09 - Enrollment Projection Summary

Enrollment Summary GREATER LATROBE SCHOOL DISTRICT Updated 2020-21 DISTRIBUTED APRIL 2021

ISSUED BY Department of Facilities, Operations & Planning REPRESENTATIVE Kurt R Thomas, AIA, NCARB, LEED AP BD+C Director of Facilities, Operations & Planning

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021

BOARD OF SCHOOL DIRECTORS Eric Hauser, President Paul McCommons, Vice-President Heidi Kozar Steve LoCascio Susan Mains Merle Musick William Palmer Cathy Sarraf Michael Zorch, M.D. SCHOOL AUTHORITY Carl Baumeister Gene Leonard, Ed. D. Keith Visconti Barry Banker Chuck Gray SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS Georgia Teppert, Ed.D. ADMINISTRATION Michael Porembka - Assistant Superintendent Daniel Watson - Business Administrator Becki Pellis - Director of Curriculum, Instruction, and Technology Laurie Golobish - Director of Pupil Services Eugene Joe - Student Support Services Coordinator Mark Mears - Director of Athletics Jillian Meloy - Director of Food Services Jessica Golden - Director of Development and Center of Student Creativity

1

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021

Introduction The Facilities Department has conducted a preliminary enrollment projection summary that includes historical and current grade-level enrollment, capacity analysis and future projections. The main purpose of this preliminary study is to provide a tool to help the District decision-making in addressing the long-term facility needs of the District.

Variables that Influence Future Enrollments The typical six sources of current and projected school district enrollment are: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Live births within the school district and their eventual enrollment (PK-K) in the district New household population with children who move to the district New population that move to the district who are at child-bearing age and plan to begin a family Enrollment of students from non-public schools or from homeschooling settings District program and academic intervention changes that may increase the success of the school district in keeping enrollment to stay till graduation Adjacent districts whose programs or academics may cause tuition students to attend Greater Latrobe School District

Building Capacity and Utilization The capacity of a school building is not a fixed number. Depending on the number of rooms, the occupants (number of students per classroom), and scheduling factors will cause the capacity to vary.

Typical capacity and/or class size per total enrollments similar to Greater Latrobe School District are the following: Grade Level Student per Classroom Grade

Desirable Capacity Students Per Classroom

Max Capacity Calculation Students Per Classroom

K-3

20

25

4-6

22

25

7-9

24

30

10 -12

28

30

2

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021

It is important to note that classroom sizes are not the same as the building or fire code occupant loads. These loads should not be misunderstood to determine the proper student per classroom capacities.

Building Capacities In addition to calculating capacity based on existing classroom spaces, additional analysis of specialized classrooms (art, music, and physical education) and intervention spaces (Special Edu, EL, Title 1) need to be identified and will not necessarily fall within these typical class sizes.

Current Enrollment Day three enrollments for the 2020-2021 school year: K

1

2

3

4

5

6

BES

70

60

75

73

58

80

89

LES

82

90

98

99

68

90

104

MES

67

74

78

75

93

91

90

Subtotal

219

224

251

247

219

261

283

JHS

7

8

271

309

SHS

1704 Total K-6

9

10

11

12

280

310

292

325

580 JHS

1207 SHS

3491 Total Students Total Student Populations for the Elementary Schools are as follows: Population

Design Capacity

Capacity Max

(k-3: 20/per, 4-6: 24/per)

(25/per)

Baggaley Elem (BES)

505

720

800

Latrobe Elementary (LES)

631

900

1025

Mountain View Elem (MES)

568

744

825

3

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021

Total Student Populations for the Secondary Schools are as follows: Population

Design Capacity

Capacity Max

(7-9: 24/per, 10-12: 28/per)

(30/per)

Junior High School*

580

1032

1290

Senior High School

1207

1120

1200

Note: Junior High School was configured as a 7-9 grade level building when designed; the Senior High a 10-12. A majority of ninth-grade students take courses at Junior High School.

Utilization Rate The utilization rate for each school site was determined by dividing enrollment by capacity. The preferred utilization rate, expressed as a percentage, falls between 80-percent and 95-percent.

Utilization by building for 2020-21 is summarized below. Acceptable utilization is marked in green; unacceptable utilization is marked in red. As portrayed, the District buildings do not currently fall into acceptable ranges.

Design Capacity Calculation

Max Capacity Calculation

Baggaley Elem (BES)

70%

63%

Latrobe Elementary (LES)

70%

62%

Mountain View Elem (MES)

76%

69%

Junior High School

56%

45%

Senior High School

107%

100%

This table presents that the capacities and utilization for each of the Elementary Schools can be considered outside the acceptable ranges. These buildings can increase population by approximately 10-to-25-percent to be within desired design capacities. Further, it can be determined that the Senior High School building footprint is not capable of a self-sustaining 9-12 configuration without significant increases in Classroom spaces.

4

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021

Historical Enrollment The enrollment data included in Chart 1 is for the Grade Band or level attendance for the years 2008-09 thru 2019-20. Chart 2 is Enrollment by Building for the same years.

5

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021

An examination of the historical District-Wide Enrollment at the grade-band level reveals that enrollment has been relatively stagnant over the last 10-years. The slight increase has been led by enrollment at the K-6 grades at Baggaley and Latrobe Elementary.

