Polanyi's Double Movement and Capitalism Today

Polanyi’sDoubleMovementandCapitalismToday

RichardSandbrook

ABSTRACT

WhatisthemostfruitfulconceptualizationofKarlPolanyi’s‘doublemovement’incontemporarycapitaliststudies?ForPolanyi,itisaconceptualdeviceforexplainingaparticularhistoricalsequenceleadingtothecollapse ofWesterncivilizationinthe1930sand1940s.Forhiscurrentfollowers,the doublemovementisofbroaderandlonger-termsignificance.Someconceive itasrepresentingacontinuousandinherentcontradictionwithincapitalism thatcanonlyberesolved,andtheeconomyembeddedinsociety,withthe endofcapitalism.Othersconceiveofthedoublemovementasrepresentinganoscillatingimbalancebetweentheliberalmovementandthecountermovementofsocietalprotection,withtheformer’sascendancyimpellinga disembeddingtendencyandthelatter’sare-embeddingtendency.Thisarticlearguesthatthemostfruitfulapproachistotreatthedoublemovementas atwo-phaseconceptualmodelthathasareal,thoughlimited,heuristicvalue inunderstandingliberal-democraticcapitalistdevelopment.

INTRODUCTION

ForKarlPolanyi,writinginthe1940s,the‘doublemovement’wasaconceptualdeviceforexplainingaparticularhistoricalsequenceleadingtothecollapseofWesterncivilizationinthe1930sand1940s(Polanyi,1944/2001). Forhislatter-dayfollowers,thedoublemovementisofbroaderandlongertermsignificance.1 Someofusconceiveitasrepresentingacontinuousand inherentcontradictionwithincapitalismthatcanonlyberesolved,andthe

Thisarticleevolved,asarticlessometimesdo,fromaresponsetoastudyonthedoublemovementbyGeoffGoodwin(2018).Wediscussedthatarticlebothbeforeandafteritwaspublished. AsaparticipantataBISApanelinmid-2019thatGeofforganized,Icommendedhis2018articleasanoutstandingcontributioninrelatingPolanyi’sdoublemovementtotheglobalSouth. Myowninterests,whichhadtakenanactivistturninthefaceofthegrowingthreatsposedby globalwarmingandnuclearweapons,shiftedtotheglobalNorth.Thus,myarticlehasstrayed farfromitsorigins,withGeoff’sresponsenowacritiqueofmycontributionratherthanarebuttalofmycritique.It’sbeenaninterestingintellectualjourneyforbothofus.

1.Foraperceptivecritiqueofthedoublemovement,seeGoodwin(2018).Goodwin’scritiqueclarifiesandmodifiessomemurkyPolanyianconcepts,suchastheroleofthestate, commodification/decommodificationandcountermovement.Iwillnotbereviewingthese

DevelopmentandChange 0(0):1–29.DOI:10.1111/dech.12699 ©2022InternationalInstituteofSocialStudies.

economyembeddedinsociety,withtheendofcapitalism.Othersviewthe doublemovementasrepresentingashiftingimbalancebetweentheliberal movementandthecountermovementofsocietalprotection.Whiletheascendancyofliberalvaluespromotesadisembeddingtendency,thecountermovementembodiesare-embeddingtendency.Inthisarticle,Icontend thatthemostfruitfulapproachtothedoublemovementistotreatitasa two-phaseconceptualmodelthathasareal,albeitlimited,heuristicvaluein understandingliberal-democraticcapitalistdevelopment.

Theheuristicvalueflowsnotfromadeterministicrelationshipamong variablesthatleadstoaparticularoutcome,suchastheoverthrowofcapitalism.Rather,itderivesfromrelatingconceptsthatmightappearseparate anddistinct,butinrealityinteracttoformasystem(liberal-democraticcapitalism)withcertainpropensities.Contradictionsareinherentinthesystem; thesecontradictionsfosterdisruptivestrainsthattend,intime,toleadtoeconomiccrisisandpoliticalpolarization.Butsuchcrisisandpolarizationmay bedelayedand,iftheyoccur,arenotnecessarilyterminal.Theeconomic andpoliticalcrisismaysimplypersistunresolved;itmaybesuppressedby theactionsofthestate;oritmaybeprovisionallyreconciledthroughasocialaccord.Avariegatedthoughdelimitedsetofcontingenciesshapeactual outcomes.Thus,theheuristicvalueofthemodelliesinalertingtheanalyst toacommonpattern;thedoublemovementindicateswhat might happen, notwhat will happen.

WhenwemovefromPolanyi’soriginalandeconomicalconceptualizationtothecontemporaryapplicationsofthedoublemovement,controversy surfaces.Whilethedisputeisoftencapturedasaconflictbetween‘hard’ and‘soft’interpretations,Iwanttoarguethatthiswayofunderstandingthe optionsismisleadingandshouldbeabandoned.Ratherthanaccepteither thehardformulation,wherebytheeconomyiseitherdisembedded(capitalism)orre-embedded(socialism),orthesoftviewpoint,wherebythedouble movementbecomesmerelyadescriptionofthewaxingandwaningofthe relativepowerofthemovementandcountermovement,weshouldregardthe doublemovementasoccurringintwodiscretephases.Thisreformulationis notanoriginalidea;itisimplicitintheworkofseveralPolanyiansocial scientists.2 Butitneedstobemadeexplicit.ItabandonsthemisleadingbinarynotionofPolanyiaseithersocialistrevolutionaryorsocialdemocrat;it accordswithPolanyi’sdiscussionofthedoublemovement;andithasthe heuristicadvantageofallowingcomparisonsofeventsandprocessesacross thetwophases.Comparisonscanyieldinsightsintoongoingconflictsand thepoliticsofthepossible.Iillustratethelatterpointbysketchingsome

conceptsinanydepthhere;instead,Ifocusonthelogicofthedoublemovementwhen viewedasamodel.

2.See,forexample,Andreottietal.(2018);Brie(2017);Dale(2010:Ch.6);Halperin(2018); LevienandParet(2012);Mingione(2018).

similaritiesanddifferencesbetweenthetwoepisodesofthedoublemovement.

DISPUTINGTHE‘HARD’VERSUSTHE‘SOFT’INTERPRETATIONSOF THEDOUBLEMOVEMENT

Allconceptionsofthedoublemovementasacontinuousprocess,whether ofthehardorsoftvariety,runcontrarytoPolanyi’simplicitposition thatthedoublemovementisdiscontinuous.In TheGreatTransformation (1944/2001),Polanyinotablyreferstoitinthepasttense.Theriseoftheliberalmovementintheearlydecadesofthe19thcenturyspontaneouslyproducedacountermovement.Butthecontradictorydoublemovementendedin adeadlockin1929–31betweenindustry(themovement)andtheliberaldemocraticstate(thecountermovement).Financialcrisisandtheendof thegoldstandardinBritainandothercountries,togetherwithexchange controlsandotherregulations,undercuttheself-regulatingmarketmechanism,butwithoutreplacingthemarketwithplanning(exceptinRussia). Neitherthelogicofthemarketnorregulationandplanningprevailed.With widespreadeconomicdysfunctionintheGreatDepression,alternativesolutionsviedforinfluence.Direeconomiccircumstancesbroughtfascism tothefore(Polanyi,1944/2001:Chs1and20).PolanyimentionsStalinistcollectivizationandcentralplanningandRoosevelt’sNewDealasother prominentresponses.Polanyiseemstounderstandthedoublemovementas aprocessthatendswithstalemateandtheclashofcontendingsolutions.3 However,Polanyi’streatmentisnotnecessarilydefinitiveforcontemporaryreaders.ThesoftinterpretationrepresentsPolanyiasasocialdemocrat, withthedoublemovementservingtomoderateandregulatetheexcesses ofuntrammelledmarketcapitalism.AsGarethDalepointsout,onecan findin TheGreatTransformation evidencetosupportthisinterpretation. Polanyiconveysthenotion,atcertainpointsinhisanalysis,thatparliamentarydemocracy,overtime,cantamecapitalism(Dale,2010:376–80).The readercangaintheimpressionthatregulation,togetherwithredistribution, cansuffice,evenifmarketsinfictitiouscommoditiesremainintact.However,thisinterpretationfliesinthefaceofotherevidencethatPolanyiwas acommitteddemocraticsocialist,includingthetestimoniesofhisdaughter andhiswife(seePolanyi-Levitt,2013).Arelated,contemporaryconceptualizationconvertsthedoublemovementintoamerelydescriptivedevice recordingthewaxingandwaningoftherelativepowerofthemovementand countermovementwithincapitalism—the‘oscillation’model.4 Polanyihad moreinmind,however,thantrackingsuchoscillations.

3.Onthisinterpretation,seeBrie(2017:16–17and passim).

4.Foracritiqueofthe‘oscillation’conceptualization,seeDale(2012).

ThehardinterpretationofPolanyi’sintentionsconceivesthedoublemovementasacontinuousprocessthatendsonlywiththedemiseofcapitalism.5 Regardlessofthemeasurestakentodecommodify‘fictitiouscommodities’ (land,labourandmoney)withincapitalism,thecontradictionbetweenthe movementandcountermovementremainsunresolved.Onlytheabolitionof land,labourandmoneymarketsviaademocratic-socialisttransformation overcomesthiscontradiction.Ittakesarevolutiontore-embedeconomyin societyandbringanendtothedoublemovement.

