Suffolk GOP Holds Annual Hangar Rally in 2025 Home Stretch
By Matt Meduri
As Suffolk County careens towards yet another Election Day - and the last, for now, odd-year local election in New York State - the County’s Republican Committee is sparing no expense to get the vote out with less than a week to go.
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Romaine Signs Mazzarella’s Consumer Protection Bill
By Madison Warren
Last Thursday, Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) officially signed I.R.7452025 into law — a new measure designed to protect residents from dishonest contractors. The legislation, sponsored by Suffolk County Legislator Jim Mazzarella (R-Moriches) strengthens the county’s licensing process and increases penalties for those who violate consumer trust, marking an important step toward greater accountability within the home improvement industry.
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(Left to right) P.O. McCaffrey, Co. Exec. Romaine, D.A. Tierney, GOP Chairman Garcia, Brookhaven Clerk LaValle
Executive Romaine (seated, right) signs Legislator Mazzarella’s (seated, left) bill (Credit - Suffolk County Legislature)
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Library News
Thursday, October 30, 2025
NORTH SHORE:
Craft a Turkey - November 10, 5:00 PM
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PORT JEFFERSON:
Strength Training with Jackie - Nov. 4, 6:00 PM to 7:30 PM
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Money Basics for Kids & Their CargiversNovember 15, 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM
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Gentle Toning & Muscle Strengthening on ZoomNovember 4, 1:00 PM
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RIVERHEAD:
Movie Matinee: Hocus Pocus - Oct. 31, 1:00 PM to 3:30 PM
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On The Campaign Trail
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Suffolk GOP Holds Hangar Rally in 2025 Home Stretch
Tuesday night’s rally was another installment of the traditional “Hangar Rally” that the Suffolk GOP has held for the last eight years at Calabro Airport in Shirley. The week-out rally convenes Republican and Conservative candidates from across the County to deliver final campaign messaging and boost the morale of the party’s army of canvassers.
Brookhaven Town Supervisor Dan Panico (R-Center Moriches) kicked off the event.
“It’s nice to see so many new faces as we grow this party bigger than it has ever been,” said Panico. “There is a slate of new candidates who are going to come fill the ranks and serve the people the way they should be served.”
Suffolk County Republican Committee Chairman Jesse Garcia (R-Ridge) (pictured above) then took the mic as host of the event, conveying that while the bulk of advertising, mailers, and media appearances are complete, the home stretch comes down to the rankand-file. Garcia touted recent election wins as a harbinger of a strong season for the GOP this year. One such instance was the March special election that saw Councilman Jack Martell (R-Hampton Bays) win a Town Council seat in Southampton, a town that went to Kamala Harris (D-CA) by about seven points. Garcia also pointed to decisive wins for Smithtown Supervisor Ed Wehrheim (R-Kings Park) and Huntington Supervisor Ed Smyth (R-Huntington Bay) in contentious June primaries.
Garcia also invoked the likely odds of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria) winning Tuesday’s mayoral race in New York City.
“People in the city of New York are going to elect a communist-socialist who wants to defund the police, raise taxes, and tell people where they can and can’t live, and want to continue to use you - Long Island and Suffolk County - as the ATM to fund failed policies,” said Garcia.
Garcia also mentioned the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk last month.
“He was talking about the American dream, life, liberty, and the pursuit of justice. He was somebody who was having a political discourse with those who did not agree with him. He brought them to the front so that they could have a debate. And on that day, he was shot,” said Garcia. “We were sad, we were hurt, but what did we do? We didn’t burn down buildings. We didn’t violently riot in the streets. We didn’t attack cops. We didn’t burn down police precincts.
What did the best of America do? We gathered, held vigils, and our houses of worship were filled to the gills. The future of our communities are in your hands.”
Garcia urged attendees to engage voters against the current platform of the Democratic Party - “in the PTA, the Little League, the soccer fields.”
Brookhaven Town Clerk Kevin LaValle (R-Port Jefferson) (pictured right), who is unopposed for a full term this year, mentioned the key word of politics: momentum.
“I remember ten years ago when we [Republicans] didn’t have any control. In politics, it’s about who has the momentum and who wants to get it back,” said LaValle. “If you look at New York City, they are doubling down on their failed policies of bail reform and defundthe-police, and they’re supporting a socialist to win the mayor’s job. We’re protecting our streets, doing the right thing by our residents, and making sure the Republican Party is as strong as it’s ever been right here in this county.”
spoke highly of his legislative colleagues, saying, “they have what it takes to lead this county to a better place.”
“We are going to be unified and we’re all going to speak with one voice for Suffolk County. The voice will be so loud, that Washington will hear us, and Albany will hear us,” said Romaine. “And hopefully, we get the money we need, even if I have to shake the money out of the Governor’s pockets to make sure we have a better infrastructure and a better future.”
Garcia then brought up the guest of honor of the night, as well as the top of the ticket this year, District Attorney Ray Tierney. Garcia recalled the collective “sigh of relief” the County felt when Tierney took office four years ago after winning a race that was deemed to be unwinnable.
“I stood up here four years ago and I said to the voters, ‘give me a shot.’ I had never run for public office before; I followed the lead of Jesse Garcia and Conservative Chairman Mike Torres,” said Tierney. “All of you in this room, you dragged me across the finish line. I was told not to bother running, that I would lose. I was running against an incumbent, somebody with millions of dollars in the bank and all the institutional support.
Presiding Officer Kevin McCaffrey (R-Lindenhurst) (pictured left), who is term-limited this year, remarked on a full twelve years in the County Legislature, the former half of which he was in the minority.
“Under the leadership of Jesse Garcia, we grew our minority each year until 2021, when the big red wave came over,” said McCaffrey, adding that that red wave brought Ray Tierney (R) to the District Attorney’s office.
“We don’t want to go backwards from what we’ve got, and that’s why we’re going to grow the majority here in Suffolk County,” said McCaffrey. “It’s been a pleasure to serve as your Presiding Officer and I truly believe I left this Legislature and this County in a better place than I found it.”
The GOP is currently eyeing three seats to pick up this year: the Brentwood-Central Islipbased Ninth District, held by Legislator Sam Gonzalez (D-Brentwood), the southern Huntington-based Sixteenth District, held by Legislator Rebecca Sanin (D-Huntington Station), and the Three Village-based Fifth District, held by Legislator Steve Englebright (D-Setauket).
“Well, guess what? I didn’t lose – because of you and everyone behind me. I ran with a great slate of candidates and they got me over the finish line,” said Tierney. “We’ve had unprecedented success in my office.”
Tierney defeated one-term D.A. Tim Sini (D-Mt. Sinai) in 2021 by a ten-point landslide, allowing the GOP to capture the D.A.’s office for the first time in twenty years.
Tierney cited a 68% decline in shootings since he took office, crediting the Legislature with equipping him and law enforcement with ShotSpotter technology across the county. He also mentioned that environmental crimes are up 700%, thanks to the Legislature’s new laws on the matter.
“We asked the State to do it; they didn’t. Our Legislature did it for us,” said Tierney (pictured left)
“If you look at everything from opioid overdoses, property crimes, violent crimes - all down. We are, by far, the safest big county in New York State, if not one of the safest big counties in the country,” said Tierney. “We did that because we worked together and we kept on.”
County Executive Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) (pictured left)
Election Day is on Tuesday, November 4. Polls are open from 6:00a.m. to 9:00p.m. Early voting is available at twenty-eight locations across the County until Sunday, November 2.
By The Editorial Board
Endorsements
Thursday, October 30, 2025
‘Yes’ to Proposition 2, with Notes
On the back of the ballot this year, Suffolk County residents will have an opportunity to approve the Term Limit Preservation Act, a bipartisan, unanimously-approved resolution that will change the term limits for Suffolk County Legislators from two years to four years each, while decreasing the overall term limits from six terms to three terms - preserving the twelve-year limit Legislators will be able to serve.
The move comes from the even-year elections law passed by New York State in 2023, which aligns local, odd-numbered-year elections with presidential and midterm elections in the even-numbered years. After it was overturned by an Upstate judge, the Court of Appeals upheld it. Nassau and Suffolk counties entered a joint appeal, which failed just last week. The Court of Appeals again recognized the law as constitutional.
We’ve spared no expense in expressing our distaste for this law, but unfortunately, New York State yet again forces Suffolk County’s hand.
Proposition 2, if passed, would not only alter the term structure going forward for all eighteen Suffolk County Legislators, but it would also avoid a costly and tortuous few years ahead. Legislators would have to resign their seats mid-term to run in special elections to align with the even-year elections in 2026, after just running for re-election in 2025. With two-year terms, Legislators would have to run yet again in 2028.
Proposition 2 would only account for one set of special elections in 2026, followed by the next regular election 2030.
The reason we’re urging our readers to approve this proposition is simply because Suffolk either dances to the tune the State plays, or Suffolk is on the hook for it logistically and monetarily.
The Legislators were also enthusiastic of this bill’s craftsmanship given that they would not have to run for re-election every two years, which they say is not only exhausting but prohibitive of their work on the horseshoe. Instead of giving large-scale, multi-year projects the attention they need, they’re instead hot on the campaign trail every other year.
Why we have reservations is simply because of the long-term outlook of this proposition’s effects.
Let us be clear: we do not find this to be a power grab on behalf of either party on the horseshoe. It’s arguable that this bill’s predecessor, which was sponsored in 2020, was more of a power grab to shore up vulnerable incumbents, but this isn’t how this iteration of Proposition 2 came online.
Our reservations are founded in that two-year terms can hold elected officials accountable by posing the chances of higher turnover. If a Legislator is effective and receptive to their district, they get sent back to Hauppauge. If they aren’t, their constituents only have to weather the storm for two years. That margin of error would double, possibly leaving a district under- or ill-
represented for longer than usual.
We don’t ascribe this characteristic to any current incumbent; it’s just a hypothetical we foresee for the future’s sake by expanding the length of the terms. We do, however, approve of the twelve-year cap remaining in place. We think that’s a fair balance.
While we’re not experienced campaigners, and while we understand that campaigning every two years can be brutal, we think it’s a natural way for the Legislators to get their ears to the rail. It’s not that they don’t hold meetings and town halls already, but running for re-election every two years means a strong sieve through which information can be collected. Yes, while more attention can be given to large-scale projects, investigations, etc. with a longer term, there’s a chance that more is lost when Legislature candidates are not hitting doors every other year.
This is a tough call for us. Yes, the County does need a way to balance its own terms amidst the dirty bombs thrown their way from Albany, but at the same time, we think a four-year term is too long for the County Legislature. If voters approve this proposition, they’ll align Legislative elections as smoothly and inexpensively as possible, but will lose the opportunity to vote out ineffective members every two years. If voters do not approve this measure, they’ll keep that close tab on the Legislators, but at the peril of three elections in four years, along with associated costs.
Another risk of voting down this measure, Legislators could very well be more in the throes of the national environment every two years - midterm and presidential elections. We’ve already argued that local issues will be drowned out enough, but if a Legislator should lose their seat, it should be on their tenure in the office, not the nationalized moods that dominate the top of the ballot.
While, in a perfect world, we’d prefer two-year terms for the Legislature, we will cede the point that four-year terms, on paper, could at least let Suffolk weather national moods and retain what little home rule we have left in administering our own elections. This measure, we find, will at least keep the Suffolk County Legislature more of what it has been, instead of a rapidly-overturned body like the U.S. House of Representatives. If constant campaigning is already disruptive to the Legislature’s work, imagine what little would get done if each office sees higher-than-usual levels of turnover simply because of the national environment.
Again, we don’t view this as a power grab, but as the utilitarian remedy for the changing dynamic of elections within the Empire State. We wish this was being proposed under better circumstances, but once again, Suffolk’s hand is forced by Albany’s decisions.
The Messenger endorses a “Yes” to Proposition 2.
Vote Like This is the Last Odd-Year Election, Because It Is…
The Messenger has left no doubt in our readers’ minds that we’re vehemently opposed to the even-year elections law that was passed in New York State during the Christmas season in 2023.
Allow us to beat this topic to death even further.
