VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR
STEP
2
Conduct analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative) A more technical guideline on how to do a quantitative assessment is not included in this module as it is a technical skill that is assigned to statisticians and those that have knowledge of statistical packages. We will have to bear with data that is available in the local area for both diseases and climate data.
Quantitative Assessment Vulnerability is composed of the three elements adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate variability. This assessment’s quantitative aspect looks at the sensitivity and exposure of elements utilizing a statistical unit analysis relating the vulnerability of climate-sensitive diseases as it interacts with climate parameters relative to humidity, temperature and rainfall over time. Sensitivity and exposure can be measured with the distribution of the climate-sensitive diseases described across time, place and demographic characteristics. The statistical analysis and modelling done to project change in disease incidence concomitant with change in climate factors is a proxy tool to estimate the sensitivity of the system to climate variability and change. Data gathering Data on climate factors and identified climate sensitive diseases will be collected through records reviewed from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the DOH-National Epidemiology Center (NEC), respectively. Data on disease can be gathered from the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (NESS) of the DOH-NEC, the official information system being used to pick up cases on selected communicable diseases. Data from twenty years plus back will be collected (covering 1999-2011). As the Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (PIDSR) is a
relatively new information system intended to be an improvement of the surveillance system of the DOH, it is still in its early stages of establishment in the project implementation areas as of the conduct of this study, thus, data from the PIDSR will be used at a later time. Baseline data presently come from two sources for the data on sentinel diseases at the Department of Health/National Epidemiology Center. These are: A) Notifiable Disease Reporting (NDR) is a passive system but has a wide coverage The information is limited by reports coming in from rural health units and selected hospitals. Further, there are no case definitions used by reporting units. Currently, this is being enhanced into the Philippine Integrated Disease and Response System (PIDSR), but they are still at the training phase. B) National Epidemic Sentinel Surveillance System (NESSS) actively monitors 13 diseases of epidemic potential. The system uses case definitions so the consistency is high. However, reporting units (sentinel sites) are not as widespread as the NDR. This is the national module of the PIDSR. Data sources from the NESSS are available for the last 20-50 years (1999-2011) on five of the notifiable diseases that are deemed climate sensitive: malaria, dengue, schistosomiasis, typhoid, cholera. We will only use the NESSS which has more robustness due to its available case definition, but the NDR – through the FHSIS can act as far second backup/proxy but is less reliable for its being passive and having inadequate case definition.
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