outlook
The Electric Revolution
From Tesla to Uber and pretty much every automotive manufacturer in between, it seems the smart money is on electric vehicles (EV’s). This is also good news for Gränges, according to Colin Xu, President for Gränges Asia. Text: Antony Riley Photos: gränges and getty images
“ I believe the consumption of aluminium will increase in the future in line with the development of electric vehicles.” Colin Xu, President, Gränges Asia
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outlook
As sustainable transport is increasingly in the spotlight, statements from vehicles manufactures ranging from Volvo to Scania, Toyota to BMW are all coming into line with government, and non-government thinking – the future must be electric. Battery prices are dropping by about 20 percent a year, and automakers have been spending billions to electrify their fleets. The reputed business and financial services company, Bloomberg, reports (2017) that Volkswagen AG is targeting 25 percent of its sales to be electric by 2025 and Toyota Motor Corporation plans to phase out fossil fuels altogether by 2050. Says Colin Xu, President Asia Gränges, “Right now, electric vehicles (EVs) are basically the hottest topic in China, and China is definitely the biggest producer of EVs in the world today.” This is significant, given that China is Gränges most important market, due to both market size and growth potential. Around 50 percent of Gränges’ present sales are to customers in the automotive industry. Over time, by growing with the Chinese automotive market, Gränges has established a strong position in Asia. The internal combustion engine relies
on a number of heat exchangers for cooling the engine, transmission mechanisms and engine oil, air conditioning systems, and in some cases, batteries. More modern vehicles typically contain up to ten different heat exchangers. As a result, and as a world leader and global supplier of heat exchanger materials Gränges plays a vital role in modern car production. “The question – as we move towards EV – is whether heat exchangers will be changed in electric vehicles, if so it will of course impact the demand on material,” says Xu. Essentially the material will need to be light, thinner, stronger and with better corrosion performance. Gränges aluminium solutions do fit
these requirements. However nothing is absolutely certain about exactly how tomorrow’s car, or mobility solution will look. Aside from fully battery driven EVs is the question of ‘the bridging technology’ such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEVs require a dual system, both an internal combustion engine and a small battery. As Xu explains, “you may need a dual thermal management system to deal with the two systems, so in the short term if the PHEVs have
a boom in growth then of course the demand for heat exchanger material will also boom.” Although the future looks encouraging, Xu is cautious, “There are a lot of uncertainties and the technology is still rather vague so we have to be ready for any eventuality.” “On the other hand, if we can follow up on the technology side, I think things will go well. I believe the consumption of aluminium will increase in the future in line with the development of electric vehicles.”
The rise of electric cars In July 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 59.000 units and 56.000 units respectively, increasing 52.6% and 55.2% year on year. By 2030, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will become fully cost competitive with internal combustion engine cars in Europe. Several countries have banned sales
Millions of EVs sold
of petrol and diesel cars by 2040, including France and Britain. Volvo recently announced that all the company’s cars to be electric or hybrid from 2019. Sources: 2015 China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Global EV Outlook 2017, The International Energy Agency (IEA), The Guardian
Sales expected to rise rapidly
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15 Rest of the world Japan
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China USA
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Europe
0 2016
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2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Source: Bloomberg 2017
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