ALL-AROUND SUPERSTAR by Maple Street Press

ALL-AROUND SUPERSTAR Traditional labels don’t fit Carl Crawford by Dave Cameron

erhaps more than any other profession, baseball players strive to earn labels. For each potential job on a team, there is a pedestal that can be reached that will earn you a title of distinction; starting pitchers want to be an Ace, lumbering sluggers hope to be a team’s Big Bat, and utility players fight to earn respect as Energy Guys. Proven Veterans, Clutch Hitters, Reliable Closers—all of these labels are affixed to players at different points in their careers, and once they earn one of these tags, they wear it like a merit badge. This system of labeling is one of the reasons why Carl Crawford is viewed as something of an enigma; he simply doesn’t fit into any of the predetermined categories that we have arbitrarily decided to place players into. His game is built around speed, but he doesn’t walk much and prefers not to hit first in the lineup, so we can’t give him the True Lead-off Hitter moniker. He is one of the rangiest outfielders in baseball, but since he plays left field, we can’t call him a Defensive Wizard. He has some pop in his bat, but not anywhere near enough power to get labeled as a Middle-of-the-Order Bat. He is an outcast of the system and, as such, is not often given the credit he is due. Despite the unique collection of skills, Crawford is legitimately one of the game’s premier talents, and the Red Sox did well to stick him with the one label that actually matters: Impact Player.

Carl Crawford is one of the best all-around players in MLB, able to win games on offense, defense, and the base paths. Over at FanGraphs, we have a system of valuing players called Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Originally developed by statistician Tom Tango (who is currently employed by the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays), WAR assembles a player’s value at the plate, on the bases, and in the field. This value is expressed in terms of wins added over what a team would expect if that player got hurt and had to call up a guy from Triple A to take his place. Darnell McDonald, for example, is the perfect example of a replacement player. For a Red Sox outfielder, WAR could essentially be referred to as Wins Above Darnell McDonald. Since breaking into the league back in 2002, Crawford has amassed +34.5 WAR or an average of +3.8 wins per 600 plate appearances. For reference, a league average player is around +2 wins per season, an All-Star is around +3.5 wins, and an MVP candidate is around +5 wins per year. Crawford’s career average falls squarely in the realm of established All-Star, but that undersells his abilities, as he Position Players by WAR, 2009–2010 Player

WAR

Albert Pujols

+16.0

Evan Longoria

+14.2

Ryan Zimmerman

+13.9

Joe Mauer

+13.1

Chase Utley

+12.8

Carl Crawford

+12.5

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broke into the league as a raw 20-year-old. He’s developed into a significantly better player as he’s entered his prime, and his marks in 2009 (+5.7) and 2010 (+6.9) put him among the league’s elite. As you can see in the table, the best players in the game are those who can provide value on both sides of the lines. The top six players in WAR are among the best defenders in the game at their respective positions, which provides value on top of their already outstanding offensive contributions. There is a reason that scouts have long been enamored with so-called Five-Tool Players; they understood that players who created runs at the plate and saved them in the field were more valuable than specialists who earn their keep only by doing one or the other. Crawford has blossomed into perhaps the game’s preeminent all-around player. In the last two years, he’s hit .306, launched 34 home runs, stolen 106 bases, and by a metric called Ultimate Zone Rating (one of the most advanced defensive systems publicly available), he’s saved 36 more runs than an average defensive left fielder over that timeframe. He’s not the best in baseball in any one of those categories, but no other player offers the broad base of skills that Crawford brings to the table. His ability to succeed in all facets of the game is what allows him to be as good or better than players who have received more notoriety for specializing in one or two skills. For instance, let’s compare him to Mark Teixeira, the slugging Yankees first baseman who was courted heavily by the Red Sox before signing with New York for $180 million over eight seasons. Teixeira is the classic star first baseman, a switch-hitter who hits for average and power while drawing enough walks to be among the league leaders in on-base percentage. Like Crawford, he was given his first major league starting job in 2003, so their careers have essentially overlapped. Teixeira was a more polished player upon arriving—he got to the big leagues at age 23 after spending three seasons at Georgia Tech refining his skills. In his eight years in the majors, Teixeira has been one of the game’s best sluggers, hitting 275 home runs and drawing 616 walks. His career line of a .377 on-base percentage and .536 slugging percentage dwarf the marks that Crawford has put up (.337 and .444, respectively). And yet, despite reaching the majors as a college-trained star in the making and quickly establishing himself as one of the game’s best first baseman, Teixeira’s career WAR of +36.3 is only marginally higher than Crawford’s +34.5. While Teixeira has garnered quite a bit of glory, Crawford has essentially been his equal since breaking into the league. This illustrates the value of things beyond walks and home runs. Teixeira crushes Crawford in these two categories,

