Future scenario report Coca-Cola

Future scenario report Coca-Cola Netherlands Future scope: 2020 Lori Brekelmans 2181641 19 januari 2015

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Table of content Case description

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Methodology description

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Internal analysis & Decision focus 4 External analysis 6 / Steep 6 / Sector trends 11 / Consumer trends 17 Impact – insecurity matrix 20 Key uncertainty axes 22 Outlines of general scenario’s

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Scenario: Poor Health 24 Strategic advice 28 List of references

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Case description For the Advanced Course Futures Research & Trendwatching, we formed groups that had to choose a specific brand or company within a sector and scope of time.

Our group chose the sector “Health”, and specified our scope of time to 2020, since trends around health, diets and food/beverages in general come into this world with a particular speed. We choose the company Coca-Cola and narrowed this down to Coca-Cola Netherlands, since it would otherwise be too broad in order to apply the trends well.

Our plan was to come up with four different scenarios for Coca-Cola Netherlands in 2020, based on several trends on which we conducted elaborate research. These trends should be uncertain in order to create scenarios that are possible, but don’t necessarily have to be likely to happen.

Methodology description A scenario is simply a description of how the future can work out for a company. This scenario will only happen if a certain set of conditions (or events) will happen in this world.

By offering four different scenarios that came out of our research within a matrix, we set four different possible futures for Coca-Cola Netherlands. Each scenario is of course based on different conditions.

In order to not make these scenarios look like “science-fiction” (so very unlikely to happen), we chose the scope of time to be 2020. A scenario can only be useful when the changes are most threatening for the company and uncertainty is at its peak. That’s why the matrix should be created with at least two uncertain trends. This means that we don’t know which way this trend will go. There are facts that it could go one way, but there are also facts that it could go the other way around.

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Internal analysis & decision focus Our group chose Coca-Cola Netherlands, as stated before. Coca-Cola is part of The Coca-Cola Company and has been since 1893. It was also registered as a trademark in the same year. The founder of Coca-Cola is John Pemberton. The Coca-Cola Company exists since 1982 and was found by Asa Griggs Candler. The head quarter is based in Atlanta.

(Wikipedia, 2014) Coca-Cola is known for its black, fizzy, sweet, carbonated drink. Besides regular Coca-Cola, people can also buy Diet Coke, Coke Zero, Caffeine-free, Cherry, Lemon, Vanilla, and since January 2015 also Coca-Cola Life.

Coca-Cola has only been available in the Netherlands since the Olympic games of 1928.

In 1930, the Dutch Coca-Cola Company was established and took over a different soda brand, called Noca Nola, by which they had access to the entire Dutch market.

(Wikipedia, 2014) The missions of Coca-Cola are: 1) To refresh the world 2) To inspire moments of optimism and happiness 3) To create value and make a difference The visions of Coca-Cola are: • People: Be a great place to work where people are inspired to be the best they can

be.

• Portfolio: Bring to the world a portfolio of quality beverage brands that anticipate

and satisfy people’s desires and needs.

• Partners: Nurture a winning network of customers and suppliers, together we

create mutual, enduring value.

• Planet: Be a responsible citizen that makes a difference by helping build and

support sustainable communities.

• Profit: Maximize long-term return to shareowners while being mindful of our

overall responsibilities.

• Productivity: Be a highly effective, lean and fast-moving organization.

(The Coca-Cola Company)

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As seen globally, Coca-Cola is a leader when it comes to the beverages industry. The company offers hundreds of brands to its consumers, ranging from soft drinks to fruit juices, and from sports drinks to energy drinks. Some other brands next to Coca-Cola are Fanta, Sprite, Chaudfontaine, Minute Maid, Aquarius, Nestea and Monster Energy.

The entire turnover for the Coca-Cola Company in 2013 came down to $46,9 milliard. The profit, which remained from the turnover, was $8,6 milliard. (Wikipedia, 2014) Coca-Cola is famous for its promotional actions throughout the world. One of the most recent ones was “Share a Coke”, where people could order bottles with names of loved ones. (Coca-Cola, 2014) Another one is “The friendly bottle”. This was a design by Coca-Cola, which made a bottle of Coca-Cola unable to be opened without another bottle. This is called social packaging and was basically designed in order to help college freshmen in America break the ice. (Adweek, 2014) There were also some vending machines, which offered a polar bear and the money for a new bottle of Coca-Cola. (Schiffer, 2012) This polar bear has become a mascot for Coca-Cola. The company firstly introduced these polar bears in 1922. (Ryan, 2012)

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External analysis / STEEP research

Social & Demographic

• Leisure & Sports Coca-Cola sponsors sports events only. Also, if you visit a restaurant or you go out, you can find Coca-Cola almost everywhere. (Coca-Cola Nederland, 2014) • Drug & Alcohol Newest research proves that sugar is just as addictive as drugs and alcohol. This can have a big impact on Coca-Cola. This awareness has become greater over the recent years.

