Salt Lake Realtor – October 2016

Salt Lake

REALTOR

®

slrealtors.com

Maga zine October 2016

What New Agents Want to Know p. 14

Home Price Trends p. 20 Boosting Your Business p. 24

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Schedule an appointment by calling 801.240.8600 to tour City Creek designer model homes.

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Saturdays & evenings by appointment

THE REGENT City Creek Living pays 3% BAC

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*Awarded in the form of an Apple gift card

THE TECH, THE KNOWLEDGE, THE PEOPLE At Windermere Commercial Real Estate, we have the cutting-edge technology and support of the largest commercial firms in the industry while still having the personal, boutique feel that we are known for. Our commercial brokers have extensive knowledge on local markets and national trends from retail and office spaces, to industrial buildings and multi-family communities. Whether you’re seeking mentorship from Utah CCIM Excellence Awards recipients or simply want to work with some of the best, our agents have the tools, experience, and drive to help you achieve your commercial real estate career goals.

To search our commercial listings, please visit: www.wincre.com S U G A R H O U S E | U N I O N P A R K | L AY T O N

|

P A R K C I T Y | C O A LV I L L E

For more information, contact Grady Kohler, our Principal Broker, at 801.815.4663

Cover Story

p. 14

What New Agents Want to Know

New real estate agents face a host of challenges in getting started.

Here’s some expert advice from successful Realtors® who also have served as former presidents of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®.

Pictured on the cover: Lady Martinez, left, Coldwell Banker Residential Sugar House; Geoff Calaway, Stonebrook Real Estate; Heather Johnson, RealtyPath LLC; Jared Morgan, Forge Property Management; and Whitney Joseph, Equity Real Estate Solid.

Table of Contents Features 12 RPAC Golf Tournament Raises Nearly $16,000

14 Past Presidents Answer 10

Questions Asked by New Agents

Dave Anderton

20 Watching U.S. Home Price Trends?

They Probably Don’t Apply to You

Jonathan Smoke

24 How AI Can Boost, Not Disrupt, Your Business

Viktor Franz Paul Weber Columns 7 Change of Seasons …

and Then Some!

Cheryl Acker – President’s Message

Departments 8 Happenings 8 In the News 26 Housing Watch 28 Realtor® Connections 28 On the Move

On the Cover: Photo: Dave Anderton Photo left: Dave Anderton

This Magazine is Self-Supporting Salt Lake Realtor® Magazine is self-supporting.

The advertisers in this magazine pay for all production and distribution costs. Help support this magazine by advertising. For advertising rates, please contact Mills Publishing at 801.467.9419.

The paper used in Salt Lake Realtor® Magazine comes from trees in managed timberlands.

These trees are planted and grown specifically to make paper and do not come from parks or wilderness areas. In addition, a portion of this magazine is printed from recycled paper.

Salt Lake

REALTOR slrealtors.com

®

Maga zine

October 2016 volume 76 number 10 The Salt Lake REALTOR® (ISSN 2153 2141) is published monthly by Mills Publishing, located at 772 E. 3300 South, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84106. Periodicals Postage Paid at Salt Lake City, UT. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to: The Salt Lake REALTOR,® 772 E. 3300 South, Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84106-4618.

Join Susan G. Komen Utah for the 4th Annual Pink Tie Ball on Friday, November 11, 2016. Proceeds support breast health programs for underserved women and men, and fund critical breast cancer research.

SecurityNational Mortgage paid for this ad to benefit Susan G. Komen Utah.

Organization names and logos are trademarks of respective owners who do not provide, sponsor, endorse, or have connection with this flyer. SecurityNational Mortgage Company is an Equal Housing Lender NMLS# 3116. SNMC complies with Section 8 of RESPA and does not offer marketing services in exchange for referrals or the expectation of referrals.

Certain energy efficient mortgage programs recognize the value of energy efficient “green� construction. Loan discounts may be available. Not all properties will qualify. Please ask your loan officer for more details on energy efficient mortgage programs. SNMC0916ADV894

The Darla

TOUR OUR NEW COMMUNITIES OPENING ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT!

Richmond American offers Salt Lake area buyers a variety of inspired ranch and two-story floor plans, plus a wealth of ways to personalize. Bring your clients by any of our Sales Centers for a tour today.

SALT LAKE COUNTY ROYAL FARMS IN RIVERTON From the low $400s Approx. 1,950 – 5,550 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

THREE FORKS IN WEST JORDAN From the low $300s Approx. 1,650 – 4,550 sq. ft.

3 to 6 bedrooms

THE MAPLES AT HOMESTEAD IN VINEYARD From the upper $200s Approx. 1,350 – 3,550 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

UTAH COUNTY

TOOELE COUNTY

ANTHEM ACADIA PARK IN HERRIMAN From the upper $200s Approx. 1,500 – 4,200 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

FOX HOLLOW IN SARATOGA SPRINGS From the upper $200s Approx. 1,650 – 4,050 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

PICKET LANE IN STANSBURY PARK From the mid $200s Approx. 1,350 – 4,400 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

ANTHEM ARCHES PARK IN HERRIMAN From the low $300s Approx. 1,500 – 4,200 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

IRONWOOD IN SARATOGA SPRINGS Now selling—from the mid $300s Approx. 1,950 – 5,450 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

ANTHEM YUKON PARK IN HERRIMAN From the upper $300s Approx. 2,250 – 4,950 sq. ft.

