the art & science of
FORECASTING
WHAT WILL THE RETURNS ON THE S&P 500 BE FROM ITS CLOSING PRICE ON JAN. 1 THROUGH CLOSING ON MARCH 31?
A loss of 5% to 10% Tom Sosnoff: The market will normalize after the huge rally from 2021.
A gain of less than 5% Chris Beauchamp: Strong likely gains into year-end will set up the risk of a pullback in the first quarter.
Dylan Ratigan: Markets will be calm in Q1. Anthony Scaramucci: The markets are built to go higher.
Ed Yardeni: Strong economic growth is
WHAT WILL THE RETURNS ON GOLD BE FROM ITS CLOSING PRICE ON JAN. 1 THROUGH CLOSING ON MARCH 31?
WHAT WILL THE RETURNS ON BITCOIN BE FROM ITS CLOSING PRICE ON JAN. 1 THROUGH CLOSING ON MARCH 31?
A loss of 5% to 10%
A gain of less than 5%
Anthony Scaramucci: Bitcoin is
Dylan Ratigan: Bitcoin doesn’t move
replacing gold.
as much as you think it does.
A gain of less than 5%
A gain of 5% to 10%
Chris Beauchamp: A potential weakening
Ed Yardeni: Bitcoin will continue to
of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish narrative should weaken the dollar and help gold.
trend higher as long as there are more buyers than sellers, a situation that is likely to persist well into next year.
Dylan Ratigan: Inflation will persist. Tom Sosnoff: Gold has been quiet for so long, it’s time to move.
Ed Yardeni: Cryptocurrencies are
likely to support solid growth in earnings of around 8% next year. Profit margins are likely to remain high, thanks to productivity.
providing an alternative hedge against central banks. Real interest rates are likely to rise next year, which is a negative for gold.
The majority of Luckbox readers (24.9%)
The majority of Luckbox readers (42.8%)
The majority of Luckbox readers (24.7%)
A gain of more than 15% Anthony Scaramucci: Network effects and supply shock.
Tom Sosnoff: Bitcoin may not go lower for quite some time.
AS
AS TS
TS
CB
CB
DR
DR DR
AS EY
EY TS
EY
A LOSS OF MORE THAN 15% ............................ 5.0%
A LOSS OF MORE THAN 15% ............................. 2.5%
A LOSS OF MORE THAN 15% ............................. 7.4%
A LOSS OF 10% TO 15% ..................................... 7.5%
A LOSS OF 10% TO 15% ..................................... 3.5%
A LOSS OF 10% TO 15% .................................... 45.0%
A LOSS OF 5% TO 10% ..................................... 16.9%
A LOSS OF 5% TO 10% ........................................ 7.5%
A LOSS OF 5% TO 10% ....................................... 7.5%
A LOSS OF LESS THAN 5% ................................. 17.4%
A LOSS OF LESS THAN 5% ............................... 15.9%
A LOSS OF LESS THAN 5% ................................. 6.0%
A GAIN OF LESS THAN 5% ............................... 24.9%
A GAIN OF LESS THAN 5% ............................. 42.8%
A GAIN OF LESS THAN 5% ................................ 15.4%
A GAIN OF 5% TO 10% ..................................... 22.9%
A GAIN OF 5% TO 10% ..................................... 22.9%
A GAIN OF 5% TO 10% ..................................... 24.8%
A GAIN OF 10% TO 15% ..................................... 4.5%
A GAIN OF 10% TO 15% .................................... 3.0%
A GAIN OF 10% TO 15% .................................. 18.3%
A GAIN OF MORE THAN 15% ............................. 1.0%
A GAIN OF MORE THAN 15% ............................. 2.0%
A GAIN OF MORE THAN 15% ........................... 14.4%
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Luckbox | January / February 2022
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12/17/21 5:07 PM
