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Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2

Modules 4-9


Climate-Smart

Planning and Management Training Program Modules

Volume 2 Modules 4-9


IMPRINT ABOUT THE CLIMATE CHANGE COMMISSION The Climate Change Commission, an independent and autonomous body that has the same status as that of a national government agency, is under the Office of the President of the Philippines. It is the lead policy-making body of the government which is tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate the programs and action plans of the government relating to climate change pursuant to the provisions of the Republic Act No. 9729 or the Climate Change Act as amended by Republic Act No. 10174 or the People’s Survival Fund. ADDRESS Room 238 Mabini Hall, Malacañang Compound, San Miguel, Manila, Philippines CONTACT T: +63.2.735.3069 | 736.3144 E: info@climate.gov.ph www.climate.gov.ph ABOUT THE GLOBAL GREEN GROWTH INSTITUTE (GGGI) GGGI is a new kind of international organization — interdisciplinary, multi-stakeholder and driven by the needs of emerging and developing countries. It has been established by several forward-thinking governments to maximize the opportunity for “bottom up” (i.e., country- and business-led) progress on climate change and environmental challenges within core economic policy and business strategies. GGGI is dedicated to pioneering and diffusing a new model of economic growth in developing and emerging countries, known as “green growth,” that simultaneously targets key aspects of economic performance, such as poverty reduction, job creation and social inclusion, and those of environmental sustainability, such as mitigation of climate change and biodiversity loss and security of access to clean energy and water. ADDRESS 19F Jeongdong Building, 15-5 Jeong-dong, Jung-gu Seoul 100-784, Republic of Korea CONTACT T: +82-2-2096-9991 F: +82-2-2096-9990 www.gggi.org

AUTHORS Lourdes Tibig, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Dr. Sharon Taylor, Coastal and Marine Specialist Dr. Glenn Paraso, Health Specialist Dr. Jake Tio, Hazard and Risk Assessment Specialist EDITORIAL AND DESIGN Marifel T. Moyano Source and Copyrights © 2013 Climate Change Commission and Global Green Growth Institute Place and date of publication Manila, Philippines November 2013 Disclaimer The views expressed herein should not be taken, in any way, to reflect the official opinion of the publishers.


Foreword The Climate Change Commission and the Global Green Growth Institute signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in 2011 to pursue a cooperation to promote programs and joint activities that foster collaboration in the promotion of green growth in the Philippines. Through the MOU, programs will be supported to develop and promote green growth roadmap at the local level in selected areas that is aligned with the country’s national development plan, through the integration of strategies on poverty reduction, opportunity creation and social development with economic aims with due regard for environmental goals. The Commission leads the demonstration of the Ecotown Framework in selected pilot municipalities in the country. The demonstration of the Ecotown Framework aims to build the adaptive capacities of the communities and increase the resilience of vulnerable sectors and natural ecosystems to climate change. The demonstration of the Ecotown Framework serves as the partnerships main goal in order to showcase a green growth development at the local/ community level. Local communities, both rural and urban, in the Philippines have and always will be impacted by climate, whether it is an extreme rainfall event, drought, intense heat wave, or some other type of event. Scientists often debate on many things, but with certainty, the warming of the climate system is now unequivocal. We are now committed to a warming of 0.2°C every decade chiefly due to the concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions already in the atmosphere. Climate-related disaster losses are increasing and inhibit the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and likewise, the development goals of a local municipality or city and overall that of a country. The Philippines is very vulnerable to climate change and disaster risks posed by the changing climate that manifest not only as more intensive catastrophes but also as losses, if we are not wise enough to prepare to its impacts. What do these changes mean for our quality of life when for decades we have been planning, making decisions, and building our lives based on a stable climate? This question led to the creation of the Climate-Smart Planning and Management Training Program Modules. These modules aim to provide local government units, planners, and/or natural resource managers with a resource and training material to assist their community’s potential vulnerabilities to climate trends and to complement other existing local development planning guidelines on how and when to incorporate the changing climate trends and its effects into their planning and projects. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments are key for resilience strategies and climate change adaptation, as well as for building resilience to natural hazards and extreme events. Identification and understanding of the complex yet overlapping benefits of integrating both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are necessary in developing a sustainable development pathway to put transformation into place. The modules provide tools and methods for the evaluation of sector-specific risk reduction and adaptation measures–social, economic, agricultural, coastal and marine and health- that are crucial for decision-making processes. The goal of vulnerability and adaptation assessments is to identify appropriate adaptation measures that will be implemented on the ground and will be used to guide the Comprehensive Land Use and Development Plan of the locality. Ultimately, these modules aim to find ways to best help communities become more resilient to climate change through education and planning, by reducing impacts and costs through climate change adaptation policies and procedures.


Table of contents

Module

4

Module

5

Summary

9

Introduction

11

Overview of the Climate-Smart Planning and Management Training Program Modules

12

Risk and vulnerability assessment

17

Introduction and module objectives

19

Concepts, theories and practices: Disaster Risk Assessment

20

Using the Disaster Risk Assessment • Risk analysis • Risk evaluation • Risk management

20 22 24 25

Conducting the hazard assessment

26

Exposure and vulnerability assessments to the hazards

30

Consequence analysis, risk estimation and risk evaluation

33

Conclusion

34

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Social-economic sector

37

Introduction and module objectives

39

Overview of the process, methods and tools for assessment

40

Development of socio-economic scenarios

42

Stakeholder consultation • The Guide Questions • Natural Hazards • Historical timeline • Hazard mapping • Future scenarios

42 44 46 46 47 48

Analysis • The Socio-economic Vulnerability Model • Calculation of vulnerability score

49 50 54

Recommendations

56


Volume 2 Modules 4-9 ....practical “how to’s”

Module

6

Module

7

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Agriculture sector

59

Introduction and module objectives

61

Overview of the process, methods and tools for assessment

62

Step 1: Determine purpose and scope

64

Step 2: Determine and gather needed information and information sources, secondary and/or proxy information, if primary data are not available

65

Step 3: Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment roll-out

67

Step 4: Analysis of data and outputs of roll-outs

72

Main types and specific examples of adaptation options in the agriculture sector

73

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Coastal and marine sector

77

Introduction and module objectives

79

Overview of the process, methods and tools for assessment

80

Step 1: Determine baselines

82

Step 2: Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development • Coastal area checklist • Participatory mapping • Coastal transects • Problem and issue ranking • Problem tree • Trend analysis/timeline • Seasonality matrix/calendar • Fishing effort map • Resource use data

83 84 85 86 87 88 88 89 90 92

Step 3: Analysis

96


6

Table of contents Module

8

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Health sector

103

Introduction and module objectives

105

Overview of the health vulnerability and adaptation assessment process

106

Step 1: Identify health vulnerability in an area/community

108

Step 2: Conduct analysis: Quantitative and qualitative • Quantitative assessment

109 109

• Qualitative assessment • Using the Adaptive Capacity Checklist • Components • Guide Questions • Computation of checklist score and interpretation

110 110 110 111 114

Analysis

115

Validation

117


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Volume 2 Modules 4-9 ....practical “how to’s” Module

9

Cross-sectoral Integration

121

Introduction and module objectives

123

The two main types of integration • Cross-sectoral integration

124 124

• Multi-sectoral integration

126

Recommendations • Vulnerability and adaptation cross-sector integration • Prioritization of adaptation options

127 127 127


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Summary In 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted that the climate system is warming and that it is most likely to human activities. The Philippines, a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) made a landmark action to address climate change through the enactment of the Climate Change Act of 2009 (Republic Act No. 9729). The Climate Change Commission (CCC) was created and established, and two of its most recent strategic outputs are the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC). As most parts of the globe, industrialized and developing countries alike, respond to the ever increasing costs of the changing climate in terms of the adverse impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and human systems, it is increasingly becoming imperative to address climate change in all sectors and across all levels from the national to the grassroots levels. There are also opportunities for enhancing livelihood resiliency by including mitigation projects in localities where tremendous benefits could be had by developing and conserving natural resources. The CCC has adopted the Ecotown Framework to model Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and develop Climate Change Mitigation (CCM) projects in the local levels where opportunities exist. In 2012, the CCC partnered with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) to pilot this climate risk management strategy at the level of municipalities through a Project Agreement to foster collaboration in the promotion of green growth through the demonstration of the Ecotown framework in the Municipalities of Del Carmen, Pilar, San Benito and San Isidro all in the province of Surigao del Norte and the Municipality of San Vicente in the province of Palawan. The Training Program Modules for Climate-Smart Planning and Management are designed specifically for local government units. Basic to planning and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation is the integrated assessment of the vulnerabilities of the different sectors in the locality/area to climate change, both current and future. The integrated assessment of identified adaptation strategies includes a careful and rigorous analysis of the gaps, constraints and needs for the identified adaptation strategies/projects. This initiative is the first of its kind at the municipal level that integrates and mainstreams climate change impacts and adaptation, together with disaster risk reduction, and greenhouse gas emission reduction in their development plans, programs and activities which will promote green growth. It highlights how the science-side of climate change (researches, projections, tools and approaches) can be better utilized, and likewise reflect how science can better understand the way societies and sectors make decisions when they are affected by weather events and climatic variability. By providing the methods and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessments, determining different user needs and enhancing how to gather useful and clear climate information, local government units can facilitate timely, actionable and decision relevant outcomes to ensure the continued growth of key sectors in their area.


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Introduction Warming of the climate system is now beyond scientific debate. We are now committed to a warming of 0.2째C every decade chiefly due to the concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions already in the atmosphere. Our activities, as people, in the past and today continue to contribute to climate change and if climate change promises to exacerbate problems we are already facing, it is only wise to prepare for its impacts to our quality of life that is intrinsically connected to our environment and the economy. The Training Program Modules on Climate-Smart Planning and Management intend to facilitate the use of relevant climate information across different sectors, to manage risk and adapt accordingly to future climates.

The Philippines will not be spared from the impacts of climate change and is one of the most vulnerable countries to its impacts. In response to the urgency for action on climate change, the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) outlines seven strategic priorities for adaptation and mitigation till year 2028. These priorities are food security, water sufficiency, ecological and environmental stability, human security, climate-friendly industries and services, sustainable energy and knowledge and capacity development. Adaptation is the anchor strategy of the country, while mitigation actions are pursued as a function of adaptation to pursue green and climatesmart development that ensures improved adaptive capacity of communities, resilient natural ecosystems and environment and healthy economy. The Training Program Modules for ClimateSmart Planning and Management are meant to aid municipalities and cities in the Philippines to understand the basics on the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation and disaster risk reduction activities with tools on how to integrate vulnerability assessments. These assessments help to determine what and who

are likely to be most at risk in their area and start the process of working with communities to determine where a more thorough review of vulnerability may be needed. This guidebook provides the sources of relevant and necessary data from national government agencies as well as selected methods and tools for vulnerability assessments to enable careful and rigorous identification and analysis as well as how to implement and monitor adaptation strategies/projects. This three-volume guidebook, composed of 11 modules can be found at: www.climate.gov.ph


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Volume 2

Modules 4-9

Module 4 Risk and vulnerability assessment

Module 5 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Social-economic

Concepts, theories and practices: Disaster Risk Assessment

Development of socioeconomic scenarios

Using the Disaster Risk Assessment Conducting the hazard assessment Exposure and vulnerability assessments to the hazards

Stakeholder consultation Analysis • Socio-economic Vulnerability Model • Calculation of vulnerability score Recommendations

Consequence analysis, Risk estimation and risk evaluation

Volume 1 Modules 1-3 ....necessary basics Module 1 Climate-smart Planning and Management: An overview Institutional frameworks and policy setting • The Millennium Development Goals connection • The CCA and DRR Agendas About Climate-Smart Planning and Management • Principles • Integral element: Vulnerability and adaptation assessments • Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation into the development planning and management

Module 2 All about climate change Why is climate important The difference between climate change and global warming How are greenhouse gases related to climate change Natural causes alone cannot explain recent changes in climate, human causes can explain these changes The Earth’s climate is changing. It is real. Signals of climate change in the Philippines Negative effects globally and locally The projections

Module 3 Linking climate change adaptation to disaster risk reduction Climate change adaptation and mitigation The basics: Disaster risk reduction The elements of disaster risk reduction The link: Climate change increases disaster risk Understanding risks Overview of hazards in the Philippines CCA & DRR: The benefits, similarities and differences Consequences of lack of convergence


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Module 6 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Agriculture

Module 7 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Coastal and Marine

Module 8 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment: Health

Setting purpose and scope

Determine baselines

Data gathering

Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development

Identifying health vulnerability in an area

Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment roll-out Analysis of data and outputs of roll-outs Examples of adaptation options

Analysis

Conduct analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative • The Adaptive Capacity Checklist

Module 9 Cross-sectoral integration Cross-sector and multi-sector integration Recommendations • Vulnerability and adaptation crosssector integration • Prioritization of adaptation options

Analysis Validation

....Practical “How to’s” Volume 3 Modules 10-11

Module 10 Integration of climate-smart initiatives into the local development planning and budgeting processes Institutional assessment tool • Identification of gaps • Sectoral Impacts of Disaster • Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Challenges (SWOC) • Ready-to-use Guide Questions

....the action

Prioritization of issues and solutions through the Vulnerability Indexes Avenues for integration

Module 11 Monitoring and Evaluation Defining monitoring and evaluation Stages in project cycle Community-based Monitoring and Evaluation / Participatory Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning tool


module 4


Module

4

Part

1

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2 Module 4: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Review of the theoretical concepts of risk assessment (or Disaster Risk Assessment) as applied to natural events

Risk analysis: The process of hazard assessment Part

2

Part

3

What natural hazards can affect your province? How often do these natural events occur? Recommended steps on how to integrate the results of the hazard assessment into the development plan Consequence analysis, risk estimation, risk evaluation What will be affected by these hazards? How bad are the effects? Recommendations on how to further enhance the development plan


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Module

4

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Module objectives Provide an overview of the purpose of assessing risks and vulnerability, together with key elements necessary for the assessments. Provide the steps for the conduct of the assessment and how to integrate the results in a development plan.

Provide tools to enable selection of the most appropriate risk reduction and/ or climate change adaptation measures based on knowledge gained after conducting the hazard assessment or risk assessment Enable planners to focus efforts and measures on hazards that are considered most significant by the stakeholders using a scheme for setting priorities.

An essential element in the conduct of a Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment is to understand the underlying hazards and risks. This can be achieved by undertaking a disaster risk assessment (DRA)1. For sustainable planning, the DRA must incorporate both disaster and climate risks. In other words, both disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) must be mainstreamed into the planning process. Risk assessment, at the conceptual level, answers the fundamental question of “What would happen if a hazard occurred in an area?� It is a process of measuring potential loss of life, injury, property damage and economic costs from hazards. The process also allows for identification of elements (e.g., populations, facilities) that are most vulnerable to hazards. In the spatial context, the process can also identify areas that are susceptible or vulnerable. The process can also be used to estimate the potential impacts on physical and economic assets, and also the damages or costs that can be avoided by implementing risk reduction measures. In addition to providing the conceptual framework, this module provides the step-by-step procedures for the conduct of the assessment and how to integrate the results in a development plan. The process, as well as the way this module is organized, is essentially based on the major steps of the assessment.

1

In this module, the Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) serves as the main platform for risk assessment and the prerequisite for the Vulnerability and Adaptation (VA) Assessment.