3 to 6 bedrooms

NEWMAN RANCH IN LEHI Now selling—from the low $300s Approx. 1,650 – 4,400 sq. ft.

3 to 7 bedrooms

For more information, visit RichmondAmerican.com or call 801-545-5165.

Prices, specifications and availability are subject to change without notice. Square footage is approximate. Actual homes as constructed may not contain the features and layouts depicted and may vary from image(s). Dates and times are subject to change without notice. ©2016 Richmond American Homes, Richmond American Homes of Utah, Inc. (866-400-4131).

Salt Lake

REALTOR

® ®

Maga zine

slrealtors.com slrealtors.com

President Cheryl Acker Utah Key Real Estate

Directors

First Vice President Troy Peterson Equity Real Estate Second Vice President Adam Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s International Treasurer Jared Booth CBC Intermountain Past President Dave Robison goBE Realty CEO Curtis A. Bullock

M. Brock Andersen Berkshire Hathaway J. Scott Colemere Colemere Realty Associates Kimberly Farber-Bowen Equity Real Estate Kevin Larsen Coldwell Banker Residential Mike Morgan Realtypath Jodie Osofsky Select Group Realty Steve A. Perry Realtypath Scott Robbins Coldwell Banker Residential Michael Rowe Berkshire Hathaway Randal Smith Equity Real Estate Matthew Ulrich Ulrich Realtors®

Advertising information may be obtained by calling (801) 467-9419 or by visiting www.millspub.com

Managing Editor Dave Anderton Publisher Mills Publishing, Inc. www.millspub.com President Dan Miller Art Director Jackie Medina Graphic Design Leslie Hanna Ken Magleby Patrick Witmer

Office Administrator Cynthia Bell Snow

Sales Staff Paula Bell Karen Malan Paul Nicholas

Administrative Assistant Ruth Gainey

Office Assistant Jessica Snow

Salt Lake Board: (801) 542-8840 e-mail: dave@saltlakeboard.com Web Site: www.slrealtors.com The Salt Lake Board of REALTORS® is pledged to the letter and spirit of U.S. policy for the achievement of equal housing opportunity throughout the nation. We encourage and support the affirmative advertising and marketing program in which there are no barriers to obtaining housing because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin.

The Salt Lake REALTOR® is the monthly magazine of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. Opinions expressed by writers and persons quoted in articles are their own and do not necessarily reflect positions of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®.

Permission will be granted in most cases, upon written request, to reprint or reproduce articles and photographs in this issue, provided proper credit is given to The Salt Lake REALTOR®, as well as to any writers and photographers whose names appear with the articles and photographs.

While unsolicited original manuscripts and photographs related to the real estate profession are welcome, no payment is made for their use in the publication.

Views and opinions expressed in the editorial and advertising content of the The Salt Lake REALTOR® are not necessarily endorsed by the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®. However, advertisers do make publication of this magazine possible, so consideration of products and services listed is greatly appreciated.

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SALT LAKE BOARD OF REALTORS ® REALTOR® is a registered mark which identifies a professional in real estate who subscribes to a strict Code of Ethics as a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

October 2005

Change of Seasons … and Then Some!

I

love fall. I am just not quite ready for it yet! Fall has been my favorite season with vibrate color changes and the crisp morning air. It is a time to reflect on the past and make plans for the future. Not everyone enjoys the dramatic shifts in the seasons, but we can all use the changing seasons as a way to purge old habits and start fresh. Have you ever thought about the simple facts of “fall” and the process going on with nature?

Seeds are being planted and leaves are being composted as earth prepares for yet another uprising of a beautiful spring. Your actions today are planting seeds for your next season.

Get rid of the old

What old habits or behaviors interfere with your goals? It’s time to get rid of them and focus on making room for new growth and a “change of color” to take place. “Good habits are the key to all success. Bad habits are the unlocked door to failure.” – Og Mandino, author, “The Greatest Salesman in the World.”

Rejuvenate As Realtors®, we often are busy helping many people that we forget about ourselves. Take time for YOU! Begin each season, with some type of getaway that refreshes you physically, emotionally and spiritually. Maybe it’s a long weekend getaway, going to a sporting event, going to the spa or shopping. Do something that you don’t normally do for yourself.

Begin Each Day with Confidence

Many times, usually without even realizing it, our expectations become our realities. When everything around you seems to be falling apart in one way or another, it is easy to give in and to learn to expect the worst. It is easy to complain about the “change of season” but it is just as easy to take a step back and enjoy the beauty that each season brings.

