Thriving from Chaos How to create novel innovation in an environment of unanticipated constraints.
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Influence Ecology MAP2 ○ Conditions of Life: Knowing, Environment OTSL Website LinkedIN Profile Available for public distribution without restriction with credit attributed to the author with links to public profile on LinkedIN and to the On The Side company website.
Author: Matthew Jackson On The Side Limited © Published: March 2021
1.0 Losing it All, an Awakening When you poke the bear, sometimes it bites back. In 2013 I co-founded a company1 that made Netflix available to New Zealanders by removing geo-blocking measures. Geo-blocking prevented Kiwis from subscribing to the US Netflix platform, which had not been launched locally, ultimately meaning Kiwi's pirated movies and TV shows because of the delayed-release dates. Our technology was a world first. Global Mode™ was the first geo-unblocking technology included in the broadband connection2, an improvement that made it easy to use for non-technical users. As you might expect, it caused the traditional television companies in New Zealand, some erie3, and after lobbying efforts, they eventually took legal action to protect their patch. I don't blame them; during the last year, we operated Global Mode™, the main pay-TV provider, Sky Television, lost approximately two billion in market capitalisation (see Appendix A). More importantly, Sky TV hadn't reduced their reliance on satellite distribution when fibre internet, a more suitable television distribution mechanism for the modern era, was growing at 274% annually in New Zealand, the fastest rate in the OECD4. One of my co-founder's former housemates was directly involved in building Spark Ventures's streaming platform, Lightbox. According to hearsay, Spark had invested approximately ≈$80M for their streaming service, Lightbox during 2014. Though the investment was never separated in the company annual accounts5I know first hand from an agitated Spark Director I ran into at Christmas December 2021; "We had just spent Twenty Million on ‘Suits’ when you launched". In April 2015, Sky Television, Spark Ventures, TVNZ and MediaWorks, who operated all major free to air and pay television channels, engaged the USA based Fox Entertainment Group to take us to court over a Fox distributed movie. We estimate they spent ≈$10M in retaining three Queen's Counsels, the most senior lawyers in commonwealth countries, to take our customers and us to court.6 Their argument, Global Mode™ breached their exclusive content distribution rights, and this was a breach of the 1994 Copyright Act. Even with significant backing and the most experienced copyright lawyer in New Zealand, we were ultimately fighting a social battle against Hollywood. On 1 September 2015 we switched off the Global Mode™
Bypass Network Services Wikipedia - Slingshot ISP 3 Global mode action: You Canute be serious, Bill Bennet 4 NZ Tops OECD Fibre Growth 5 Spark 2014 Annual Report 6 Global Mode saga: Legal action to go ahead, 17 Apr 2015, Shannon Williams, 1
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network7. We went from having a highly profitable, high-growth business to shutting it down within three weeks.8
Image 1: IP geo-location issues were brought into mainstream discussion in New Zealand when Bypass & 15 telecommunications companies were served an injunction to stop operating the world’s first wholesale network level geo-location technology. CallPlus, depicted as being bullied, was the parent company of Slingshot, the first broadband provider in the world to offer Global Mode™. Cartoon Credit: Jeff Bell Stuff.co.nz
Out of our depth, we did not have the resources to influence the environment. I lost my income, as have many people who have suffered during this covid19 pandemic. So how did I survive? I had help, my two brothers lent me funds from my mothers' estate. I sold my personal assets; my beautiful black Audi A4 turbo was a luxury I did not need, relative to keeping a roof over my daughters head. A good friend gave me a cheap car & I relied heavily on my study of transactionalism and the frameworks in transactional competency to reinvent our business rapidly. We hired people with different skills in less than 18 months; we reinvented the business with a new product. We leveraged our existing technology resources and customer base to offer a platform that keeps kids safe online. By January 2018, our global parental controls network supported nearly 20,000,000 users in New Zealand, India, Nepal and Bangladesh.9 7
GlobalMode Dropped After Legal Action - RNZ How to unintentionally start a movement, On The Side Limited, Company Insights Blog 9 Robi SafeNet Television Advertising YouTube 900k+ views 8
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As COVID-19 became our reality this past year, I noticed a discussion of resilience on social media and from our business leaders in the media. Something didn't make sense. People call me resilient like it's something I did on my own. From my experience, resilience came from working with others and getting support from my family. I began to question, 'Is resilience the answer to building a PostCOVID business or adjusting our business models in near real-time?' I didn’t think so. There are six or seven significant phases of COVID-19, different states, which will vary based on government decisions, vaccine availability and border restrictions. All of this is outside of your control and constantly changing. Resilience is merely surviving, and as much as I value the space to be vulnerable, I can't help but feel we need a change in mindset if we are to thrive PostCOVID-19. I'm not saying we don't need resilience; I could not have survived being taken to court by Sky, Spark, TVNZ, MediaWorks and Fox if I didn't have my family and the support of my community. My assertion is that we need to think accurately and holistically about the environment we are working in and the way we respond to change. And if we don't, I fear that we will miss the opportunity this crisis provides us to create a new normal where black lives matter and the environment and wellbeing are prioritised alongside company profitability.
