2021 State of the Market Report: Tucson & Southern Arizona

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2021 State of the Market Report TUCSON AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA

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2021 At a Glance — Tucson Closed Sales

Median List Price

Sold Price v List Price

New Listings

Median Sale Price

Average Days on Market

Properties Under Contract

Average Monthly Payment*

Months of Inventory

20,531

$299,000

23,382

99%

$300,000

22,351

17

$1,217.00

0.9

A Record Sales Year Closed residential sales increased 4.1% over 2020, setting the pace for the highest sales year in a decade. In fact, annual sales have almost doubled from 2010. Historically low mortgage interest rates and pandemic-spurred demand for housing had buyers scurrying for home purchases while navigating through the challenges of a very limited supply of listings.

Closed Residential Sales — Tucson Metro 25,000

20,000

15,000

12,737

13,348

2011

2012

14,028

16,910

17,018

17,225

2016

2017

2018

18,048

19,729

20,531

14,709 13,075

11,008

10,000

5,000

0

2010

2013

2014

2015

2019

2020

2021

Closed Sales

Tucson

Green Valley

Sahuarita

Sierra Vista

Phoenix

2020

19,729

2,243

819

1,991

100,452

2021

20,531

2,436

888

2,252

104,988

% change

+4.1%

+8.6%

+8.4%

+13.1%

+4.5%

Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ and ARMLS on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Median list price based on original list price of sold homes. *Average monthly payment are based on a 5% down payment on a median priced home at December 2021 interest rate. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

2021 At a Glance — Southern Arizona Green Valley

Sahuarita

Sierra Vista

Closed Sales

Closed Sales

Closed Sales

Properties Under Contract

Properties Under Contract

Properties Under Contract

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory

Median Sold Price

Median Sold Price

Median Sold Price

2,436

888

2,635

2,252

967

1.1

2,426

1.5

$279,900

1.1

$299,900

$225,000

Demand is High When an offer is accepted on a listing, the property goes “under contract.” Under contract is a leading indicator to closed sales. 2021 continued the very strong demand from buyers set in 2020, with properties going under contract almost 1% higher than 2020, despite inventory limitations, heavy competition from other buyers, and multiple offer situations.

Residential Properties Under Contract — Tucson Metro % change vs Prior Year

# Properties Under Contract

25,000 28.8% 20,000

16,475

15,000

18,473

20,178 17,816

16,160

17,041

22,351

15%

6.6%

4.8%

10%

5.7% 0.9%

0% -10%

-9.3% 2013

5% -5%

-3.6%

2012

30% 20%

0.0%

2011

35% 25%

11.0% 5.5%

5,000

22,563

18,173

12.1%

10,000

0

17,048

21,155

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Properties Under Contract

Tucson

Green Valley

Sahuarita

Sierra Vista

Phoenix

2020

22,351

2,485

948

—

107,037

2021

22,563

2,635

967

2,426

107,949

% change

+0.9%

+6.0%

+2.0%

—

+0.8%

-15%

Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ and ARMLS on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. 2020 Properties Under Contract data unavailable for Sierra Vista. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Listing Inventory Challenges There just wasn’t much in the way of active listings sitting in inventory for buyers to choose from. Listings would go under contract typically within days of hitting the market. In Tucson, in a “normal” market you could expect to see an average of 5,000–6,000 listings at any given time. In 2021, listing inventory was down to as low as around 800, and ended the year at 1,559.

Residential Active Listing Inventory — Tucson Metro

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000

Dec 2021 1,559

3,000 Trendline

2,000 1,000

Sep 21

Apr 21

Nov 20

Jun 20

Jan 20

Aug 19

Mar 19

Oct 18

May 18

Dec 17

Jul 17

Feb 17

Sep 16

Apr 16

Nov 15

Jun 15

Jan 15

Aug 14

Mar 14

Oct 13

May 13

Dec 12

Jul 12

Feb 12

Sep 11

Apr 11

Nov 10

Jun 10

Jan 10

0

New Listings Came on the Market Consistently While the inventory of homes for sale hit new record lows in 2021, the number of new listings coming on the market has been quite consistent over the last 12 years. The difference in 2021 is that those homes sold very quickly, many times within days, and therefore were unavailable for other buyers to purchase.

35,000

New Listings — Tucson Metro

33,071 27,119

30,000

23,366

25,000

25,164

22,815

21,698

23,363

24,164

24,567

2014

2015

24,456

24,292

23,824

23,097

22,596

2017

2018

2019

2020

23,382

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2016

2021

Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Listings Selling Immediately On average, homes went under contract in 17 days in 2021, a record. As seen in this trend chart, this is drastically lower than previously experienced, and is reflective of the very fast pace of the real estate market in 2021. We expect the pace to moderate somewhat in 2022, which will help buyers.

