WORLD
L AWRENCE J OURNAL -W ORLD
Saturday, December 24, 2011
| 7A
France to pay for removal of risky implants PARIS (AP) — France took a costly and unprecedented leap Friday in offering to pay for 30,000 women to have their breast implants removed because of mounting fears the products could rupture and leak cheap, industrial-grade silicone into the body. Tens of thousands of other women elsewhere in Europe and in South America have the same French-made implants, but authorities there have so far refused to follow suit. The silicone-gel implants in question are not sold in the U.S. Over the past week, the safety fears have created a public furor over something usually kept private, even in France. Women, some whose own families didn’t know they had their breasts enlarged, marched on Paris to demand more attention to worries about what might be happening inside them. Images of leaky, blubbery implants and women having mammograms have been splashed on French TV. More than 1,000 ruptures pushed Health Minister Xavier Bertrand to recommend that the estimated 30,000 women in France with the implants get them removed at the state’s expense. Bertrand insisted the removals would be “preventive” and not urgent, and French health authorities said they had found nothing to link the implants to nine cases of cancer in women. The death last month of a woman who had
Christophe Ena/AP Photo
CHANTAL GUERIN, A 46-YEAROLD ACCOUNTANT and mother of three, displays a breast implant made by Poly Implant Prothese, or PIP, that was removed from her left breast, during an interview with The Associated Press in Paris. Guerin had her left breast removed after cancer and had PIP implants put in both breasts. the implants and developed a rare cancer — anaplastic large-cell lymphoma — had catalyzed worries. The implants, made by the now-defunct French company Poly Implant Prothese, were pulled from the market last year in countries around Europe and South America where they had been sold. The company’s website said it exported to more than 60 countries and was one of the world’s leading implant makers. International police agency Interpol put PIP’s former di-
rector, Jean-Claude Mas, on its most-wanted list, based on a warrant from Costa Rica for crimes involving “life and health.” Interpol’s website carries a photo of the 72-year-old Mas but no details about his alleged crimes or link to Costa Rica. Mas’ lawyer could not be reached for comment Friday. France’s health safety agency says the PIP implants appear to be more ruptureprone than other types. Also, investigators say PIP used industrial silicone instead of the medical variety to save money. However, the medical risks posed by industrial silicone are unclear. The financial burden of the French government’s decision falls on the state health care system, which estimated the removals could cost $78 million at a time when the country is teetering on the brink of another recession and struggling with debt. In recommending removal, the government noted the risks associated with major surgery and general anesthesia. Because of those risks, many women may decide against removal. The government said those women should be examined every six months. After the French decision, Britain’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency announced that it doesn’t see enough proof of cancer or an excessive risk of rupture to recommend women in Britain have the implants removed.
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BUSINESS AT A GLANCE
Pros see stocks up in 2012, but risks, too By Bernard Condon Associated Press
NEW YORK — The good news is that Wall Street experts think stock prices will rise more than 10 percent next year. The bad news is that they expected big gains in 2011 and got nearly zero instead. It’s forecasting time on Wall Street, and once again the pros are trying to predict the unpredictable. History suggests their target price for stocks by the end of 2012 will prove too high or too low. They might even get the direction wrong — predicting a gain when there’s a loss. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” In typical times, guessing where stocks will end up in a year is difficult. There are many assumptions about economic growth, inflation and consumer spending that go into the calculation. Now, forecasting has become nearly impossible. Big unknowns hang over the market as rarely before. Will the euro break up? Will China slow too sharply? Will squabbling in Washington scuttle the economic recovery? “Normally, you wonder, How will sales do? How are managements doing?” says Howard Silverblatt, senior
index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, which puts out its own forecasts. “Now there are so many high-level issues that affect the market.” Silverblatt’s firm says the S&P 500 index should rise to 1,400 by the end of 2012, up more than 10 percent from Friday’s close of 1,265. That figure is an average of expectations from investment strategists, economists and other big thinkers. More bullish yet are stock analysts focused on individual companies. Add up their price targets for each stock in the index, and they see it rising to 1,457, up 15 percent. There’s plenty of reason to think stocks will rise fast in the coming year. U.S. companies are generating record profits. Americans are spending more than expected and factories are producing more. The job market finally appears to be healing, too. The odds of the U.S. slipping into another recession have fallen since the summer, when the economy had slowed. Stocks seem attractively priced, too. The S&P 500 is trading at 12 times its expected earnings per share for 2012. It typically trades at 15 times, meaning stocks appear cheaper now. Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, says
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the S&P 500 could hit 1,500 by the end of 2012, a gain of more than 18 percent. Still, there is worry amid the bullishness. Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, expects the S&P to close next year at 1,350, up 6.7 percent from Friday’s close. He thinks the U.S. will avoid recession and U.S. companies will generate decent profits. What could wreck that prediction is a worse situation in Europe than he is expecting. If European leaders move too slowly to solve their government debt crisis, the region could fall into a deep recession and throw the U.S. into one, too. If Europe tanks, profits will drop sharply and push the S&P down to 1,000, he says. That would be a sharp drop of 21 percent from Friday’s close. The frightening part is that Hartnett gives this “bear” case four-in-10 odds. Similarly, Barry Knapp, strategist at Barclays Capital, predicts the S&P will rise to 1,330 next year. But he expects Europe’s struggles with its debt and Washington gridlock could lead investors to sell before they buy. He says the S&P could fall to 1,150 by the middle of the year before rising to his target.
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