Business Reporter: UK2030 - October 2017 by Lyonsdown

INFORMATION NATION We have the big data – learning to use it is the big challenge

AUTOMATING THE FUTURE By 2030, robots could be helping us with the laundry

GOING NUCLEAR Tom Greatrex, CEO of the NIA, on why nuclear energy could help the UK combat climate change

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AWARD-WINNING BUSINESS JOURNALISM • OCTOBER 2017

Why we’ll be sharing everything in 2030 SPECIAL REPORT: UK2030 Rachel Botsman’s TED Talks have been watched by 3.5 million people. We speak to her about whether we should trust technology in 2030

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OO B N AI T I R G B N I P HEL S I OW R H T EA H G DIN N A EXP

P X E

S T R

HUGHES CRAFT DISTILLERY, ONE OF THE MANY BUSINESSES ACROSS THE UK THAT SUPPORT HEATHROW EXPANSION

Heathrow is Britain’s biggest port by value for global markets outside the EU and Switzerland, handling over 30% of the UK’s exports. Expansion will double our cargo capacity and create new domestic and international trading routes, helping more businesses across Britain reach out and trade with the world. Heathrow expansion is part of the plan to strengthen Britain’s future. That’s why we are getting on with delivering Britain’s new runway.

Building for the future TRADE INFO IS BY VALUE FOR 2016, EXCLUDES EXPORTS TO EU AND SWITZERLAND AND SOURCED FROM uktradeinfo.com FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT: www.heathrow.com/exports

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We have the big data – but learning to use it will be the big challenge of 2030 To prosper in an era of total information needs strong and imaginative leadership – Joanne Frearson talks to entrepreneur Andy Hobsbawm about what to expect in 2030

Y 2030 data gathered in the UK through the Internet of Things (IoT) will help companies gain a better understanding of their business and projects, as well as make cities smarter and more energy efficient. “Companies that will really thrive will be the ones that look most like the ones that are succeeding today,” says Andy Hobsbawm, founder of EVRYTHNG, at a Design & Disruptive Technologies event in London. “If you look at Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix and Uber, they share this ability to have a complete instrumentation of absolutely everything.” By using IoT data, he points out, companies will be able to gain a better understanding of what happens in their business. They will be able to examine how materials are sourced, manufactured, distributed and where products are stocked, sold and disposed of, giving them a complete 100 per cent view of the customer. “Data processing and analytics technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and other forms of cloud intelligence will allow businesses to operate in that way,” he says. According to Hobsbawm, everything brought to market by 2030 will have AI or machine-learning data-analytical techniques applied, to help companies understand what products and services they should bring out next. He also thinks that by 2030 we will be in a far different environment because of climate change, and companies will be using IoT data to help reduce our energy needs. “Climate change will be the biggest existential force which is going to shape business,” he says. “A low-carbon economy is going to cause enormous pressure, which ties back to IoT in the sense that smartness and intelligence is a way of creating much greater efficiencies.” For example, sensors will be able to determine what level of lighting or airconditioning you need in a room, enabling commercial enterprises to be able to use energy much more efficiently. “The fact that you can apply sensors and chips to

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gather information, control objects and generate data from objects means that you can write an algorithm that says, [for example] I want to look at the average temperature of every room in these 5,000 hotel rooms,” adds Hobsbawm. “If you can automatically adjust temperatures down it can save a huge amount of energy.” In other areas, transport can also be co-ordinated much more efficiently from a logistical and supply chain point of view. Hobsbawm says: “One of the things that is interesting about modern transportation is that it is so interconnected – there are all sorts of dependencies. You notice that when you suddenly have a flight delay, that impacts the car pick up, the hotel reservation or a friend that is meeting you – all these different elements, because we live in this hugely connected real-time world.” IoT brings the ability to automate the exchange of data between those things. If one event happens you can co-ordinate the other event. But moving into 2030, Hobsbawm believes the challenges businesses will face in getting to this stage will be skills. He says: “If you want to get specific right now I would say things like Brexit are unimaginably disastrous for our future,

because what you are doing is suddenly potentially cutting off the enormous access to qualified skills and labour to realise that vision. “People involved in technology are throwing up their hands in despair [at] this idea that you would suddenly make it harder to get access to the talent and skills that you need to build up these services. “T hat is one example of crazy political policy that has real implications. Generally there is a wider question of education. Do we have the right education programmes to be able to teach the [workforce of the] next generation to know what to do in that world and be able to take us forward?” But one way or another, the UK will be a very different place by 2030, with technologies such as IoT data, AI and machine learning changing how businesses manage projects, view their customers and make products, while cities will become smarter and more energy efficient. But the challenges still lie ahead, and Hobsbawm would like to see genuine political leadership emerge in the UK by 2030, to move things forward and meet the challenges of the coming decades.

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Helping to future-proof your workforce 69% The percentage of employers who think that IIP produces a competitive edge

HERE HAVE always been good reasons to go all-out for excellence in the way we lead, support and manage people. Looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, it seems Investors in People may have a more important role than ever in supporting organisations that are facing u ncer ta i n t i mes a nd new challenges.

A growing IIP community Investors in People (IIP) is a community interest company, founded in 1991. It aligns itself with motivated and forward-thinking organisations, building dynamic relationships that help them to evolve their talent and develop a supportive and engaging people management strategy. Members of the IIP community understand that it’s people that make the difference. IIP is proud to display its accreditation – recognised across 78 countries – and is a vocal advocate of what it represents.

Setting the standard The link between organisational p e r f or m a n c e a n d p e ople m a n age me nt pr ac t ice s i s undeniable. Few would question

the wisdom of putting people first in order to secure the best levels of productivity and improvement. Yet it i sn’t a lway s easy to assess the strength of leadership and company culture, or identify how best to move forward. Enter the Investors in People (IIP) Standard, a straightforward framework to benchmark performance and help create effective results with easy-to-use tools. Not simply a one-off review, it’s an exciting journey with new perspectives and clear milestones along the way.

Stop firefighting, start leading 60K is an energetic company focused on international contact centres, working hard to enhance its reputation in the market as a preferred supplier and employer. CEO Jon Gladwish believes everyone has an equally important part to play in the success of an organisation, whether it’s the CEO or the cleaner, and that everyone should be treated with politeness and respect. Following a period of rapid expansion, Gladwish understood

that the way his organisation worked had to change if it was to achieve its goals. The reactive nature of the business meant it had been working in an ad hoc manner. It needed to transition to a more focused and organised approach. 60K then began its exciting journey with Investors in People. During 60K’s IIP journey indepth conversations took place at every level of the business, from CEO through to the newest recruits, creating a “gap-analysis” to help the company understand where its greatest gains were in order to improve performance. 60K has now been awarded IIP Silver accreditation, no mean feat for a company that has been growing rapidly in two sites and recruiting hundreds of new employees. Gladwish describes the impact of their IIP journey as as sensational. Business operations improved, staff attrition fell, revenue grew by 58 per cent and EBITDA increased fourfold. Now 60K truly fulfils its motto as “the place where all the happy people work”.