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2.0 Responding to Change is a Natural Phenomenon Never let a serious crisis go to waste - Winston Churchill We will see more adaptive innovation during the pandemic than we have seen in the preceding decade because constraints drive innovation. We have experienced the rapid adoption of cloud-based systems like Zoom; remote working has changed how we work and communicate. Ubiquitous adoption of eCommerce and subscription business models by traditional organisations means adopting the cloud is no longer a competitive advantage10. The cloud's wider adoption has now set a new benchmark for business performance.11 According to Mckinsey, "COVID-19 has pushed companies over the technology tipping point—and transformed business forever." A McKinsey global survey12 found that companies have accelerated the digitisation of their customer and supply-chain interactions and their internal operations by three to four years. And the share of digital or digitally enabled products in their portfolios has accelerated by seven years13. Novel & creative solutions are emerging before our eyes every day. Papatūānuku (Mother Earth) has done the heavy lifting for us; no longer is there a distinction between environment and economics; they rely on each other. Dorothy pulled back the curtain on the Wizard; it turns out governments did have the ability to make an impact on global warming all along14. The world has changed. The challenge now facing the world is two-fold: nurturing and driving the right positive actions to break out of the chaotic space and making sense of a constantly changing environment to create novel solutions as new needs emerge. Can organisations traditionally built for enabling efficiency and consistency recognise the need to adapt to their environment in a new way to thrive from this chaos and become stronger? In a crisis, historical performance and hierarchical organisational structures prevent our traditional leaders from responding to this level of almost real-time change and uncertainty. Events like COVID-19 hijack our brains, making us feel we' sort of' or 'almost' predicted them because they are retrospectively explainable, says Nasim Taleb in his book The Black Swan15. Because of this constant change, business risk is not easily measurable; risk is a calculation based on data probability. However, the data during covid is not Information Week Adopting cloud is no longer an advantage. 3 August 2015 Harvard Business Review: Cloud: Driving a Faster, More Connected Business 12 The online survey conducted by Mckinsey was in the field from July 7 to July 31, 2020, and garnered responses from 899 C-level executives and senior managers representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, and functional specialties. 13 How covid-19 has pushed companies over the technology tipping point and transformed business forever 14 MIT How will covid-19 ultimately impact climate change 15 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable; by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Published by Random House (U.S.) Allen Lane (U.K.) April 17, 2007 10 11
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readily observable. Therefore, the way we make decisions needs to change as we are operating with incomplete data. Inherently as humans, when we are under threat, we retrench and rely on what we know works; but the rules of the game are different, and the leadership narratives of resilience are not the way forward. Resilience means we go back to normal; we go back to the way things were; those looking to return to normal will find themselves left behind. Becoming resilient is not going to help us create a modern society. A PostCOVID world doesn't look like the one we were accustomed to operating. In The Black Swan, Taleb stresses there are differences between antifragile and resilient. "Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better."- says Taleb. In nature, some things benefit from shocks; situations like COVID-19 cause some companies to thrive and grow. The volatile environment, the randomness, disorder and chaos creates an environment for creativity as it forces constraints that means people must think differently. While a resilient system resists the shock and stays the same, an antifragile system gets better. Taleb's view is that the antifragile loves randomness and uncertainty; it loves errors and failure. This distinction is crucial because resilience is about creating certainty in a complicated situation. Antifragility helps us deal with the unknown, to take actions without the need to understand the data. Resilience depends on knowing what stresses you will be subject to and building defences against those stresses. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same, whereas the antifragile gets better. Antifragility does not require that you know the stressors in advance since you expect to be strengthened by them.
