When you know homeiswhere theheartis The ChronicleProperty DRURY August2022
Page 3 Page 5 Page 8 Page 9 PagePage 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 24 Page 25 CONTENTS LetterfromBrentWorthington LJHHomeSmartNewsLetter DruryListings DruryFeatureProperty RentExchange PropertyManagementNewsletter REINZ MonthlyPropertyReport(link) REINZ MonthlyHousePriceIndex&Data(link) REINZ-TonyAlexanderSurvey&Extra TheInsider–LoanMarketUpdate(withlinks) MeetyourAgent–LinaRoban DRURY 11
propertymarketseesfirsthomebuyersreturn
Nationalmedianpropertypricescontinuetocomedownsincetheirpeakin November2021,andJulywasthefirstmonthsince2011thatwesawthe annualmedianpricedecreasenationally.
ThisisaccordingtothelatestfiguresfromtheRealEstateInstituteofNew Zealand(REINZ),whichshowedthemedianpricesforresidentialproperty decreased1.8percentannually,from$825,000inJuly2021to$810,000inJuly 2022.TheREINZHousePriceIndex(HPI),whichmeasurethechangingvalueof residentialpropertyacrossNewZealand,alsorecordedanannualfallof2.9 percentinJuly,whichisthefirsttimetheHPIhasexperiencedanannualfall in11
Sinceyears.thepropertypricepeaklastNovember,theHPIhasfallenabouteight percent.Toputthisincontext,thenationalHPIsuggestshousepricesare backtolevelslastseeninMay2021. However,propertiesarestillcomingtomarket,andthosethatarepricedto thecurrentmarketareselling,accordingtoREINZCEOJenBaird.
DRURY August2022 ChangingHi,
“Agentsacrosstheregionsreportvendorsareadaptingtheirsalesstrategy tohittherightchordinthemarketrightnow.Whilethesalesprocessis takinglonger,withtherightmarketingandlocalknowledge,thereare seriousbuyersreadytomakeanoffer,”Bairdsaid.
reports“Whilethemarkethasbeendominatedbyowneroccupiers,suggestfirsthomebuyers(andinsomeareasinvestorstoo)arebeginningtore-emerge—increasingthebuyerpoolagain.”continuedover... BrentWorthingtonPrincipalLJHookerDrury&RentExchangePropertyManagementT092947500M0292965362
DRURY August2022
ofrealestateagentsbyeconomistTonyAlexander,82 percentofagentssaidthatbuyerswereconcernedabouthigherinterest rates.WhilepeoplearefixatedonthemediaattentionoftheReserveBankraising itscashrateandpeopleseeingtheirmortgageratesjumpastheirfixedrate changes,Alexandersaidthepeoplethisimpactsalreadyownsahouseand themajorityareunlikelytobebuyersanytimesoon.
“Becausethecosttobanksofborrowingmoneytolendfixedisfalling. “Whyarethosewholesaleratesfalling(sofardown0.7percentorsofrom Junepeaks)?Becausetheworld’smarketsarelookingthroughthecentral bankincreasesintheir24hourinterestratestoreductionstocomenextyear inresponsetoslowingworldgrowthifnotrecession,andpotentiallyrapidly fallinginflationnextyear.”
“Whyaretheseratesfalling?”Alexanderasked.
Ifthistrendcontinues,Alexandersaidthoughtsonlowermortgagerateswill likelybealotstrongercomemid-Octoberthantheyarenow. Asalways,wetrustyouenjoythismonth'spublication. only thatmattersisyours"
result
Incontinued...arecentsurvey
Brent LJPrincipalWorthingtonHookerDrury&RentExchangePropertyManagement T 092947500 M0292965362 "Wherethe
Alexanderpointsoutthatforcurrentbuyers,fixedmortgagerateshave alreadystartedtodecrease,rangingfrom0.2percentto0.4percentsincethe peakinJune.
Inthisguideweexplainwhyspringisagreattimeto putyourpropertyonthemarket,andweexplore specificstrategiesforgettingyourhouseready.
Spring is an excellent time to sell your property for a variety of reasons. As the seller, you’ll want to prepare your home in the right way, as this gives you the best chance of attracting great buyers, achieving a higher sales price, and, ultimately, locking in a successful sale.