Photo previous page: G. Fiume/Getty Images Photo this page: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

THE 2011 OLDE TOWNE TEAM

Photo: J. Meric/Getty Images

All-Around Superstar but Crawford makes up the gap in base running (394 adalong with it, some of his value will erode. He is unlikely to ditional stolen bases) and defense (125 more runs saved by sustain the kinds of performances into his thirties that he has UZR, once you account for the difference in position). These produced the last two seasons. However, the timeframe at two areas of the game might not receive as much adulation, which this aging is expected to kick in and the severity of the but there is value to be had in running, both on the bases and decline is often overstated. in the field, and no one is better than Crawford at producing Crawford is very young for a player with eight full years value from his legs. in the big leagues, having just turned 29 back in August. Even In fact, over his career, Crawford has gotten more with a seven-year commitment, the Red Sox have agreed to of his WAR value from his fielding (119.2 runs) than his pay Crawford only through his age-35 season, and historical offense (99.2 runs). At first glance, moving from the spacious comparisons suggest that he should maintain a good portion Tropicana Field to the short left field in Fenway would of his speed through that stage of his career. In fact, studies remove a lot of the value Crawford brings with the glove. show that players with Crawford’s skill set actually age better But Crawford will play only half of his games at Fenway, and than most other types of players and are often more produceven there, recent history suggests that there will be a good tive later in their careers than players who are already slow by opportunity for Crawford to show off his glovework (see the time they get to 30. sidebar on page 45). In many ways, this counterintuitive notion actually makes One other nice feature of the Wins Above Replacement perfect sense. Players who rely heavily on speed as an aspect system is that it allows us to measure what the going market of their games are often in the best physical condition of rate is for wins. In general, we see that free agency creates a any players in the game. They are naturally gifted athletes, fairly predictable market, and by using the WAR model, we but they also work hard to maintain low weight levels and can generally predict with some accuracy what free agents will flexibility, which allow them to retain the speed they were sign for given an accepted market rate. born with. Players like Crawford have to keep their bodies in As the economy has started to grow again and MLB peak physical condition in order to get the most out of their teams have found themselves with cash on hand left over style of play. from generous television contracts, we have seen the price The conditioning that speedsters put in earlier in their of a win jump to around $5 million dollars apiece. At a $20 careers leads to healthier bodies in their thirties. In every million average annual salary, the Red Sox are essentially other part of life, we acknowledge this as a truism—there is a valuing Crawford as a four-win player, and with a career average of +3.8 wins per season, that is right in line with the deal the Red Sox handed him. The fact that so much of Crawford’s value is derived by his ability to run has been the other source of consternation surrounding the contract the Red Sox gave him this winter. Even for those who accept that Crawford is legitimately one of the game’s most valuable players, there is a sense of fear about what might happen to his ability to produce as he gets older and slower. The core of Crawford’s game is built around his speed, and if you take that aspect away, he becomes a pretty ordinary player. It is true that Crawford will Even though he plays left field, Crawford is one of the likely lose speed as he ages, and most valuable defensive outfielders in baseball. © 2011 Maple Street Press, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

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THE 2011 OLDE TOWNE TEAM

His value may be non-traditional, but Boston got an elite player in Carl Crawford.

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Kenny Lofton was an outstanding player until age 34, when he finally began to lose enough speed to significantly impact his value. He never lost all of his value, though, and was still a quality player through his final season in the league, despite being 40-years-old. If we go back further in history, we find an even more encouraging comparison, however. Through age 27, Joe Morgan had simply been a nice player. He was fast and had gap power, but had not yet reached an elite level. He made two All-Star teams in his first seven years. At age 28, it all began to click, and he went on one of the great runs in the history of the game—from 28 to 35, Morgan hit .288, whacked 152 home runs, stole 406 bases, made the All-Star team eight consecutive years, won five Gold Gloves and a pair of MVPs. It was that run that cemented him as one of the best second basemen to ever play the game. Crawford doesn’t have Morgan’s preternatural ability to make contact and he doesn’t walk nearly as much, so I’m not suggesting that he’s headed for a career finish that will make him an inner-circle Hall of Famer, but Morgan does illustrate the point quite well—players with this type of gap-power, high-speed, great defense skill set can often sustain a lot of value well into their mid-30s. Eventually, Carl Crawford will slow down and lose a chunk of what makes him such a great player today. It just won’t happen as quickly as the skeptics think it will, and by the time it does, he will likely have earned the contract the Red Sox have given him. Crawford is by no means a bargain, and there is risk inherent in any long-term deal. This deal could go south, especially if he blows a hamstring or tears some ligaments in his knee rounding a base. As with any deal that stretches well into the future, the Red Sox are betting against the risk of injury, but that is the gamble that teams must take to acquire premium free agent talent. The goal is to acquire the best players possible in order to make the reward justify the risk. With Crawford’s ability to produce value in many different ways—and the fact that he’s younger than most free agents who sign these kinds of deals—he is an ideal candidate for a long, expensive contract. Rather than being scared of what might happen, Boston fans should be excited over the addition of one of the game’s most dynamic players, and look forward to having an elite left fielder patrolling the space in front of the Green Monster once again. MSP

Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he and his team of writers find new ways to look at the game we all love. He is also a co-founder of USSMariner and contributes regularly to ESPN and the Wall Street Journal.