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CLIMATE-SMART PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TRAINING PROGRAM MODULES

Part

1

Concepts, theories and practices: Disaster Risk Assessment What is Risk Assessment • The overall process of risk analysis and risk evaluation • A scientific process of evaluating the adverse effects caused by a substance, activity, lifestyle or natural phenomenon • The emergence of risk assessment techniques can be traced as early as the 1950s, when technological advancement continued in great strides – risk assessment was first used to assess industrial or technological safety. • It can either be qualitative or quantitative, or both. Qualitative analysis in the assessment of risks uses descriptive scales or levels to describe the likelihood of an event. Quantitative analysis, on the other hand, uses numerical values for both likelihood and consequences to identify the risks involved. The steps for risk assessment in this module is illustrated in Figure 4.1. It follows the steps and terms used oftentimes in risk assessment and management. (For the basics on risk reduction, refer to Module 3: Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction, Understanding Risks)

Using the Disaster Risk Assessment

In the context of Disaster Risk Reduction/Cllimate Change Adaptation2, Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) is the process of studying risks caused by natural hazards and their effects on elements at risk, namely, the people, buildings and structures, infrastructure, economic activities and public services exposed to hazards in a given area. Quantified risk may be expressed as the number of elements lost (e.g., fatalities) and monetary value of damaged property per unit time. In the Guidelines for Mainstreaming DRR in Subnational Development and Land Use/Physical Planning issued in 2009, NEDA adopted a Four-Step DRA process ( Figure 4.2 ):

Refresher Natural risk is oftentimes presented using the risk triangle3. Using this risk triangle, natural risk can be mathematically expressed as the product of hazard (a single event or series of events which is characterized by a certain magnitude and likelihood of occurrence) exposure (elements that are subject to the impact of a specific hazard and vulnerability (the degree to which the exposed elements will suffer a loss from the impact of a hazard). Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of any system to respond to change and return to a state of balance. The IPCC defines it as the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

2 NEDA-UNDP-EU, Guidelines on Mainstreaming Risk Reduction in Sub-national Development and land use/physical planning in the Philippines 3 Geosciences Australia, Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Hazard characterization

Risk Analysis

Frequency analysis

Consequence analysis

Risk estimation

Determine risk level acceptability/perception

Risk Evaluation

Assess effectiveness of proposed risk measures Integrate vulnerability assessments (physical and social)

Risk Management

Develop DRR and CCA measures in the management plan The DRR aspect of the management plan is intended to address the vulnerability of the population (or any other element) in a specific location (i.e. place) to a hazard. The climate change adaptation aspect is intended to account for sectoral impact from climate change. Implement, Monitor, Review and Evaluate

Figure 4.1. Steps in Risk Assessment and Management. Risk assessment is the use of scientific methods and information to define the probability and magnitude of potentially adverse effects that can result from exposure to hazardous materials or situations.

Figure 4.2. The Disaster Risk Assessment Process in the Guidelines for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Subnational Development and Land Use/Physical Planning, 2009, NEDA

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Part

2

Risk analysis This is the systematic use of available information to identify hazards and to estimate the risk to individuals or populations, property or the environment. As a process, it includes hazard characterization, frequency analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation.

Hazard characterization

Frequency analysis

This is the process that determines the hazard types that will be included in the assessment. The list should be comprehensive and include any hazard type with a reasonable probability of occurring within the study region in a given period. Note, however, that there are practical limits in terms of data availability (especially with respect to frequencies/probabilities) on certain hazard types. Hazard maps typically present the spatial extent of a hazard event corresponding to a specific frequency/probability.

This analysis involves knowing three types of probabilities:

Risk Analysis

(a) Probability of occurrence Probability of occurrence refers to the return period or frequency of the hazard event. Here, the return period is the inverse value of the frequency and is defined as the average period of recurrence that a certain magnitude of a hazard event is equalled or exceeded. For example, a 50-year flood means that

Hazard characterization Risk = Frequency/Probability of occurrence x Consequence

Frequency analysis • Probability of occurrence • Vulnerability probability • Temporal probability

Consequence analysis Elements at risk • Property • Support infrastructures (e.g roads) • Services Spatial Vulnerability • Extent/scope of impact • Impact areas/zones

Risk estimation Risk = Frequency/Probability of occurrence x Consequence


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

the magnitude of the flood is equalled or exceeded on an average of 50 years. Typically, the higher the return period, the greater is the magnitude of the hazard event.4 Likewise, natural phenomena (i.e., hazard) may occur within specific seasons only (e.g., rainy season). This seasonal variability is a significant factor especially in the estimation of agricultural damages. Theoretically, the frequency (or probability of occurrence) of a hazard event is provided in the hazard map. Alternately, the frequency can also derived by studying the trigger and subsequent chain of events that will lead to the occurrence of a hazard. This assessment can be undertaken using event tree analysis (ETA) or fault tree analysis (FTA), among others. (b) Vulnerability probability5 Vulnerability probability refers to the relative damage or the probability of injury/fatality of individuals, society or a group of population, and probability of damage or loss of certain. (c) Temporal probability Temporal probability refers to the likelihood of the event happening at a particular time.

Consequence analysis This analysis requires: (a) Identification of the elements at risk (b) Defining spatial vulnerability of the elements at risks that may include the population and the infrastructure, among others.

Risk estimation Risk estimation involves estimating the risk expressed as the likelihood of fatality, injury or damage on an annual basis. Based on prevailing international practices, risk is generally expressed as a product of the consequence of an event and their likelihood. Consequence describes the effect or impact of a hazard on a community, whereas likelihood describes how often a hazard is likely to occur.6 Mathematically, risk is expressed as:

Frequency Probability of occurrence x Consequence

Comparing this expression to the risk equation based on the risk triangle, note that the two risk expressions are essentially similar, with frequency being equivalent to hazard, and consequence corresponding to exposure and vulnerability. As a systematic process, risk analysis provides the basis for risk evaluation and decisions about risk treatment (i.e., risk management). Note that it may be undertaken to varying degrees of detail depending upon the risk, the purpose of analysis and/or the information, data and resources available. Also, analysis may be qualitative, semi- qualitative or quantitative. Finally, the process may be used proactively to identify and prioritize potential opportunities.7

Spatial vulnerability refers to the extent or scope of an impact. In terms of mapping activities, this requires overlaying the map of elements at risk over the hazard map(s) and identifying the elements affected either in terms of areas common to them (exposure to hazard), nearness of the elements to hazards or functional linkages affected.

4 5 6 7

Ben Gouldby and Paul Samuels, Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies: Language of Risk (FLOODsite Consortium) Vulnerability is defined as the characteristics of a system (or element) that describes its potential to be harmed. As such, vulnerability is conceptually a measure or a function of an element‘s susceptibility or sensitivity as well as coping capacity, adaptability or resilience. Geosciences Australia, Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements Geosciences Australia, Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements

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Risk evaluation This determines the significance of the estimated risk for those affected. It therefore includes the element of risk perception. Risk evaluation also determines how socially and politically acceptable the identified risks are. In addition to determining the risk levels or acceptability, the process can also be used to assess the effectiveness of potential or proposed risk treatment strategies. In addition to evaluation using risk criteria, the assessment process can also be enriched by integrating vulnerability assessment into this step. For the purpose of this module, vulnerability is defined as the characteristics of a system (or element) that describe its potential to be harmed. As such, vulnerability assessment, at the minimum, should assess both physical and social vulnerabilities.

Physical vulnerability

Social vulnerability

The physical vulnerability assessment would cover the bio-geophysical and technological factors relating to:

The assessment of social vulnerability covers vulnerability as the result of interplay among many contextual factors, including social, economic, political, institutional, technological and cultural conditions that generate unequal exposure to risk and create differential capacities to respond to both shocks and long-term changes.8

• Vulnerability (e.g., locations in high-risk areas such as low-lying coastal areas) • High concentrations of population and physical capital in small areas • Dependency on large-scale infrastructure projects • Increased risk of disease transmission due to crowded conditions • Location in fragile or vulnerable environments, such as deforested mountain slopes Consequently, physical vulnerability reduction strategies often seek to control outcomes through monitoring and predicting, as well as through engineering projects and technological interventions that contain or reduce their effects.

8

O‘Brien, K. et al. Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Human Security. Report prepared for the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs by the Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) Project, GECHS Report 2008:3


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Risk management Risk Management is the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of analyzing, evaluating and controlling risk. Having identified and evaluated the risks, decisions have to be made over how acceptable a risk might be and the need for further actions to be undertaken – either to eliminate the risks or reduce these to a tolerable level.

Photo by Desiree Llanos Dee

The management plan can involve both Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures. This integrated approach can be based on either the NEDA risk evaluation step or hazard assessment in the next section. The DRR aspect of the management plan is intended to address the vulnerability of the population (or any other element) in a specific location (i.e. place) to a hazard. This aspect should include both the physical event parameters (and their potential impacts) and the underlying socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population residing within the hazard zone. This approach is quite effective in two areas: risk reduction and vulnerability reduction. In terms of risk reduction, the biophysical aspect can support formulation of risk mitigation measures such as physical system (e.g., flood control), building code formulation and zoning enforcement, and other intervention measures. On the other hand, the social aspect can support non-structural intervention measures in terms of development priorities

9

to benefit the more vulnerable segment of the population.9 The climate change adaptation aspect is intended to account for sectoral impact from climate change. In the formulation of CCA measures, an integrated approach must be used. Sectoral studies may generate important information on the impacts of climate change for a particular sector but may lead to inconsistencies in consideration with other sectors. Consider a study on agriculture alone: analysis of water demand for the agriculture sector can possibly result in either under or over estimation of demands if the requirements of the commercial, industrial, domestic and other sectors are not taken into consideration. An integrated approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of the totality of impacts, which is generally greater than the sum of the separate sectoral impacts.10

Susan L. Cutter et al. Social Vulnerability to Climate Variability Hazards: A Review of the Literature. University of South Carolina – Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute. June 2009 10 Jan F. Feenstra et al. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies.United Nations Environment Programme – Universiteit Amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies. October 1998

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Conducting the hazard assessment Natural hazard assessment, corresponding to the hazard characterization and frequency analysis steps, is the first stage of a Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA). Depending on data availability, hazard assessment can progress into a full and comprehensive DRA. Otherwise, the hazard assessment can serve as the initial iteration of a DRA pending the collection of additional/required data for a full DRA. Note that even as an initial DRA iteration, the hazard assessment can provide sufficient information to allow for the enhancement or enrichment of a development plan.

Conduct Hazard Assessment

Risk Analysis

As a process, the hazard assessment will involve the study of hazards to: • Determine their potential • Determine their origin (i.e., geological or hydrometeorological) • Determine their extent • Impact characteristics including their magnitudefrequency behavior, historical behavior and potential initiating (or triggering) factors As stated in the earlier section, the process is intended to answer the key questions: • What natural hazards can affect your province? • How often do these natural events occur? Note that each hazard type has unique characteristics that can impact each area differently. For example, an earthquake causes ground shaking that will affect an area much differently than flooding. Also, a specific hazard type (e.g., flood) can produce different effects depending on its magnitude, duration or intensity. Finally, even the same hazard will affect different communities in different ways, based on variations in geography, development, population distribution, age of buildings, etc., of an area. 11

Identify hazards Characterize hazards Analyze frequency Prepare hazard profile

exposure and impact assessments

The hazard assessment process will involve several steps: Hazard identification The task involves the identification as well as inventory of hazards that may affect the area. Hazard characterization The step involves the collection of data and information needed to describe (or characterize) the hazards affecting the area. Frequency analysis The step involves the determination of the frequency (or return period) of the various hazards affecting the area. Note that the process should consider the climate change projections prepared by DOSTPAGASA – inasmuch as the frequency for hydrometeorological hazards should reflect the effects of climate change. Hazard profile Based on information gathered in the previous steps, a hazard profile is prepared.

Hazard map is defined as the map with predicted or documented extent of a hazard, with an indication of probability of occurrence, adapted from Ben Gouldby and Paul Samuels, Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies: Language of Risk (FLOODsite Consortium)


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Hazard identification

Sourcing Information

Subject to information and data availability, all possible categories of natural hazards should be covered in the assessment. Hazards can be categorized in several ways:

Maps sourced from mandated government agencies To ensure long-term sustainability and respect institutional mandates, currently available maps sourced from mandated government agencies shall be the primary basis of the assessment. Nonetheless, there are other sources of information that can be used to supplement data provided by mandated agencies. These data sources include weather officials, seismologists, engineers, science professionals, emergency management personnel, building officials and other experts.

Natural Hazards Natural hazards are geological or hydrometeorological. For most of these hazards, the mandated agencies have prepared hazard/ susceptibility maps. Hydro-meteorological hazard Hydro-meteorological hazard events cover those that are related to water and the atmosphere. Types: • Tropical cyclone (including tropical depressions, tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons) and related hazards (e.g. storm surge) • Mass movement that may be affected by rain (e.g. rainfall-induced landslide, debris flows) • Fluvial hazards (e.g. flooding such as riverine, coastal and flash floods, bank erosion and channel migration, scouring, siltation) Geological hazards Hazards related to natural geologic processes or events especially in the earth‘s crust. Types: • Earthquake and related hazards (i.e., ground rupture, liquefaction and ground shaking, earthquake-induced landslide, tsunami) • Volcanic hazards (i.e., ballistic projectile, pyroclastic flow, lava flow, steam explosion, ashfall, debris avalanche, mudflows, volcanic gas) • Sinkholes • Ground subsidence Climate change-related hazards Hazards that are directly attributable to climate change as well as events that have to be considered due to climate change. • Droughts • Sea-level rise • Coastal erosion and degradation

Mandated agencies generally have information for the following hazards: • Earthquake-induced landslide and other earthquake-related hazards • Flood hazards • Rainfall-induced landslide hazards • Storm surge hazards • Volcanic hazards Historical data Another major source of information is historical data. However, note that even if a hazard has not affected you in the past, it does not mean it will not affect you in the future. The possible sources of historical information for preparing the hazard inventory are: Community consultations to produce a timeline of events to be verified with the following sources: • Newspaper and other historical records In addition to written records, anecdotal accounts can serve to augment information contained in the written records. • Government or official documents Government or official reports contain comprehensive records of past disasters. In particular, the regional or local offices of OCD as well as provincial and municipal disaster coordinators/officers should be consulted. • Institutions Another potential source of information and expertise are academe and professional organizations. At the end of this step, a list of natural hazards that may affect the area shall have been prepared. The list should also indicate availability of information (i.e., what information is available) and the potential sources of information that may be required in the next step – hazard characterization.

