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SOURCE: NRC (2007c), based on information from NASA and NOAA websites for mission durations. Enhanced integrated assessment capability, including improved representation of diverse elements of the coupled human-environment system in integrated assessment models, promises benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as well as for supporting decision making. Another is that, beyond the character of the innovation itself, it is essential to understand the role of the decision and institutional environment in fostering or constraining its adoption (Lemos, 2008; Rayner et al., 2005). Many of these concepts and research needs also emerge from the next two themes in this chapter. End with a strong conclusion that restates your thesis in a different wording and sums up what the reader should take away from the essay. A coordinated strategy for promoting and integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among these disciplines and activities. Finally, additional paleoclimate data from ice cores, corals, and ocean sediments would be valuable for testing models and improving our understanding of the impacts of sea level rise. Finally, as discussed in Chapter 10, there are a number of potential options for reducing GHG emissions from the agricultural, fisheries, and aquaculture sectors through new technologies or management strategies. While scientific research alone cannot determine what actions should be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist, and support those who must make these important decisions. For example, many of the conclusions and research recommendations in Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (NRC, 2003b) and Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (NRC, 2005d), such as those highlighted in the following two paragraphs, remain highly relevant today. For example, nuclear reactors or hydroelectric systems produce relatively few GHG emissions but have other environmental impacts (see, e.g., NRC, 2009d; NRC, 2009f), and it is not clear how to weight trade-offs across different types of impacts (but see Huijbregts et al., 2008). Finally, LCA is not familiar to most consumers and policy makers so its ultimate contribution to better decision making will depend on processes that encourage its use. Creating a personal classroom management plan requires careful consideration of how you envision your classroom culture fr. IAV assessments can aid in vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the sort described in Theme 3 above. A variety of efforts are under way to develop alternative indicators of both human well-being and of human impact on the environment that may help monitor social and environmental change and the link between them (Frey, 2008; Hecht, 2005; Krueger, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; Wackernagel et al., 2002; World Bank, 2006). Similar difficulties could be in store for “smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will allow households to manage energy use to save money and reduce emissions, but which are often designed mainly for the information needs of utility companies rather than consumers. As noted in Chapters 2 and 6, some of these feedbacks have the potential to dramatically accelerate global warming (e.g., the possibility that the current warming of permafrost in high-latitude regions will lead to melting of frozen soils and release huge amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 into the atmosphere). It will also require pursuing multiple emissions-reduction strategies across a range of sectors, as well as continued research and development aimed at creating new emissions-reduction opportunities. These can all be evaluated through scientific research efforts (NRC, 2010d; Oldenburg et al., 2009). For example, research will be needed to improve understanding and analysis of the credibility and effectiveness of specific approaches, including positive and negative unintended consequences. Global Climate Change and Climate Protection: Current Summary. Third, people commonly use analogies, associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate change, and these simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to achieving this capability is the lack of comprehensive, robust, and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system and other related human and environmental systems. Other scientific and technical challenges. Successful application of seasonal climate forecasting tends to follow a systems approach where forecasts are contextualized to the decision situation and embedded within an array of other information relevant for risk management. Develop at least three support paragraphs about your perspective. In addition to improved computational resources and improved understanding of human and environmental systems, integrated assessment modeling
would also benefit from model intercomparison and assessment techniques similar to those employed in models that focus on Earth system processes. Improved understanding of forcings, feedbacks, and natural variability on regional scales is also needed. Often referred to as reanalysis, the fundamental idea behind such efforts (see, e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996) is to use data assimilation methods to capitalize on the wealth of disparate historical observations and integrate them with newer observations, such as space-based data. Chapter 5 discusses how this broader, more integrated climate change research enterprise might be formulated, organized, and conducted, and provides recommendations for the new era of climate change research. Your essay must be focused, must have clear and relevant details, must be well researched (with good, credible sources and accurate documentation), and must be well presented and persuasive. Finally, a research enterprise that includes the development, testing, and implementation of improved risk assessment approaches and decision-support systems will enhance the capacity of decision makers in the coastal zone as well as other sectors to respond effectively to climate change. The base in fundamental science for designing more effective decision-support systems lies in the decision sciences and related fields of scholarship, including cognitive science, communications research, and the full array of traditional social and behavioral science disciplines. If validated against in situ measurements, such measures can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ measures of human variables.