(Lambert, 2014) • Social unrest The consumer is tired of being misled and demands companies to be honest and transparent. This has been growing as we can also see this because of movements from Occupy and Anonymous. (Marshall, 2014) • Green & healthy behavior This is a big trend nowadays. It seems that consumers are getting more and more interested about a healthy lifestyle. (Environment & Behavior) • Family composition The more kids a family had, the more Coca-Cola there is available in the house? Years ago, it was normal to have a lot of kids. Nowadays, researchers believe it will be stagnating somewhat more. (CBS, 2014) • Disposable income Coca-Cola is cheap in comparison with healthier beverages. This could be a motive for people with a lower disposable income to buy soda instead of a healthy beverage. On the other hand, Coca-Cola is the most expensive in their category (soda) and people may choose a cheaper Cola brand. Americans believe that for the retired ones the disposable income is growing, but will be less for everyone else. (Arnett, 2013) • Conscious consumer The consumer gets more and more conscious of the effect that food and beverages has on their health. This has been growing over the years. (Beyond Consumerism, 2014)

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• Life expectation People do get older nowadays, but because of our bad eating habits the quality of life is likely to go down over the years. A lot of modern diseases are the result of bad eating habits, like obesity and diabetes. Worldwide obesity has doubled since the 1980’s, yet it keeps on growing. (World Health Organization, 2014) • Lifestyle A healthy lifestyle is more important nowadays. This includes mostly healthy eating and exercise. People are exercising more than ever. (Daily Mail, 2013) • Generational differences Your grandma would not have recognized the food and beverages we eat nowadays. Our generation has grown up with junk food, like soda.

• Increase of ageing population It seems like the world has been taken over by elderly people. People are growing a lot older nowadays than they would have years ago. Research shows prognoses that this will continue even more. (CBS, 2014) • Norms and values It is hard to change the norms and values you grew up with, this also includes the eating habits you learned over the years. Drinking Coca-Cola has become ‘normal’.

Technology • Patents Coca-Cola has some secret ingredients and only they have the right to use them.

• New products & services Coca-Cola keeps designing new product to keep innovative and to meet the needs of the consumer.

• (Social) media Coca-Cola uses (social) media to promote their products. There is also a lot of unwanted media attention for Coca-Cola, giving out negative information about the products. The use of social media in the Netherlands is constantly increasing. (Oosterveer, 2014)

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Economic • Consumer confidence This is something Coca-Cola is losing more and more. The consumer demands transparency and, although Coca-Cola is doing the best they can as a soda brand, a lot of consumers choose not to drink Coca-Cola anymore. This is an issue for them.

Transparency is something that has been around only in the recent years, but will get bigger and bigger. (Edelman, 2013) • Competition Coca-Cola is a strong market leader in the soda branch, but there will always be other soda brands with which they have to compete with.

• Price quality ratio Soda is a product that has a small price for low quality (cheap / unhealthy).

• Taxes In the future there might be a tax on sugar and fat. This is something that will influence Coca-Cola. Taxes have been used in Finland and Hungary since 2011. The rest of the world can’t and shouldn’t hold back. Research shows that the taxes do work.

(EurActiv, 2014) • Power of the consumer If the consumer wants something different, the producer will have to listen and make changes to keep their sales up. Right now, the consumer wants more healthy products, and Coca-Cola will have to act on this wish. This aligns with the demanded transparency.

(Urban & Emeritus)

Ecological • Food safety Is soda safe to drink? A lot of new research shows that additives, sugar and caffeine damage your health. This is something that Coca-Cola also has to deal with.

• Temperature Temperature changes may also affect our drinking choice. This could be aligned with the awareness of global warming. This was presented by Al Gore in 2007 and has been increasing ever since. (NRDC) • Quality of water Good quality water is essential for the soda business. Is this something to worry about (or perhaps in the future)?