ScholarsdisputePolanyi’spositionpartlybecausehehadlittletosay aboutsocialismafterheleftViennaintheearly1930s.Hewaspreoccupiedwithdefeatingfascisminthe1930sandearly1940s,andlater,livingin theUnitedStates,inhibitedfromembracingsocialismbyColdWarcaricaturesof,andhostilitytoward,socialists. TheGreatTransformation devotes aboutonepagetothediscussionofsocialism,togetherwithabrief,though powerful,concludingreflectiononfreedom.Thelatter,however,focuses oncounteringbothFriedrichHayek’sviewthatfreedomwaspossibleonly inmarketsociety,andtheMarxianviewthatfreedomultimatelyimplies thewitheringawayofcoercion.‘TheCommonMan’sMasterplan’(Polanyi, 1943/2017)doesnotevendiscusssocialism.Nevertheless,thetestimonyof thoseclosesttoPolanyi,togetherwithhisownrecord,suggestthatPolanyi wasindeedasocialist.6

Buthewasalsoagradualist.Hewasnotarevolutionary,inthesenseof aproponentofviolentorrapidtransformation,norwasheareformercontentwiththeattainmentofthesocial-democraticwelfarestate.Hebelieved inthetransformationofmarketsociety,thoughitwouldbeadrawn-out process.7 FredBlock,aleadingauthorityonPolanyiananalysis,usesterms suchas‘experimental’,‘incremental’and‘multi-levelcontestation’todescribePolanyi’sapproach(Block,2016).Socialism,forPolanyi,isaprocess‘totranscendtheself-regulatingmarketbyconsciouslysubordinating ittoademocraticsociety’(Polanyi,1944/2001:264).Polanyibelievesthat democracy(asinliberaldemocracy)couldpossiblytransformcapitalism, asuniversalsuffrageandgrowingunionstrengthshiftedpowertoworking people(Dale,2010:389–90).Polanyiwasthusapragmatist.Hisapproachis similartothatofsuchcontemporarysocialistsasMichaelHarrington,who locatedhimselfonthe‘left-wingofthepossible’(Harrington,1972),and AndréGorz(1967),whoreferredto‘non-reformistreformism’asthesort ofreformsthatcumulativelytransformthecapitalistsystem.Transformationwouldbeachievedinincrementalsteps,graduallyfortifyingdemocratic

5.ExponentsofthehardinterpretationincludeGoodwin(2018);Lacher(1999);PolanyiLevitt(2013).Dale(2016:4–7)reviewsthehardversussoftdistinctionatlength.

6.Foranauthoritativeaccount,seeBrie(2017:11,26–28).

7.Block(2018)makesthispointinacarefulreconstructionofwhatsocialismmeantfor Polanyi.

controlsoverthemarket.Thehardinterpretationfailstocapturethissubtle stance.

Embeddedness,inshort,isnotturnedeitheronoroff.Thehardinterpretationpointstoabasiccontradictionwithincapitalism.Butcontradictions maybeassuaged:throughaccordsorsocialpactsthattemporarilyreconcileprofitabilitywithreducingincome/wealthinequalitiesandachievinga degreeofdecommodificationofland,labourandmoney.TheKeynesianaccordstabilizedcapitalismforthreedecades(1945–75)throughthemanagementofeffectivedemand,hightaxestosupportsocialservicesandsocial protection,labourmarketadjustmentstothebenefitoflabourand—centrally—controlsoncapitalmovements(Helleiner,2006).Itusheredinmass consumersocietiesandenhancedequality,bothofwhichbenefitedworking people.8 Thewelfarestateandregulationdecommodifiedlabour,landand moneytoadegree,relativetotheearliereraortheneoliberalage.

Embeddedness/disembeddednessisavagueconcept.Embeddingthe economyinvolveslimitingandultimatelyeliminatingthecapacityofmarket imperativestoshapesociety.Decommodification,bylimitingandassuaging marketforces,andby‘fencingoff’activities(forexample,healthcare)from marketsaltogether,reducestheswayofmarkets.Logically,embeddedness existsindegrees.Inagradualist,stagedtransitiontosocialism,wewould expecttofindprocessesofpartiallyre-embeddingeconomyinsociety.

THEDOUBLEMOVEMENTASATWO-STAGEMODEL

Nopredictivemodelofcapitalisttransformationexists,orislikelyto emerge,simplybecausecapitalismistoocomplex,variegatedandsubject tocontingenciestobecapturedbyanytheory.Butwecandeviseaconceptualmodelthataidsourunderstandingofevolvingmarketsystemsby referencetocertaininherentcontradictionsandprocesses.

Themodeltellsuswhatmighthappeninliberaldemocracies,byreferencetotheoriginalphaseofthedoublemovement.Theinitialsequence wasmovement–countermovement–disruptivestrains–stalemateandeconomiccrisis–polarizationandideologicalcontention–systemicchange.Of thesesequences,onlythemovement–countermovement–disruptivestrains seriesispredictable.Theremainderoftheoriginalsequence(stalemateand economiccrisis–politicalpolarizationandcontentionamongsolutions–systemicchange)mayoccurinwholeorinpart,dependingoncontingent conditions.Adeadlockbetweenthemovementandcountermovementmay notdevelop,asthecountermovementistooweakorinepttoforcetheissue. Theremaystillbeaneconomiccrisis,butitmaynotproduceapoliticalcrisisaswell.Thedoublemovementmaythereforenotend.Insteadofreaching

8.Althoughracismandpatriarchywouldrequireseparatestrugglestobeovercome,andcarbonemissionssteadilyincreased.

afranticclashofalternativesolutions,theongoingcrisismayfesterwithoutadefinitiveresolutionorbeprovisionallyresolvedthroughanaccordor socialpact.9 Thelattermitigatesthebasiccontradiction,eithertemporarily orasasteptowardsocialisttransformation.Re-embedding,inthiscase,is partialandreversible.Thus,themodelsuggestswherewemightfruitfully lookforanexplanationofcapitalistchangeandtransformation;itisarough guide,notablueprint.

Thecontingentconditionsshapingoutcomesaremultiple,thoughtheir relationshipisimplicitlyorganizedinaPolanyianapproach.‘Opportunity structure’,aconceptdevelopedbyFredBlockandMargaretSomers(2016: 68–71),drawsoutofPolanyi’sworkalooseframeworkfororganizingthe analysisofhistoricalcases.Itfocusesourattentionupontheinterrelationshipamongthreelevelsofanalysis,withoutanysinglelevelbeingdeterminative:theinternationaleconomicregime(which,inPolanyi’sview,is closelylinkedtothegeopoliticalbalanceofpower),nationalstateaction, andthepoliticalstrugglesofnationallybasedsocialforces.AsBlockand Somers(2016:69)putit,‘[p]articularmomentsintheorganizationofthe internationaleconomicregimeprovideuniqueopportunitiesforstatestoact. Atthesetimes,itisthedegreeoflatitudeopentothestatethatinturnshapes thespectrumofpossibleactionsforsocietalstruggles’.Theglobaleconomic andpoliticalopportunitystructurethusconstrainswhatnationalstatescan achieve;butdomesticclassandgroupstrugglesarealsoimportantinunderstandinghistoricaloutcomes.Thissubtleandorganizedcomplexityoffers nokeytounlockthepuzzlesofcapitalistdevelopment;however,itprovides aroughguideinassessingthescopeforpoliticalagencyataparticularhistoricaljuncture.Themodelshowsus—theanalystandthepoliticalactivist alike—wheretolookfortheprincipalstructuralconstraintsandhowto understandtherelationshipsbetweenthem,butwithoutassigningprimacy toanyonelevelofanalysis.Wecanrealisticallyaskfornomore.10

Oneimportantcontingency,whichPolanyiignores,isthedegreeofunity andorganizationachievedbyelementsofthecountermovement(thethird levelofanalysis).Polanyiinsistedthatonlytheliberalmovementwas planned,withthecountermovementa spontaneous reactionof‘society’to marketexcesses.Thisorganicconceptionofsocietyhasbeensubjectedto considerablecriticism(e.g.Evans,2015;Halperin,2004;Levien,2018).The principalcriticismisthatsomeclasses(forinstance,theworkingclass)reactedmorestronglytomarketoppressivenessthanothers,andweremore effectiveintheiroppositionowingtotheircollectiveconsciousnessandorganization(Halperin,2018).Today,asPeterEvansshows,theorganizational andideologicalhurdlestoachievingunityamongdiverseprogressiveforces

9.Luebbert(1991:312)elaboratesinsightfullyonthenatureofaccords.

10.Foranelaborationofopportunitystructuresandtheiranalyticalutility,seeSandbrook (2014:112–23).

onanational and atransnationalbasisallowsglobalneoliberalismtopersist (Evans,2015).

Alcock(2021)hasrecentlyreprisedPolanyi’sorganicconceptionofthe countermovement,contendingthatthisisthedefinitiveinterpretation.For Alcock,thecountermovementisalwaysanunconsciousandspontaneous responseofsocietytothedamagesunleashedbytheliberalmovement.By ‘unconscious’,hemeansthatthosewhoreacthavenoclearideaofwhat causestheirsuffering.Theliberalmovement,incontrast,isconscious,usingthestatetoinstituteamarketeconomy.Whenelementsofthecountermovementbecome‘conscious’,Alcockclaims,theyevolveintoideological movementsandthecountermovementtherebydissolves.Polanyididadopt spontaneityasthehallmarkofthecountermovement.Hetherebynegated Hayek’sfamousclaimthattheGreatDepressionwascaused,notbymarketdysfunction,butbyanorganizedleftistconspiracyagainsttheselfregulatingmarket.Regardlessofmotivations,Alcock’sandPolanyi’sdichotomousconceptionisnottenable.Classconsciousnessoftheworking classandlandlordsdevelopedinthemid-19thcenturyinBritainandother industrializingEuropeancountries(Halperin,2004).Wewouldhavetoconclude,followingAlcock,thatthedoublemovementpeteredoutlongbefore theGreatDepression,withthedevelopmentofsocialistideologiesinthelast halfofthe19thcentury.ButPolanyi’sownviewisthatthedoublemovement endedabout1930,withstalemate,polarizationandclashingalternatives. Consciousnessisnot,however,abinarynotion.AsLenin(1902/1961) famouslynotedregardingtheworkingclassin‘WhatIsToBeDone’,‘there isspontaneityandspontaneity’.Onlywithsomeawarenessofthecausesof societalandnaturaldisruptioncananyeffectiveorganizedresponsearise. Thereare degrees ofgroupconsciousness.