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Hazard characterization The most important aspect of the hazard characterization step is the collection of basic information on the hazard – specifically, hazard maps. Theoretically, the hazard map11 should provide the spatial extent or distribution of the hazard event of a specific/certain probability of occurrence. The hazard map is used to determine the specific parts or areas that will be affected by the hazard. Methodology Depending on the capability of the planner and/or the planning team, available hazard maps may be refined and/or validated using the following methodology: • Morphostructural interpretation of available satellite imagery, aerial photographs, 1:50,000 scale NAMRIA topographic maps • Site visit and field validation • Review of historical data

Sourcing Information Maps sourced from mandated government agencies As mentioned earlier, available hazard information from mandated agencies may be limited to certain hazard types only. DOST Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) • Volcanic hazards • Earthquake-induced landslide • Other earthquake-related hazards

Elements of a good base map In addition to the hazard maps, a base map also serves as the foundation to the entire DRA process. A good base map is complete, accurate and current as possible. In addition, it must have sufficient planimetric characteristics to allow measurement of accurate horizontal distances. Finally, the base map must also include the appropriate administrative boundaries that will adequately cover the entire study areas. The topographic map as produced by NAMRIA shall serve as the preferred base map for the entire DRA process. At the end of this step, the list of natural hazards that may affect the area shall have been refined. In addition to obtaining the base map, the list should be refined in terms of the hazards that will be included in the DRA. Such refinement is essentially governed by data limitation – note that DRA may only be undertaken for hazards with the corresponding hazard map/s. In refining the list of hazards, the following should be considered: • Availability of hazard maps – the type of hazard maps available and the scheme of determining susceptibility or spatial extent of the hazard events • In case of non-availability of hazard maps (especially for hazards with potentially significant effects on the area), assistance from the relevant government agencies should be solicited for the preparation of an indicative hazard map/s that will be used for the assessment.

DOST Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) • Storm surge (or hydro-meteorological hazards) • Flood maps, Scale 1:10,000 DENR-Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) • Flood maps, Scale 1:50,000 • Rainfall-induced landslide For technical guidance and assistance, consult the nearest offices of these agencies in your area, or visit the following websites: www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph www.mgb.gov.ph www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

11 Hazard map is defined as the map with predicted or documented extent of a hazard, with an indication of probability of occurrence, adapted from Ben Gouldby and Paul Samuels, Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies: Language of Risk (FLOODsite Consortium)


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Frequency analysis

Hazard profile

The determination of the return period of a hazard event is essentially based on the:

At this stage, the hazard assessment comprising the hazard characterization and frequency analysis steps may be considered as completed with the preparation of the hazard profiles.

1. Identification of the most probable triggering or initiating event (e.g., rainfall for rainfall- induced landslide) 2. The specification of a typical threshold level (e.g., intensity or amount of rainfall). Then, the return period is estimated for this threshold level.

Note

The determination of the return period for hydrometeorological hazards should consider the results of the climate projections undertaken by DOST-PAGASA as may be applicable.

Sourcing Information

Additional information, especially on the process for determining the return period, can be found in NEDA‘s Guidelines on Mainstreaming Risk Reduction in Sub-national Development and Land use/physical Planning in the Philippines. This document can be downloaded from www.neda.gov.ph.

The hazard profiles will eventually constitute the first part of the comprehensive DRA report if the entire process is undertaken. The profile will combine both historical data as well as the results of hazard characterization and frequency analysis. To enrich the hazard assessment, the succeeding step will essentially involve assessment of both exposure and vulnerability to the hazard. Incorporating these information will help to describe who and what is exposed to the threat.

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Exposure and vulnerability assessments to the hazards Steps

Tools Template-Table: Spatial Exposure Template-Table: Population Exposure Template-Table: Analysis of exposure and vulnerability

Determine the area exposed to the hazard Determine the population exposed to the hazard Analysis of exposure and vulnerability

This step will essentially involve assessment of both exposure and vulnerability to the hazard, which is a process of describing who and what is exposed to the threat. The assessment, in general, should also determine the differential susceptibility (e.g. the potential for loss, injury, harm, adverse impacts on livelihoods) and impacts of that exposure. As such, in addition to identifying the risk factor, the process also delves into the driving forces that influence vulnerability of an element in a particular location.12 A comprehensive assessment should cover several aspects12 or three distinct elements that should be included: Exposure assessment Identifies the source of risk (i.e. hazard) including magnitude, frequency of occurrence and spatial impact Impact assessments Determines the consequences of a particular hazard on the element (e.g. population) Damage assessment Estimates direct and indirect losses (e.g. fatalities, infrastructure, economic) associated with a particular hazard event In this module, the assessment is essentially limited to exposure and impact assessment due to potential data and resource limitations. In addition, it will contain initial analysis on how the various hazards may be integrated into the development plan.

12

STEP

a

Determine the area and population exposed to the hazard (spatial vulnerability)

Determine the area exposed to the hazard The determination of spatial vulnerability is based on the intersection of the hazard maps with the base and other maps. The assessment will involve the determination of the area vulnerable to a specific hazard and the administrative units that may be affected. Note that this process is iterative – to be undertaken for each hazard type. The results of the overlaying step may be presented as using the template shown in Table 4.1. Determine the population exposed to the hazard The next operation population exposed undertaken either population with the the spatial exposure population from the household plot map.

would be to determine the to the hazard. This can be by (a) estimating exposed use of population density and map; or (b) counting exposed overlay of hazard map with a

The results may be presented using the template shown in Table 4.2. In addition, a different set of working tables can be generated using percentage (%) instead of absolute numbers or units.

Susan L. Cutter et al. Social Vulnerability to Climate Variability Hazards: A Review of the Literature. University of South Carolina – Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute. June 2009


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Table 4.1. Template-Table: Spatial Exposure

Table 4.2. Population Exposure

STEP

b

Analysis of exposure and vulnerability

Based on the tables obtained in Step A, a macroanalysis of the vulnerability can be undertaken. Specifically, an analysis of the hazard exposure and vulnerability in the context of its impact on the land use and physical framework can be initiated. The first iteration of the analysis shall focus on exposure in terms of spatial extent and affected population. Discussions in terms of spatial extent may be based on the following: • Proportion (%) of barangays that may be affected • Proportion (%) of barangays that may be significantly affected (e.g., barangays with more that 50% of its area affected) • Proportion (%) of urbanized or highly populated/ developed areas that may be affected On the other hand, discussions in terms of exposed population may be based on the following: • Proportion (%) of barangays that may be affected • Proportion (%) of barangays that may be significantly affected (e.g., barangays with more that 50% of its area affected)

• Proportion (%) of urbanized or highly populated/ developed areas that may be affected The second iteration of the analysis shall focus on the implications of the exposure analysis on the development strategies or the development plan itself especially the land use and physical framework. Discussions may cover the following aspects: • Exposure of the population centers to a specific or combination of hazards • The exposure of the high population growth or urbanizing barangays to a specific or combination of hazards • The identification of less exposed area/s for future development and/or expansion (or growth spatial directions) This analysis may be guided by using the template shown in Table 4.3. The entire process (Steps A and B) shall be repeated for the other hazards.

Table 4.3. Template-Table: Analysis of exposure and vulnerability

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After the assessment for all the hazards have been completed, the results of the entire process should be integrated. Specifically, the analysis of vulnerabilities using a matrix may be integrated. Similar or common entries can be combined. Example guide questions that may be used for the integration include the following: • Are the impacts identified in the development plan or the land use and physical framework still appropriate or relevant considering the results of the entire assessment? • Is there a need for a refinement or revisions of the list of development issues listed in terms of consistency? • Are all the vulnerabilities integrated into the list of development goals, objectives and targets? • Are all the vulnerabilities addressed by the intervention measures identified? Note that the results of the entire analysis may be integrated into and enrich the process of identifying intervention measures.

Development and intervention measures should consider the following aspects: • Targeted development goals, objectives and/or intervention measures for specific sectors identified programs (e.g., poverty alleviation programs, livelihood projects) are targeted for the most population sectors without aggravating the vulnerabilities of other aspects or elements (e.g, land uses, lifelines). • Non-structural measures to reduce overall vulnerability – policies and programs should be crafted to address vulnerabilities especially in the context of vulnerabilities to multiple hazards rather than just a single hazard. • Structural measures to reduce overall vulnerability – projects and activities should be identified especially for cluster/s of barangays that share common vulnerabilities to multiple hazards. In addition, safeguards must be in place to ensure that risk reduction or climate change adaptation measures in an area will not increase or aggravate the impacts in another area (e.g. flood control project in an area will not aggravate flooding in neighboring or adjacent areas).


VOLUME 2 MODULE 4 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Part

3

Consequence analysis, risk estimation and risk evaluation The key questions for these steps are: What will be affected by these hazards? How bad are the effects?

As discussed previously, consequence analysis requires the identification of the elements at risk and defining spatial vulnerability of these same elements. The elements at risks may include the population and the infrastructure, among others. Risk estimation, on the other hand, involves estimating the risk expressed as the likelihood of fatality, injury or damage per unit time. And finally, risk evaluation is the determination of the significance of the estimated risk for those affected. The consequence analysis requires the conduct of an inventory of population and/or assets that may be affected and estimating potential losses (or damage) from hazards. Note that each hazard type has unique characteristics that influence loss (or damage) estimation in an area depending on magnitude, duration or intensity. For example, the effects of floods are dependent on flood depth and duration; while fatality is significantly linked to the speed of onset. Likewise, various hazards will impact elements differently. For example, buildings are damaged variably by an earthquake based on materials of construction and design of the building itself.

Risk estimation follows after the potential fatality and property damages had been estimated in the consequence analysis step. Risk estimation involves estimating the risk (annual basis) expressed as the expected annual number of lives lost, and annual damage to property (in monetary value). Finally, the risk evaluation can be undertaken using the same approaches contained in the analysis of exposure and vulnerability. Note that risk evaluation essentially focuses on prioritization of control measures (e.g. DRR, CCA) in the absence of a risk acceptability criteria in the country. As with hazard assessment, the entire process (from consequence analysis to risk evaluation) is iterative – the steps are repeated for each hazard. Additional information can be found in NEDA‘s Guidelines on Mainstreaming Risk Reduction in Sub-national Development and Land Use/Physical Planning in the Philippines.

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Conclusion Disaster risk assessment (DRA), or hazard assessment, is iterative by nature. The assessment and analysis need to be updated regularly as additional data and information are either generated or collected (Module 5 contains some community -based methods of gathering such data). DRA and similar assessments are likewise affected by development activities. The inventory of exposed elements (e.g., people, buildings) changes over time. As such, the risk or hazard profiles changes correspondingly. In addition, the implementation of disaster risk reduction (especially physical infrastructures, e.g., flood control) can significantly alter the profile of the hazard by either reducing the spatial extent or by reducing the number of elements that will be exposed. As such, DRA and similar assessments should be viewed as a learning process – capabilities are enhanced and improved as more iterations of the assessment are undertaken. Accuracy is also improved as additional data and information are collected or generated. Note that natural hazards and climate change are beyond human capability to control, but humans are fully capable to manage, reduce and adapt to their effects.


module 5


Module

5

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2 Module 5: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Social-economic sector

Part

Data requirement needs to formulate relevant indicators for the socio-economic scenarios

Part

The process of the Stakeholder Consultation

1 2

Part

3

The analysis of the Socio-economic Assessment Recommendations on how to further enhance the development plan


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Module

5

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Social-economic sector Module objectives Give a practical guide on how to undertake a Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (V&A) assessment for the socio-economic sector

Provide tools and methods to conduct the assessment such as data gathering, analysis, validation and prioritization Provide recommendations how to integrate the results in a development plan

Vulnerabilities to climate change can be enhanced by non-climate related stresses such as poverty, unequal access to resources, food insecurity trends in economic globalization, conflict, and incidence of diseases. By using socio-economic scenarios, we construct plausible reference points to understand how vulnerability may change. Socioeconomic conditions determine key aspects of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change. This module provides the step-by-step procedures for the conduct of the assessment and how to integrate the results in a development plan. The process, as well as the way this module is organized, is essentially based on the major steps of the assessment.

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Prioritize relevant indicators for the socio-economic scenarios

Review of literature

Sources: • Local and Provincial Governments

Stakeholder consultations

• Socio-economic Profiles • Comprehensive Development Plans • Land Use Plans • Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plans Annual Investment Plans • Executive Legislative Agenda • CBMS data • Regional sectoral plans

Method • Focus group discussion

Tools • Guide questions • Historical timeline for cost of climate change related disasters • Hazard mapping • Policy, issues, needs/gaps scoping

Categorize information

Human resources • Population • Population growth rate • Population migration rates • Age structure • Dependency and support ratios • Basic social services including: • Housing/shelter • Water supply • Waste management • Nutrition and sanitation (health issues are covered in Module 8) • Education • Power supply • Communications

Environmental capacity • Population density • Land use and land use changes

Sources: • Stakeholder consultations and validation • Historical profile on demographic, economic, natural resource and land use • Hazard maps • Climate change scenarios produced by PAGASA

13 The latter could also be included in human resources, under communications, depending on the source of information

Economic capacity • Employment opportunities • Unemployment and poverty incidence • Household income level and expenditure, consumption and exports • Cost of climate related disasters • Community-based early warning systems13


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Assess and prioritize indicators on the total vulnerability level

Prioritize recommendations Combine results from the issues, gaps/needs and recommendations with the vulnerability analysis

Tools • Socio-economic Vulnerability Model

Stakeholder validation

Figure 5.1

Overview of the process, methods and tools used in this module The vulnerability and adaptation assessments based on socio-economic information can be used to answer questions regarding the vulnerability of the community. It answers the questions: How sensitive is the community to climate change and disasters? What is the adaptive capacity of the community?

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Development of socio-economic scenarios

Stakeholder consultation

To create the socio-economic scenarios relevant indicators will be prioritized based on a review of available literature. The documents recommended for review and where these can be sourced are indicated in Figure 5.1. These will assist in characterizing the socio-economic conditions and drivers and set the boundary of the study.

Participants to the stakeholder consultation should include (but not limited to) the following sectors:

The data to be reviewed can be divided into three categories: human resources; environmental capacity and economic capacity. Table 5.1 outlines the relationships between the indicators, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The indicators will be tested and used by stakeholder consultation/ Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and the historical profile can be generated for demographic, economic, natural resource and land use, governance/policy-based and cultural analysis of present vulnerabilities. By utilizing the climate change scenarios, the additional pressures on existing vulnerabilities can be determined and potential adaptation strategies can be determined. These will be subjected to a validation workshop with the concerned stakeholders. Socio-economic data can then be overlaid onto the hazard maps to assess the extent of the exposed population.

• Local government officials: Planning and Development Officer, Engineer, Assessor, DRRM Officer, Agricultural Officer, Environment and Natural Resource Officers, etc. • Health workers • Day care workers • Teachers • Farmers • Fishers • Women • Youth • Private sector • Academe

The Guide Questions The Guide Questions to stimulate discussions are designed to expand on the information gathered from the official documents are shown in Figure 5.2.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Table 5.1. Baseline socio-economic data, indicators and functional relationships

Category Human Resources

Indicators

Indicator for

Functional Relationship

Population change (including migration rates)

Social and economic resources available for adaptation after meeting present needs.