2.Increasecurbappeal Firstimpressionscountwhenitcomestobuyers’ opinions,somakeyourexteriorsstandout.Tidyup yourfrontandbackgardenbyclearingawayany clutterfromyourfrontyard.Useapressurewasherto hosedowndrivewaysandgardenpathwaysand makesureyouremoveanyoilstains.Rakeaway deadleaves,prunedeadwintergrowth,anddoa thoroughweeding.Haveyourroofandgutters cleanedbyprofessionals.Removeanylargebushes andtrimawaytreebranchestocleartheexterior viewforprospectivebuyers. Trimyourlawnedgesforacleanandorderlylook.Fix dead,bald,oryellowinglawnpatchesbyseedingand fertilisingthesespots.Addingsmallimprovements likemulchcanmakeabigdifferencewhilereducing theneedforongoingweeding.Getridofany shabby-lookingoutdooritemslikerustingdeckchairs andcreakingswingsets. Considerrepaintingfences,exteriorwalls,andthe letterbox.Forapopofcolour,addflowersandgreen shrubberytoyourfrontgarden.Don’tforgettofertilise yourlawnandgardenbedsforvibrantspringtime growth.Makeanimpactbyintroducingstatement potsandplantstoyourentrance.Remembertokeep upwithwateringtokeepyourlawn,flowersandtrees lookingtheirbest.
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Guidetopreparingyourhomeforthespringsellingseason
ljhooker.co.nz bybookingafreepropertyappraisal withyourlocalrealestateexpert.
Whyspringisanidealtimetosell PropertysellersinNewZealandoftenholdoffuntil springtolisttheirproperty.Oneofthereasonsisthe sunnierweatherandblossominggardens;making propertieslookmoreappealingandmotivatebuyers togetoutandaboutafterthecold,rainymonths. Unsurprisingly,buyerstendtobemoreinclinedto attendopenhouseswhentheweatherissunnyand mild,ratherthanovercastandrainy.
Spring’slongerdaylighthours,alongwithpeople wantingtomoveinbeforetheChristmasholiday period(andnewschoolyear)arealsodriving factors.Hencethemarkettendstoseeanupliftin spring.Inturn,sellersrecognisemorebuyersleadto increasedcompetition,higherprices,andpossiblya quickersalefortheirproperty.
Strategiesforreadyingyourhometosellin spring Eventhoughsalesoutcomestendtobestrongerin spring,moresellersandalargernumberof propertiesmeanmorecompetitionforyourproperty. Thismeansyou’llstillneedtohaveafocused strategytoboostyourchancesofagreatsale outcome.Ideallythisstrategywillincludeproperty stagingandpresentation.Followthesetipsto maximiseyourproperty’sappealtobuyers.
1.Springclean Startwithacompletespringcleantogetyourhouse readyforthesale.Cleanglassdoorsandwindows fromtheoutsideandinside.Removecobwebsand giveeverythingagooddustingandvacuum.Wash curtainsanddustblinds,lighting,andotherfixtures. Cleanandpolishdoorknobs,mirrors,switches,taps, andfittings. Haveyourcarpetsprofessionallysteamcleaned. Wipedowncupboardsandallexteriorandinterior surfaceslikeclosetdoorsaswellasshelvesand drawers.Payparticularattentiontokitchensand bathrooms,andhaveyourtilesandgroutingcleaned byexpertsifnecessary.
Youcanaddbasictouchesyourself,suchas updatingoldtowels,rugs,andlinenwithnewones. Drawbacktheblindstoletinnaturallightandadd freshbouquetsofflowers.Duringinspections,the agentmightrecommendaddedelementslike
Decluttering,cleaning,anddepersonalisationare essentialstrategiestoapply,alongwithworking withanexperiencedrealestateagent.
6.Workwithanexpert
Achievingasuccessfulsaleinspring Springisapreferredtimetosellandbuy,andasa seller,youcouldenhanceyourchancesofgettinga greatpriceandachievingafastersaleby preparingyourpropertyintherightway.
ljhooker.co.nz relaxingmusicandpleasingaromaswithbaking cookiesandfreshlybrewedcoffee.
Arealestateagentworkscloselywithyouatevery stepofyoursale,ensuringyou’restagingand preparingyourpropertycorrectly.Theycancheck you’reworkingoffanaccuratevalueforyourhome andassistwithyourcontractsandpaperwork.