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images

reason why doctors encourage us all to eat well and run a lot. Physically fit people simply have their bodies hold up over time better than those carrying some extra weight around and this extends to baseball players as well. If you need a current example, look no further than Seattle right fielder Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro is perhaps the closest contemporary peer Crawford has, as both provide value in similar ways—high batting average, lots of stolen bases, and great defense from a corner outfield spot. Ichiro just completed his age-36 season, and he has shown few visible signs of significant loss of speed from when he broke into the league as a 27-year-old. In fact, three of the four highest stolen base totals of his career came in his age-32, 34, and 36 seasons. Like Crawford, Ichiro’s entire game is based around his legs, but because he has worked hard to keep them in good shape, he has seen little loss of ability in his core skills. Other speed-based players have also played well late into their careers. Rickey Henderson stole 612 bases after turning 30, won an MVP at 31, and was still one of the game’s best players at 34. Even as he slowed, he was still a terrific player, and few remember that he stole 66 bases (leading the league in the process) at age 39. Likewise,

HOW VALUABLE IS DEFENSE IN LEFT FIELD AT FENWAY? by Dave Cameron

Background photo: J. Meric/Getty Images Top-right photo: Michael Ivins/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

ow, I realize that there is a perception that left field defense doesn’t really matter much for the Red Sox, since the Green Monster cuts down on the amount of room they have to cover and turns a decent amount of potential fly outs into base hits due to its proximity to the plate. The Boston media has promoted this line of thought while defending defensive negatives like Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay over the years, but the reality is that defense in left field still matters a great deal, even for a team that plays half of their games at Fenway. The big wall that Crawford will now stand in front of 81 times does not eliminate the value of lateral speed. While there is less room to cover before getting to the Monster, the horizontal distance between the foul lines is standardized in Major League Baseball, and there is just as much room going from foul line to alley in Boston as there is in any other park. Balls hit down the line or into the left-center field gap are still plays that a fast left fielder like Crawford can make frequently. For instance, the Red Sox have used both defensive butchers (Manny Ramirez being the obvious example) and speedy fly-catchers (Jacoby Ellsbury, Bill Hall) in left field over the last decade. If the Monster really did make range irrelevant, we’d expect these players to have performed similarly in turning opportunities into outs. That is not at all what we actually see. From 2002 to 2008, Ramirez played 6,480 innings in left field for the Red Sox. During that time, 1,568 balls were hit into his “zones,” where he was judged to have an opportunity to make a play on the ball. He caught just 953 of those balls, a dismal 60.8% mark that was easily the worst in baseball during that time.

During his last two seasons in Boston, Ramirez ended up sharing the position with Ellsbury. Same field, same pitching staff, same wall, and during the 537 innings that Ellsbury patrolled in front of the Monster, he has caught 106 of the 117 balls that were judged to be in his zone—90.6%. Now, 500 innings isn’t a large sample, and it’s unlikely that Ellsbury would be able to sustain that rate over a longer period of time, but it is almost exactly equal to the rate (91.1%) that Ellsbury has turned balls into outs in center field. If we’re to believe that the big wall is the reason why Ramirez couldn’t catch anything, we’d have to come up with an explanation for why it didn’t seem to affect Ellsbury at all. We could also look at Ramirez’s numbers after leaving Fenway for more evidence. After all, if the Wall really did neutralize defensive value, we’d have expected to see a big change in his numbers once he got traded to the Dodgers. In reality, we don’t see that at all. In 2007, his last full year playing left field in Boston, he posted a UZR/150 (a rate metric that expresses defensive value in terms of chances per 150 games) of -20.9. In 2008, after arriving in LA, he posted a UZR/150 of -19.0, and in 2010, that number went right back to -20.9. Ramirez posted nearly the exact same defensive numbers as a member of the Dodgers as he did as the Red Sox left fielder. Left field in Fenway is different than in other parks, but it is not so different as to change the simple fact that fast guys catch more balls than slow guys. Crawford is the fastest left fielder in baseball, and that won’t change just because he’s got a really tall wall behind him for 81 games a year. MSP