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• GMO Another issue that is living in the minds of the consumer. Is Coca-Cola using GMO products? GMO is mostly used in order to “Feed the World” and create more crops of some sort. This will help when we run out of the natural resources. There are good and bad sides to GMO. (Mission 2014, 2014) • Natural sources The consumer believes that natural food and beverages are healthier, and this is getting more important. Coca-Cola reacts to this need by using natural sweeteners in their product (new Coca-Cola Life). (Ruz, 2011)

Political • Environment The materials Coca-Cola uses aren’t good for the environment, because the products increase the plastic soup.

• Science Maybe in 5 years research about the effect of food and beverages shows something completely different to what we believe today. This could affect the soda branch.

• Transparency Something consumers find very important nowadays, especially in the food and beverages branch.

• Education We need to be educated at school about the effects of food and beverages on our health.

This is something that is very likely to be reality in the future.

• Influence government The government has a lot of power when it comes to making decisions within the food industry. In the future there might be other laws about food and beverages (for example the sugar tax).

• Healthcare The costs in the healthcare are still increasing. If we continue living like this, this problem will only grow bigger. Especially modern diseases like obesity and diabetes are a big problem within healthcare. This is food related problem, and Coca-Cola needs to take their responsibility.

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External analysis / Sector trends Trend: Printed Food Source: ‘Foodini’ machine lets you print edible burgers, pizza, chocolate 3D printers are able to print out edible food. It is a mini food manufacturer that people will have in their own kitchens. It stimulates healthy eating while it is required to put in fresh ingredients. The machine makes real food, made with real ingredients. According to the article people can purchase their own printer by the end of next year. (Prisco, 2014) Source: The future of food is 3D printed In the future the 3D printer will be a common used kitchen machine just like the microwave. Printed food can reduce food waste and be a method to fight obesity. The main goal is to get people to eat healthy and help them prepare meals when they have limited time. (Graves, 2014) Trend: Eating insects Source: Eating insects: will this be the culinary future?

Products will get scarce and raw materials are getting more expensive. We need to find new ways to feed ourselves, for example by eating insects. The University of Wageningen has spent a big conference on ‘Insects to feed the world’ and a cookbook called ‘The Insect Cookbook’ won the first prize at the Green Book Festival. The head editor of Quest tells in an interview that we really need to start eating insects if we want to have food available in 2050. (Culy.nl, 2014) Source: The whole eating insects Eating insects will become necessary but a lot of people are horrified when they think about it. The company ‘Eat Ento’ in London says they have the solution for this problem and get people to eat insects. Their concept is about incorporating insects into dishes without traces of them being in there. Step by step Ento wants to change the view on eating insects so that by 2020 the supermarkets will sell them in their stores.

(Food Inspiration, 2013)

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Trend: Drinking water instead of soda Source: Dutch people drink more water and less soda In 2013 Dutch people drank about 58 million litres less soda and fruit juices and drank much more tap water. That drinking water is preferred over other beverages is due to three main reasons.

1 Water fits a healthy lifestyle 2 Tap water is cheaper than bottled water 3 Tapping water at home has less impact on the environment (ANP, 2014) Source: 63% of Americans Actively Avoid Soda Americans are realizing what the dangers are of drinking soda and 63% actively try to avoid it. This is an increase in comparison with 2002 when only 41% did this. The soda consumption is at its lowest level at the moment. Research has shown that there is a connection between the high rates of obesity and diabetes and drinking soda. Coca cola is now trying to win teenage people again by introducing smaller sizes of coke.

(Dr. Mercola, 2014) Trend: People will use more natural raw materials Source: New commodities for biofuels Because of a decreasing level of primary raw materials, people are finding new materials to produce fuel. Instead of petrol and diesel, which are made of oil, some vehicles use bio fuel, made from materials like sugar-palm, tropical sugar beet, cassava, sorghum and coco. (Elbersen, Oyen, Bakker, & Blaauw) Source: Feasibility study of biodegradable plastic bags People are using too much plastic bags. These bags will end as garbage at streets and in sea. The Wageningen University started a research to the aim for using bioplastics. These plastics are biodegradable. (van den Oever, Bolck, Bos, Molenveld, van der Zee, & Schennink) Source: Future Sources of Organic Raw Materials “Future Sources of Organic Raw Materials: CHEMRAWN I is a collection of lectures presented at the World Conference on Future Sources of Organic Raw Materials, held in Toronto, Canada, on July 10-13, 1978. The conference focused on potential future sources of organic raw materials such as non-conventional fossil hydrocarbons, coal, industrial and agricultural wastes, and renewable resources like wood and other plant materials.� (St-Pierre & Brown) (Elsevier, 2014)

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Trend: Genetically modified food Source: GMO A genetically modified organism (GMO) is an organism whose genetic material has been modified by use of genetic engineering (Wikipedia, 2014) Source: Coca-Cola donated 3,2 million dollar to defeat GMO labeling Coca-Cola and its products are becoming boycotted garbage due to the growing public awareness concerning companies who are supporting the defeat of GMO labeling.

