LONG ROAD BACK
Francisco Liriano: From prospect to suspect to ace by Parker Hageman
L
ike the break of his trademark slider, Francisco Liriano’s career took a decisive downward turn a few years ago. His stuff was simply a dim facsimile of what he was producing in 2006. His fastball had lost five miles per hour while the slider was a diluted version of its former self. Plus, in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, in a period where one expects to see signs of improvement, he walked more batters and allowed more home runs. The road to recovery appeared to be leading absolutely nowhere. Then, in late 2009, after being pummeled on the field like Joe Pesci’s character from Casino for most of the summer, Liriano revealed that his arm once again felt “tired.” Perhaps he was feeling the effects of the innings accrued too quickly following the surgery. After all, he had thrown almost 200 innings in 2008 between the minors and majors, and then added another 11 while pitching with Leones del
Escogido in the Dominican League that winter. According to injury expert Will Carroll, the recovery time line for Tommy John is typically 22 to 24 months. By that estimate, he should not have been fully recovered until November 2008, and yet Liriano was throwing just 17 months later, logging more innings than anyone else on the team. It was a fairly substantial workload for a healthy pitcher let alone someone attempting to rebuild their arm. Whatever the explanation behind the soreness, the ’09 season did not go the direction Liriano wanted. When the dust settled and the smoke cleared, he was shackled to one of the league’s highest ERAs (5.80), had dished out an unsightly amount of walks, and acted like a willing home run derby pitcher for right-handed batters. The internal feedback following that season did not reassure anyone that this was a minor concern. The catching
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2011 MINNESOTA TWINS squadron noted that the lefty routinely shook off calls for his fastball, unable to conjure up faith to throw it in the required situations. The coaching staff spoke of a loss of confidence in his stuff, not trusting his arsenal when it mattered. As confidence in his own abilities waned, so too did that of the Twins. Heading into 2010, the Twins didn’t even have definitive plans for Liriano. He would compete for the fifth spot in the rotation with Brian Duensing, who had begun the season in Rochester and pitched well enough to merit a playoff start, and Glen Perkins, who had been injured and demoted to Rochester at the season’s end. Failing that, he would potentially be cast as the team’s left-handed reliever alongside Jose Mijares. Not too many analysts gave Liriano’s future much consideration either. In their 2010 edition, the experts at Baseball Prospectus set the bar low for any hopes of a return:
Baseball’s road is littered with the remains of some of the game’s most promising pitchers that have succumbed to the same type of injury as Liriano. Darren Dreifort, B.J. Ryan, and Mike Hampton are all examples of pitchers whose careers ended prematurely. Because Tommy John surgery has become so commonplace that it is almost an in-and-out procedure at the local CVS Minute Clinic, it is taken for granted that a small percentage of players never fully recover from the knife. With two seasons removed from his operation and little progress, it started to feel like it was time to add Liriano’s name to that list. Ready to bury the dead, from the far reaches of the Northern Hemisphere on the island of Hispaniola, during America’s baseball-less doldrums of January, signs of life began to emerge. It was then when the lefthander took the mound in the Dominican League series that was streamed live on ESPN360.com (now ESPN3.com). Those who hunched over our computer monitors, desperately yearning for the slightest bit of summery baseball action to combat cabin fever, watched
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The competition has been impressed with the improved Liriano, even saying he has a “Randy Johnson-type” slider. as Liriano tossed mind-bending sliders in the direction of his winter ball opponents, the Gigantes del Cibao. Those pitches dove out of the zone with ferocity—now-you-see-it-now-youdon’t movement—causing numerous empty swings. Visually, it was a spectacle to behold, but the question remained: Could those tantalizing images of Liriano’s arm action captured at Julien Javier Stadium some 2,000 miles away from Minnesota, actually translate into the same type of supremacy last seen in 2006? After all, dominating untested prospects and major league retreads attempting to reestablish their careers was one thing; replicating this success stateside was a whole other ballgame. In all, Liriano’s equatorial performance validated that he was not quite done yet. He racked up 47 strikeouts in 37 innings with an ERA that could barely be seen with the naked eye (0.49). More importantly, considering the amount of free passes allowed in 2009, he issued just five walks. “My arm feels way better,” Liriano told reporters several days later at the Metrodome preparing for TwinsFest, the
Photo on previous page: Bruce Kluckhohn/Getty Images Photo this page: Hannah Foslien/Getty Images
While medical technology has advanced to the point where Tommy John surgery is often seen as a mere bump in the road for a player’s development, it still has its fair share of casualties. Witness Liriano, who burst onto the scene in 2006 with such force that many inside the game thought his potential surpassed that of even Johan Santana, his teammate at the time. Three years later, Liriano has pitched himself out of the rotation, thanks to a 3-to-5 mph drop in his velocity, command that has gone backward, and confidence that is absolutely shot. Still dreaming of what once was, the Twins will give him another shot this spring, so 2010 could be his last chance at avoiding being a sad reminder that no surgery comes with guaranteed results.