Adaptive capacity decreases as status level (ranking/ attainment) decreases

Age structure, dependency and support ratios

Human capital and adaptability of the labor force

Sensitivity increases with increasing dependencies

Basic social services

Social welfare

Sensitivity increases as basic social services access decreases Adaptive capacity decreases as dependency increases Sensitivity increases as the status of living conditions (public infrastructure and housing) decreases

Environmental Capacity

Economic Capacity

Population density

Population pressure and stresses on ecosystems

Adaptive capacity decreases as density increases

Land use

Adaptive capacity (of the environment) decreases as land use changes to residential / industrial increases

Employment opportunities

Sensitivity decreases with increasing economic capacities and income distribution

Unemployment and poverty incidence

Adaptive capacity decreases as unemployment and poverty incidence increases

Household level income and expenditure, consumption and exports

Distribution of access to markets, technology and other resources useful for adaptation

Cost of climate-related disasters Community-based Early Warning Systems

Adaptive capacity increases as household level income increases

Adaptive capacity decreases as damages increases Availability of early warnings

Sensitivity increases as availability of early warning decreases

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Figure 5.2. A sample Stakeholder consultation Guide Questions

Stakeholder consultation: Guide Questions Human Resources • What is the total population of the municipality? • Which barangay has the largest population? Why? • Which barangay has the smallest population? Why? • Has population increased or decreased over the years? • What is the reason for the change? • Is there a high number of younger/older persons than working age population? Note: At this point the discussion may flow into the economic capacity. If it does, follow the flow, but remember to bring the discussion back for the next set of guide questions for human resources

• Are there elementary, secondary and tertiary education facilities in the area? • What is the location of the schools? • Are there a large number of out-of-school youth? • Do youth migrate out of the area for higher education? Where to? • What courses do students avail of for higher education? • Is the choice based on cost or prevalence for the course? Note: At this point, this may take the discussion into employment and livelihood opportunities (economic capacity)

Economic capacity • How many households are there? • What materials are used in the construction of the houses? • What percentage of houses are made of each of the materials listed above? • Where are the materials sourced from? • What percentage of households have access to water? • What are the water systems available? • Where is the water sourced from? • What are the problems with the access to water: in the dry season; in the rainy season? • Does this lead to health and sanitation problems? – which are? • How is waste managed in the area? • Is there a waste management plan? • Are there regular cleanup drives? • How many households have access to electricity? • For households with no access to electricity, what do they use for fuel: for lighting, cooking, appliances, etc.? • Where is the fuel sourced from? • What is the cost of electricity/other fuels utilized? • What is the main source of communication? • How many communication facilities are there? • How efficient are the services? • What factors affect efficiency? • If the youth migrate out of the area for college, do they come back to work in the area?


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Environmental capacity • Which barangays have the highest/lowest number of households? • What is the land area of these barangays? • What is the total land area? • What is the average number of persons per household? • How is the land area utilized: built-up areas, agricultural lands, forest areas, designated zones for tourism, industry, etc.? • Are any major changes in land use proposed? Note: Link discussion back to population growth

Economic capacity • What percentage of the population are employed? • What are the major sources of livelihood? • Are there sufficient opportunities for livelihood? • Do people migrate for job opportunities? Where to? • Is the area self-sufficient in basic supplies i.e. food, water, electricity, etc.? • If not, where are they sourced from? At what cost? • Where are the markets? Are the accessible to the majority of the population? • If not, how are supplies transported? • What is the average household income/expenditure?

Note that the participants may not want to answer this, but if they do, ask them to list down a typical household budget.

• What financial institutions are available in the area? • Is there a high dependency on borrowing? • What are the financing terms? • Are there micro-finance options in the area? • Are these preferred? Why? • Is insurance availed of in the area? What types and coverage terms? • Is poverty prevalent in the area? • What programs are there to address poverty? • Are they effective? Why?

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Natural hazards

For the cost of climate related disasters the following tools are used,

The results are compared. This can be utilized for cross-validation of events.

Natural hazards14 Exacerbating poverty and the productivity of the ecosystems are the prevalence of natural hazards.

The events are then categorized as to whether they are natural: geological, hydro-meteorological; or human-induced.

The participants are asked to recall the event and when it occurred by illustrating a historical timeline.

To assess the communities‘ perception they are asked for their categorization and reasoning. The responses are then discussed to deepen understanding of climate change and climate related disasters.

Historical timeline Methodology • The facilitator notes down the responses on manila paper posted on the wall. • As an alternative if the group is large: divide into groups. Place one piece of manila paper on one side of a board and another on the other side (if there are two groups). For more than two groups place manila paper around the room. • Ask the participants within their groups to form a line • The first person in the line is to write down one event with the time of occurrence • Once finished, they give the pen to the next person, and so on • Events listed can not be duplicated • Each person is to write down an event

The categories are then tallied per decade and a graph is drawn to assess whether climate related events have been increasing in recent decades. This can lead into a discussion on community perceptions of climate change impact and its affect on the socioeconomic conditions. The participants are then asked which hazard occurs the most frequent, the second most frequent, the third and so on. The top four or five hazards (depending on how many small groups are to be formed) are chosen to undergo a hazard mapping exercise.

This can be set up as a competition to see which group can finish first.

14 Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM). 2010. Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Foundation Course. PRRM-Conrado Benitez Institute for Sustainability (CBIS)


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Hazard mapping

The participants are asked to complete the following matrix: The participants are asked to complete the following matrix as shown in Figure 5.3. The figure shows a sample of a hazard map produced from the focus group discussion with the communities. By utilizing these hazard maps, areas/sectors prone already to the impacts can be prioritized for disaster prevention and mitigation measures. These, when combined with the climate change scenarios, can be utilized not only for disasters based on historical

Figure 5.3. A sample of a hazard map matrix template

data, but also to lessen potential future impacts (climate change adaptation) that ultimately take resources away from local development into relief and rehabilitation. The last column on availability of warnings can be utilized to deepen the discussion on availability of communication systems and the system for dissemination of information to the households within the area.

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Future scenarios

By utilizing the climate change scenarios produced by PAGASA, a discussion can be started looking at future scenarios, for example:

Building on this discussion, the participants are again divided for small group workshops on the issues that have surfaced throughout the FGD.

“As seen above with an increasing population, land will be converted primarily from agriculture to residential and service provision. Remaining agricultural land would need to be supported to improve production especially if the wet seasons are going to get wetter and dry seasons drier. Fishery resources need to be protected to enhance local fish stocks. Employment opportunities, and basic social services also remain to be addressed.�

They are asked to complete a scoping matrix as shown in Table 5.2.

Table 5.2. An issue, policy scoping matrix template Issue

Existing Resources: Plans/ Projects/ Activities

Local Policy No. and Title

Gaps/ Needs

Recommendations


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Analysis

The Socio-economic Vulnerability Model A weighting system is used to assess and prioritize the indicators on the total vulnerability level. The model describes the vulnerability semi-quantitatively, with additive aggregation of the indicators.

Table 5.3 below and unto the succeeding pages gives an example of the socio-economic vulnerability model with suggested indicators, their corresponding weights and criteria for ranking of the indicators.

Each indicator is individually ranked from 1 (lowest vulnerability) to 5 (highest vulnerability) and weighted, based on its overall degree of influence. The weights are chosen among the values 1, 2 and 3, where weight 1 is assigned to the least influential indicators, 2 to the intermediate influential indicators and 3 to the most influential indicators. The assignment of weights to the indicators is based on literature review and expert judgment, and is validated with key stakeholders from the FGD‘s.

When all the indicators are assigned a vulnerability score, the score for each indicator is multiplied with its corresponding weight to give a weighted vulnerability score. The final vulnerability estimate is formulated as a weighted average of the individual indicator scores: Total vulnerability = Sum of weighted vulnerability score Sum of weights score value

Table 5.3. Socio-economic Vulnerability Model Category: Human Resources Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking

Functional relationship

(1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability) <1% natural population growth rate Population change (including migration rates)

2

2% population growth rate

1 Adaptive capacity 2 decreases as status level (ranking/ attainment) 3 decreases 4

3% - 4% population growth rate

5

<1% population growth rate due to outmigration 1% - 2% population growth rate

Uniform age distribution - less than 20% of 1 Susceptibility increases the population is either between 0-5 years with increasing dependencies 20-30% of the population is either between 2 0-5 years of age or over 65 Adaptive capacity Age structure, dependency and support ratios

2

30-40% of the population is either between 0-5 years of age or over 65

3 decreases as dependency increases

40-50% of the population is either between 0-5 years of age or over 65

4

Over 50% of the population is either between 0-5 years of age or over 65

5

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Socio-economic Vulnerability Model Category: Human Resources Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking

Functional relationship

(1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Basic social services: Housing/ Shelter

Basic social services: Water Supply

Basic social services: Waste Management

3

3

3

The majority of constructions are of strong resistance, there are some or none of medium resistance and none of weak resistance.

1 Susceptibility increases as basic social services access decreases

The majority of constructions are of strong resistance, there are some or none of medium resistance and some of weak resistance.

2 Susceptibility increases as the status of living conditions (public infrastructure and housing) decreases 3

The majority of constructions are of medium resistance, there are some or none The majority of constructions are of weak resistance, there are some of medium resistance and some of strong resistance. The majority of constructions are of weak resistance, there are some of medium resistance and some of strong resistance.

4

The majority of constructions are of weak resistance, there are some or none of medium resistance and none of strong resistance.

5

Water supply sufficient and all households have access

1

51% - 75% of the total households have access to safe water

2

26% - 50% of the total households have access to safe water

3

5% - 25% of the total households have access to safe water

4

<5% of the total households have access to safe water

5

All households practice proper waste management

1

51% - 75% of the total households practice proper waste management

2

26% - 50% of the total households practice proper waste management

3

5% - 25% of the total households practice proper waste management

4

<5% of the total households practice proper 5 waste management


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Socio-economic Vulnerability Model Category: Human Resources Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking

Functional relationship

(1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Basic social services: Nutrition and Sanitation

Basic social services: Education

Basic social services: Power Supply

3

3

2

All households have sanitary toilets and there are no incidences of malnutrition in 0-5 year olds

1

51%- 90% of households have sanitary toilets and 5% - 10% incidences of malnutrition in 0-5 year olds

2

10% - 50% of households have sanitary toilets and 10-30% incidences of malnutrition in 0-5 year olds

3

5% - 10% of households have sanitary toilets and 31% - 50% incidences of malnutrition in 0-5 year olds

4

<5% of households have sanitary toilets > 50% incidences of malnutrition in 0-5 year olds

5

All of the eligible population have completed high school education

1

40% - 80% of the eligible population have completed high school education

2

10% - 39% of the eligible population have completed high school education

3

5% - 10% of the eligible population have completed high school education

4

<5% of the eligible population have completed high school education

5

All households have access to power

1

40% - 80% of households have access to power

2

10% - 39% of households have access to power

3

5% - 10% of households have access to power

4

<5% of the households have access to power

5

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Socio-economic Vulnerability Model Category: Environmental capacity Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking

Functional relationship

(1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Population density

Land Use

2

3

Population density is <50 people/km2

1

Population density is 50-100 people/km2

2

Population density is 100-250 people/km2

3

Population density is 250-500 people/km2

4

Population density is >500 people/km2

5

Less than 10% of the population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

1

10% - 25% of the population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

2

26 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 50% of the population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

3

51% - 75% of the population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

4

Greater than 75% of the population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

5


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Socio-economic Vulnerability Model Category: Economic capacity Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking

Functional relationship

(1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability) Plentiful and varied employment opportunities

Employment opportunities

3

Sufficient employment opportunities

1 Susceptibility decreases with increasing economic capacities and 2 income distribution

Limited employment opportunities

3

Lack of employment opportunities within the municipality for new graduates

4

Lack of employment opportunities within the municipality for the economically productive population and new graduates

5

Majority of the economically productive population are employed and there is no poverty

1 Adaptive capacity decreases as unemployment and 2 poverty incidence increases

>75% of the economically productive population are employed and there is <10% poverty Unemployment and poverty incidence

Household (HH) income level and expenditure, consumption and exports

3

3

50% - 74% of the economically productive population are employed and there is 11% - 45% poverty

3

15% - 49% of the economically productive population are employed and there is 46% -75% poverty

4

<15% of the economically productive population are employed and there is >75% poverty

5

Household income surpasses expenditure and all goods available from local sources

1

Household income matches expenditure; basic essentials available from local sources

2

Household income 75% of expenditure; majority of basic essentials imported

3

Household income half of expenditures; all basic essentials imported

4

Household income <half of expenditure; majority of goods imported

5

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Socio-economic Vulnerability Model Category: Economic capacity Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking

Functional relationship

(1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability) Extensive coverage for private and public 1 Adaptive capacity buildings, existence of government disaster decreases as damages funds that do not detract from development increases funds

Cost of climate-related disasters

3

Insurance coverage for the majority of private and public buildings, limited government funding

2

Widespread insurance in development phase, but not yet accessible to everyone

3

Incomplete support for victims of climate related disasters

4

Little or no insurance provided; rehabilitation support comes from development funds

5

Advanced early warning systems

1 Susceptibility increases as 2 availability of early warning decreases 3

Adequate early warning systems capable of reaching the majority of the population Community-based Early Warning Systems

3

Basic early warning systems available to the public Basic early warning systems available to risk managers

4

No early warning systems

5

Calculation of vulnerability score

The vulnerability score for the socio-economic analysis in the example Table 5.4, using the formula for analysis, is 3.52, where 1 is the lowest possible vulnerability score and 5 is the highest possible vulnerability score. (Please note that this is for the socio-economic sector only. To get a complete vulnerability rating there has to be a cross-sectoral integration of indicators and ratings. ( Refer to Module 9). The results need to be assessed per category and indicator (prioritization for areas of intervention), e.g., from the example above: For the human resources category, education from the basic social services category scores the highest weighted average vulnerability. This is followed closely by water supply, waste management, age structure, dependency and support ratios, and communication.

The lowest weighted average vulnerability score belongs to the power supply indicator of basic social services. For the environmental capacity category land use scores the highest weighted average vulnerability. The lowest weighted average vulnerability score belongs to the population density indicator. For the economic capacity employment opportunities, unemployment and poverty incidence, household income level and expenditure, consumption and exports, and the cost of climate related disasters indicators score the highest weighted average vulnerability, followed closely by and communitybased early warning systems.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 5 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTOR

Table 5.4. A sample computation of total vulnerability score

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Recommendations To prioritize recommendations, the results from the issues, gaps/needs and recommendations exercises are combined which the above analysis on the weighted average vulnerability score i.e. which issues raised correspond to the lowest rated indicators above, then second lowest rating and so on, until the list is complete. A discussion is started to elicit further recommendations and the link to the issues and the rated indicators. This is then enhanced by the climate change scenarios to deepen justifications. An example of the discussion output and recommendations for the socio- economic sector follows: The recommendation for improving solid waste management and provision of potable water would address health and sanitation issues. Improving food production would address malnutrition of under five-year olds if fresh food is available locally and at lower cost than imported food. It would also address the factor that the majority of the population are dependent on natural resources if climate-resilient technology is utilized for the improvement (refer to the agricultural sector and coastal and marine sector analyses). For housing and shelter, the proposed increase in residential land area, together with mangrove rehabilitation should address the backlog in housing needs, but still high construction costs would prevent the building of houses with strong materials. However, if low-cost housing technology was utilized to incorporate risk reduction strategies, especially due to flooding, this could address the situation of high cost of damages to housing during climate related events, combined with community-based early warning systems, especially for climate related disasters, the most prevalent of which is flooding, e.g. rain gauges. Defraying the costs of damages could be explored through microfinance and micro-insurance options. Improving educational facilities and access could address the low completion rates together with improving economic opportunities so the youth do not feel they have to enter the labor force to assist in the support of their family households income, sacrificing their education. Assessment of natural resources could provide a menu of options of resources that could be further maximized for post-harvest production or handicrafts for the developing tourism trade/market. The latter could also be a source of employment through homestay programs, tour guides for historical tours, mangrove tours and other coastal activitiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. All of the above is then presented for validation to the key stakeholders from the FGD during a separate validation workshop. This would also be the venue for further prioritization of climate change initiatives on the basis of cross-sectoral integration (refer to Module 10).


module 6


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Module

6

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2 Module 6: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Agriculture sector

This module will give a practical guide on how to undertake a V&A assessment for the agriculture sector. It will provide the background together with the tools and methods used from data gathering, analysis, validation and prioritization.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Module

6

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Agriculture sector Module objectives Give a practical guide on how to undertake a Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (V&A) assessment for the agrictulure sector

Provide tools and methods to conduct the assessment such as data gathering, analysis, validation and prioritization

Current impacts of observed climate variability, extreme weather/climate events (e.g., tropical cyclones, floods, drought, etc.), and trends such as increasing temperatures and changing rainfall characteristics affirm findings of previous studies that there are increasingly high sensitivities of sectors and communities to changing climate. Global and regional scientific assessments point to our commitment to a changing climate. In a warming world, temperature increases will cause attendant changes in rainfall and will lead to cascading impacts, making proactive adaptation planning an imperative. Negative impacts of a highly variable climate coupled with some climatic trends in the agriculture sector are increasingly being observed. These adverse impacts have been happening, such as when rainfall deficiencies result to dry spells and insufficient water availability for crop requirements, as in the case during years of El Ni単o-associated droughts. On the other hand, positive impacts are seen when and where weather conditions are favorable to agricultural production, as shown in areas of good harvest when rains have been sufficient. Can we avoid/minimize negative impacts and can we take advantage of opportunities that will happen as temperature increases and climate continues to change? Addressing these challenges will require that we do effective measures directed at enhancing our capacity to adapt and/ or building adaptive capacity and minimizing, adjusting to and taking advantage of the consequences of climate change (UKCIP, 2007). Building adaptive capacity to climate change requires improving the understanding of climate change and associated risks, and knowledge of specific vulnerabilities to each of the climate risks. Building on how we address current climate risk with a careful attention to uncertainties (in particular, those associated with projected climate scenarios) and vulnerabilities in a future warming world can also be a less daunting task by utilizing participatory techniques as detailed in this module.