The law, signed by Governor Kathy Hochul (D), realigns odd-year elections, which typically include elections for local offices, with even-year elections, which always feature the presidential and midterm elections on a rotating basis. Local elections have traditionally been held in the off-years to allow for local candidates to not only receive some oxygen in the room, but to separate kitchen-table issues from hotbutton, nationalized politics.
The crux of this argument, at least with us, lies with the fact that the issues most affecting your life are likely to be handled by your local elected official. Municipal jurisdictions will invariably make a more noticeable difference when it comes to the daily minutia, property taxes, and quality-of-life issues in any given community.
That’s not to say that federal and State representation don’t matter, but they operate in different spheres.
Conflation of Issues
Firstly, our biggest problem with the law is that voters on both sides are likely to be susceptible to messaging that dominates the top of the ticket and then transcends down the ballot. There’s a reason Democrats and Republicans can win locally in areas considered unthinkable at the state and/or federal levels. It’s because their constituent service, attention to detail, and ear-to-the-rail politics - or lack thereofcan speak louder than partisan politics.
This isn’t to say that voters aren’t smart enough to see the forest for the trees, but in today’s divisive and increasingly partisan era, it’s inevitable that some will allow the top of their ticket - be it a presidential or gubernatorial vote - to guide the rest of their ballot. Split-ticket voting is also at historic lows in most of the country.
Additionally, we wouldn’t put it past local candidates to run on those national issues to whip up votes downstream. A local election is about parks, roads, and sewers, not immigration, foreign policy, and most social issues
Furthermore, we can’t see how there’s enough oxygen in the room for local candidates to compete with national candidates for attention. Who wants to hear about sewer infrastructure when there’s a political coliseum waiting to be filled?
Now that the law has been upheld on appeal, we think we’ll see tremendous ballot drop-off. In other words, voters will be likely to only tick the box for president or governor and leave the rest of the options blank.
Inundation and “Voter Fatigue”
A common defense from Democrats, who supported and passed this bill, is that it will alleviate “voter fatigue” by giving voters a year off in between even-year cycles.
We think this is a disingenuous appeal to altruism. Voters shouldn’t have a year off; there’s a reason why we hear, “every year is an election year.” Requiring voters to show up once per year - which is not a hard lift at all - only begets a more informed electorate. Who can balk at that?
Furthermore, why is giving voters a year off an attractive concept as it relates to the issues? The newscycle is already hard enough to keep up with, and given many people don’t pay attention to election cycles until late August-early September, what will that gap of an entire year do to the information pool? Memories are short enough already.
Increasing Turnout
This is perhaps the biggest discrepancy we can find. Democrats opine that the law will encourage more voters to hit the polls.
This is a classic prediction-explanation fallacy. Of course, merging odd-year and even-year elections will result in a higher turnout because more candidates are on the ballot and the even years generate more turnout by nature of the contests held.
But if turnout increase is the goal, then why doesn’t the law apply to New York City?
Yes, they remain in their own, exclusive bubble with off-year elections, while
the rest of the state is on the hook for this experiment. Moreover, Democrats are attempting to increase turnout among minority communities - a legitimately worthy goal - but if NYC has the biggest basket of minority voters, then why wouldn’t this law extend to the Big Apple?
Moreover, increased turnout doesn’t mean anything if local elections don’t see congruent, or at least proportional, levels of voter participation. There’s nothing stopping the aforementioned ballot drop-off.
Technical Difficulties
Democrats also argue that this will allay costs associated with running elections every year.
That doesn’t take into account that the ballots that will triple in size in western Suffolk and will likely balloon to dozens of candidates on the East End, where there are more positions up for grabs. Should there be confusion among voters, difficulties with voting machines accepting the ballots, or other tabulation problems, we could see delayed results or even more election workers on the payroll.
But this point ignores a glaring problem with the theory: some positions are still mandated to be elected in the off-years. The District Attorney, the Sheriff, and various judicial, school, and library board elections are still to be held in the off-years, meaning voters are still going to the polls, machines are still running, and poll workers are still clocking in.
So, we’re saving money, but at the same time, not really. Why then make the change?
In its original reversal, plaintiffs won on the grounds that the law violated charter counties’ home rule, with Judge Gerard Neri saying that local elections are an “inherently local concern.”
The Court of Appeals’ ruling that validates the law says that counties’ charters do not grant them exclusive rights of administering elections, and that the law is a valid “general law.”
We find it counterintuitive that Albany is fine with punching down, yet it’s like pulling teeth for Suffolk to get Environmental Bond Act monies and federally earmarked infrastructure dollars that were meant for municipalities. While not an entirely congruent comparison, we find it hypocritical and downright bully-ish that Albany wants everything to be streamlined to their demands, but won’t play nicely in the sandbox - even when such actions would likely be more of a boost for the dominant party at the ballot box.
It all comes down to this.
Partisan Damage Control
Governor Hochul is using this law to drown out suburban votes to conceal the fact that New York is seemingly evolving into a battleground state. She’s already locked into a tough, uphill climb for re-election next year, and if the GOP can win a statewide election in New York, it would send shockwaves throughout the country. We continue to believe that New York’s 2026 gubernatorial election will be the marquee race of next year’s midterms.
However, New York does remain obdurately blue at the top of the ticket, meaning down-ballot votes are likely to coalesce around Democratic candidates, and even if New York becomes a fully-fledged swing state, the fundamentals will stay play at least slightly to the favor of the Democratic Party.
We’d be fine if those Democrats were the blue dogs of yesteryear, but they’re so few and far between nowadays. Even so, local elections should be afforded the minton-the-pillow attention municipalities deserve, regardless of which party will see the net benefit.
It just so happens one party is in favor of this and they stand to reap the benefits if this law is upheld on appeal.
So, cherish this odd-year election as a dying breed - the last of its kind. Because it seems that that will be the law of the land for the foreseeable future.
Brace for Impact, New York
Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria) seems poised to earn the keys to Gracie Mansion on Tuesday.
The self-avowed Democratic Socialist is a far cry from the working-class Democratic Party that made up the backbone of this state for decades.
Now, as the old guard falls to the wayside - à la Andrew Cuomo (D-Sutton Place) and Senator Chuck Schumer (D-Park Slope) - a phoenix must rise from its ashes.
We’ve said before that we understand why Mamdani is so popular. Apart from a total lack of civic education, the classical role of government in the West, and the sheer infeasibility of much of Mamdani’s platform - Kansas City already tried the cityowned grocery stores, which were a monumental failure - much of his rise comes from one common theme: change.
Mamdani appeals to the left in the same way that Donald Trump (R-FL) has appealed to the right, although we argue that the Republican Party has never been more big-tent. Mamdani is the anti-establishment figurehead, a relative outsider, and pledged chaos candidate, who will fundamentally shake things up and fight for the little guy long forgotten by party leaders on both sides of the aisle.
But while Trump has not lived up to the negative hype that the mainstream media
so desperately wants him to, Mamdani is truly bringing us into uncharted waters.
The flipside of this is that if Mamdani wins, the path to flipping New York State red in next year’s gubernatorial race will become much easier. Polling and donations are already proving that, and the early voting metrics in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, held also on Tuesday, are already giving credence to a “Mamdani Effect.”
We understand the plight of party shake-ups; they’re necessary every so often.
But if Democrats think that doubling down on this kind of agenda is the way to go, they’ll find themselves completely boxed out of a presidential election for quite some time.
And if the old guard of the party doesn’t bend the knee, which Schumer is currently doing out of this exact fear, the gap will grow into a chasm, creating a schism in the U.S’ former most-dominant political party for the last 75 years.
So, brace for impact, New York. We’re about to see some true history being made.
And if Curtis Sliwa (R-Upper East Side) takes second place on Tuesday, Andrew Cuomo will have been humiliated yet again, but in the most glorious and unprecedented fashion conceivable.
Op-Ed
Public Schools: The Foundation of Opportunity for Every Child
By Dr. Timothy Eagen
A recent opinion column written by Steve Levy praised Long Island’s charter schools, suggesting they offer families an alternative to what he described as “failing, violent local school[s].”
As an educational leader and president of the Suffolk County School Superintendents Association, I welcome any dialogue about improving opportunities for children. However, the assertions in Mr. Levy’s column are misleading and unsupported by data. The piece offers opinions but no evidence to substantiate its claims – and in discussions about education, facts matter.
As we discuss education on Long Island, it’s essential to recognize the unparalleled role that public schools play in shaping our communities, supporting families, and providing opportunity for all.
Public schools are not just part of the Long Island story – they are Long Island’s story. They are where generations of residents have learned, worked and grown together. They are deeply woven into the fabric of every community, serving as both educational institutions and community anchors. Our public schools reflect the incredible diversity, talent, and commitment of those who live here.
The Promise of Public Education
Later this school year, our nation will commemorate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. The concept of publicly funded education in America actually predates that milestone by more than a century. From the earliest colonial schools to today’s districts, the idea that all children are entitled to an education in the community where they live has been a defining feature of our nation.
By law, public school districts must enroll every child of compulsory age who resides within their boundaries. This is not a monopoly or an outdated construct – it is one of the enduring pillars upon which our country was built, ensuring that education remains a public right, not a privilege. The promise of public education is simple: every child is welcome. There are no applications, no lotteries, and no conditions.
On Long Island, our public schools bring that promise to life every day. They serve students who speak dozens of languages, come from every economic background and represent every ability and aspiration imaginable. Our educators meet students where they are and help them realize their full potential.
Accountability and Community Connection
Long Island’s public schools are among the most accountable in the nation. Every budget must be approved by voters. Every board of education is elected by residents. Transparency and community involvement are not afterthoughts; they are at the core of how our schools operate.
That level of accountability builds trust. It ensures that taxpayer dollars are used responsibly and that the public has a direct voice in how their schools are run. Our districts are not managed by outside organizations or distant boards; they are led by community members who live, work and raise their families here.
Fact: Over the past four years, charter schools have diverted $539,053,509 from Long Island’s public schools — with minimal local oversight or public accountability. That is funding that would otherwise support students directly through educational programs, classroom resources, and expanded learning opportunities.
Public schools are not businesses. They are public institutions, grounded in service and guided by the values of fairness, equity and inclusion.
Continuous Growth and Innovation
Long Island’s public schools are continually evolving. They are not standing still; they are innovating every day. Districts across Suffolk County have expanded access to STEM programs, career and technical education (CTE), early college experiences and advanced coursework. They are investing in social-emotional learning, mental health supports, and literacy initiatives that help students thrive both academically and personally.
Our schools are preparing students for futures that look very different from the past, for careers that haven’t yet been invented, for colleges that expect flexibility and collaboration, and for a society that demands both empathy and critical thinking.
This work is driven not by competition, but by collaboration among teachers, administrators, parents and community leaders who all share one mission: to help every child succeed.
Choice and Understanding
Families want the best for their children, and we respect that parents may explore different educational options. Charter schools are part of that landscape, and many operate with dedicated educators who care deeply about their students.
However, it’s important to understand that charter schools are structured differently. They are publicly funded but privately managed. Their boards are not elected by local residents, and they are not bound by the same transparency, auditing, and open meeting requirements that govern public school districts.
Public schools, by contrast, operate in full public view. Every decision, every dollar and every policy is subject to oversight. Our schools are directly accountable to the communities they serve. Accountability is one of the greatest strengths of our educational system.
Performance, Equity, Excellence, and Safety
When measured fairly, Long Island’s public schools are among the best in New York State and among the best in the nation. They consistently outperform state averages in graduation rates, Regents performance, college readiness, and career preparation. There is also NO data to suggest that charter schools outperform Long Island’s public schools
Our schools serve far more diverse populations than many realize. They support students with disabilities, English language learners and those in economic hardship, often with exceptional results. Public schools provide specialized programs, counseling and enrichment opportunities that extend well beyond academics.
Additionally, based on the publicly available data provided by the New York State Education Department (NYSED), no public school in either Suffolk or Nassau County has been identified as violent or dangerous. Mr. Levy’s characterization of violent public schools is simply not true and/or supported by facts.