The bottom line When you pause to consider that the average cost of replacing a

“It’s not about processes, policies or paperwork – just easy-to-understand criteria that form a roadmap for excellence in any industry.” – Paul Devoy, CEO, Investors in People

skilled worker is typically 150 per cent of their salary, and that firms with engaged employees enjoy around 40 per cent less turnover of staff, the issue of talent retention takes on even greater significance. It seems that companies with engaged employees also benefit from around two and a half times more revenue than comparable businesses, so improvements in this area can have a big impact on the bottom line.

organisation. “A truly innovative company is one that looks beyond its financial performance,” she says. “We pride ourselves on the investment we have made in our team over the past few years, achieving Investors in People Gold accreditation. Our success would not be possible without having motivated, engaged and rewarded employees delivering awardw i n n i ng projec t s for ou r clients.” Paul Devoy, CEO at Investors in People, comments: “employing expectation as a leadership tool is the most effective way of motivating your team to give their best”, it is his belief that expectation, honesty and inspiration are funda menta l to good people management. “Communicating that you see potential,” he adds. “Asking people to consistently deliver at that level is a way of showing both appreciation for their job function, and respect for their talent.”

Inspire your talent Helen Seaman, managing director at award-winning creative agency Rapiergroup, sums up nicely, highlighting how the IIP journey can positively inf luence an

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Why the UK could dominate the age of automation Silicon Valley is still the centre of tech innovation – but with a clearer direction, the country that started the first industrial revolution could be at the vanguard of the next. Joanne Frearson talks to two innovators about how that could happen

VER THE next decade in the UK, driverless cars could be transporting us to work, robots washing and drying our clothes and wastemanagement trucks picking up our rubbish on demand. “By 2030 every car will be self-driving,” believes Dr John Bates, CEO of Testplant and author of Thingalytics. “This is going to have a lot of implications for a lot of systems, not just technological, but also ethical.” For example, if a person suddenly steps out in front of a car, it may not be possible for a human driver to stop before hitting them. But when the car is being driven by an AI, sub-micro second decision-making is possible. If someone jumps out in front of the car, there is also an ethical dimension to the course of action to take. “Should all roadways be covered so no-one can even walk across them?” asks Dr Bates. “Should [the AI] make the decision of always protecting the driver or a l w ay s p r o te c t i n g t h e pedestrian?” By 2030, Dr Bates – who has been listed as one of the “Tech 50” most influential technologists by Institutional Investor magazine – points out there will be a whole new set of legislation that is introduced, so governments can ensure driverless cars are safe. They will also have to meet a set of certification standards. Driverless cars will obviously be a huge change to the way we drive, but Bates thinks they will also affect the way we live, work and even interact with each other. “It completely changes my possible commute,” he says. “I can have my car pick up my CTO, and we can have a meeting somewhere. We don’t need to go anywhere – we are already in the office. Maybe there will be people just driving around in their office all the time. We could have these enormous people-movers, around which are mobile offices, clogging up the roadways of the UK. Think of the implications.” Meanwhile, according to Antony Edwards, CTO of software testing firm Testplant, the introduction of driverless cars could also disrupt the way car ownership

is viewed, as people no longer use cars as we do today. “Once you don’t get any joy from driving – because you are not driving – [a car] just becomes a commodity,” Edwards says. “Why would you bother owning it? Everything starts to become a service a lot more.” Car manufacturers have already begun to start to change their business models to become more service-oriented. They now fit sensors in vehicles that can give feedback on how someone is drivi n g. A n d i n s t e a d o f j u s t manufacturers of vehicles, car companies are also becoming big data analytics providers. “Suddenly you know all the telemetry about that vehicle,” says Edwards. “The tyres are talking [via] wireless, [telling you that] if you pump up this tyre you can save 10p a mile on fuel.” Because they understand how you drive because of the data their products feed back to them, car companies could go down the road of leasing parts – such as tyres for example – as a service, rather than selling them. By 2030, as Edwards points out, car ownership itself might be a thing of the distant past. Over the next 10 years it is likely that most of the major cities in the UK will also be using to data to become smarter via the internet of things (IoT). “There will be smart lighting, smart waste management, all interacting with each other,” says Dr Bates.

According to Edwards, one of the first smart city projects local authorities will take up is waste management. “It is one where you can get massive savings,” he says. “You have tags in your bin and it tells you if they are full or not. Around 50 per cent of the trips trucks do are wasted.” He explains that by tagging rubbish the amount of potential waste could be halved. Edwards thinks it could encourage some councils to take more responsibility for the project management of IT infrastructure. Dr Dr Bates, meanwhile, points to personal robotics as being the next big thing by 2030: we’ll have “robots in the home and robots in the cities,” he says. He points out that one of the mundane chores we still have to do in person is filling and emptying the washing machine and dryer, as it is a difficult process to automate. “By 2030 we will have personal home automation that can load the washing machine and dryer,” Dr Dr Bates says. “In smart cities you are going to see some of this as well. You are going to see retailers have shelf-stacking robots – they are already starting to come in.” However, Dr Bates does not think it will be easy getting to this stage by 2030, with the number one challenge being the UK’s attitude to business. “The UK is producing some of the best and most innovative people in the world, but yet how many billiondollar technology companies come

out of the UK? Autonomy, Arm, Sage – that is about it,” he says. “But if you drive around the San Francisco Bay area, there is one on every street corner. There is something going w rong somewhere.” Despite the cynicism, Dr Bates has not given up hope – one of the reasons why he moved back was because he thinks the UK has the chance to dominate smart industries by 2030. “The industrial revolution started in Britain,” Dr Bates says. “This country invented Silicon Valley – now we have lost it. How do we get that back? That is the biggest problem to me. We should lead the way in smart cities. We can do it. We just have to have the right attitude. “This is an old country – the plumbing does not work, the sewers were built in the Victorian era. This is an opportunity because maybe the UK can augment these systems with smart sensors to detect problems and do predictive maintenance before it gets critical. We can augment our cities with technology to make them absolutely cutting edge.” Technology will be disrupting the way we live, work and potentially own things by 2030. And while some of the buildings, infrastructure and systems in the UK may be past their sell-by date, over the next decade many opportunities await – not least the tantalising prospect of finally h av i ng a r ob ot to do t he laundry…

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How going nuclear could be the answer to 2030’s increasing energy demands Rahmon Agbaje talks to the Nuclear Industry Association’s Tom Greatrex about why nuclear power is a more viable – and safer – energy source than its reputation might suggest

NERGY IS at the heart of everything we do in life. Whether it’s heating our homes, cooking our favourite meals or braving the underground for our journeys into work, the UK has an everincreasing demand for energy. But with climate change being the biggest existential threat facing our planet, the UK government has been setting ambitious targets to reduce emissions by 57 per cent by 2030. Alternatives such as wind, solar and renewable energy are all being used to help tackle the problem – but the technology that many believe can most quickly combat climate change is nuclear. “We’re in a situation in the UK where between 2010 and 2030, two-thirds of power stations will come to the end of their lives and they will need to be replaced,” Tom Greatrex, chief executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, tells Business Reporter. “And they need to be replaced in a way that is as low carbon emitting as possible, that ensures that you have reliable, secure, readily available electricity. “At the same time, we are in a situation where the distinction between energy and electricity is diminishing because we are gradually electrifying transport. “There is more demand for electricity and less demand for other fuels. That is good for the environment, because you can do that in a low-carbon way. It also means there is a need for significant new infrastructure to be built in the country to generate electricity.” Having returned from giving a conference talk about small modular nuclear reactors, Greatrex – the former Labour shadow energy minister – explains that electricity will be generated from a number of different sources, including wind, solar and storage technology. However, he thinks the only way to reduce carbon emissions quickly on a large scale is through nuclear energy. Currently, nuclear power accounts for more than a fifth of electricity generated in the UK, but Greatrex explains to meet our future energy demand more infrastructure needs to be built. Hinkley will