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THE 2011 OLDE TOWNE TEAM

Carl Crawford #13 Team TB

154 600 110 184

RBI

297 104

Age: 29 • Position: LF Bats: Left • Throws: Left

IBB

CS GDP AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

RC BAbip

Def+/- DRS*

.307 .356 .495 .851 120 .342

*DRS = Defensive Runs Saved

Well, this is going to be fun… The moment the stunning news broke late on the evening of Dec. 8 that the longtime Ray would switch allegiances in the AL East by signing a seven-year, $142 million free agent contract with the Red Sox, the question had already been posed… Have the Sox ever had a more dynamic top-of-the-order threat?… Certainly there has never been a speedier 1-2 tandem in Sox history than Ellsbury and Crawford, who have combined to win six of the last eight AL stolen base titles… He had been with the Rays organization since 1999, left Tampa as the franchise’s all-time leader in batting (.296), doubles (211), triples (105), runs (765), and stolen bases (409)… Obviously has a lead-off hitter’s skill set, but prefers to bat second or third, and hasn’t hit leadoff in two years… Some perceive the contract as an overpay given that it’s for $50 million more than the second-mostlucrative contract in baseball history for a player who has never hit 20 homers (Crawford had 19 last year)… But he is a spectacular defensive outfielder and his skill set should age well… Not too many line drives should find their way between Crawford and Ellsbury in left-center… According to FanGraphs, the only players with a higher WAR the past two years are Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley.

HIT ZONES AVG top • SLG bottom

24%

34%

LEADING INDICATORS Category P/PA Swing % Contact % Hard Hit %

Player 3.78 49.3% 82.8% 13.8%

MLB Rk 92 24 63 134

MLB Avg 3.83 44.3% 80.4% 16.0%

Faced: How often a batter faced each pitch type. High (pink)/Low (blue): Relative to Overall%. Outcomes of Pitch Type: How often the five possible outcomes occurred for each pitch type. Swing In Zone/Swing Out Zone: How often a batter swung at pitches in or out of the strike zone. Contact In Zone/Contact Out Zone: How often swings resulted in contact.

67% .273 .682

.355 .677

.343 .457

.323 .710

.315 .574

.377 .710

.238 .524

.358 .528

.298 .526

25% GROUND BALLS 48.2%

31%

batting average over .300

COLD ZONE batting average under .250

38%

P OW E R Z O NE slugging percentage over .500

43% FLY BALLS 35.5%

H OT Z O N E

C H A S E Z O NE

32%

more than 33.3% pitches swung at

LINE DRIVES 16.3%

HR/FB 10.6%

Outcomes of Pitch Type PITCH TYPES Fastballs Cutters Curves Sliders Change-ups Splitters Other Overall

SPLIT

Faced 60% 5% 9% 13% 10% 1%

35% 34% 33% 37% 37% 30%

16% 9% 14% 12% 8% 4%

–

35%

14%

Ball

Called Strike Swing Strike

HR RBI

Total

154 657 600 184 30

Home Away

76 78

305 277 83 12 352 323 101 18

6 7

11 8

vs Left n/a 221 203 52 8 vs Right n/a 436 397 132 22

3 10

1st Half 85 2nd Half 69

6 7

368 330 106 21 289 270 78 9

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19% 19% 23% 14% 24% 22%

Swing In Zone 68% 78% 69% 72% 77% 100%

Swing Out Zone 31% 39% 40% 37% 40% 43%

Contact In Zone 89% 90% 90% 86% 89% 67%

Contact Out Zone 79% 69% 76% 55% 75% 67%

AVG .310 .367 .282 .221 .343 .636

SLG .475 .567 .479 .455 .448 1.818

19%

70%

34%

89%

74%

.307

.495

Foul

In Play

7% 11% 9% 14% 10% 22%

21% 25% 19% 21% 20% 4%

20%

BB% PAT HBP AB/HR TB

104

17.3 7.0 .050

42 48

46 58

23 23

16.6 7.6 .052 18.0 6.6 .047

1 2

4 15

33 57

46 58

16 30

22.7 7.3 .056 14.6 6.9 .046

11 8

50 40

54 50

31 15

16.4 8.5 .059 18.5 5.2 .038

SLG

OPS

BAbip

31.6 297 .188 10.3

.307 .356 .495

.851

.342

25.2 140 .206 10.5 40.4 157 .173 10.2

.300 .352 .505 .313 .360 .486

.857 .846

.323 .359

1 2

50.8 78 .128 7.4 26.5 219 .219 11.8

.256 .312 .384 .332 .379 .552

.696 .930

.312 .357

2 1

30.0 172 .200 11.5 33.8 125 .174 8.9

.321 .380 .521 .289 .326 .463

.901 .789

.354 .327

ISO XBH% AVG

OBP

Photo: J. Meric/Getty Images

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