Economic and Community Impact
Public schools are not just centers of learning; they are cornerstones of local life. They are among the largest employers in Suffolk and Nassau counties and play a major role in sustaining property values, supporting local businesses and strengthening civic engagement. Public schools serve as both the educational and social center of their communities. School events bring communities together –from concerts and games to graduation ceremonies that celebrate a community’s shared success.
When we invest in public schools, we invest in the future of Long Island itself. Every dollar spent in our public schools benefits students, families and local communities alike.
A
Shared Commitment to All Students
Public education has always reflected our highest ideals as a nation – equity, access and opportunity. Long Island’s public schools embody those ideals every day.
As superintendents – the educational leaders in our communities, we respect and support families who explore educational choices. But we also know that the strength of our region depends on a strong, inclusive and well-supported public school system.
Public schools are not perfect, but with 350 years of experience, they are continually evolving and improving. They serve every child, every day, with transparency and accountability and. They are the foundation upon which Long Island’s future is built, and that is something we should all celebrate and protect.
Dr. Timothy Eagan is the President of the Suffolk County School Superintendents Association
Letter to the Editor: The Dave Chan Lies
Dear Editor,
Earlier this year, I took part in the screening process of Republican candidates for District Two in Islip Town. One of the candidates, Dave Chan, was questioned by the screening committee in reference to his party affiliation and on numerous times. During the questioning process, Dave stated he was a registered Republican, and if he was not chosen as the candidate he would not run on the Democratic ticket.
Well, it turns out Dave is running on the Democratic ticket in November. If you look further into Dave’s lies, you will see on the Islip Democrats website at Dave’s bio he states that he was a police investigator at MacArthur Airport.
Well, there has never been such a title in Suffolk County Civil Service. Do yourself a favor if you live in District Two in Islip and vote for DawnMarie Kuhn. We don’t need a liar in office.
Thomas Coffey Bohemia
CUT DOWN ON THE COMMUTE. NOT THE CARE.
As part of our commitment to bringing top-quality care to Suffolk County, we’ve opened another multispecialty practice here in Commack. This new practice brings more specialists under one roof and gives us a total of 51 practices across Suffolk County. We’re bringing the #1 physician practice network in the U.S. closer to home.
Thursday, October 30, 2025
National, State, and Local Temperature Checks
By Matt Meduri
National
The national redistricting “arms race” continues as Republicans in Indiana are pushing ahead with a special legislative session to redraw the Hoosier State’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Indiana’s GOP is generally considered not one to toe a national partisan line, as urged by President Donald Trump (R-FL). Much consternation ensued as the Republican caucus in the Indiana State Legislature did not have enough votes to push through a new map.
On Monday, however, Governor Mike Braun (R-IN) issued a statement that confirmed a special session will be called. He said the initiative is to “protect Hoosiers from efforts in other states that seek to diminish their voices in Washington and ensure their representation in Congress is fair.”
The proposed map (pictured right) would axe both of Indiana’s two Democratic districts. The deep-blue IN-07, centered around the capital city of Indianapolis, would become a solidly-red district. Marion County, home to the capital, would be split between IN-06, IN-07, and IN-08 to dilute its political weight. If the proposed map, released in September, were to pass, IN07 would go from a D+42 district - having gone for Vice President Kamala Harris (DCA) by that margin in 2024 - to an R+17.5 district. Marion County was once a solidly red bastion that countered the Democraticleaning Ohio River Valley counties in the southern part of the state, having backed every Republican presidential candidate from 1940 to 2000 - sans 1964. Since then, Democratic margins have been the largest for the party in history.
Additionally, the blue-leaning IN-01, centered around the Chicago suburb of Gary, is also on the chopping block, which was originally expected from any GOPsanctioned gerrymander in Indiana. The district clocked in at just D+0.4 last year, but would go to an R+13.7 seat as it takes in more of northwestern Indiana. The northwestern corner of the state was once the bread and butter of Indiana’s workingclass population, but has raced to the right in the Trump Era.
Republicans currently hold a 7R-2D edge in the Indiana delegation.
Meanwhile, the redistricting effort has just gotten clearer in the Sunflower State, with Kansas Senate Republicans having reportedly obtained the required twothirds majority vote to call a special session to shuffle the state’s districts. A two-thirds approval from the State House is still required, but some Kansas Republicans are distancing themselves from the issue, despite the GOP having a supermajority in both chambers.
Kansas has just one Democratic seat, KS-03, which includes Kansas City proper and suburbs and exurbs of the city. While competitive on paper, Congresswoman Sharice Davids (D, KS-03) has been able to outperform the top of the ticket after flipping it blue in 2018. Republicans currently hold a 3R-1D delegation in Kansas.
Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson (R-KS) has hoped for a special session by
November 7. Governor Laura Kelly (D-KS) has opposed the plight and has maintained that mid-decade redistricting should be unconstitutional. However, another state has somewhat unexpectedly joined the fray.
Democrats in Virginia convened a special session on Monday to consider redrawing the Old Dominion’s maps, likely in anticipation of former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) winning the open gubernatorial seat on Election Day. Virginia’s current governor is Glenn Youngkin (R-VA). The current 6D-5R delegation from Virginia could be bolstered by creative cartography to axe the swing territory of Virginia Beach, currently held by Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (R, VA-02), the Hamptons Roads region, held by Congressman Rob Wittman (R, VA-01), and the Central Virginia region, currently held by John McGuire (R, VA05). A redraw in VA-02 could be massively consequential for control of the U.S. House next year. A once-red bastion of the commonwealth, VA-02 is now prime swing territory, having flipped blue in 2018 and back to red in 2022.
rhetorically aspires for the U.S.
The election results not only sent shockwaves as a repudiation of socialist policies that have sent South American countries into fiscal ruin over the decades, but also as a beacon on a hill as President Trump continues to spar with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro.
State
Democrats laid the ground rules for the session on Monday and approved them in a party-line 50-42 vote in the House of Delegates. The Senate’s intentions remain unclear as of press time. Democrats hold a tenuous 21D-19R majority in the commonwealth’s upper chamber.
In international news, Argentina President Javier Milei scored a massive referendum win in his nation’s midterm elections over the weekend.
Milei won the Argentina presidential election two years ago as a libertarian set on cutting government waste and introducing free-market capitalism. In two years under Milei’s watch, government payrolls have been culled by the tens of thousands and the South American nation has turned a budget surplus for the first time in almost fifteen years.
Milei’s party picked up fourteen seats in the Senate and sixty-four seats in the lower chamber of the Argentine Congress.
Moreover, Milei’s win in Argentina is not only an affirmation of a political sea change in South America, but as a poster child for similar economic policies President Trump is championing in the U.S. Trump has approved a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina’s central bank on top of an additional $20 billion loan from private banks. Trump has said if Milei remains in office, the deal stays on the table - likely an effort to “fund the example” of what he
New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D-Brooklyn) has endorsed former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-Sutton Place) in this year’s mayoral election.
The endorsement came on October 23, more than a month after the incumbent mayor ended his long-shot Independent bid for a second term, and after months of political bitterness in the Big Apple. Adams’ candidacy culminated in him branding Cuomo as a “snake” and a “liar.”
“Brothers fight, but when families are attacked, brothers come together,” Adams said at a press conference outside a NYC Housing Authority development in East Harlem last Thursday.
Cuomo added that Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria), the darkhorse primary candidate who upset Cuomo in June and now the election’s frontrunner, is “not a Democrat”, but a “Democratic socialist.”
“It [socialist] shouldn’t even have the word ‘Democratic’ in front of it,” said Cuomo.
While Cuomo rose in the polls following Adams’ exit, he still remains the second-place favorite behind Mamdani. Prior to Adams’ suspension, Cuomo’s benchmark in the four-way race was as low as 21% and as high as 29%. He’s now been clocked at a low of 28% to a high of 34%, the latter being sourced from a Suffolk* poll of 500 likely voters from October 23-26.
Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa (R-Upper East Side) has resisted calls to drop out of the race, instead calling for Cuomo to do so.
Sliwa has made himself into a complete brand following his performance in last week’s debate - the second and final for the keys to Gracie Mansion. Mamdani supporters have flooded social media with comments stating their approval at keeping Sliwa in the public eye or even in Mamdani’s administration.
Following Adams’ exit from the race, Sliwa consistently retained third place in the four-way contest, receiving as little as 9% in mid-September, and as high as 22% in early July.
Since Adams’ suspension, Sliwa’s new low is 11%, as found by the aforementioned Suffolk* poll, and has high as 19% in a midOctober AARP poll of 1,040 likely voters.
In the RealClearPolitics average, Mamdani has a lead of 15.8% - a stark drop from his lead in the mid-20s (aggregate) throughout the summer. He still, however, remains a clear favorite - galvanizing 44% in the latest poll, and as high as 52% in a mid-October FOX News poll of 793 likely voters.
Local
Suffolk County recently announced the 2025 Real Property Auction.
The online auction is set for Wednesday and Thursday, December 10-11, beginning at 9:30a.m. The auction aims to relieve the tax burden by auctioning off about 100 vacant properties currently on the tax roll. The costs are typically more reasonable for prospective property owners.
“Suffolk County continues to explore opportunities to make this County more affordable for our residents,” said Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches). “By embracing modern technology and creating more opportunities for its residents and taxpayers to potentially become homeowners through this online platform, we are taking another step towards achieving that goal.”
This is the fourth such auction to be hosted in an online venue. The format, according to the County, “allows for greater participation, as those looking to purchase property do not need to be present. In prior years, individuals looking to purchase property were required to attend the in-person, two-day live auction.”
The County also says that the online format “reduces staff time and maximizes County resources.”
Realauction.com, LLC, is the selected vendor for this year’s auction. The auction is run at no cost to the County, as a $325 per-property auction fee is paid by the winning bidder.
Registration is open until Wednesday, December 3. Prospective bidders can visit https://suffolk.ny.realforeclose.com/ to register and for more details. Available properties can also be viewed here. All available properties are viewable online using GIS on the County’s website and at realauction.com. The Suffolk County 311 Call Center can also assist on details.
Brookhaven Matters
MESSENGER EXCLUSIVE
Inside the Islip Democrat Leak: Racist Jokes, Socialist Plans, and Mocking of Residents
By Matt Meduri
Messages obtained by The Messenger reveal Islip Town Democratic Committee members mocking residents, promoting socialist candidates, and making racially charged jokes during a civic debate in Sayville.
What began as a spirited community candidate forum in Sayville has erupted into a political firestorm after The Messenger obtained pages of text messages from a leaked group chat among members of the Islip Town Democratic Committee. The messages, shared by a source present in the chat, reveal realtime commentary during the event.
The conversation unfolded as candidates, including Kelly Perry-Hyland (D-Bayport), who is running against Suffolk County Legislator Anthony Piccirillo (R-Holtsville), and David Chan (D-Oakdale), who is running against DawnMarie Kuhn (R-Bohemia) for an Open Town Council seat, participated in a civic “Meet the Candidates” event co-hosted by several civic associations earlier this month. While residents filled the room to hear where the contenders stood on taxes, public safety, and overdevelopment, a small group of Islip Democratic insiders were exchanging messages that painted a starkly different picture behind the scenes.
Crude Humor and Mocking of Residents
The leaked text messages show that as residents raised questions about development and zoning, the tone in the private chat turned derisive. One participant, Irina Meri, joked, “If we turn into Queens are we gonna have more dumpling restaurants?” Another, Roberto Poo, responded, “Needs to stay white.”
Garett Peterson, Vice Chairman of the Islip Town Democrats and a declared congressional candidate for NY-02 in 2026, added, “Dog whistling to old whites.”
“They should start building skyscrapers IMO, just to piss off these people,” wrote Rae Paoletta, who is also Vice President of the Oakdale Civic Association. The remarks continued, “Can we not with the Islip can’t be Queens thing? I want to be Queens. I want apartments and public transport and all the food,” Meri added, later suggesting, “Turn the whole town into one giant apartment building.”
Vincent Vertuccio chimed in, “I have an apartment in D.C., an apartment I am a part of in Brooklyn, and family home Sayville and I exist between these locales.”
Pledging a Socialist Future
“2028 we run socialist candidates,” Rae Paoletta wrote of long-term political ambitions.