“Between 2010 and 2030 two thirds of power stations will come to the end of their lives and need to be replaced” – Tom Greatrex, Nuclear Industry Association

Nuclear energy is set to boom as the country’s older power stations are gradually taken out of service over the next 15 years; Below: Tom Greatrex

be the first, but there will be other large-scale nuclear projects, potentially in North Wales and Cumbria, Suffolk and Gloucester, on sites that have already been determined. Greatrex believes these projects will also bring employment benefits for their local communities. He says: “Hinkley Point C, in the early stages of construction, has about 2,000 people on site now and has had a really significant economic impact in that part of Somerset, not just with the big companies but engaging local supply chains on a whole range of different things, not just in construction but in support of the construction. “That model is likely to be replicated as the basis for the way other projects will go forward as well. The scale of these undertakings is really significant. It has a direct economic benefit to those areas.” Building a nuclear power plant is no simple task, however – and concerns

are looming over how the UK’s preparations to leave the European Union will affect the country’s resurgent nuclear power industry. One issue that remains a sticking point is the UK’s position in the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). Although the UK government has stated its intention to leave Euratom, what is not clear is whether the procedures and agreements that presently fall under Euratom will be replicated. Says Greatrex: “The danger of not having those in place presents a significant disruptive effective on the nuclear industry.” The nuclear industry, he explains, has always been very international in its character and a lot of the components which make up a power plant are traded across borders. A lot of skilled personnel also work between different sites across Europe and exchange information. All of those things currently happen because of Euratom.

“We need to have enough time to replicate all of Euratom prior leaving or we risk causing disruption to just about everything.” Another concern about increased nuclear technology in the UK is the risk of accidents which can have devastating and long-lasting consequences because nuclear materials are so harmful, as demonstrated by the 1986 Chernobyl incident. Greatrex points out that techniques of handling nuclear materials are far more sophisticated now, and will continue to develop. Furthermore, the UK has a strong record when it comes to nuclear care – Br it a i n ha s b een op erat i ng a nd decommissioning nuclear power stations for over five decades with no major accidents, thanks to robust regulatory and safety procedures. “We’ve learned a lot from the past in the way in which we approach these things at the moment, and that’s something we’re widely regarded for and in some cases envied for around the world,” says Greatrex. Other fears expounded by critics of nuclear power – particularly in the age of Kim Jong-un’s North Korea and building tensions surrounding nuclear weapons between North Korea, Japan and the United States – is the close connection between nuclear reactor technology and nuclear weapons technology. However, Greatrex has a different view and expresses his trust in the international community and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty which closely monitors the development of nuclear weapons in every country. He says: ‘’The overall number of nuclear warheads has decreased and the civil nuclear industry is not the same as the defence industry. Our focus is being able to provide the low-carbon power the world is going to need, that will help tackle climate change and increase energy security – which will often be the issue at the root of international conflict. “The opportunity nuclear provides will encourage a more peaceful world as a result of being able to have the low-carbon mix which ensures the availability of electricity and energy that people need to be able to power their houses, businesses and public services.” As the UK moves towards 2030, its reliance on nuclear energy is set to rise. The sight of large nuclear power plants in the UK will become increasingly common – and with any luck, more removed from the cartoon stereotype of Homer Simpson’s feckless nuclear-rod-losing employee of Mr Burns’ nuclear power station in The Simpsons.

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Why the future robotic workforce should be working alongside humans, not replacing them

HE SKILLS needed to undertake successful projects in the workplace are likely to be a lot different by 2030, as automation, artificial intelligence, machine learning and robots change the way we work, according to a new report. The report, undertaken by Pearson, Nesta and the Oxford Martin School and entitled The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030, found that one in five workers were in occupations that face a high likelihood of decline and only one in 10 people was highly likely to experience a rise in demand for their skills. Hasan Bakhshi, executive director of creative economy and data analytics at Nesta, said: “While there is no shortage of research assessing the impacts of automation on individual occupations, there is far less that focuses on skills, and even less so that has actionable insights for stakeholders in areas like job redesign and learning priorities. The future of work for most people is not inevitable.” In the UK, the occupations forecast to most likely experience a rise in employment were associated with education, healthcare

and wider public-sector occupations. Creative, digital, design, and engineering occupations were also found to have bright outlooks, with architecture and green occupations to benefit from greater urbanisation and the need to build a more sustainable environment. However, a decline in employment was forecast in occupations related to transport and traditional manufacturing. The report found that projects being managed in manufacturing production were turning towards technology to improve productivity and were predicted to see a fall in workforce share. Philippe Schneider, researcher and coauthor of the report, said: “Jobs are the cornerstone of our social and economic lives. Today many are concerned that jobs face a period of sustained disruption – not only as a result of automation but also globalisation, demographic and environmental change and political uncertainty. “Thinking systematically about these trends cannot give conclusive answers on what is around the corner, but it can provide clues and challenge imaginations as we

“The future of work is brighter than conventional wisdom suggests. It is not going to be human versus machine, but rather human and machine” – John Fallon, Pearson

The future of franchising: delivering a difference I 30 F NOTHING else, recent documentary The Founder – which chronicles the career of Ray Kroc, who turned McDonald’s from a local burger restaurant into arguably the world’s most iconic global brand – is destined to create interest in the franchising phenomenon. The franchising sector in the UK employs around 620,000 people and 97 per cent of these franchises are profitable. The average person spends 90,000 hours at work over their lifetime and 80 per cent of people are dissatisfied with their jobs. The franchise business model gives anyone with entrepreneurial spirit an opportunity to become their own boss, and by using their own personality and creativity they can lead the fulfilled life they always dreamed of – after all, we’ve all experienced that “I can do that better” or “if only I’d done that” feeling. But why franchising? The main answer is that you’re starting a new business from scratch, and becoming your own boss. Statistics indicate that 80 per cent of start-up businesses fail in the first year, and of those that survive 80 per cent fail after five years. But before you go back to being dissatisfied with your job and

Year-on-year growth in outdoor leisure retailing in the UK

clocking up more of those 90,000 hours of working for “the Man”, we’d ask you to consider our franchise proposition. As Britons strive to use their garden space to create an outdoor living experience, the UK leisure market is now worth £115billion. There has been a 30 per cent growth of swim spas and hot tub sales over recent years, with more than 10 per cent of UK households owning a hot tub. Our franchise has already overcome the pitfalls of running a business from start-up and, having over 30 years’ experience in one of the most exciting, profitable and growing retail sectors in the UK, Award Leisure Franchise offers an

incredible opportunity in retailing highdemand luxury outdoor leisure products to the UK leisure market. Award Leisure Franchise invites entrepreneurs to replicate our successful and profitable business strategy, which will make you money – and you’ll certainly enjoy doing it! We already have more than 6,000 satisfied customers nationwide and aim to dominate the luxury outdoor leisure market by 2021 with 50 franchise retailers. Successful Award Leisure Franchisees showcase an extensive product range of exciting, unique and exclusive products in prestigious showrooms, offering wellness

design policies to improve the adaptability and employability of our workforces.” The study showed strong social skills would be the key to success as demand for soft skills unique to humans rose. These included social perceptiveness, active learning, active listening, judgment and decision making. In addition, cognitive skills such as fluency of ideas, originality and oral expression were forecast to increase in demand – whereas physical abilities, such as stamina and depth perception, were forecast to decline as technology takes over. “The future of work is brighter than conventional wisdom suggests – it is not going to be human versus machine, but rather human and machine,” said John Fallon, CEO of Pearson. “It is clear that technology is changing the global economy and labour markets, but we still retain the ability to control our destiny. We must reevaluate the skills people will need for a digital future, and update our education systems to ensure teachers have the right tools to help students succeed in the workforce of tomorrow.”

