Table 18
GHG emission reduction and Power Sector details from the 2014 Impact assessment 2030
2050
2030 Reference
Scenario GHG 40
2050 Reference
Scenario GHG 40
GHG emission reduction in power generation
-47%
-57%
-73%
-98%
Gross Electricity Generation (TWh)
3664
3532
4339
5040
13%
12%
8%
10%
Oil Share
1%
1%
1%
0%
Gas share
20%
15%
17%
13%
Solids share
Nuclear share
22%
23%
21%
22%
Renewables share
45%
49%
52%
54%
of which hydro share
11%
11%
10%
9%
of which wind share
21%
24%
25%
27%
of which solar, tidal etc. share
6%
6%
8%
10%
of which biomass and waste share
7%
8%
8%
9%
0,5%
0,8%
7%
15%
Share electricity from CCS CHP indicator (share electricity from CHP)
16%
16%
16%
14%
Carbon intensity Power Gen (per MWhe+MWhth
17.8
15.1
7.9
0.7
Source: EC (2014a).
C.3
CAPEX and OPEX towards 2050 The reference and GHG40 scenarios from the IA result in rather different investment expenditures. Table 19 depicts the CAPEX required for power generation and boilers of the various scenarios that meet the 2050 GHG objectives, along with several scenarios with additional energy efficiency measures as described in the IA. All of these show an increase of energy system costs compared to this reference scenario. The expenditures are given as annual averages without precise placement in time. The composition of system costs varies from scenario to scenario, but all show more pronounced capital costs than the reference scenario. This can be explained from the different impacts of the various RES and supply technologies. The generation costs of many conventional technologies are for a large share dominated by variable costs whereas the renewable technologies entail low variable costs but high capital costs (with the exception of bioenergy). The scenarios mostly require a lot of investments in wind and solar-PV.
Table 19
Average annual investment expenditures, as annuity (€bn/a), given for reference scenario and scenarios that are compatible with 2050 GHG objectives excluding investments in grids Timeframe
Reference 2013
Scenario with “carbon values”
Reference scenario
GHG40
GHG40EE
GHG40EERES30
GHG45EERES35
2011-2030
50
53
48
55
68
2031-2050
59
85
66
72
67
Source: Note:
80
June 2016
Scenarios with “concrete energy efficiency measures”
PRIMES/EC (2014a). Capital costs are expressed in annuity payments.
7.E75 – Investment challenges of a transition to a low-carbon economy in Europe