Set Goals

Setting goals will help incorporate new changes into our life. Set goals that will help you reorganize, recommit and refocus on growth both personally and professionally. A good idea can be a fleeting one and it pays to jot them down and then to arrange them in such a way that you can work from them. Writing down ideas can create and maintain vision, in which you can dream big, decide where you want to eventually be, and know the steps it will take to get there.

End Each Day with Gratitude and Thankfulness

If there is a way to find happiness in starting your day, imagine the joy in finding happiness in how you end your day. Being thankful and actively expressing or reminding yourself of that gratitude creates a positive focus within you, which brings positive energy. This positive energy will in turn have an effect on just about every area of your life. Everything can work together to make you a happier, more successful individual.

The changing of seasons is a new beginning, a time for reflection and an opportunity to recreate your life – Enjoy the season with its many colors and possibilities.

Realtors® . . . and then some!

Cheryl Acker 2016 President October 2016 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 7

Happenings

In the News

Image licensed by Ingram Image

Meet the Mayor Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams was the man of the hour at the Realtors® Commercial Alliance “Meet the Mayor” event held on Oct. 5. McAdams focused on the explosive growth of the Salt Lake Valley. According to the U.S. Census, Salt Lake and Utah counties are merging demographically into one large metropolitan area. “Between 2014 and 2015, the two counties each added about the same number of new residents – 14,426 in Salt Lake and 13,671 in Utah — even though Salt Lake County’s population is twice as large,” according to The Salt Lake Tribune. McAdams noted the unique planning challenges facing the county going forward. Pictured: (Front Row) Cheryl Acker, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®; Mayor Ben McAdams; Scott Colemere, director of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®; Al Rickard, All Points Inspections. Back Row: Kyle Christensen, left, chair of the Commercial Alliance; Lisa Kimmel, Founders Title; Jared Booth, director of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®; Sheila Simpson, vice chair of the Commercial Alliance Committee, Jennifer Scott, Founders Title; and Steve Perry, director of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®.

CRS Holds Networking Event

The Salt Lake Chapter of the Council of Residential Specialists held its annual Summer Soiree recently at Tiburon Restaurant in Sandy. The networking event also raised money for the Council’s charity, Family Promise, an organization that helps homeless and low-income families achieve independence. Pictured: Cheryl Acker, left, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®; Matt Dulle, principal broker of RealtyOne Group Signature; Terry Simmons, CRS membership chair; Shauna Madsen, CRS membership chair; and Bob Goodson, account manager United Title Services.

8 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

More Refinancings A drop in mortgage rates recently seduced more home owners looking to lower their monthly payments.

Refinancings led a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent gain in mortgage application volume, which also accounts for home purchases, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.

Refinance applications increased 5 percent from the previous week, as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.62 percent, the lowest average since July.

Meanwhile, applications for home purchases, which are viewed as a leading gauge of future buying activity, dropped just 0.1 percent last week and are down 14 percent from a year ago. The large year-overyear drop is due to mortgage rules that took effect last year, said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

“The mortgage industry is celebrating the one-year anniversary of the TRID/KBYO regulatory implementation date this week,” Fratantoni said. He added that there was a spike in mortgage-application activity just before the new rules took effect, which explained the severity of the decrease in year-over-year volume.

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D.R. Horton provides a wide range of beautiful floor plans from townhomes to luxury homes meticulously crafted with superior design and innovation.

RPAC Golf Tournament Raises Nearly $16,000

N

ot only was there a hole-in-one at the RPAC Golf Tournament (Congratulations Lee Stern, KW Salt Lake), the event raised $15,590 for the Realtors® Political Action Committee, nearly $2,000 more than last year. “We really appreciate everyone supporting the RPAC golf tournament again this year,” said Justin Allen, government affairs director. “It was a great day and we are very pleased with how much we raised.” The Board thanks its sponsors: Praedo, UtahRealEstate. com, Edge Homes, Utah Apartment Association, Woodside Homes, Graystone Mortgage, Homeguard Inspections, Pillar to Post, UAR, Daybreak, Affiliates Advisory Board, Home Warranty of America, Prime Lending, Century 21 Everest, First American Home Buyers Protection Corp., Acclaimed Home Warranty, CityWide Home Loans, America First Credit Union, All Points Inspection, David Weekley Homes, Alpine Home Warranty, and WCR!

12 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

Photos: Dave Anderton, Hayley Miller

October 2016 | Salt Lake Realtor ÂŽ | 13

Past Presidents Answer 10 Questions Asked by New Agents

By Dave Anderton

B

eing a successful real estate agent is a challenge. There’s lots of competition. In fact, there are roughly 23,000 agents in the state of Utah. Yet beyond the competition lies other challenges – gaining the trust of a client to sell a home, marketing a property, and understanding the legal and ethical standards of closing a sale.

Currently, there are more than 100 new agents joining the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® every month. The present surge in new agents is similar to the pre-recession years of 2006 through 2008. Many of these agents have questions. Salt Lake Realtor® magazine asked 10 former presidents of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® common questions new agents often ask. Here’s Dave Robison their advice.

goBE Realty President 2015

Debra Sjoblom Chapman Richards & Associates President 2005

Q: What is a typical day like for a Realtor®?