and outdoor luxury. The role of an Award Leisure Franchise owner is stimulating, enjoyable and highly rewarding, delivering attractive profit margins on luxury hot tubs, gazebos, cabins, pizza ovens, saunas and swim spas, alongside service contracts, installation, and maintenance. Award Leisure is unlike any of its competition as it provides a one-stop luxury, outdoor leisure shopping experience. With our shared knowledge, experience and expertise franchisees can deliver exceptional products and after-service to satisfy every question and requirement of potential customers. But mostly, Award Leisure is more than a hot tub retailer – our product range is carefully selected to provide a broad range of high-quality outdoor leisure lifestyle products. If you have sales or management background, the ability to network, to engage and develop strong business relationships, as well as having the drive and passion to grow the business in your chosen territory, you would be ideally suited to running an Award Leisure franchise. INDUSTRY VIEW

www.awardleisurefranchise.co.uk

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Staying human in the age of machines Award-winning author and trust expert Rachel Botsman talks to Business Reporter about how we need to keep hold of our human qualities if we are to make the most of the coming age of technology SPECIAL REPORT JOANNE FREARSON

“We need to be asking very tough questions. This is where the pendulum has swung – onto technology companies. The questions we need to ask are not technical, they are ethical”

ENOWNED FOR her TED talks on collaborative consumption and trust, and viewed by more than 3.5 million people, Rachel Botsman believes we are at a tipping point of social transformation. Her new book, Who Can You Trust? How Technology Brought Us Together And Why It Could Drive Us Apart, talks about a new world order emerging. By 2030, she thinks technology will rewrite the way we do things and who we trust in business. “One of the most interesting things [going into 2030 in the UK] will be when we decide to trust an artificial intelligence machine over a human to make decisions that a human would make,” she tells Business Reporter over the phone from a conference in Helsinki, where she has just delivered a presentation. “The one we keep thinking about is self-driving cars – that is a really good example, where it feels very risky to trust a machine over a human being,” she continues. “But I think by 2030 we could be at a place where we ask, do we trust human drivers?” The assumption that humans are automatically better at certain things than robots, she believes, is often a misguided one. “There is a tendency to look at technology and look at automation and say it is all bad, but human beings are not particular good drivers and there are places where trust and technology will really improve our daily lives,” she says. There could come a time over the next decade, she explains, where we might think we are interacting with a human doctor, financial adviser or therapist when they are really a bot or a machine. “If you think about our basic needs, a lot of areas in our lives – banking, food, products, the way we move from A to B – we will outsource our trust to an algorithm and machine [to oversee].”

The main challenges she expects by 2030 will come in the form of “understanding the intentions and ethics of algorithms that are visible to us. It is the way those machines make decisions. The average human being cannot understand how they are being programmed. We have to trust the intention of people who understand these algorithms. “We need to be asking very tough questions,” she explains. “This is where the pendulum has swung – on to technology companies. The questions we need to ask them are not technical, they are ethical. We have not figured out the ethical implications of this.” Even so, Botsman believes it will be the ethical companies that admit that they don’t understand the unintended consequences who will be the winners in the long run. Although there could be some confusion between what is a machine and what is human, Botsman does not think AI will be able to replace everything. Just as companies will be required to look at the ethical consequences of AI systems on humans to be the winners, they will also be required to inject some kind of “human-ness” into experiences. As well as the ethical dilemma the preponderance of AI will create, as technology progresses over the next decade Botsman expects it will shift peoples’ trust away from corporates and on to individuals. “For a long period in history we h ave pl ac e d ou r t r u s t i n

The rise of microtransactions will be enabled – and overseen – by the use of Blockchain technology, Botsman believes

governments, banks, lawyers and corporate brands,” she points out. “What technology does is pull it away from the top and distributes it through networks and systems and marketplaces. “We are heading into this age where people will trust individuals more that institutions – whether that is influence over what music they should listen, to or movies they should watch. The shift is only going to become more and more amplified.” Botsman believes that what we now call the “sharing economy” will by 2030 have become just a way of doing business. “The next stage is individuals realising that all around them in their own lives they create excess capacity that they could monetise value from […] and be able to share in real time with one another,” she says. “At the moment it is very much about companies aggregating these assets.” According to Botsman the technology that will enable these transformations will be blockchain. As blockchain works through shared digital ledger technology, which records a transaction publically, people will be able to transfer assets and make micro-payments without the need for a trusted third party to oversee the transaction. This bypasses the need to use a platform powered by a huge corporate entity to buy something, allowing people to simply sell what they don’t need – such as minutes on a phone – using blockchain. People will also be able to use the blockchain to prove authenticity of an object – as each transaction is recorded visibly a history of an item is built up and its legitimacy verified. She believes this will have huge implications in the area of high-end goods – “things like artworks, fine wines, diamonds or jewellery, where you need the digital identity

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When driverless cars become more prevalent, Botsman believes, we will wonder why we ever trusted humans to drive

Rachel Botsman at the launch of her first book, What’s Mine Is Yours (co-written with Roo Rogers) in 2011; right: giving a TED talk in Edinburgh in 2012

of something and it is largely dependent on paper”. As technology makes individuals more visible online, people will start to obtain trust and reputation scores, similar to the credit scores we have today. Says Botsman: “The way we are assessed and the way someone might judge how we might behave in the future will be more and more dependent on these trust scores. We will have a reputation score – a credit score will seem like a relic of the past. All this data will feed from what we buy and how we behave in different kind of communities and that will inform our ability to get a loan, health insurance… it will help predict our future behaviour.” But there is a danger. “There are many dark implications from that,” Bostman warns. “What we don’t want is one big popularity contest where everyone is rating one another and I might unfriend someone else because they are bringing my score down. [There’s a danger of] that constant society surveillance, where it is gamified obedience.” Another problem the technology could create is that of echo chambers and filter bubbles. “Technology naturally organises people into groups that are similar or familiar to them,” Botsman says. “What we need to do

“We are heading into this age where people will trust individuals more than institutions”

is break that and actually have interactions and trust people that on the s u r f ac e s e e m l i ke t he y a r e untrustworthy.” “If we can actually use these networks to discover new people to trust, what it could do for diversity, inclusion and collaboration would be phenomenal – actually looking at how it can overcome human bias and discrimination [rather than] just amplifying the way society is today.” In the decade ahead, technology will transform our society and change the way we collaborate and trust in business, says Botsman. But she also points out that it will be crucial not to lose sight of human values of judgment and empathy while we’re busy discovering how machines can help us do better.