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Image 2: Example of Resilience; a drop disturbs the water. Eventually, the ripples gradually disperse in amplitude returning to the previous state.
When an organisation, or organism can thrive with temporary unpredictability, it can operate without a complete understanding of our environment. The ability to thrive from change requires leaders to build organisations that don't rely on predictive models so they can thrive when there is uncertainty. Antifragile is a state beyond resilience and robustness, which can occur in any condition of life or field; politics, business and even in our personal lives. Taleb says this property of antifragility is behind everything that has changed with time: evolution, culture and ideas. When we consider POSTCovid planning in our organisation, we need to ask if it is possible to have a systematic and broad approach to non-predictive decision making and should we change? Taleb advocates what he calls "non-predictive decision making" where companies are built to withstand unexpected change. To survive is not enough. Taleb is interested in things that thrive on uncertainty. Non-predictive decision making allows us to respond and take action in any situation in which there is randomness, unpredictability, or incomplete understanding of things and create novel and innovative solutions. Resilient companies' gains will be measured and capped as people seek to return to normal.
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Image 3: Antifragile systems can withstand and benefit outlier events and will make exponential gains. Resilient companies' gains are measured and capped as they seek to return to normal.
When it comes to random events, being robust is certainly not good enough. Robust things will break, yet this is how we have designed most organisations; to be antifragile, you need a mechanism by which the system regenerates itself continuously using (rather than suffering from) random events, unpredictable shocks, stressors, and volatility. Critically, most organisations are deprived of volatility, avoid randomness and the stressors that will harm them. "We have been systematically causing the fragility of our economy, our health, political life, education, almost every aspect of our economy for decades. Human-made complex systems tend to develop hierarchies to control and eliminate predictability," says Taleb. So while the modern world is increasing technological knowledge, this has suppressed randomness and volatility stressors. Much of our current, structured organisational design has harmed us with top-down policies and centralised decision-making that don't leverage our organisations' conscious collective. If there was ever a time to consider reengineering your organisation to thrive from chaos and disruption, the time is now. For the foreseeable future, we will all be operating in a state where highly improbable & uncertain events will be having a substantial impact on company profit and operating environment. A new set of rules is required to navigate and reinvent within the chaos that impacts systems that will constantly change due to the pandemic, climate change and the reduction of biodiversity.
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While Antifragility is a state that responds to constant change and thrives in chaos, it didn't explain to me how to act; so I began to research methodologies. I was introduced to the Cynefin™ model, which includes the state of chaos. According to Dave Snowden, the creator of Cynefin™, chaos is not a state we should stay in. It's good now and then but not always. It's also a very costly environment to maintain, especially when compared with a fragile system which has been designed to pursue efficiency by removing variations. So how can you benefit from the chaos caused by Covid? To explore the linguistic distinctions of antifragile, resilience, robustness and chaos to make sense of how we understand the Condition of Life: Environment, I signed up for Cynefin™ Foundations in the Field Of Study Complex Adaptive Systems Theory via Cognitive Edge16. In looking into the role of anti-fragility and chaos on LinkedIn17 in August 2020, I engaged with Dave Snowden on LinkedIn who had this to say…..
Like many inventors, Nasim can be a polarizing figure, but there is one underlying element that links Nasim to Snowden. Nasim purports that Antifragily is a state found in nature, Dave is a welsh native and Cynefin™ comes from Welsh word for habitat. Both of our authors believe that responding to change occurs in a natural environment.
Cognitive Edge was founded in 2005 by Dave Snowden to build methods, tools and capability that apply the wisdom from Complex Adaptive Systems theory and other scientific disciplines in social systems. 17 www.linkedin.com Posts Matthew Jackson Antifragile Blackswan Cynefin 16
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So how can we diagnose antifragility in an organisation and find a method to thrive from chaos? Cynefin™ model is a sense-making tool that helps you create situational awareness. Organisations need to start redefining how we assess risk as our inability to change at speed. As Kirkland Tibbels18 from Influence Ecology19 says, we are organisms in an environment; how can we categorise that environment and determine how to act in real time to meet our aims if that environment is constantly changing?