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STEP

1

STEP

2

Determine purpose and scope

Build a database of relevant information)

• Cite the importance of the sector to the municipal/provincial economy and population • Determine the link of the sector‘s performance to current changes in the climate (preanalysis) • Specify area/location • Describe climatic and socio-economic conditions that affect the area • Determine timeframes (baseline and projected) for the assessment to be done • Determine actors

• Gather all the data needed and building the necessary database (Refer to Table 6.1)

STEP

3

Roll-out the vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment • Impacts assessments • Community perception of local climate change, • Community perception of impacts of local climate change on agriculture)

Method • Focus group discussion/ workshops

Tools • Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA) • Seasonal calendar • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments/ ratings


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

STEP

STEP

4

5

Analysis of data and outputs of rollouts

Validation (through a multi-stakeholder validation workshop)

STEP

6 Identify adaptation options and prioritize them

• Summarize the biophysical impacts of local climate change on the local agriculture sector • Summarize the non-climate factors confounding the impacts on the sector • Summarize sensitivities of farming and agriculture sector to climate change attributes • Summarize rating for adaptive capacity • Assess vulnerability of the agriculture sector

Tools • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments/ratings

Figure 6.1

Overview of the process, methods and tools for the assessment

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STEP

1 Determine purpose and scope

• Cite the importance of the sector to the municipal/provincial economy and population • Determine the link of the sector‘s performance to current changes in the climate (pre-analysis) • Specify area/location • Describe climatic and socio-economic conditions that affect the area • Determine timeframes (baseline and projected) for the assessment to be done • Determine actors

Determine purpose and scope

Things to consider include: • Purpose or main concern for which the assessment is being made • What areas are particularly vulnerable • Who may be affected, where they are, and what groups in the community/ society • What kind of inputs (data and information) are needed and possible data sources • How far into the future is the concern (time frames) • What are the tools/approaches to use Cite the importance of the sector to the municipal/provincial economy and population Use local figures from census reports, municipal reports, LGU development plans, etc. Determine the link of the sector‘s performance to current changes in the climate (pre-analysis) Use figures/reports on crop yields, damages, agricultural inputs and climate data/information; available national/local reports; literature survey on climate variability/change and links to agricultural production in other representative areas; etc. Specify area/location Describe climatic and socio-economic conditions that affect the area Characterize climate variability (i.e., rainfall, floods, droughts, tropical cyclone passage, etc.) and current socio-economic conditions in a specified area. Use climate statistics and extreme events data from local/national PAGASA stations, and socio-economic figures from the outputs of the previous module, etc. Determine time frames (baseline and projected) for the assessment to be done For example, baseline could be the local climate statistics from 1970-2000, and future time frames are 2020, 2050, etc. For socio-economic figures, find out how far into the future are reliable data available. Determine actors The actors may include farmers and their families, other households, communities, national/regional and local government units, non-government organizations/people‘s organizations on the ground, etc.)


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

STEP

2

Build a database of relevant information) • Gather all the data needed and building the necessary database

Determine and gather needed information and information sources, secondary and/or proxy information, if primary data are not available Needed information for the agricultural sector should include: • Physical characteristics: agricultural areas, types whether upland or lowland, soil types, etc. • Agricultural management systems: crops planted, cropping patterns and calendars, farming systems and agricultural practices, nutrient management practices, etc. • Support services: irrigation services, seed subsidies, agricultural technologies, demonstration farms, training events, post-harvest services and infrastructure, etc. • Agricultural productivity: crop damages, crop yields • Socio-economic characteristics: numbers of households, size of families, sources of incomes of households, demographics of farming communities, consumption patterns of households, • Climate data and information: temperatures (maximum, minimum, mean), seasonal changes in temperatures, occurrences of extreme weather/climate events (such as more intense and frequent tropical cyclones, more/less frequent intense rains, more floods, more droughts, etc.) start of rainy season (whether early or late), etc. • Current adaptation responses: use of new crop varieties, access to seed subsidies, change in cropping calendars, use of drought- and/or flood-resistant varieties, etc. • Projections (downscaled climate change scenarios, socio-economic for the LGUs), • LGU Development Plans Data gathering A pre-assessment activity is gathering all the data needed and building the necessary database. Table 6.1 presents the data needed and data sources.

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Table 6.1. Data needed and its sources for to build a database of relevant information


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

STEP

3 Method • Focus group discussion/ workshops

Tools • Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA) • Seasonal calendar • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments/ ratings

Roll-out the vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment • Impacts assessments • Community perception of local climate change, • Community perception of impacts of local climate change on agriculture)

* The climate information coming from this activity

needs to be reviewed by the climate specialist. If a climate specialist is not available, the information must be validated with PAGASA.

Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment roll-out In the case of LGUs where there are no observed local weather data and production data are sparse/ short-term, making it insufficient for meaningful and reliable analysis, the appropriate tool to be used is the Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA). It is a community-based assessment in which local stakeholders are the main sources of data. It involves the following steps:

Impacts assessments Community perception of local climate change* Conduct the community-based data gathering of data on changes in the local climate using focus group discussions (FGDs) and/or mini-workshops using a set of questions that will draw the information from the group. Targeted are anecdotal accounts of locally observed climate and changes but these should be validated using relevant climate information at PAGASA, and triangulated with information from Key Informants‘ Interviews (KIIs). A sample of information drawn is shown in Table 6.2.

Table 6.2. Sample information gathered from a community on changes in the local climate

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Community perception of impacts of local climate change on agriculture Conduct the community-based gathering of the data on observed impacts of the local climate on the local agricultural productivity using the following set of questions/tools that will draw the appropriate information from the local community. Establish the cropping calendar of each principal crop Tool to be used: Seasonal calendar Instructions for the seasonal calendar:* 1. Describe the characteristics of the mean climate of the area (e.g. maulan, walang masyadong ulan, malamig, mainit, may baha, tagtuyot, etc.) 2. Using Table 6.3 as a template, under each month, fill in the agricultural activity (e.g. land tilling or land preparation, sowing of seeds, transplanting, etc.)

Table 6.3. Sample table for analysis of seasonal calendar

* Include all other additional facts presented by workshop participants that do not fit in the table such as: 1. 2. 3.

There are crops interspersed between the coconuts; root crops, cassava, banana (for local/domestic consumption). Problems/limitations: for rice: Kakulangan ng tubig (including insufficient irrigation services), peste (daga, ricebugs, stem borers, etc.), lack of financial assistance in procuring production inputs, inadequate diffusion of agricultural technology. for banana: Virus infestation What services are available? Extension services (seed subsidy, demo farms for organic farming, Palay Check, and Farmer Partners/Cooperators with a membership of 30 members per, but only for rice farmers.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Using the cropping calendar as a point of reference, expand the details for the impacts of the local climate change on the principal crops Tool to be used: FGDs/workshops/meta cards Guide Question: Describe all changes in the climate observed in recent years (especially if these changes have resulted to impacts (both negative and positive), and indicate these impacts. 1. Identify the direct and indirect impacts of local climate change on agriculture sector Tool: Worksheet template- Direct and indirect impacts of local climate change on agriculture sector (Table 6.4)

Table 6.4. Direct and indirect impacts of local climate change on agriculture sector

2. Determine the sensitivity of the farming sector to climate variables Tool: Worksheet and rating system similar to what is shown below. Assessing sensitivity of agricultural production to impacts of climate change and/or variability (Table 6.5). 3. Describe current responses to changes in climate Conduct a survey of current adaptation responses from the field, key informants, LGU agricultural offices, field reports, NGOs involved in community-based development projects, etc. Document how these have minimized damages/agricultural input losses, resulted to benefits, or no benefits/gains (in the case of no benefits/advantages). 4. Determine adaptive capacity of the agriculture sector Tool: Description and rating of all socioeconomic attributes, available resources, LGU development plans. (Table 6.6)

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Table 6.5. Sample table to determine degree of sensitivity of agricultural production to different climate attributes

Instructions for completing the table: Determine degree of sensitivity of agricultural production to the different climate attributes (manifestations/ indications of climate change/variability) by rating the degree to which it is affected. Ratings are from 1 to 3: 1 Least affected or low sensitivity 2 Medium sensitivity 3 Highly affected or high sensitivity The higher the total rating, the higher is the sensitivity of any crop/crops to manifestations of climate change/ variability. Suggested metric for sensitivity is given below: 1.0 - 1.44 1.45 - 2.44 2.45 - 3.0

Low sensitivity Medium sensitivity High sensitivity


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Table 6.6. Sample table to assess adaptive capacity

Instructions for completing the table: Instructions for completing the table: Using the information gathered from the various documents from the MPDOs, MAOS and others, fill in the columns, then determine overall rating of adaptive capacity, using a rating scale (Ratings are low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high).

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STEP

4

Analysis of data and outputs of roll-outs The assessment of the vulnerability of the agriculture sector in this step can be aided by using the worksheet below (Table 6.7).

Analysis of data and outputs of roll-outs • Summarize the biophysical impacts of local climate change on the local agriculture sector • Summarize the non-climate factors confounding the impacts on the sector • Summarize sensitivities of farming and agriculture sector to climate change attributes • Summarize rating for adaptive capacity • Assess vulnerability of the agriculture sector

Tools • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments/ratings

Instructions for completing the table: Fill in the specific rating for each of the item in the table. Some general rules to follow: • If exposure is high, vulnerability is high • Similarly, if sensitivity is high, vulnerability is also high • But when adaptive capacity is high, vulnerability is low Alternatively, the vulnerability of the agriculture sector can be quantified by using the equation: Vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

V = P x E / AC V = vulnerability P = probability of climate risks happening (sensitivity) E = percentage of population/sector exposed to the risks AC = adaptive capacity indicated by the poverty incidence in the community or the characteristics of the resources, institutional capacities and access to resources in the sector

The results are validated in a Multi-stakeholder Validation Workshop, where preliminary results of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, including hazards and risks maps simultaneously done with the V&A assessments are presented to the stakeholders and validated. The suggested adaptation options across sectors will be prioritized using a multi-criteria analysis (refer to Module 9). Table 6.7: Sample table in assessing the vulnerability of the agriculture sector


VOLUME 2 MODULE 6 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Main types and specific examples of adaptation options in the agriculture sector Technological

Crop development • New crop varieties to increase tolerance and suitability • Weather and climate information systems • Early warning systems that provide weather and climate forecast Resource management innovations • Develop water management innovations, including irrigation • Develop farm-level resource management innovations

Government programs and insurance

Agricultural subsidy and support programs • Modify subsidy, support and incentive programs to influence farm-level production practices • Change assistance programs to share publicly the risk of farm-level income loss associated with disasters and extreme events Resource management programs • Develop and implement policies and programs to influence farm-level and water • Resource use and management in light of changing conditions Weather-based insurance • Develop private insurance to reduce climate-related risks

Farm financial management

Financial management • Diversify source of household income • Develop alternative livelihood sources

Farm production practices

Farm production • Diversify crop types and varieties to address environmental variations • Change intensification of production to address risks Land use • Change location of crop/livestock production Irrigation • Implement selective irrigation practices to address moisture deficiencies Timing of operations • Change timing of farm operations to address • Changing growing seasons and changes in climate

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module 7


Module

7

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2 Module 7: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Coastal and marine sector

This module will give a practical guide on how to undertake a V&A assessment for the coastal and marine sector. It will provide the background together with the tools and methods used from data gathering, analysis, validation and prioritization.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

Module

7

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Coastal and Marine sector Module objectives Provide tools to determine existing vulnerabilities to climate change and trends in marine and coastal communitiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; practices and approaches in coastal management as well as existing management strategies to address these Provide tools to analyse vulnerabilities

and trends to determine priorities and recommendations to the coastal resources management plan

The coastal ecosystems of the Philippines are some of the most productive and biologically diverse in the world. However, they are under severe stress from the combined impacts of human over-exploitation, physical disturbance, pollution, sedimentation and general neglect. Climate change poses another set of issues that will exacerbate these existing vulnerabilities. It is important to analyze first the existing vulnerabilities of coastal communities, together with the trends and management strategies that may be in place to tackle these vulnerabilities. From this, we can build onto these additional stress factors attributable to climate change, the potential socioeconomic impacts and climate change adaptation measures.

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STEP

1

Determine baseline • Use of secondary data

A

STEP

2

Coastal resource mapping and assessment • Conduct of Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development • Coastal area checklist • Participatory mapping • Coastal transects • Problem and issue ranking • Problem tree • Trend analysis/ timeline • Seasonality matrix/ calendar • Fishing effort map • Resource use data

Method • Focus group discussion/ workshops

Tool • Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development15

B Vulnerability Assessment • Impacts assessment • Reviewed visa-vis socioeconomic impacts • Describe sensitivity of the area, population and resources

Tool • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

C Determine existing initiatives, gaps and recommendations

Tool • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments/ratings

STEP

3

Analysis of data and outputs of rollouts

STEP

4

Presentation of results/ validation

• Review of existing Coastal Resource Management initiatives applicable to address impacts • Examine future strategies • Determine costs, benefits, resources needed • Ranking of importance

Tool • Worksheets/ sample templates for assessments/ratings

Figure 7.1

Overview of the process, methods and tools for the assessment

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STEP

1

Determine baselines It is the review and analysis of available secondary data that serves as a baseline against which one can compare present conditions, status and behavior. Among the sources of secondary data are local government units ( municipal and provincial planning offices, government agencies), research institutions ( universities, technical schools and non-government organizations or people‘s organizations) that may have conducted previous studies.