(Sarich, 2014) Source: Big trouble for Coca-cola In October, campaign finance reports revealed that Coca-Cola had secretly contributed more than a million dollars to the fight against GMO labeling in Washington.

(Mapes, 2013) (Robbins, 2013) Trend: Food education Source: Forbid energy drinks for children younger than 13 years old Energy drinks are much more damaging than we could have imagined. Pediatrician Rolf Hellebore believes that selling these drinks to children under the age of 13 should be prohibited. The drinks contain a lot of caffeine, taurine, but most of all – sugar. (Van Rossum, 2014) Source: Government must interfere: Less meat, salt, sugar and fat The government of the Netherlands should intervene. There should be less meat, less salt, less sugar and less fat available in this country. Because the health issues amongst all citizens of the world grow, it is an important issue that should be addressed in every country. (Reijn, 2014) Source: Are students eating too much sugar?

With a growing understanding about sugar and the addictiveness that comes with it, universities are supporting healthy eating for its students. Since a lot of students are living on pizzas, takeaways and chocolate bars, they contribute in substance abuse. (Cox, 2013)

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Trend: More awareness about the addictiveness of sugar Source: Brain scans have confirmed that intermittent sugar consumption affects the brain in ways similar to certain drugs.

A highly cited study in the journal Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews found that sugar—as pervasive as it is—meets the criteria for a substance of abuse and may be addictive to those who binge on it. It does this by affecting the chemistry of the limbic system, the part of the brain that’s associated with emotional control. (Krans, 2013) Source: 10 disturbing similarities between sugar, junk food and abusive drugs.

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Junk Foods Flood The Brain With Dopamine 2.

Junk Foods Can Lead to Powerful Cravings 3.

Imaging Studies Have Shown That Junk Foods Light up the Same Brain Areas as

Drugs of Abuse 4.

A Tolerance to The “Rewarding” Effects Builds up 5.

Many People Binge on Junk Foods 6.

Cross-Sensitization: Lab Animals Can Switch From Drugs to Sugar, and Vice Versa 7.

Drugs That Fight Addiction Are Being Used For Weight Loss 8.

Abstaining Can Lead to Withdrawal Symptoms 9.

Junk Foods Are Seriously Harmful to Physical Health 10. Food Addiction Symptoms Satisfy The Official Medical Criteria For Addiction (Gunnars) Source: The shape we are in According to this article, it’s not sugar we are addicted to and that is causing so many of us to put on too much weight. According to researchers at the University of Edinburgh, we are addicted to eating itself. (Boseley, 2014) Good video about obesity and the danger of our eating habits (Tait & Boyd, 2014) Trend: Sugar tax Source: Fizzy drinks and sweet treats should be doubled in price to prevent an epidemic of tooth decay, according to researchers.

Earlier this year the chief medical officer Professor Dame Sally Davies conceded that a sugar tax may be necessary to tackle obesity although ministers say there are no plans for such measures. (Borland, 2014) Source: Dutch Study Proves that Soda Tax Will Reduce Consumption (with a link to the research they did) (Weingarten, 2014) Research: (Waterlander, Mhurchu, & Steenhuis, 2014)

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Source: Dutch government A senior health official in Amsterdam has advised the Dutch government that warnings on sugar laden products should be introduced to help control the worsening obesity epidemic in the Netherlands. (Wilson, 2013) Trend: Economic crisis Source: The Netherlands are crisis free but the economy does not grow this year The Netherlands are out of the crisis, we heard it everywhere the last few months. But that is not for those who look to the latest estimates of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).

With a meager growth of 0.2 percent this year Netherlands are hardly emerged from the stagnation. (Bijlo, 2014) Source: Unhealthier diets because of the crisis?

The central question is whether consumers have become unhealthy because of the crisis is not unambiguously answerable. On the one hand, there are indications that fewer healthy products have been purchased(mainly fish), on the other hand, often money is saved by buying less unhealthy products (candy / liquorish / chocolate, savory snacks).