A: As canned as this answer might sound, no day is typical; and that is quite a statement coming from me after spending nearly 40 years in this business. Last week I was a fireman. There was a new and different fire every day. People were upset about how water shares were being prorated, upset about how a condo special assessment was handled, and then there was the settlement on Wednesday that as of Friday at 5 p.m. had still not recorded. We solve problems, we guide clients, we hold hands and occasionally we sell a house! Be honest, be upfront, do not only your job, but pitch in and help others with their jobs—this is not a 50-50 proposition. Never tell clients what they want to hear, only tell them the truth. They are not hiring you to be their new best friend. They are hiring you to be a professional and to do your job—this will make them your friends. I cannot stress this enough. Agents know exactly how my listings will show and they can show with confidence. Is it difficult to tell someone to scrub? Is it difficult to tell someone to put away half of their collectibles? Is it difficult to tell someone to fine tune their yard? Is it difficult to tell someone they have too much furniture or really ugly furniture? Yes it is, but it is our job! Every day is a new adventure; always try and end your day with more steps forward than backwards.

14 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

Q: How long will it take for me to make a living?

A: It’s super competitive and not easy. The stats don’t paint a fun picture. High turnover is normal, while the average agent makes around $40,000 per year after they have been in the business for 10 years. You could, however, make a living your first year in the business.

That means you usually need to work with a team or someone with lots of business, while being disciplined and treating this as a career. Otherwise, on your own, the stats show most don’t make it past three years.

Jillinda Bowers Coldwell Banker Residential President 2008

Q: How do I select a good broker?

A: The successful agents are influenced dramatically by the company and management that they select.

What that looks like is a broker who provides ongoing training, motivation, and a solid understanding of ethical practices. New agents should be sure to search out someone who is not only concerned about them, but concerned about the profession itself. The best brokers are ones that create both an atmosphere of hard work and fun.

DeAnna Dipo Coldwell Banker Residential President 2011

Q: What’s the best way to market myself?

A: Marketing is key to a successful career in real estate.

There are a million ways to market yourself, but I still believe the most powerful and effective way is belly to belly. Yes that is an old term, but more important than ever. While an online presence is necessary with social media and websites, honing your people skills will get you more business and repeat business for long term success. You just started a business; YOU are the store front marketing to the world. What does your store front say? Everywhere you go and every person you come in contact with is a potential client.

Wearing a name badge, networking in business circles, your children’s sporting events or performances, hobbies and social circles, are all opportunities to connect with a buyer or seller. Get your name and picture out there by making your marketing clear and simple, so the consumer can easily identify you’re a Realtor®. Real estate is a relationship business whether you first connect online, in person, or through your sphere of influence. Sharp genuine people skills will undoubtedly be your best marketing ever.

Gary Cannon Cannon & Company President 2007

Q: What would you do differently now than when you first started?

George Richards Chapman Richards & Associates President 1987

Q: How do I avoid ethical and legal pitfalls?

A: Every new agent should learn the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Code of Ethics. They are very specific and every member of NAR should abide by them. But, they don’t always cover every situation. We are all competitors in the business, but also work together to the benefit of our clients. The client should always come first. The old adage, “treat others as you would want to be treated” always works. Legal pitfalls are always serious and every new agent should continue to take continuing education classes and learn the law. Always stay close to your broker and if a question ever arises call your broker immediately before you proceed. Never practice law without a license. We are always asked questions that cross over to the legal side and I always tell my agents to tell the client that we are their broker/agent, but they need to get their legal advice from their own attorney. This is where a lot of agents get themselves in trouble. Be smart! (continued on page 18)

A: Without hesitation I would look for the brokerage that offered the highest caliber of full-time ethical agents who were doing business for the right reasons.

I wouldn’t focus on how much money I was going to make or what split I was on! I would associate and put myself around as many successful people with balanced lives as I could who focused on gratitude and abundance and not scarcity and greed. I would seek out the best training program that I could find and throw myself into it. I know that years from that point I would have a career that people would respect me for taking care of them and not for the money that I had made while doing business with them.

Image licensed by Ingram Image

October 2016 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 15

Lots That

M VE

You!

a

We have released LOT of Lots this summer.

Check them out at ivoryhomes.com or bring your buyers by one of our models for more info.

• • • •

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From the $840’s 5500 S. Highland Drive, Holladay Gated community in an unbeatable Holladay location 801-821-3641

From the $340’s 7423 S. 5680 W., West Jordan Beautiful mountain views 801-662-0408

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• • • •

• • • •

From the $400’s 3600 W. 12125 S., Riverton Large lots 801-446-1114

From the $270’s 9464 S. Michael Robert Ln., West Jordan Exclusive California Collection floor plans 801-280-9100

from the $280’s 7088 W Harding Drive, West Valley Fantastic location complete with community park 801-282-6298

Randy Eagar Berkshire Hathaway Home Services President 1992

Q: How can I get more business?

