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When Will Life Return to Normal ?
Welcome to 2021, aka Purgatory by Graham Lawton, Michael Le Page, Donna Lu, Clare Wilson and Adam Vaughan IF 2020 felt hellish, be warned that we aren›t out of the fire yet, even if we are moving in the right direction. Welcome to 2021, aka purgatory. There is little doubt that vaccines hold the key to ending the pandemic. A recent modelling study predicted that vaccinating just 40 per cent of US adults over the course of 2021 would reduce the coronavirus infection rate by around 75 per cent and cuthospitalisations and deaths from covid19- by more than 80 per cent. But all this is still some way off. In the meantime, we will have to adapt to a middle ground where some people are protected but not others. As Adam Kleczkowski, a mathematical biologist at the University of Strathclyde, UK, points out, supplies of the various vaccines are limited, distributing them is challenging, immunity takes a few weeks to develop and the protection they offer isn›t 100 per cent. In the northern hemisphere, he says, the most likely scenario is a third wave of covid19- in the new year, requiring further lockdowns and restrictions for up to five months. «Realistically, we›re in for a longer ride than we hope for,» he says.
Tim Spector at King›s College London, who leads the Covid19- Symptom Study inthe UK, also predicts a third wave. But if lots of healthcare workers and vulnerable people have been vaccinated, the mortality rate will be lower and the pressure on the healthcare system lessened, he said at a recent Royal Society of Medicine seminar. The upsides of ever-widening vaccination will kick in around April, he said: «I›m optimistic that if we can just get our mental state together until Easter, we can hang on in there.» There are still many things we don›t understand about this virus, however (see»Unanswered questions», page 10), andwe may well be in for some surprises in the coming year that throw that trajectory off course. As this magazine went to press, for example, there was widespread speculation about the impact of a new variant of the SARS-CoV2- coronavirus circulating in the UK that may be more highly transmissible. In Australia, the goal will be to keep the virus from resurging as the summer fades into autumn, says epidemiologist Catherine Bennett at Deakin University in Melbourne. A recent outbreak in Sydney has led to newrestrictions. Nobody says purgatory is fun, but it does end. In the meantime, these are some of the big issues we face in the months ahead.
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08/01/21