So,whatexactlydoesstaginginvolve?Youcould rentfurniture,artwork,andadditionalaccessoriesto accentuateyourproperty’stopfeatures.Thesecan beusedtorepurposerooms-suchasturningan extrabedroomintoanurseryorahomeofficedependingonyourtargetdemographic.
Springisabusytimeforbothbuyersandsellers, andyouragentcanhelpmakeyourpropertystand outandsuccessfullymarketittoyourtarget demographic.Inaddition,youcouldhavethefull confidencethatit’strulytherighttimetosellifyou havethehelpofarealestateexpertwhoknows yourlocalmarket,likeHarveys’highlyexperienced agents.
4.Accessorisetheinterior Stagingyourpropertyallowsyoutotargetspecific demographicsandpossiblyachieveabetterprice. Anexperiencedrealestateagentisyourbest adviserwhenitcomestostaging.He/shecan pinpointthespecialfeaturesandguideyouonhow tohighlightthesewithstaging.
5.Doanynecessaryrepairsandmaintenance
Takeanobjectivelookatyourinteriorsandnote anyflaws,defects,ordamage.Repairleakytaps, loosedoorknobs,andfaultylightswitches.Give damagedwallsafreshcoatofpaintandconsider havingcarpetstainsremovedbyprofessionals.If youhavetimberflooring,thinkabouthavingthem restrained.
3.Removepersonalitems
Taketheopportunitytodeclutteryourhouseby throwingawayordonatinganythingyou’renot using.Removeasmanypersonaleffectsfromyour propertyaspossible.Declutteringmakesyour interiorsandstoragespaceslookmorespacious, anddepersonalisingyourhomeprovidespotential buyerswithablankcanvastoimaginethehouse as Removetheirs.familyphotos,souvenirs,andaccolades. Considerputtingoversized,worn-looking,or clashingfurniturepiecesintostorage.Anythingyou leave,likeclothinghanginginyourclosetandplates incupboards,shouldbeingoodconditionandtidily arranged.
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LJHooker 092947500 https://drury.ljhooker.co.nz/ 91Beatty Road,Pukekohe NZ §8 b7 �uNuM1TEDPOTENTIAL WITH DEVELOPMENT LAND 2379m2 Onthemarketforthefirsttimein43years.The630m2 (moreorless)dwellingissetona2,379m2... 87Beatty Road,Pukekohe NZ §5 b4 �2 Perfect Home and Income The262m2 (moreorless) maindwellingissetona 949m2site (moreorless)andofferstheperfect... 30 Franklyne Road, Otara NZ §3 bl �1 URGENT SALE-MAKE AN OFFER Currentlytenanted,this985m2site (moreorless)isa developersdream.Zoned Residential (9D),re... 1 Luke Place, Otara NZ §S b2 �2 URGENT SALE-MAKE AN OFFER * Prominentsite * Prime Location * Hugedevelopmentpotential 41Tribute Loop,Takanini NZ §3 b2 �1 TREASUREON TRIBUTE TBA OurListings 25th,Aug2022 ForSale $2,850,000 View ByAppointment Andrew Fisher0275425500 andrew.fisher@ljhooker.co.nz ForSale PriceBy Negotiation View ByAppointment Andrew Fisher0275425500 andrew.fisher@ljhooker.co.nz ForSaleBy Negotiation View ByAppointment Lina Roban021022 88521 lina.rob@ljhooker.co.nz ForSale PriceBy Negotiation View ByAppointment Amit Kolkur 0277766 055 amit.kolkur@ljhooker.co.nz ForAuction AuctionWednesdaySeptember21st, 06:00PM View SundayAugust 28th,01:15PM 02:00PM,Sunday September4th,0l:15PM Nav Johnson0278272213 nav.johnson@ljhooker.co.nz 1/233 GreatSouth RoadDrury NZ2113 drury@ljhooker.co.nz Drury
FeatureProperty
Perfectly positioned for professional couples, first home buyers, investors, downsizers and smaller families, this six-year-old home offers all the conveniences one expects from a modern 'lock up and Viewing'sleave'.the only way to fully appreciate all the features this extremely well-designed home offers: the modern kitchen will surely satisfy the most discerning cooks in the family while the openplandining/familyroomoffersseamlessindoor/outdoorflowtotheprivatebackyard(ideal for outdoor entertaining or just lazing away those sunny Sundays) a formal lounge, two double bedrooms, a generously sized single bedroom, two bathrooms, plentiful storage, quality chattels throughoutandalargesinglegaragewithinternalentrytothedwelling.Fullyfenced,thegrounds ensure minimal care while also offering and extremely safe and secure haven for children and Commutingpets.
to Auckland's CBD takes approximately twenty-five minutes while the International and Domestic Airports are an easy fifteen-minute drive outside peak commuting times, the TakaniniTrainStationisconvenientlylocated1kmawaywhilelocalchilddaycarecentres,primary schoolsandcollegesofferconveniencetoparentswithchildren.