Ryan Kirkham Summit Sotheby’s International Realty President 2009

Q: What are the top real estate apps you use in your business?

A: Many of the apps I use are apps that people use in many businesses, but there are some specific to real estate. I’m really grateful for this technology because it has really changed how I do business. The first is eKey, which is the app we use for our Supra key boxes.

If I went back to a brick phone from the early 1990s and it had the capabilities of this app it would be the coolest thing ever. I can’t imagine an agent being in this business and not having a smart phone with this on it. Additionally, I really like the utahrealestate.com app. It’s really nice to have the MLS at my fingerprints.

I also really utilize the filing apps like iCloud, Dropbox and Google Docs. Basically, I have several filing cabinets on my phone and that is something that most people probably take for granted. I don’t. Not too many years ago, I remember having to drive to my office to pull a file out of the filing cabinet. It’s also funny that I used to drive to my office to pick up a fax. I can now receive a scanned document (PDF) on my phone.

Now I can have my clients sign closing documents in DocuSign or DotLoop and they can do it from anywhere in the world, which is absolutely incredible and saves me so much time. I’m a big iPhone fan and was slow to jump on the bandwagon, but I’m amazed by the advancements and developments in real estate technology. Any serious agent needs to have some sort of a smart phone to be successful.

18 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

A: While there are many different prospecting methods, choose the one that interests you and stick with it. You can make a ton of money doing open houses or working your sphere of influence. Choose something you can develop a passion for and then stick to a schedule and do it every day. Never, never give up. Take each “no” as being that much closer to a “yes.” Here is a partial list of activities: Offer home appraisals door-to-door, host an interior decorating seminar with an expert, offer advice to FSBOs, stage an information session for first-time home buyers, compile and distribute a list of preferred local businesses and services, reach out to expired real estate listings, advertise on Facebook and Twitter, send “just listed” and “just sold” e-cards or e-flyers, reconnect with past clients frequently, or sponsor a children’s sports team and introduce yourself to parents at games.

Angie Nelden Coldwell Banker Residential President 2014

Q: Why do I need to join an association?

A: Joining a Realtor® association has many benefits.

As a Realtor® you are a part of a large body that can work together for a common good in our community.

Government advocacy on behalf of the real estate profession takes place at the local, state and national levels. These advocacy efforts fight burdensome government regulations and taxes that stifle the real estate transaction. By joining an association you gain access to the multiple listing service, legal hotline, Supra Key, and forms and contracts. At the association you can take advantage of continuing education, and volunteer on committees that include service in the community, educational events, and networking forums. I have met many fellow Realtors® through the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. Many of them have become great friends. In short, where else could you start your own business and be your own boss for roughly $100 per month? The association is the organization that makes it possible.

REALTOR® Demographics Miriam K. McFadden Miriam K. McFadden Real Estate President 1996

Q: How can I be more professional and successful?

A: Define your own measure of success. Is this your profession or a part-time hobby? If it is a hobby, find another one. A professional puts their client’s interests ahead of their own. A professional is well informed and educated. A professional is punctual, returns calls, and responds to all correspondence. A professional is fair, has integrity and can be trusted.

»» 65% percent of REALTORS® are licensed as sales agents, and 73% of members specialize in residential brokerage. »»The typical REALTOR® is a 53 year old white female homeowner with some college education. »» 62% of all REALTORS® are female, and the median age of all REALTORS® is 58. »» Real estate experience of all REALTORS® (median): 10 years. »» Median tenure at present firm (all REALTORS®): 3 years. »» Most REALTORS® worked 40 hours per week in 2015. »»The median gross income of REALTORS® was $39,200 in 2015, down from $45,800 in 2014. »» Formal education of REALTORS®: Some college: 31% Bachelor’s degree: 30% Graduate degree and above: 12% Associate degree: 13% Some graduate school: 7% High school graduate: 7%

Source: NAR

Image licensed by Ingram Image

Making our team a part of yours

Collaboration is not an option. It’s a promise.

At David Weekley Homes, we love taking care of you and your Clients by: • Encouraging you to register your Clients with us – we promise it will be easy • Paying you complete commissions based on a home’s full sales price, not just the base price • Making you look good by guiding your Clients through the building process and beyond

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See a David Weekley Homes Sales Consultant for details. Prices, plans, dimensions, features, specifications, materials, and availability of homes or communities are subject to change without notice or obligation.

Illustrations are artist’s depictions only and may differ from completed improvements. Copyright © 2016 David Weekley Homes - All Rights Reserved. Salt Lake City, UT (SLCA79343)

October 2016 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 19

© Adobe Stock /Iriana Shiyan

Watching U.S. Home Price Trends?

They Probably Don’t Apply to You Since home values are complex, inherently unique, and highly variable by neighborhood, no reported price metric will beat the insights of local Realtors®.