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Heathrow expansion: building for the future “Heathrow expansion is a national project that will drive growth, create jobs and boost tourism across the UK”

30% In 2016, Heathrow handled more than 30 per cent of UK exports by value to global markets outside the EU and Switzerland Source: uktradeinfo.com

ITH BREXIT talks ongoing, there is no shortage of views on the UK’s position, its negotiating strategy, and, ultimately, what kind of country the UK wants to be. But across political parties, and across the Leave/Remain divide, there appears to be broad consensus on one issue – that the UK needs to maintain and strengthen its international connections. That way, Britain can ensure exports and expertise continues to flow out to the world, with tourists and investment able to flow in. This is why, one year ago, the government decided to support expansion at Heathrow, the UK’s only hub airport and soon to be Europe’s largest privately funded infrastructure project. It was a decision to equip Britain and the next generation with the infrastructure to trade with the world and to connect all of the UK to new global opportunities. Heathrow plays a unique role in the UK economy, connecting businesses of all sizes to global markets and supporting trade across the country. Nearly 76 million passengers travelled through the airport in 2016, and it handled more than 30 per cent of UK exports by value to markets outside the EU and Switzerland. From pharmaceuticals flown to Africa, components heading to the next F1 race or Scottish salmon going to China, Heathrow is Britain’s gateway for high-value, time-sensitive products being exported to foreign markets. Heathrow expansion will allow more UK trading routes with up to 40 new long-haul destinations, to make Britain the best-connected country in the world. Aside from new links to the world, national infrastructure projects such as Heathrow expansion are unique in the opportunities they create at home. Building a new rail route or runway creates jobs, growth and new opportunities. These projects can be the path to a skilled career for the engineering apprentice in Hounslow, or provide connections to new markets for the small business trader in Newcastle. As the UK prepares for a future outside the EU, building the right infrastructure and capitalising on these opportunities is vital to securing the UK’s status as a strong and connected nation. Projects such as Heathrow expansion send a signal to the world showing confidence in the UK’s future. Expansion will allow Heathrow to double its cargo capacity, create dozens of new long-haul trading routes and increase its domestic connections, giving more businesses the opportunity to trade with the world.

Connecting Britain to growth Heathrow may be in west London, but as the UK’s hub airport it supports growth and investment in every region and nation, and will

and Terminal 5, working with suppliers of all sizes from across the UK. For Terminal 2, electrical systems were made in the West Midlands. Steel came from Sheffield, the floors of the car park from Glasgow, and even the joinery and fit-out of the toilets was completed in Northern Ireland. With expansion, there’s an opportunity to go a step further and deliver a strategy centred on off-site manufacture, reducing costs, creating skilled jobs in UK regions, and building more safely and more sustainably. Heathrow has started the process to find four logistics hubs across the UK, receiving dozens of applications from interested sites covering every region and nation. It will be longlisting sites later this year. This innovative approach supports a legacy of construction excellence and skills around the country that can be exported to the world, and build up the reputation and profile of SMEs across the UK who will help to deliver Britain’s new runway. Closer to home, Heathrow is working with the local community to identify the skills tomorrow’s workforce will need. Expansion will support 10,000 apprenticeships, giving local young people the opportunity to begin a skilled career. In addition, the airport has established a Skills Taskforce, under the chairmanship of Lord Blunkett, to provide recommendations to Heathrow on using expansion to help the next generation of young people to fulfil their potential, and help the airport become a role model for diversity and social mobility.

Heathrow’s expansion will boost business and travel for Britain and the world

2017 Grimshaw Architects

deliver expansion in the national interest. That is why Heathrow is taking steps to boost domestic connectivity, supporting new routes from regions not currently linked to Heathrow, while improving and protecting current routes, to ensure the opportunities of expansion are unlocked for the whole country. The airport has recently unveiled an ambitious new nine-point plan to improve the UK’s connectivity to Heathrow, and via Heathrow, to growth markets around the world. The plan includes a £10million Route Development Fund to help establish new connections to UK airports from an expanded Heathrow, and a £10 passenger discount to domestic departing passenger charges to make domestic routes more affordable for passengers and businesses. This will allow more businesses across the country, from the smallest SME to the largest exporter, to trade on a global scale. The plan also outlines how Heathrow is supporting the right mode of transport for the right journey, with support for planned rail and improved bus and coach links to connect more communities across the country to the benefits of an expanded Heathrow and

ensure that at least 50 per cent of airport passenger journeys are made by public and sustainable transport by 2030. Better air and surface connections will supercharge the benefits of an expanded Heathrow, boosting local economies across Britain, and driving tourism and investment into each and every region – helping secure the UK’s economic future.

Securing a skills legacy for Britain’s future Projects such as Heathrow expansion, while creating jobs across the country during construction, present an opportunity to harness talent and create a legacy of skills for generations to come, helping to prepare the UK for its future outside the EU. Heathrow’s supply chain strategy for expansion is an opportunity to draw on talent and resources from across the country to build the new runway sustainably, and revolutionise the entire UK construction industry by harnessing a new approach to manufacture and assembly. Over the last decade, Heathrow has invested £11billion, including in Terminal 2

Building for the future Heathrow expansion is a national project that will drive growth, create jobs and boost tourism across the UK. It is supported by businesses, trade unions, more than 40 chambers of commerce across the country and the UK government. In the last 12 months since the government threw its weight behind Heathrow expansion, it has started the planning process for Britain’s new runway, and is preparing for public consultation on its plans. Heathrow is playing its part to make sure Britain and its businesses can be competitive in the early years of Brexit. This important era for British infrastructure is a chance to strengthen the national economy for the long term, and boost communities and businesses all over the UK. Bold decisions, such as government backing for Heathrow expansion, will help ensure a thriving, sustainable economy for future generations. That’s why Heathrow is getting on with building Britain’s new runway. INDUSTRY VIEW

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Inspector The Inspector has always wondered what it is like to own a franchise and has been doing some research in the area. As a bit of an entrepreneur he’s looking for businesses with some longevity that will still be profitable by 2030. Naturally, he was particularly impressed with the Barking Mad dog sitting franchise, launched by Lee Dancy in May 2000 in Lancashire as an alternative to kennels. The idea came about after she discovered it was hard to find a place to leave her Dalmatian puppy when she went on holiday to America. The business was an instant success and within a year Dancy was looking to expand nationally through franchising. It has continued to grow over the years and was winner of the HSBC & British Franchise Association (BFA) Franchisor of the Year in 2013. Barking Mad has also been winner of the HSBC & BFA Franchisee of the Year Micro Business in 2014 and overall BFA Franchisee of the Year winner in 2014. At the end of 2016 it also won the Growing Business Award from Real Business in association with Amazon and the CBI. Dogs are cared for by the dog sitters just like they are at home and are returned to the owners after their holiday complete with snaps and a postcard.

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BY CIARA LONG, ONLINE REPORTER

Dogberry

A Girls Guide To Project Management

www.girlsguidetopm.com

The blog offers news, opinions and information about project management events happening in the UK. It gives the female perspective on project management and has some useful How To guides about how to become a better manager. Readers can even get a free eBook, which provides useful tips and advice in starting projects.

AEC Business

aec-business.com

DrunkenPM

drunkenpm.blogspot.co.uk

According to Franchise UK there are 930 franchise brands operating in the country, with the number of business outlets now totalling more than 39,000. All sorts of businesses have been franchised. They include pet food stores, fast food joints, chimney sweeps, plumbing services, accountants, health and beauty businesses and even theatre and dance schools. Over the past five years there has been a seven per cent increase in franchise business units, with the total economic contribution of the franchising industry now standing at £13.7billion, up 2.4 per cent on last year’s figure. In total

the industry employs around 561,000 people. For those thinking they would like their business to become a franchise by 2030 the British Association of Franchising has put together some steps to help you franchise your business. Here are a couple of extracts: The association recommends the business be in area or product, which is not short-term and not geographically defined. For example, the business model must be able to be repeated across different cities and there be similar demand for the services across all geographies.