Myclaim,takingthisorganizationaldimensionintoaccount,isthatdividingthedoublemovementintotwophaseshasheuristicvalue.WecancomparethephasethatPolanyianalyses(1830s–1931)withtheneoliberalphase (late1970suntiltoday).Inthefirstphase,theKeynesianwelfarestate,controlsonfinancialflowsandmassconsumerismmutedthetensionbetween themovementandthecountermovementfollowingWorldWarII;however, theriseofneoliberalismsincethelate1970sreactivatedthedoublemovement.Recommodification—theerosionofthewelfarestate,theriseof precariousemployment,capitalmarketandbankingderegulation,andthe treatmentofnatureasastoreofcommoditiesandasinkforpollution—exposedsocietiestothedireeffectsofuntrammelledmarkets.11 Onceagain, economicimperativesshapedsocietyandnature,instigatingacountermovement.Heuristically,thisdivisionintotwophasespromptstheanalysttoask questions,pursuelinesofanalysis,andorganizeongoingdebatesthathelp

11.RefertoAndreottietal.(2018)andMingione(2018)foranextendedanalysisofthedouble movementinourage.

usunderstandourcurrentepochandthinkthroughthepossibilitiesforhopefuloutcomes.

Thedoublemovement,toreiterate,isnotadeterministictheory.The modelpositsaninherenttensionbetweenthemovementandthecountermovement,whichintimeproducescharacteristicdisruptivestrains.Yet thesestrainsdonotnecessarilyleadtoadeadlockbetweenthemovement andthecountermovement,severeeconomiccrisis,theclashbetweenfascistandsocialistalternatives,andsystemicchange.Prolongedstagnation andconflictorasocialaccordmaybetheprovisionaloutcomeofthedoublemovement.Thesocialforcescomprisingthecountermovementandtheir degreeoforganizationwillhaveamajorbearingonoutcomes.Themodelis heuristicinsuggestinglinesofinquiryintothedevelopmentofcapitalism, whileavoidingteleologybyrecognizingtheimportantroleofcontingencies.

AlthoughItakeupthechallengeofsketchingthisheuristicvalue,Irun theriskofoversimplifyingcomplexprocesses.Polanyineeded317pagesto analysethefirstdoublemovementanditsaftermath.Yettheproofofanhistoricalmodelliesinhistory.Despitetherisks,Iprovideabrief,suggestive interpretationoftheseconddoublemovement.Ifocusonthecasesofthe UnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom,althoughtheanalysisappliesmore generally.Iaimonlytostimulatedebateandcontroversy,nottobedefinitive.

DOUBLEMOVEMENTSCOMPARED

Neoliberalism,likeliberalismacenturyearlier,embracedtheidealofthe self-regulatingmarketatthenationalandgloballevelsand,likeliberalism earlier,employedthestatetodisembedeconomyfromsociety.12 Thecontemporarydoublemovementhasmovedthroughthesequenceofmovement –countermovement–disruptivestrains,butthesestrainshavenotculminatedinstalemateoreconomicandpoliticalcrisisofthescaleofthe1930s. Abriefcomparativeanalysisofthetwophasesfollows,leadingtosome thoughtsonthesimilarityofdisruptivestrainsandonemergingtrendsin thedoublemovement.

TheGreatRecessionof2007–09isoftencompared,initsseverity,to thecrashof1929anditsaftermath.TheGreatDepression,accordingto Polanyi,reflectedastalematebetweenthemovementandthecountermovementfollowingdecadesofcumulativedisruptivestrains.Thestalemate,and theeconomicparalysisthatensued,broughtanendtothedoublemovement; itwasreplacedbytumultuouscontentionamongideologicalalternativesand systemicchangeintheformoffascismandbureaucraticcollectivism.In contrast,the2007–09crashresultedfromtheexcessiveexuberanceofunleashedfinancialspeculation,notadeadlockbetweenthemovementand

12.Thereisnospacetosummarizethewell-knownhistoryofneoliberalism;seeHarvey(2005) foranoverview.

countermovement.Recklessandself-serving‘deregulation’ofcapitalcrossbordermovementsandnationalbankingledtoworthlessderivativesandfalteringbanks.13 Theprogressiveelementofthecountermovementwasunable effectivelytorespondtoacrisisproducedbythespeculativerecommodificationof money.Instead,theliberalmovementprecipitatedthecrisis,andthen avoidedstructuralchangebypiecingtogetherpalliativemeasures.Governmentsrescuedthebankersandlargecorporations,easedmonetarypolicy tospreadmoneyaround,andeventuallyhadrecoursetoausteritypolicies topaythebills.Neoliberalismsurvived—albeitdiscreditedintheeyesof thosewholosttheirhomes,jobs,orsavings(Crouch,2011).Progressives didnotassembleacredible‘revolutionaryreformist’policyparadigmto challengeneoliberalismandfinancialization.

Since2009,thecrisishasfestered.Financialinstability(assetbubbles, heavyhouseholdandpublicdebt),growinginequalitieswithdeindustrializationandprecariouslivelihoods,andclimatechange—eachreflecting oneofPolanyi’s‘fictitiouscommodities’—representthethreedimensions ofsystemiccrisis(Fraser,2014).Disillusionmentbredtoxicpoliticsas nativist-populistleaders,masqueradingaspartofthecountermovement, blamedcorruptelites,migrants,foreignersandhyper-globalizationforthe dislocations.

Inresponse,asprotests,inequalityandanti-democratictendenciesspread globally,aprogressivecountermovementhasdevelopedatthelevelof bothideasandorganization.ConceptionsofadecentralizedanddemocraticsocialismhaveflourishedasthinkershaveabandonedreformistThird WayapproachesandLeninistvanguardismalike.‘GreenNewDeals’or ‘JustTransition’,bothdiscussedbelow,seemtobeemergingastheoverarchingandunifyingideal.Andcomplementaritiesamongdisparateelementsofthecountermovementareforgingan‘offensive’countermovement. Civilsociety,notapoliticalparty,isincommand.14 Theemergenceof nativist/populistmovementsandtherejuvenationoftheprogressivecountermovementbeararesemblancetotheoriginalconflictbetweenfascismandsocialismthatPolanyiwitnessed.Meanwhile,thepandemicof 2020–21raisedtensionsfurther,asitsunfoldingunveiledtheinsecurities,

13.Thecrashof2008wasprecipitatedbyspeculativemania,butthisepisodewasonlythe worstofthecrisesbroughtonbythecommodificationofmoneyintheformofderivatives. ItwasprecededintheUSbytheUS$5trilliondotcombubblein2002,anditwasfollowedbytheUS$1trillionFlashCrashof2010.CountriesoftheglobalSouthsuffereda seriesoffinancialdisastersfollowingtheliberalizationofbankingandcapitalmovements (Sandbrook,2014:67–72).Theseepisodesconfirmthesocietalfollyoftreatingmoneyasa commodity.

14.IntheUS,theDemocraticadministrationofPresidentJoeBidenisthemostprogressive sincetheNewDeal,thoughtensionsremainbetweentheorganizationsofthedemocratic leftandaDemocraticPartythathasfordecadestakenacentristposition.IntheUK,the LabourPartyundertheaccommodatingKeirStarmersince2020isbeingpushedby,not leading,theprogressivecountermovement.

inequalitiesandracialinjusticesthatmorenormaltimesobscured.The endgameofthedoublemovementmaybeinsight.

Beforefocusingoncontemporarydevelopments,weneedtobriefly reckonwith‘disruptivestrains’.Recommodification,andthesocietalreactiontoit,fosteredtheaccumulationofstrains,someofwhichresemble thosePolanyianalysesin TheGreatTransformation (1944/2001:Ch.18). HeclaimsthataccumulatingstrainsledtothecollapseofWesternmarket civilization.Thecontradictionbetweenmarketexpansionandsocialprotectiontookthreespecificforms.Thefirstcontradictionoccurredatthenationallevel.Theidealoftheself-regulatingmarketrequiredtheseparation ofpoliticsfromeconomics,sothatthemarketeconomycouldfollowits ownlawsofmotion.Buttheexpansionofthefranchise,togetherwiththe inevitabledamagewroughtbyuntrammelledmarkets,destroyedsuchanartificialseparation.Electedgovernmentssought,quitereasonably,‘torehabilitatethelivesofmenandtheirenvironment’throughregulation(Polanyi, 1944/2001:225).Yettheeffectwastointerferewiththepricemechanism throughadhocregulationwithoutreplacingthelogicofthemarketbythat ofplanning.Thistugofwarbetweenmarketandpoliticallogicshadpotentiallydireeconomicconsequences.Thesecondstrainpittedeconomicnationalism,especiallyinhardtimes,againsttheidealofglobalmarketsbased onfreetradeandthegoldstandard.Nationalgovernmentshadrecourse toprotectionismtodefendnationalpopulationsagainstunstableorbiased globalmarkets.Yetsuchmovesbykeygovernmentsunderminedtheedifice ofglobalcommerce,tothedetrimentofall.Thefinalstrainarosefrom‘imperialistrivalries’(ibid.:218).Fromthemid-19thcentury,theGreatPowers competedtoestablishprotectedspheresintheglobalSouthfortheirownnationalcompanies.AccordingtoPolanyi,thisrivalryformonopolisticmarketaccessandrawmaterialsthreatenedtodeteriorateintowaranddestroy theglobaleconomy.Theaccumulationofthesestrainsultimatelyproduced WorldWarIandanimpasseinthe1930s,whenrevolutionaryandcounterrevolutionarytendenciesviedfordominance.

Imperialistrivalries,thenational-leveltensionbetweenmarketexpansion andsocialprotectionism,andtheclashbetweentheidealoffreeglobalmarketsandtherealityofeconomicnationalisminhardtimes—allthesedisruptivestrainshaveappearedintheseconddoublemovement.Anadequate analysiscannotbeprovidedwithinthescopeofashortarticle;letusinsteadconsiderjustafewsimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweenstrainsinthe twophases.Imperialismhaschangedinform.Indirectcontrolorinformal empireisnowthenorm,ratherthanthedirectcontrolofcoloniesaswas widelypractisedduringthefirstdoublemovement.15 USdefeatsatnation buildinginVietnam,IraqandAfghanistansupportthisgeneralization.There isnocontemporarycounterparttotheScrambleforAfricaofthelate19th

15.Kohli(2020)providesanexhaustiveanalysisoftheoldandthenewimperialism.

century.Theclashbetweenmarketexpansionandsocialprotectionisunique toeachcountry,withavariablewaningofthewelfarestateandvariationin thestrugglestotreatwater,education,sanitationandhousingasmerecommoditiesorpublicgoods.Thethirdtension—betweentheidealoffree marketsandtheresorttoeconomicnationalism—hascometotheforein thepastdecade.ThestrainisepitomizedbythetradewarsandtensionsinstigatedbyPresidentTrump,especiallywithChina,butinalesserwaywith EuropeandCanada,aswellastheBritishstruggleoverBrexit.Imperialist pretensions,increasinginsecurityandtheriseofnationalismandjingoism providefertilesoilfortheriseandradicalizationofthecountermovement —byboththeRightandtheLeft.