Peterson replied, “She has my sword whenever it comes. Assembly D[istrict]7, LD8, or Congress if I come up short I guess.”
Another participant, Roberto Poo, punctuated the exchange with an image of Karl Marx captioned, “Marxism Intensifies.”
“What I’ve learned,” Paoletta continued later, “is that the GOP on LI is ready for socialism.”
The Moloney Family
Targeting the Moderator
The tone grew more personal when participants shifted focus to the evening’s moderator, Milynn Augilis, Vice President of the Bohemia Civic Association and President of the Greater Islip Association.
“Omg shut up Milynn,” wrote Meri. “You don’t know the first thing about being respectful.”
Paoletta replied, “Yeah f*** off Milynn.”
The exchange, according to the source who provided the text messages, occurred as the moderator tried to maintain order following a tense moment in the debate where members of the crowd clad in t-shirts supporting Democratic candidate Kelly PerryHyland shouted about local police being “Nazis” and “gestapo” with respect to a question about local cooperation with ICE.
Internal Fallout and Public Reaction
Of the messages, one Democratic Party insider who spoke on the condition of anonymity did not approve.
“Suffolk residents care about affordability and safety, this new generation is wildly out of touch with the average Long Island Democratic voter. What wins votes in Brooklyn doesn’t necessarily win in Brookhaven. More Suozzi, less Bernie.”
Assemblyman Doug Smith (R-Holbrook), Islip Town Republican Committee Chairman, who attended the Sayville debate and was referenced in the chat during the event said in a statement, “While we’re focused on governing responsibly and delivering real results for Islip families, these individuals have shown themselves to be completely unserious about public service. If they want high-rise buildings and socialism, they can move to Zohran Mamdani’s (D-Astoria) New York City after Tuesday. The people of Islip know better. They’ll continue choosing leaders who put our taxpayers, our neighborhoods, and our safety first.”
The Messenger continues to review text messages and related communications provided by the source. This report represents the first in a continuing series, as further portions of the group chat — which include additional remarks and participation by Democrat elected officials within the Town of Islip — are expected to be released in the coming days.
By The Editorial Board
Endorsements
Errol Toulon for Sheriff
Suffolk County is lucky to have such good law enforcement, making us one of the safest counties in the state, and one of the safest in the country relative to our population.
A lot of that, we find, can be owed to Sheriff Errol Toulon. The Democrat has once again received the Conservative line this year, a distinction we find appropriate.
Quiet and reserved, the steady-as-he-goes Toulon brings a classic approach to law and order, but also balances it with the rehabilitation side of it. During his tenure, recidivism has decreased to about 17-20%, far lower than the national average of 68%. Toulon also touts the Sheriff Department’s programs to educate the incarcerated in various trades and life skills, the crucial other side of the coin of law enforcement.
Toulon was also one of the first Suffolk voices to speak out against the State’s counterproductive criminal justice reforms. While he understands the need for
reform, he thinks the pendulum has swung too far. Toulon doesn’t just speak from a pulpit; he has twenty-five years of experience of having worked inside Rikers Island. He can clearly speak to both sides of the issue.
Toulon is also in touch with other states and even foreign countries to help bolster Suffolk’s preparedness against criminal conspiracies, such as gangs and drug smugglers. Getting as much information as he can from the outside world not only keeps him in tune to the growing challenges of law enforcement, but prevents a siloed approach that cannot be afforded.
Unopposed for re-election this year, Toulon is more than deserving of a third term.
The Messenger endorses Toulon.
Leslie Kennedy for Legislature, District Twelve
By The Editorial Board
The Twelfth District includes, within the Town of Brookhaven, Lake Grove, Lake Ronkonkoma, and parts of Centereach; within the Town of Smithtown, Hauppauge, Lake Ronkonkoma, Nesconset, Village of the Branch, and parts of Commack and Smithtown hamlet.
Ask Leslie Kennedy about Lake Ronkonkoma. She’ll tell you at length the years of history and pressing water quality concerns at hand.
The Nesconset Republican has made the cleanup of Lake Ronkonkoma a priority, not only in terms of navigating effluent, but also in seeking a County-appointed Lake Keeper, a new vacancy announced in August 2023 that is now seeing its first taker.
Kennedy has secured $6.5 million in County funds for the reconstruction of the Stump Pond dam in Blydenburgh County Park, working behind the scenes to get the physical project teed up. While she empathizes with the view of letting nature take its course, she brings the realistic and balanced approach that the dam must be rebuilt.
Recently, she’s sponsored legislation to form the Blydenburgh County Park Advisory Board, an eleven-member panel that includes County departments, environmental and archaeological stakeholders, as well as civic associations and even a representative of the equestrian community.
Kennedy has also worked on weirs for Smithtown’s Miller’s Pond and has remediated four tributaries of the Nissequogue River.
By The Editorial Board
After the 2023 redraw of the legislative districts, Kennedy shed her portions of Islip Town in exchange for parcels of Middle Country, stretching from Lake Grove to Centereach. Kennedy has made sure to give her new constituents a pipeline to County resources, as well as humorously - albeit seriously - advertising community forums as a “complaint forum”, a dryly honest advertisement that packs rooms and precedes success in remediating quality-of-life issues. We appreciate her realism in conveying government capabilities to the layman.
Centereach received one of these forums recently, as well as Lake Ronkonkoma - the event long considered a mainstay in the latter. Moreover, for Centereach, she’s worked in lock-step with Legislator Nick Caracappa (C-Selden) in bringing sewers to the NY-25 corridor from Lake Grove all the way to Coram - an ambitious project that aims to revitalize the heartland of Suffolk County.
Kennedy’s opponent, Democrat Deborah Monaco, is not actively campaigning. As an interesting side note, Monaco was Kennedy’s opponent in her first election to the Legislature, the March 2015 special election.
The Messenger endorses Kennedy.
Tierney for District Attorney
The Messenger previously endorsed Tierney in our 10-23 edition.
Four years ago, Ray Tierney took the entrenched Democratic incumbent District Attorney Tim Sini, staking a campaign on a beleaguered internal prosecutorial process and questions over how a local D.A. can navigate the current headwinds released by Albany.
D.A. Tierney has more than exceeded expectations.
The Republican who calls Brookhaven Town home has spared no expense in ensuring that Suffolk County’s prosecutorial arm is working like a well-oiled machine, not only in terms of boilerplate cases, but in terms of internal department overhauls, leading groundbreaking investigations, and getting the numbers down in his first term.
He’s also unopposed for re-election this year, an indication that he’s lived up to the post and then some, we find.
He’s navigated a tough political climate, offering a repudiating, yet balanced, answer to Albany’s failure to adequately reform the criminal justice system. Tierney, while he believes reforms are necessary, rightly thinks that the pendulum has swung too far. He’s been a regular and vocal advocate for these changes, often working with victims and victims’ families on the matter, while stumping to Albany to lobby in-person for these corrections.
We’ve also seen Tierney take down criminal networks within Suffolk’s borders, from donation box thieves bilking clothes for a total of $500,000 from a Queens exporter, to a drug dealer running her business out of her Centereach garage; from street takeovers that pose threats to other motorists and emergency vehicles, to a sex trafficking ring maintained by a crooked cop and a high school teacher, Tierney has certainly had a productive term in the bigger prosecutorial picture.
But Tierney needs no introduction when it comes to Gilgo Beach. He cracked the cold case open after years of inept prosecutors sitting on evidence and pushing the feds out, while also shepherding the first instance of mitochondrial DNA evidence being used in a criminal case in the State of New York, and one of the first in the country overall.
We’ve seen not only a remarkable display of duty fulfillment, but a palpable turnaround from prosecutors of the past, making him all the more deserving of another term.
The Messenger endorses Tierney.
Endorsements
Catherine Stark for Legislature, District One
By The Editorial Board
The First District includes, within the Town of Brookhaven, parts of Manorville, Calverton, and Eastport; within the Town of Southampton, Eastport, Northampton, Remsenburg, Speonk, Riverside, and parts of Flanders and Westhampton; and the entire towns of Riverhead, Southold, and Shelter Island.
We argued two years ago that a transition from then-Legislator Al Krupski (D-Cutchogue) to his own chief of staff in Stark would be a seamless one. We believe we’ve been vindicated in that call.
Stark not only knows County government inside and out, but she’s claimed her stake in a pressing issue - the environment - with an ambitious legislative overhaulWorking Waterfronts.
The spiritual successor to the 1970s Working Farmland legislation, Working Waterfronts is a comprehensive package, complete with a dedicated committee, that aims to bolster Suffolk’s economic engines in aquaculture and seafood, preserve small marinas and establishments, protect pristine coastlines from overdevelopment, and ensure that the cost of living is not jolted by out-of-town big-wigs who price out the competition, develop shores into ritzy real estate developments, and make the North Fork accessible only to the extremely wealthy.
Stark married these concepts in her bill, giving her a significant feather in her cap after just one term on the horseshoe.
Stark also has her ear to the rail on the EpCAL site in Calverton - the former
Grumman plant that is now polluting the Peconic River with PFAS - a “forever chemical” that is so toxic, New York State has advised against eating fish caught in Peconic Lake. It’s going to take a monumental lift at the federal level to fully remediate the site, but Stark isn’t deterred in pushing the issue.
Stark’s opponent is Southold Town Councilman Greg Doroski. A Mattituck Democrat, Doroski is welltuned to his town’s needs - which is appropriate, considering he’s a descendant of John Youngs, the founder of Southold Town. The beer brewer by trade is also a Board liaison to the various departments and stakeholders in Town government, giving him a comprehensive dashboard as a jumping-off point in a County perspective.
Doroski is also no stranger to working bipartisanly, currently a must in Southold. We don’t doubt he’d play nicely in the Hauppauge sandbox if elected.
But Stark not only has decades of experience in County government, but her first term has clearly been successful. If this is just Catherine Stark getting started, we’re interested to see what else she can accomplish for Suffolk.
The Messenger endorses Stark.
The Messenger’s Previous Endorsements
By The Editorial Board
Kevin
The Port Jefferson Republican has taken the Clerk’s office to new heights with technological overhauls, quality-of-life and transparency updates, and a national leadership image for other municipalities to follow. LaValle annually barnstorms all thirteen of the Town’s libraries and remains in lock-step with the IT department to continue the technological improvements with the 2022 County cyberattack in mind.
Jim Mazzarella for Legislature District Three
The Moriches Republican is highly attuned to coastal resiliency and the health of the Great South Bay. He was a major player in bringing the Forge River Sewage Treatment Plant online, and is currently shepherding through infrastructure improvements for Montauk Highway and the new Smith Point bridge.
Nick Caracappa for Legislature District Four
The Selden Conservative is tackling an ambitious infrastructure overhaul - the sewering of Middle Country from Lake Grove to Coram. He’s also gotten several consumer protection, tenant protection, and workforce housing bills passed.
Laura Endres for Legislature District Five
The South Setauket Republican is making her first play for public office, looking to leverage her experience in representing condo/co-op boards and HOAs. Endres has experience in understanding how “little cities” work and will be invaluable in bringing that perspective to address the County’s growing housing issue.
Chad Lennon for Legislature District Six
The Rocky Point Conservative is perhaps the foremost authority on Veterans’ issues and is dedicated to mitigating the threat of human trafficking. Lennon was also the tip of the spear in leading Suffolk County to become the first county in the nation to recognize the Veterans Suicide Awareness and Remembrance (SAR) Flag, which he carried on foot from Orient to Hauppauge for its raising at Armed Forces Plaza.
Dominick Thorne for Legislature District Seven
Often, the correct solution is the simplest one. The Patchogue Republican employs this regularly in delivering for his district hamletby-hamlet, exploring groundbreaking sewer studies for Medford and Gordon Heights, and preserving and remediating open space, namely Canaan Lake and the Avery Homestead. Thorne’s sponsorship of the bill to deliver EpiPens to SCPD officers resulted in a life saved within a week of the law taking effect. A decades-long volunteer EMT, he continues to ride with South Country Ambulance. He is truly one of his community.