Photo: Bruce Kluckhohn/Getty Images
Long Road Back Francisco Liriano Career Stats organization’s mid-winter fan event. Year Age Team W L ERA G GS IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB “Last year, I had a bad year. Physically, 2005 21 MIN 1 2 5.70 6 4 23.2 79 1.099 7.2 1.5 2.7 12.5 4.7 I wasn’t ready. Now I went home, 2006 22 MIN 12 3 2.16 28 16 121.0 208 1.000 6.6 0.7 2.4 10.7 4.5 rested for like two months, and started 2008 24 MIN 6 4 3.91 14 14 76.0 108 1.395 8.8 0.8 3.8 7.9 2.1 working out. My arm feels great.” 2009 25 MIN 5 13 5.80 29 24 136.2 76 1.551 9.7 1.4 4.3 8.0 1.9 2010 26 MIN 14 10 3.62 31 31 191.2 115 1.263 8.6 0.4 2.7 9.4 3.5 Indeed, the rest would pay off. Totals 38 32 3.97 108 89 549.0 109 1.288 8.4 0.8 3.2 9.3 2.9 Almost immediately out of the Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com gates, the velocity was back. Radar guns were consistently registering figures that the lefty hadn’t Famer, Chipper Jones. In their June 11 meeting, Jones failed touched in the past two years. In his first start back on the to record a hit in their three engagements—after bouncing a south side of Chicago, Liriano was pumping gas at 94 miles harmless grounder to third, he struck out swinging and then per hour and touching 96 at times. floated a lazy fly ball to center. Liriano also shutdown Jones’s It wouldn’t take him long to show the skeptics that he teammates, going eight innings, allowing five singles while was, in fact, the real deal again. Even the competition was striking out 11 Braves. offering glowing reviews of Liriano’s performances. “Liriano was as good as advertised,” commended the On April 27, Liriano had shut down the Tigers in Braves third baseman last June. “He’s got a really good slider, Comerica Park for eight innings, outdueling Detroit’s ace, and he threw a lot of them. He threw some disappearing slidJustin Verlander, while striking out 10. One of his victims, ers. He threw some almost Randy Johnson-type sliders.” third baseman Brandon Inge, who had struck out twice in the Having a pitch compared to one of the game’s all-time contest, was thoroughly impressed by this Liriano nouveau. greats—like Bert Blyleven’s curveball or Roger Clemens’s “I remember coming back to the dugout and talking to fastball or Johnson’s slider—is not a description to be taken the guys, and saying, ‘That’s the best I’ve ever seen him, even lightly. Johnson, who used his slider to dispatch 4,875 strikewhen he was first coming up in ’06,’ ” Inge told USA Today’s out victims in his 22-year career, spun one of baseball’s most Pat Borzi. “He was throwing his fastball 95, 96 [miles per inhumane, cold-blooded sliders. That “Randy Johnson-type hour]. He was throwing his slider, making some like cutters slider” is one of the keys to Liriano’s bounce back. and some that were really nasty, almost like Randy Johnson’s When Liriano first burst onto the scene in 2006, his slider in his prime. And on top of that, he’s throwing the starts became must-see events for Twins fans. Spectators were change-up. That’s tough to do.” mesmerized by the 22-year-old’s ability to make some of the Equally impressed by Liriano’s stuff was future Hall of game’s best hitters look so overmatched. The source of this dominance stemmed from his infallible slider. Everyone knew the slider was coming and yet they were powerless to do anything about it. It dropped sharply under the swings of righthanders while running away from lefthanders. According to data from Inside Edge, Liriano put up some eye-popping numbers with his slider that season. Opponents swung at nearly 60% of his sliders (57.1%) in 2006, but those that did offer at the pitch missed on almost half of their attempts (47.9% swingand-miss percentage). Using FanGraphs.com’s pitch value measurement, his slider was worth 23 runs above average—second among all sliders, trailing only Detroit’s Jeremy Bonderman (25.4). In fact, it was so lethal, that it was the fourth most valuTwins pitching coach Rick Anderson helped Francisco Liriano work through able pitch in baseball behind teammate some of his mechanical and mental issues on the mound.