(Temminghoff & Damen, 2013)

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External analysis / Mentality trends Trend: People want to waste less food Source: British families waste less food since recession, government survey suggests Due to financial pressure people are wasting less food than they used to. They aren’t just throwing it away anymore and are focused on buying bargains. The recession has a long lasting impact on the eating habits of people. (Smithers, 2014) Source: Have lunch with Damn Food Waste in Groningen ‘Damn Food Waste’ is an organization that organizes events to raise attention for food waste in The Netherlands. They organize free lunches from products that would else never has been used. (Duurzaam Door, 2014) Source: No food waste during Leids Taste-the-waste diner Food that has expired gets a second chance at the free Taste-the-waste diner at the city Leiden. Organizations work together to raise awareness around this topic and are working together to find a solution for this problem. (No Waste Network, 2014) Source: 20% less food waste in 2015 Reducing food waste will get top priority in the upcoming years. Political pressure as well as the public opinion will no longer accept they way food gets wasted when people are starving at the same time. (Taste the Waste) Trend: Food Telling (food with a message) Source: Top 8 Food Trends for 2020 There is a demand for transparent, attractive and accessible information. Consumers want to know about the food they consume and by adding a message the food gets an identity and is more authentic. (Breyer, 2012) Trend: Good Food Source: Foodtrends 2015 – 2020 Food will have four elements that they need to score high on. Food needs to taste good, is good, be good and do well. A product needs to taste well otherwise people do not want to eat it. Is good because they products need to be as pure as possible. Be good because it needs to contribute to a good health and do well because it needs to make a contribution to society. Companies need to think about all these aspects to stand out and attracts customers. (Heshof, 2014)

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Trend: People often opt for healthy food Source: Dutch people eat healthier because of the crisis Dutch people eat healthier because of the economic crisis. They cook more often and go out to dinner less. Unhealthy products with a lot of salt, sugar and fat are purchased less.

We tend to save more money on candy and snacks than on healthy food such as fruit and vegetables. (RTL Nieuws, 2013) Source: Food Trends 2015: What awaits us?

This year people have started to look differently at food. This is mainly due to the fact that there were a lot of food scandals. People have started to change their eating habits. Not necessarily because it is cheaper, but due to the fact that by preparing your food yourself you know exactly what is in it. (Boekhorst, 2014) Source: Young people want to eat healthy The newest generation wants to eat more healthy than the previous generations. They have a preference for vegetables and home cooked meals. Pre-packaged and ready to eat meals are getting less and less popular. Previous generations are also starting to prefer healthy meals. The reason for this healthy eating trend is that this generation wants to know exactly what they eat. (Nu.nl, 2014) Trend: Consumer power grows Source: Consumers with muscles Already since the 90’s is predicted that the lopsided balance of power between brand and consumers would change by the arrival of the internet. The power of consumers has increased by a much wider range of products and services that can be found on the internet which makes it easier for consumers to find an alternative provider. The power of consumers has also increased by the possibility of online sharing with each others network. (SWOCC, 2014) Source: Internet brought consumer power What until recently was seen as ‘the greatest legal creation of wealth in history’, was soon renamed to a dangerous pyramid scheme. Digitalization has created a gap: Those between companies and governments on one hand and consumers on the other. (De Volkskrant, 2010) Trend: Living in a sharing economy Source: I can do something, you have got something. The new bartering We speak of bartering if goods or services are exchanged for other goods or services, without making use of money. I cut your hedge in exchange for that beautiful record cover of the Rolling Stones (Sticky Fingers). This exchange principle can be implemented on many levels. (Steins Bisschop, 2014)

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Source: Sharing economy The ideas of the sharing economy part is not new, but the Internet model is also suitable for large scale. The economic crisis is playing a role in a focus on the economy. But even more important is that people pay more value to access and less on belongings. (van Sprang, 2014) Trend: ‘A bad bargain is dear at a farthing’ - obesity and diabetes are growing Source: A healthy diet is more expensive than an unhealthy one: study A new study shows that shopping for healthier food (diets with lots of fruits, frish, vegetables and nuts) at the grocery store is more expensive than picking out unhealthier foods (diets with processed foods, refined grains and meat). However, those expenses are nothing compared to the costs of healthcare due to diet-related diseases like obesity, diabetes and hearth-disease. (Palmer, 2013) Source: Figures overweight in 2013 by CBS In the past thirty years, the proportion of overweight people in the Netherlands had increased. In the category adults as well as in the category 2-20 years old. On average the percentage of overweight among adults increased by more than 50% and among young people there is an increase visible of 40%. Youngsters in households with lower income are more often overweight and go to the doctor more often than those who those in higher income groups. (CBS, 2013) Source: Why quick, cheap food is actually more expensive What is the real cost of cheap food (the cost in dollars, on our health, on our environment, and even on the fraying fabric of our social and family systems)? The true cost of unhealthy food isn’t just the price tag. In fact, the real costs are hidden (think of the health care costs that come from diseases like obesity and diabetes). And eating healthy doesn’t have to cost more, you just need to find other sources. (Hyman, 2010)

