IsraelJournalofForeignAffairs,2016
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23739770.2016.1182342
Letters
OnMichaelMertes’ “ToobigforEurope,TooSmallfortheWorld?
TheGermanQuestionReconsidered”
Sir,
WecanbegratefultoMichaelMertesforsharingwithushisthoughtfulideas aboutGermany’soddpositioninEuropeandtheworld.HedescribesGermany asagreatcontinentalpower(especiallyineconomicterms)thatisraisingthesuspicionofotherEuropeanstates,evenasitadherestoaneutralpositioninworld affairs.AlthoughIagreewithmostofwhathehaswritten,Iwouldliketoadd someofmyownthoughts.
WhileMertesaccuratelydescribesGermany’sgreateconomicstrengthand remindsusofitspopulationofover80millionpeople,thesefactorsdescribethe potentialpowerofastate.Ininternationalrelations,however,nothingcounts morethanthehardcurrencyofmilitarypower,includingthecapabilityto projectthatpower.Inthisregard,Germany’spositioninEuropeandtheworld isnotespeciallythreatening.Itisnosecretthatthereadinessofthe Bundeswehr’ s weaponsystemsisfarbelowtheNATOstandardof70percent.Itsaircraft havebeengroundedbecauseofalackofspareparts.Thedeploymentof5,000–6,000soldiersintheheydayoftheInternationalSecurityAssistanceForce (ISAF)campaigninAfghanistannearlyoverextendedGermany’sarmedforces. Germanyisquiteunabletoprojectmilitarypowerwithoutthehelpofits allies.Thus,intermsofmilitarycapabilities,thereisnoreasontobeworried aboutGermanyinEurope.Consequently,wemayhearEuropeanstatescriticizing Germanyforonethingoranother;however,thereisnovisiblebalancingagainstit.
AsMertescorrectlyobserves,Germanspreferaratherneutralistforeignpolicy.Let usbearinmindthatGermanyisacountrythatsackedapresident(Christian DemocratHorstKöhler)in2010formentioninginaninterviewthatGermany hadtosecureitstradingroutesandinterestsabroad—evenwithmilitaryforceif necessary.NormsandnationalidentitycertainlyplayaroleinGermany’ s restrainedforeignandsecuritypolicy.However,Ibelievetheyarehardlysufficient toexplainthebehaviorofstates.Thus,Iwouldliketoaddaneo-realistperspective.
Fromthatpointofview,somethingcurioushappenedinEuropeaftertheendofthe ColdWar.WhereasinpastcenturiestheEuropeangreatpowerswereveryconcerned
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aboutthebalanceofpower,thebipolarworldoftheColdWarforcedthemtoallywith eitheroneofthesuperpowers.Washingtonretainedastrongmilitarypresencein Europe—includingseveralhundredthousandtroopsandacoupleofthousand nuclearweapons.AstheColdWarwounddown,onewouldhaveexpectedtheAmericanstohaveleftEurope.ThiswouldhavereactivatedtheEuropeans’ strugglefor power.However,theAmericansstayed.WashingtoncontinuedtomaintainitsmilitarypresenceinEuropeandNATOcountries.Astheorganizationwasextendedeastward,andwith “out-of-area” missions,anewraisond’êtreemerged.
ThiscontinuedUSinvolvementinEuropeisthemajorreasonwedonotsee Germanyactingthewayagreatpowerissupposedto.Instead,Americaserves as “nightwatchman,” astheneo-realistJohnJ.Mearsheimerputit,andwill notallowtheEuropeanstatestoattackeachother.Asaconsequence,Europeans cansleepwellatnight.Inotherwords,Washington’scommitmentneutralizesthe balanceofpowerpoliticsinEurope,pacifiesGermany,andtherebyenhances Europe’spoliticalstabilitytremendously.
Aslongasthisconstellationdoesnotchangedramatically,oneshouldnotexpect Germany’sforeignpolicytoevolveintoamoreactiveone.Certainly,thereare well-foundedquestionsconcerningthedurationofAmerica’spresencein Europe.Today,theascendancyofChinaisthemajorsecuritychallengetothe US.DoesWashingtonpossessthecapabilitytobalanceChinaandcontinueits commitmenttoEurope(andtheMiddleEast)simultaneously?Onlytimewill tell.IfearthatiftheAmericansleaveEurope,Germany’sbehaviorwillchange drastically—andwithit,thewholeofEurope.