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“He’s attacking the strike zone, and he’s getting ahead in the counts,” Morris told Hartman. “And he’s the kind of guy that’s got that dominating, electrifying stuff when he throws strikes. He’s struggled when he gets behind hitters and has to throw the ball over; that is the way most pitchers are. But he’s really on a roll right now.” Working ahead in the count was a practice that had escaped Liriano in 2008 and 2009. Unlike his breakout 2006 season, where he stalked the strike zone and quickly put his opponent at a disadvantage, Liriano routinely fell behind hitters after his Tommy John surgery. After posting a first-pitch strike rate of 60.9% in ’06, his ability to get ahead plummeted greatly. From 2008 to 2009, he managed a first-pitch strike only 52.8% of the time, significantly lower than the 58% league average. Understandably, The 2006 Liriano was so dominating that he earned the last spot on because he fell behind in the count more the All-Star Game roster, voted in by the fans. frequently, his walk rate spiked from 6.8% of all Johan Santana’s change-up (26.5 runs above average), Brandon batters in 2006 to 10.3% in 2008–09. Webb’s sinking fastball (26.0), and Bonderman’s slider. Last season, however, with his added confidence in his From 2008 through 2009, Liriano’s slider lost its luster. three-pitch repertoire, Liriano reconnected with the zone and It was more of a Randy Flores-type slider than a Johnson one. got the drop on opponents more quickly. By beginning with While still an above-average pitch, like his fastball, Liriano a first-pitch strike 61.7% of the time, he trimmed down his had lost three miles per hour and some of the vicious bite. walk rate to 7.2%. The other advantage of getting out front of The results were good, not great. Opponents swung at 48% the opponents was affording him the luxury of spinning more of his sliders, a noticeable drop partly related to his inconsisof his sliders. tent control and partly due to a more hittable fastball, but like Working in unison, Liriano’s clean bill of health, his 2006, he still registered a high swing-and-miss percentage harnessed command, his awe-inspiring slider, and renewed (42.2%). self-assurance propelled his career back on track. The Meanwhile, in 2010, Liriano used his slider more. Not strikeout rate crept northward while the walk rate dropped only that, but he was throwing a couple variations of the considerably. After opponents had taken to the sky on him pitch: one with more of a cutter action and the devastating in ’08 and ’09, Liriano transitioned back into the ground wipe-out slider. This tactic produced totals somewhere ball pitcher he had been during his breakout season. This, of between his 2006 and 2008–09 numbers, as opponents swung course, led to fewer home runs surrendered. at 52% of his sliders—a product of throwing more in the Not surprisingly, because of his 14–10 record with a zone—and his swing-and-miss rate actually surpassed his 3.62 ERA in 31 starts, Liriano earned the honor of being the 2006 results (48% swing-and-miss percentage). American League’s Comeback Player of the Year. Not long The pitch was once again at the game’s pinnacle in the ago, people were considering the 27-year-old an afterthought slider category, at least by FanGraphs.com’s standards, as his 19 for the Twins rotation, already asterisking his 2006 campaign runs above average paced all sliders. This was an impressive as a flash in the pan. Now he’s encroaching on ace status and renaissance, but his slider’s success would not have been possetting his sights on the Cy Young. sible without his control paving the way. What a difference a year makes. MSP After Liriano had rattled off 21 consecutive scoreless innings spanning three outings in late July and early August, Parker Hageman is a founding member of TwinsCentric. He has contributed bringing his record to 10–7 with a 3.18 ERA, Minneapolis to the TwinsCentric GM Handbooks, The Hardball Times season previews, Star-Tribune columnist Sid Hartman caught up with Twins GameDay’s Dugout Splinters, and was a consulting writer for Inside Edge. radio commentator and former pitching great Jack Morris on You can find more of his Twins analysis at his website, www.OverTheBaggy. his opinion of the lefty’s resurgence. Blogspot.com.
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Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images
2011 MINNESOTA TWINS