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Profile Kirkland Tibbels Influence Ecology: The leading business education in Transactional Competence™
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3.0 Making Sense of your Environment Success consists of going from Failure to Failure without loss of enthusiasm - Winston Churchill. In entrepreneurialism, failure is expected. In a ClubHouse forum I held recently on the subject of Celebrating Failure20, three of the founders on the panel had sold a house due to 'failure'. When I meet someone new, and they ask what I do, I have a standard response. "I have three projects you may have heard of and 12 that failed." I've shut down more businesses that most people start, but my most significant failure has proved to have provided my most extraordinary insights. Because of the litigation I learnt more from Global Mode™ than I lost, and it changed my mindset to stress and how I respond to change. I became antifragile. Taleb asserts that resilience is a reaction to survival, and this is different from antifragility, which is the ability to thrive and rapidly adapt to change in Chaos. And that the reason this distinction is important is you can choose to face the reality of business failure & market collapse or introduce a new way of working to thrive from COVID-19 and make exponential gains. The challenge is, for most people, the ability to adapt is inherently fragile; this is because our cognitive bias is designed to keep us safe. The first step is that we need to recognise during COVID-19, we're operating in a different environment than usual. The Cynefin™ model from Dave Snowden is a decision-making tool that helps us perceive situations and make sense of our own and other people's behaviour. Included here is a quick reference; I have added a series of videos to Appendix B if you would like to learn more. For now, recognise that we have two significant states, Predictable and Unpredictable. In this paper, we are focused on the Unpredictable domain, which includes Chaos and Complexity states. This paper is designed to make you aware that an environment can have multiple states and that this can help you with innovate if you understand how navigate the state.
Celebrating Failure: Lessons Learnt from Swinging Big Tuesday 23rd February on Clubhouse
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Image 4: The Cynefin™ framework (kuh-NEV-in) is a conceptual framework used to aid decision-making. When he worked for IBM Global Services, created in 1999 by Dave Snowden, it has been described as a "sense-making device". Cynefin offers five decision-making contexts or "domains"— clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, and disorder—that helps us perceive situations and make sense of people's behaviour. The framework draws on research into systems theory, complexity theory, network theory and learning theories.
In the Cynefin™ model, when we don't know which state we are in and can't agree on a way forward, it's called Confused. How many people have felt overwhelmed lately during Covid? This is because we are used to operating in a Complicated environment focused on implementing specialised knowledge and efficiency. Even companies and inventors who are experts in navigating Complexity are experiencing issues because adaptive innovation allows us to do experiments where assessing the relationships between cause and effect is obvious in retrospect. We usually get to conduct experiments that are safe to fail to learn.