Secondary data sources include: • Fisheries profile • Environmental data • Fish catch data • Gear Inventory • Resource use data • Institutional and legal frameworks • Seasonality matrix • Fishing effort map • Coastal management efforts/initiatives These could be sourced from the environmental and agricultural officers of the LGUs, DA-BFAR, DENR and universities. All secondary data must be validated and, in many instances, updated with community-level participatory coastal resource assessment, mapping and development workshops.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

STEP

2

Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development

Participatory Coastal Resource Assessment, Mapping and Development is a tool that contains several activities to conduct with the coastal community. • • • • • • • • •

Coastal area checklist Participatory mapping Coastal transects Problem and issue ranking Problem tree Trend analysis/timeline Seasonality matrix/calendar Fishing effort map Resource use data

Each of these activities are described further in the following pages to assist the facilitator in conducting them. Each activity description contains guidelines in terms of: • • • •

Methodology Materials Examples Suggestions/ reminders

15 Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM). 2000. Sustainable Coastal Resource Management Course. PRRM-Conrado Benitez Institute for Sustainability (CBIS)

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STEP

Activity

2A 1

Coastal area checklist

This is an activity designed to determine and characterize the geographical and physical features including the past and present land uses of a particular coastal area to produce a standardized checklist. This is achieved by asking the participants to list down all the coastal and marine resources in their area. The use of a standardized checklist will enable the comparison of municipalities and areas that is useful for planning of future activities. Each feature could be given a rating, with the bare minimum being the presence or absence within the boundaries. Examples of coastal area checklists:


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

STEP

Activity

2A 2

Participatory mapping

This is a method designed to integrate various spatial information in a graphic format. The participants indicate relevant information on corresponding maps based on their knowledge of physical, biological and social conditions in their communities. The coastal area checklist can be used as a guide. Different types of maps may be drawn on large sized manila paper using colored chalks, felt pens and pencils. This kind of mapping is not gridded and therefore cannot be directly translatable to a GIS map but could be used as a complementation for the GIS map if the two are compared side by side. In addition this map will also be used to highlight areas of vulnerabilities to hazards such as coastal erosion, flooding, storm surge, subsidence, etc., to build up a picture for assessing hazards to the coastal communities and will be further enhanced during the discussion on climate change and sea level rise. It can also be used to highlight areas of adaptive capacity such as marine reserves, mangrove reforestation areas, etc. Methodology • Ask participants to draw their barangay/municipality outline on a piece of manila paper • Using the coastal area checklist ask them to highlight areas of the coastal resources – they can develop and document their own legend for this • Using pieces of red paper/ post-its/metacards, ask the participants to list areas of vulnerabilities to the coastal and marine resources, and post these on the relevant areas of the map • Using pieces of green paper/post-its/metacards, ask the participants to list areas of adaptive capacities with the coastal and marine resources and post these on the relevant areas of the map • As an additional exercise, the participants can list areas of fishing grounds, species caught, gear used on the map Without the fishing grounds

Example of a participatory map

With the fishing grounds

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STEP

Activity

2A 3

Coastal transects

This activity follows after the coastal area maps have been prepared. The location of the coastal transects will be marked on the coastal area map, with a line drawn through the area where a transect has been prepared. The participants are asked to describe the past and present conditions, uses and problems encountered. Example of a Coastal Transect


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

STEP

Activity

2A 4

Problem and issue ranking

Problem and issue ranking is a tool used by a community to identify and rank problems and issues in order of priority by assessing their relative importance using a set of criteria. Problem and issue ranking is often followed by an analysis using either a problem tree or a web chart. Problems and issues are raised through a brainstorming session. Issues can include: • Low fish catch (1970s: 5-15kg/day; 1980s: 3-7kg/ day; 1990s: 2-5kg/day; 2000s: 0.5-2kg/day) • Overfishing • Illegal fishing practices (fine mesh net, dynamite, poison, tear gas): increasing prevalence since the 1980s • Encroachment of Commercial Fishing Vessels with superlights • Use of compressor • Fish net usage (cagot) • Degraded coral reefs • Illegal cutting of mangroves – no tall/mature trees left • Waste management • No proper drainage • Sea level rise • Increasing temperatures • Erratic rainfall/weather patterns • Open access, limited or no patrolling • Lack of enforcement

Possible criteria for ranking problems include: • Extent or scope (number of people or areas affected by the problem) • Degree of impact on a particular resource (how serious are the effects of the problem on the resource), e.g., destruction of reefs, decline in fish stocks • Occurrence or regularity (how frequent does the problem occur, during what season, etc.) Each problem is analyzed according to the criteria set and given a score e.g. on a predetermined scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest. The total sum for each problem reveals the relative importance of the problem and how it ranks compared to the other problems. The community can then prioritize their problems and issues so that they can focus their energies and resources to the most important problems.

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STEP

Activity

2A 5

Problem tree

Problem trees are diagrammatic presentations of a problem, its causes and effects. These are done after a community has identified and prioritized its problems. The aim of this tool is to identify the core problem, its root causes and effects. It also helps community members, development agencies, planners and researchers identify the cause and effect of a specific problem, and to agree on points of action. Methodology: • The participants are divided for the small group workshops. • Each group selects one of the prioritized issues from the problem and issue ranking outputs (refer to tool above) and places it in the center of a piece of manila paper (in the location of the trunk of the tree). • The tree tops are outlined and these will contain the effects of the issues. From the issue the question that is asked is what happens? This is repeated until no more effects can be described. • The roots of the tree symbolize the root causes of the issues. To attain these the question that is asked is why? Again, this is repeated until there are no more responses • All the groups outputs are presented side by side to observe inter-related root causes and effects between issues. This also highlights that issues need to be”unpacked” to fully understand the complexities before initiatives can be designed to effectively address them.

STEP

Activity

2A 6

Trend analysis/ timeline

This is a chronology of significant events that have taken place in the village. It is constructed together with or in consultation with villagers. Specific examples of timelines include: migration patterns, establishment of industries, history of the village, etc. Local histories such as technology histories, crops histories, histories of fish species caught and population change may also be depicted by timelines. This can also include if any species are no longer seen/caught and the time when they were last seen/caught. This can then be related back to the other inputs to see if any correlations can be drawn.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

STEP

Activity

2A 7

Seasonality matrix/calendar

Changes in seasonal constraints and opportunities are reflected in a diagram showing month by month variation, variation in types of fish caught, and occurrence of disease which are among the topics that could be portrayed in a seasonal diagram. The information from the coastal seasonality matrix can be used for planning Coastal Resource Management (CRM) activities, e.g. information regarding the fruiting times of different mangrove species will be important for the planning of when is the most suitable time for the planting of a mangrove rehabilitation project. Symbols are used to represent the data in the matrix.

Activity/ Event Weather Expenditure Fish catch (detailed by species) Illegal activities (detailed by activity) Tourism Important dates

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

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STEP

Activity

2A 8

Fishing effort map

This activity aims for an overall picture of fishing activity in the area based on the actual data of municipal fisherfolks and observations of commercial fishing activity. It will enable the group to identify important fishing grounds and allow the suggestion of possible fishery management strategies that would be appropriate for the area. The activity is conducted in a similar style to that of the coastal area map by use of a base map. Fishing areas are then plotted on the base map. Different colored pens can be used to differentiate between motorized boats and those using paddles/oars only. Note: Time will be needed for the participants to gain familiarity with the base map

Example of a fishing effort map


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

Fishing gear and catch inventory This activity can be conducted in conjunction with the fishing effort map, using a small focus group discussion style. Preparing the fishing gear inventory is best accomplished by informal discussions with fisherfolk who use these gear and have them explain or illustrate the gear type. The fish catch inventory is simply a list of the fishery species that are found in the area and caught by the community. Further discussion that can lead from this could include linking the fish catch species with particular coastal habitats where or adjacent to where they are caught, identifying unsustainable fishing gears, etc. It can also include data gathering on the number of fishers in the area, number of fish traders, price of fish (selling and buying), number of fish landing sites, number of motorized boats, number of nonmotorized boats, number of fishers per boat, hours of fishing, average number of kilos caught, number of Bantay Dagat (sea wardens), etc.

Icebreaker: Fish game Methodology • Cut out different colored metacards into the shape of fish. Cut out small fish and large fish of each color • Around the venue, post up headings: mangrove, corals, deep water/offshore and post up a mixture of the fish at each station • Divide the participants into the following categories: motorized boat operator, nonmotorized boat operator, fish trader • For the fish trader, they are responsible for collecting the landing fish, sorting their species and sizes, pricing and paying the fisher for the catch. They also have to mark the price on the fish that the consumer will pay. They only have a finite amount of money (pieces of metacards), so when they run out, the market closes. • The fishers have to find and catch the fish and bring them back to the market before it closes

This game is an ice-breaker and introduces in a fun way serious topics of income and expenditures. The facilitator observes the whole process and initiates a discussion after the market has closed by asking what the participants felt of the activity. Noted observations of the activity can include: • The fishers went to the closest areas to collect the fish so they could return to the market in time. This oftentimes meant that the non-motorized boat operators were at a disadvantage as the closest areas were overfished. The deep water areas they could not go to, whereas the motorized boat operators could. This could start a discussion on zoning of fishing grounds • The larger fish were preferred as these would bring a higher price, but if there was no option, all the smaller fish would be taken as well. This could start a discussion on exploitation of resources and overfishing issues • If many fish were brought to the market at the same time the price the fishers received was low. If they were the first back and not many others had arrived back they received a higher price. This starts a discussion on supply and demand, and the possibilities for fish processing in time of high fish catch • Customers always had to pay a higher price for fish bought so the profit went to the traders. This could start a discussion on trading practices and expenses This leads into the next activity.

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STEP

Activity

2A 9

Resource use data

This will look into income and expenditures of the coastal communities, price of commodities â&#x20AC;&#x201C; buying and selling, marketing and trading systems, and history of resource use and trends together with institutional arrangements of access, control and management. From this section, we can analyze which impacts/issues identified are existing vulnerabilities of the coastal sector and which could be directly and indirectly linked to climate change. This will enable a discussion and, if necessary, provide an orientation on climate change to further enhance the aspect for coastal management strategies and climate change adaptation.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

STEP

Activity

2B 1

Vulnerability assessment to climate change From this, an enhanced list of impacts will be assessed vis-a-vis the socioeconomic impacts on the following: Tourism, human settlements/infrastructure, agriculture, water supply, fisheries, financial services, human health, coastal resources This list is not exhaustive and can be added to depending on the outcome of the discussion sessions. The relative importance of potential impacts will be ranked as:

1

Not relevant

2

Low

3

Medium

4

High

This will then be detailed through discussion to describe the sensitivity of the area, population and resources to the impacts.

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STEP

Activity

2B 2

Adaptation assessment to climate change Adaptation measures will be discussed: those from existing CRM initiatives that are still applicable, to examining future strategies such as the following for example: Planned retreat, accommodation, protection, structural or physical strategies, non- structural strategies and capacity-enhancing measures The costs, benefits, resources needed (internal and external) and ranking of importance will be assessed.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

STEP

2C

Identify existing initiatives, gaps and recommendations This is the culminating activity and participants will be asked to complete the Matrix of Existing Initiatives, Gaps and Recommendations.

Issue Dynamite fishing

Mangrove deforestation

Initiative (P/P/A) •

Fisherfolk livelihood program: crab fattening, fish cages, seaweed production

Hali-an Island fish sanctuary

Mangrove planting

Ordinance 2-year ordinance

Gaps

Recommendations

Lack of fuel for operation of the Bantay Dagat patrols

Need Municpal Ordinance for coastal protection Adaptation of national law; add one fish sanctuary in Brgy. San Jose

Mangrove rangers association

Honorarium and incentives for Bantay Dagat

Additional support for Resource mobilization: expansion funding request assistance from involved agencies, NGOs, etc. Use of fishnet

Bantay Dagat

Seaborn patrol

Further recommendations for adaptive measures: • Illegal fish catch monitoring • Fish catch monitoring • Ban illegal fishing practices • Develop local policy environment for CRM • Bantay Dagat – working closely with PNP • Mangrove guards (Bantay Gubat) – working closely with PNP • Creation of and fully functional Peace and Order Council • Identify and establish creek-mangrove-reef continuum for protection • Explore pilot study on brood stock culture • Brood stock culture, hatchery and nursery development • Increase number of marine protected areas

Lack of fuel for operation of the Bantay Dagat patrols

• Reforestation of mangroves • Community-based forest management • Replanting seagrass • Climate-resilient supplemental livelihood provision (based on study of available local resources • Further develop ecotourism based on coastal resources & IEC • Mangrove tours • Deep sea fishing • CRM Education Centers: crocodiles, turtles, MPAs, mangroves • Turtle conservation: Bantay Pawikan • Island life tours • Improve tourism infrastructure: water, food supply, power, communications

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STEP

3

Analysis The outputs from all the previous steps are categorized into the following aspects: • Fisheries • Coastal resources • Socio-economic The above outputs can be developed into indicators for sensitivity and adaptive capacity, together with criteria for rating as shown in Table 7.1. As in Module 5, the above will produce weighted rating for vulnerability. The results are validated in a Multi-stakeholder Validation Workshop, where preliminary results of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, including hazards and risks maps simultaneously done with the V&A assessments, are presented to the stakeholders and validated. The suggested adaptation options across sectors will be prioritized using a multi-criteria analysis (refer to Module 9).


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

Table 7.1. Sensitivity: Fisheries Fishing effort Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Dominant catch

Gear type

Gear type

3

2

2

All migratory pelagic e.g. tuna, mackerel, etc.

1

Mainly migratory pelagic

2

Mix of demersal fish and pelagic species

3

Mainly demersal fish e.g. groupers

4

All demersal fish

5

All mobile gear

1

Mostly mobile gear

2

Mix of fixed and mobile gear

3

Mainly fixed gear

4

All fixed gear

5

>8kg/day

1

6-8kg/day

2

4-6kg/day

3

2-4kg/day

4

1-2kg/day

5

Adaptive Capacity: Fisheries Fishing grounds Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Habitat condition

3

Very small areas of habitat dependant fisheries grounds (relative to barangay waters)

1

Few areas of habitat dependent fisheries grounds (relative to barangay waters)

2

Medium-sized areas of habitat dependent fisheries grounds (relative to barangay waters)

3

Large areas of habitat dependent fisheries grounds (relative to barangay waters)

4

Very large areas of habitat dependent fisheries grounds (relative to barangay waters)

5

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Adaptive capacity: Fisheries Fishing grounds Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Average size of fish caught

3

Change in catch composition through time

2

All small, immature fish

1

Mostly small, immature fish

2

Abundant small fish, but with few large fish)

3

Mostly large, adult fish

4

All adult, large fish

5

Extreme changes in last 10 years

1

Considerable changes in last 10 years

2

Few changes in last 10 years

3

Minimal changes in catch composition

4

No change in catch composition

5

Sensitivity: Coastal resources Quality Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Reef fish trophic structures

2

Density of coral dependant species 3

Habitat quality: Corals 3

Habitat quality: Mangroves 3

<10% of the total density are plantivores

1

10-20% of the total density are plantivores

2

20-25% of the total density are plantivores

3

25-35% of the total density are plantivores

4

>35% of the total density are plantivores

5

<5% of the total density

1

5-10% of the total density

2

10-15% of the total density

3

15-25% of the total density

4

>25% of the total density

5

>75% coral cover in excellent condition

1

50-75% coral cover in excellent condition

2

25-50% coral cover in excellent condition

3

15-25% coral cover in excellent condition

4

<5% coral cover in excellent condition

5

<5% mangroves denuded

1

5-25% mangroves denuded

2

25-50% mangroves denuded

3

50-75% mangroves denuded

4

>75% mangroves denuded

5


VOLUME 2 MODULE 7 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: COASTAL AND MARINE SECTOR

Adaptive capacity: Coastal resources Fishing grounds Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Extent of habitats 3

Presence of adjacent Habitats (corals, mangroves, seagrass)

Presence of protection measures

3

3

More gaps than cover

1

Small areas, fragmented cover

2

Intermediate size of areas: patchy

3

Intermediate size of areas

4

Large areas of cover

5

No adjacent habitat

1

Poor adjacent habitat

2

One habitat is of poor quality, or very far

3

Good adjacent habitat quality

4

Excellent adjacent habitat quality

5

No MPAs, mangrove management

1

Plans for MPAs, mangrove management

2

Presence of MPAs, mangrove management

3

Presence of MPAs, mangrove management

4

Presence of MPAs, mangrove management, fully enforced, implemented and sustained

5

Sensitivity: Social-Economic Environmental capacity Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability) Population density is < 50 people/km2

1 2

Population density is between 50-100 people/km2

Population density 2

Land use 3

Population density is between 100-250 people/km

2

3

Population density is between 250-500 people/km

2

4

Population density is >500 people/km2

5

Less than 10% population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

1

10% - 25% population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income

2

26 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 50% population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income

3

51% - 75% population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income.