Avg Days on Market — Tucson

140 112

120

119

121

102

100

80

80

64

60

66

59

67

57

48

40

42

39 30

17

20 0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Home Prices Increase at Break-Neck Pace The combination of very strong demand and very limited supply of homes for sale combined to increase median home sale prices in Tucson 20.5% from 2020. Historically, home prices tend to appreciate in the 3–5% range annual, so this was a significant increase. We do not expect this year over year appreciation rate to continue and expect it will settle into more historic levels.

Residential Median Sold Price — Tucson Metro

$400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000

Dec 2015 $169,000

Dec 2013 $157,900

Dec 2010 $139,700

$150,000 $100,000

Dec 2011 $120,000

$50,000 0

Dec 2012 $148,000

Dec 2017 $203,000

Dec 2014 $165,000

Dec 2021 $349,082 Dec 2019 $232,000

Dec 2020 $274,579

Trendline

Dec 2016 $178,000

Dec 2018 $205,000

Dec 2010 2 Dec 011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2020 Dec 2021

Median Sold Price

Tucson

Green Valley

Sahuarita

Sierra Vista

Phoenix

2020

$249,000

$232,013

$245,000

$199,700

$315,900

2021

$300,000

$279,900

$299,900

$225,000

$396,700

% change

+20.5%

+20.6%

+22.4%

+12.7%

+25.6%

Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ and ARMLS on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Mortgage Rates At Historic Lows Mortgage rates plummeted to new lows in 2021, fueling a record sales year and high buyer demand. It also led to more refinances, which may prompt some homeowners to stay longer in their homes due to a very low mortgage interest rate. Rates have recently risen off their lows but are still very attractive.

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Source: FreddieMac.com 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Monthly Home Payments See An Uptick Low mortgage rates in 2020 were enough to offset home sales price increases, keeping monthly home payments relatively unchanged. In 2021 however, we see an upward trend in monthly payments due to 20% plus home sales price gains and slightly higher interest rates. Relatively speaking, monthly payments remain very competitive against rising rental rates, and against home payments in other parts of the country.

Monthly Home Payment — Tucson Metro $1,600 $1,400

Dec 2021 $1,416.11

Dec 2020 $1,055.25

$1,200

Trendline

$1,000 $800

Dec 2019 $1,045.34

$600 $400 $200

Sep 21

May 21

Jan 21

Sep 20

May 20

Jan 20

Sep 19

May 19

Jan 19

Sep 18

May 18

Jan 18

Sep 17

May 17

Jan 17

Sep 16

May 16

Jan 16

Sep 15

May 15

Jan 15

Sep 14

May 14

Jan 14

Sep 13

May 13

Jan 13

Sep 12

May 12

Jan 12

$0

Long Realty Company Mortgage rates based on information obtained from FreddieMac.com. Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Monthly payments are based on a 5% down payment on a median priced home. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Very Strong Seller’s Market Months of Inventory reflects the relationship between closed sales and active listing inventory. Basically, it measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current sales pace. 6.0 months is considered a balanced market, and less than 6.0 a seller’s market. At one point in 2021 there was only 2 weeks of inventory, and the year ended with 0.9 months — a very strong seller’s market.

Months of Inventory — Tucson Metro Buyer’s Market

12 10 8

Seller’s Market

6 Dec 2021 0.9 Mar 2021 0.4

4 2

Sep 21

Apr 21

Nov 20

Jan 20

Jun 20

Sep 19

Aug 19

Mar 19

Oct 18

May 18

Dec 17

Jul 17

Feb 17

Sep 16

Apr 16

Nov 15

Jun 15

Jan 15

Aug 14

Mar 14

Oct 13

May 13

Dec 12

Jul 12

Feb 12

Sep 11

Apr 11

Nov 10

Jun 10

Jan 10

0

New Construction Sales Lag Strong buyer demand sparked permits on new construction to increase 17.7% in 2021. Despite that increase in permit activity, new construction closed sales lagged slightly from 2020 due to supply change issues and other market factors. This has still left a gap in the marketplace, where the availability of new construction inventory is limited and not filling current buyer needs.

New Construction — Tucson Metro 6,000 5,104 5,000 4,000

4,337 3,495

3,526

3,000 2,000

3,697

2,768

3,494

3,268

1,000 0 2018

2019 Permits

2020

2021

Closed Sales

Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. New construction data based on information obtained from RLBrownReports/Bright Future Real Estate Research. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Luxury’s Leap The last two years have seen tremendous growth in the luxury home market in Tucson. Homes priced $800,000 and higher more than doubled in sales in 2021 from the year prior. Remote work, early retirement, shifts in what features people wanted in a home and the financial flexibility of the affluent had buyers on the move. Buyers at these price points can get a lot more home for the money when coming from high price point markets such as California.