The business must also be able to show it has a profit and be a brand that has a reputation that people will want to buy into. It has to be able to provide support for the people investing in the franchise such as training, technical and PR support.

Sadly not a website about project managers sitting around and getting drunk, but a blog and podcast website which gives project managers practical advice about their industry. One of its latest podcast includes an interview with authors Michael de la Maza and Dhaval Panchal about their new book Agile Coaching: Wisdom From Practitioners.

Written by Aarni Heiskanen, who is one of the top 100 influencers in construction, the blog shares success stories, tools and techniques that can be used to increase a company’s success in the industry. Heiskanen has worked in architecture for more than a decade and likes to focus his stories on strategies, innovation and development techniques in construction.

The UK Construction Blog ukconstructionblog.co.uk

Asana (iOS, Android) Asana lets teams break

down project goals from start to finish into actionable tasks, which are then communicated and delegated to team members.

Fieldwire (iOS, Android) This app enables

construction crews to organise information, examine blueprints and communicate to others about the project without having to go back to the office.

This blog looks at everything with regards to surveying, architectural and construction. It provides readers with useful information about what they need to do their job, whether it is the latest on health and safety issues or the newest technological developments. It also has a round-up of all the latest industry news.

What’s so good about franchising?

USINESS FORMAT franchising is not only a great way to grow a business if you are a franchiser, or to start a new business with the support of a larger brand as a franchisee – franchising also contributes £15.1billion to the UK economy and 621,000 jobs nationwide. The British Franchise Association (bfa) has built a strong community over the years, who use shared best practice and collaboration to grow and promote the industry for the benefit of not just the larger brand, but also individual franchisees and the local communities they work for and with.

Membership of the bfa is voluntary for franchisers, and requires a franchise brand to undergo a rigorous accreditation process to prove their business is viable, profitable and ethical. As a standards-based organisation, not all franchises in the UK could meet the bfa’s criteria for membership. This is why bfa members who have passed this accreditation tend to be looked upon favourably by prospective franchisees. Having said that, the bfa is quick to remind you that any business venture requires significant due diligence to be completed before you sign on the dotted line.

£15.1bn The contribution of franchises to the UK economy

Through sharing experience and know-how at bfa events, franchisers are able to learn from professional advisers and each other, to help grow their knowledge for the benefit of their franchisee networks. In turn, insight gained by the franchiser is passed down to their network of franchisees to help them grow their local businesses. To find out more about franchising, visit www.thebfa.org. INDUSTRY VIEW

For more information, contact: 01235 820470 mailroom@thebfa.org

October 2017

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Business Zone

Four pages of analysis and expert comment

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The constant of change and the goal of success P ROJECT LEADERS face significant challenges these days. Not only are they asked to deliver more projects with smaller budgets in shorter timeframes, but projects are faced with more competition and more challenging bottom lines than ever. In the modern work landscape, which seems to be evolving at breakneck speeds, with changing practices and new technologies every week, not to mention stakeholders and customers continuously revising their expectations, the pressure to deliver more with less is higher than ever before. The need to be flexible and agile is a prerequisite for any project, regardless of size and sector. Change is the sole constant, and this can be interpreted in two ways: change as risk and change as evolution. The first needs to be addressed and mitigated, the second needs to be provisioned for and embraced thoughtfully. But let’s take a step back and review the current situation and what is required.

Project success is four times higher in organisations where strategy is clear to project leaders

representing the first major revision of the PRINCE2 method since 2009. With this latest update, which responds to changes in business practices over the past decade, PRINCE2 remains more relevant than ever. With the main focus constantly being on assisting professionals to deliver successful projects, the update reinforces PRINCE2’s unrivalled reputation for best practices in project management.

Change, evolution and updates In order to successfully deliver a project, it is essential to have a clear picture of what needs to be achieved, why it needs to be achieved and an estimation of the risks involved. And as people are an essential ingredient of any project, each team member needs to be well informed and ready to assume the designated role and responsibilities. As revealed in a recent PPM Benchmark survey, project success is four times higher (56 vs 14 per cent) in organisations where the business strategy is clear to project leaders, and where the project management business unit is actively aligned with the delivery of the organisation’s vision, strategy and objectives. PRINCE2, the world’s most-practiced project management method, has its philosophy deeply rooted in these needs. In fact, PRINCE2 can be traced back to the 1980s, when it was first developed to help optimise the UK government’s IT projects, with the aim to prevent failure. Since then, it has proved its value time and again; hundreds of thousands of project management professionals have since been certified and have benefited from the method to successfully deliver projects in various disciplines. PRINCE2 has contributed greatly in providing a common language across team members, combined with a highly structured yet flexible, versatile and scalable approach to project management. The method’s success lies in its compilation of proven best practices in project management, which have been shared by academics, business professionals and consultants over the years. The PRINCE2 method has been regularly updated to reflect changes in business practices. In 2017 AXELOS launched an updated PRINCE2 guidance, together with new Foundation and Practitioner examinations, which shape the PRINCE2 2017 update,

A focus on tailoring

“The 2017 PRINCE2 update has been designed with the primary aim of increasing project success rates in today’s fast-moving world”

The PRINCE2 2017 update has been designed with the primary aim of increasing project success rates in today’s fast-moving world. While the PRINCE2 fundamentals and its overall structure of principles, themes and processes remain unchanged, the update places an unprecedented emphasis on tailoring PRINCE2 to the diverse needs of organisations and project environments, including the need for an agile approach. PRINCE2, as always, obviates failure and promotes success by providing a coherent and reliable universal language for project management. At the same time, the PRINCE2 update particularly focuses on how the method’s themes and principles can be structured to suit the needs of organisations of different size, sector or type for projects of any nature or scope, more than ever before. It is now very clear how the method can be adopted to suit the needs of different organisations and project environments, covering the requirements of project managers, irrespective of their priorities or level of seniority. The “Themes” guidance has also been restructured to accommodate specific examples of tailoring and there are numerous examples with hints and tips that empower the practical application of the guidance. The chapters have been restructured with improved flow. In the new guidance, the minimum requirements for running a project using PRINCE2 are clear and have been

differentiated from the recommended approaches and techniques that can be used with it. These changes are also reflected in the qualification syllabus and exam design, in order to ensure that tailoring is explicitly tested in the PRINCE2 practitioner exam. The update to the PRINCE2 guidance will go a long way in helping businesses understand how the best practices in project management can make their plans succeed. The latest iteration of the guidance has evolved through an in-depth process of consultation with project professionals, learning about their real-life experiences. It uses these insights to make the practice of managing projects of any scope and in any environment more effective, and embraces agile approaches as well. PRINCE2 2017 certification exams are already available in English. Starting in January 2018, PRINCE2, along with all other AXELOS portfolio certifications, will be delivered through PEOPLECERT, the global leader in the assessment and certification of professional skills. PEOPLECERT is bringing major innovation to the market, including the ability to take exams and receive customer support at any time, 24/7/365. This synergy will form a stable basis for all project management professionals, allowing them to acquire the knowledge they need to thrive in the marketplace and excel at their ever-growing responsibilities, making them strategic leaders for the future of business. INDUSTRY VIEW

communication@peoplecert.org www.peoplecert.org www.axelos.com AXELOS conducted the PPM Benchmark survey among 550 project leaders. The fieldwork was conducted during April 2017. Over a 12-month period the organisations surveyed each delivered on average 66 projects, with a run rate of approximately 11.6 months. PRINCE2® is a registered trade mark of AXELOS Limited, used under permission of AXELOS Limited. All rights reserved.