By Jonathan Smoke

O

nce upon a time, all across this great land, consumers lacked information and insights into the housing market. If you wanted to know how home prices were trending, you had to find an expert local Realtor® or some other real estate pro, and quiz them about market conditions.

Today, we have tons of real estate data at our fingers, thanks to the internet and websites like this one. In fact, maybe we have too much, considering that we’re also being bombarded by

20 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

news stories, blog posts, tweets, and financial talking heads blathering away on TV. The real estate metric that typically attracts the most attention is home prices. No surprise.

After all, a contracted price is the market’s ultimate stamp of value. So if we want to know where the market is going, we should be able to track the prices of homes—just like stocks or new cars or barrels of oil. Right?

Not so fast. News alert: Homes are not like

stocks or new cars or barrels of oil, and data about home sales are not readily available and captured on a timely basis.

Homes are inherently unique—for the most part, they can’t be identically mass-produced.

Even in those huge developments where the homes all look alike, they’ll still have differing physical attributes, including different views of at least what is on either side.

And there’s this: A home’s value is also influenced by who lives in it. Minor differences in paint, wallpaper, and flooring choices over time evolve into radically different styles and improvements that result in differing levels of appeal to others. Some owners take fastidious care of their homes; others, not so much. The age of the kitchen, baths, major appliances, and mechanical systems will all vary—and influence what buyers are willing to pay.

Given the unique nature of homes and how prices are determined through negotiations between buyers and sellers, reports on home prices are, at best, background context.

Conflicting numbers, confused consumers

This month I’ve been seeing more variation than usual in the interpretations of national home price trends.

Last week, the National Association of Realtors® reported that the national median existing-home price in August was up 5.1 percent over the median price last year. NAR breaks down prices in the four major regions of the country, which varied in their increase from 1 percent in the Northeast to 9 percent in the West.

CoreLogic, one of the largest property and home sales data providers in the U.S., reported that home prices were up 6 percent in July through the lens of their repeat sales index. For comparison, NAR reported that the median existing-home sale price in July was up 5 percent over last year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s purchase-only index increased in value by 5.8 percent compared with last year in July. This index tracks only home sales financed by conventional and conforming mortgages, but its July reading was consistent with CoreLogic’s.

Then the last reading we received was from Case-Shiller, which is followed widely in financial markets. The Case-Shiller national index for July, which is actually a three-month average covering May, June, and July, showed that home prices increased 5.1 percent over the same period last year.

It’s time to take a step back.

So what can we conclude from all of these national price metrics? The U.S. housing market in aggregate saw home prices appreciate from 5 percent to 5.8 percent in July. The problem with this, of course, is that there is no such thing as

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a national housing market.

Housing markets are local, very local The two most widely followed indices that make up the Case-Shiller reports sound local, but au contraire. Look closer. They actually cover two collections of large markets known as the 10-city and 20-city composite indices. Financial analysts love to follow them, but since they’re collections of markets, they are not always a good representation of what is happening in aggregate across the U.S. The 20-city index was up 5 percent for the three months ending in July, compared with the same reading in June, which was up 5.1 percent.

The 10-city was up 4.2 percent in July, and down from 4.3 percent in June.

These are the markets in the 10-city index: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, DC. The 20-city adds Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland (OR), Seattle, and Tampa.

So if you don’t live in one of these markets, these composites are not very helpful to you as a consumer!

If you do live in one of these markets, it is much better to scrutinize what Case-Shiller reports on your hometown rather than looking at the composite. Because those other 19 cities? They might be masking your market’s true trend.

For example, the Portland area’s July index was up 12 percent over last year. But the indices covering the Washington and New York metro areas were up only 2 percent.

But even that 12.4 percent reading for Portland

22 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

won’t help a Portland buyer understand how her favorite neighborhood is trending. All of these metrics are aggregates representing enormous areas. And yet real estate is inherently hyperlocal.

OK, follow us here: The Portland metropolitan statistical area (when we economists talk about cities, we’re actually talking about MSAs) covers seven counties across the states of Oregon and Washington. These counties include more than 70 well-populated ZIP codes.

In July, according to realtor.com®-reported data, the median list price across the Portland MSA was up 16 percent over last year. But by ZIP code, list price appreciation varied from up 29 percent in 97211 in Portland to down 9 percent in 98660 in Vancouver, Wash. Depending on where you live in Portland, an increase of 16 percent could be wishful thinking, or it could be way understating the appreciation.

So as it turns out, things haven’t changed that much since the days before the internet, when we had way less info on housing and home price trends. Since home values are complex, inherently unique, and highly variable by neighborhood, no reported price metric will beat the insights of local Realtors® and the other professionals who focus on the attributes that make one home worth more than another. Getting that one-on-one intel is the way you’ll truly get plugged in to the market trends in your neighborhood.

Jonathan Smoke is the chief economist of realtor.com, where he analyzes real estate data and trends to develop market insights for the consumer.