Anthony Piccirillo for Legislature District Eight
Sometimes, home-grown roots make all the difference. The Holtsville Republican has his ear to the rail in every part of his district and is committed to smart development, water quality, and quality-of-life improvements. He’s shepherding through the first phase of the Oakdale sewer project, the remediation of the Sachem administrative building in Holbrook - the grounds of which are to become an accessibleinclusive park - and presides over significant environmental decisions and legislation on the horseshoe.
LaValle for Town Clerk
Civics 101
The Necessary Standard for American Education
How Elections Are Called
By Matt Meduri
Since this is our final issue before Election Day, we felt it appropriate to discuss the process of how election data is obtained, analyzed, and interpreted in order for news outlets to make projections.
We’ll also fill you in on what to look for, especially in the nationally-watched races in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia this year.
What is a Race Call?
When a race is called, often described as “projected” by most organizations, it means that the outlet in question has received enough votes to determine that one candidate is mathematically eliminated from closing the gap with the victor.
What Data is Pertinent?
Every ounce of data matters.
A news organization will begin receiving vote numbers not just from the state, county, or town in question, but rather the precinct - or electoral district (ED).
Precinct-level data is crucial in not only projecting winners but also for gauging grassroots party strength going forward. Each ED is represented by a singular polling place at which all residents living within that ED vote.
Election workers at each ED then tabulate the results and report them to their overarching Board of Elections, usually at the County level. Election results are viewable live and retrospectively at the Suffolk County Board of Elections (BOE) website.
As the results are certified by each jurisdiction, the data is then sourced and applied to the wider constituency - such as a county-wide, town-wide, or statewide total. Election certification can be harangued by technical difficulties, extended polling hours, or special certification to avoid a hack or fraud.
In 2022, Suffolk County saw delayed results in that year’s elections due to additional oversight applied in the wake of the crippling county-wide hack that year.
In 2024, some polling places in Georgia and Pennsylvania remained open past their scheduled closings due to reports of bomb threats, which turned out just to be noise. However, the extension of voting hours is protocol in such situations.
As votes come in from the EDs, analysts at large news networks - colloquially referred to as decision desks - then begin the process of crunching the numbers. They compare current data with previous years’ data, voting trends in areas of similar makeup - ie. demographics, typical partisan lean, and turnout levels - overall turnout, and exit polls.
Exit polls are usually conducted in statewide and national elections. These types of polls are conducted among voters as they exit the polling station after they’ve already cast their ballots. Exit polls are generally considered the earliest tea leaves the public can expect in terms of where the winds are blowing.
We saw exit polling data in 2024 that effectively predicted where the night would go. A great example of comparing current election data with previous data is among age and racial demographics. In 2020, Joe Biden (D-DE) won 61% of Hispanic voters to Donald Trump’s (RFL) 48% in 2024 - a stunning overperformance and perhaps the largest shift among voters of the night.
Younger voters (ages 18-49) favored Biden by 17 points in 2020, only to go for Kamala Harris (D-CA) by 7
points last year.
While exit polls don’t show the entire picture, they offer a valuable perspective on where partisan moods are. They can also be extraordinarily helpful to decision desks in interpreting the data they get. While initial data might show a result typical of a certain state or constituency, exit polls might make them think twice before making the call.
Early returns are also helpful in moving the count along and seeing where each party stands as soon as Election Day results come in.
Why are Some Races Called Immediately and Others Take Hours?
Decision desks will typically call states and races assumed to be “safe” for one party over the other with virtually no data reported. The reason for this is that they usually have enough data in exit polls, early returns, and sparse precinct-level data to not see a massive shift. It’s not gut work; it’s prognostication versus expectation.
That’s why when a state that’s typically called for one party at the top of the poll-closing hour is not called immediately, it’s an anomalous result that doesn’t necessarily spell doom for one party. For instance, in 2024, most decision desks refrained from calling deep-blue states immediately as their polls closed, such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Delaware. The decision desks were clearly seeing something that the public and talking heads weren’t immediately seeing. Although Harris won all of those states, most were significant underperformances that rattled even the most seasoned election enthusiasts.
When a state takes hours to call, it usually means the race is going down to the wire. These states might take more than 90% of the expected vote before a call is made, with decision desks relying on every single vote to gauge the margin.
If a state is not called on election night, the call might come the next morning as absentee and mail-in votes are counted. Depending on where the votes are coming from and how tight the margin is, it might not be made for several days after election day. We saw this with Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Arizona in 2016, Georgia and Pennsylvania in 2020, and Nevada and Arizona last year. In these types of razor-thin contests, recounts are often petitioned by the candidates. In some states, recounts are automatic if the final margin is within a certain threshold. That can seriously delay projections even further.
Can a Decision Desk Get it Wrong?
On paper, absolutely. In practice, it’s extremely rare nowadays. Many decision desks were embarrassed by projecting Al Gore (D-TN) the winner in Florida in 2000, later having to retract the call, sending the country in pure chaos as Florida was easily seen as the tipping-point state that year. Some networks even made double-reversals, from Bush to Gore or vice-versa.
Since then, technology has improved and more data can be sourced faster. Decision desks don’t make errant calls anymore, although it’s still theoretically possible. If a call is delayed for no ostensible reason, the desk is likely holding it on principle until they can virtually guarantee an authentic call.
What to Look for on Tuesday Nightor in General
When the polls first close, don’t expect much data.
This column will seek to address the long-forgotten concept of civics and how it relates to American government in general, from the federal level to the local level. This column will explore Constitutional rights, the inner workings of government, the electoral process, and the obligations and privileges of citizens.
Results might be largely lopsided towards one party or the other.
The golden rule of watching elections: watch the percentage of the vote reported.
Results don’t usually start to take shape until about 30-40% of the vote is reported. At that point, it’s usually clearer to see which candidate has broken serve. Upwards of 50-60% can give a much better idea, and 70-80% is where the campaigns start sweating. At 80-90% of the vote reported, the picture is usually crystal clear, even if the race hasn’t formally been called.
It’s also crucial to watch where the votes are coming from within the state. Gauging not only the outstanding statewide vote, but county-wide votes individually, can give some significant details on why a race call is outstanding and where either candidate has a conceivable path to victory.
In statewide elections, the urban areas tend to fully report later. This is due to more people living in these areas - thus, more votes to count - as well as a larger percentage of absentee and mail-in votes.
Watching county-by-county margins is also critical to understanding the trajectory of where a state is going. In 2024, it was apparent by about 10:00p.m. that Donald Trump was overperforming virtually everywhere and that Kamala Harris was underperforming virtually everywhere. That was when the mood shifted and it seemed Trump was poised to reclaim the keys to the White House.
On Tuesday night, in New Jersey, watch the margins in the three key Newark-area counties: Hudson, Essex, and Union. These are blue strongholds that account for New Jersey’s overall blue lean. These counties also raced to the right in 2024 and Jack Ciattarelli (R-NJ) overperformed in these counties in 2021. Ciattarelli is running for governor this year, so pay attention to what the vote is looking like and how it compares to the 2024 presidential and 2021 gubernatorial results.
Watch for margin slips in South Jersey. An ancestrally red area, South Jersey is known to flirt with Democrats in the right environment. If Ciattarelli can’t hold his margins relative to 2021, he might not have enough votes elsewhere to make it across the finish line. For Congresswoman Mikie Sherill (D, NJ-11), the Democratic nominee for governor, watch that her margins don’t slip in those three Newark counties, as well as Mercer County (Trenton), and Camden County (Camden), the other two blue bastions in the Garden State.
In Virginia, watch margins in the key suburban areas: Northern Virginia (NoVA), Richmond, and Virginia Beach. Once the cornerstones of the Republican Party in the Old Dominion, these areas are either solidly blue, in the case of NoVA, or pure swing territory, in the case of Virginia Beach. If former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), the Democratic nominee for governor, can hold NoVA with more than 60% of the vote, hold the line in Richmond (50-60% of the vote), and either win or narrowly lose Virginia Beach, she’ll be the next governor.
If Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) can chip away at commonplace Democratic support in NoVA, you might see a later call in Virginia than expected. At that point, the question would be, does Earle-Sears eat away at Spanberger’s margin for error enough to carry the whole state, assuming she at least holds the line in the reliably red areas?
The Town of Brookhaven, in partnership with Special Olympics New York, will host the Annual Polar Plunge on Saturday, November 22, 2025, at Cedar Beach in Mount Sinai. This event invites community members, businesses, and organizations to take a dip into the Long Island Sound to raise funds in support of the athletes of Special Olympics New York.
On August 18, Councilwoman Jane Bonner (R-Rocky Point) welcomed Rebecca Hoffmann, the Director for
Legislator Leslie Kennedy demonstrates the hard work, tenacity, and knowledge of government to get things done.
She is the sponsor of the Veterans hardship fund, providing heating and utility assistance to those in need. She also sponsors Capital Budget initiatives to bring Med CAT assistance to all seven of Suffolk County’s Police Precincts. In total, Leslie Kennedy has secured over $30 million in Capital Project funding for the years of 2024 and 2025 for the Twelfth Legislative District.
More locally, she has collaborated with County Executive Ed Romaine to secure $8 million to rebuild the Stump Pond Dam. She has also obtained additional money for Smithtown Sewers, Centereach/Selden Sewers, and the Maple Avenue flexible Weir at Maple Avenue.
She understands the importance of preserving peaceful suburban life, and has worked to create and pass legislation that impose harsher penalties and fines for illegal street races and car meet-ups.
Having worked as a nurse for over thirty years, she has a background in health that makes her perfect for her position as Chair of the Legislature’s Public Health Committee, and is a member of the County’s Board of Health.
Legislator Kennedy has maintained her district office in the North County Complex, saving more than $1 Million in taxpayer dollars over the course of ten years due to lower rent, utilities, and insurance.
Credit - Joe Cuminale
16 Local History
Published by Messenger Papers, Inc.
By Ellyn Okvist B.Sc.
Halloween, a holiday observed annually on October 31 and noted for its pagan origins and its Christian roots. In North America and most of Europe, the observance is largely non-religious, celebrated with parties, spooky costumes, pumpkin carvings called jack-o-lanterns, and trick-or-treating. Halloween also marks the beginning of Allhallowtide, a Christian triduum, meaning three days - dedicated to remembering the dead that begins on All Hallows’ Eve, October 31, and is followed by All Hallows, or All Saints Day, on November 1, and All Souls Day, November 2.
Halloween’s origins date back to the ancient Celtic festival of Samhain. The Celts, who lived 2,000 years ago mostly in what is now Ireland, the United Kingdom, and northern France, celebrated their new year on November 1.
Thursday, October 30, 2025
All Hallows’ Eve
This day, October 31, also marked the end of summer and the harvest and the beginning of the dark, cold winter—a time of year that was often associated with human death. The Celts believed that on the night before the new year, the boundary between the worlds of the living and the dead became blurred. On the night of October 31, they celebrated Samhain, when it was believed that the ghosts of the dead returned to earth.
Without the ghosts returning from the dead, Lake Ronkonkoma has its own celebrations and Halloween history. Halloween would not be Halloween without the phenomenal writings from our own Lois Watt (1963) and her historical accuracy of our village. From one of our local history records, there is a mention made of the early settlers believing in witches and blaming them for things that happened on the farms. There is one case where a churn did not work properly, and it was believed by the people that the witches had caused the trouble. An iron was heated and placed in the churn and the butter poured out, so it was believed that the evil witches had been chased out!
In another instance, the wheels came off of a wagon, and this too was blamed on the work of the witches. There actually was such a place as “GHOST HOLLOW” along a certain stretch of Moriches Road that at one time cut off an angle near Alma Street on the present Hawkins Avenue. Some of our residents remember when fog and mist used to settle in this hollow, giving a very ghostly appearance.
In early deeds, WOLF SWAMP is mentioned in relationship to some of the Brookhaven deeds of the 1700’s near Lake Ronkonkoma. I can agree with this because it is said General George Washington received help from witches up in Tarrytown and Sleepy Hollow during the Revolutionary War to aid in a victory for the Colonies. Very possible.
