09 - Enrollment Projection Summary

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Enrollment Summary

GREATER LATROBE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Updated 2020-21

DISTRIBUTED APRIL 2021

ISSUED BY Department of Facilities, Operations & Planning

REPRESENTATIVE

Kurt R Thomas, AIA, NCARB, LEED AP BD+C Director of Facilities, Operations & Planning

BOARD OF SCHOOL DIRECTORS

Eric Hauser, President

Paul McCommons, Vice-President

Heidi Kozar

Steve LoCascio

Susan Mains

Merle Musick

William Palmer

Cathy Sarraf

Michael Zorch, M.D.

SCHOOL AUTHORITY

Carl Baumeister

Gene Leonard, Ed. D.

Keith Visconti

Barry Banker

Chuck Gray

SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS

Georgia Teppert, Ed.D.

ADMINISTRATION

Michael Porembka - Assistant Superintendent

Daniel Watson - Business Administrator

Becki Pellis - Director of Curriculum, Instruction, and Technology

Laurie Golobish - Director of Pupil Services

Eugene Joe - Student Support Services Coordinator

Mark Mears - Director of Athletics

Jillian Meloy - Director of Food Services

Jessica Golden - Director of Development and Center of Student Creativity

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021
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Introduction

The Facilities Department has conducted a preliminary enrollment projection summary that includes historical and current grade-level enrollment, capacity analysis and future projections. The main purpose of this preliminary study is to provide a tool to help the District decision-making in addressing the long-term facility needs of the District

Variables that Influence Future Enrollments

The typical six sources of current and projected school district enrollment are:

1. Live births within the school district and their eventual enrollment (PK-K) in the district

2. New household population with children who move to the district

3 New population that move to the district who are at child-bearing age and plan to begin a family

4. Enrollment of students from non-public schools or from homeschooling settings

5. District program and academic intervention changes that may increase the success of the school district in keeping enrollment to stay till graduation

6. Adjacent districts whose programs or academics may cause tuition students to attend Greater Latrobe School District

Building Capacity and Utilization

The capacity of a school building is not a fixed number. Depending on the number of rooms, the occupants (number of students per classroom), and scheduling factors will cause the capacity to vary.

Typical capacity and/or class size per total enrollments similar to Greater Latrobe School District are the following:

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021
Grade Level Student per Classroom Grade Desirable Capacity Students Per Classroom Max Capacity Calculation Students Per Classroom K - 3 20 25 4 - 6 22 25 7 - 9 24 30 10 -12 28 30 2

It is important to note that classroom sizes are not the same as the building or fire code occupant loads. These loads should not be misunderstood to determine the proper student per classroom capacities.

Building Capacities

In addition to calculating capacity based on existing classroom spaces, additional analysis of specialized classrooms (art, music, and physical education) and intervention spaces (Special Edu, EL, Title 1) need to be identified and will not necessarily fall within these typical class sizes.

Current Enrollment

Day three enrollments for the 2020-2021 school year:

3491 Total Students

Total Student Populations for the Elementary Schools are as follows:

2020-2021
Enrollment Projection Summary
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 BES 70 60 75 73 58 80 89 LES 82 90 98 99 68 90 104 MES 67 74 78 75 93 91 90 Subtotal 219 224 251 247 219 261 283 JHS 271 309 SHS 280 310 292 325 1704 Total K-6 580 JHS 1207 SHS
Population Design Capacity (k-3: 20/per, 4-6: 24/per) Capacity Max (25/per) Baggaley Elem (BES) 505 720 800 Latrobe Elementary (LES) 631 900 1025 Mountain View Elem (MES) 568 744 825 3

Total Student Populations for the Secondary Schools are as follows:

Note: Junior High School was configured as a 7-9 grade level building when designed; the Senior High a 10-12. A majority of ninth-grade students take courses at Junior High School.

Utilization Rate

The utilization rate for each school site was determined by dividing enrollment by capacity. The preferred utilization rate, expressed as a percentage, falls between 80-percent and 95-percent.

Utilization by building for 2020-21 is summarized below. Acceptable utilization is marked in green; unacceptable utilization is marked in red. As portrayed, the District buildings do not currently fall into acceptable ranges.

This table presents that the capacities and utilization for each of the Elementary Schools can be considered outside the acceptable ranges. These buildings can increase population by approximately 10-to-25-percent to be within desired design capacities. Further, it can be determined that the Senior High School building footprint is not capable of a self-sustaining 9-12 configuration without significant increases in Classroom spaces.

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021
Population Design Capacity (7-9: 24/per, 10-12: 28/per) Capacity Max (30/per) Junior High School* 580 1032 1290 Senior High School 1207 1120 1200
Design Capacity Calculation Max Capacity Calculation Baggaley Elem (BES) 70% 63% Latrobe Elementary (LES) 70% 62% Mountain View Elem (MES) 76% 69% Junior High School 56% 45% Senior High School 107% 100%
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Historical Enrollment

The enrollment data included in Chart 1 is for the Grade Band or level attendance for the years 2008-09 thru 2019-20. Chart 2 is Enrollment by Building for the same years.

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021
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An examination of the historical District-Wide Enrollment at the grade-band level reveals that enrollment has been relatively stagnant over the last 10-years. The slight increase has been led by enrollment at the K-6 grades at Baggaley and Latrobe Elementary.