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Impact

Impact - inse Global warming

e consumer GMO Power of the owing t is gro

Consumption of soda is getting less Keep it simple / back to basic/nature

Sharing economy

More use of natural odities commo sed health Personalis (maintaining your own alth) hea

Eating healthy is too expensive

Creating natural flavours (avoiding artificial flavouring)

Food-telling / food with a message

Eating bugs

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nt to waste People wan less food

Food is becoming an experience "Eatertainment"

Future soda (ferme

Uniqueness

ecurity matrix 2020

(people don’t want this anymore

People choose for healthy food more often

ugar and fat Taxes on su

Sugar is just as addictive as drugs and alcohol

Political policies Education on schools about the dangers of sugar

Economic crisis

Printed food

ented)

Uncertainty 21

Key uncertainty - axes

Strong economy - Weak economy This is a very big uncertainty at this point. We can’t be sure in which direction this is heading and this is also the reason why we choose this to be one of the axes. The state the economy is in in the year 2020 will have a big influence on our buying and living behavior. Also the retail business is dependent on the economy. This is why this is an interesting uncertainty for Coca-Cola Netherlands to look at.

Interested consumer - Uninsterested consumer At this point the world seems to be divided in two different groups when it comes to health and lifestyle: the consumer that is very interested and aware of the fact that change is needed. This consumer is also willing to make changes in their own lifestyle.

On the other hand you have the consumer that is not interested in health and who is not willing to listen to the advices or to adapt their lifestyle. Both groups are well represented, but the group of interested consumers seems to be growing over the last couple of years. Still it is very interesting for Coca-Cola to place this uncertainty on the axes and see which future scenario’s evolve.

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Outlines of scenario’s 1.

Weak economy - Interested consumers: Poor Health In this scenario, we see that the consumer is very conscious about his or her health, but in a cheap way. They prefer taking the bike than the car, because it is healthy and gasoline will be very expensive. The consumer often shops, in a healthy manner, at cheaper supermarkets such as Aldi and Lidl. In addition to this, many products will be purchased directly from the producer (like farms). Consumers mostly drink water and will hardly drink soda. Fast food chains are put offside and must adapt to the healthy living pattern of consumers. The transport of food is very expensive, which leads to higher food prices.

Consumers create an aversion against overweight people and carry on too far with their healthy life pattern, which leads to stress and possibly anorexia.

2.

Strong economy - Interested consumers: Whealthies In this scenario it’s particularly clear that consumers focus more on luxury products and services. Organic supermarkets that offer a lot of variety become the standard in this idleness society. Consumers pay close attention to what they buy, eat and drink.

Consumers will immediately “punish” brands that make use of deceptive packaging and advertisements. Because people can spend more money, many people will have a personal trainer and a private cook. Children will receive extensive education in schools on healthy lifestyles. This ensures that there are fewer people that are overweight.

3.

Weak economy - Uninterested consumers: Slowbesity This scenario creates a lazy society with many overweight and obese patients.

Supermarkets sell many ready-made meals and the rows for the fast food restaurants stand outside the door. Consumers do not look for quality and go for the cheapest products, which often are bursting of E-Numbers. Because the consumer is not interested in the expensive, healthy lifestyle, there will be a lot of competition between supermarkets. Gyms and sports clubs will go bankrupt. This is one of the best scenarios for Coca-Cola, but they have to think responsible. They will not want a world like this.

4.

Strong economy - Uninterested consumers: LEazy When this scenario will be the future, there will be a lot of overweight people. Every street corner has it’s own fast food restaurant. When consumers eat at home, the microwave will work overtime. With the plate on your lap looking at the television will be a habit. Gyms and sports clubs go bankrupt, since consumers prefer to go to a restaurant or a cafe for a nice dinner or an evening drink with snacks. This will also lead to new clothing stores with lots of (extremely) large clothing sizes. Children often buy a fat snack with a can of soda at recess at school. Because there is a strong economy, some people will be a lot richer than others.