We have a WOLF HOLLOW ROAD listed on the local maps of the Lake Grove area, a tangible reminder of a very real danger that faced the early settlers of this area. Many of the lopped trees in this area have crooked limbs, twisted and distorted into grotesque shapes that give the impression of being possessed by evil spirits. It is little wonder that their shadows cast by the harvest moon caused eerie forms across the roads around the Lake area.
The much-missed Gatelot Halloween Parade will always be remembered. Although I never had the opportunity to march as a student, I assisted the students for twelve years as my daughters attended. Fun, and especially important as the students went out one door and in another while most of Lake Ronkonkoma was there to applaud them - another “where else but Lake Ronkonkoma” moment.
We have fun, and sometimes criminal, events. I will start in 1936 with the headline “Ronkonkoma Ghosts Nabbed by the Cops for Hallowe’en Raids”. Halloween hobgoblins proved to be more than spiritual beings in Ronkonkoma late Saturday night, when State Police, acting on several complaints from residents in the vicinity of Ocean Avenue picked up six local youngsters, ranging in age from 9 to 15. The sextet, whose names were not made known because of their age, were located by Corporal Van Alen and Trooper McConnin of Coram, on a tour of the “haunted” area. According to the complainants, Mrs. Esther Dillar, David Orbonn, and Theodore Nemeth, the youngsters tipped over several outhouses and concrete lawn ornaments. After the roundup, the parents of the various youths were notified and succeeded in having the charges dropped when they agreed to make restitution for the damage.
The Lake Ronkonkoma School was bustling with a Hallowe’en party on Tuesday, October 31, 1939. At the Wednesday assembly, the lower grades entertained with a play, “Autumn Guesses”, and a Hallowe’en song. The upper grades conducted a question bee, directed by Catherine Pusemp.
“Halloween Parade Tonite at 7p.m. Along Hawkins Ave” was the headline in 1959. “The newly organized Lake Ronkonkoma Chamber of Commerce met last Thursday night to put the final touches to an ambitious fall program that includes: A gala Halloween party for tots and teens along Hawkins Avenue; a contest to select an insignia for the Chamber of Commerce with first-prize receiving a round trip to Washington, D.C., via Gateway Airlines, Inc., of MacArthur Field; a get-together dinner-dance sometime in January 1959. Close to 100 persons will shape up tonight at the A&P end of Hawkins Avenue. Assembly time is 7p.m. ‘We are awarding $100 in prizes for the best costume.’ Peta D’Amelio, chairman, announced. ‘Any youngsters up to 16 are eligible to compete.’ Prizes will be distributed by the Chamber as follows: first prize, $50; Second prize $25; third prize $15.; and fourth prize $10.”
Halloween introduced the UNICEF trick-or-treat containers in 1964. Local children were ringing doorbells with their containers ready for contributions with the “Trick-or-Treat for UNICEF” greeting.
The reporter took to the streets for the 1981 article, and Kristen Winant, Working/High School Student from Ronkonkoma, was asked, “What are your plans for Halloween?” Her reply was, “I’ll be working Halloween day, and it becomes too expensive to have a party. Maybe I’ll go to a movie.”
The Sachem Athletic Club went all out in 1982 with the Boo Festival.
“Ronkonkoma firm saves pumpkin giveaway”, lead the news briefs of 1984: “A spoiled pumpkin crop this year threatened to ruin the traditional Halloween festivities at Ronkonkoma’s Merrill Lynch Realty/Carll Burr, Inc. office on Saturday, October 27. Urgent action was needed. At 1:30 on Friday, Manager Kevin McClarnon rented a truck to scout the East End of Long Island. He was joined by sales agents: Judy Torres, Amie Robinson, Bryan Sheehan, Dave Grierand, and Arleen Shaffer. During their effort to obtain pumpkins their sad story spread from farm to farm. With the help of the Long Island farmers, they were able to round up 1,600 pumpkins from different farms as far east as Jamesport and Laurel. The elated group returned at 7:30.”
Since this was the firm’s Fifth Annual Pumpkin Giveaway, the turnout was spectacular. Over 1,000 children and their families enjoyed the event. To the delight of the children, free balloons, munchkins, apple cider, and pumpkins were handed out by sales agents in costumes. Additionally, a huge 100-pound pumpkin was won by Mary Queiroli, of Ronkonkoma. My brother and I were there that day, with my 1-year-old, and his 2-year-old.
The Lake Ronkonkoma Historical Society presented the “Not So Scary Haunted House” in 2015. The Annual event was held at the Fitz-Greene Hallock Homestead, 2869 Pond Road, Lake Ronkonkoma on October 18 from 11:00a.m. to 3:00p.m., with games and crafts, $5 children, Adults free.
Thank you to the Family of Lois J. Watt who continue to add happiness to our lives keeping our history real.
Watch Out for Witches by Lois J. Watt, 1963
Watch out for witches’ Halloween, When skeletons can best be seen!
Watch out for crooked trunks of trees, That’s where the goblin overseas!
Watch out for places where the ghosts, Live spookily as ready hosts!
Watch out “Wolf Hollow” and “Wolf Swamp”, They echo with the ogre’s stomp!
Watch out “Ghost Hollow” beckons you, For there, you’ll get the biggest BOOOOOOO!
P ERSONAL AT T ENT I ON AND DIGNIFI ED SERVIC E... O UR CON T INUIN G T RADIT I ON
Ker r y J. Maher Lic Manager & Director
~ Home for Funerals & Cremations ~ ~ In Honoring eir Legacy ~ Deacon Kenneth J. Maher, Aelysche Marie Maher & Kenneth J. Maher, Jr. Serving All Surrounding Communities
Proud to Serve Our Veterans, Law Enforcement and Fire Service Our State-of-the Art Building Offers:
Ample Easy Access Parking Spacious Chapels Reception/Gathering Room Children’s Room
829 Midd le Countr y Road, Route 25, S t. James, NY 11780
631-584-5200
P roudly Ser ving Our Community Since 1961
By Matt Meduri
Lake Ronkonkoma Gains a Lake Keeper(s)
In August 2023, Suffolk County officials launched an initiative for a “Lake Keeper” of Lake Ronkonkoma - a limnologist to study the Lake’s ecological and hydrological components, remediate its quality, and maintain the standard going forward.
Lake Ronkonkoma, the largest freshwater body on Long Island, is also the largest kettlehole in the Northeastern U.S. The lake also has shorelines in Smithtown, Brookhaven, and Islip.
In decades past, Lake Ronkonkoma was not only known as a summer getaway, but also a swimming location for the families of Lake Ronkonkoma, Ronkonkoma, Nesconset, Lake Grove, Holbrook, and surrounding communities. While still a cultural touchstone, the Lake’s quality has declined severely over the years, prompting the County to gather stakeholders, resources, and experts to return it to its heyday.
Spearheaded by Legislator Leslie Kennedy (R-Nesconset) in conjunction with Legislator Trish Bergin (R-East Islip), Lake Ronkonkoma has now gained not a sole Lake Keeper, but a panel of professionals who will fulfill the duties outlined two years ago. Moreover, the keeper(s) will be required to fund their own salaries through grants. The plan also includes a Lake Steward Program, a Water Quality Monitoring project, and a “State of the Lake” Report.
Officials and civic leaders gathered at the lake’s shore on Wednesday afternoon to announce the progress.
“This is not an overnight project,” said Kennedy, stating that the first study was done in 1986, followed by the Clean Lake Study Update conducted by the Town of Brookhaven and Nelson, Pope, and Voorhis in 2008, and the Lake Ronkonkoma Advisory Group’s “State of the Lake” and comprehensive plan in 2019. The most recent study was the Lake Ronkonkoma Water Management Plan in 2023.
“We need scientists to come in and review these studies. It will take at least ten years to fix this lake, and now that we have managers and researchers, we hope that we will get this in proper order and then fight for funding,” said Kennedy, who has been working on this initiative for four years.
“I can’t tell you how thrilled I am.”
Legislator Bergin spoke of the history of the beloved Lake Ronkonkoma.
“So many people have grown up swimming
their children enjoy the lake, but unfortunately the water quality has diminished so severely that there are days in the summer when we have to close Lake Ronkonkoma to swimmers,” said Bergin (pictured left). “A Lake Keeper is the first step to progress that is so desperately needed for this community. This is a gem and we need to save it.”
Suffolk County Planning Commissioner Sarah Lansdale (pictured left) called the initiative the “very best of collaboration.” She thanked the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) for their support and funding of the Long Island Nitrogen Action Plan.
“Dr. Chris Gobler and his team over at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences. They will be hosting and managing the Lake Keeper program,” said Lansdale. “They’re going to bring their world-class scientific expertise, their passion for clean water, and their dedication to protecting this lake for generations to come.”
Lansdale expressed her thanks to Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine (R-Center Moriches) for his “vision and leadership” of environmental stewardship.
Suffolk County Legislator Anthony Piccirillo (R-Holtsville) (pictured above left) said that his family has deep roots in the Lake, and as a child, he swam in the Lake.
“We’ve seen the deterioration of this Lake over many, many years,” said Piccirillo. “We hope to see this Lake come back to what it was years ago.
A representative for Congressman Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) discussed the “extensive nitrogen pollution” that Lake Ronkonkoma has faced over the years, which has contributed to the loss of marine life and recreational activities.
“This will be a twoyear grant,” said Kennedy. (pictured right) “Four times a year, we will do an assessment to see if the Lake is getting better.”
Stakeholders present included Rick Ammirati, President of the Holbrook Chamber of Commerce; Kevin Hyms, past president of the Greater Ronkonkoma Chamber of Commerce; Evelyn Vollgraff and Matt Balkam of the Lake Ronkonkoma Improvement Group; representatives of the Long Island Humane Society; Ellyn Okvist, of the Lake Ronkonkoma
Heritage Association; and representatives for Assemblyman Doug Smith (R-Holbrook) and Islip Town Councilman John Lorenzo (C-West Sayville).
The challenges of finding seasoned experts in limnology, the study of biological, chemical, and physical aspects of bodies of fresh water, have been a major choke point in remediating the Lake.
But the years of community collaboration have paid off in forming a body to conduct the research and administer the changes in hopes of restoring Lake Ronkonkoma to its former glory.
Published by Messenger Papers, Inc.
Down Ballot
Thursday, October 30, 2025
GOP Favored in NJ, Dems in VA, Mamdani in NYC - but Watch Sliwa
By Matt Meduri
We bring you our final Down Ballot column of the 2025 off-year cycle with three predictions, one of them we consider a bold one.
Virginia and New Jersey have gubernatorial contests up this year. Both are open seats and both are competitive, but the GOP has the edge, we think, in one of them.
Ratings Changes
New Jersey: Toss up to Tilts Republican (Flip)
Virginia: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
New Jersey
Jack Ciattarelli (R) Vs. Mikie Sherrill (D)
The New Jersey gubernatorial race is shaping up to be the marquee race of this year. The open seat is held by two-term Governor Phil Murphy (D-NJ) who flipped the seat blue in 2017 after Chris Christie (R) left office. Murphy was narrowly re-elected over Ciattarelli in 2021, making him the first Democratic governor of the Garden State to win a second term since Brendan Byrne in 1977.
All eyes have been on New Jersey since last year’s presidential race that shocked the nation, wherein thenVice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) won the state by just 5.9%, as opposed to Joe Biden’s (D-DE) 16-point margin four years prior. The state has not backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
That led a lot of credence to a Republican heading to Trenton in 2025.
At this point, we find the race incredibly close and one that’s realistically more of a coin flip than 2024 was made out to be, but we think Ciattarelli has the edge.
First, New Jersey is known for electing governors of both parties on regular cycles - often boiling down to two terms for a Republican and one for a Democrat since the 1970s. Murphy broke that mold, albeit narrowly, but the open-seat dynamic here makes us think this political idiosyncrasy - which is found in many other states - is in play here.
Ciattarelli, back for seconds, also brings a half-rematch aspect to this race, a valuable tool in helping both parties flip previously contested seats, especially when said seat opens up. He’s also a fundraising savant, keeping on pace with his Democratic opponent in the pricey Tri-State Area media markets.