Comprehensive Property Report
TobeAuctioned:Wednesday21stSeptember2022at6:00pm, InRooms,LJHookerDrury1/233GreatSouthRoad,Drury(unlesssoldprior) DRURY
Additional local features include close proximity to numerous Sports Parks, Wattle Downs Golf Course, Manukau City and the Westfield shopping complex, Manukau Institute of Technology, Middlemore Hospital, superb local cafes and restaurants along with the shopping districts of TakaniniandManurewa.
TREASUREONTRIBUTE
2. THEPROPERTY Comprehensive Property Report DRURY Address: 41TributeLoop,Takanini LegalDescription: FloorArea: 115sqm(moreorless) LandArea: 184sqm(moreorless) ACCValuation: $790,000 ACCRates: $2073.16 Bedrooms: 3(2double,1singe) Bathrooms: 2(includesensuite) Garaging: 1(Internalaccess) Chattelsinclude: Blinds,FixedFloorCoverings,GarageDoorOpener,HeatedTowelRail,Light Fittings,Rangehood,Stove,WasteDisposalUnit,HeatPump 0278NavContactJohnson272213 Wed,Auction21stSepat 6:00pm(unlesssoldprior) View OpenByHomeorByAppointment Lot21plus1/44Lot92DP497769ID735770
Property Management OnthefollowingpagesyouwillfindourlatestPropertyManagement Newsletter. Pleasedon ’thesitatetocontactDebbieHarrisonwhocanablyassistyouwith anyPropertyManagementissuesyoumayhaveorifyouhaveanyquestions aboutanythingintheNewsletterorpropertymanagementingeneral. Email: Phone:debbie.harrison@ljhooker.co.nz021303864
TenancyServiceshaspartneredwithConsumerProtectiontoraisetheawarenessofthe deadlypossibilitieswhenyoungchildrengettangledinloosecords. (Thecontentsofthispiecemaybedistressingto somereaders.)
InMarch2021whenthecoronerreleasedherreport, shesaidtherehadbeensomeeffortstoeducatethe public,“butthoseefforts,whilelaudable,arealonenot sufficienttoprotectNewZealanders.”
MBIEhasstartedworkingwithPlunketandSafeKids toprovideclearermessagingtoparentsand caregivers.IthasalsoworkedwithTheWarehouse andBunningstosourcecleatsthatwillbeavailable instoreinSeptember.
"AndtheCoroner'sreportactuallyhadthreemain recommendations.Thefirstwasregulation,whichwe areactivelylookinginto,andwearepreparingto brieftheMinisterimminentlyonthebestoptions
"Wehaveacommission,someindependent economicresearchwhichhasgivenusmore information,somefacts,dataandstatisticsaboutthe issue,”GallaghertoldNewsHub.
Thegovernmentagencysaysinthetimeittakestofill thekettlewithwater,asmallchildcangethurtor eventstrangledinacordfromablindorrollershade ifit’snotsecurelytidiedawayoutofreach.
TenancyServicesraisesawarenessofthedangersofloosecords
InearlyJulytheMinistryofBusiness,Innovationand Employment(MBIE)deniedithadstalledonmaking decisionsonthismatter,anditsnationalmanagerof consumerservicesSimonGallaghersaidtheagency isworkingonseveralmeasurestoaddressthisissue.
"Secondly,there.theCoronersaidparentaleducationis needed,andthirdly,thatremediationactivityshould actuallyoccur."
MorethanayearlaterafterBorrowdale’sreport,which calledforactiontopreventmore“avoidabledeaths” wasrelease,littlehadbeendone.