Since they are not interest in their health, but do want to look fit at an easy way, they will make more use of plastic surgery. It will be less of a “no-no”.

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Scenario: Poor Health I have chosen to describe this scenario through the eyes of me, Lori. I am a true ‘health freak’ myself and I see this as a possible future scenario for my own life. In this scenario it is the year 2020 and we are living in a weak economy with very interested and aware consumers. I am 29 years old and I live together with my boyfriend in an apartment in ‘s-Hertogenbosch.

It is 8.30 a.m. and the alarm on my phone goes off. Today is Saturday, so I don’t have to go to work today. During the week I work full-time as a communication expert. After snoozing the alarm a few times, I get out of bed. Before the day starts, I am going for a quick workout in the park nearby my house. I think exercise is important because it keeps me fit and in shape. I exercise about 4 times a week, mostly running and power training. I put my sport outfit on and I run towards the park. In this park we have a brand new Street Workout Park. This is a free workout area where you can do lots of different exercises.

Workout Parks like this are really popular nowadays, almost every big city has one. I think it is perfect because it is free and accessible for everyone. Saturday morning is always a busy morning at the park. I meet up with some friends and we workout for about an hour.

After the workout I run home, take a glass of water and I jump in the shower. I put some make-up on, choose my outfit and run downstairs.

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Breakfast time! I think breakfast is the most important meal of the day and I always make sure it’s healthy. Today I’m having oatmeal topped with banana and a cup of herbal tea on the side. I used to add more expensive fruits like blueberries and superfoods like goji berries, but I don’t want to spend my money on that anymore. There are lots of other fruits that are just as healthy and not so expensive. I was really into those expensive and exotic superfoods before, but now I prefer to go back to basic and just eat more ‘normal’ food that is healthy as well.

After breakfast it’s time to do some groceries for the weekend. I grab my bike and I cycle to the supermarket. I prefer to get my groceries at the Lidl and the Aldi. These supermarkets are way cheaper and they have good quality products. Especially the fruits and vegetables from the Lidl are amazing! They have won the price ‘Best fruits and vegetables’ for 10 years in a row now. I hardly ever go to the bigger supermarket chains like Albert Heijn and Jumbo anymore. These supermarket are highly competitive with each other about their prices, and I feel that it is at the expense of the product quality. Also the farmers don’t get a fair price that way. This is why I also like to get some of my groceries directly from the farmer. Products like eggs, meat and dairy products I always buy from the farmer. Their food is so pure and honest, and you can see where your food is coming from.

I also prefer my food to be as local as possible, because these foods contain more nutrients than food that has travelled for days. I also want to support the farmer and the hard work they do, so I believe they earn my money more than the big retailers. And most of the time it is cheaper too, a win-win situation!

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On my grocery list you can mainly find fresh and healthy foods like fruits, vegetables, fresh herbs, nuts, fish and meat. I cook a healthy meal every day and I never use any pre-packaged food. Junk food is also a no-go in our household. My boyfriend likes to eat a hamburger every now and then, but then I just make a fresh one myself. This way it is healthier and believe me, the taste is so much better! I also never drink soda or any other sugar-rich beverages. Just water and tea for me. It is better for my health and it is also a good way to save money. Soda is also very expensive nowadays, just like lots of other foods. Maybe this also has to do with the bad economy we live in.

In the weekends me and my boyfriend finally have some time together. During the week we both work hard, so in the weekends we always do something fun. We always loved to go to theme parks or to go to a city and have lunch together, but we don’t do this very often anymore because of the costs. We are both very active people, so we decide to go for a big walk in the dunes. We don’t live too far from the dunes, so we go there by bike.

We have a car, but we hardly use it though. We only take the car if we have to go far away from home or need to carry a lot of groceries. Lots of people are using their car less than they used too, and this seems to be paying off. I heard on the news yesterday that the environment is doing better than a few years back. There is a lot less environmental pollution, and experts believe that this has mainly to do with the decrease of cars that are on the roads. I think one of the big reasons why people use their car less often, is because of the gasoline costs. It is really not affordable anymore and the price seems to be going up every month. Also people are more aware of the environment, so the high gasoline prices only motivates people more to take their bike instead of the car.

After half an hour we arrive in the dunes. We are not the only one who had this idea, because it is loaded with people. I am so proud of all these people, going out there and being active! After a while I notice a couple that is walking ahead of us. They are both really overweight and they are having a hard time walking. I get really sad when I see this and I don’t understand why these people let this happen. I’m glad to say that the number of people with obesity has dropped tremendously over the last few years. Finally people are waking up and they start realizing that living a healthy lifestyle is important. People really care more about their health today than they did before. It is a good sign that the people we saw in the dunes were being active, so I just hope they are waking up as well.