Ciattarelli’s opponent is four-term Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11). Sherrill flipped her North Jersey seat blue in 2018 and has held it by consistent margins ever since. This area of the state was once home to the Frelinghuysens and the essential backbone of the old-school New Jersey GOP. Sherrill has no shortage of funds, but her biggest problem is her apparent inability to walk back the accusations she’s received over insider trading of defense stocks while serving a plum committee assignment on the House Armed Services Committee. Even liberal commentators, such as Charlamagne Tha God, have grilled her on this issue, garnering no credible results, other than that Sherrill “doesn’t know” how much money she made while in Congress for less than a decade.
Moreover, our talks with people on the ground in New Jersey tell us that the Ciattarelli people are fired up, while the Sherrill people are nervous. Sherrill has also missed some boilerplate engagements that are more or less formalities for the Democratic candidate. Ciattarelli, as far as these events we’ve seen, has shown up.
The polling aggregate also cannot be understated. In 2021, Phil Murphy was up 7.8% in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. He won re-election by 2.8% - a five-point underperformance.
As of press time, Sherrill is up just 3.7% in the same average.
While the two years aren’t congruent, both campaigns are certainly looking at the 2021 aggregate as a benchmark. For Sherrill, she effectively needs to be up
in the polls by six points or more to have some room for margin of error in a victory scenario. For Ciattarelli, his opponent is already underwater by the 2021 metric.
Individual polls have tightened in the last two months as well, something we saw in 2021 but not to the degree we’re seeing now. New Jersey was hardly on the radar last year, but ended up being close to a photo-finish.
Moreover, in 2024, Donald Trump (R-FL) outran Ciattarelli in only six of the state’s twenty-one counties, relative to the latter’s 2021 performance. However, Trump outran Ciattarelli by over [net] twenty points in Hudson County, home to Jersey City, Hoboken, Bayonne, and North Bergen. If Ciattarelli can hold his margins elsewhere in the state, and bring up his total in the Newark area, he’d be the next governor of New Jersey.
Moreover, Ciattarelli has received numerous endorsements from local Democratic officials, some of whom have defected to the Republican Party.
The Town of Garfield, located in Bergen County, backed a Democratic presidential nominee from 2004 to 2020, by wide margins each time. Trump won Garfield by a ten-point margin last year. The town has a Hispanic population of about 32%.
The same goes for West New York, where the GOP hadn’t received more than 30% of the vote since 2004, Trump won 42%.
In Branchburg, already a red town, Trump overperformed historical margins.
These local leaders, some of whom are Democrats, have endorsed Ciattarelli over Sherrill. Even former Newark City Councilman Oscar James II (D) gave the Republican the nod over Sherrill in this race.
County-by-county voter registration statistics from 2021 show a starker picture for Democrats. The GOP has net almost 170,000 voters, while the Democrats have lost a net 50,000. Republicans are also, as of press time, returning mail-in ballots at a large rate than Democrats, although Democrats lead in raw numbers. While registered votes aren’t guaranteed votes, it’s easy to see which party we’d rather be going into this election.
The operating logic is, if Ciattarelli holds his margins relative to 2021, outruns himself in the Newark area, and holds the line with Hispanic populations that shifted to Trump massively in 2024, he could narrowly pull this out.
We think the harbingers are enough to call a Ciattarelli win, but it won’t be a wide margin. We’ll settle on a 0.81.2% margin for the Republican - a razor-thin contest.
Virginia
Winsome Earle-Sears (R) Vs. Abigail Spanberger (D)
Virginia has an interesting contrarian streak to its gubernatorial contests. Since 1977, Virginians have sent a governor opposite the White House party to Richmond in every contest, except 2013.
Some thought that with Virginia’s relatively new blue hue that Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) wouldn’t be able to overcome partisan politics to flip the state after Joe Biden took the White House in 2020. However, the Virginia contrarian bellwether remained alive and well.
With that, we have no reason to believe that it won’t benefit the Democrats, who already have a higher floor in a state that fundamentally leans in their direction.
Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is a former Congresswoman who represented the Richmond-based VA-07 from 2018, when she flipped it blue, until earlier this year, when she retired to focus on her statewide campaign. Spanberger hails from a politically significant part of the Old Dominion, not only as a key suburban battleground, but also one of the factors in Virginia’s steady leftward shift over the last fifteen years. In fact, it’s one of three main choke points for the GOP, the others being Northern Virginia (once solidly red, now solidly blue) and Virginia Beach (once
solidly red, now prime swing territory).
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) has the benefit of having been elected in her own right - in Virginia, governors and their lieutenants are elected on separate tickets. In 2021, she and Youngkin reformed a Republican coalition that courted moderates and suburbanites without alienating the GOP’s faithful base. She would also make history as the first black female governor in the nation’s history if elected.
At this point, Spanberger is up 7.1% in the RCP aggregates. This metric was highly accurate in 2021; we have no reason to believe a similar enthusiasm gap is playing out in Virginia as it might be in New Jersey.
The only curveball in this race was that Attorney General candidate Jay Jones’ surfaced text messages in which he called for violence against the Virginia House Speaker and his family.
Spanberger hasn’t called for Jones to quit the race, and while Jones is currently an underdog in his contest, Spanberger seems to have played a risky gamble here. We think she’s waited out her own polling numbers to gauge just how politically toxic to the entire ticket the Jones scandal would be. As it turns out, not really, at least not to her race. The gamble then comes in with the guaranteed lack of a political ally in the A.G.’s office alongside her had Jones suspended, but the 50-50 shot she might have at gaining that valuable ally with him staying in the race.
We think Spanberger is benefitted more by fundamentals and historicity than anything else, and currently think she’s staring at a margin of 3.5%-6%.
New York City
At this point, it seems more likely than not that Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-Astoria) will become the 111th mayor of New York City.
Up double-digits in the polling aggregates, there’s hardly a polling error in the modern era that could see this race go Andrew Cuomo’s (D-Sutton Place) or Curtis Sliwa’s (R-Upper East Side) way.
That said, we’re sensing some palpable last-minute support for Sliwa, and insider rumblings purport that he’s punching above his weight than the current polls are tracking.
We don’t think Sliwa is a favorite to win this race, but he might overperform. We think a second-place could be on the table for him, especially as he and Mamdani appear to play nicely in the sandbox on the debate stage. If voters have second thoughts at the ballot box, we could see Sliwa vindicated in having stayed in the race.
But if Sliwa does somehow win this, it would be a bigger upset than when Trump won in 2016.
A Final Word on California
Latest polls see California voters leaning towards approving their ballot measure which would replace their current congressional lines with a Democrat-drawn gerrymander to offset the GOP map shuffles in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina. More might be coming down the pike, but we think that measure passes and gives Democrats three or four seats by default for next year’s midterms.
As always, these are predictions, not endorsements. We look forward to breaking down the results regardless of how impressively correct or preposterously wrong we are.
Published by Messenger Papers, Inc.
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Will the Ceasefire Hold?
By Herald Boas | AMAC Outside Contributor
The new Gaza ceasefire is very curious. Although it has 20 conditions, only two of them now really matter: the return of the Israeli hostages, deceased and alive, and the total disarmament and removal of the terrorist organization Hamas from the Gaza territory.
Imposed by President Donald Trump following Israel’s go-it-alone bombing of Hamas leaders in Qatar, Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire, which offered some real compromises for the Palestinians living in Gaza, but none for what remained of the brutal Hamas forces. Israel has notably eliminated several generations of Hamas commanders, as well as approximately 35,000 Hamas fighters. The terrorist group has retreated to what remains of its vast network of underground tunnels.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had, following the initial 2023 Hamas invasion and brutal massacre of Israeli men, women, and children, accomplished the near-miraculous defeat of the long-term threat of jihad against its very existence. This threat originated in Iran but has been supported by Iran’s allies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Although caught by surprise on October 7, 2023, Israel’s intelligence-gathering groups and the IDF have made a remarkable recovery to become the dominant military force in the Middle East.
While Hamas has failed in its militant efforts, its propaganda machine has met with noteworthy success. Aided by a sympathetic liberal global media, it has turned out almost daily videos showing suffering Palestinian civilian women and children, accompanied by exaggerated numbers of casualties. This effort has, over time, turned world opinion against Israel’s necessary and justifiable campaign to dislodge Hamas from its brutal control of Gaza and end its jihad to destroy the Jewish state.
Not a single European nation that has condemned Israel would have behaved any differently if it had been the target of Hamas terrorists. Nor do global observers of the conflict seem to consider fairly the fact that the terrorists hide in schools, hospitals, churches, and tunnels adjacent to civilian homes, deliberately using the civilian population as human shields – thus making themselves responsible for most of the civilian casualties.
The undeniable truth is that most of the Palestinian casualties were Hamas fighters, and that the Israelis have made historically unprecedented efforts to protect civilians.
In his first term, President Trump forged the Abraham Accords, in which four Muslim nations joined with Egypt and Jordan to begin to reverse the long-festering hostility toward Israel in the Middle East region. These Accords held but were not expanded during President Biden’s term. In his second term, President Trump has sought to expand the number of nations in the Accords, including, most critically, Saudi Arabia.
Israel’s emergence as a dominant military force in the Middle East was secretly pleasing to almost every Arab nation in the region, countries that feared the violent aggression of the jihadists ruling Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s efforts, while necessary to protect the Jewish state, in some cases hampered the prospect for broader peace. President Trump has correctly determined that for the Accords to hold and grow, the military conflict in Gaza had to end.
At the same time, he understood that the remaining Hamas-held hostages, living and dead, had to be returned, and Hamas needed to be disarmed.
Deftly consulting the regional Muslim nations and using America’s considerable leverage with Israel as its primary ally, funder, and provider of weaponry, President Trump fashioned a ceasefire. His ability to get Hamas to comply arose from his direct threat that he would, if necessary, assist the IDF in quickly finishing their military destruction of Hamas, something which had already
become more and more imminent.
All of the living hostages have now been released. Fifteen of the deceased hostage bodies have also been turned over to Israel. Eight to 10 of those who remain under Hamas’s control are expected to be released very soon. Egypt is cooperating with Hamas to locate the final few bodies.
The ceasefire is now at its most critical point – the disarming and disbanding of Hamas in Gaza. The leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey want this to happen. They will continue to apply pressure on Hamas — as long as the larger issue of all the Palestinians in
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Gaza and the West Bank can be negotiated.
Israeli efforts in the Knesset to annex the West Bank are a dealbreaker, as is allowing the Palestine Liberation Organization to either take over Gaza or, further, to form a Palestinian state. Israel has also said that allowing Turkish military forces into Gaza is unacceptable. Thus, a final agreement seems as elusive as ever. But the hostages are mostly back in Israel, and the ceasefire, if fragile, still holds.
Should the next step, the disarmament of Hamas, be achieved, however, perhaps the “impossible” can somehow continue to become possible after all.
WORD OF THE Week
Etymology:
early 17th century: from Latin in gratiam ‘into favor’, on the pattern of obsolete Italian ingratiare, earlier form of ingraziare
INGRATIATE
verb
Pronounced: /ihn·gray·shee·ayt/
Definition: bring oneself into favor with someone by flattering or trying to please them. Example: “The candidates for office worked all season to ingratiate themselves with the public at street fairs and concerts.”
Synonyms: appease, cultivate, curry favor with, Antonyms: antagonize, rile, provoke
Source: Oxford Languages
See how many words you can create. Must have center letter in word and can use letters more than once. 4 letter word minimum.
LEVEL: Hard
See bottom of page for the answers (please don’t cheat!)
November 5, 1889: Louisa Woosley is the first woman to be ordained as a minister in any Presbyterian denomination in the U.S. (Cumberland Presbyterian Church).
November 4, 1922: Howard Carter rediscovers the intact tomb of the Pharaoh Tutankhamun in Egypt.
October 31, 1541: Michelangelo finishes painting “The Last Judgment” on the altar wall of the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City.
Source: Onthisday.com.
November 2, 1983: “Thriller” single released worldwide by Michael Jackson.
November 1, 1969: The Beatles’ “Abbey Road” album goes #1 in U.S. and stays #1 for 11 weeks.
November 3, 1957: Soviet Union launches Sputnik 2 with space dog Laika (“barker” in Russian) aboard, the first animal in space.