TenancyServicesrecommendslandlordsand propertymanagerstostartbyidentifyinganyblinds orcurtainswithlongorloopedcordsthatarewithin achild’sreach,ornearfurnituretheycanclimbon. Itisthenadvisedtheseblindsarereplacedor removed,useatensiondevicetokeepcordssafe,or retrofitcordstomakethemsaferandoutofreach fromchildren.
ljhooker.co.nz
CoronerMary-AnneBorrowdalewarnedaboutthe dangersoftheseloosecordsafterherinvestigationof theatrociousdeathofatoddlerwhowasstrangled bytheinnercordsofaromanblindin2018. Since2009,thecoronerfoundtherehadbeenfive otherchildrenwhohaddiedafterbeingentangledin romanblindcordsandonewhowastangledina rollerblindcord.
“Youcangettensiondevices(alsoknownas"cord tensioners"or“cordcleats”)fromhardwareor windowfurnishingstores.Thisisaminorchangethat canbepurchasedforasmallcostandmakesa greatdifferencetowardssaferhomesforchildren,” TenancyServices’websitesays.
FollowingthisannouncementfromGallagherwas whenTenancyServices(anMBIEdepartment) releasedadviceabouthowtokeepchildrensafe aroundblindsandwindowshadeswithcords.
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Howtoencouragetenantstorenewtheirlease
Top5reasonstenantsmove
3.Maintenanceissues
1.Incentivisetenantstorenewtheirlease
tenantsmove,butthesmallthingsthatlandlordscandoinanefforttomakerenewinga rentalleaseanobrainer.
1.Cannotaffordtherent
5.Changingcircumstances
Arenteroftenmovesoutwhentheyarenolonger abletocovertheexpenseofrent.Beitthroughjob lossorasuddenincreaseinexpensesdueto medicalissuesforexample,therentermay suddenlyexperiencepoorcashflow.Throughno faultofthelandlord,therenterhastomoveoutin ordertofindhousingthatismoreaffordable.
Keepingqualitytenantsshouldbeapriority, particularlyifyourcurrenttenantslookafteryour propertywell,payrentontimeandarenot unrealisticallydemanding.Inthiscase,perhaps youcouldagreetonotincreaserentifaleaseis renewed.Thiscouldbeespeciallyvaluabletoyour tenantsifrentshavebeengoingupelsewhere aroundthesuburb.Ifyouraiseyourrentaswell, thenthey’regoingtostartlookingatwhatelseis availableand,iftheyleave,itprobablywasn’t worthit.
Manyrentersrelocatewhenthemarketisdeemed tobearenter’smarket.Thisisagoodtimefor renterstosearchfornewapartmentsorhouses,as arenter’smarketsuggeststhattherearemore placesavailablethanthereisdemand.Therefore,a tenantmaymoveiftheyfindalargerpropertyor onewithbetteramenitiesforalowerpricethantheir currentresidence.
Findingnewtenantscanbeatime-consumingandcostlyexerciseforlandlordsand propertymanagers.Thatiswhyitisimportanttounderstandnotonlythereasonswhy
2.Jobchangeorrelocation
Intheeventofmarriage,divorceorseparation, tenantsmayneedtomove.Thischangeinlife circumstancesmaynecessitateapropertyofa differentsizeorjustanopportunitytostartfresh. Withthesechangesinpersonallifecomesaneed torelocateinordertosuitarenter’snewnormal.
Keywaystoensureyourtenantswantto stayinyourproperty
4.Renter’smarket
Ifarentalpropertyisnotbeingproperlylookedafter, atenantmaybecometiredoftheissuesandlook foralternativeaccommodation.Iftherenterhas beenontheballandalertedthelandlordofissues tonoavail,orevenifnumerousissuesarisewiththe infrastructureoftherental,atenantmaytireofthe constanthassleandwanttomoveout.
Whenarenterchangesjobsorisrelocatedintheir currentposition,theyalsomaybeforcedtomove outoftheirhome.Intheinstanceofchangingjobs, rentersmaybelookingtodownsizeorupsizein accordancewiththeirnewpaypacket. However,someonewhoneedstorelocatefortheir jobneedstomovesimplytobeclosertotheirnew job,forcingthemtomoveoutoftheirrental.
Workingwithyourpropertymanagertoensurea tradespersonregularlyvisitsyourpropertyisalsoa goodideaandwillhelpcreatetrustbetweenyou andyourtenants.