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After we arrived home from the dunes, it was time to make dinner. I always try to weigh and measure my foods as precisely as possible to prevent food waste. In this bad economy we have to look after our money, and throwing away food is a big waste of money if you ask me! For dinner we have salmon, lots of grilled veggies and brown rice. After an active day like today a balanced meal with enough nutrients is important for our body to recover.

I know this stuff because I read about health and food a lot. There are many interesting books, magazines and blogs that write about a healthy lifestyle. I also started my own blog about health, food and sports a few months back. It keeps me motivated and I can motivate other people with it too.

After dinner we sit on the couch and go watch the news. On the news there is an item about the sugar tax discussion. I followed this discussion, because I really agree with the fact that there should be a tax on sugar products. It is just as bad for you as cigarettes. In this news item they have the good news that the sugar tax is finally becoming a fact! I am extremely happy with this news and I hope that because of this tax, people think twice before buying something that is loaded with sugar. What a perfect ending of a perfect day.

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Strategic advice For Coca-Cola Netherlands to survive in a world that is described in this scenario, some big changes are needed. In this scenario the majority of the people is aware of the health risks of eating and drinking junk food and they no longer accept it. The result for Coca-Cola Netherlands would be a big decrease in sales. Because of this decrease, the price per Coca-Cola bottle has raised in order to increase the total revenue. Also the sugar tax is becoming a fact, which has big consequences for Coca-Cola Netherlands. Since Coca-Cola Netherlands is a SBU (Strategic Business Unit) and part of the Coca-Cola Company, a strategic advice will be given.

I like to note that in my opinion this scenario is very realistic. I believe this because a lot of these developments are happening already. More and more consumers are becoming aware of their eating and drinking behaviour and decide to change this in order to improve their health. Also the discussion about the sugar tax is in progress, although this is mainly happening is the U.S. The biggest insecurity in this scenario is the economy, not so much the mind-set of the consumers, because it is harder to conclude which way this is going.

This scenario might not look good for Coca-Cola, but it is a positive scenario for the health of the consumer and fighting obesity. I will advise Coca-Cola Netherlands how to survive in this possible future scenario.

Strategic advice Transparency Another advice for Coca-Cola Netherlands would be to focus more on transparency.

Transparency is important in this scenario. Although Coca-Cola is trying to be more transparent about their products already, this is mainly focused on the amount of calories the products have. In this scenario the problem is not the amount of calories, but the amount of sugar and other additives. The people who live in this world are well informed and well aware about the risks of sugar and chemical additives. The consumers no longer want to be ‘fooled’. This only creates a bigger aversion against Coca-Cola products. Honesty and transparency about the products is appreciated. To be more transparent, it could be wisely to reveal your ‘secret’ ingredient which gives the Coca-Cola it unique taste.

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Marketing innovations Image I think, in this scenario, it is important for Coca-Cola Netherlands to focus on their image.

The economy is not well enough to start thinking about new product lines, so you have to work with what you have. Coca-Cola is already working towards a ‘greener’ image with their new product ‘Coca Cola Life’ and the PlantBottle. I think they should continue with this and apply this green image on the complete brand. To come back to my previous advice about being transparent, all the consumers know is that the secret ingredient of Coca-Cola is made of ‘plant extracts’. Plants and herbs are natural products and by revealing these extracts, you could give the Coca-Cola products a more natural and greener image.

• Innovation grade: this is an incremental change, in which Coca-Cola Netherlands has to work with what they have. This advice has a medium risk, because this could mean that the other (not green image) products would sell even less. In this scenario, revealing the secret ingredient would have a low risk because there is a big need for transparency.

Sales locations Another positive marketing innovation would be to search for new sales locations. The revenue of Coca-Cola Netherlands mainly comes from the fast food chains. In this scenario the fast food chains are way less successful. This would result in big a sales decreasing for Coca-Cola Netherlands. Also the big supermarket chains are less popular in this scenario, but the consumer prefers to go to cheaper supermarkets such as Lidl and Aldi. Starting a cooperation with these supermarket chains could have a positive effect on your sales.

• Innovation grade: this would also be an incremental change, because it does not result in a very big change for Coca-Cola or their products. Because of that this advice has a low risk, as long as this supermarket chains agree on the cooperation.

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