Disruptivestrainshaveresurfacedandfestered.However,theyhavenot yetledtoastalemate.Thelatterwouldentailbothaneconomythatceases tofunctionandpoliticalturmoil.Polanyifamouslycharacterizedthestalemateoftheearly1930saspittingindustry(thebulwarkoftheliberalmovement)againsttheliberal-democraticstate(asultimatelyresponsivetothe numericallyinfluentialcountermovement).Thischaracterization,ofcourse, wasonlyaheuristicshorthandforamorecomplicatedconfigurationofsocialforces.But,inthecurrentneoliberalera,stateaswellasindustryhave, byandlarge,respondedto,orembodied,theliberalmovement;plutocracy becamethenormintheeraoffinancialization.Thisascendancyofplutocracywasrecognizedevenbydissentingmainstreameconomists(see,for example,Milanovic,2019).Astheplutocracyprevailed,theeconomydid function,thoughpoorlyandunfairly,dependentonheavycentralbankintervention.In2007–09,theprogressivecountermovementlackedtheunity, thepopularsupport,andtherealisticalternativepoliciestochallengethe liberalnarrative.

Why?Attheinternationallevelofanalysis,hyper-globalizationsincethe late1980srestrictedthepolicyautonomyofnationalgovernments(thesecondlevelofanalysis)whichinturnpresented(atthethirdlevel)acomplex strategic/politicalsituationforthenewsetofsocialforcesthatemerged underneoliberalism.Hyper-globalization,buttressedbythepowerofthe UnitedStatesastheworld’sonlysuperpower,wasmanifestparticularlyin capitalaccountandbankingsectorliberalizationincountriessubjecttothe influenceoftheUS,theInternationalMonetaryFundandtheWorldBank. Highlymobilecapitalpunishedunorthodoxmonetary,fiscalandsocialpolicy.Theworldwidediffusionofthemarketmentalityalsoreinforcedthe positionoftheliberalmovement,bothnationallyandinternationally.And theshiftingcompositionofthecountermovement,togetherwiththestrategicfailuresofleft-orientedpoliticalparties,haveimpactedtheprogressive countermovement,asthepowerofnativist-populismroseinthe21stcentury.Havingalreadyalludedtotheinternationallevel,Iturnbrieflytothe others.

Themarketmentalityismoredeeplyandwidelyentrenchedthanacenturyearlier.Thecollapseofcommunism,thedisplacementofpeasantsby

commercialfarmersandagribusinessworldwide,andthecommodification ofeverythinghavespreadtheethicofpossessiveindividualismtoevery corneroftheworld.16 Neoliberalismhasthustakenrootinthepolitically influentialentrepreneurialandmiddleclasseseverywhere,providingjustificationforendlessaccumulationandconsumerism.Theliberalmovement globallyhasbeenfortified.

Inaddition,thecompositionofthenationallybasedcountermovement hasshiftedinwaysthatmadeacommonprogressivefrontdifficulttoattain.Insum,theorganizedindustrialworkingclassshrankinrelativesize andinfluence,whilea‘precariat’expandedinsize,environmentalists,albeit ideologicallydiverse,respondedmilitantlytothedevastatingcommodificationofnature,andidentitymovementsbasedonrace,ethnicityandgender rosetothefore.Thisheterogeneity,combinedwiththedeclineofthelabour movement,posedproblemsofunityinpressingaprogressiveagenda,asthe disruptivestrainsofcontradictoryprocessesdrovethemarketsystemcloser tobreakdown.Inaddition,globalizationinthe1980sand1990slimitednationalpolicyautonomy.17 Realistically,thecountermovementhadtooperate atglobalaswellasnationallevelstoaddressthetransnationaldimensionsof climatecrisis,precarityandinequality.Intheearlierera,Polanyiconceived ofthedoublemovementasoperatingonlyatthenationallevel,eventhough heunderstoodtheimportanceofinternationalfactors(thebalanceofpower system,thegoldstandard,freetrade).Bridgingthelocal,nationalandglobal levelsofopposition,today,isacomplexchallenge.

Concerningclasscomposition,workhasbeentransformedsincePolanyi’s time.Globalfreetradeagreements,theliberalizationofcapitalmovements, automationandartificialintelligence,andtheliberalprescriptionof‘flexible’labourmarketshave,incombination,wroughtmajorchanges.The ‘knowledgeeconomy’,aspromotedbyTonyBlair,BillClintonandGerhardSchröderinthe1990s,wastoutedasbringingthebenefitsoffreemarketsandglobalizationtoeveryonewillingtoworkhardorinnovate.18 Major investmentsinpubliceducation,financedbyhighertaxes,itwasclaimed, wouldcreatealevelplayingfieldinwhichthemostadeptwouldmove ahead,expandtheeconomyandgeneratejobs.Butresultsdidnotmatchthe rhetoric.Flexiblelabourmarkets,weakerunionsandeconomicopenness insteadledtorisinginequality.19 Agloballaboursurplusledtopolarizationofincomesasjobsinhigh-paidknowledgeandfinancialsectorswere

16.Polanyi’s(1947)reflectionsonthenatureandconsequencesofthemarketmentalityremain pertinent.

17.Evans(2015)refutesthenotionthatnationalstateslackanypolicyautonomyowingto globalization,butheallowsthatthescopeisoftenlimitedandtheobstaclestounitingthe globalandnationalcountermovementsaresubstantial.

18.O’Donovan(2020)analysestherhetoricandthecontraryrealityofthe‘knowledgeeconomy’asautomationandtheapplicationofartificialintelligencetookhold.

19.Basedonnewdatafor1981–2012,Sungetal.(2021)findthattheratioofwagestocorporateprofitssharplydeclinedtothedetrimentofworkers.

outnumberedbylow-paidandprecariousservice-sectorjobs.Theadmission ofChinatotheWorldTradeOrganizationin2001addedhalfabillionskilled andsemi-skilledworkerstogloballabourmarkets.Growingcompetitionled tocost-cuttingandmovingproductiontoChina,Vietnamandotheremergingeconomies.Millionsofwell-paidmanufacturingjobsinNorthAmericaandEuropewerelost;inaddition,artificialintelligenceisdisplacing arapidlygrowingnumberofprofessional,administrativeandblue-collar jobs.20 AlthoughtradeuniondensityheldupinmostoftheNordiccountries, itfelldrasticallyinmostotherWesterncountries(plungingby2018toonly 10percentintheUS,23percentintheUKand26percentinCanada).21 Thus,thestrengthoforganizedlabourdwindledwhereneoliberalismheld greatestsway,asfallingnumbersoforganizedworkersreflectedanti-union legislationandjudicialdecisions.Inthemeantime,the‘gig’economyand the‘precariat’haveexpanded(Standing,2014).

Theprecariatisfullycommodified.Itincludes,accordingtoGuyStanding(ibid.),thoseininsecure,poorlyremuneratedlabourwithfewnonwagebenefitsandtypicallywithrelativelyhighdebtloads.Tomakematters worse,governmentsintheUSandUKhavenotprovidedadequateretrainingandassistanceprogrammesfordisplacedworkers.22 Theunemployed havelargelybeenlefttoshiftforthemselves.

Standing’srecentwork(2021)emphasizesthattheprecariatisnotaselfconsciousclass.Instead,itcomprisesthreeelementswithdivergentand sometimesanomicpoliticalorientations.Theprecariat,inStanding’swords, isthecontemporary‘dangerousclass’thatMarxlongagoalludedto.Racializedminoritiesconstituteonelargesegment.Feelingsofdisenfranchisement andmarginalizationengenderangerandoccasionalrebellion,alongwith antipathyforfascist/nativistappeals.BlackLivesMatter,discussedfurther below,isacaseinpoint.Duringthepandemic,membersofthissegment, designatedas‘essentialworkers’intheservicesector,suffereddisproportionatelyfromCOVID-19infectionsanddeaths.

Less-educatedwhites,nostalgicforaneraofsecure,workingclassand white-collarjobsandforestablishedracialandgenderhierarchies,forma secondsectionoftheprecariat.Manypeopleexperiencedourtimes,well

20.SeeSchatskyetal.(2016)foradetailedsurveyofthetypesandextentofjoblossesowing toautomation.

21.‘TradeUnionDataset’;stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TUD(accessed14 November,2021).

22.TheUShasaconfusingarrayofjobretrainingschemesscatteredthroughoutthecountry,withnocentralizedcoordinationorinformation.In2021,ayearintothepandemic, 11millionAmericanswereoutofwork,yetfewresourcesareavailableforpreparingthe unemployeddespiteacceleratingautomation.TheUSspendsjust0.11percentofGDP onworkforcedevelopment(Prester,2021).TheConservativegovernmentintheUKannouncedaNationalRetrainingSchemein2019,butinitialresultsfrompilotprojectsare meagre.AdvancedLearnerloansarealsoavailabletoqualifiedapplicantswhoarewilling totakeondebt(Fearn,2019).

beforethepandemic,asanageofeconomicinsecurity,bleakprospectsand statusreversal.CaseandDeaton(2020)haveexploredthe‘epidemicofdespair’intheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom.Theypointtothedeteriorationofwhiteworkingclasswaysoflife,mostprominentlywherewelfarestatesareweakest.Thelesseducated,inparticular,havesufferedthe evaporationofgoodjobsforthereasonsadducedearlier,andaperceived lossofstatus.Majorindicatorsofdespairincludefamilybreakdownand declininglifeexpectanciessince2015.Earlydeathsstemfromdrugoverdoses,alcoholicliverdisease,obesityandsubstanceabuseleadingtodeath fromheartdisease,andfinallysuicide.Thus,theillsthathadlongafflicted blackworkingclasscommunitiesnowencompasshollowed-outwhiteworkingclasscommunitiesaswell.Thegrowinginsecurityandangerhave,however,benefitedtheRightratherthantheLeft.23 Evenamongthewhitemiddleclasses,insecurityandprecarityhavegrownwithautomation,outsourcingandprivatization.Nativist-populistsexploitthiswidespreadeconomic andculturalinsecurity,togetherwithlatentracism,forelectoralgain.The senseofbeingleftbehindrenderspeoplesusceptibletopopulistappealsto bringback‘greatness’(‘TakeBackControl’,‘MakeAmericaGreatAgain’).