The Pennsylvania Department of Education The Pennsylvania Department of Education provides annual enrollment projections to assist School Districts to identify and proactively address issues related to anticipated enrollments. Projections are based on recent historic trends in births and trends in the progression of students from one grade to the next.

When using enrollment projections for planning purposes, it is important to be aware that the projection model uses only actual enrollments, births, and retention rates to formulate projections. Other factors which may exist in a particular school district, such as a significant change in new home building, may need to be considered in conjunction with the projections to most accurately estimate future enrollments.

The Chart above provides information on historical and projected enrollments on a statewide basis and by the Greater Latrobe School District. PDE reports are available on the following pages.

6

257

230

231

257

231

233

234

256

233

231

229

227

225

223

220

2015 - 2016

2016 - 2017

2017 - 2018

2018 - 2019

2019 - 2020

2020 - 2021

2021 - 2022

2022 - 2023

2023 - 2024

2024 - 2025

2025 - 2026

2026 - 2027

2027 - 2028

2028 - 2029

2029 - 2030

107653102

Greater Latrobe SD

K

YEAR

225

227

229

232

234

236

259

237

236

238

260

242

234

254

282

1

228

230

233

235

237

260

238

237

239

261

248

232

251

287

266

2

230

233

235

237

260

238

237

239

261

248

224

259

284

271

302

3

Enrollment Projections

233

235

237

260

238

237

239

261

248

224

262

281

269

305

285

4

236

238

261

239

238

240

262

249

225

263

284

266

312

283

309

5

240

263

241

240

242

264

251

227

265

286

278

307

282

310

295

6

7

282

303

312

353

323

8

266

244

243

245

267

254

230

268

289

281

244

243

245

267

254

230

268

289

281

311

Projection

311

281

304

311

352

Actual

Greater Latrobe SD 107653102

(717) 787-2644

Prepared by the Pennsylvania Department of Education

246

248

270

257

232

271

292

284

314

285

313

310

354

327

312

9

250

272

259

234

273

294

286

317

287

316

313

358

328

321

343

10

3131

3133

3168

3221

3265

3337

3379

3446

3486

3594

3671

3719

3796

3949

3995

Total

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

249

225

262

283

275

304

276

303

300

344

317

313

323

354

310

12

Department of Education, Data Quality Office

264

252

228

265

286

278

308

279

307

304

348

310

312

343

359

11

1202

1136

2024 - 2025

2029 - 2030

1.17352

1.05

1.03459

1.07021

2011

2017-18 to 2018-19

2018-19 to 2019-20

Average Rate

Retention Rate Used

2010

218

Year

Births

107653102

Greater Latrobe SD

0.92771

2016-17 to 2017-18

233

0.98712

Birth to K

2015-16 to 2016-17

Sources:

1372

1442

1509

K-5

1612

1706

1787

K-6

1878

1960

2098

K-7

2122

2190

2380

K-8

2368

2461

2693

K-9

3131

3337

3671

K-12

986

988

1155

5-8

750

748

871

6-8

510

484

593

7-8

996

1019

1184

6-9

756

755

906

7-9

249

2012

1.08213

1.08213

1.18721

0.97189

1.00429

1.16514

Birth to 1

219

2013

1.00554

1.00554

1.02479

0.99145

0.98819

1.01773

1 to 2

220

2014

1.00143

1.00143

0.96552

1.03187

0.98955

1.0188

2 to 3

218

2015

1.00089

1.00089

1.01158

0.98944

0.99262

1.00993

3 to 4

219

2016

239

2017

1.00386

1.00386

1.01068

0.98885

1.02295

0.99298

4 to 5

218

2018

1.0072

1.0072

1.04511

0.98397

0.99647

1.00324

5 to 6

Retention Rate by Grade by Year

214

2020

1.00158

1.00158

1.00356

0.99671

1.00322

1.00284

7 to 8

212

2021

1.01045

1.01045

1.033

0.99359

1.00283

1.01238

8 to 9

1519

1631

1884

7-12

9 to 10

1009

1147

1291

9-12

210

2022

1.00801

1.01322

1.00968

1.0113

1.00306

1.02885

1253

1377

1573

8-12

208

2023

0.97229

0.97229

0.97207

0.94512

0.97196

1

10 to 11

763

876

978

10-12

206

2024

0.98839

0.98839

1.02258

1.00321

0.94169

0.98607

11 to 12

Department of Education, Data Quality Office

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

| - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Projected Births - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - |

216

2019

1.01109

1.01109

1.01303

0.99645

0.98065

1.05424

6 to 7

1. Excludes students in full-time out-of-district special education, comprehensive AVTSs, charter schools, state-owned schools, consortium-operated alternative high schools, and juvenile correctional institutions.

2. Enrollment projections beyond five years are subject to errors in the lower grades resulting from inconsistencies between actual and projected live births and should be reviewed closely.

3. Four year old kindergarten students, if any, added to K enrollments.

4. Elementary and secondary ungraded students were distributed among the grades. Therefore, enrollments by grade may differ from those reported by the local education agencies.

1. Pennsylvania Information Management System (PIMS) 2. Resident Live Birth file supplied by the Division of Health Statistics, Pennsylvania Department of Health.

The Department of Health specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations or conclusions.

1225

2019 - 2020

Notes:

K-4

YEAR

Various Grade Groupings of the Enrollment Projections