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HAT WILL Britain be like in 2030? In January of this year, the government issued its eagerly anticipated Industrial Strategy Green Paper, setting out the government’s vision for a post-Brexit Britain focused on “creating the conditions where successful businesses can emerge and grow”, encouraged by an “active government” that “will build on Britain’s strategic strengths and tackle our underlying weaknesses, like low productivity”. The paper identifies 10 pillars to advance the strategy across the entire economy: science, research and innovation; skills; infrastructure; business growth and investment; procurement; trade and investment; affordable energy; sectoral policies; driving growth across the whole country; and creating the right institutions to bring together sectors and place. With the follow-up Industrial Strategy White Paper expected later this year, the government’s goals should be treated with both urgency and deliberation. According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, productivity in the UK lags significantly behind that of the rest of the G7 economies – it is almost a third lower than in the United States, France, or Germany – and is only just returning to pre-financial crisis levels. The ambitious vision set out for Britain’s future, centred on change, growth, and improvement, suggests that the public and private sectors must become increasingly adept in executing projects – the strategic initiatives that drive change. Recent research from the Project Management Institute (PMI) shows that progress is already being made in the successful execution of strategic initiatives. PMI’s 2017 Pulse Of The Profession®: Success Rates Rise: Transforming The High Cost Of Low Performance, issued in February, showed that for the first time in five years, the number of strategic initiatives meeting goals and being completed within budget increased. The research also showed that, compared with last year, there has been a 20 per cent decline in money wasted thanks to poor project performance, with organisations now wasting an average of 9.7 per cent – £97million – for every £1billion invested. Furthermore, organisations that invest in proven project management practices waste 28 times less money due to poor project performance. The determinants that went into increased project performance could help shine a light on the way forward for Britain, particularly around such key investment areas as digital initiatives and infrastructure. The UK has made significant investments in infrastructure in recent years, adding much-needed capacity to the transport system and improving journey times. Yet airport expansion and the need to invest

How agility will help Britain reach its goals for 2030 “Success will hinge on the ability to react and adapt to unexpected roadblocks and switch priorities quickly without losing momentum”

more in transport infrastructure outside of London are critical to boost the economy further. Indeed, the 2016-2017 Annual Report on Major Projects from the Infrastructure and Projects Authority report from the GMPP cites 37 infrastructure and construction projects worth £222.5billion. As was noted in the green paper, infrastructure “supports the other pillars of a modern industrial strategy”. Timely infrastructure investment is critical to the future of the country, which is why PMI is currently undertaking a major research project with the Institute for Government considering how to improve infrastructure decision-making in the UK. Without a robust, modern infrastructure, speed is compromised, trade is hobbled, and competitiveness ebbs. Just as important is a robust and secure digital infrastructure. Research from the government suggests that improved broadband speeds could add £17billion to UK output by 2024. As Karen Bradley MP, secretary of state for Culture, Media and Sport, wrote in a policy paper on digital strategy, “This government is committed to seeing this enormous potential fulfilled – to ensuring the UK is the best place to start and grow a digital business,

trial a new technology, or undertake advanced research and that the UK digital sectors remain world-leading. This requires supportive regulation but also first-class digital infrastructure and an advanced skills base.” Based on various papers put forth by the government, we know the areas where successful completion of projects is especially important. As a result of PMI research, we also know that improvements in project success are possible. Additionally, more recent research from PMI gives some important insight into reasons for improved success. Findings unveiled in PMI’s Pulse Of The Profession in-depth reports, Achieving Greater Agility and The Drivers Of Agility, demonstrate that an organisation’s agility level contributes to successful outcomes – and increases the value that projects deliver. Agility is the capability to quickly sense and adapt to external and internal changes to deliver relevant results in a productive and cost-effective manner. Agile, as an approach to delivering value, is a mindset based on a set of key values and principles designed to better enable collaborative work and deliver continuous value through a “people first” orientation.

While all project management approaches were proven to lead to successful outcomes, the study found that organisations with higher agility reported more projects successfully meeting original goals and business intent — whether they use hybrid (72 per cent), predictive (71 per cent) and agile (68 per cent) approaches — than those with low agility using the same methods. With increasing competition and accelerating disruptions from new technology, market shifts, and social change, the need to demonstrate agility will be greater than ever. And the stakes are greater still as the UK seeks to thrive under the auspices of Brexit. Success will hinge on the ability to react and adapt to unexpected roadblocks and market changes and switch priorities quickly without losing momentum. Thus, the UK must focus not only on the areas most likely to bring about strategic industrial change but also those methods and the mindset most likely to contribute to success. INDUSTRY VIEW

Mark A Langley (inset, left) is president and CEO, PMI www.pmi.org.uk

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Next-generation transport apps create seamless itineraries that travel with you

F YOU’VE got the time (and can be bothered), it’s possible to travel from Ipswich to Istanbul without setting foot on a plane. In fact, there is no city in Europe that you can’t reach by train, thanks to thousands of miles of track that crisscross the continent. But until recently the European rail industry was fragmented along national lines. For years, state-owned operators failed to collaborate, while low-cost airlines gobbled up market share. Booking anything but the simplest trip online required inside knowledge and a stiff drink. But in the last decade, regulation has been pushed through to open up the market. And thankfully for train travellers, things are finally starting to change for the better. While airlines still dominate, rail is now one of the fastest-growing travel sectors in Europe, with new operators and online competition driving down prices for customers. Behind the scenes, companies such as Loco2 have been wading through complexity to hook together different booking systems and create a single European rail platform. It’s now possible to book tickets from Margate to Milan and everywhere in between. Loco2’s technology crunches ticket and timetable data to find the best routes and prices for journeys in the UK and across Europe. Thanks to these developments, today, booking a train ticket is almost as easy as booking a flight. Customers can quickly search online or via mobile apps, booking, paying and downloading tickets via a simple user interface that works in the same way anywhere in the world. The technology works on the move too, incorporating real-time data to let travellers check platforms before they arrive at the station, and alerting them in advance of potential disruption. For years, European rail has lagged behind the airline industry but customers can now finally benefit from the open-market approach that drove innovation in the aviation sector, bringing price comparison and low-cost leaders. As the shake-up of the rail industry continues, customers can not only look forward to simple booking but cheaper prices too. Meanwhile, smartphone technology has been erasing much of the inconvenience of using public transport to get around our cities. It’s now normal to swan up to the bus stop bang on time, and the days of standing

