August 2012
3
MICHIGAN RETAIL INDEX
Retail sales, forecasts slip but remain positive Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity. Looking forward, 58 percent of retailers expect sales during July-September to increase over the same period last year, while 17 percent project a decrease and 25 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 71.9, down from 77.5 in June. A year ago June it was 63.7.
Current
For the important back-to-school sales period, 53 percent of retailers said they expect flat sales compared to last year, while 31 percent expect improved sales. Northern Michigan retailers led the state in June with 65 percent of the regional group reporting sales increases over June 2011. Gifts stores and apparel stores throughout the state rang up the best numbers among the various trade lines.
3-Month
11 -12
Performance Index
10-11
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
Michigan sales tax receipts totaled $576.3 million in June, down from $597 million a year ago.
Complete results of this month’s Michigan Retail Index—including data on sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring—are available at www. retailers.com/mra/news/michiganretail-index.html. The website includes figures dating back to July 1994.
11-12
Outlook Index
80
10-11
2011
2012
700 600 500
591
587
569
597
576
497
400 300
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Michigan retail sales and forecasts stalled in June but continued to show improvement over last year, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. “The performance of Michigan’s retail industry slipped from May to June, catching up to a national trend that began two months earlier,” said Tom Scott, MRA senior vice president communications and marketing. “However, we are still seeing year-to-year growth, which provides a broader picture of where we are.” Michigan’s unemployment rate rose in May and June, contributing to the falloff in retail sales performance in June, Scott said. The June Michigan Retail Index found that 50 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 33 percent recorded declines and 17 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 58.6, down from 61.9 in May. A year ago June it was 52.1. The Index gauges the performance of the state’s overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve.
Seasonally adjusted diffusion index, calculated by adding the percent of respondents indicating increased sales and half the percent indicating no change, and then seasonally adjusting the result using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
200 (millions)
Apr
May
Jun
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