5.Addresscomplaintsquickly Aimingtoresolvecomplaintswithinaweek’stime isagoodbenchmarktoset.Foralandlordit leavesenoughtimetosortthroughtheproblem andforatenanttheshortturnaroundshowsthat thelandlordtakestheirwordsseriously.
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Forexample,ifyourinvestmentpropertyisahouse, plantflowersanddecorativeshrubsinthefront yard.Ifyourinvestmentisinanapartment,make suretheentrancewaytotheapartmentisclean andtidy.
4.Offeragraceperiodwhencollectingrent Iftherentalagreementstatesthatrentisdueon thefirstofthemonth,itiswithintheinterestofboth partiestohaveagraceperiodinplaceuntilat leastthefifthdayofthemonth.Whilelandlords canmakethetimeframelenient,theyshouldlet rentersknowthatpaymentafterthegraceperiod won’tbetolerated.
Everyonelikestocomehometoawell-maintained property,andtenantsarenodifferent.Spending timemakingsureyourpropertyhasgoodcurb appealwillgoalongwaytomakingtenantsproud tolivethere. Ifyourpropertyisahouse,professionallandscaping andgardeningmaintenancearetwoofthebest, mostcosteffectivewaystoincreasethevalueof theproperty,frombothfinancialandaesthetic viewpoints.
Havingagraceperiodaccommodatesfortimes whenlifecircumstancesgetinthewayand paymentneedstobedelayedafewdays,rather thanbeingdelayedforweeksonend.Allowingfor someleewaysendsthemessagetotenantsthat asalandlord,youaren’tstrict,justreasonablein yourexpectations.
3.Makeyourtenantsproudoftheproperty
Itiseasiertogetsomebodytocooperateiftheylike you,trustyou,andarehappytodealwithyou.With atypicalrentalleaseyouhaveayeartocreatea relationshipwithyourtenants.Thiscanbedone easily;makesureyouhandlerepairsand complaintsquicklyandcompetently,returncalls andmessagespromptlyand,ingeneral,benice andfriendly.Byquicklyresolvingproblemsthatare withinyourcontrolgoesalongwaytokeepingthem happyandensuringthemthatanyissuesthatneed ‘expert’attentionarebeingprioritised.
Ifalandlordearnsareputationofbeingquickto respondbothefficientlyandeffectively,whenit comestimetosignanewlease,renterswillhave totakeintoaccounthowwelltheyhavebeen treatedandconsiderif,shouldtheyleave,would anotherlandlordbesoaccommodating.
2.Createatrustingrelationship
Makesureyouhavearegularproperty maintenancescheduletohelpprevent‘issues’from arising.Ensureyouscheduleinregularcheckssuch astestingsmokealarms,replacingbatterieswhere needed,lookforleaksintheroof,aroundthewater heater,toiletsandsinks.
REPORT.PROPERTYMONTHLY Inc.ZealandNewofInstituteEstateReal-REINZ© 11 AUGUST 2022 Click here to view report
INDEXHOUSEMONTHLYPRICEREPORT. © REINZ - Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. 11 AUGUST 2022 Click here to view report
© REINZ - Real Estate Institute of New Zealand ISSN: 2703-2825 REINZ & TONY ALEXANDER REAL ESTATE SURVEY August 2022
Disclaimer: This report is intended for general information purposes only. This report and the information contained herein is under no circumstances intended to be used or considered as legal, financial or investment advice. The material in this report is obtained from various sources (including third parties) and REINZ does not warrant the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information provided in this report and does not accept liability for any omissions, inaccuracies or losses incurred, either directly or indirectly, by any person arising from or in connection with the supply, use or misuse of the whole or any part of this report. Any and all third party data or analysis in this report does not necessarily represent the views of REINZ. When referring to this report or any information contained herein, you must cite REINZ as the source of the information. REINZ reserves the right to request that you immediately withdraw from publication any document that fails to cite REINZ as the source. ISSN: 2703-2825 This publication is written by Tony Alexander, independent economist. Subscribe here https://forms.gle/qW9avCbaSiKcTnBQA To enquire about having me in as a speaker or for a webinar contact me at tony@tonyalexander.nz Back issues at www.tonyalexander.nz Tony’s Aim To help Kiwis make better decisions for their businesses, investments, home purchases, and people by writing about the economy in an easy to understand manner. Feel free to pass on to friends and clients wanting independent economic commentary. This survey gathers together the views of licensed real estate agents all over New Zealand regarding how they are seeing conditions in the residential property market in their areas at the moment. We asked them how activity levels are changing, what the views of first home buyers and investors are, and the factors which are affecting sentiment of those two large groups. CONTENTS • Are more or fewer peopel showing up at auctions? • Are more or fewer people attending open homes? • How do you feel prices are generally changing at the moment? • Do you think FOMO is in play for buyers? • Are you noticing more or fewer first home buyers in the market? • Are you noticing more or fewer inverstors in the market? • Are you receiving more or fewer enquiries from offshore? • Are property appraisal requests increasing or decreasing? • What are the main concerns of buyers? • Are investors bringing more or fewer properties to the market to sell than three months ago? • What factors appear to be motivating investor demand? • Regional results
3
HOW DO YOU FEEL PRICES ARE GENERALLY CHANGING AT THE MOMENT?
