’s assistance in providing more and better decision-relevant information, as well as scientific research on improved communication and decision-support tools and structures. These decisions would similarly benefit from integrated analyses or linked “end-to-end” models ( Theme 7
) of how policies and other actions influence emissions, how the climate system and related environmental systems will respond to these changes in emissions, and how human and natural systems will be affected by all of these changes all of which again depend critically on observations ( Theme 6 ). Expanded computing resources and human capital are also needed. Continued participation in these international activities will be crucial to an effective climate science enterprise in the United States. An external advisory board would help to ensure that priorities for research are informed by and responsive to the needs of decision makers and other information users, and it could assess and improve the program’s decision-support capabilities A number of climate and climate-related processes have the potential to damage human and environmental systems in the coastal zone, including sea level rise; saltwater intrusion; storm surge and damages from flooding, inundation, and erosion; changes in the number and strength of coastal storms; and overall changes in precipitation amounts and intensity. This should not be a process in which decision makers have undue influence on the conduct of science or scientific conclusions. These and other examples of research needs for supporting actions to limit climate change are listed in Table 4.4. The challenge of limiting climate change also engages many of the other research themes identified in this chapter.