“Companies such as Loco2 have been wading through complexity to hook together different booking systems and create a single European rail platform”

in the street to hail a cab are long gone, in most cities at least. There are many apps to help us navigate urban public transport, transforming how we travel locally, integrating public transport networks with “last mile” journey planning to optimise routes right up to your front door. I moved to London with a Nokia 3310 and a pocket A-Z. But it’s now ten years since the first iPhone was released, and there’s a new generation of Londoners who don’t even remember a time before Citymapper, let alone Google Maps. Not only is mobile technology changing the way we use cities, but it’s learning on the job as well... Your phone knows everything you’ve ever done, everywhere you’ve been, and it probably has a good idea of what you’ll do next. In short, it probably knows more about you than you do. Creepy? Maybe. But it’s 2017 and we’ve come to accept that the technology we interact with is tracking our every move, and thanks to data aggregation, making travel easier every day. Google Maps is the most-used smartphone app in the world, a must for pinpointing your location and getting around. It’s also the most advanced user of location data, tracking the places you’ve been to create a picture of you and your travel

habits. You might find it sinister, but vast quantities of anonymised data gathered in this way are already revolutionising how we travel. Location data from your own phone – and a billion others – is an extraordinary resource that saves time and money. What’s the best way to get from Bermondsey to Bristol at 6pm on a Monday in October (when it’s about to rain)? Walk, bike, bus, taxi, Tube, train? If you’re from Bhutan you’ve probably never made that trip but Google Maps has. But what if you could also search and book that trip, not only on national lines but internationally too, receiving the same real-time updates you’ve come to expect on your commute? The next few years will see the convergence of location data technology and urban transport planning with rail and other modes of longdistance travel. These hybrid apps – which combine travel and transport – will link local and international routes to create seamless itineraries that evolve over time. The more journeys we make, the more sophisticated the route planning becomes. Imagine a million phones working together to optimise every journey you ever make, using analytics to make it more efficient. As this technology becomes more sophisticated, transport services

will respond with more flexible and intelligent scheduling that reacts to traveller demand, and drivers, when they’re needed, will be empowered to operate more effectively. Smaller, greener vehicles, running on optimised routes, will deliver cleaner air and frictionless travel from A-Z. There is risk, however, of creating juggernauts like Uber, which relies on its popularity to cut corners where others follow the rules. Or Ryanair, whose general disdain for customers is only made worse by the depressing (but probably accurate) claim that low prices mean they’ll keep going back for more. As we strive for more effective journey planners, technology must keep customers at the heart of it all, learning from user behaviour to increase satisfaction but being mindful that each point of data is a person. In this way, we can seek new ways to navigate more intuitively. The ultimate transport app will be a joy to use, useful and unobtrusive, saving time and money on every journey from your commute to an epic overland adventure. So how about that trip to Istanbul? INDUSTRY VIEW

Kate Andrews is co-founder of Loco2 @Loco2 https://loco2.com

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The debate What will Britain look like in 2030? Mark A Langley

RITAIN’S FUTURE will be defined by how the country moves forward in the postBrexit era. Earlier this year, the government released a green paper unveiling the government’s post-Brexit vision, which is focused on “creating the conditions where successful businesses can emerge and grow,” encouraged by an “active government” that “will build on Britain’s strategic strengths and tackle our underlying weaknesses, like low productivity.” The paper created the foundation for shaping the nation’s future – now it’s up to the government to execute. Britain’s government will need to invest in building a skills base and use established project management approaches to ensure its projects are completed on time and within budget – and align with the overall strategy laid out in the green paper. Our research has found that organisations that invest in proven project management practices waste 28 times less money due to poor project performance. We eagerly await the release of the Industrial Strategy Green Paper expected later this year.

Paul Devoy

Cameron Stewart

President and CEO PMI

RITAIN MIGHT not look so different in 2030, but we’ll have different lives – ones we can’t fully imagine now. Start with the near term and close to home: electric cars, personal power generation, zero waste consumption, near 100 per cent working and shopping from home. Then look further ahead and to business: blockchain changes banking forever, AI performs both basic and complex business functions, technology becomes even more ingrained in our lives, humans are regarded as inferior decision-makers and access to data is the primary measure of corporate value. What does this mean? Organisations that are focused on leveraging the available data and are prepared to adapt to an increasingly changeable business world will be well placed to stay ahead of the competition. INDUSTRY VIEW

Cameron.Stewart@axelos.com www.axelos.com

INDUSTRY VIEW

www.pmi.org.uk

Kate Andrews

CEO Investors in People

Head of PPM AXELOS

Co-founder Loco2

INDUSTRY VIEW

www.investorsinpeople.com/ benefits-iip-accreditation

@Loco2 http://loco2.com

he organisations thriving in 2030 will be those who have understood and future-proofed their workforces. These will be businesses that have embraced innovative technology, with the capacity to fundamentally improve the way their organisation works. They’ll achieve this through close collaboration with relevant training programmes, providing sustainable career pathways for the best talent. They will understand that harnessing technological, social and generational diversity is vital to growth and creativity. Finding effective ways to put people first will be more important than ever. In Britain and elsewhere, the Investors in People Standard will help facilitate a productive dialogue throughout organisations. Strong leadership will be that which has the ability to attract, develop and retain worldclass talent. In 2030, I believe there will be a greater determination on the part of employers to realise the potential of their people.

MARTPHONES HAVE already erased much of the inconvenience of using public transport to get around our cities, helping us navigate urban transport and transforming how we travel locally. Car use has peaked and will continue to decline in cities, where digital technologies make ownership seem archaic. Soon, similar innovations will expand beyond our cities by incorporating AI-powered journey insights and open data to optimise all travel. Mobile technology will evolve to empower location-based and real-time services that meet travellers’ needs on a more personal basis. As this technology becomes more sophisticated, transport services will respond with more flexible and intelligent scheduling that reacts to traveller demand. And drivers, when they’re needed, will be empowered to operate more effectively. Smaller, greener vehicles, running on optimised routes, will deliver cleaner air and frictionless travel from A-Z and everywhere in between.

We need to embrace electric vehicles if the air pollution in our cities is to reach acceptable levels THE LAST WORD JOANNE FREARSON

ITH AIR pollution now at critical life threatening levels in cities such as London, moving into 2030 the government needs to look at ways we can make our cities cleaner. London in particular has an extremely dangerous air pollution problem and 7.9 million Londoners – 95 per cent of the capital’s population – live in areas exceeding World Health Organisation air quality guidelines by at least 50 per cent. It is widely acknowledged that the dangerous toxic air particles known as PM2.5 have a big impact on health following both short and long-term exposure and increase the likelihood of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Research has found these toxic air particles have resulted in 29,000 premature deaths in the UK every year, while children exposed to them are more likely to grow up with reduced lung function and develop asthma. The main sources of PM2.5 emissions in

London are from tyre and brake wear, construction and wood burning, with around half of PM2.5 in London from external sources outside the city. The mayor, Sadiq Khan, is planning to get pollution levels within WHO guidelines by 2030. The push now for 2030 is for people to switch to electric cars instead of diesel or petrol. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced that all its new cars launched will be electrified by 2020, while Aston Martin will produce its first allelectric model RapidE in 2019. The mayor has also called on all vehicle manufacturers to take serious action of diesel emission and contribute to his Air Quality Fund. The government is planning to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2040. Other projects, which could be in fruition by 2030 in the UK and potentially, help make our environment cleaner as well as reduce our energy needs, are driverless cars. As well as being electric they will also use the internet of things (IoT)

“London in particular has extremely dangerous air pollution – 95 per cent of the capital’s population live in areas exceeding the WHO’s air quality guidelines by at least 50 per cent”

to gather data about what is happening on our transport networks in our cities. Through IoT driverless cars will be able to talk to traffic lights, and other cars to understand where there are congestion spots. They would be able to drive in a way which uses the least amount of energy – for example, platoon driving, where vehicles drive closely to one another matching their speed and braking patterns to improve aerodynamics, traffic flow and performance. As driverless cars can drive themselves around and free up the need to have your car in one spot for a day, people may choose they do not need to own a car so much. By 2030 two-car families could become one-car families. Driverless cars could become part of the sharing economy, where instead owning a car people will use them on a sharing basis. Wherever we are in 2030, when it comes to driverless cars, the UK has to take action to make our cities cleaner.