A net 66% of agents feel that prices for dwellings in their location are falling. This is little changed from the record net 72% seeing such falls late in June and tells us that price momentum in the market remains firmly downward for now.
ARE MORE OR FEWER PEOPLE ATTENDING OPEN HOMES?
Overall, the survey results show that the residential real estate market around New Zealand remains weak. However, the degree of that weakness is showing early signs of pulling back. It will be interesting to see how things develop in the second half of the year as mortgage rates potentially start edging lower.
Welcome to REINZ & Tony Alexander Real Estate Survey. Most results from this month’s survey are very close to those of the previous one. Agents still report the withdrawal of first home buyers and investors, weak attendance at auctions and open homes, falling prices, minimal offshore interest, and no FOMO. Buyers are highly concerned about high-interest rates and access to finance but show no rising worries about their employment. A net 69% of buyers are reported by agents to be displaying FOOP (fear of over-paying). But like a reasonable number of our measures, this gauge is becoming less negative.
ARE MORE OR FEWER PEOPLE SHOWING UP AT AUCTIONS?
A net 47% of licensed real estate agents responding to our monthly survey have reported that they are seeing fewer people attending open homes. This firmly negative result is reflective of the general stepping back of buyers from the residential real estate market since late last year when the credit crunch developed. However, like the result above for auction attendance, this measure is becoming less negative and has been doing so broadly since the peak of market weakness in February.
Of this month’s 541 respondents, a net 51% have reported that they are seeing fewer people showing up at auctions. Like most of our other indicators, this tells us quite clearly that the market is weak and in favour of buyers. But, like a handful of our other measures, this one is becoming less negative. That does not mean the market is improving — just that the intensity of new weakness appears to be easing off.
LITTLE CHANGE IN MARKET WEAKNESS
ARE YOU NOTICING MORE OR FEWER FIRST HOME BUYERS IN THE MARKET?
A net 60% of agents report that they are seeing fewer investors in the housing market as buyers. Unlike some of our other measures, there is no reducing negativity evident in this series and this is consistent with other surveys showing investors remain firmly on the sidelines. Their level of purchasing interest fell sharply after the 23 MArch 2021 tax announcement and has remained weak ever since.
For the third month in a row, only a gross 4% of real estate agents have reported that they see buyers worried about missing out on a purchase. FOMO essentially disappeared in February and is showing no signs of returning as yet.
FOMO = Fear of missing out
Real estate agents continue to report declining numbers of first home buyers in the market. But, at a net 36% reporting so this month, the result is the least negative since October just before the credit crunch hit. Like some of our other measures this gauge also suggests a turning in the extent of market weakness is close at hand.
4 DO YOU THINK FOMO IS IN PLAY FOR BUYERS?
ARE YOU RECEIVING MORE OR FEWER ENQUIRIES FROM OFFSHORE?
There continues to be less and less interest in New Zealand property coming from outside the country. A net 55% of agents this month have reported receiving fewer offshore enquiries. Note that even when net positive proportions of agents were reporting higher offshore interest, the extent of that interest was far weaker than the extent of non-interest reported since early in 2021. The New Zealand housing market in aggregate is minimally driven by people offshore.
ARE YOU NOTICING MORE OR FEWER INVESTORS IN THE MARKET?
5
The thing which most concerns home buyers are rising interest rates (reported by 82% of agents), followed closely by access to credit — 78%. A high 69% of agents report that buyers are worried about overpaying for their property. This FOOP reading (fear of overpaying) is down slightly from a peak of 73% in May.