Progressivesformthethirdandfinalsegmentoftheprecariat(Standing, 2021)—theyoung,relativelywelleducated,employedorself-employed whofacehighdebts,insecurelivelihoodsandafuturecloudedbyclimate crisis.Immunetofascistandracistappeals,thisurban-basedgroupisattractedtoanti-capitalistpolitics.Theyrejectthevastinequalitiesbequeathed tothembyneoliberalism—anoppositionmanifestinthecentralityofyouth intheanti-globalizationprotestssince1999,theworldwidespreadofOccupyWallStreetfrom2011,24 andtheBlackLivesMatterprotestsin2019–20.TheyarethekernelofthenewLeft.

Anothernovelelementinthecountermovementthistimeismovements forracialandgenderjustice.ConsiderthestrikingimpactintheUnited StatesandothermultiracialsocietiesofBlackLivesMatter(BLM).The policekillingofAfro-AmericanGeorgeFloydinMay2019precipitated awaveofmonths-longprotestsworldwidethatincludedwhite,aswellas black,participation.BLMmadedemands,notjustforreformingpolicedepartments,butforstructuralchange.‘Defundthepolice’focusesdemands notjustonweedingoutafewracistpolicemenbutforgingnewstructuresto endsystemicracism.‘Cancelrent’devolvedintoademandtoregardhousingasasocialright,notacommodity.Thecritiqueextendedtomilitarism ingeneral,notjustofthepoliceforces.Ominously,andconfirmingthestatusoftheprecariatasthedangerousclass,militiasarmedwithassaultrifles appearedattheralliesintheUSA.Mostofthemwereconservativemilitias

23.Foranextendedanalysis,seeSandbrook(2016).

24.AlthoughneithertheglobaljusticemovementnorOccupyachievedsignificantpoliticalvictories,theydidforgeanewanti-capitalistidentityamonghundredsofthousandsofpeople worldwide.SeeWinant(2021).

(forexample,the15,000-strongUtahCitizensAlarm),whoaimedtointimidateprotestersanddetervandalism;others(forexample,InsurgenceUSA) armedthemselvestoprotectprotestersfromattacksfromtheRight(Okorea, 2020).Toaddoiltothefire,thenPresidentDonaldTrumpdispatchedpoliceoutfittedascombatsoldiersfromtheDepartmentofHomelandSecurity andothersecurityagenciestoquelllegalprotestsinOregonandWashingtonstatesinJuly2020.Itisimportanttonotethatallthreesegmentsofthe dangerousclasswererepresentedintheseconfrontations,togetherwitha right-populistpresidentbentonexploitingsocialunrestforpoliticalgain.

BlackLivesMatterisaprotestgroup,butisit(alongwithotherracial andgenderjusticemovements)partofthecountermovement?MartinLuther King,60yearsearlier,seemedtobelieveso.Heexplained,shortlybeforehis assassination,theneedtoconnectidentitypoliticstoacritiqueofthecapitalistsystemandbuildsolidaritywithworkingpeople.Theblackrebellion, hestatedin ATestamentofHope,is:

muchmorethanastrugglefortherightsofNegroes.Itisexposingevilsthatarerooted deeplyinthewholestructureofoursociety.Itrevealssystemicratherthansuperficialflaws andsuggeststhatradicalreconstructionofsocietyitselfistherealissuetobefaced.Itis… forcingAmericatofaceallitsinterrelatedflaws—racism,poverty,militarismandmaterialism.(King,1967/2003:315)

Inscholarlycircles,manyhavecontended(seeFischer,2020)thatmarket forceshavefeaturedcentrallyinsegmentingandsegregatingpopulations raciallyandunderpinningsystemicracism.Fromthisviewpoint,BLMisa componentofthecountermovement,regardlessofthesparkthatignitedthe demonstrations.

Afinaldistinctivefeatureoftheseconddoublemovementisthegrowing roleofenvironmental,andspecificallyclimate,organizationsinthecountermovement.Polanyiisprescientinidentifyingthedestructivenessoftreatingland(nature)asifitwereacommodityin TheGreatTransformation Nonetheless,environmentalistsdonotfeatureasanactorinthefirstdouble movement.Theriseofneoliberalismaccentuatedthepre-existingtendency totreatnatureasamerecommodity—asetofassetsforprofitmakingand sinksforcarbonandpollution.Rollingbackenvironmentalregulations,promotingresourcedevelopmentandfossilfuelexploitation,andsubsidizing agribusinessdisruptedandpollutedecosystems,destroyedtraditionallivelihoods,threatenedpublichealth,drovespeciestoextinction,blightedtreasuredlandscapes,bredextremeclimaticconditions,andthreatenedthevery survivalofhumankind.Societynaturallyrespondedtothethreat.25 Climate protestsexplodedworldwidein2018andthereafter,withthestudent-led FridaysforFutureanditsworldwideprotestsattheforefront.Thevenerable

25.AUNDPsurveyof1.2millionpeoplein50countriesin2020foundthattwo-thirdsof respondentsbelievedwefacea‘climateemergency’(withlittlevariationbyage),andthat mostrespondentsfavouredfocusingonrenewableenergy,protectingandrestoringforests, andfosteringclimate-friendlyfarmingpractices(Carrington,2021).

350.org,thefeistyupstartExtinctionRebellion(‘RebelforLife’)andahost ofnationalandlocalclimateactivistorganizationsdemandedgovernments curbthedamage,anangryprotestthatsubsidedonlywiththedeadlypandemicin2020.Nonetheless,environmentalistsarenotacohesiveforce;they uniteonends,whiledifferingonmeans.Protestersrangefromneoliberalsat oneend,insistingonmarketincentivesforconservation,toreformistsocial democratsandeco-socialistsdemandingtheendofcapitalism,attheother (Sconfienza,2020).Indeed,advocatesofcreatingcarbonmarketswouldfit betterwithintheliberalmovementthanthesocietalcountermovement.

Inshort,neoliberalism’srecommodificationofthethreefictitiouscommodities(money,labourandland),thistimeencompassingeverycorner oftheworld,predictablydevastatedsocietyandnature.Acountermovementroseagaininreaction.Similarlytothefirstphase,neoliberalismwas plannedviagovernmentalintervention(privatization,deregulation,liberalization,freetrade)whereasinitiallythecountermovementwasspontaneous. PioneeringneoliberalssuchasAugustoPinochet,MargaretThatcherand RonaldReaganknewpreciselywhatkindofsocietytheywantedtocreate, andhow.Market-liberalistthinkingdidnotdisappearduringtheKeynesian period;itlivedonininternationalneoliberalorganizationssuchastheMont PelerinSociety,whoseleadinglightsincludedFriedrichHayekandMilton Friedman,innationalfoundations,andintheeconomicsdepartmentsofmajoruniversities.Consequently,thepolicytoolsforre-institutingamarket societywereathand.AllthatwasneededwasafalteringoftheKeynesiancompromiseinthe1970s,allowingneoliberalstocapturegovernment andre-regulatetodisembedeconomyfromsociety,onemoretime.Theelementsofthecountermovement,incontrast,knewwhattheywereagainst, butnotinitiallywhattheywerefor.Atthenationalandgloballevel,thislack ofdirectionwasmanifestintheanti-globalizationmovement(1999–2008), intheOccupyMovement(2011–16),intheamorphousglobalprotestsfollowingthe2008debacleanditsaftermath,andinthediversityofideologicalpositionswithintheclimatemovement.Butoneunifyingthemewas decommodification,withthegoalofsatisfyingbasicneedsandsavingthe earthratherthanturningaprofit.Onlyinthepastdecadehastheprogressivecountermovementgainedcohesion,partlyasaresponsetotheriseof right-wingpopulismandauthoritariantendencies.

Theheterogeneityofthenewcountermovement,however,impededa coordinatedresponsethatmighthaveledtodeadlockwiththeneoliberal movement.Mostobviously,thecohesivestrengthofalargeandorganized labourmovementwasmissingintheseconddoublemovement.Instead,an amorphousmiddleclassandadividedprecariatexpandedinnumbers.The latterwasadangerousclass,inthatitssegmentsveeredindivergentpoliticaldirections:populistreaction,progressivepolitics,andrageatsystemic racism.Racialandgenderjusticegroupsalsoposedchallengesinachievingunity.Thisdiversity,togetherwiththeideologicaldivisionswithinthe campofenvironmentalists,madeaunifiedprogressiveresponsedifficultto

achieve,atfirst.Missingalso,inthisseconddoublemovement,wasthegalvanizinginfluenceofsocialistpartiesthathadplayedamajorroleinEurope inthefirstepisode.

Neitherradicalsocialismnormoderatesocialdemocracypresentedaviablealternativevisionduringthecrisisof2007–09.Socialism,withits idealsofequality,communityandeconomicdemocracy,hadprovidedthe ideologicalcementoftheLeftinEuropeduringthefirstdoublemovement, thoughlesssointheUS.Butsocialismimplodedintheearlyyearsofthe seconddoublemovement.Centrallyplanned‘socialism’ontheSovietor Chinesemodelnotonlyledtotyranny,butalsofailedasanalternativeto regulatedmarkets.EventheChineseCommunistParty,thoughitsurvived whilemostotherscollapsed,abandonedtheidea,makinganundeclared transitiontostatecapitalism.Moreover,socialisttheoriespredicatedonthe proletariatastheuniversalclasshadtroubleadaptingtoasocietyinwhich theproletariatdeclinedwhiletheprecariatandthemiddleclassesroseto greaterprominence.Theseshiftsdispiritedsocialistsorientedtostatistsolutions,someofwhomretreatedintoanarcanepost-modernistrhetoric.