While some research has focused on useful outputs for decision making and adaptation planning (Luers et al., 2003; Moss et al., 2002; Polsky et al., 2007. Research is needed on processes for providing decision support, including the operation of networks and intermediaries between the producers and users of information for decision support. Several of the themes in this chapter represent new or understudied elements of climate change science, while others represent established research programs. Progress in all seven themes is needed (either iteratively or concurrently) because they are synergistic. In addition to directly supporting research on the Earth system and specific decision-making needs, these observations are critical for calibrating and validating satellite measurements and for developing and testing climate and Earth system model parameterizations. To make decisions about climate change, a basic understanding of the processes of climate change and of how to evaluate the associated risks and potential benefits would be helpful for most audiences. Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released. For example, U.S. households could significantly reduce their GHG emissions (and save money) by adopting more energy-efficient driving behaviors and by properly maintaining automobiles and home heating and cooling systems (Dietz et al., 2009b). Research on behavioral change suggests that a good portion of this potential could actually be achieved, but further analysis is needed to develop and assess specific strategies, approaches, and incentives. These and other examples of research needs for supporting actions to limit climate change are listed in Table 4.4. The challenge of limiting climate change also engages many of the other research themes identified in this chapter. A better understanding of the dependence of ocean heat uptake on vertical mixing and the abrupt changes in polar reflectivity that follow the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic are some of the most critical improvements needed in ocean and Earth system models. Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to improved data sets for analyses of climate change. Given the global scope of satellite observations and the expense of designing, launching, and operating satellites, the decadal survey (NRC, 2007c) and other reviews call for international coordination as a key component of the nation’s satellite observation strategy. Around two-thirds of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Glaciers may be lost by 2100. These systems should link existing data on physical, ecological, social, economic, and health variables to each other and develop new data and key indicators as needed” for estimating climate change vulnerabilities and informing responses intended to limit and adapt to climate change. Research investments in the behavioral and social sciences would expand this knowledge base, but such investments have been lacking in the past (e.g., NRC, 1990a, 1999a, 2003a, 2004b, 2005a, 2007f, 2009k). In the following sections, the seven integrative, crosscutting research themes identified by the panel are discussed in detail. If validated against in situ measurements, such measures can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ measures of human variables. Begin with a strong introduction that engages your reader and provides a clear thesis at the end of the introduction. However, the development of each report included input from and interactions with members of all five study groups; the membership of each group is listed in Appendix A. Land that is not covered in ice absorbs the light from the sun making the earth warmer. They can also either encourage or help us avoid situations where individual actions lead to outcomes that are undesirable for both the individual and the group (sometimes called “the tragedy of the commons”). SEC 455 Grand Canyon University Personal Classroom Management Plan Paper. These analyses can then be used by decision makers to help decide where, how much, and in what ways to intervene in human or environmental systems to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience, or improve efficient resource management (Eakin et al., 2009; Turner, 2009). Identification of differences in vulnerability across space and time is both a pivotal research issue and a critical way in which scientific research can provide input to decision makers as they make plans to adapt to climate. In addition, the construction of channels and levees and other changes in the lower delta have affected vegetation, especially the health of cypress swamps. Our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate. Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to improved data sets for analyses of climate change. Institutions shape incentives and the flow of information. In
addition, a variety of institutional factors such as distributed responsibility across many different entities complicate the development of a robust and integrated climate observing system. Format your paper according to MLA style (Links to an external site.). Improved understanding of natural variability modes is also critical for improving regional climate projections, especially on decadal time scales.
It can also inform the design and implementation of national and international climate policies (see Chapter 17 ). For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in temperature, moisture, CO 2, ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. A refutation paragraph that cites another perspective on your topic and offers a rebuttal with textual evidence. Although adoption of and resistance to innovation, especially in new technologies, have been extensively studied (e.g., Stern et al., 2009), much of this research has been technology specific. We thought of ways to prevent climate change and created a poster using the iPads. Research is needed to
understand how rapidly species and ecosystems can or cannot adjust in response to climate-related changes and to understand the implications of such adjustments for ecosystem services. Of particular concern are water resources for agriculture, which are influenced at regional scales by competition from other uses as well as by changing frequency and intensity of rainfall. One of the major contributions the social sciences can make to advancing the science of climate change is in the understanding, development, assessment, and improvement of these decision-making processes. The paleoclimate record indicates that such abrupt changes have occurred in the past, but our ability to predict future abrupt changes is constrained by our limited understand-. Global Climate Change and Climate Protection: Current Summary. For example, widespread adoption of batteries and fuel cells would switch the main source of transportation energy from petroleum to electricity, but this switch will only result in significant GHG emissions reductions if the electricity sector can provide low- and no-GHG electricity on a large scale. An emphasis on climate and weather is evident, as is a decline in the number of missions near the end of the decade. LCA has been used to examine the GHG emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other technolo-. Scientific research can, for example, help identify the information that decision makers need, devise effective and broadly acceptable decision-making processes and decision-support mechanisms, and enhance learning from experience. LCA has been used to examine the GHG emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other technolo-. Numerous decisions about climate change, including setting emissions targets and developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest on understanding how the Earth system will respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other climate forcings. Until recently, there has been relatively little research focused on the development and implementation of climate-friendly energy sources or land use practices, socioeconomic and behavioral processes that affect responses, adaptation strategies, analytical approaches to evaluate trade-offs and unintended consequences of actions, policy mechanisms, and other response issues. Ice dynamics and thermal expansion are the main drivers of rising sea levels on a global basis, but ocean dynamics and coastal processes lead to substantial spatial variability in local and regional rates of sea level rise (see Chapters 2 and 7 ). Note: You must make a comment to enable your classmate to see your feedback. Third, people commonly use analogies, associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate change, and these simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. However, as noted in Chapter 7, precise projections are not easy to provide. As explored in the companion report Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), there is still much to be learned about the best ways of deploying science to support decision making. Register for a free account to start saving and receiving special member only perks. This corresponds with the number of ice ages throughout the earth’s history and has had effects on seasonality and the distribution of energy over the earth’s surface. For example, in 2000, the coastal counties of California were home to 77 percent of the state’s residents, 81 percent of jobs, and 86 percent of the state’s gross product which represents nearly 19 percent of the total U.S. economy (Kildow and Colgan, 2005). A number of climate and climate-related processes have the potential to damage human and environmental systems in the coastal zone, including sea level rise; saltwater intrusion; storm surge and damages from flooding, inundation, and erosion; changes in the number and strength of coastal storms; and overall changes in precipitation amounts and intensity. Meeting this expanded set of research requirements will require changes in the way climate change research is supported, organized, and conducted. Create an interesting title that captures the interest of your reader and focuses your
essay. Our report covers a great deal of scientific territory and has been accomplished over a relatively short time period. An additional and valuable role of integrated assessment activities is to help decision makers deal with uncertainty.