4

Greater than 75% population is dependent on natural resources for primary source of income

5

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Adaptive capacity: Social-Economic Economic Capacity Indicators

Weights

Criteria for indicator ranking (1: Low vulnerability, 5: very high vulnerability)

Employment opportunities 3

Unemployment and poverty incidence

Household (HH) income level and expenditure, consumption, and exports

3

3

Plentiful and varied employment opportunities

1

Sufficient employment opportunities

2

Limited employment opportunities

3

Lack of employment opportunities within the municipality for new graduates

4

Lack of employment opportunities within the municipality for the economically productive population and new graduates

5

Majority of the economically productive population are employed and there is no poverty

1

>75% of the economically productive population are employed and there is <10% poverty

2

50%-74% of the economically productive population are employed and there is 11%-45% poverty

3

15%-49% of the economically productive population are employed and there is 46%-75% poverty

4

<15% of the economically productive population are employed and there is >75% poverty

5

Household income surpasses expenditure and all goods available from local sources

1

Household income matches expenditure; basic essentials available from local sources

2

Household income 75% of expenditure; majority of basic essentials imported

3

Household income half of expenditures; all basic essentials imported

4

Household income < half of expenditure; majority of goods imported

5


module 8


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Module

8

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2 Module 8: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Health sector

This module will give a practical guide on how to undertake a V&A assessment for the health sector. It will provide the background together with the tools and methods used from data gathering, analysis, validation and prioritization.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

Module

8

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment: Health sector Module objectives Introduce vulnerability- specific climate-sensitive diseases Provide tools that will help define vulnerability and assessment baselines in order to help local adaptation mechanisms for climate change and health

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.16 The vulnerability of human health to climate change is a function of: • Sensitivity, which includes the extent to which health, or the natural or social systems on which health outcomes depend are sensitive to changes in weather and climate (the exposure–response relationship) and the characteristics of the population, such as the level of development and its demographic structure • Exposure to the weather or climate-related hazard, including the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation • The adaptation measures and actions in place to reduce the burden of a specific adverse health outcome (the adaptation baseline), the effectiveness of which determines in part the exposure–response relationship17 Health and climate change relationships have been studied, and pathways for this have been suggested where modifications to influences in the environmental, social and health system conditions spell for variations. That is to say, those relationships are complex and not one way.

16 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). 17 WHO. 2003. Methods of Assessing Human Health Vulnerability and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change. World Health Organization, Geneva. available at www.euro.who.int/document/e81923.pdf.

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STEP

STEP

1

Identify/ screen health vulnerability in the area/ community • Presence of diseases (determine climate sensitivity; consider epidemic potential) • Consider number of cases, occurrence of disease • Availability of response mechanisms • Health infrastructure (human and financial/infra– health centers/ hospitals • Occurrence of extreme weather events (quantity and quality)

2

Conduct analysis (quantitative/ qualitative) • Utilize sentinel sites NESSS/MET for weather parameters • Focused Group Discussions/ KII • Utilize Adaptive Capacity Assessment tool

Method • Statistical unit analysis (quantitative) • Focus group discussion/ interviews (qualitative)

Tool • Statistical modelling (quantitative) • Adaptive Capacity Checklist (qualitative) • Guide Questions


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

STEP

3

Identify action to be taken • Preventive (adaptation) over curative (mitigation) parameters • Prioritize measures • Efficiency vs. effectiveness • Cost/timeframe i.e. Information drives/ mass screening, smearing for febrile people, fast lane for dengue • Policy formulation for health impactsclimate change compliance/resilience

STEP

4

Evaluate and feedback • Utilize statistical analysis and correlate adaptation measures • Identify indicators of success (intermediate and long term) • Refine flowchart to incorporate other factors (i.e. socioeconomic)

Figure 8.1

This figure shows the process of the health vulnerability and adaptation assessment process. For this module, we will look at first the vulnerability- specific climate-sensitive diseases and come up with a tool mainly for Step 2, to measure health vulnerabilities and assess how adaptive capacities can be made to respond to it.

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STEP

1

Identify health vulnerability in an area/ community

In general, the vulnerability of a population to a health risk depends on the local environment, the level of material resources, the effectiveness of governance and civil institutions, the quality of the public health infrastructure and the access to relevant local information on extreme weather threats19. In the Philippine health sector, the early vulnerabilities identified are the following:20 • Climate-sensitive diseases - Emerging and re-emerging diseases: multiple drug resistant tuberculosis, malaria • Changing disease patterns – Double burden of disease : infectious and lifestyle • Health Infrastructure – Human Resource constraints – Physical Resource constraints • Non-health determinants – Disasters – Socio-economic (Poverty)

• Geographical set up (multiple island archipelago)21 • Isolated Island Cities and Municipalities • Dependency level for resources22 • Information • Technology Effectively targeting prevention or adaptation strategies requires understanding of which demographic or geographical sub-populations may be most at risk and when that risk is likely to increase. Thus, individual, community, regional and geographical factors determine vulnerability.23 In our situation then, looking at the following initial vulnerabilities will help us determine adaptive capacities needed to respond to the potential health effects of climate change. Figure 8.2 shows a schematic diagram of pathways by which climate change affects health, and concurrent direct-acting and modifying (conditioning) influences of environmental, social and health-system factors.

Figure 8.2. Schematic diagram of pathways by which climate change affects health, and concurrent direct-acting and modifying (conditioning) influences of environmental, social and health-system factors.18

18 Confalonieri, U., B. Menne, R. Akhtar, K.L. Ebi, M. Hauengue, R.S. Kovats, B. Revich and A. Woodward, 2007: Human health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 391-431. 19 Woodward AI Et. Al. 1998. 20 Paraso, GV. The Philippines: Enabling Activities for the Preparation of the Philippines‘ Second National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC Project, August 2009. 21 McMichael AJ and Woodward AI, 2000. 22 Woodward AI, Hales, S and Weinstein, P, 1998. 23 Ebi, KL Et. Al. Assessing Public Human Health Vulnerability and Public Health adaptation to climate Variablility and Change 2005.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

STEP

2

Conduct analysis: Quantitative and Qualitative) A more technical guideline on how to do a quantitative assessment is not included in this module as it is a technical skill that is assigned to statisticians and those that have knowledge of statistical packages. We will have to bear with data that is available in the local area for both diseases and climate data.

Quantitative Assessment Vulnerability is composed of the three elements adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate variability. This assessmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s quantitative aspect looks at the sensitivity and exposure of elements utilizing a statistical unit analysis relating the vulnerability of climate-sensitive diseases as it interacts with climate parameters relative to humidity, temperature and rainfall over time. Sensitivity and exposure can be measured with the distribution of the climate-sensitive diseases described across time, place and demographic characteristics. The statistical analysis and modelling done to project change in disease incidence concomitant with change in climate factors is a proxy tool to estimate the sensitivity of the system to climate variability and change. Data gathering Data on climate factors and identified climate sensitive diseases will be collected through records reviewed from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the DOH-National Epidemiology Center (NEC), respectively. Data on disease can be gathered from the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (NESS) of the DOH-NEC, the official information system being used to pick up cases on selected communicable diseases. Data from twenty years plus back will be collected (covering 1999-2011). As the Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (PIDSR) is a

relatively new information system intended to be an improvement of the surveillance system of the DOH, it is still in its early stages of establishment in the project implementation areas as of the conduct of this study, thus, data from the PIDSR will be used at a later time. Baseline data presently come from two sources for the data on sentinel diseases at the Department of Health/National Epidemiology Center. These are: A) Notifiable Disease Reporting (NDR) is a passive system but has a wide coverage The information is limited by reports coming in from rural health units and selected hospitals. Further, there are no case definitions used by reporting units. Currently, this is being enhanced into the Philippine Integrated Disease and Response System (PIDSR), but they are still at the training phase. B) National Epidemic Sentinel Surveillance System (NESSS) actively monitors 13 diseases of epidemic potential. The system uses case definitions so the consistency is high. However, reporting units (sentinel sites) are not as widespread as the NDR. This is the national module of the PIDSR. Data sources from the NESSS are available for the last 20-50 years (1999-2011) on five of the notifiable diseases that are deemed climate sensitive: malaria, dengue, schistosomiasis, typhoid, cholera. We will only use the NESSS which has more robustness due to its available case definition, but the NDR â&#x20AC;&#x201C; through the FHSIS can act as far second backup/proxy but is less reliable for its being passive and having inadequate case definition.

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The National Epidemic Sentinel Surveillance System (NESSS) data will show • Trends of diseases by year and month • Risk factors for disease transmission upon investigation of cases • Information to formulate hypotheses for disease causation • Clustering of cases in a geographical area • Estimates of the effectiveness of intervention measures • Demographic characteristics of cases – age, gender • Vaccination status of cases with EPI diseases • Estimates of case fatality ratios (CFR) The NESSS data will not show • Incidence rates • Prevalence rates

determine the adaptive capacity of the organization to decrease vulnerabilities to identified climatesensitive diseases. Complementary participative focused group discussions and key informant interviews will be used as further validation. This will complement the baseline quantitative assessment of the exposure and sensitivity element and give us a baseline of their adaptive capacity. The two processes combined will serve as a measure of community response and resilience to the health impacts of climate change. The health vulnerability and adaptation assessment identifies the vulnerabilities of the affected population. It starts with determining the scope and purpose, followed by data collection and gathering, description of the current disease burden of climate sensitive health determinants and outcomes, then the assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities and a determination of the adaptation measures needed to reduce the potential negative health impacts.24

Qualitative Assessment

The Adaptive Capacity Checklist

Adaptive capacity can be measured through a qualitative assessment, using a checklist as a tool. The tool was developed in an earlier WHO study for climate change and vulnerability to determine the adaptive capacity of the health sector to the impact of climate change on five diseases identified to be climate-sensitive. This same tool will now be applied for five climate- sensitive diseases identified: malaria, dengue, cholera, typhoid, schistosomiasis.

A checklist was developed to assess the adaptive capacity of the health sector to the impact of climate change on diseases identified to be climatesensitive.25

The qualitative assessment looks at the adaptive capacity of the population through the readiness of the health organization to respond to the vulnerabilities of climate- sensitive disease health impacts. The IPCC has determined as early as its Third Annual report (2001) that the key factors of wealth, technology, information, education, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and stability and management capabilities are the essential determinants to adaptive capacities. These will be the key determinants that will be examined and used in a capacity assessment tool using a scoring system to

Components of the checklist

1) Individual checklists for local health offices Individual checklists to determine adaptive capacity to each of the disease are administered to representatives of the local health offices in the identified pilot sites. For these checklists, the respondents will rate their office‘s capacity in terms of three parameters: Technology, Information and Skills, and Institution. Each determinant is assigned a weight as follows: Technology – 30%; Information and Skills – 40%; Institution – 30%. 2) Basic requirements for technology and infrastructure Another complementary checklist looks into the basic requirements for technology and infrastructure that would support public health and safety. These

24 Paraso, GV. in The Philippines: Enabling Activities for the Preparation of the Philippines‘ Second National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC Project, V&A Toolkit, August 2009. 25 Paraso, GV. WHO-DOH PHL/10/EHH/002846, August 2011.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

are viewed as crosscutting factors regardless of what disease may become prevalent as a result of climate change. The weight assigned for each determinant for this checklist is as follows: • Technology – 50% • Infrastructure – 50% This is categorized into three levels of adaptation: low, medium and high adaptive capacity. The resulting category will serve as inputs to adaptation plans that will be developed as a response mechanism of the community to the projected negative health impacts of climate change. A sample adaptive capacity score interpretation is seen in Table 8.1. 3) Survey Questionnaire26 Table 8.1. A sample adaptive capacity score interpretation Score

A sample filled up Questionnaire is shown on the next page.

Significance

0-2.1

Low Adaptive Capacity The health system is lacking in two of the three key areas of adaptive capacity. There is little, if any, of the parameters of Technology, Information and Skills, and Institution, inherent or in place within the organization.

2.2-4.2

Medium Adaptive Capacity The health system is equipped with baseline features within the three key areas.

4.3-6.3

Together with this, a survey questionnaire tool 26 was developed that would be administered through a focused group discussion with the concerned community and health service providers in the health office concerned with the public health program implementation. It will also be important to take into consideration group responses to rainy season correlation, and drainage and storm water management in our implementation areas in the survey questionnaire tool where several studies have shown that these transmissions of enteric pathogens is higher during the rainy season27-28. Also drainage and storm water management is important in low-income urban communities, as blocked drains are one of the causes of increased disease transmission.29

High Adaptive Capacity The health system is well equipped to respond to the proliferation of the disease under study. The organization has the ability to prevent transmission of the disease.

Guide Questions (General Survey) Target respondent Consultation/Focused Group Discussions in the areas for validation of data (questionnaire), Health personnel, Community

1. What are the health vulnerabilities 2. Climate sensitivity (diseases) • What are the immediate past and existing disease occurrences (whether outbreak proportion or not but was otherwise noticeable) • How much of the population was affected (percentage or specific if available) 3. What are the response mechanisms • What were the responses of the LGU/ concerned agencies to the noticeable increase in the diseases (human and financial) • What were the cross sector responses • What were the weather conditions prevailing at the time of the increased incidence • What other contribution factors outside of the weather could have been present at the time

26 Paraso, GV. The Philippines: Enabling Activities for the Preparation of the Philippines‘ Second National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC Project, August 2009. 27 Nchito, M., P. Kelly, S. Sianongo, N.P. Luo, R. Feldman, M. Farthing and K.S. Baboo, 1998: Cryptosporidiosis in urban Zambian children: an analysis of risk factors. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 59, 435-437. 28 Kang, G., B.S. Ramakrishna, J. Daniel, M. Mathan and V. Mathan, 2001: Epidemiological and laboratory investigations of outbreaks of diarrhoea in rural South India: implications for control of disease. Epidemiol. Infect., 127, 107-112. 29 Parkinson, A.J. and J.C. Butler, 2005: Potential impacts of climate change on infectious diseases in theArctic. Int. J. Circumpolar Health, 64, 478-486.