Socialdemocraticpartiesalsofellintoelectoraldeclinethroughoutthe worldinthe21stcentury.26 Withthedecimationofthetraditionalworking class,thesepartieshadtowooalargeandficklemiddleclass,butwinningtheirvoteriskedalienatingtheiroriginalworkingclasssupport.Adrift amidstneoliberalhegemony,socialdemocratscompromisedtheirfounding traditionsbyadoptingversionsoftheThirdWayinthe1990s.Thecompromisewastoembracetheefficacyofmarketforces,butredistributethe accruingwealthviataxesintoeducation,othersocialservicesandsocial protection.Intheory,thisapproachwouldspreadopportunitybyallowing everyonetocompeteequallywithinthemarketeconomy.Inpractice,the implicitacceptanceofneoliberalhegemonyledsocialdemocratstoaccept thelogicofausteritywhenmarketsfailed.Thispositionalienatedtheirown supporters,manyofwhomdefectedtoright-wingpopulism.Whilestatecentricsocialistsbecameirrelevant,moderatesocialdemocratsfaceddefeat atthepollsandnewleftistpartiesfailedtoprosper.27

Thus,globalizationthatlimitednationalstateautonomy,thediffusionof possessiveindividualism,andtheshiftsinthecompositionofthecountermovement,combinedwiththefailuretofindapoliticalfooting,meantthat thedebacleof2007–09didnotreflectaPolanyianstalemateanddidnot leadtotheendoftheseconddoublemovement.Whatmighthavehappened, didnothappen.Inthepastdecade,however,thesituationhaschanged.The developmentofanintersectional offensivecountermovement hasraisedthe

26.Fordataonthisdeclineinelectoralsupport,andthereasonsforit,insixEuropeancountries, refertoRennwold(2020).

27.Foraperceptiveanalysisofhowandwhysocial-democraticpartiesinEuropehavecollapsed sincethe1990s,andwhynew,moreleftistpartieshavenotyetbecomemajorcontenders forpower,seeKuttner(2021).

possibilitythattheendgameofthedoublemovementisaforeseeableoutcome.Stasis,unfocusedrebellionanddisunitymaybegivingwaytoorganizationandaction.

OFFENSIVECOUNTERMOVEMENT:ENDGAMEOFTHEDOUBLE MOVEMENT?

Aprogressivemovementofcountermovementsappearstobeforming,especiallyinEurope,NorthAmericaandSouthAmerica.Withanincreasingly integratedprogrammeofstructuralchange,this‘offensive’countermovementseeksdecommodification,deeperdemocratizationandbasicrights. Wecandiscernthebeginningsofabroadallianceamongfourgroups:the thirdfractionoftheprecariat,theurbaneducatedmillennialsplaguedby economicinsecurityandprecariouslivelihoods(raisingissuesofworkers’ rights,housing,debtandinequality);thoseconcernedtoasserttherights ofethnicandracialminorities,indigenouspeople,womenandgaypeople; thosefocusingon‘green’issues(especiallytheclimatecrisis);andthose inthepeacemovementopposedtomilitarism,imperialismandnuclear weapons.28 Thisgrowingalliancestemsfromarealizationofthecomplementarityamongtheapparentlydisparategoalsofsingle-issuemovements, fromanemergingacceptancethatsystemicchangesareneededtodealwith theirissues,andfromanawarenessthatunityisstrength.Allthesemovementsdrawtheirmembershipfromthesamedemographicgroups:urban educatedmillennials,students,retiredpeople,professionals,bothemployed andself-employed,officeworkersandtradeunions(Bloomsfield,2020).The adventin2020ofaglobalorganization—theProgressiveInternational— toforgeunityamongthevariouscurrents,wasfurtherevidenceofanoffensivecountermovementinformation.29

Whatisanoffensivecountermovement?ForPolanyi,thecountermovementstoodforthetendencyofsociety,whenunleashedmarketforcesthreatenedlivelihoods,health,community,ornotionsofthesacred,toreact.30 Thecountermovementmightengageinprimitiverebellion,demonstrations, sabotage,supportforoppositionalgroups,ordemandsfortheextensionof thefranchiseandforsocialprotectionandjobprotections.Yettheconcept remainsmurky.Earlier,Idisputedthenotionthatthecountermovementis anentirelyreactive,unconscioussocietalresponse.Notonlyaretheredegreesofgroupconsciousness;Iwouldarguethatwithoutsomedegreeof

28.TheauthorhaspersonalinvolvementincoalitionalmovementpoliticsaspresidentofScienceforPeaceCanada(https://scienceforpeace.ca/)andasamemberofthecoordinating committeeoftheCanada-widePeaceandJusticeNetwork(https://peaceandjusticenetwork. ca/).

29.FortheoriginsandgoalsofProgressiveInternational,see:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Progressive_International

30.SeeDale(2010:220)foracriticalreflectionontheconceptofcountermovement.

organizationacountermovementcannoteffectivelyrespondtotheliberal movement.

Goodwin(2018),awareofthelimitationsofPolanyi’sconcept,distinguishesbetween‘defensive’and‘offensive’countermovements.Although Polanyicaststhecountermovementinadefensiverole,countermovements, Goodwinasserts,canalsoactoffensively.Forexample,indigenouspeople hestudiesinEcuadordonotjustactdefensivelywhenconfrontedwithexternalliberalizingpressures;theyadoptcreativenewformsofdecommodificationandevenembraceprivateownershiptosafeguardtheirlandand resources.Extendingthemarketcanbeliberatingforsomemarginalized groups—anothercomplexityofhistoricalprocesses.Moregenerally,anoffensivecountermovementisnotmerelyreactivetothedangersanddamages ofmarketforces.Itsleadershipisproactiveinseekingsystemicchange,perhapsowingtotheweaknessoforganizedpoliticalchampions.Goodwinconsidersonlylocalizedgroups,butinprincipleoffensivecountermovements canalsooccuratnationaloreventransnationallevels.31

Today,anoffensivecountermovementisonlyapotentialdevelopment,not acertainty;yettrendsinpopularrebellionandsocialist/anti-capitalistthinkingincreasetheprobabilityofthatoutcome.Scatteredprotestspriortothe 2007–09debaclewerefollowedbyastaggeringarrayofnon-violentprotests worldwidein2010–20(Chenoweth,2020).In2019–20,themostextensive waveofrebellionsince1968erupted(Wright,2019),curtailedonlybythe onsetofthepandemicin2020.Thelatterprotestsengulfedsixcontinents and114countries,affectingliberaldemocraciesaswellasdictatorship.As Wright(ibid.)observes:

Movementshaveemergedovernight,outofnowhere,unleashingpublicfuryonaglobal scale—fromParisandLaPaztoPragueandPort-au-Prince,BeiruttoBogotaandBerlin, CataloniatoCairo,andinHongKong,Harare,Santiago,Sydney,Seoul,Quito,Jakarta, Tehran,Algiers,Baghdad,Budapest,London,NewDelhi,Manila,andevenMoscow.Taken together,theprotestsreflectunprecedentedpoliticalmobilization.

In2020theUnitedStates,withtheworld’slargesteconomy,militaryand nuclearforce,sufferedthemostextensivecivilunrestsincethe1960s’civil rightsandanti-warprotests.Sociallearningabouteffectivecivildisobediencethroughsocialmediahadalottodowiththeunrest,togetherwiththe erosionofdemocracyundertheaegisofTrumpandothernativist-populist leaders(Chenoweth,2020:70).

Granted,thesepopularoutburstscannotneatlybeattributedtothedamageswroughtbycommodificationorthetriplecrisesofneoliberalism.Local irritantsandinjustices,fromhikesintransitfares,tocorruption,authoritariantendenciesandracistincidents,sparkedprotests.Buttheprotests, whateverprecipitatedthem,manifestedawidespreadangerwiththe

31.WhatistheProgressiveInternationalbutapotentialoffensivecountermovementatthe globallevel?

prevailingorder.Acommonthemewasthatself-servingeliteshadseized toomuchpowerandwealth.Confirmingtheanger,theEdelmanTrust Barometer2020,basedonsurveysin28countries,concludesthata‘global trustcrisisisdeepening’.Morethanhalfthepopulationofdevelopedliberal democraciesfeltthatdemocracyislosingitseffectivenessand56percent believedthatcapitalismdoesmoreharmthangood.32 Popularrebellionssignalledtheneedtoreconstructbrokensocialcontracts—byreconstituting ‘thepeople’eitherasaracial/religiousmajority(nativist-populism)orasa rights-bearingmultiracialnationalcommunity(left-liberalismtosocialism).

Rebellioncoincidedwitharenaissanceofleftistthinking.Margaret Thatcher’sdictum—‘thereisnoalternative’—isnolongeraccurate.Conservatismhasstagnated,bereftofnewideasandcontenttorepeatthesame class-biasedpolicies:taxcuts,mainlyfortherich;deregulation,despitethe socialandenvironmentalcosts;austeritytodealwithdepletedrevenuesand publicdebt;routinizedemergencymonetarymeasures;andfreetradeand capitalmovements.Right-wingpopulismdissentsonlyonthelastpolicies, decryingglobalizationandregionalcommunities.AnintellectualLeft,in contrast,hasbrokennewground.PopularjournalsoftheLeftanddebate forums33 brimwithideasforsystemicchange.Ideasrangefromtackling structuralracismtoracialjustice;frombuildingfromthelocaltoreframingglobalization;fromnewformsofpublicownershiptocooperativeproduction;fromdecommodifyingland,labour,money,healthandeducation toparticipatoryplanning;andfromgreenenergytoaGreenNewDeal. TheNextSystemProjectprovidesahandycompendiumofnewprogressiveideas.34

ForemostasanoverarchingprogrammeisaGreenNewDealoritstwin, aJustTransition35 toagreenfuture.Amajorpoliticaladvantageofthis programmeisitsideologicalopaqueness;itmaysavecapitalismfromitself(asRoosevelt’sNewDealdidinthe1930s),oritmayopenapathto theeventualtranscendenceofcapitalism.TheGreenNewDealcertainly involvesaleap,buttheindefinitenatureoftheleapallowsleft-liberals andidentityactiviststocooperatewithdemocraticsocialistsinabroadalliance.Versionsofjusttransitionsandgreennewdealshaveemergedsince 2018asgovernmentalorpartyprogrammesinmanycountries.36 Theversionsrangefromradical/transformational(Klein,2020)toreformist(the EuropeanGreenDeal).37 Althoughtheyvaryintheirambition,theirlogic issimilar.Ecologicaltransformationcannotbeachievedwithoutstructural

32.FortheEdelmanTrustBarometer2020,see:www.edelman.com/trustbarometer

33.Theyaretoonumeroustolist.Myfavourites,inadditiontotherelativelyancient Dissent and Soundings,include TheJacobin, Counterpunch, IRRPProgressiveReview,theSocialist Project’s TheBullet and OpenDemocracy Forum(www.opendemocracy.net/).