Luxury Closed Sales — Tucson Metro

1,000

895

900 800 700 600 500

426

400 246

300 200

125

110

123

137

2012

2013

148

150

2014

2015

179

178

2016

2017

282

100 0

2010

2011

2018

2019

2020

2021

Land Sales With buyers desperately trying to find homes to purchase, more turned to purchasing land with the idea of building.

Land sales rose an impressive 72% in 2021.

Land Closed Sales — Tucson Metro

1,400

1,217 1,200 1,000 800

727

706

2018

2019

2020

637

600 400

716

338

376

423

439

461

2013

2014

2015

487

291

200 0 2010

2011

2012

2016

2017

2021

Long Realty Company Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 01/06/2022 using TrendGraphix software. Luxury data based on all residential properties priced $800,000 and above. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Consumer Trends Buyers Hedging Inflation by Locking in Lower Home Payment Now With inflation at 7% and at a 30 year high, it makes financial sense to purchase a home now at today’s low mortgage rates to lock in a fixed monthly payment. As the costs of good and services continues to rise with inflation, consumers can at least hedge against future inflation with a fixed home payment.

Higher Rents Driving Interest in Home Purchases Rents in Arizona increased 29% year over year, and in Tucson increased 23.3%. As rental rates continue to climb, more renters will look to buy. According to Apartment List, rental rates for a 2-bedroom apartment in Tucson are now $1,350, while monthly payment on a median priced home is $1,416, only a $66 per month difference.

Demographic and Lifestyle Drivers Millennials continue to show interest in purchasing a home, and slightly higher inventory may mean more choices and new opportunities for first time homebuyers. People continue to migrate to Arizona for greater value on home purchases, lower property tax base, attractive weather and lifestyle, and being enabled by remote work opportunities. Baby boomers continue to take advantage of retirement home purchases, even if still preretirement.

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Contact me for more information.

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Selling your home? Whatever your situation we have the solution. Check out our menu of Selling Options:

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Offering You the Most Choices to Sell Your Home.

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2022 Forecast A Strong Yet Normalizing Real Estate Market Tapping into our 96 years of experience, we believe 2022 will be a strong year for real estate, and at the same time leveling to more normal market trends. In addition to national economists, we polled our 1,400 Long Realty agents across Arizona for their projections for 2022.

Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast to Rise With inflation at 30-year highs, economists expect Federal Reserve policies to combat inflation will in turn increase mortgage rates. Rising rates and recent home price gains, along with inflation on other goods & services, may temper buyer activity slightly, though rates should remain attractive enough to not significantly slow buying activity. In the short term, rising rates can create urgency for buyers.

Home Prices Appreciate, at a More Normal Rate Long Realty agents project that home sale prices will rise 1–5% in 2022, which is in line with national forecasts.

Of course, this can vary by neighborhood and price point. Strong sales and a continued shortage of listing inventory will keep prices growing, yet not at the torrid rate of 2021.

Home Sales Projected to Continue at Strong Pace The majority of Long Realty agents project that home sales will remain at consistent levels with 2020 or increase 1–5%. Locking in a monthly payment at today’s rates can help serve to offset future inflation for consumers.

Listing Inventory to Rise Slightly Slow new construction starts, homeowners staying in their homes after refinancing, the absence of a rise in foreclosures coupled with strong buyer demand, means listing inventory will continued to be in short supply.

The Long Realty survey has agents predicting that listing inventory will rise slightly 1–5% from 2021 levels.

Strong Seller’s Market Shifts to Seller’s Market Strong home sales and slightly higher listing inventory means that a seller’s market will continue, just not as severe as 2021. This will continue to present ideal conditions for sellers, while affording buyers a chance to find a home with more options and slightly less competition.

2022

HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

What does the coming year hold for the housing market?

Here’s what experts project for 2022.

%

MORTGAGE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO RISE

Mortgage rates are projected to rise in 2022, yet still remain historically low.

RATES BY DECADE Historic Rate

Average 2022 Projection 12.7%

2022 PROJECTED RATES Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA NAR

$

8.86%

8.12% 6.29%

3.3% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5%

4.09%

3.5%

Today 1970s

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

2022

HOME PRICES FORECAST TO APPRECIATE

Home prices will also keep rising thanks to continued low housing supply and high buyer demand.

7.4%

7.0%

Average of All Forecasts: 5.1% 5.1%

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac

MBA

5.1%

HPES

3.0%

2.8%

Zelman

NAR

HOME SALES PROJECTED TO BE STRONG Home sales are expected to perform well again in 2022 as more people move to meet their changing needs.

HOME SALES FORECASTS Home Sales in Millions 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast

Forecast from

7.5 7.3

7.0 6.5

6.8

6.5

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.9

6.0 5.5 5.0

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac

NAR

MBA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA, NAR, Pulsenomics, Zelman

Contact me for more information about what these trends mean to you.

Long Realty Company Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.