An emphasis on climate and weather is evident, as is a decline in the number of missions near the end of the decade. The recommendations in Chapter 5 provide advice on some steps that can be taken to address these challenges. Begin with a strong introduction that engages your reader and provides a clear thesis at the end of the introduction. They can advise you on scales, time scales and marking criteria. The aim of these approaches is not to overcome or reduce uncertainty. End with a strong conclusion that restates your thesis in a different wording and sums up what the reader should take away from the essay. The body of science reviewed by the Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change makes a compelling case that climate change is occurring and suggests that it threatens not just the environment and ecosystems of the world but the well-being of people today and in future generations. The utility and potential applications of LCA have been recognized by government agencies in the United States and around the world (EPA, 2010a; European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2010) and by the private sector. For example, in 2000, the coastal counties of California were home to 77 percent of the state’s residents, 81 percent of jobs, and 86 percent of the state’s gross product which represents nearly 19 percent of the total U.S. economy (Kildow and Colgan, 2005). The design and evaluation of such mechanisms requires collaboration across disciplines (including, for example, ecology and economics) and improvements in the ability to link incentives with trade-offs and synergies among multiple services (Jack et al., 2008). Valuation of goods and services that typically fall outside the realm of economic analysis remains a significant research challenge, although a number of approaches have been developed and applied (Farber et al., 2002). When trees are cut down, greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide is released into the atmosphere. These models are based on numerical representations of fundamental Earth system processes, such as the exchange of energy, moisture, and materials between the atmosphere and the underlying ocean or land surface. Your instructor will review your recommendation and assign a grade based on how well you met the criteria described above. Numerous decisions about climate change, including setting emissions targets and developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest on understanding how the Earth system will respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other climate forcings. Such efforts, often referred to as geoengineering approaches, encompass two very different categories of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM). Scientists are only beginning to understand how recent and longerterm trends in weather influence perceptions of climate change (Hamilton and Keim, 2009; Joireman et al., in press). It is also difficult to unambiguously attribute individual weather events to climate change, and climate change is easily displaced by events people perceive as exceptional or simply as more important at any one time (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009; Marx et al., 2007; Weber, 2006). For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in temperature, moisture, CO 2, ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. A variety of efforts are under way to develop alternative indicators of both human well-being and of human impact on the environment that may help monitor social and environmental change and the link between them (Frey, 2008; Hecht, 2005; Krueger, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; Wackernagel et al., 2002; World Bank, 2006). Rising temperatures, new precipitation patterns, and other changes are already affecting many aspects of human society and the natural world. Decisions based on knowledge from multiple disciplines are thus much more likely to be effective than decisions that rely on the perspective of a single discipline, and advances in the understanding of climate and related environmental decision making are likely to require collaboration across multiple social science disciplines (NRC, 1997a, 2002b). This paradigm currently has NASA developing and demonstrating new observational techniques and measurements deemed useful for prediction or other applications. Development of new fertilizers and fertilizer management strategies that reduce emissions of N 2 O is one area of interest one that may also yield benefits in terms of agricultural contributions to other forms of pollution. Step 3: Contact Sustainable UCL Arrange a meeting with
Sustainable UCL to ensure your project can make a valuable contribution to UCL. Scientific research, monitoring, and assessment activities can also assist in the ongoing evaluation of the effectiveness and unintended consequences of different actions or set of actions as they are taken which is critical for supporting adaptive risk management and iterative decision making (see Box 3.1 ). This section highlights some pressing research needs related to efforts to limit the magnitude of future climate change. This is a case of twins born prematurely at 26 weeks age of gestation. Changes in ocean circulations and heat transport are also connected to the rapid disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. A coordinated strategy for promoting and integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among these disciplines and activities. Such observational data are most useful when geocoded (linked to specific locations) and matched (aggregated or downscaled) to scales of interest to researchers and decision makers, and when human and environmental data are collected and archived in ways that facilitate linkages between these data. Likewise, in looking to the future, we emphasize the scientific advances that could help decision makers identify, evaluate, and implement effective actions to limit its magnitude and adapt to its impacts.