The Pennsylvania Department of Education

The Pennsylvania Department of Education provides annual enrollment projections to assist School Districts to identify and proactively address issues related to anticipated enrollments. Projections are based on recent historic trends in births and trends in the progression of students from one grade to the next.

When using enrollment projections for planning purposes, it is important to be aware that the projection model uses only actual enrollments, births, and retention rates to formulate projections. Other factors which may exist in a particular school district, such as a significant change in new home building, may need to be considered in conjunction with the projections to most accurately estimate future enrollments.

The Chart above provides information on historical and projected enrollments on a statewide basis and by the Greater Latrobe School District. PDE reports are available on the following pages

Enrollment Projection Summary 2020-2021
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Enrollment Projections Prepared by the Pennsylvania Department of Education (717) 787-2644 Greater Latrobe SD 107653102 YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total Actual 2015 -2016 257 282 266 302 285 309 295 352 323 312 343 359 310 3995 2016 -2017 230 254 287 271 305 283 310 311 353 327 321 343 354 3949 2017 -2018 231 234 251 284 269 312 282 304 312 354 328 312 323 3796 2018 -2019 257 242 232 259 281 266 307 281 303 310 358 310 313 3719 2019 -2020 231 260 248 224 262 284 278 311 282 313 313 348 317 3671 Projection 2020 -2021 233 238 261 248 224 263 286 281 311 285 316 304 344 3594 2021 -2022 234 236 239 261 248 225 265 289 281 314 287 307 300 3486 2022 -2023 256 237 237 239 261 249 227 268 289 284 317 279 303 3446 2023 -2024 233 259 238 237 239 262 251 230 268 292 286 308 276 3379 20242025 231 236 260 238 237 240 264 254 230 271 294 278 304 3337 2025 -2026 229 234 237 260 238 238 242 267 254 232 273 286 275 3265 2026 -2027 227 232 235 237 260 239 240 245 267 257 234 265 283 3221 2027 -2028 225 229 233 235 237 261 241 243 245 270 259 228 262 3168 2028 -2029 223 227 230 233 235 238 263 244 243 248 272 252 225 3133 2029 -2030 220 225 228 230 233 236 240 266 244 246 250 264 249 3131 Greater Latrobe SD Tuesday, September 8, 2020 Department of Education, Data Quality Office 107653102

1. Excludes students in full-time out-of-district special education, comprehensive AVTSs, charter schools, state-owned schools, consortium-operated alternative high schools, and juvenile correctional institutions.

2. Enrollment projections beyond five years are subject to errors in the lower grades resulting from inconsistencies between actual and projected live births and should be reviewed closely.

3. Four year old kindergarten students, if any, added to K enrollments.

4. Elementary and secondary ungraded students were distributed among the grades. Therefore, enrollments by grade may differ from those reported by the local education agencies.

1. Pennsylvania Information Management System (PIMS)

Notes: Sources:

2. Resident Live Birth file supplied by the Division of Health Statistics, Pennsylvania Department of Health. The Department of Health specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations or conclusions.

Various Grade Groupings of the Enrollment Projections YEAR 2019 -2020 K-4 1225 K-5 1509 K-6 1787 K-7 2098 K-8 2380 K-9 2693 K-12 3671 5-8 1155 6-8 871 7-8 593 6-9 1184 7-9 906 7-12 1884 8-12 1573 9-12 1291 10-12 978 2024 -2025 1202 1442 1706 1960 2190 2461 3337 988 748 484 1019 755 1631 1377 1147 876 2029 -2030 1136 1372 1612 1878 2122 2368 3131 986 750 510 996 756 1519 1253 1009 763
2018-19 to 2019-20 2017-18 to 2018-19 2016-17 to 2017-18 2015-16 to 2016-17 Birth to K 1.05 1.17352 0.92771 0.98712 Birth to 1 1.18721 0.97189 1.00429 1.16514 1 to 2 1.02479 0.99145 0.98819 1.01773 2 to 3 0.96552 1.03187 0.98955 1.0188 5 to 6 4 to 5 3 to 4 1.04511 1.01068 1.01158 0.98397 0.98885 0.98944 0.99647 1.02295 0.99262 1.00324 0.99298 1.00993 Retention Rate by Grade by Year 6 to 7 1.01303 0.99645 0.98065 1.05424 7 to 8 1.00356 0.99671 1.00322 1.00284 8 to 9 1.033 0.99359 1.00283 1.01238 9 to 10 1.00968 1.0113 1.00306 1.02885 10 to 11 0.97207 0.94512 0.97196 1 11 to 12 1.02258 1.00321 0.94169 0.98607 Average Rate 1.03459 1.08213 1.00554 1.00143 1.00089 1.00386 1.0072 1.01109 1.00158 1.01045 1.01322 0.97229 0.98839 Retention Rate Used 1.07021 1.08213 1.00554 1.00143 1.00089 1.00386 1.0072 1.01109 1.00158 1.01045 1.00801 0.97229 0.98839 Year Births 218 2010 233 2011 249 2012 219 2013 220 2014 218 2015 219 2016 239 2017 218 2018 216 2019 214 2020 212 2021 210 2022 208 2023 206 2024 | -------------------ProjectedBirths-------------------| Greater Latrobe SD Tuesday, September 8, 2020 Department of Education, Data Quality Office 107653102

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