PLAYBOOK
NFL
HOW DID YOUR TEAM RATE IN ROUND 1?
The draft is history. Now it’s time for top picks to turn potential into performance. To help predict who will, Pro Football Focus classified every first-round pick from 2009 to ’13 as either a hit (graded well above average in its metrics), on track (around average) or miss (well below average). PFF’s study pinpoints the safest and riskiest positions, plus the best and worst schools at churning out pro talent. The results? Former Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has a bright future—his position had no busts in the five-year sample, and his school produced just three subpar first-rounders out of 14. But freewheelin’ Johnny Manziel? Not such a safe bet. —SAM MONSON
BY POSITION
0.0% SAFETY
Hits
On track
Misses
Bust rate
0.0% 14.3% 20.0% 20.8% 25.0% 27.8% 37.0% 37.5% 40.0% 57.1% 66.7% CENTER
LINEBACKER
CORNERBACK
D-LINE
TACKLE
WIDE RECEIVER
SAFEST POSITIONS CENTER Buffalo’s Eric Wood, the No. 28 pick in 2009, was PFF’s third-best pass-blocking center last year. … Alex Mack and the Pouncey twins (Mike and Maurkice) have made six total Pro Bowls in 12 seasons with the Browns, Dolphins and Steelers.
BY SCHOOL
On track
LINEBACKER In 2012, the Falcons’ Sean Weatherspoon was No. 1 among 4-3 OLBs in PFF’s pass-rushing metric; Patriot Dont’a Hightower was No. 2 in 2013. … Aaron Curry, picked No. 4 by Seattle in 2009, is the only first-round linebacker bust since then.
RUNNING BACK
QUARTERBACK
TIGHT END
CORNERBACK Joe Haden, a Browns pick in 2010, has a combined 63 INTs and passes defended, the second most of any CB in the past four years. That’s a good sign for 2014 first-rounder Darqueze Dennard, who had 10 picks in 44 games at Michigan State.
RUNNING BACK The Bucs’ Doug Martin, who posted the third-best elusive rating as a rookie in 2012, is the lone first-round RB success story since 2009. … Jahvid Best (Lions, 2010) and Beanie Wells (Cardinals, 2009) are both out of the league.
QUARTERBACK Maybe Blake Bortles isn’t the safest first-round pick after all. The six QBs taken from No. 10 to No. 25 since 2009 are a who’s who of busts: Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Christian Ponder and, yes, Tim Tebow.
TIGHT END Eric Ebron will try to avoid the recent pitfalls of the Round 1 TEs, two of whom were drafted by Cincinnati. Jermaine Gresham has averaged just 566 yards in four seasons, and Tyler Eifert was merely adequate as a rookie last season.
Misses
BEST
WORST
230 210 402 24
GUARD
RISKIEST POSITIONS
SAFETY Earl Thomas (Seahawks), Devin McCourty (Pats) and Eric Berry (Chiefs)—all drafted in the first round in 2010—were three of PFF’s top nine safeties last season. … Eric Reid showed promise with 4 INTs in his rookie season with San Francisco.
Hits
EDGE RUSHER
GEORGIA Bengals star A.J. Green’s 22 receiving TDs since 2012 is fifth among WRs. … After a slow start, Lions QB Matthew Stafford has led the NFL with 2,024 pass attempts since 2011. BOSTON COLLEGE Carolina’s Luke Kuechly ranked third among ILBs in run-stop percentage in each of his first two years. … Indy OT Anthony Castonzo allowed four sacks on 1,221 snaps in 2013. USC Packers LB Clay Matthews, Texans LB Brian Cushing and Cowboys OT Tyron Smith have all made Pro Bowls in their first three NFL seasons. Does that make up for Mark Sanchez?
ESPN The Magazine 05/26/2014
023 113 123
FLORIDA STATE Vikings QB Christian Ponder has a positive PFF rating in 10 of 36 NFL games. … Colts LB Bjorn Werner and Bills QB EJ Manuel struggled to stay on the field as rookies in 2013. OKLAHOMA STATE CB Justin Gilbert hopes to improve the Cowboys’ poor rep established by Lions TE Brandon Pettigrew, Jags WR Justin Blackmon and Browns QB Brandon Weeden. LSU 2014 draftee Odell Beckham Jr. will try to snap a string of busts. … Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, with 12 INTs since 2011 (tied for third in the NFL), is the Tigers’ only recent star.
FROM TOP: JONATHAN BACHMAN/CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IMAGES; SCOTT A. MILLER/AP IMAGES