34.See:https://thenextsystem.org/search/node?keys=gar+alperovitz+james+gustave+speth

35.See:climatejusticealliance.org/just-transition/

36.Foradetailedanalysisandcritique,seeSandbrook(2020).

37.See:ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en

reformsofeconomyandsociety.Thelatterarebothanendinthemselves(to createfairnesstodisplacedworkersandopportunitiesforall)andameans towinpopularsupportfortheuncertainjourneytoagreenfuture.Thetransitiontoanet-zerocarboneconomymustbejustandsystemictowork.All thatismissingfromthisnarrativeisthedemandfordemilitarization,which wouldfacilitatedecarbonization.

TherenownedGreenNewDealsponsoredbyAlexandriaOcasio-Cortez andEdMarkey,intheformofaresolutionintheUSHouseofRepresentativesin2019,followsthislogic.Denouncedasasocialistplot,theplanis closertoaRooseveltianNewDeal.Itcallsfora‘10-yearnationalmobilization’toachieve100percentrenewableenergy,giantinvestmentsininfrastructureandacarbon-freeeconomy,andjobsforallwhowanttowork. Accompanyingthetransitionaremeasuresregardedasmainstreaminadvancedwelfarestates:universalhealthcare,freehighereducation,affordable housing,enhancedlabourrights,ajobguaranteeandremediesforracism. Enforcementofanti-trustlawswould,ifsuccessful,weakentheeconomic andpoliticalpowerofoligopolies.Whendemocraticreformsareaddedto thislist,theGreenNewDealaugersstructuralchangeandmorestateintervention—butnotsocialism.

Alongwithpopularprotests,thereactiontoright-wingpopulismand theemergentnewleftnarrative,weobservethestirringsofapotentially multiracialoffensivecountermovement.38 Activistorganizationsworkingon povertyandworkers’rights,racialandgenderjustice,climatejusticeand anti-militarismarejoininghandsacrosstheirseparatesilostoadvancean increasinglyunifiedagendaofstructuralchange.Thisorganizationwithin civilsocietyisoccurringatatime,inboththeUSandtheUK,whenno majorpartychampionsaradical,progressivestance.39 ThepartyestablishmentsofboththeDemocraticParty(US)andtheLabourParty(UK)areunsympathetictoradicalchange,wishingtoappealtomiddleclassmoderates. SenatorBernieSandersinhispresidentialprimaryrunsin2016and2020 andJeremyCorbynduringhisleadershipoftheLabourPartybothgaveimpetustotheprogressivecountermovement,butthepartyestablishmentsprevailedinbothcases.40 Polanyi’sclaim,in TheGreatTransformation,thatthe doublemovementultimatelypittedgovernment(liberaldemocracyresponsivetothecountermovement),againstindustry(theheartlandoftheliberal movement)doesnotyetapply.Withbothstateandindustryresponsiveto theliberalmovementoritspopulistoffspring,thecentreofoppositionshifts to civilsociety.Thesocietalcountermovementispushedtowardunityand anoffensivestrategyinthesecircumstances.

38.See,forexample,Benanav(2020),whoinhisPostscriptidentifiesthesesocialmovements astheagentsofchange,pushingsocietytowardapost-scarcityfuture.

39.TheroleoftheUSDemocraticPartyremaineduncertainatthetimeofwriting.

40.Foraninsider’sanalysisofwhathappened,seeGilbert(2020).

Thebiggestchallengeistofusethestrugglesforeconomicjusticewith thoseforracialjustice—toforgeanintersectionaloffensivecountermovement.Theevidenceforsystemicracismisstrong.IntheUS,forexample, blackslagbehindthepopulationasawholeinincome,houseownership, educationallevelandaccesstohealthservices.Inaddition,theyaremore likelythanwhitestocontractCOVID-19,bestoppedbypoliceandbeincarcerated.Yethowtotackletheissueeffectively?Asacademicandblack activistCornellWestexplains:‘aslongaswehaveisolatedissues,aslongas weremaininoursilos,andremaininourrespectivespaceswithoutsolidarity,wedon’thaveachance’(West,2020).Hewarnsagainstfetishizingrace orgenderandadvocatesconnectingtheblackstrugglewiththestrugglesof workingpeopleandthepoor.

Howtoachievethisgoalofbroadersolidarity?López(2019)suggestsan answer:torecognizeracismasaweaponofclasswarfare.Right-wingpoliticiansuseracistappeals(‘dogwhistles’)todividetheworkingandmiddle classesandelectgovernmentsthatrewardthecorporateandwealthyelites attheformer’sexpense.Raceandclassarethusinseparable—infact,they arefused.Butwillwhitepeoplerespondpositivelytothismessage?Yes, saysLópez(ibid.),basedonextensiveresearch.Onlysomeofthosewho respondtoconservative/populistattemptstoarouseracefearsareinveterate racists.Manyothersharbourracialstereotypesandfears,butalsodisplay anti-racistideals,suchastheideathatpeopleshouldhelpothermembers ofalocalcommunity.Theyrespondtomessagesto‘distrustgreedyelites sowingdivision’andtoelectgovernmentsthatserveeveryone,andnotjust thefew.

Ifintersectionalityisonedimensionoftheoffensivecountermovement, cross-movementcollaborationisanother.41 Workers’movements,climate advocates,indigenousorganizationsandpeaceactivistsarediscovering complementaritiesamongtheirseparategoals.AnexampleistheLeap ManifestoinCanada,apoliticalmanifestoissuedbyacoalitionofenvironmental,indigenousandlabourleadersin2015thathasattractedwidespread support.42 AprecursoroftheGreenNewDeal,theManifestoaddressesthe climatecrisisbyadvocatingpoliciesthatrestructuretheCanadianeconomy whilecounteractingwealthandincomeinequality,racismandcolonialism. Onedimensionissolidaritybetweenenvironmentalistsandlabourunions. Workerswhocurrentlyextract,process,transportandemployfossilfuels willbeaccordedthetrainingandsupporttoassumeequallyremunerative jobs.Thus,ajobguaranteeisakeycomponentofthisformulationandsubsequentformulationsofajusttransitionandgreennewdeals.Forinstance, itismoreeffectivetocreatejobsthroughspendingonwindandsolarpower

41.Akbar(2020)providesavividcurrentperspectiveontheshifttowardradicalreformismin variousUSgrassrootsmovements.

42.Forthedocumentanditssignatories,see:https://leapmanifesto.org/en/the-leap-manifesto/. Declarationofinterest:theauthorisasignatory.

thanonthemilitary.BrownUniversity’sCostofWarProjectfindsthatshiftingUS$125billionfrommilitaryspendingtogreenmanufacturingwould createanadditional250,000jobs(SteichanandKoshgarian,2020).Taking careofdisplacedworkersisanimportantpartofanyjusttransition.

Thepeacemovementisnotusuallyregardedaspartofthecountermovement.Totheextentthatpeaceactivistsreacttothecommodificationof weapons(the‘armstrade’)andtothedamagetosocietyandnaturethat ensues,theydobelong.Armsproducers,mainlyintheWestandRussia, selldeadlyweaponsandsurveillancesystemstoautocraticregimes,suchas thatinSaudiArabia,wheretheyareusedtoquelllocaldissentorsupport alliesincivilwars.Othercampaignstakeonthemilitary-industrial-securityacademiccomplex,anditsinfluenceinpromotingmilitaryexpenditures,especiallyonnewgenerationsofdangerousnuclearweapons,andincapturing armsmarkets.

Militarism,socialjusticeprioritiesandtheclimatecrisisarecloselyrelated.Ajusttransitionrequiresnotonlyatransitionfromfossilfuelsto renewables,butalsodemilitarization.Bloateddefenceandbordersecurity budgetsabsorbfinancialandhumanresourcesthatmightotherwisebedirectedtowardsuchhigh-prioritygoalsasbuildingagreeneconomy,securingeconomicandracialjustice,andendingpoverty.43 Militariesarealso majoremittersofgreenhousegases.Climateandpeacemovementshave alsodrawnclosertogetheroverthenuclearthreat.Evenalimitednuclear exchange,whetheraccidentalorintentional,wouldinitiateanuclearwinter, withdireconsequencesintheformofdrought,starvationandgeneralized misery.Conversely,climatechange,bydestroyinglivelihoodsandrenderingcertaintropicalregionsuninhabitable,underminesfragilestates,exacerbatesexistingethnicconflictsandcausesdestabilizingmovementsofclimatemigrants/refugees.Thisscenarioisplayingoutmostdestructivelyin theSahelianregionofsub-SaharanAfrica.Peace,justiceandclimateissues areinextricablylinked.

Althoughthecomplementarityofgoalsandcross-mobilizationonissues suggestthepotentialforaprogressivecountermovement,onemustresistromanticizingsocialmovements.Tobeeffective,movementsmustforgecommongoals,thedisciplinetoremainnon-violentandwell-attunedstrategy andtactics.Thesearedemandingrequisites.Reconcilingidentitywithclass politicsisacontinuingchallenge,asisavoidingsectariandivisions.Disruptivestrainsthreatenourveryexistencethroughthetwindangersofnuclear warandclimatechange;yetcrisisdoesnotnecessarilyleadtoprogressive change(Berman,2020).

43.MilitaryspendingintheUnitedStatesaccountsformorethanhalfofthefederalgovernment’sdiscretionaryspending—US$756billionin2020.Ifhomelandsecurity,borderand immigrationenforcement,federallawenforcementandfederalincarcerationcostsareincluded,‘security’accountsfor64percentoffederaldiscretionaryspending(Steichanand Koshgarian,2020:Ch.4).