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Due to COVID-19, we are regularly operating in a state of Chaos. This is because Chaos is a state when there is no relationship between the cause and effect at a systems level. Dave Snowden says when you're in this state, you've got to be quick and decisive — make little steps you know will succeed, so you can begin to tell a story that makes sense. Acting in this way (Act, Sense, Respond) helps you navigate from a state of Chaos to Complexity. Snowden says you don't deal with the system by creating a future stature; you look at it from the position of knowing what constraints you have. In transactionalism, we call this an assessment of resources. Snowden suggests that modern organisational design recognises that the environment is an emergent property, and there is a time and space for novel practices to emerge. This is where organisations reuse and repurpose existing capability for novel use from non-linear sources. For example, when I started a telehealth business, we didn't have a physical location or full-time medical staff. We created the equivalent of Uber for Doctors, where our customers accessed whoever was available via the app. The constraints of no building or staff made the solution novel in 2013. An antifragile system responds positively to change. While Snowden and Taleb disagree with the definitions, by adopting an antifragility mindset, you can move from a state of Chaos to a state of Complexity by regularly adjusting your tactics. At the same time, you position your organisation for a PostCOVID-19 world. The reality is most organisations are not accustomed to the pace of change required to respond to COVID-19. Nasim Taleb says the fragility of a business or system can be measured; anything that has more downside than upsides from random shocks is antifragile; the reverse is fragile. We want to create an antifragile system because we expect constant change during COVID-19 and beyond; an antifragile system feeds from stress. It drives the business based on change and even facilitates the change from within. If constraints are the key to innovation, COVID-19 is introducing these without choice. The evidence from McKinsey has shown the pandemic has sped up the velocity of the current projects. We also increased our acceptance of failure; thus, enabling our teams to respond to change rapidly. So how do you introduce anti-fragility? If you recall, Taleb outlined that our modern organisations are facing stress starvation - this means that the more starved of volatility a system is, the less likely it is to be prepared for an extreme event like COVID-19. By introducing stress and controlled uncertainty in business systems, we can expose teams to risk safely. We're often not aware of the shortcuts our brain has created; we need to learn how to recognise the cognitive bias and move past it; this can be uncomfortable. After being through one of the most stressful business experiences one can face and losing everything, I have built up a tolerance to
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stress which means I can calm in chaos. Last year while I was riding my skateboard to the office, I encountered a traffic accident. Recognising it was a state of chaos, I assessed the scene and saw one person caring for the accident victims and another on the phone with police and directing traffic. I didn't ask for permission; I took action and told him to step back so I could direct traffic while he spoke to the Police and from that point forward I controlled the scene for two hours. Using stress inoculation21, we can retrain the cognitive bias to appreciate randomness and create new neural pathways. Applying regular and controlled stress to a system will lead to antifragility. The key is to provide positive reinforcement & quick feedback loops. Feedback trains the brain to leverage non‐linearities through experiential learning. This process speeds up the acquisition of knowledge through doing. How do you do this in near real-time when your organisation has never operated in this manner previously. Find out what non traditional resources your organisation already has, and where do you need to supplement antifragility mindsets in business units that fail to adapt at speed?
Stress Inoculation Training in Tactical Strength and Conditioning by Craig Weller TSAC Report April 2013 21
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4.0 How to Take Advantage of a Pandemic One of the main barriers to turning knowledge into action is the tendency to treat talking about something as equivalent to actually doing something about it - Jeffrey Pfeffer. 'Knowledge is the Condition of our Reality; That is our capacity and ability to organise acts' according to the study of Transactionalism from Influence Ecology. This means that to implement new actions, you must articulate an approach to organising resources. While COVID-19 is the perfect environment for companies to introduce an antifragility mindset, Jeffery Pfeffer says that companies have a knowing-doing gap, i.e. a gap between what companies know they should do and what they can do. In his book The Knowing-Doing Gap22, Pfeffer explains that most workplace learning goes on unbudgeted, unplanned, and uncaptured by the organisation. Traditionally, planning can facilitate the development of knowledge and generate action to close these gaps, but we don't have the luxury of time when considering COVID-19 is an unprecedented opportunity or our business is on the verge of collapse. To overcome this disconnect between knowledge and action in the short term, start looking at your internal team for antifragility; leaders can only show up in groups, and those that are naturally moving through your organisation to provide certainty and change your team’s mindsets should be enabled independent of their status in the organisation. In an antifragile organisation, people showing leaderness qualities have naturally already risen to the front; they aren't waiting for the permission of the CEO or the Government to take action. They exhibit traits of wellbeing and their skills have been developed from trauma unrelated to their career that aren’t listed on their CV. Put in place support structures to facilitate change by removing the traditional decision support systems that act as barriers, to enable decentralised decision making and accountability. Link business decisions to the company values, and trust your team to understand their P&L or provide support to increase their financial literacy. To be effective, you need talent who can operate at a level where they embody antifragility characteristics and are comfortable working at an organisational design level. When you expose an environment to stressors, you may need someone to work with the team to determine the pathways forward. It's always slightly The Knowing-Doing Gap: How Smart Companies Turn Knowledge into Action Published by: Harvard Business School Press Release Date: January 15, 2000 22
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uncomfortable to experience growth. It's like building up muscle strength, breaking down the fibres, and the muscle tissue grows. Like in the gym, to do this effectively you need a strength and conditioning coach to oversee your form so you don't injure yourself and hold you accountable for taking the necessary actions to reach the results.