MerteshasalsowrittenofGermany’srelationswithIsrael.Heisabsolutelycorrect inassertingthatthecommitmentofGermangovernmentofficialsisnotmatchedby mostofGermansociety.Thisisnotonlyatroublingtrendbutalsoaverydangerous one,whichmustbeaddressedinaseriousmanner.Thisissuewillbecomeeven worsewiththeintegrationofmorethanonemillionmigrantsfromtheMiddle East.Itisnotenoughtostresshistoricalandmoralresponsibilities—althoughitis importanttodoso.However,thereareotherreasonsaswellthatmilitatefor goodrelationswithIsrael—particularlywithrespecttoGermany’sownsecurity.
AstheonlydemocracyintheMiddleEast,Israelisthenaturalpartnerfor Germanyinthisregion.IsraelisalsoamajorassettoGermanintelligence.Let usrecallthelatestknownexample:theterroralertbeforeafootballgamein GermanyinNovember2015thatcamefromIsrael.Inaddition,Germanscan learnfromIsrael’svastexperienceincounterterrorism.Inconfrontingfuture terrorattacksinEurope,Germany(andotherEuropeanstates)willneed Israel’sexpertise.Militaryandsecuritytechnologiesareanother fieldinwhich relationswithIsraelareextremelybeneficial.Thisisnotaone-waystreet, however.ThelonghistoryofGerman–Israeliarmscooperationprovesthatboth
countriesbenefitwhentheyworktogether.Thus,tieswithIsraelareverymuchin Germany’snationalinterest—anaspectthatshouldbestressedmoreoftenwhen evaluatingGerman–Israelirelations.
MarcelSerr Jerusalem Sir,
MichaelMertesbeginshisarticlewithaneye-catchingmotif:thespecterof Germany.Formanyreaders,thatconjuresup—inknee-jerkfashion—visionsof neo-Nazisandantisemitisminitsmyriadvarieties.However,theauthorhassomethingelseinmindentirely.HereferstoGermany’sroleintheongoing financial crisisinGreece,therefugeecrisisinEurope,anditsofficialpolicytowardthe StateofIsrael.MertesalsowritesthatGermany “hasbecomeananchorofstability inEurope.” AtthecoreofhisthesisistheideathatGermanyshoulddevelopa moreactiveroleininternationalpoliticsandthatthecountry’sstrategyshould notbedrivenbypost-nationalidealism.
Inmyopinion,Germanyistodaymaneuveringalongaveryuncertainandeventreacherousroute.Astrangemixtureofeconomicpragmatismandself-righteousmoralismhasevolved.MertesmentionsIranandtheliftingofsanctions.Although ChancellorAngelaMerkelalwaysstressesGermany’scommitmenttoIsrael’ ssecurity,inJulyoflastyear,hervice-chancellorSigmarGabriel,whoalsoservesas economyandenergyminister,beatahastypathtoIranwithhiscoattails flying. WhydidhetakethefastlanetoTehran?Ithinktheanswerisclear.Iranisnow seennotasatyrannicalstatethreateningIsraelandtheWesternworldandrepressingitsownpopulation,butasthenewElDorado.Thebusinesscommunity,of course,wasespeciallyexcitedbythepotentialnewmarketsforGermanexports— nomatterthestatusofhumanrightsinthatcountry.Mostleftistsdidn’treactand manywereneutral.Israel’sconcernswerenotreallypartofthepublicdiscourse.
Berlin’sstraightforwardapproachtothe financialcrisisarousedmuchdispleasure inGreeceandleftistEuropeancircles,butitstrengthenedGermany’spositionin Europeanandworld financialinstitutions.Whentherefugeecrisisof2015 emerged,Germanytookamoralisticandpaternalisticviewofthesituationand thisguideditspolicies.TheresultwasariftintheEuropeanUnionandeven withinGermany,bothpoliticallyandwithincivilsociety.Extremistparties gainedgroundandarsonattacksagainstrefugeesheltersincreased.Approvalof thegovernment’spoliticsandMerkel’sleadershipdecreasedfrommonthtomonth.
Mertesisright,ofcourse.Self-righteousnessonvariouslevelsinfectedtheGerman mood(anddiscourse)intheautumnandwinterof2015–16,onbothsidesofthe