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But as the founder of the Future Real Estate Institute, I take a different approach. I choose constructivism over fear and research over ignorance. That’s why in this second part of the series, I’ll show you both sides of artificial intelligence and how you might profit from it.

Artificial intelligence is commonly defined as a programmatic system mimicking or transcending human intelligence. While artificial intelligence could also be developed by means of genetic engineering, I want to focus on the programmatic approach. I see a huge vacuum of applications of artificial intelligence in real estate, which creates an opportunity for disruptive business cases.

Image licensed by Ingram Image

How AI Can Boost, Not Disrupt, Your Business Rather than worrying about how artificial intelligence might make you obsolete, learn how you can take advantage of this burgeoning technology.

By Viktor Franz Paul Weber

I

n the first part of my “Disrupt or Be Disrupted” series here at REALTOR® Magazine, I introduced innovations such as robotics, sensors, synthetic biology, and 3-D printing and how real estate pros can profit from them. Most often these technologies are quite abstract for people outside of scientific fields. The resulting unawareness, ignorance, or half-knowledge creates grave headlines, sometimes depicting a “Blade Runner”– style dystopia.

24 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

Artificial Intelligence: Not The End There’s a lot of trepidation when it comes to this topic, and not just in real estate. In the United Kingdom alone, more than 30,000 jobs in the legal sector have been made redundant by artificial intelligence applications in the last few years, which is a great example of the magnitude of the disruptive force this technology could have upon future job markets. This is one reason for the negative perception of artificial intelligence.

Another is simply the fear of the unknown. We cannot really forecast what will happen when we develop more powerful applications that might not be controllable by humans.

Since artificial intelligence can optimize many business processes, assist in research, and automate repetitive tasks, it is economically attractive for governments, institutions, and corporate entities to develop such technology.

That’s why it’s vital for brokerages to get in on the game and to develop their own artificial intelligence tools, so they can adapt and create new jobs in order to continue to profit.

Business Opportunities Thanks to the Status Quo Vacuum

There are dominant players in most business sectors, including real estate. Yet, with emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, new players can challenge them. This state is what I call a “status quo vacuum.”

What if you created the startup that finally developed the perfect matching algorithm for clients or the best way to aggregate listing data? Here are some ideas of how innovators in real estate could use AI to change the way business is done.

Seller and Buyer Matching There are already various platforms offering matchmaking algorithms to pair buyers and sellers. Yet, the models lack holistic data aggregation, learning functions, and adequate parameters. We will see eventually a platform (continued on page 30)

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Housing Watch August Home Sales Make a Rebound Despite Low Inventory

H

ome sales in Salt Lake County rebounded in August after a lackluster July. Sales of all housing types climbed to 1,734 units sold, up 6 percent compared to July 2015. The increase is good news and followed July’s double-digit percentage drop off, which was the biggest onemonth decline in sales in 2015 year-over-year.

Sales were up significantly in Davis County. In August, there were 532 closings, up 12 percent from 477 a year earlier.

The median home price in August in Salt Lake County increased to $270,000, up 8 percent from $249,000 in August 2015. Davis County’s median price rose to $255,000, up 10 percent from $231,800 a year ago.

Salt Lake County’s “months supply of inventory” fell below three months in August.

There is only a 2.4-month supply of homes listed for sale. The “months of supply” is the measure of how many months it would take for the

6

3

Salt Lake County Sales (all housing types) Year-Over-Year (Up 6%)

1,641 26 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

1,734

current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. A normal housing market is typically characterized by a five- to six-month supply of housing inventory.

Levels below five months represent a seller’s market. Home buyers gain the advantage when levels start rising above six months.

Nationally, home sales increased less than 1 percent in August compared to a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said recent job growth is not yielding higher home sales. “Healthy labor markets in most the country should be creating a sustained demand for home purchases,” he said. “However, there’s no question that after peaking in June, sales in a majority of the country have inched backwards because inventory isn’t picking up to tame price growth and replace what’s being quickly sold.”

Salt Lake County Median Price (all housing types) Year-Over-Year (Up 8%)

$249,000

$270,000

2 - C OLOR

1 Salt Lake County Days on Market (all housing types) Year-Over-Year (Down 19%)

30

2

37

Salt Lake County

Pending Sales (Up 12%)

1,559

Sales $

5 Davis County $231,800 4 Median Price (all housing types) Year-Over-Year (Up 10%)

$255,000

1,742

Sales

Davis County Sales (all housing types) Year-Over-Year (Down 12%)

532

477

October 2016 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | 27

REALTOR® Connections

On the Move

Sylvester Daniels III

Dave Frederickson

Bill Heiner

Kroger Menzer

Q&A: Dave Frederickson, Bill Heiner, Krozer Menzer Dave Frederickson, Bill Heiner, and Kroger Menzer have been appointed as ombudsmen for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors®. Frederickson is principal broker of Keller Williams Salt Lake. Heiner is an associate broker with Cannon and Company.

Menzer is a Realtor® with Keller Williams South Valley.

Q: What is the role of the ombudsman?