October 30, 1961: Soviet Union tests a 58 megaton hydrogen bomb named Tsar Bomba, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated.
By PJ Balzer
There’s a part of my day that’s by far my favorite part. It’s a cozy pocket of comfort, hope, peace, and sanity. It’s a part of the day that undoubtedly affects the rest of my day.
I’m up around 4:00 in the morning each day - before my wife wakes up, before the sun fully wakes up, even before all of the wild songbirds announce that they’re up. I use the bathroom, drink a glass of water, and get the coffee pot dripping. Whether it’s autumn, winter, spring or summer, by 4:30a.m., I’m on the couch and ready for this favorite part of my day.
My Favorite Part of My Day
Some days, it’s a bit more meditative or reflective; on others it’s more reading, whispering with soft hymns being played on piano in the background. I often use the audio Bible, other times I just talk to God as you would the best of friends. That’s what He’s always desired to be to us.
A much-needed talk about the burdens, cares, concerns, and heaviness that I may be feeling. We talk about life, family, marriage, and the many cares of this world. He often uses the Bible to speak back. Something I needed to read and hear will leap off of the page and right into my heart. It brings peace, safety, and security to begin a new day with new challenges ahead. It can end up being a revelation, direction, or way of looking at a current situation that I hadn’t yet thought of.
Yes, God does speak if we’re willing to listen. This part of my day feels like a refuge.
Sure, there are times I end up missing or skipping my favorite part of the day; times I’m out at night later than usual and end up sleeping in; times I’m not feeling well, and my immune system is asking for that extra sleep to strengthen itself. It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen. While there’s no condemnation involved in missing my favorite part of the day, I do look forward to it all the more on the following one. In a world where we are bombarded with electronics, noise, opinions, and busyness, I personally couldn’t imagine not having that first hour of prayer and solitude before I face head-on a world that seems to be growing colder and more indifferent by the day. That first hour or prayer, my favorite part of my day, is what God uses to keep my engine well-oiled and ready to go with grace. Who better to spend my favorite part of my day with than conversing with the One who holds it all together?
“Very early in the morning, while it was still dark, Jesus got up, left the house and went off to a solitary place, where he prayed. Simon and his companions went to look for him, and when they found him, they exclaimed: ‘Everyone is looking for you!’” - Mark 1:35-37
Congratulations Natalie Affenita: Top 40 Under 40
Natalie was recently Honored in a special edition of the Long Island Real Producers Magazine as being one of the Top 40 Under 40 Licensed Real Estate Agents
Natalie Affenita has never been one to follow a straight path. In fact, she’s taken more detours than most-including captaining a collegiate dance team, traveling the world, working as a travel agent in Florence, and selling stone in a mason’s yard before realizing that real estate was where she was meant to be.
Her journey into the industry was anything but conventional. During the COVID-19 pandemic, she was working with her father in construction when a customer walked in, looking for materials. Natalie didn’t just sell him a piece of stone-she sold him on her talent. So much so that he took her to lunch the next day, not to discuss masonry but to convince her to get into real estate. After a few conversations and some paperwork, she was officially in the business, and she hasn’t looked back since.
Real estate has tested her in ways she never expected, especially when health complications forced her to undergo surgery to insert a cardiac monitor, which Natalie still has today. But slowing down? Not an option. Even during recovery, Natalie found a way to keep her deals moving, show properties, and stay present for her clients-thanks to an incredible support system of family, colleagues, and sheer determination. “Real estate doesn’t pause, and neither do I,” she says with a laugh.
Now, with Douglas Elliman Real Estate, She’s laser-focused on breaking into the luxury market, expanding her network, and making a difference through her extensive charity work. And if her track record proves anything, it’s that no matter what life throws at her, Natalie will always find a way to turn it into an opportunity.
Boys Soccer Playoffs Are Rolling!
By Vic Hernandez
is
most
time. We are dead center in the midst of playoffs this week and it looks like the weather may also cooperate for us.
I was talking to a friend about the AAA bracket specifically, which Section xi released late last week. Our conversation concluded with him saying, “There is two of the best high school soccer teams in the United States that may very well be on a inevitable collision course with one another. That could end up being our Suffolk County large school final game this year. This triple A bracket specifically is both top heavy and really impressive. On the opposite side of the bracket from each other are two nationally ranked teams that already faced off once this season. Brentwood is currently ranked 9th in the US while cross town rivals Commack currently sits at 17th. They played each other earlier this season at Brentwood where they ended up in a tie after regulation play and one overtime. That was both of these teams only draw this year. Neither powerhouse has yet to lose a game finishing with records of 14-0-1.
As a person who loves sports and especially the playoff atmosphere.
I’ll be the first one to tell you not to look past any team. On any given day even the last place team in the league can send the best team home early. Especially in the playoffs when it’s “do or die,” lose and your season is over. This bracket has really good soccer teams including Walt Whitman, Bayshore, Ward Melville and Connetquot. Any of these teams can find the back of the net, even in the last seconds of the game.
But to revisit my friends statement, I would also have to agree. Brentwood and Commack could be on an inevitable collision course with one another in the upcoming final game. If that ends up being the case. Some of the best boys varsity soccer in our nation would be on display this Monday night at 7:00 p.m. at the neutral site of Islip high school.
This game won’t finish in a draw like the last one, the playoffs don’t allow it. It’s regulation play, two overtimes and even penalty kicks if needed to decide the match.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. There’s a lot of tough teams to beat and plenty of good soccer to be played until then.
Beast of the Week: Jack Kamenstein Huntington Blue Devils
By Vic Hernandez
Bellport came out ready to make a statement. On just the second play from scrimmage, Braydon Cipp sliced through the defense for a 57-yard touchdown, and for a second, it looked like momentum was swinging the Clippers’ way. But Geovonne Henderson wasn’t having it.
On the ensuing kickoff, the Huntington playmaker took it 95 yards to the house, instantly flipping the energy and reminding everyone that the Blue Devils weren’t backing down. That return lit the spark Huntington needed
— and from there, Jack Kamenstein took over.
The senior wideout showed what leadership and mental toughness look like. After an early drop that could’ve shifted the game, he came back with focus and fire. A few plays later, he made a contested slant grab in traffic, then followed it up with a 23-yard touchdown over a defender in the back of the end zone. From that point forward, Kamenstein was unstoppable.
Every time quarterback Jacob Guzik looked his way, Jack delivered — finishing with 8 receptions, 131 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He made the tough catches, moved the chains, and set the tone for how a veteran responds when the pressure’s on. His chemistry with Guzik kept Bellport’s defense guessing all night, as the Blue Devils found their rhythm and never let up.
Kamenstein’s performance helped lead Huntington to a 42-21 victory, improving their record to 5-2 and building serious momentum heading into the postseason. From Henderson’s electric kickoff return to Kamenstein’s dominant night through the air, this was the definition of a team win — but Jack’s bounce-back and big-play presence made him the clear Beast of the Week. He didn’t just catch passes — he set a standard for how to respond, lead, and finish.
“I think we showed we are capable of playing championship caliber football vs a tough physical and well coached Bellport team” said Huntington blue devils assistant coach Malcom Eugene.
Credit - Huntington Blue Devils
The boys varsity soccer season on Long Island
in it’s
exciting
The Gamble with Trust: The NBA’s Integrity Crisis Is No Accident
By Raheem Soto
There’s an old saying in economics: incentives matter. It explains everything from Wall Street bubbles to high school report cards. It also explains why a professional athlete or coach, already earning millions, might still risk everything for a few more.
The NBA’s recent gambling scandal—ensnaring names like Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups—isn’t a story about sports. It’s a story about what happens when a culture built on entertainment starts mistaking virtue for spectacle and accountability for PR damage control.
When the league partnered with betting companies, it told the world that gambling could coexist with integrity, that profit and purity could share the same locker room. Now the receipts are in, and the myth has collapsed.
The Slippery Court
In recent weeks, federal indictments have alleged that Rozier, Billups, and several associates were involved in illegal betting schemes, insider tips, and rigged poker operations. The charges range from gambling fraud to organized crime ties—phrases more suited to a mob documentary than an NBA press release.
The details are still emerging, but the damage is already done. The NBA, which once suspended a referee for fixing games, now faces a crisis far deeper than one rogue official. It’s confronting an entire generation of players raised in an era where gambling isn’t just tolerated—it’s sponsored.
The House Always Wins
Once upon a time, the idea that an athlete would bet on a game—let alone one he could influence—was unthinkable. The risk wasn’t worth the reward, and the shame would follow a man for life.
But moral guardrails don’t vanish overnight; they erode when people are paid to look the other way.
When the NBA signed multimillion-dollar partnerships with FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM, the message was clear: gambling isn’t a threat— it’s a growth market.
That’s like saying cigarettes are fine if you put a warning label on the box. The product didn’t change; only the advertising did.
The problem is that human nature doesn’t respond to disclaimers—it responds to temptation. Players see lines and odds flash across their social feeds, announcers drop over-unders between highlights, and “responsible gaming” hashtags run beneath dunks. The line between fan and participant blurs until someone decides to make it profitable.
The League’s Real Mistake
Commissioner Adam Silver has promised an “internal review” and “policy tightening.” That’s the bureaucratic equivalent of a shrug. What the league won’t admit is that it created the very environment that made this scandal inevitable.
By monetizing access to the game—down to every rebound, turnover, and sprained ankle—the NBA turned private player information into a public commodity. Betting companies made billions on data that, just a decade ago, was sacred to team strategists.
Now, when a player tweaks his hamstring, it’s not just a coaching decision—it’s market information. And where there’s market information, there’s insider trading.
The league will say the problem is “a few bad actors.” But that’s like blaming one termite for a rotting foundation. The structure was compromised the moment the NBA opened its doors to an industry whose
profits depend on the perception of randomness.
When Entertainment Replaces Ethics
There’s a deeper cultural shift here. In the modern sports economy, players are brands, teams are content studios, and fans are consumers of personality as much as performance.
When virtue becomes optional and attention is currency, gambling fits right in. Why settle for playing the game when you can play the game—the market that surrounds it?
This isn’t about morality in the pulpit sense; it’s about consequences. Gambling doesn’t just risk corrupting a scoreboard—it corrodes the public’s belief that the scoreboard means anything.
Once fans start wondering if a missed shot or an early substitution was intentional, the damage is irreversible. A sport can recover from bad calls. It can’t recover from distrust.
The Economics of Decay
Incentives are the invisible hand guiding behavior. If you reward people for winning, they’ll compete. If you reward them for gaming the system, they’ll manipulate it.
The NBA’s partnership model did both. It told fans that gambling revenue would fund innovation and fan engagement, but it told insiders— quietly—that there was money in gray areas.
No one should be surprised when those gray areas turn black.
Politicians like Senator Ted Cruz are now demanding oversight, claiming that “games must be trustworthy.” That’s rich coming from a government that legalized sports betting to pad its own tax revenues. This isn’t a failure of regulation; it’s the predictable result of regulation designed around revenue, not restraint.
Rebuilding the Game’s Soul
The NBA doesn’t need another task force. It needs to remember what it used to stand for.
It can start by eliminating all forms of betting tied to player performance—no more “prop bets” on points or assists that turn human beings into financial instruments. It should bar league partnerships with gambling firms entirely, even if that means leaving money on the table.
Because here’s the truth: when integrity goes, the money follows anyway—eventually. The short-term rush of betting dollars won’t make up for the long-term erosion of public faith.
A sport, like a nation, survives on trust. And trust isn’t restored through slogans—it’s restored through sacrifice.
Final Whistle
Thomas Sowell once wrote that “there are no solutions, only tradeoffs.” The NBA traded virtue for visibility, discipline for dollars, integrity for engagement. And as with any bad bet, the house—the culture of consequence—will come calling.
This scandal isn’t about gambling; it’s about values. When a league that built itself on teamwork and meritocracy turns a blind eye to its own erosion, it shouldn’t be shocked when someone cashes in.
The NBA may weather this storm. But if it doesn’t rediscover the principle that fairness is not for sale, it won’t matter how many fans tune in—the game they’re watching won’t really be basketball anymore