Image 5: Comparing the characteristics of an antifragile organisation with a traditional command and control organisations design, Taleb outlines the traits a modern organisation should adopt to respond to constant change.
Introducing AntiFragility will be financially beneficial. This is a change in mindset that impacts people, culture, processes and intellectual property. As the organisation begins to adapt, self-organisation increases; this reduces the time delay for innovation. The business units in your organisation that adopt a new mindset will become a catalyst for novel innovation. Bringing new talent into your environment will immediately bridge the knowledge gap; this will ignite your organisation. Find people or partners with a passion for creating change, with a sense of purpose, who operate with decentralised decision making and act with accountability; they will provide a cognitive augmentation to your existing team to help evolve your culture. The environment has done the heavy lifting and introduced unintended stress and constraints into your environment. The trends are apparent; the acceleration of office to remote work, from physical stores to digital stores, from global to local artisans, from living central to living rural and from greed to collaboration.
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The sooner you realise that your old business model will not work in a POSTCovid world, the faster you'll be open to disrupting your organisation. Most corporations are still caught in a state of 'acting' like they know everything and treating this situation as a complex problem. COVID-19 is a chaotic problem. Antifragile systems can withstand and benefit from this kind of outlier event and will make exponential gains. Resilient companies gains are measured and capped. You can't plan to navigate the chaos, so embrace it, use conceptual models like Cynefin™ to aid real-time decision-making, to fail fast and act with agility to organise work and action. Become situationally aware of the state of your environment. You can overcome your cognitive bias, recognise you are dealing with chaos, and take action to thrive.
About the Author: Matthew Jackson is a well-known industry disruptor residing in Auckland, New Zealand & Austin, Texas. He has co-founded, built and grown several world-first technology businesses. He is an Edmund Hillary Fellow, Industry Innovation Judge and has decades of experience building socio-technical systems and cultures in the technology industry. Matthew provides Disruption Assurance™: AntiFragility training & executive education to thrive from Chaos; Frameworks that help your teams speed up to adapt to the pace of change & avoid disruption. www.blackswan.nz
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Appendix A - Timeline for Financial Loss - Sky Television Media articles & legal correspondence below evidence the threat Global Mode™ caused to their traditional business model. August 2014 Sky, TVNZ and TV3's owner Mediaworks refused to run ads promoting Slingshot's "Global Mode".
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/business/slingshot -issues-new-tv-ads-6047968.html
August 2015 Sky, Mediaworks, TVNZ and Lightbox gave Bypass Network Services Limited (Holding Company for Global Mode™) an ultimatum. Shut down by 12pm today, or we’re taking you to court.
https://bnsl.wordpress.com/2015/04/19/the-big-med ia-gang-takes-consumer-choice-to-court/
Bypass Network Services Limited sought further clarification from Buddle Findlay, the lawyers acting on behalf of the big media gang.
https://bypass.net.nz/Big_Media_Gang_Letter_2.pdf
1 Sept 2015 - Litigation Stopped
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/global-mode-g oes-dark-broadcasters-win-legal-fight/AJU7CNKUY QCAUQ7WZIK26D72TU/
Though not solely nor directly attributable to Global Mode™ the accelerated convergence of televisions and internet from streaming caused Sky to lose $2.16 NZD Billion in 13 months. Date
Share Price
Total Shares
Market Cap
25 July 2014
$3.67
1,746,879,558
$6,411,047,978
1 September 2015
$2.43
1,746,879,558
$4,244,917,326 -$2,166,130,652
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Appendix B - Desktop Study Dave Snowden Lectures How Leaders Change Culture Through Small Actions 26 July 2016 AcidemiWales https://youtu.be/MsLmjoAp_Dg Embrace Complexity Scale Agility Keynote 16 April 2015 Agile India Conference https://youtu.be/lYlqhvzI_VQ Dealing with unanticipated needs Clojecture Conference 2018 https://youtu.be/xYqWREPb3Lc Complex Adaptive Systems 12 June 2018 DDD Europe Conference https://youtu.be/l4-vpegxYPg
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