A: Disputes, complaints and communication issues can now be turned over to one of the ombudsmen. Their official role is to try and resolve issues before they turn into a formal ethics complaint. The ombudsman works with the parties to come to a mutually beneficial solution.

Q: Do all complaints automatically go to an ombudsman?

A: Parties may elect to have an ombudsmen intercede on their behalf when an issue arises. Ombudsmen assess the situation to determine if it can reasonably be resolved.

Q: Who should I contact?

A: If you have a complaint, contact the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® staff at 801.542.8840.

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Artificial Intelligence (continued from page 24) combining it all, making the home search process easier, smoother, and more efficient.

Legal Research and Financial Due Diligence Companies like Leverton are already using artificial intelligence in semantic language processing, which can read through complex legal contracts and work through financial data, to smooth transactions. This is just the beginning. In the future we will see rapid text and voice data analysis, which can improve market research, competitor monitoring, sentiment analysis, and customer service. Such services may eventually allow real estate transactions to happen faster and at lower costs.

Personalization and AI-Powered Marketing

Knowing when and how to get in touch with past and potential clients is a constant struggle for real estate agents. What if you could develop a tool that would help you target customers, figure out the best way to reach them, and evaluate how likely a completed sale might be?

Artificial intelligence may soon offer a system for aggregating data from social media, the MLS, local news outlets, and other open source data in order to predict which customer should be addressed, when, and how.

Highly Skilled, Personal Brokerages Most widespread technological innovations suffer from a market backlash at some point. For example, with high-volume mass production of industrial goods, we’ve seen a resurgence in interest in handcrafted, artisan products from customers who want to consume differently. The same might happen regarding highly automated and digitized brokerages. Some consumers might always prefer the personal component and would be willing to pay a markup for the best human service possible, which could create a highend market for personalized, customer-centric brokerages.

The fear of disruptive innovations can often be traced back to the fear of the unknown and the fear of unemployment. And that fear may not be unwarranted; technological innovations often create seismic shifts in society as well as business. Just think about how the steam engine, conveyor belts, nuclear power, and the internet have changed our world and even destroyed jobs.

But in the end, we prospered. This is a very good analogy for the shifts that are ahead of us, induced by the disruptive forces described in this series.

That’s also the reason it is of great importance to start brainstorming about how you can use these disruptions to your advantage, instead of being surprised—and potentially made redundant—

30 | Salt Lake Realtor ® | October 2016

by innovative competitors. While artificial intelligence may make many professionals redundant, it will also create new business cases that savvy innovators can take advantage of.

Viktor Franz Paul Weber is the founder and director of the Future Real Estate Institute and a Global Shaper at the World Economic Forum in Munich, Germany. He has a track record as serial entrepreneur, author, speaker and top-of-class graduate from the Oxford Brookes University. Reprinted from Realtor® Magazine Online, September 2016, with permission of the National Association of Realtors®. Copyright 2016.

All rights reserved.

Statement of Ownership, Management and Circulation 1. Location of known Office of Publication: 772 E. 3300 S., Suite 200, Salt Lake City, Utah 84106 2. Location of known Headquarters of General Business offices of the Publisher: 772 E. 3300 S., Suite 200, Salt Lake City, Utah 84106 3. Publisher: Mills Publishing, Inc., 772 E. 3300 S., Suite 200, Salt Lake City, Utah 84106 4. Editor: Dave Anderton, Salt Lake Board of Realtors, 230 W. Towne Ridge Parkway, Suite 200, Sandy, Utah 84070 5. Owner: Salt Lake Board of Realtors, 230 W. Towne Ridge Parkway, Suite 200, Sandy, Utah 84070 6. Known bondholders, mortgages, and other security holders owning or holding 1 percent or more of total amount of bonds, mortgages or other securities: None.

7. Extent and nature of circulation:

A. Total Numbers of Copies Printed

Average No. Copies Each Issue During Preceding 12 Months

Copies of Single Issue Published Nearest to Filing Date

7,279

7,500

B. Paid Circulation 1. Mailed Outside-County Paid Subscriptions

5,476

5,595

2. Mailed In-County Paid Subscriptions

1,544

1,548

3. Paid Distribution Outside the Mails, including Sales Through Dealers and Carriers, Street Vendors, Counter Sales, and Other Paid Distribution Outside USPS

0

0

4. Paid Distribution by Other Classes of Mail

0

0

C. Total Paid Distribution

7,020

7,143

D. Free or Nominal Rate Distribution

0

0

1. Free or Nominal Rate Outside-County Copies

0

0

2. Free or Nominal Rate In-County Copies

0

0

3. Free or Nominal Rate Copies Mailed at Other Classes through the USPS

36

36

4. Free or Nominal Rate Distribution Outside the Mail

125

125 161

E. Total Free or Nominal Rate Distribution

161

F. Total Distribution

7,181

7,304

G. Copies Not Distributed

93

196

H. TOTAL

7,279

7,500

I. Percent Paid

98%

98%

8. I certify that all statements above are correct and complete.

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