Howcanwesumupoursituationtoday?Areweenteringtheendgameof thedoublemovement?Forecastingisdifficultatanytime,butparticularly duringaglobalpandemic,evenonethathaslaidbaremanyinjustices.The pandemicisacontingenteventwhoseeffectsarefarfromclearatthetime ofwritingin2021.Whatisclearisthateconomiescontinuetofunction, albeitdependentoncentralbankstimulation.Disruptivestrainshavenotyet producedastalemateorapervasiveeconomicandpoliticalcrisis,although suchacrisiscouldwellappearwithinflationarypressuresandpropertyand stockmarketbubbles.Aprogressivecountermovementhasgrowninideas andunity,butithasalongwaytogoinbecomingaformidableactor.Finally, weobserveapoliticalpolarizationthatbearsresemblancetothatPolanyi describedattheendofthefirstdoublemovement.

OfthefourscenariosPolanyiaddresses,communist-stylebureaucratic collectivismisnolongeronthehistoricalagenda.Itdevolvedintotyranny andultimatelycollapsedortransmutedintocapitalism(China),exceptin NorthKorea.TheNewDeal(savingcapitalismthroughwide-rangingreforms),fascism(savingcapitalismbyeliminatingdemocracy),anddemocraticsocialism(savingdemocracyattheexpenseofcapitalism)remain relevant.

Democraticsocialismandsocialdemocracyarenotclearlydemarcated inpopulardiscoursetoday.GreenNewDeals,asmentionedearlier,areambiguous.TheymayemulatetheRooseveltianNewDealbysavingcapitalism throughradicalreforms,ortheymayextendfurtherleft.AddingtotheconfusionisBernieSanders’tendencytoidentifydemocraticsocialismwith socialdemocracyontheNordicmodel.Inanycase,suchambiguityispoliticallyadvantageousinbuildinginclusivecoalitions.

Socialismhasevolvedinacommunitariandirection.Thefailureoftopdownapproaches,bothcommunistandtraditionalsocial-democratic,has givenimpetustothefocusoncommunity.Whenbothmarketandstate areseentofail,weareleftwithcivilsociety.Thisfocusalsoaccords withPolanyi’semphasisoncommunity(‘therealityofsociety’),aswellas economicdemocracy.Buildingonthecooperativeexperiencesofthepast, nascentexperimentstaketheformofexpandingthecommonsandasolidarityeconomyinwhichproducercooperativesthrive.Brie(2017:44–46), workingwithinthePolanyiantradition,suggeststhatanalliancebetween ‘liberalsocialism’,associatedwiththeGreenNewDeal,and‘libertarian commonism’mayunderpinasocialistresolutionofthedoublemovement. Progressivethinkinghasmovedonfromstatistalternatives(Wainwright, 2018).

Thefascistscenarioalsoremainspertinent.Fascism,accordingtoPolanyi, isa‘virus’that,duringnormaltimes,remainslatentwithincapitalism (Polanyi,1934,1935).Attimesofsystemiccrisis,however,itbecomesvirulent.Theassociationoffascismwithcapitalismarisesbecauseoftheinherenttensionbetweencapitalismanddemocracy.Capitalismisthesphereof privateproperty,accumulationand,iftheprojectof(mythical)freemarkets

holdssway,vasteconomicand,hence,politicalinequalityandsocialdislocation.Democracy,incontrast,istheoreticallythesphereofpoliticalequality wherepopularsovereigntygovernsdecisionmaking.Thecountermovement ofsocietalprotectioninevitablylookstothesphereofelectoralpoliticsand governmenttoprotectitsconstituentelementsfromthedestructivenessof unleashedmarketforces.Attimesofcrisis,demandsmayescalate,threateningprivateproperty.Thisclashbetweentheeconomicandpoliticalspheres releasesthevirusoffascismintothebodypolitic.

Forthosedeterminedtorestorethe‘natural’orderofprivateproperty, classprivilegeandprofitability,akeyquestionarises:howtoachievethis goalinanostensiblydemocraticsystemwherethemajorityrules?Theonly wayistoattackliberalvaluesascorruptandchannelpopularangervia evocativestereotypesandconspiracytheoriesthatinflamenationalist,racist orreligiouscleavages.Thesetacticsneutralizeclassstruggle,whichmight otherwiseoverwhelmthecopingmechanismsoftheplutocracy.Ifthetopdownstrategysucceeds,theoutcomeisanauthoritarian,regulatedcapitalismwithsecurepropertyrightsthatgovernsbystokingfearandhatredof outgroups.Conservatives,includingneoliberals,mayacceptallianceswith fascistsforself-protection,despitetheirqualms.

The‘virus’metaphorisanaptone.Fascismislikeinfluenza.Usually, flutakesarelativelymildform(right-wingpopulism).Right-wingpopulistshavemadeinroadsinmanycountriesthroughouttheworld.44 Butthe mildforms,undercertainconditions,canmutateintothemorevirulent formoffascism.Theimplicationisthatnativist-populistleadersandpartiesarenot,astheymayappear,partofthecountermovement;theyare associatedwiththeneoliberalmovement(Kiely,2020:407–13).Theyattackthesociallyliberalcomponentsofneoliberalism:multiculturalism,immigration,feminismandanti-racism.Theymobilizesupportthroughappealstoracialfearsandstereotypesandagainstthesupposedlycorruptcosmopolitaneliteswhoenableimmigrationandpromoteaffirmativeaction. Butnativist-populists,whilemobilizingtheWhitelowerclassesthrough racialandanti-eliteappeals,alsoprotectpropertyrightsandensurethatincometaxandotherpoliciesfavourthewealthy.Protectionistpoliciesmay offendliberals,buttheirmainintentistoextractconcessionsinbilateral statenegotiations,opposetransborderlabourmobilityanddefendintellectualproperty.Xenophobicandauthoritarianpopulistswillwanttoputup wallsalongtheirboundaries,turnpopularfrustrationandfearofclimate turmoilandtechnologicalrevolutionagainst‘aliens’andtheircosmopolitan supporters.

Insum,thealternativesexploredbyPolanyiattheendofthefirstdoublemovementremainpertinent.Yet,ifweareenteringtheendgameofthe seconddoublemovement,itsoutcomeremainsshrouded.

44.Forasurveyofcases,seeStanley(2020).

CONCLUSION

Whatconceptualizationofthedoublemovementexplainscapitalismtoday? Thesignificanttermsare‘explain’and‘capitalism’.Towhatextentcanwe explainthedynamicsofcontemporarycapitalism?Inpractice,toonlya limitedextent.Why?Capitalismisasprawlingconcept.Itreferstoasocioeconomicsystemcharacterizedbyprivateownershipofthemeansofproduction(buthowmuch?)andthetreatmentoflabour,landandmoneyasif theywerecommodities(butwithhowmanyrestrictions?)toproducemore commodities(butcombinedwithhowmanypublicgoods?)tosellonmarkets.Thevaguenessofcapitalismleadstoaproliferationofadjectivesto narrowthescopeofinquiry:‘carceral’capitalismand‘surveillance’capitalismarejusttworecentqualifiers;theyjoinearlierones,suchas‘patrimonial’,‘late’,‘state’,‘predatory’,‘gangster’,‘social-democratic’andothers.Thevaguerandmorevariegatedaphenomenon,thelesspersuasiveare generaltheories.Descriptivegeneralizationsarecertainlypossibleandenlightening.AcaseinpointisPiketty’s(2018)renownedthesisthat,inthe longterm,therateofreturnoncapitalisgreaterthantherateofeconomic growth,leadingtoaconcentrationofwealth.Butintheshortrun,onefinds exceptionstothetrend.Thethesisisperceptive,butitraisesmanyfurther questions.Thatisinevitable.

Asuperiorsocial-scientificmodel,accordingtomethodologytextbooks, isonethatexplainsthemostwiththefewestconcepts.Ifweadoptthisstandard,themodeloutlinedandillustratedaboveisexemplary.Thistwo-phase model,itshouldagainbesaid,isnotauniquecreation;itbringstogetherthe workofmanyscholarsinasystematic,explicitway.Themodelsuggeststhe following.Whatwecanknowaboutthetrajectoryofcapitalismislimited. Aliberalmovementarisesincertainconditionstochampiontheconceptof theself-regulatingmarket.Thedamagethatensueswhenthestateinstitutes thedisembeddingofeconomyfromsocietyinevitablyprovokesacountermovement.Thecompositionofthiscountermovementvariesmarkedlyfrom onephaseofthedoublemovementtothenext.Theorganizationalpotential ofthecountermovementoritsvariouscomponentsimportantlyshapesoutcomes,asreactiveactionsbecomemoreconsciousindesign.Overtime, disruptivestrains,emergingfromthecontradictionsunleashedbymarket forcesatthenationalandgloballevels,deependivisions.Growingpolarizationintroducesthepossibilityofstalematebetweenthemovementand thecountermovement.Ifthispossibilityisrealized,theeconomyceasesto function,andapoliticalcrisisensues.

Butastalematemaynotoccurasitdidinthefirstdoublemovement. Tensionsmaycontinuetoaccumulateifthecountermovementisnotstrong enough;bothstateandindustrymayremainmainlyresponsivetotheliberalmovement.Orasocialaccordmayallaythecontradictionsforawhile. Possibly,anoffensivecountermovementmaygainthecoherencetoinfluencethestateandchallengeindustry.Inthiscase,thepoliticalpolarization

maytaketheclassicformoffascismversussocialism,withNewDealreformismasathirdoption.However,contingenciesmatter.An‘opportunity structure’organizesthecomplexitybyseparatingcontingenciesintothree levels—global,nationalstateandpoliticalmovements.Thelevelsinteract inastructuredwaywithoutanylevelbeingdeterminative.Thereis,inthe end,alimittowhatwecansayingeneral.TherevisedPolanyiandouble movementallowsustoprobethoselimitsbyalertingustofamiliarpatterns andcommonrelationshipsamongahostofvariables.Ourpredicamentis thattheseconddoublemovementisevenmoreunstableanddangerousthan thefirst.Thecomparativeframeallowsustoidentifythatpredicament,understanditscauses,andthinkthroughscenariosforachievingfreedomina complexanddangerousworld.

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RichardSandbrook (richard.sandbrook@utoronto.ca)isProfessorEmeritusofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofToronto,Canada,andPresident ofScienceforPeaceinToronto,Canada.