Very few buyers now feel that there are not enough listings, and few are worried about their income.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OF BUYERS?
Few investors are strained by rising mortgage rates and the strong jobs market means those who might be in a negative cash flow position are still able to service the demands of their investment from their wage and salary income.
ARE INVESTORS
A net 13% of agents responding to our monthly survey have said that they are seeing fewer people coming forward for appraisals of their property. Perhaps the best way to interpret this is that the result is consistent with other evidence and economic fundamentals showing that there is no wave of distressed selling running through the residential real estate market during this downward leg of the Employmentcycle.
There is a firm downward trend in place since March in the proportion of real estate agents feeling that more investors are stepping forward to sell their properties.
is strong and very few people will find themselves paying a mortgage rate higher than the rate they had to prove to their bank they could service (the test interest rate) when they took their mortgage out some years earlier. BRINGING MORE OR FEWER PROPERTIES TO THE MARKET TO SELL THAN THREE MONTHS AGO?
ARE PROPERTY APPRAISAL REQUESTS INCREASING OR DECREASING?
In addition, with house prices falling, few people feel that it is a good time to sell and the slowing pace of increase in rents may reflect some investors who were looking at selling now placing their properties back in the rental pool.
A gross 48% of agents report that they are not seeing investor demand (the light blue line in the second graph below) and this proportion has been near this level since late last year. But, of those investors who are looking at making a purchase, the motivation of preparing for retirement is trending downward, while there is an upward trend in the proportion hopeful of finding a bargain. That bargain proportion now sits at 42% from 45% last month and 21% at the end of 2021.
6 WHAT FACTORS APPEAR TO BE MOTIVATING INVESTOR DEMAND?
A. # of responses B. Are property appraisal requests increasing or decreasing? C. Are more or fewer people showing up at auctions? D. Are more or fewer people attending open homes? E. How do you feel prices are generally changing at the moment? F. Do you think FOMO is in play for buyers? G. Are you noticing more or fewer first home buyers in the market? H. Are you noticing more or fewer investors in the market? I. Are you receiving more or fewer enquiries from offshore? J. Are investors bringing more or fewer properties to the market to sell than three months ago? REGIONAL RESULTS
The following table breaks down answers to the numerical questions above by region. No results are presented for regions with fewer than 7 responses as the sample size is too small for good statistical validity of results. The three top of the South Island regions are amalgamated into one and Gisborne is joined with Hawke’s Bay. Best use of the table is achieved by picking a variable and comparing a region’s outcome with the national result shown in bold in the bottom line. For instance, nationwide a net 55% of agents say that they are receiving fewer enquiries from offshore. But for Queenstown, the result is zero. Note the high perceptions of falling prices in Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, Wellington and Manawatu-Wanganui, but less so in Canterbury and Southland.
The table shows net percentages apart from the FOMO question in column F. The net percent is calculated as the percentage of responses saying a thing will go up less than the percentage saying it will go down.
7 A #obs B Appraisals C Auctions D Open H. E Prices F FOMO G FHBs H Invest. I O/seas J Inv.selling Northland 27 -19 -48 -26 -48 4 -33 -48 -48 -30 Auckland 191 -27 -54 -49 -71 4 -24 -57 -55 -22 Waikato 58 12 -57 -47 -59 0 -38 -57 -60 -16 Bay of Plenty 42 -2 -71 -57 -79 2 -38 -64 -55 -12 Hawke's Bay 22 41 -55 -36 -73 5 -41 -64 -55 5 Taranaki 9 0 -56 -89 -44 0 -78 -78 -56 -29 Manawatu-Wanganui 17 -35 -29 -59 -82 0 -65 -88 -53 -41 Wellington 48 -8 -27 -29 -83 8 -40 -65 -67 4 Nelson/Tasman 30 7 -40 -40 -67 7 -37 -40 -43 3 Canterbury 56 -16 -55 -52 -48 2 -46 -63 -57 -18 Queenstown Lakes 11 -9 -45 -18 -27 0 -27 -36 0 -27 Otago exc. Q'town 17 -41 -59 -71 -65 0 -47 -88 -53 -24 Southland 9 -33 -67 -78 -33 11 -56 -56 -78 -22 New Zealand 541 -13 -51 -47 -66 4 -36 -60 -55 -17
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