AUGUST
HERE-TURI-KOKA 2022
More chaos for Bays as climate change plays out
The sun will come out...
by Louise Parry Eastbourne residents have been given a startling update on how climate change will affect our community. If the increasing frequency of storm surges and inundation of Marine Parade, slips and flooding weren't enough to convince locals to take urgent action to reduce carbon emissions, presentations from climate change experts at this month’s Eastbourne climate change response meeting left residents with no doubt that the impact of climate change will become more dramatic and damaging to the Eastern Bays in the future. With at least a half metre sea level rise guaranteed this century, the Eastern Bays are facing a two-way threat to coastal infrastructure and properties. Land subsidence along the Eastbourne coastline, combined with sea level rise from ice sheet melt and expanded seas from ocean temperature increasing, mean we must mitigate the effects caused by current global warming, and from that yet to come. GNS Science Environment and Climate Theme Leader Richard Levy told the meeting that the sea level rose 20cm across the world in the last hundred years. With increased carbon emissions, that rate is accelerating. Sea level rise predictions in Wellington have been available since 2017. However, these do not take into account storm surges, or vertical land movements. "Where the coast is sinking, it amplifies the sea level rise locally,” Dr Levy said.
John Rainey-Smith captured this rainbow image during a break in the torrential rain last week. Eastbourne has had 190mm of rain so far this month, with rain on 17 out of 22 days as we went to print. Darren Schollum, who runs the Eastbourne weather station, said it was the wettest August since he began recording local weather in 2006. July was no better; it rained 25 days last month.
Geonet had estimated lateral and vertical land movement across the country, using GNSS stations, and satellite aperture radar (inSAR). By taking this into account, sea level rise projections are brought forward by twenty to thirty years. “This community is exposed to sea level rise. It's probably going to happen sooner than we thought because of the land subsidence." Projections for Seaview and Lowry Bay show that, while houses on higher ground aren't exposed, Marine Drive is at risk of flooding. The 2015 Paris Accord saw 196 parties ratify a target to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared
to pre-industrial levels. "Let's not take our eye off the emissions reduction target, it is absolutely fundamental." But Dr Levy said that even if the target is met, we are going to have to adapt to an unavoidable 30cm sea level rise within the next 20-30 years, with the heat "already baked into the system" continuing to cause ice sheet melt. Roger Blakeley, Greater Wellington Regional Councillor, warned we only have ten years to get on top of climate change. He spoke about efforts GWRC is making to reduce emissions, particularly from vehicles. Continues on Page 2
Don’t Forget Dad. Fathers Day.
Sunday 4th September.