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Sample filled-up checklist/ questionnaire result 1) What are the health vulnerabilities? Ano ang mga kahinaan sa kalusugan? Health infrastructure identified

Health infrastructure ranked

1. Transportation and 1. Water system: Level 1-2, not safe communication • Technology-no computer • Poor information 2. Sanitary toilet, sanitation, lack of • Isolated areas: GIDABrgy.__ toilets 3. Transportation and communication • Technology-no computer • Poor information • Isolated areas: GIDA- Brgy.__ 4. Manpowerdoctor, no dentist • RHU-BHS Bldg., dilapidated

2. Manpower- doctor, no dentist • RHU-BHS Bldg., dilapidated 3. Water system: Level 1-2, not safe

Disease identified

Disease ranked

1. Malnutrition

1. Malnutrition

2. URTI

2. URTI

3. Water-borne diseases

3. Water-borne diseases

4. Vulnerability to skin diseases 5. Lung diseases- e.g., tuberculosis, pneumonia

4. Vulnerability to skin diseases 5. Lung diseasese.g., tuberculosis, pneumonia

4. Sanitary toilet, sanitation, lack of toilets 5. Insufficient medicines • Lack of medical supplies and equipment

5. Insufficient medicines • Lack of medical supplies and equipment

The above responses were perceived to be health vulnerabilities (health infrastructure-wise and diseases) by the health workers and community when asked; they further ranked them in their given order of significance and effect to their population. They also volunteered perceived nonhealth vulnerabilities which they say, contribute to the health vulnerabilities: 1. Political will 2. Poverty 3. Wrong beliefs


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

2) Climate sensitivity (Diseases) Category a. What are the immediate past and existing disease occurrences (whether outbreak proportion or not but was otherwise noticeable)?

Ano ang mga nakalipas na mga nangyari sa mga sakit?

b. How much of the population was affected (percentage or specific if available)?

Response i. Water borne diseases ii. Amoeba iii. URTI iv. Lung Diseases – e.g. Tb, Pnuemonia v. Vulnerability to Skin Diseases vi. Malnutrition i. Water Borne Diseases affected: approx 10%

Gaano karami sa population ang apektado? c. What was the weather situation prevailing at the time of the increased incidence?

Unstable weather conditions where it was noted to be rainy then it would shift suddenly to sunny weather

Ano ang sitwasyon – weather noong nangyayari ang mga ito?

d. Weather parameters affecting the dynamics of disease transmission?

Vector : Favourable for the vector to live, in the water system, poor sanitation affects water system

Ano ang palagay ninyo ang nagdala/nagdulot ng mga ito?

3) What are the response mechanisms Category What are the responses of the LGU/ concerned agencies to the noticeable increase in the diseases (human and financial)?

Response •

Immediate financial support from the LGU

• •

Funds from World Vision, last January For water-borne diseases: water purifier from NGO

There were contributory factors perceived to have been present: • Beliefs, attitudes: they would rather go the traditional healer instead of going to the health center • Delayed consultation: Confused knowledge of the disease’s symptoms/ conditions

Ano ang mga ginawa ng gobyerno para tugunan ang mga ito? What are the cross-sector responses?

Ano ang mga tugon ng ibang sector? What other contribution factors outside of the weather could have been present at the time?

Anong ibang kondition, hindi ukol sa klima, ang maaring nangyari noong mga panahon na yoon?

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The Adaptive Capacity Checklist: Computation of checklist score and interpretation In the utilization of the adaptive capacity checklist the key factors to take as the parameters or determinates upon which the adaptive capacity of the health sector can be assessed are: • • • • • • • • •

Wealth Technology Education Information and skills Infrastructure Access to resources Stability and management capabilities Current health status Pre-existing disease burdens

Individual checklists, administered to representatives of the local health offices in the identified sites, provide the respondents rating of their office‘s capacity in terms of three parameters -- technology, information and skills, and institution. Technology refers to equipment, tool or system for the prevention, detection, management and surveillance of the disease under study. Availability and access to technology at various levels determines the ability to solve health problems, thereby resulting in a certain level of adaptive capacity. Information and skills refer to human capital or knowledge. The health system requires qualified and experienced staff for it to function effectively. For this determinant, two sub-elements can be identified-- trained health personnel and access to information. Institutions are an important determinant of adaptive capacity. When institutional arrangements are lacking or ineffective, there is lower capacity to adapt to changes. Sub-elements include health system, policy and regulations which provide support to institutional arrangements and management of the health system, and mechanism for public-private sector collaboration. These determinants or factors that could actually be identified as present or absent in the local health system can be included in a checklist. The details and examples should be specific for each of the disease under study (and endemic to the area).


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

Analysis

The interpretation of the total scores can be based on a range of values that are equivalent to a certain level of adaptive capacity depending on the definition. The Adaptive Capacity Assessment Checklist was developed with the same principle as the McKinsey Capacity Assessment Grid, a tool designed to help non-profit organizations assess their organizational capacity. The grid makes use of seven elements of organizational capacity and their components. The assessor then scores the organization on each element with a description of the organization’s current status or performance. Similarly, the checklist makes use of the determinants of adaptive capacity as defined by the IPCC. Initially, the tool was designed with a scale describing the different status of “capacity”’ for each determinant. However, the pretesting showed that this was not a user-friendly way for the assessors to score or rate their organization. There was confusion with the “exclusivity” of the description for that particular stage/score. To simplify the assessment, the checklist can provide the assessor with the option of identifying what subelement is present for each determinant. As with the McKinsey Capacity Assessment Grid, the Adaptive Capacity Assessment Checklist is not intended to be a scientific tool. There is no provision for determining sensitivity or specificity. The intention of the tool is to provide a general indication of the organization’s baseline capacity level to manage the potential growing incidence of the climate-sensitive diseases under study. The tool is also hoped to identify potential areas for improvement with the scores interpreted in the context of the organization’s development stage.

Each ‘yes‘ response corresponds to one point. The total raw score for each determinant is multiplied by its assigned weight. Subtotal scores are then added to make the grand total. The resulting figure is an estimation of the sector‘s capacity to adapt to the climate change effects on malaria, dengue, typhoid, cholera and schistosomiasis.

Interpretation of scores Difference in the range of scores It is recommended to have three levels of capacity only as having more would somehow confuse the lines between each level as seen during the pretesting of the initial tool which had five levels of capacity. The range of scores is computed by dividing the total weighted score for each checklist by three and using the resulting quotient as the interval. As stated in the preceding sub-section, the tool is intended more for “level setting”— to give a general indication of the level of capacity of the organization or health sector. It is meant to be descriptive as a quantitative method is difficult to arrive at and would not yield an exact outcome. The resulting scores or their significance cannot be taken on their own merit. These will be analyzed further in the context of the current stage of development of the health sector under study as seen in the other parameters for adaptive capacity that were not included in the checklist. Sample filled up checklist and interpretation is shown on the next page (Table 8.2).

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Table 8.2. A sample filled up checklist and interpretation Disease

Level of adaptive capacity

Significance • •

Dengue

Medium • •

Malaria

The health system is lacking in two of the three key areas of adaptive capacity. There is little, if any, of the parameters of Technology, Information and Skills, and Institution, inherent or in place within the organization. There are also no policy and regulations, as well as partnership mechanisms, in support of prevention and control of the disease.

The health system is well equipped to respond to the proliferation of the disease. The organization has the ability to prevent transmission of the disease. Gaps identified are in the area of Institution where there is no existing policy issuances or regulations pertaining to prevention and control of typhoid or food/ water-borne diseases. There is also no established mechanism for private-public partnership in relation to disease control.

Low

• Typhoid

Medium

• Cholera

Medium

• • Schistosomiasis

The health system is equipped with the basic features within the three key areas of Technology, Information and Skills, and Institution. Notable are gaps in technology with the lack of provision diagnostic equipment by the local government. There is also no computerized information system nor trained local staff for disease surveillance. Although the technology and skills are available through the CHD, there is no local capacity to undertake disease notification and surveillance. This information section was found wanting for all the categories. There is also no policy issuances in support of dengue control and prevention, not even for continued surveillance.

High •

The health system is equipped with the basic features within the three key areas of Technology, Information and Skills, and Institution. There are also no policy and regulations, as well as partnership mechanisms, in support of prevention and control of the disease. The health system is well equipped to respond to the proliferation of the disease. The organization has the ability to prevent transmission of the disease. There is no technology for confirmatory diagnosis of the disease. The diagnosis is usually made on the basis of clinical history and physical examination. Other gaps include absence of policy and regulations, and mechanisms for inter-sectoral collaboration for the prevention and control of the disease.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 8 RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: HEALTH SECTOR

Validation This portion will deal with a feedback loop that will look at holding a second Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with the identified participants for the qualitative analysis portion and come back to them to ask if their responses are what they originally offered. It would be good to consider that the groupings should have the same personnel available for the FGDs in order that they will be familiar with the parameters and questionnaire as well as the process involved.

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Module

9

Climate-Smart Planning and Management Volume 2 Module 9: Cross-sectoral Integration

This module will explore cross-sector links between areas of vulnerability and areas of adaptation. It will address issues of maladaptive strategies between sectors to highlight the importance of integration of the results of sectoral V&A assessments.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 9 CROSS-SECTORAL INTEGRATION

Module

9

Cross-sectoral integration Module objectives Introduce the two types of integration: Cross-sector and Multi-sector Recommendations on the integration of the outputs of the sectors covered in Modules 4-8

To produce a comprehensive vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment, the individual sectoral data collected by the Modules 4-8 on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments, need to be viewed in a holistic and coordinated approach for the development and implementation of adaptation options/strategies.30 This approach also needs to be incorporated when prioritizing adaptation options so that an adaptation measure selected by one sector does not create a negative impact on another sector e.g., promoting aquaculture as a way to ensure food security (agriculture) does not further deplete coastal resources (fish fry/stock from the sea; mangroves cut to provide areas for fishponds). Impacts do not happen in isolation • Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another • Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly others just indirectly • Sometimes, a change in one sector can offset the effect of climate change in another sector In addition, integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations.

30

Taylor, S.E. in The Philippines: Enabling Activities for the Preparation of the Philippines‘ Second National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC Project, V&A Toolkit, August 2009. UNFCCC Guidelines UNDP 2005. Adaptation Policy Framework for Climate Change. Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures

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The two main types of integration: Cross-sector and multi-sector Cross-sector integration

Cross-sector integration links two or more related sectors and is a good way to initially approach integration. Various qualitative methods, including expert judgement, can be used and descriptive tables compiled to identify the links between sectors. Sample integration of climate change impacts Climate change

Drier climate

First order impacts

Water supply

Vegetation cover; standing water

Second order impacts

Response/ feedbacks

Agricultural production

Increased demand for water for irrigation, potentially further reducing water supplies

Human health

Wetter condition increase potential for disease transmission. One possible response is increased use of pesticides, which has the potential to harm natural vegetation.

Another way to display qualitative results are shown in Figures 9.1 and 9.2 for a more visual representation.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 9 CROSS-SECTORAL INTEGRATION

Figure 9.1. Philippine vulnerabilities cross-sector integration Source: Adapted from Taylor, S.E. 2000

Figure 9.2. Philippine adaptation measures cross-sector integration Source: Adapted from Taylor, S.E. 2000

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Multi-sector integration

Multi-sector integration is concerned with a much broader scale, generally an entire economy or system. The aim is to understand how a society as a whole may be affected by climate change. Integrated assessment methods and economic models can be used in this type of approach. To be effectively applied, multi-sector integrations need to be as comprehensive as possible, i.e. covering as many affected sectors, regions and populations as possible. In addition, it is helpful, although not necessary, that a common indicator be used, such as the number of people affected or monetary impact, which allows for direct comparison of magnitude and summing of impacts across sectors. There are both relatively simple and more complex methods for quantitatively combining results across many sectors, regions or affected groups. Simple quantitative integration involves listing of impacts using a common indicator, often monetary units. This is particularly appropriate for economic sectors because they place a monetary value on goods and services. Results from non-economic sectors, such as human health or biodiversity, can be expressed in monetary terms, but because these sectors are not market sectors (they are not typically traded in markets), such monetary valuations can be complicated to develop, involve much uncertainty and may not be meaningful to all potential users of results. A much more complex method is to apply macroeconomic models. Such models have been used to examine integrated impacts of climate change on whole countries. The advantage of applying these models is that they can identify how costs of damages from or adaptation to climate change can reverberate throughout a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s economy. A disadvantage is that models must be built for each application. These can be complicated and expensive to undertake.


VOLUME 2 MODULE 9 CROSS-SECTORAL INTEGRATION

Recommendations

At a minimum, integration should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts. For the integration of the outputs of the sectors covered in Modules 4-8, the indicators with weighted rankings will be utilized as described below:

Vulnerability and adaptation cross-sector integration

All the indicators utilized above with weighted criteria will be gathered into one document. The indicators will be sorted into the categories of: â&#x20AC;˘ Exposure (Disaster Risk Assessment, Agriculture, Coastal and Marine, & Health) â&#x20AC;˘ Sensitivity (Socio-economic, Agriculture, Coastal and Marine, & Health) â&#x20AC;˘ Adaptive Capacity (Socio-economic, Agriculture, Coastal and Marine, & Health) The totals of each weighted criteria will be re-calculated to produce a cross-sectoral vulnerability index.

Prioritization of adaptation options

It is important to design integrated adaptation strategies that sufficiently identify tradeoffs, synergies and conflicts among key sectors. The V&A assessment identifies existing vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies together with potential additional vulnerabilities and strategies to cope (adaptation measures). The previous section deals with integrating these strategies across sectors to assist in producing a shortlist, i.e. eliminating from the list those that have adverse impacts in other sectors. Ranking of vulnerabilities can also help to prioritize adaptation measures.

It is especially important to involve all stakeholders including policy makers in this process to not only reduce conflict but also to gain maximum information in prioritizing local issues. Closely examine how issues encountered in the sector could also affect the other sectors. For example, water quality and water quantity are seen to impact on the other sectors, so that adaptation measures would have to be assessed further through an integrated assessment. Constraints and barriers to implementation of adaptation measures need to be carefully studied as these will affect activities related to technology transfer and also in ensuring the enhancement of adaptive capacities and increasing the resiliency of

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the sector. One possible source of constraints to implementation is the enabling policy environment, like existing subsidies/support being provided to some agricultural inputs. It is even possible that some agricultural policies currently implemented run counter to the objectives of enhancing resiliency and adaptive capacities of both the agricultural workers and the production areas. Suggested adaptation measures can be prioritized by using a multi-criteria analysis. An adaptation decision matrix could be designed similar to what is presented in Table 9.1, a matrix for prioritizing adaptation options. Instructions List down all the adaptation options and rate each of the options in terms of the criteria. Ratings are according to metrics below: 1 Very low 2 Low 3 Medium 4 High 5 Very high Rank from highest to lowest. The stakeholders are then directed to initiate the planning process for the highest-ranked adaptation strategies for implementation (Refer to Volume 3, Module 10).

Table 9.1. Matrix for prioritizing adaptation options Adaptation options

Cost

Effectiveness

Ease of implementation

Acceptability to stakeholders

Add-on Institutional benefits capacity

Adequate for current climate

Adequate for future climate

A Publication by the Climate Change Commission of the Philippines and the Green Growth Institute  
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